{ "meta": { "date": "2026-10-27", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "status": "October27 pregame board; final dressing and deployment pending", "total": 505, "estimated": 500, "defaultSkaters": 394, "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupsStatus": "October27 reported charts; final deployment unconfirmed. Nashville has11 forwards and7 defensemen.", "shotChartStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "zoneFitNote": "Informational only: 60% player own current zone shares / 40% prior; raw opponent SOG/60 compared with each season league average blended 60/40 then shrunk once with ten current league-average games. Players without prior NHL games or recorded prior attempts use current-season shooting shares only; opponent defense retains its 60/40 blend. Other missing samples stay unavailable. Projections unchanged.", "teamStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "goalieStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "goaliesCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "statisticsRefreshedAt": "2026-10-27T19:40:32.657205+00:00", "reportReviewCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "builtAt": "2026-10-27T19:40:32.657205+00:00", "confirmedGoalies": 16, "teamDataRequirements": { "PHI": "2026-10-24", "CBJ": "2026-10-24", "CHI": "2026-10-25", "LAK": "2026-10-26", "CAR": "2026-10-24", "BOS": "2026-10-24", "WPG": "2026-10-25", "FLA": "2026-10-25", "NSH": "2026-10-25", "NYI": "2026-10-25", "DAL": "2026-10-25", "NJD": "2026-10-24", "STL": "2026-10-24", "MTL": "2026-10-25", "UTA": "2026-10-24", "MIN": "2026-10-25", "VGK": "2026-10-24", "OTT": "2026-10-24", "ANA": "2026-10-24", "VAN": "2026-10-25", "SJS": "2026-10-24", "BUF": "2026-10-24" }, "pendingStatisticalRefresh": {}, "statisticalCoverageNote": "Dated inputs through October26; all187 completed games included. Missing Winnipeg–Montreal25 and all three October26 games recovered from newer individual game exports and checked against NHL boxes.", "leagueUpdatePendingDate": null, "sogModelVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogModelDescription": "60% existing 50/50 position/chart + attempts SOG blend, plus 40% saved 2025–26 player SOG/game. Applied once; players without prior history retain the base blend. Model Goal remains separate.", "sogBlendUpdatedAt": "2026-10-27T19:40:33.536015+00:00", "h2hRestored": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "h2hIdentityResolutions": [], "h2hSource": "MoneyPuck published game-by-game skater/goalie files and regular-season shot archives", "h2hWindow": "Team H2H: 2024–25 through 2026–27 (cutoff 2026-10-26); goalie-team H2H: saved 2024–2026 files; player-goalie H2H: shot events from 2025–26 through 2026–27. Informational only; no projection formulas changed.", "performancePenaltyVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogBaseModelVersion": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "performancePenaltySettings": { "recentGames": 5, "recentWeight": 0.3, "playerShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 60, "5on4": 15 }, "defenseShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 100, "4on5": 30 }, "zonePriorShots": 30, "individualPenaltyCap": 0.1, "combinedStrengthPenaltyCap": 0.15 }, "pendingDataTeams": [], "performancePenaltyDescription": "Downward recent player attempts/min, recent positional/PK defensive allowance and volume-normalized recent zone shape; 15% combined cap per situation. Applied once before Goal probability. Provisional user-adopted settings, not independently calibrated.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-22", "factor": 0.98, "description": "User-selected 2% reduction to final away-player Model SOG. The locked Goal model derives expected goals from adjusted SOG, reducing goal intensity once by 2%; 1+ goal probability is recalculated. Independent of B2B status. No separate travel, fatigue or B2B penalty." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-25", "factor": 0.93, "topN": 30, "adopted": "User requested seven-percent reduction for top-30 SOG picks going forward.", "presentation": "Do not display model formulas, weights, adjustment explanations or conclusions. Preserve operational status, data coverage, source attribution and observed history.", "goalTreatment": "Recalculate Goal from final Model SOG through the existing locked estimator; no second reduction. Rebuild BTB after Goal.", "selection": "Freeze top30 membership from the full eligible unadjusted slate after performance and away adjustments, before filtering. Re-rank displayed final values normally.", "validation": "User-selected setting; one-week retrospective results do not establish out-of-sample accuracy.", "selectedIds": [ "8483445", "8481557", "8479420", "8478398", "8484801", "8478414", "8485366", "8481559", "8477960", "8480801", "8481540", "8477500", "8478864", "8478460", "8478550", "8480027", "8477956", "8482699", "8478403", "8480839", "8478493", "8484166", "8476887", "8484144", "8477933", "8484762", "8482097", "8480830", "8482093", "8478427" ], "selectedPlayers": [ { "id": "8483445", "team": "ANA" }, { "id": "8481557", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8479420", "team": "BUF" }, { "id": "8478398", "team": "WPG" }, { "id": "8484801", "team": "SJS" }, { "id": "8478414", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8485366", "team": "NYI" }, { "id": "8481559", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8477960", "team": "LAK" }, { "id": "8480801", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8481540", "team": "MTL" }, { "id": "8477500", "team": "NYI" }, { "id": "8478864", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8478460", "team": "CBJ" }, { "id": "8478550", "team": "LAK" }, { "id": "8480027", "team": "DAL" }, { "id": "8477956", "team": "BOS" }, { "id": "8482699", "team": "UTA" }, { "id": "8478403", "team": "VGK" }, { "id": "8480839", "team": "BUF" }, { "id": "8478493", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8484166", "team": "CBJ" }, { "id": "8476887", "team": "NSH" }, { "id": "8484144", "team": "CHI" }, { "id": "8477933", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8484762", "team": "ANA" }, { "id": "8482097", "team": "BUF" }, { "id": "8480830", "team": "CAR" }, { "id": "8482093", "team": "CAR" }, { "id": "8478427", "team": "CAR" } ], "selectionBasis": "Default eligible full-slate Model SOG ranking before this adjustment; filters never change membership." }, "goalModelVersion": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "goalModelDescription": "Current Model SOG × shot-weighted shooting percentage from current plus two prior seasons, regressed with 100 prior shots toward a forward/defense baseline excluding the player; confirmed-only goalie adjustment; Poisson 1+ goal probability. No additional PP or matchup boost.", "btb": { "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "date": "2026-10-27", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historyThrough": "2026-10-26", "comparisonPlayers": 394, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "notes": "Experimental ranking index, not probability. Individual metrics use all listed players; unit/exposure percentiles use comparable forward-line or defensive-pair groups. Raw ranks fixed before filtering. All players retained individually. Missing inputs neutral50; known no-PP role0 only where current PP-unit coverage is present. Goalie-neutral Goal baseline avoids counting the current goalie factor in both Goal model and Goalie groups. Correlated groups are capped, not claimed independent.", "samplePolicy": "Team H2H ratios use own observed SOG × regressed shooting baseline with 10-game prior, plus games/(games+10) confidence shrink. Player-goalie scoring uses50-shot prior plus shots/(shots+50) shrink. Exposure uses games/(games+5). iXG uses10-game .2 xG/game prior. These are provisional, not fitted.", "limits": "PP-unit statistics require verified exact-five production; no player/team fallback, allocated-minute estimate or PP-matchup projection is used. Missing PP-unit production is neutral. Exposure xGA describes overall unit allowance, not defenseman-specific shot allowance. Shift coverage is partial. Prior previews used different defender normalization and forecast-based H2H denominators; this audited revision supersedes those scores." } }, "players": [ { "id": "8470621", "name": "Corey Perry", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5694444444444444, "currentTOI": 11.496296296296297, "currentFiveTOI": 9.761111111111111, "ppShare": 0.250990099009901, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9388888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.794, "currentIXG": 0.08822222222222223, "priorTOI": 13.670833333333333, "priorPPTOI": 2.1312499999999996, "deploymentChange": -2.1745370370370356, "ppTOIChange": -1.192361111111111, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 14.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020860", "date": "20250205", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020676", "date": "20250111", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15171934496419445, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.19570867264952316, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19821593705800786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1777482557892803, "goalProbability": 0.17980727598967428, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2059020200393974, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2899388189140293, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.780876494023905, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.761111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.250990099009901, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0718418091809179, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 507.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2020.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.849028368642709, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.166177908113392, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.82800925925926, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4207089552238806, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9882576812401374, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1790422864702952, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9294130698983184, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9472502081345627, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.9933444259567388, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 14.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020860", "date": "20250205", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020676", "date": "20250111", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020036", "date": "20241012", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Andre Lee", "Samuel Helenius", "Corey Perry" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 5.968076215676504, "index": 105.9680762156765, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.694677871148457, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.053221288515408, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.450980392156865, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.361344537815126, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.739495798319325, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.700280112044819, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": -2.352897670056052, "index": 97.64710232994395, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.157894736842106, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.47368421052632, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.052631578947366, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.2105263157894735, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.968076215676504, "zonePPFit": -2.352897670056052, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1166666666666667, "attemptProjection": 1.1782877438496837, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5271.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.761111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.4444444444444444, "onNet": 0.5087223008015087, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 507.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0718418091809179, "projectedAttempts": 0.2536903690369037, "onNet": 0.48958446349137463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8628703129002457, "ppAdjusted": 0.06238467013570728, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1474772052581752, "baseline": 1.5694444444444444, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8470621", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.316264100932683, "adjustedSOG": 1.316264100932683, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.316264100932683, "adjustedSOG": 1.2899388189140293, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 228, "beforeSOG": 1.2899388189140293, "adjustedSOG": 1.2899388189140293 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 221.0, "goalExpected": 0.18450271122978676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18450271122978676, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16848231453916915, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853629078470613, "modelSOG": 1.2899388189140293, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 222.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16216216216216217, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15171934496419445, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.01111595372891, "btb": { "id": "8470621", "name": "Corey Perry", "score": 46.01111595372891, "components": { "Goal model": 64.52442159383034, "SOG model": 41.645244215938305, "Unit attack": 1.1904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 89.65517241379311, "Shot quality": 24.164524421593832, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 64.36965811965813, "Goalie H2H": 45.49151343705799 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7375680777283296, "unitPlayers": [ "Andre Lee", "Samuel Helenius", "Corey Perry" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 208 } }, { "id": "8473419", "name": "Brad Marchand", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.6538461538461537, "currentTOI": 11.383333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.1330232558139535, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1916666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.51, "currentIXG": 0.255, "priorTOI": 17.734935897435896, "priorPPTOI": 3.5730769230769233, "deploymentChange": -6.3516025641025635, "ppTOIChange": -2.3814102564102564, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020812", "date": "20250130", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020452", "date": "20241210", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1461177034506206, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.3915329233572171, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3938770195476501, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3239802067128297, "goalProbability": 0.32556300629293633, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1582799580106653, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.679572112831165, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.591474245115453, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1330232558139535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7263708010335918, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0086448480146264, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 143.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1075.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.273894436519258, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.68783638320775, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.132692307692308, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6989188325021082, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.114972286519221, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.591474245115453, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020812", "date": "20250130", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020452", "date": "20241210", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 138, "fitPct": 3.8324095506407048, "index": 103.8324095506407, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.246376811594203, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.217391304347824, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.7536231884058, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.405797101449277, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.63768115942029, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.73913043478261, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.8324095506407048, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7249999999999996, "attemptProjection": 2.850729321508412, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1126.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.383333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 3.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4870242699400258, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 143.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7263708010335918, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.787864660754206, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.787864660754206, "baseline": 2.6538461538461537, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8473419", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.734257257990985, "adjustedSOG": 2.734257257990985, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.734257257990985, "adjustedSOG": 2.679572112831165, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.679572112831165, "adjustedSOG": 2.679572112831165 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.3941160539423189, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3941160539423189, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32572420066520225, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853436407921212, "modelSOG": 2.679572112831165, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 52, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 337.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1513353115727003, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1461177034506206, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8473422", "name": "Nick Foligno", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9056603773584906, "currentTOI": 9.950000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 8.622222222222222, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.216, "currentIXG": 0.072, "priorTOI": 12.661949685534593, "priorPPTOI": 0.9924528301886792, "deploymentChange": -2.7119496855345915, "ppTOIChange": -0.9924528301886792, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020949", "date": "20260301", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020048", "date": "20251013", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021173", "date": "20250330", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020999", "date": "20250307", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12886328825350296, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.10103812040491826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10519664403323539, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09610142475059481, "goalProbability": 0.09985250345294885, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3751078702354041, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7840721882414923, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.958762886597938, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.622222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9585268420306895, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 828.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.426546985951862, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.7034220532319395, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.229874213836476, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.18809923049918334, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7670750998797831, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.958762886597938, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020949", "date": "20260301", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020048", "date": "20251013", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021173", "date": "20250330", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020999", "date": "20250307", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020929", "date": "20250225", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020005", "date": "20241008", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": -7.7641633373405625, "index": 92.23583666265944, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.037735849056602, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.35849056603774, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.301886792452832, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.528301886792454, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 22.264150943396224, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.7641633373405625, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 0.6190077503131974, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1552.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.622222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.5140811738255828, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7345038751565987, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7345038751565987, "baseline": 0.9056603773584906, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8473422", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020949", "date": "20260301", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8029664760373554, "adjustedSOG": 0.8000736614709105, "reductionPct": 0.36026592053020057, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7345038751565987, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7345038751565987, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7296825175458572, "afterRecentZones": 0.7345038751565987, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7296825175458572, "adjusted": 0.7296825175458572, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.7670750998797831, "newChartFactor": 0.7662388873396984, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 25.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8000736614709105, "adjustedSOG": 0.7840721882414923, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7840721882414923, "adjustedSOG": 0.7840721882414923 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.11839118409021464, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11839118409021464, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11165152315471416, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860138504643254, "modelSOG": 0.7840721882414923, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 53, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12903225806451613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12886328825350296, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8473512", "name": "Claude Giroux", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.6829268292682926, "currentTOI": 17.22222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 12.752777777777778, "ppShare": 0.42300236915787204, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.727777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.905, "currentIXG": 0.15875, "priorTOI": 16.302235772357722, "priorPPTOI": 2.0853658536585367, "deploymentChange": 0.9199864498644992, "ppTOIChange": 0.6424119241192412, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11161855046230704, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 293.0, "goalExpected": 0.15525028364247026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15833419136027166, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1437991424049739, "goalProbability": 0.146435519576311, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26363771713371065, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3909003745295672, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.09692877368765, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.8329938900203666, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.752777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42300236915787204, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0154752306109187, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.0123300586459183, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1964.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.141165740537437, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.070175438596491, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.033943089430894, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4220728466468657, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9974150351724723, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8179426605164154, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.3636733035351485, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.9661387220098308, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Fabian Zetterlund", "Tim Stützle", "Claude Giroux" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -6.068577982786152, "index": 93.93142201721385, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.04225352112676, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.295774647887324, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.549295774647888, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.690140845070423, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.507042253521126, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.91549295774648, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 27.573398613255762, "index": 127.57339861325576, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 78.28571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.068577982786152, "zonePPFit": 27.573398613255762, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.241641780844613, "attemptProjection": 1.2813965784513974, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9182.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.752777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 2.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.5141824993310141, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1964.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.0154752306109187, "projectedAttempts": 0.12314512610657342, "onNet": 0.5088152327221439, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9450564290800689, "ppAdjusted": 0.06646275056793628, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2615191796480052, "baseline": 1.6829268292682926, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8473512", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4300822394961203, "adjustedSOG": 1.419286096458742, "reductionPct": 0.7549316213578239, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9450564290800689, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9450564290800689, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9343665754066162, "afterRecentZones": 0.9450564290800689, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9343665754066162, "adjusted": 0.9343665754066162, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9779426813429017, "oldChartFactor": 0.8179426605164154, "newChartFactor": 0.8179426605164154, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.344081974069427, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8985160168770259, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06646275056793628, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05981647551114266, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06573225834713914, "afterRecentZones": 0.06646275056793628, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06573225834713914, "adjusted": 0.05915903251242523, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.419286096458742, "adjustedSOG": 1.3909003745295672, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 194, "beforeSOG": 1.3909003745295672, "adjustedSOG": 1.3909003745295672 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.16332117370480653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15801115457871204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1506816341209064, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4521891807906686 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286609033168666, "modelSOG": 1.3909003745295672, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 293.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10580204778156997, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11161855046230704, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.249585046029104, "btb": { "id": "8473512", "name": "Claude Giroux", "score": 52.249585046029104, "components": { "Goal model": 53.2133676092545, "SOG model": 50.38560411311054, "Unit attack": 82.14285714285714, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 49.61439588688946, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 56.06430606430606, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2592030077991474, "unitPlayers": [ "Fabian Zetterlund", "Tim Stützle", "Claude Giroux" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 150 } }, { "id": "8473533", "name": "Jordan Staal", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.4266666666666667, "currentTOI": 15.56111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.866666666666667, "ppShare": 0.22202407489968792, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3833333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9560000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.15933333333333335, "priorTOI": 16.187555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 0.7744444444444445, "deploymentChange": -0.626444444444445, "ppTOIChange": 0.608888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14330014744386554, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.16019803666653998, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15291650317458824, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14802495004036162, "goalProbability": 0.1417986240896402, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6226325950721423, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1179195522411711, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.601226993865031, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.228915662650603, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.866666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22202407489968792, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1446455925557575, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 498.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2243.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.177766474312876, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.527977044476327, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.669555555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17527009331750953, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0943486346853046, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9228176747755775, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1084321906757981, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9329780020339787, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.601226993865031, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.228915662650603, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 3.1449544895101553, "index": 103.14495448951016, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.785714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.07142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7142857142857144, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -2.5727441741474166, "index": 97.42725582585258, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 41.42857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.1449544895101553, "zonePPFit": -2.5727441741474166, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0523596558418402, "attemptProjection": 0.8425658434105648, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3912.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.866666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5260866015295431, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 498.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1446455925557575, "projectedAttempts": 0.2758182150736765, "onNet": 0.5196963185790001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8100527579502597, "ppAdjusted": 0.13740999167594295, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9474627496262025, "baseline": 1.4266666666666667, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8473533", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1391443164423882, "adjustedSOG": 1.1179195522411711, "reductionPct": 1.8632199533333282, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8100527579502597, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8100527579502597, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7804377661669745, "afterRecentZones": 0.8087748024707826, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7792065318925705, "adjusted": 0.7792065318925705, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 1.0943486346853046, "newChartFactor": 1.0913205115125884, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.11666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2048044348629503, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13740999167594295, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13740999167594295, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13288161073160362, "afterRecentZones": 0.13740999167594295, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13288161073160362, "adjusted": 0.13288161073160362, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 0.9228176747755775, "newChartFactor": 0.9228176747755775, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2146341463414636, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1179195522411711, "adjustedSOG": 1.1179195522411711, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1179195522411711, "adjustedSOG": 1.1179195522411711 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.14376073608025458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1406751994912784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13390505145732334, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26764947410109485 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856047182036973, "modelSOG": 1.1179195522411711, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 75, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 220.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14330014744386554, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8473986", "name": "Alex Killorn", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.8181818181818181, "priorSOG": 1.8048780487804879, "currentTOI": 15.989393939393938, "currentFiveTOI": 11.825757575757576, "ppShare": 0.17143819467834287, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7712121212121211, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.829, "currentIXG": 0.16627272727272727, "priorTOI": 16.704878048780486, "priorPPTOI": 1.4353658536585365, "deploymentChange": -0.7154841093865478, "ppTOIChange": -0.6641537324464154, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.2 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12154900700070854, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 302.0, "goalExpected": 0.23016868612426025, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23016868612426025, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2056004129870722, "goalProbability": 0.2056004129870722, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8936286836380205, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.918641896220372, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.825757575757576, "Current_PP_Share": 0.17143819467834287, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8063989115184804, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0308143473586933, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 509.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.846974630089294, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.078164825828377, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.610162601626016, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2741161674973217, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.769384923693541, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikita Nesterenko", "Roger McQueen", "Alex Killorn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 171, "fitPct": 12.798277169806994, "index": 112.798277169807, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.094098883572567, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.18607123870282, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.9973418394471, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.26368952684742, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.328017012227539, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.130781499202552, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.798277169806994, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0227272727272725, "attemptProjection": 1.8828642743588122, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7805.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.825757575757576, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.5163686154101489, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 509.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8063989115184804, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.498250318997588, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9527957735430423, "baseline": 1.8048780487804879, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8473986", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8936286836380205, "adjustedSOG": 1.8936286836380205, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8936286836380205, "adjustedSOG": 1.8936286836380205, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 97, "beforeSOG": 1.8936286836380205, "adjustedSOG": 1.8936286836380205 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.22435520378421686, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2166372994238347, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20096873497242784, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6190705792426698 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862700814284833, "modelSOG": 1.8936286836380205, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 302.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11920529801324503, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12154900700070854, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.501237567218716, "btb": { "id": "8473986", "name": "Alex Killorn", "score": 53.501237567218716, "components": { "Goal model": 73.7789203084833, "SOG model": 75.32133676092545, "Unit attack": 34.523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.47043701799486, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.199746755302314, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.264949898733506, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikita Nesterenko", "Roger McQueen", "Alex Killorn" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 137 } }, { "id": "8473994", "name": "Jamie Benn", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 12.603030303030302, "currentFiveTOI": 11.922727272727274, "ppShare": 0.14350243224461431, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6257575757575758, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.348, "currentIXG": 0.12254545454545455, "priorTOI": 13.289166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.4158333333333333, "deploymentChange": -0.6861363636363649, "ppTOIChange": -0.7900757575757574, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1388769931892912, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.16302741745126365, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16302741745126365, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15043210489108913, "goalProbability": 0.15043210489108913, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1738979488780772, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.404879908501716, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.922727272727274, "Current_PP_Share": 0.14350243224461431, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6203218775664918, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0126724991491074, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 413.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.6393185823379675, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.94408475573867, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.348888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2931134600171679, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9388981467454425, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8917120926071865, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9842926687889666, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9622197309349052, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.56013456686291, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jamie Benn", "Arttu Hyry", "Dylan Hryckowian" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": -3.6095969130937817, "index": 96.39040308690622, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.376623376623375, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.441558441558444, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.064935064935067, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.597402597402596, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.298701298701298, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.220779220779221, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": -0.5235777070344483, "index": 99.47642229296555, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 70.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.6095969130937817, "zonePPFit": -0.5235777070344483, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1685328476959154, "attemptProjection": 1.1779970509350681, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7869.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.922727272727274, "projectedAttempts": 2.545454545454546, "onNet": 0.5006346788525006, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 413.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6203218775664918, "projectedAttempts": 0.09011940109924822, "onNet": 0.5187920019912056, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1078312862278343, "ppAdjusted": 0.06543366308765747, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1732649493154916, "baseline": 1.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8473994", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.183958969589295, "adjustedSOG": 1.1738979488780772, "reductionPct": 0.8497778191340344, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1078312862278343, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1078312862278343, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0930514770396782, "afterRecentZones": 1.1078312862278343, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0930514770396782, "adjusted": 1.0930514770396782, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.973929739724079, "oldChartFactor": 0.8917120926071865, "newChartFactor": 0.8880653255962281, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0050795834152093, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8785529715762274, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06543366308765747, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06543366308765747, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06344510442378394, "afterRecentZones": 0.06543366308765747, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06344510442378393, "adjusted": 0.06344510442378393, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.9842926687889666, "newChartFactor": 0.9842926687889666, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.333333333333333, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1738979488780772, "adjustedSOG": 1.1738979488780772, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 256, "beforeSOG": 1.1738979488780772, "adjustedSOG": 1.1738979488780772 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.17433490803062568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17433490803062568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15998447740069077, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857268800141056, "modelSOG": 1.1738979488780772, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14349775784753363, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1388769931892912, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.992540213974486, "btb": { "id": "8473994", "name": "Jamie Benn", "score": 47.992540213974486, "components": { "Goal model": 54.75578406169666, "SOG model": 34.447300771208226, "Unit attack": 48.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 62.06896551724138, "Shot quality": 37.275064267352185, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 36.691086691086696, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.43188422230703, "unitPlayers": [ "Jamie Benn", "Arttu Hyry", "Dylan Hryckowian" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 195 } }, { "id": "8474013", "name": "Ian Cole", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.7560975609756098, "currentTOI": 16.874242424242425, "currentFiveTOI": 13.962121212121213, "ppShare": 0.007051282051282051, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.346, "currentIXG": 0.03145454545454545, "priorTOI": 18.26890243902439, "priorPPTOI": 0.0225609756097561, "deploymentChange": -1.3946600147819659, "ppTOIChange": 0.010772357723577233, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021164", "date": "20260328", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021118", "date": "20260322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020462", "date": "20251208", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021202", "date": "20250403", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020904", "date": "20250222", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04184328645254343, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 134.0, "goalExpected": 0.024817873491093528, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024817873491093528, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02451244200575898, "goalProbability": 0.02451244200575898, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5931148242679438, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.344004340748779, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.962121212121213, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007051282051282051, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0316741452991453, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8671079010243594, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.802032520325204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004737435127014478, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0312677686474556, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0443632323763121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.546869472939512, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021164", "date": "20260328", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021118", "date": "20260322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020462", "date": "20251208", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021202", "date": "20250403", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020904", "date": "20250222", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020124", "date": "20241026", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": 1.0422589549151837, "index": 101.04225895491518, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.2037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.351851851851851, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.592592592592593, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.888888888888891, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8518518518518516, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.0422589549151837, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5696526722052612, "attemptProjection": 0.39926666072040506, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9215.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.962121212121213, "projectedAttempts": 0.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.4326093252244425, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0316741452991453, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4844596664628331, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4844596664628331, "baseline": 0.7560975609756098, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8474013", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5931148242679438, "adjustedSOG": 0.5931148242679438, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5931148242679438, "adjustedSOG": 0.5931148242679438, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 376, "beforeSOG": 0.5931148242679438, "adjustedSOG": 0.5931148242679438 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 134.0, "goalExpected": 0.024115449291379494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024908477108192814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023826995229485518, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07738254736878031 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791329029895161, "modelSOG": 0.5931148242679438, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 134.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.029850746268656716, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04184328645254343, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 26.29036278096368, "btb": { "id": "8474013", "name": "Ian Cole", "score": 26.29036278096368, "components": { "Goal model": 2.3136246786632393, "SOG model": 3.5989717223650386, "Unit attack": 17.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 4.113110539845758, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.784188034188034, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0058429515601124, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 384 } }, { "id": "8474141", "name": "Patrick Kane", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 2.5223880597014925, "currentTOI": 19.665151515151514, "currentFiveTOI": 14.760606060606062, "ppShare": 0.7448717948717949, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5212121212121215, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.474, "currentIXG": 0.22490909090909092, "priorTOI": 17.695273631840795, "priorPPTOI": 3.0432835820895523, "deploymentChange": 1.9698778833107191, "ppTOIChange": 0.47792853912256916, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020833", "date": "20260127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020282", "date": "20241116", "team": "DET", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10939373852007596, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.2455645929579938, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2455645929579938, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21773724650259968, "goalProbability": 0.21773724650259968, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.2447774093846125, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.173475672346541, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.74526678141136, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.760606060606062, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7448717948717949, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.345941530691531, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9811709781784709, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2324.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.693827337871087, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.710642471799902, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.85099502487562, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5743938875331104, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9465399610136453, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.024637915957654, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2277028761242523, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9698607330236606, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.121470781352594, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.457276022786121, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020833", "date": "20260127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020282", "date": "20241116", "team": "DET", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 176, "fitPct": 0.8212638652551334, "index": 100.82126386525513, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.065656565656564, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.161616161616163, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.191919191919194, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.893939393939394, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.606060606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.080808080808081, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 7.590095870808412, "index": 107.59009587080841, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.066666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 56.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8212638652551334, "zonePPFit": 7.590095870808412, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9128945751303468, "attemptProjection": 2.206512709883038, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9742.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.760606060606062, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.4704759632589765, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2324.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.345941530691531, "projectedAttempts": 1.1229924242424243, "onNet": 0.483466541294468, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3336385044081065, "ppAdjusted": 0.5442469562804041, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0597036425066926, "baseline": 2.5223880597014925, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8474141", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2447774093846125, "adjustedSOG": 2.2447774093846125, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.2447774093846125, "adjustedSOG": 2.2447774093846125, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 58, "beforeSOG": 2.2447774093846125, "adjustedSOG": 2.2447774093846125 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 363.0, "goalExpected": 0.2191247451943578, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22633058308655807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19677848612010565, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5767080741892833 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286808841183532, "modelSOG": 2.2447774093846125, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 67, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 365.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10410958904109589, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10939373852007596, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.62920196532022, "btb": { "id": "8474141", "name": "Patrick Kane", "score": 54.62920196532022, "components": { "Goal model": 78.40616966580977, "SOG model": 85.34704370179949, "Unit attack": 7.142857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 71.46529562982005, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.465337132003796, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9132710488371494, "unitPlayers": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 126 } }, { "id": "8474189", "name": "Lars Eller", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.9852941176470589, "currentTOI": 15.395833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.070833333333333, "ppShare": 0.13771270280965572, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.463, "currentIXG": 0.12191666666666667, "priorTOI": 11.447303921568627, "priorPPTOI": 0.4522058823529412, "deploymentChange": 3.9485294117647065, "ppTOIChange": 0.5144607843137254, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021135", "date": "20250325", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020831", "date": "20250201", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020088", "date": "20241020", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10236426828462623, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 182.0, "goalExpected": 0.10301128350309266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10362800905240464, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09788320561355075, "goalProbability": 0.09843939256413216, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.055618695058140544, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0063207135586354, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.709823108769289, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.070833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13771270280965572, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7519774316173209, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 0.9790227125446014, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 696.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.466970387243736, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.804878048780488, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.006617647058825, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09152534251978602, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9448621553884712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0801261639634907, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.138834210626342, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.020570335374025, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4403470715835143, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.992366412213741, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021135", "date": "20250325", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020831", "date": "20250201", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020088", "date": "20241020", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell", "Lars Eller" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": 2.670872132116358, "index": 102.67087213211636, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.96153846153846, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.96153846153846, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.230769230769232, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.73076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.115384615384616, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": 4.627807020878066, "index": 104.62780702087807, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 77.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.670872132116358, "zonePPFit": 4.627807020878066, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9093841411973433, "attemptProjection": 1.1997499385339094, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 7971.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.070833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.44356435643564357, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 696.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7519774316173209, "projectedAttempts": 0.2593025626266624, "onNet": 0.5084887426213237, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6564707600174748, "ppAdjusted": 0.1480962798481516, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0545670398656264, "baseline": 0.9852941176470589, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8474189", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0268578709781995, "adjustedSOG": 1.0268578709781995, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0268578709781995, "adjustedSOG": 1.0063207135586354, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 299, "beforeSOG": 1.0063207135586354, "adjustedSOG": 1.0063207135586354 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.09552594031609125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09552594031609125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09110521567012829, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866723656264598, "modelSOG": 1.0063207135586354, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 182.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08791208791208792, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10236426828462623, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.66018833188646, "btb": { "id": "8474189", "name": "Lars Eller", "score": 47.66018833188646, "components": { "Goal model": 34.19023136246787, "SOG model": 23.39331619537275, "Unit attack": 17.857142857142858, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 96.55172413793103, "Shot quality": 34.447300771208226, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 60.61801446416831, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.075866808088353, "unitPlayers": [ "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell", "Lars Eller" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 197 } }, { "id": "8474563", "name": "Drew Doughty", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.4027777777777777, "currentTOI": 21.035, "currentFiveTOI": 17.423333333333332, "ppShare": 0.2172, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.905, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.758, "currentIXG": 0.0758, "priorTOI": 23.086342592592594, "priorPPTOI": 1.5819444444444446, "deploymentChange": -2.0513425925925937, "ppTOIChange": -0.6769444444444446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.1 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.061165776992321924, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.08159657739912733, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08264192808081823, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07835630439546952, "goalProbability": 0.0793192418695852, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09629374741156743, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3340233936596615, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.09929213698106, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.259668508287293, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.423333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2172, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9275427272727271, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 543.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.385049365303244, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.202083333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.371171368801226, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1411331705455836, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0493652474819433, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0695044875958077, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0273124032099115, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.430913348946136, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Edmundson", "Drew Doughty" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": 4.704439018186122, "index": 104.70443901818612, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 79.18644067796609, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 92 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.355932203389831, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.6779661016949153, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.016949152542374, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.745762711864407, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.016949152542373, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": 1.6455082493981052, "index": 101.6455082493981, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.07407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.444444444444446, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.704439018186122, "zonePPFit": 1.6455082493981052, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2542289744210025, "attemptProjection": 1.4128951914659797, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 10454.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.423333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.6, "onNet": 0.38100736201929675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 543.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9275427272727271, "projectedAttempts": 0.7174363636363635, "onNet": 0.40545808966861596, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0778390457908913, "ppAdjusted": 0.2557230371525997, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.333562082943491, "baseline": 1.4027777777777777, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474563", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3612483608772057, "adjustedSOG": 1.3612483608772057, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3612483608772057, "adjustedSOG": 1.3340233936596615, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 207, "beforeSOG": 1.3340233936596615, "adjustedSOG": 1.3340233936596615 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 157.0, "goalExpected": 0.07474730947496402, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07474730947496402, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07202205206092188, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057807704640190555, "modelSOG": 1.3340233936596615, "historyGames": 112, "seasonGames": { "2024": 30, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06329113924050633, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.061165776992321924, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 28.23960081875721, "btb": { "id": "8474563", "name": "Drew Doughty", "score": 28.23960081875721, "components": { "Goal model": 27.249357326478147, "SOG model": 47.04370179948586, "Unit attack": 21.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 19.02313624678663, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 40.36087369420703, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0906980512774833, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Edmundson", "Drew Doughty" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 370 } }, { "id": "8474564", "name": "Steven Stamkos", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 18.746969696969696, "currentFiveTOI": 14.13030303030303, "ppShare": 0.7434030937215651, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.713636363636364, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.0, "currentIXG": 0.36363636363636365, "priorTOI": 17.827439024390245, "priorPPTOI": 3.008943089430894, "deploymentChange": 0.9195306725794516, "ppTOIChange": 0.7046932742054697, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17661799621695873, "goalHistoryGoals": 76.0, "goalHistoryShots": 403.0, "goalExpected": 0.4165320528361193, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4165320528361193, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3406706209197932, "goalProbability": 0.3406706209197932, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.358378317940198, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.404246193437701, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.343941248470013, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.13030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7434030937215651, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9084980836573195, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.0122748750964923, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2451.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.280099598920515, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.077006214536611, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.63191056910569, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7451627841423885, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.033328283593395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.000962505991056, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8479196177469092, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0343228682570813, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.987300854306165, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.811731315042573, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Filip Forsberg" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 183, "fitPct": 0.03208353303520539, "index": 100.0320835330352, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.479052823315119, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.97632058287796, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.0856102003643, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.697632058287795, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.449908925318763, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360657, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -5.069346075103027, "index": 94.93065392489697, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.235294117647059, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.7647058823529416, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.08823529411765, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 62.911764705882355, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.03208353303520539, "zonePPFit": -5.069346075103027, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.086684174401256, "attemptProjection": 2.4249833894644435, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9326.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.13030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.9090909090909096, "onNet": 0.47268760227538376, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2451.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9084980836573195, "projectedAttempts": 1.5308682824606392, "onNet": 0.5011343380327338, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3260704052321137, "ppAdjusted": 0.5661270130643724, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.25583378193285, "baseline": 2.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474564", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.358378317940198, "adjustedSOG": 2.358378317940198, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.358378317940198, "adjustedSOG": 2.358378317940198, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 44, "beforeSOG": 2.358378317940198, "adjustedSOG": 2.358378317940198 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 399.0, "goalExpected": 0.3544318428352469, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3544318428352469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2984280668842056, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12838852097130243, "modelSOG": 2.358378317940198, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 76.0, "historyShots": 403.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18858560794044665, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17661799621695873, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.45811417059534, "btb": { "id": "8474564", "name": "Steven Stamkos", "score": 68.45811417059534, "components": { "Goal model": 96.91516709511568, "SOG model": 88.94601542416453, "Unit attack": 76.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.827586206896555, "Shot quality": 91.77377892030849, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.657305657305656, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0659335588582044, "unitPlayers": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Filip Forsberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 23 } }, { "id": "8474567", "name": "Zach Bogosian", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 0.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 17.093055555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 14.254166666666668, "ppShare": 0.010876519513755598, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04722222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.301, "currentIXG": 0.025083333333333332, "priorTOI": 14.544308943089431, "priorPPTOI": 0.036585365853658534, "deploymentChange": 2.5487466124661236, "ppTOIChange": 0.010636856368563687, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052613511534236546, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 124.0, "goalExpected": 0.04546287925480875, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04733403894023029, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04444492717001609, "goalProbability": 0.046231251529236954, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.17863243592208672, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8640913318478134, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.910844782227419, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.254166666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010876519513755598, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04581791946235324, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3126.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2376041729120453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.560162601626017, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006934011325551829, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8022804831447188, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.97713495692864, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -6.590650561842708, "index": 93.40934943815729, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 88.08673469387756, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.831632653061224, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.590650561842708, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.075, "attemptProjection": 0.8884764066501041, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 10263.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.254166666666668, "projectedAttempts": 1.916666666666667, "onNet": 0.4651583494995418, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 34.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04581791946235324, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8984048699917186, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.981738203325052, "baseline": 0.7317073170731707, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 41, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474567", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8817258488242994, "adjustedSOG": 0.8817258488242994, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8984048699917186, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8984048699917186, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8984048699917186, "afterRecentZones": 0.8984048699917186, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8984048699917186, "adjusted": 0.8984048699917186, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8022804831447188, "newChartFactor": 0.8022804831447188, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.63333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1109984844608027, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8817258488242994, "adjustedSOG": 0.8640913318478134, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 327, "beforeSOG": 0.8640913318478134, "adjustedSOG": 0.8640913318478134 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.053854755171529496, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053854755171529496, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.052430273890379166, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785426583668986, "modelSOG": 0.8640913318478134, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 41, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 124.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04838709677419355, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052613511534236546, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.730735933818444, "btb": { "id": "8474567", "name": "Zach Bogosian", "score": 28.730735933818444, "components": { "Goal model": 10.282776349614396, "SOG model": 16.195372750642672, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 1.0282776349614395, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 31.677350427350426, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8557217274431643, "unitPlayers": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 363 } }, { "id": "8474568", "name": "Luke Schenn", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7, "currentTOI": 13.351851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 11.755555555555555, "ppShare": 0.00811176205497972, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.21000000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.023333333333333334, "priorTOI": 13.664666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.0016666666666666666, "deploymentChange": -0.3128148148148142, "ppTOIChange": 0.03166666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020251", "date": "20251109", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021302", "date": "20250416", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.035751308171817556, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.024168147146339823, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023934789113187197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023878436097483496, "goalProbability": 0.023650623709321736, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.022781238816176053, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6760073514006786, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.402646502835539, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.755555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00811176205497972, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04053186561072997, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2219.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.291898842691813, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.665, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00034773758534413295, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9763484219909253, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.904026316658264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.202846975088968, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020251", "date": "20251109", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021302", "date": "20250416", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020787", "date": "20250125", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -0.7883859336358228, "index": 99.21161406636418, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.6923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.7692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3076923076923084, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.7883859336358228, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6026842111055093, "attemptProjection": 0.800250659593604, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6348.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.755555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.38171411049215515, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04053186561072997, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7014674353495567, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7014674353495567, "baseline": 0.7, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474568", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020251", "date": "20251109", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7008804612097339, "adjustedSOG": 0.6898034197966109, "reductionPct": 1.580446599125318, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7014674353495567, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6847912555965816, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7014674353495567, "afterRecentZones": 0.6996383971827336, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6996383971827336, "adjusted": 0.6830056996610182, "playerFactor": 0.9762267228489874, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9763484219909253, "newChartFactor": 0.9704223383304185, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8448229970721319, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6898034197966109, "adjustedSOG": 0.6760073514006786, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6760073514006786, "adjustedSOG": 0.6760073514006786 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 117.0, "goalExpected": 0.023447254516269497, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02396406064992716, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023174503556608394, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05046989810773214 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05793785181456226, "modelSOG": 0.6760073514006786, "historyGames": 135, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 50, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.01694915254237288, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.035751308171817556, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8474574", "name": "Tyler Myers", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 1.2054794520547945, "currentTOI": 15.381818181818181, "currentFiveTOI": 13.32121212121212, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.434, "currentIXG": 0.03945454545454546, "priorTOI": 19.517123287671232, "priorPPTOI": 0.08835616438356164, "deploymentChange": -4.135305105853051, "ppTOIChange": -0.08835616438356164, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020807", "date": "20260123", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020508", "date": "20251214", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021125", "date": "20250324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020159", "date": "20241030", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.045357533726055006, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 182.0, "goalExpected": 0.03872615170571252, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03872615170571252, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037985880996879946, "goalProbability": 0.037985880996879946, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8537975618252547, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8662420382165603, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.32121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.167596518634234, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.368949771689497, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018291970139831484, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9452899802444245, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8995616667632127, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8513756749807149, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020807", "date": "20260123", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020508", "date": "20251214", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021125", "date": "20250324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020159", "date": "20241030", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -1.823667325185852, "index": 98.17633267481415, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.8750000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.875, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.3125, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9375000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.823667325185852, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5724483333947717, "attemptProjection": 0.666237603283018, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 8792.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.32121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.37439665990925763, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6193429683388949, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6193429683388949, "baseline": 1.2054794520547945, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8474574", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8537975618252547, "adjustedSOG": 0.8537975618252547, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6193429683388949, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6193429683388949, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6193429683388949, "afterRecentZones": 0.6193429683388949, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6193429683388949, "adjusted": 0.6193429683388949, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9452899802444245, "newChartFactor": 0.9452899802444245, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.61666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1481054258167018, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8537975618252547, "adjustedSOG": 0.8537975618252547, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 331, "beforeSOG": 0.8537975618252547, "adjustedSOG": 0.8537975618252547 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.03411336066663088, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03411336066663088, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03353806034230856, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05790824510747514, "modelSOG": 0.8537975618252547, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 73, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 182.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.038461538461538464, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.045357533726055006, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 32.481708522839625, "btb": { "id": "8474574", "name": "Tyler Myers", "score": 32.481708522839625, "components": { "Goal model": 6.940874035989717, "SOG model": 15.167095115681233, "Unit attack": 75.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 7.197943444730077, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.43589743589744, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0460970341600193, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 340 } }, { "id": "8474600", "name": "Roman Josi", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 2.661764705882353, "currentTOI": 25.33030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 18.94090909090909, "ppShare": 0.7622080679405521, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8075757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.783, "currentIXG": 0.1620909090909091, "priorTOI": 24.877450980392158, "priorPPTOI": 3.0936274509803923, "deploymentChange": 0.45285204991087014, "ppTOIChange": 0.7139483065953653, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 29.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 4.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06283288377800897, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 358.0, "goalExpected": 0.15384750891635388, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15384750891635388, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14259724268127177, "goalProbability": 0.14259724268127177, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.4485189866488244, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.031677465802736, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.730202944687624, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.94090909090909, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7622080679405521, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.007366660232902, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.8181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2513.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.474760383386582, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.267786404690224, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.17892156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.766134810780978, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9704282757935262, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9172490996823919, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3765347885402455, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.617647058823529, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 29.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 168, "fitPct": -0.9857241402157939, "index": 99.0142758597842, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.24561403508772, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 91 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.0476190476190474, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.491228070175439, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.839598997493734, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.899749373433583, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4761904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -9.890758031780251, "index": 90.10924196821975, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.93617021276596, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.957446808510639, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9857241402157939, "zonePPFit": -9.890758031780251, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3108992732550213, "attemptProjection": 2.301811074397923, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 12501.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.94090909090909, "projectedAttempts": 2.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.4141043843105677, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2513.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.007366660232902, "projectedAttempts": 0.7654341412303196, "onNet": 0.4329501915708812, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1687961136064273, "ppAdjusted": 0.3193772420382267, "other": 0.8181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.3063551738264723, "baseline": 2.661764705882353, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474600", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4485189866488244, "adjustedSOG": 2.4485189866488244, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4485189866488244, "adjustedSOG": 2.4485189866488244, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 38, "beforeSOG": 2.4485189866488244, "adjustedSOG": 2.4485189866488244 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 354.0, "goalExpected": 0.14252256825171908, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14252256825171908, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13283201639391906, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05777460770328103, "modelSOG": 2.4485189866488244, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 358.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06424581005586592, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06283288377800897, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.621795589980486, "btb": { "id": "8474600", "name": "Roman Josi", "score": 55.621795589980486, "components": { "Goal model": 52.95629820051414, "SOG model": 90.48843187660668, "Unit attack": 76.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.827586206896555, "Shot quality": 51.15681233933162, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.009496676163344, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0609221869582806, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 116 } }, { "id": "8474716", "name": "Jared Spurgeon", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.139240506329114, "currentTOI": 21.712962962962962, "currentFiveTOI": 16.348148148148148, "ppShare": 0.18654434250764526, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7907407407407407, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.568, "currentIXG": 0.0631111111111111, "priorTOI": 19.591772151898734, "priorPPTOI": 1.440506329113924, "deploymentChange": 2.1211908110642277, "ppTOIChange": -0.6497655883731832, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06380158442499871, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 210.0, "goalExpected": 0.075461259281694, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07856709130319126, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07268434528730994, "goalProbability": 0.075559964035793, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.28756187484830636, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1827489859660414, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.893520616221115, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.348148148148148, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18654434250764526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7858280077890168, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 427.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2289.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6629843014958507, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.21792618629174, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.965400843881856, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2730186501498711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2464163051767994, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.027932960893855, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 24.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 112, "fitPct": -9.184930448646298, "index": 90.8150695513537, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.83613445378151, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.529411764705882, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.315126050420168, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.96218487394958, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": 8.213876839226643, "index": 108.21387683922664, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 29.090909090909093, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.63636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.184930448646298, "zonePPFit": 8.213876839226643, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2444444444444445, "attemptProjection": 1.2595239483617762, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8828.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.348148148148148, "projectedAttempts": 2.8888888888888893, "onNet": 0.420481046229823, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 427.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7858280077890168, "projectedAttempts": 0.11042079734740283, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1151619751359887, "ppAdjusted": 0.02571111015601046, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2519841964031104, "baseline": 1.139240506329114, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474716", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2068867203735119, "adjustedSOG": 1.2068867203735116, "reductionPct": 2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1151619751359887, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1151619751359887, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1151619751359887, "afterRecentZones": 1.1151619751359887, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1151619751359887, "adjusted": 1.1151619751359887, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.177419892634457, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.02571111015601046, "afterPlayerForm": 0.02571111015601046, "afterRecentDefense": 0.02571111015601046, "afterRecentZones": 0.02571111015601046, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.02571111015601046, "adjusted": 0.02571111015601046, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2464163051767994, "newChartFactor": 1.2464163051767994, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.701195219123506, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2068867203735116, "adjustedSOG": 1.1827489859660414, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 252, "beforeSOG": 1.1827489859660414, "adjustedSOG": 1.1827489859660414 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.09068537809251423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09068537809251423, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0866949885338065, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778491171749599, "modelSOG": 1.1827489859660414, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 210.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06380158442499871, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.636548957476485, "btb": { "id": "8474716", "name": "Jared Spurgeon", "score": 33.636548957476485, "components": { "Goal model": 24.67866323907455, "SOG model": 35.47557840616967, "Unit attack": 92.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 17.480719794344473, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 33.28305681246857, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.613859855312554, "unitPlayers": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 325 } }, { "id": "8475151", "name": "Kyle Palmieri", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 2.84, "currentTOI": 16.363636363636363, "currentFiveTOI": 12.219696969696969, "ppShare": 0.7540983606557377, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 25, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.693939393939394, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.488, "currentIXG": 0.22618181818181818, "priorTOI": 18.87666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 3.4453333333333336, "deploymentChange": -2.5130303030303054, "ppTOIChange": 0.24860606060606028, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12703793806067604, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 261.0, "goalExpected": 0.28500776563915453, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28500776563915453, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24799158552928036, "goalProbability": 0.24799158552928036, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.243485450015953, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.802851828890266, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.336341263330599, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.219696969696969, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7540983606557377, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7653502235469447, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.992892932238579, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2438.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.609515400197372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.808049535603715, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.835333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7516824236834173, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005615891580804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2240388907232376, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9248259533452438, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.446293494704992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.544851966416262, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 46, "fitPct": 7.467963024107917, "index": 107.46796302410792, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.453416149068323, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.39751552795031, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.472049689440993, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.51552795031056, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.30434782608696, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": -2.5058015551585413, "index": 97.49419844484146, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.648351648351648, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 84.24908424908423, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.0769230769230775, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.467963024107917, "zonePPFit": -2.5058015551585413, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0013658858926404, "attemptProjection": 1.8428703386514178, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8065.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.219696969696969, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.4941494149414941, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2438.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7653502235469447, "projectedAttempts": 1.0193318898855552, "onNet": 0.5321047885500243, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.325958368930136, "ppAdjusted": 0.5052506524328024, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9221181122720292, "baseline": 2.84, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475151", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2892708673632174, "adjustedSOG": 2.2892708673632174, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2892708673632174, "adjustedSOG": 2.243485450015953, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 59, "beforeSOG": 2.243485450015953, "adjustedSOG": 2.243485450015953 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 258.0, "goalExpected": 0.2531960782228302, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2531960782228302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22368435169328843, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286069563990405, "modelSOG": 2.243485450015953, "historyGames": 118, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 25, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 261.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12643678160919541, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12703793806067604, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.64673658984891, "btb": { "id": "8475151", "name": "Kyle Palmieri", "score": 68.64673658984891, "components": { "Goal model": 84.31876606683805, "SOG model": 85.08997429305913, "Unit attack": 91.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 79.3103448275862, "Shot quality": 71.72236503856041, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.05698005698006, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6698143433604704, "unitPlayers": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 21 } }, { "id": "8475158", "name": "Ryan O'Reilly", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.3636363636363638, "priorSOG": 1.9012345679012346, "currentTOI": 20.907575757575756, "currentFiveTOI": 14.22878787878788, "ppShare": 0.7009402487109494, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5015151515151515, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.887, "currentIXG": 0.3533636363636364, "priorTOI": 20.39485596707819, "priorPPTOI": 2.686008230452675, "deploymentChange": 0.5127197904975667, "ppTOIChange": 0.8155069210624766, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1504683838112213, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 331.0, "goalExpected": 0.3083266397427936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3083266397427936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2653246953402975, "goalProbability": 0.2653246953402975, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0491124576018733, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.983494835480779, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.019904803115534, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.22878787878788, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7009402487109494, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6852464591318097, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9844154321502332, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2311.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.221064488876372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.445993565190746, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.613168724279836, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6651881779565487, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.924958205252656, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0034601817728395, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.096668095471771, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9281587287751096, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.98920972547929, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.3725175066008495, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.118541033434651, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Filip Forsberg" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": 0.11533939242798397, "index": 100.11533939242798, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.0382165605095546, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.626550452564533, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.72544418370768, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 83 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.569225611800201, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.863560174321153, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.177003017096882, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": 3.222269849059032, "index": 103.22226984905903, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.464646464646464, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 80.2020202020202, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.11533939242798397, "zonePPFit": 3.222269849059032, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3123729837248246, "attemptProjection": 1.9830224510797745, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9391.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.22878787878788, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.5424369420945564, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2311.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6852464591318097, "projectedAttempts": 1.1481512118454795, "onNet": 0.5649065897759357, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0514169259840407, "ppAdjusted": 0.7326444277818949, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1476977174022993, "baseline": 1.9012345679012346, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475158", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0491124576018733, "adjustedSOG": 2.0491124576018733, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0491124576018733, "adjustedSOG": 2.0491124576018733, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 80, "beforeSOG": 2.0491124576018733, "adjustedSOG": 2.0491124576018733 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.29128458918243094, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29128458918243094, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25269702658941967, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285187342263638, "modelSOG": 2.0491124576018733, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 331.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15709969788519637, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1504683838112213, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.79297297074977, "btb": { "id": "8475158", "name": "Ryan O'Reilly", "score": 65.79297297074977, "components": { "Goal model": 88.4318766066838, "SOG model": 79.69151670951157, "Unit attack": 76.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.827586206896555, "Shot quality": 90.74550128534705, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.97110297110297, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0659335588582044, "unitPlayers": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Filip Forsberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 47 } }, { "id": "8475170", "name": "Brayden Schenn", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.4875, "currentTOI": 16.41060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 12.589393939393938, "ppShare": 0.6934735539746366, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.396969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.913, "currentIXG": 0.3557272727272727, "priorTOI": 16.76875, "priorPPTOI": 2.1258333333333335, "deploymentChange": -0.3581439393939405, "ppTOIChange": 1.2711363636363635, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020880", "date": "20260202", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020595", "date": "20251227", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020517", "date": "20251215", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020487", "date": "20251211", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021147", "date": "20250327", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13400091109170037, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 287.0, "goalExpected": 0.24337600332483628, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24337600332483628, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21602331949257864, "goalProbability": 0.21602331949257864, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8162264819101688, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.065711878685763, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.451382694023193, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.589393939393938, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6934735539746366, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4626395410960833, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9949576308000262, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2242.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.489392441639419, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.525676205409644, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.698958333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4638017276548949, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071185892250445, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0860745495495123, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.781584582441114, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.26861451460886, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020880", "date": "20260202", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020595", "date": "20251227", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020517", "date": "20251215", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020487", "date": "20251211", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021147", "date": "20250327", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021121", "date": "20250323", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021082", "date": "20250318", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020562", "date": "20241227", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": 2.8691516516504123, "index": 102.86915165165041, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.213235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.54779411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.49264705882353, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.312500000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.496323529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9375000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -9.894147158926415, "index": 90.10585284107358, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.8691516516504123, "zonePPFit": -9.894147158926415, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.172535359784045, "attemptProjection": 2.021772401815168, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8309.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.589393939393938, "projectedAttempts": 2.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.5168051118210862, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2242.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4626395410960833, "projectedAttempts": 1.667997637994545, "onNet": 0.5452186222082416, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3577900040451256, "ppAdjusted": 0.739363876754481, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0971538807996066, "baseline": 1.4875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475170", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020880", "date": "20260202", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020595", "date": "20251227", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020517", "date": "20251215", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.853292328479764, "adjustedSOG": 1.853292328479764, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.853292328479764, "adjustedSOG": 1.8162264819101688, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 104, "beforeSOG": 1.8162264819101688, "adjustedSOG": 1.8162264819101688 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 285.0, "goalExpected": 0.2257334532935239, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2257334532935239, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20206924086131492, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858352592488048, "modelSOG": 1.8162264819101688, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 287.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13588850174216027, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13400091109170037, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.17596990849954, "btb": { "id": "8475170", "name": "Brayden Schenn", "score": 66.17596990849954, "components": { "Goal model": 77.6349614395887, "SOG model": 73.52185089974293, "Unit attack": 79.76190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 79.3103448275862, "Shot quality": 91.25964010282776, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.26464070908515, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1627152465214055, "unitPlayers": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 45 } }, { "id": "8475179", "name": "Dmitry Kulikov", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 0.7894736842105263, "currentTOI": 14.970833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.572222222222223, "ppShare": 0.000593589236248516, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.004166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.27999999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.02333333333333333, "priorTOI": 18.032456140350877, "priorPPTOI": 0.035964912280701755, "deploymentChange": -3.061622807017544, "ppTOIChange": -0.03179824561403509, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.3 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05317776222552707, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.03530204549518813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03551339781174482, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03468619646617158, "goalProbability": 0.034890196216083365, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.020399974991178182, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6638497751272804, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.4735980352026197, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.572222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.000593589236248516, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0032412820328332793, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7605849811031384, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.014912280701754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007034988342938524, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0708896385491533, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1291693467695154, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.5798134942402633, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": 2.362987951638445, "index": 102.36298795163844, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.48717948717949, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.23076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.362987951638445, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4597231155898384, "attemptProjection": 0.7456377378685084, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 9772.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.572222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 1.833333333333333, "onNet": 0.332729993242591, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0032412820328332793, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5193470933958401, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6026804267291734, "baseline": 0.7894736842105263, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475179", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6773977297217146, "adjustedSOG": 0.6773977297217146, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6773977297217146, "adjustedSOG": 0.6638497751272804, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 366, "beforeSOG": 0.6638497751272804, "adjustedSOG": 0.6638497751272804 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.03566358017069141, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03566358017069141, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03503512779970215, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057847082494969816, "modelSOG": 0.6638497751272804, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 19, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.047619047619047616, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05317776222552707, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 25.92863015544968, "btb": { "id": "8475179", "name": "Dmitry Kulikov", "score": 25.92863015544968, "components": { "Goal model": 4.884318766066838, "SOG model": 6.169665809768637, "Unit attack": 1.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 0.7712082262210797, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 58.238366571699906, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.6487095274152435, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 386 } }, { "id": "8475184", "name": "Chris Kreider", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 1.8533333333333333, "currentTOI": 14.346969696969696, "currentFiveTOI": 11.200000000000001, "ppShare": 0.5479289940828402, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1045454545454545, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.077, "currentIXG": 0.1888181818181818, "priorTOI": 17.04888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 3.1017777777777775, "deploymentChange": -2.7019191919191936, "ppTOIChange": -0.997232323232323, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021206", "date": "20260403", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021006", "date": "20260308", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020409", "date": "20251201", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14463633516536836, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.19192104767251994, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20117512930269402, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1746279690378344, "goalProbability": 0.18223079633787692, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7602827300042525, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3269213953263481, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.409090909090909, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.591792656587473, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.200000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5479289940828402, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.350283306437152, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0162873411382372, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1389.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.496665496665496, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.769164636767446, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.662222222222221, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5923559033438394, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0899863657021664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0329920337542307, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8760569390948306, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1259472326710636, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8683445689684792, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7567084078711988, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.591792656587473, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021206", "date": "20260403", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021006", "date": "20260308", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020409", "date": "20251201", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020492", "date": "20241215", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": 1.0997344584743587, "index": 101.09973445847436, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.908230842005677, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.232734153263955, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.709555345316936, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.420056764427624, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.464522232734154, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.26490066225165565, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -4.131435363505645, "index": 95.86856463649436, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.703703703703702, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.629629629629626, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9629629629629632, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.222222222222221, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.0997344584743587, "zonePPFit": -4.131435363505645, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8955788817822411, "attemptProjection": 1.1614157635340885, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7392.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.200000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 1.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.48121793009971925, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1389.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.350283306437152, "projectedAttempts": 0.7106688183611259, "onNet": 0.5100853738624637, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7274306317817443, "ppAdjusted": 0.21015759996732952, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0284973226581648, "baseline": 1.8533333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475184", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3584317269282322, "adjustedSOG": 1.354001423802396, "reductionPct": 0.32613366119284004, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7274306317817443, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7274306317817443, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7274306317817443, "afterRecentZones": 0.7259546889944843, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7259546889944843, "adjusted": 0.7259546889944843, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0329920337542307, "newChartFactor": 1.0287363132449194, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0326906957250628, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1785179019807128, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.21015759996732952, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2042497042115294, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21015759996732952, "afterRecentZones": 0.21015759996732952, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21015759996732952, "adjusted": 0.2042497042115294, "playerFactor": 0.9718882602545968, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8760569390948306, "newChartFactor": 0.8760569390948306, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6359890109890111, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.354001423802396, "adjustedSOG": 1.3269213953263481, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 212, "beforeSOG": 1.3269213953263481, "adjustedSOG": 1.3269213953263481 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.20328646656705943, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20328646656705943, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18395556151001552, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854534066147344, "modelSOG": 1.3269213953263481, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 75, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 300.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14463633516536836, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.424715113203966, "btb": { "id": "8475184", "name": "Chris Kreider", "score": 55.424715113203966, "components": { "Goal model": 63.753213367609256, "SOG model": 45.75835475578406, "Unit attack": 63.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 13.793103448275861, "Shot quality": 60.66838046272493, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 59.80870980870981, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7184392449479278, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 119 } }, { "id": "8475188", "name": "Brayden McNabb", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "priorSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "currentTOI": 19.212820512820514, "currentFiveTOI": 16.911538461538463, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.23 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.781, "currentIXG": 0.060076923076923076, "priorTOI": 20.523280423280422, "priorPPTOI": 0.0746031746031746, "deploymentChange": -1.3104599104599082, "ppTOIChange": -0.0746031746031746, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05369231541697503, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.0650723327998878, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06538882809492831, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06300031488458113, "goalProbability": 0.06329682395203712, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.02965090674559856, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2119487173264079, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.3666136001819424, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.911538461538463, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0604185401393105, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.76595744680851, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.356878306878308, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016337625033277202, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.850767470364696, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6850921273031827, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brayden McNabb", "Shea Theodore" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": -4.974417654510134, "index": 95.02558234548987, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.64217071791974, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.088750706613905, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.639344262295082, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.006783493499153, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.974417654510134, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0461538461538462, "attemptProjection": 1.2993287699727538, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 47.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 13191.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.911538461538463, "projectedAttempts": 3.6153846153846154, "onNet": 0.37068618055120156, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1727413080633, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1727413080633, "baseline": 1.2857142857142858, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475188", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2179304991236943, "adjustedSOG": 1.2119487173264079, "reductionPct": 0.49114311543970723, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1727413080633, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1727413080633, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1627716717344891, "afterRecentZones": 1.1727413080633, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1627716717344891, "adjusted": 1.1627716717344891, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.850767470364696, "newChartFactor": 0.850767470364696, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 90.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0387104902593822, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2119487173264079, "adjustedSOG": 1.2119487173264079, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 243, "beforeSOG": 1.2119487173264079, "adjustedSOG": 1.2119487173264079 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.05437524632007806, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05495547419371364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05292334721416992, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.054936087975574616 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785540732590657, "modelSOG": 1.2119487173264079, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 63, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05154639175257732, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05369231541697503, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.44247019443627, "btb": { "id": "8475188", "name": "Brayden McNabb", "score": 37.44247019443627, "components": { "Goal model": 18.251928020565554, "SOG model": 37.789203084832906, "Unit attack": 93.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 10.025706940874036, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 47.99474030243261, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6213243285393046, "unitPlayers": [ "Brayden McNabb", "Shea Theodore" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 293 } }, { "id": "8475200", "name": "Dmitry Orlov", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1097560975609757, "currentTOI": 18.291666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 15.073611111111111, "ppShare": 0.4373564684868589, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.3805555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.601, "currentIXG": 0.050083333333333334, "priorTOI": 21.195731707317073, "priorPPTOI": 2.3983739837398375, "deploymentChange": -2.904065040650405, "ppTOIChange": -0.01781842818428192, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021235", "date": "20250408", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020940", "date": "20250227", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020705", "date": "20250115", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05245842889908257, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.05306583852926052, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05306583852926052, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.051682425407471755, "goalProbability": 0.051682425407471755, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0115788757483848, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.985349672901502, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.301050175029172, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.073611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4373564684868589, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.172341847925543, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1714.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.944716454187457, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.88135593220339, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.39369918699187, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47726518957135133, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8082430207576209, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7586206896551726, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.555555555555555, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021235", "date": "20250408", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020940", "date": "20250227", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020705", "date": "20250115", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Luca Cagnoni", "Dmitry Orlov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 115, "fitPct": -6.391899308079303, "index": 93.6081006919207, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.7391304347826, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.445652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.445652173913044, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.891304347826088, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": 12.504794711015649, "index": 112.50479471101565, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 95.19999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.391899308079303, "zonePPFit": 12.504794711015649, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8998540038043099, "attemptProjection": 1.0456942014859163, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 10853.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.073611111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.0833333333333335, "onNet": 0.38608746017955403, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1714.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.172341847925543, "projectedAttempts": 0.6083571102708638, "onNet": 0.4157088122605364, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7003805724220968, "ppAdjusted": 0.27239353022301627, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9727741026451131, "baseline": 1.1097560975609757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475200", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.027566900611458, "adjustedSOG": 1.0115788757483848, "reductionPct": 1.5559108466377758, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7003805724220968, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6744621444991934, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7003805724220968, "afterRecentZones": 0.7003805724220968, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7003805724220968, "adjusted": 0.6744621444991934, "playerFactor": 0.9629937937409216, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8082430207576209, "newChartFactor": 0.8021134018549775, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.21666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7648728920211427, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.27239353022301627, "afterPlayerForm": 0.27239353022301627, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2716652500407974, "afterRecentZones": 0.27239353022301627, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2716652500407974, "adjusted": 0.2716652500407974, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2282964782964783, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0115788757483848, "adjustedSOG": 1.0115788757483848, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 298, "beforeSOG": 1.0115788757483848, "adjustedSOG": 1.0115788757483848 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 217.0, "goalExpected": 0.042057837328764294, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03958537294226843, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041185676290502696, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23735673398417104 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786697247706422, "modelSOG": 1.0115788757483848, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 220.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05245842889908257, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.64112794696021, "btb": { "id": "8475200", "name": "Dmitry Orlov", "score": 31.64112794696021, "components": { "Goal model": 14.395886889460154, "SOG model": 23.65038560411311, "Unit attack": 14.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 8.740359897172237, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 35.32763532763533, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9364470181509725, "unitPlayers": [ "Luca Cagnoni", "Dmitry Orlov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 348 } }, { "id": "8475208", "name": "Brian Dumoulin", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.7439024390243902, "currentTOI": 16.453333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.526666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0072, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.513, "currentIXG": 0.0513, "priorTOI": 17.75121951219512, "priorPPTOI": 0.10772357723577236, "deploymentChange": -1.2978861788617877, "ppTOIChange": -0.07772357723577236, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021140", "date": "20250326", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020959", "date": "20250301", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04952638992504653, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.03940989187900499, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03991478018013517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03864342387745857, "goalProbability": 0.039128679055817975, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.04852551783594075, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7957352017509878, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.89123451124369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.526666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0072, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03074727272727272, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.529769509889099, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.7924528301886795, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.908130081300813, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025275165480800416, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2208737829476655, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.642495784148398, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021140", "date": "20250326", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020959", "date": "20250301", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020298", "date": "20241119", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020191", "date": "20241103", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mikey Anderson", "Brian Dumoulin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": 7.362459431588846, "index": 107.36245943158885, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.67464114832535, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.8421052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.4688995215311, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.330143540669855, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8421052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8421052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.362459431588846, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.905, "attemptProjection": 0.8097124001817243, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 8716.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.526666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.4, "onNet": 0.42119624239791487, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03074727272727272, "projectedAttempts": 0.10249090909090906, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7360467355913884, "ppAdjusted": 0.021309464499473806, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8573562000908621, "baseline": 0.7439024390243902, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475208", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8119746956642733, "adjustedSOG": 0.8119746956642733, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8119746956642733, "adjustedSOG": 0.7957352017509878, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 344, "beforeSOG": 0.7957352017509878, "adjustedSOG": 0.7957352017509878 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.03664709208371747, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03664709208371747, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.035983715696950316, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787280802161073, "modelSOG": 0.7957352017509878, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 138.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04952638992504653, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 21.61903940730097, "btb": { "id": "8475208", "name": "Brian Dumoulin", "score": 21.61903940730097, "components": { "Goal model": 7.197943444730077, "SOG model": 11.825192802056556, "Unit attack": 6.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 13.367609254498715, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 48.88553712083124, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.748016419540202, "unitPlayers": [ "Mikey Anderson", "Brian Dumoulin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 393 } }, { "id": "8475220", "name": "Marcus Foligno", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1607142857142858, "currentTOI": 12.1625, "currentFiveTOI": 11.375, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 56, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.768, "currentIXG": 0.192, "priorTOI": 12.845238095238097, "priorPPTOI": 0.14017857142857143, "deploymentChange": -0.682738095238097, "ppTOIChange": -0.14017857142857143, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13407285708573013, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.13294238892337393, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13841402738346414, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1244844699518459, "goalProbability": 0.12926189231529564, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4777422363449746, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9915682548509178, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.274725274725275, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9585268420306895, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1042.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.489419758700945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 30.573248407643312, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.125297619047618, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.026567994584867336, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.780241816425298, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.274725274725275, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -7.325272785823401, "index": 92.6747272141766, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.176470588235293, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.058823529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.470588235294116, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.176470588235295, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.325272785823401, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 0.9904916705284993, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2730.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.375, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.4874641251962961, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9202458352642496, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9202458352642496, "baseline": 1.1607142857142858, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475220", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0164332154442641, "adjustedSOG": 1.01180434168461, "reductionPct": 0.4554036299995179, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9202458352642496, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9202458352642496, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9125310456648263, "afterRecentZones": 0.9202458352642496, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9125310456648263, "adjusted": 0.9125310456648263, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.780241816425298, "newChartFactor": 0.7775062170704458, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.01180434168461, "adjustedSOG": 0.9915682548509178, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9915682548509178, "adjustedSOG": 0.9915682548509178 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.15473520312391176, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15473520312391176, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14335801642530732, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858942842289833, "modelSOG": 0.9915682548509178, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 56, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13407285708573013, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475231", "name": "Casey Cizikas", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 0.9876543209876543, "currentTOI": 12.136363636363637, "currentFiveTOI": 10.663636363636364, "ppShare": 0.007732755954222085, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Forward unit pending", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03787878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.244, "currentIXG": 0.11309090909090909, "priorTOI": 11.767901234567901, "priorPPTOI": 0.04074074074074074, "deploymentChange": 0.3684624017957354, "ppTOIChange": -0.0028619528619528573, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10829930256246603, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 185.0, "goalExpected": 0.09095981352419322, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09095981352419322, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08694559739933383, "goalProbability": 0.08694559739933383, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8398928836289453, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0460358056265986, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.663636363636364, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007732755954222085, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03861105643505891, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0082313293627068, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.141493073266276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.084979423868313, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008888573551467997, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071185892250445, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0987395403840978, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.254932665205136, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "projectedPosition": null, "positionStatus": "Incomplete reported units; roster position retained", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": 3.2913180128032593, "index": 103.29131801280326, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.293103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.241379310344828, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.77586206896552, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.672413793103448, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.948275862068964, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0689655172413794, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.2913180128032593, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7818181818181817, "attemptProjection": 0.758087905942991, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 7038.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.663636363636364, "projectedAttempts": 0.7272727272727273, "onNet": 0.5088452222191983, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03861105643505891, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.40631668024422274, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7699530438805864, "baseline": 0.9876543209876543, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475231", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8570335547234136, "adjustedSOG": 0.8570335547234136, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8570335547234136, "adjustedSOG": 0.8398928836289453, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 335, "beforeSOG": 0.8398928836289453, "adjustedSOG": 0.8398928836289453 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 185.0, "goalExpected": 0.08937721873858918, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08937721873858918, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0854994582384917, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865301230302817, "modelSOG": 0.8398928836289453, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 185.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0972972972972973, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10829930256246603, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.99442388516938, "btb": { "id": "8475231", "name": "Casey Cizikas", "score": 38.99442388516938, "components": { "Goal model": 29.56298200514139, "SOG model": 14.138817480719794, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 31.105398457583547, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.76231176231176, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 281 } }, { "id": "8475235", "name": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.5806451612903226, "currentTOI": 8.985416666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.866666666666667, "ppShare": 0.007282356835484938, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 31, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.502, "currentIXG": 0.06275, "priorTOI": 8.547311827956989, "priorPPTOI": 0.0016129032258064516, "deploymentChange": 0.43810483870967865, "ppTOIChange": 0.04422043010752688, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.916666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020935", "date": "20260228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.633333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020843", "date": "20260129", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11316928296078052, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 49.0, "goalExpected": 0.07279286196009045, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06948418431730055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07020659433619592, "goalProbability": 0.06712511267889995, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30814816572959647, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6432210230166188, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.2293233082706765, "Current_PP_SOG60": 163.63636363636363, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.866666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007282356835484938, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03754420622593413, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.042724438158192, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3021.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.117422798322531, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.461290322580645, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00036502773172064276, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9267676767676768, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1575730355816043, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0728012728748706, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.638814016172507, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 163.63636363636363, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.916666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020935", "date": "20260228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.633333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020843", "date": "20260129", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Eric Robinson", "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Nicolas Deslauriers" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": 5.25243451938681, "index": 105.25243451938681, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.4444444444444455, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.85185185185185, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 43.25925925925926, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.25243451938681, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7740214469862482, "attemptProjection": 0.6229093730460658, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 4256.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.866666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.125, "onNet": 0.504413277738669, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03754420622593413, "projectedAttempts": 0.10239328970709309, "onNet": 0.5700954178462829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6169455152979562, "ppAdjusted": 0.08151989471820086, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6984654100161569, "baseline": 0.5806451612903226, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 31, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475235", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020843", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6513373105258232, "adjustedSOG": 0.6432210230166188, "reductionPct": 1.2460958980919146, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6169455152979562, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6169455152979562, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6075185629493903, "afterRecentZones": 0.6155098941467518, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6061048781472596, "adjusted": 0.6061048781472596, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847199596806971, "oldChartFactor": 1.1575730355816043, "newChartFactor": 1.1526160352469823, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 48.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4721549636803875, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279949742198932, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.08151989471820086, "afterPlayerForm": 0.08151989471820086, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07883338602022326, "afterRecentZones": 0.08151989471820086, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07883338602022327, "adjusted": 0.07883338602022327, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6432210230166188, "adjustedSOG": 0.6432210230166188, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 368, "beforeSOG": 0.6432210230166188, "adjustedSOG": 0.6432210230166188 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.07634412587535132, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07470555194922522, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0735026800072834, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.151937881847225 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862223161156297, "modelSOG": 0.6432210230166188, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 31, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 49.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08163265306122448, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11316928296078052, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.57269422906582, "btb": { "id": "8475235", "name": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "score": 39.57269422906582, "components": { "Goal model": 23.39331619537275, "SOG model": 5.655526992287918, "Unit attack": 57.142857142857146, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 20.051413881748072, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 49.90138067061144, "Goalie H2H": 47.24972497249725 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.607744381628656, "unitPlayers": [ "Eric Robinson", "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Nicolas Deslauriers" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 273 } }, { "id": "8475253", "name": "Garrett Wilson", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 9.808333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.558333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 8.677777777777779, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.1305555555555546, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12485957995720126, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.04994383198288051, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04938963658913469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04871714532816673, "goalProbability": 0.048189802640010895, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.052734268815583796, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.4, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.558333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0029891850709194, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 493.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.914212548015365, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.677777777777779, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.016855500362784, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.016855500362784, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1147.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.558333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4952076677316294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475253", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4, "adjustedSOG": 0.4, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.116666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1698315100215602, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4, "adjustedSOG": 0.4, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.4, "adjustedSOG": 0.4 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286053673559173, "modelSOG": 0.4, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2025": 3, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12485957995720126, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475287", "name": "Erik Haula", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 1.5679012345679013, "currentTOI": 16.134999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 12.451666666666666, "ppShare": 0.2752, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1466666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.823, "currentIXG": 0.1823, "priorTOI": 16.674074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 1.4534979423868313, "deploymentChange": -0.539074074074076, "ppTOIChange": -0.30683127572016455, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021113", "date": "20260322", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020926", "date": "20260226", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020707", "date": "20260110", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020389", "date": "20251128", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021140", "date": "20250326", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.909090909090908, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10948222004561274, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.1953076098041578, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19780973611332303, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1774184150261243, "goalProbability": 0.17947404525562008, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20556302294957862, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7839208021429258, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.78235845268371, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.465116279069768, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.451666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2752, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1752290909090908, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 1.0384002664338976, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 688.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.738324514411542, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.154020385050963, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.521399176954732, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3599578128608136, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0258048859407862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2326276539353225, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2013859121659438, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.984866123399302, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021113", "date": "20260322", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020926", "date": "20260226", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020707", "date": "20260110", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020389", "date": "20251128", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021140", "date": "20250326", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020474", "date": "20241214", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Scott Laughton", "Erik Haula", "Joel Armia" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": 7.754255131177416, "index": 107.75425513117742, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.896639188332276, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.60875079264426, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.089410272669625, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.135066582117945, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.979708306911858, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.290424857324034, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 6.712863738864797, "index": 106.7128637388648, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.217391304347827, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.478260869565215, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 60.86956521739131, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.4782608695652173, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.754255131177416, "zonePPFit": 6.712863738864797, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.015729090909091, "attemptProjection": 1.961493760085156, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7471.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.451666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.49013844515441957, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 688.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1752290909090908, "projectedAttempts": 0.3074727272727273, "onNet": 0.5674503077388761, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3831112503960283, "ppAdjusted": 0.20550017510109506, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9886114254971234, "baseline": 1.5679012345679013, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475287", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021113", "date": "20260322", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8203273491254346, "adjustedSOG": 1.8203273491254346, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8203273491254346, "adjustedSOG": 1.7839208021429258, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 109, "beforeSOG": 1.7839208021429258, "adjustedSOG": 1.7839208021429258 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.1861460433457831, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1861460433457831, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16984765209791372, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866188116192526, "modelSOG": 1.7839208021429258, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 255.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10196078431372549, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10948222004561274, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.76350096016085, "btb": { "id": "8475287", "name": "Erik Haula", "score": 50.76350096016085, "components": { "Goal model": 64.01028277634961, "SOG model": 72.23650385604113, "Unit attack": 40.476190476190474, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 89.65517241379311, "Shot quality": 58.354755784061695, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 36.164529914529915, "Goalie H2H": 47.57975797579758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3175727791757135, "unitPlayers": [ "Scott Laughton", "Erik Haula", "Joel Armia" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 165 } }, { "id": "8475314", "name": "Anders Lee", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.9166666666666667, "priorSOG": 2.426829268292683, "currentTOI": 13.473611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 12.127777777777778, "ppShare": 0.21231190150478796, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0777777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.787, "currentIXG": 0.39891666666666664, "priorTOI": 15.63780487804878, "priorPPTOI": 1.5884146341463414, "deploymentChange": -2.164193766937668, "ppTOIChange": -0.5106368563685637, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020708", "date": "20260110", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020228", "date": "20251107", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021208", "date": "20250404", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.6153846153846154, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11486861289699127, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 456.0, "goalExpected": 0.23637452253330227, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22267184786824704, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21051506134273262, "goalProbability": 0.19962254822757766, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.089251311515496, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.057781639143425, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.245533669262484, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.127777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21231190150478796, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1186636968442714, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9700318162076811, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 776.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.01883066618221, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.280230326295586, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.866056910569105, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3465508984160208, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8970989999372365, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9153175509985867, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8979079059543158, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.525083612040134, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.155148095909732, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020708", "date": "20260110", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020228", "date": "20251107", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021208", "date": "20250404", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020886", "date": "20250208", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anders Lee", "Barrett Hayton", "Kailer Yamamoto" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 238, "fitPct": -3.430033335425449, "index": 96.56996666457455, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.252100840336134, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.336134453781511, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.72268907563025, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 117 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.596638655462185, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.294117647058823, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.798319327731093, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -2.8227483000471096, "index": 97.17725169995289, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 84.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.430033335425449, "zonePPFit": -2.8227483000471096, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.65532839858256, "attemptProjection": 1.9681713741719469, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 8732.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.127777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 3.5833333333333335, "onNet": 0.481294445017005, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 776.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1186636968442714, "projectedAttempts": 0.6054623101476726, "onNet": 0.5276292335115865, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4981692733790697, "ppAdjusted": 0.23024727966485045, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8117498863772534, "baseline": 2.426829268292683, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475314", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020228", "date": "20251107", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.057781639143425, "adjustedSOG": 2.057781639143425, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.057781639143425, "adjustedSOG": 2.057781639143425, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 76, "beforeSOG": 2.057781639143425, "adjustedSOG": 2.057781639143425 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 451.0, "goalExpected": 0.1867874032469073, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1867874032469073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17037990782369744, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286694877072714, "modelSOG": 2.057781639143425, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 456.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1118421052631579, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11486861289699127, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.31885540748907, "btb": { "id": "8475314", "name": "Anders Lee", "score": 65.31885540748907, "components": { "Goal model": 75.32133676092545, "SOG model": 80.719794344473, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 94.34447300771208, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 53.2967032967033, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.35211950693162, "unitPlayers": [ "Anders Lee", "Barrett Hayton", "Kailer Yamamoto" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 51 } }, { "id": "8475324", "name": "Nick Jensen", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.5901639344262295, "currentTOI": 15.591666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.775, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.185, "currentIXG": 0.0925, "priorTOI": 17.008743169398908, "priorPPTOI": 0.051912568306010924, "deploymentChange": -1.4170765027322414, "ppTOIChange": -0.051912568306010924, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021011", "date": "20260309", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020725", "date": "20260113", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020537", "date": "20241221", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06439031232906707, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.04704406348192805, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04704406348192805, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.045954641896220484, "goalProbability": 0.045954641896220484, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.730607785244294, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.030456852791878, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 447.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6217303822937628, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021011", "date": "20260309", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020725", "date": "20260113", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020537", "date": "20241221", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020323", "date": "20241123", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Travis Mitchell", "Nick Jensen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": 10.823278292968652, "index": 110.82327829296865, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 27.246376811594203, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.579710144927535, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.318840579710145, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5797101449275363, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 49.27536231884058, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.823278292968652, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 1.0734740382460075, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1773.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.775, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.38102835479030095, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8242370191230037, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8242370191230037, "baseline": 0.5901639344262295, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475324", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.730607785244294, "adjustedSOG": 0.730607785244294, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.730607785244294, "adjustedSOG": 0.730607785244294, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 356, "beforeSOG": 0.730607785244294, "adjustedSOG": 0.730607785244294 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.07248598433840338, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06999243890172155, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06992121776160282, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23220876155102127 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779526838420354, "modelSOG": 0.730607785244294, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 61, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07017543859649122, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06439031232906707, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.74970102733599, "btb": { "id": "8475324", "name": "Nick Jensen", "score": 32.74970102733599, "components": { "Goal model": 11.825192802056556, "SOG model": 8.740359897172237, "Unit attack": 25.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 52.95629820051414, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.68009768009768, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.149376981680744, "unitPlayers": [ "Travis Mitchell", "Nick Jensen" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 337 } }, { "id": "8475343", "name": "Nic Dowd", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.38461538461538464, "priorSOG": 0.88, "currentTOI": 12.17051282051282, "currentFiveTOI": 10.75, "ppShare": 0.006439979392065945, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.032051282051282055, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.584, "currentIXG": 0.04492307692307692, "priorTOI": 14.542000000000002, "priorPPTOI": 0.06555555555555556, "deploymentChange": -2.371487179487181, "ppTOIChange": -0.033504273504273506, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020632", "date": "20260101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020135", "date": "20251025", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020967", "date": "20250303", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020814", "date": "20250130", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020708", "date": "20250116", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12397372066661565, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 157.0, "goalExpected": 0.07159938314219057, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07194762435189168, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06909624314299632, "goalProbability": 0.06942036575369892, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.032412261070259574, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5775367776105735, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7173524150268336, "Current_PP_SOG60": 144.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.75, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006439979392065945, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.032420755227942244, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.008610960945701, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.004375150627538, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.986888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014356253486688267, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.003243076289509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8739867521799404, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8768211578932802, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.5143017386427369, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 144, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020632", "date": "20260101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020135", "date": "20251025", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020967", "date": "20250303", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020814", "date": "20250130", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020708", "date": "20250116", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Rondbjerg", "Nic Dowd", "Marc Gatcomb" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -4.200441594001987, "index": 95.79955840599801, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.34848484848485, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.176767676767675, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.27777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.732323232323232, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.252525252525253, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212124, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.200441594001987, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3476881083858687, "attemptProjection": 0.4654267019518999, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 8385.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.75, "projectedAttempts": 0.923076923076923, "onNet": 0.4760164982050565, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.032420755227942244, "projectedAttempts": 0.07780981254706139, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3478997087785546, "ppAdjusted": 0.05865769639032968, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4065574051688843, "baseline": 0.88, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475343", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5959344431013306, "adjustedSOG": 0.5775367776105735, "reductionPct": 3.087196201483655, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3478997087785546, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3264702418535474, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3385685829237888, "afterRecentZones": 0.34679978468272804, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3380603266141283, "adjusted": 0.3172369329606262, "playerFactor": 0.9384033203125, "defenseFactor": 0.9731786902394182, "oldChartFactor": 0.8739867521799404, "newChartFactor": 0.8668603570003045, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5875140134529149, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8733075627278325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05865769639032968, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05865769639032968, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05865769639032968, "afterRecentZones": 0.05865769639032968, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05865769639032968, "adjusted": 0.05865769639032968, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5775367776105735, "adjustedSOG": 0.5775367776105735, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 381, "beforeSOG": 0.5775367776105735, "adjustedSOG": 0.5775367776105735 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.041699009213638304, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04214397138091415, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04084156501926304, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.042669427754453426 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861246211320224, "modelSOG": 0.5775367776105735, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 157.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12101910828025478, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12397372066661565, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.285950902238707, "btb": { "id": "8475343", "name": "Nic Dowd", "score": 29.285950902238707, "components": { "Goal model": 22.62210796915167, "SOG model": 2.3136246786632393, "Unit attack": 39.285714285714285, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 4.370179948586118, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 39.69610636277303, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2904611616533135, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Rondbjerg", "Nic Dowd", "Marc Gatcomb" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 361 } }, { "id": "8475455", "name": "Brenden Dillon", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.16666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.6707317073170732, "currentTOI": 14.502777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 12.897222222222224, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.08800000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.014666666666666668, "priorTOI": 17.997560975609755, "priorPPTOI": 0.01849593495934959, "deploymentChange": -3.4947831978319766, "ppTOIChange": -0.01849593495934959, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05286797672678734, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.024452022004020333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02427235367166459, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024155493140890265, "goalProbability": 0.02398014903428445, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.017534410660581534, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.46251102307894626, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.7753607581305191, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.897222222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2118.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.6153805510791748, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38739837398374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004768842167045728, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8022129809682688, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9526329716856311, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": -6.592900634391043, "index": 93.40709936560896, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 89.52380952380952, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4761904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.592900634391043, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.1416666666666667, "attemptProjection": 0.5371911354103863, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 4643.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.897222222222224, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.34355015595846805, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3394289010385265, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3394289010385265, "baseline": 0.6707317073170732, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475455", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4719500235499452, "adjustedSOG": 0.4719500235499452, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4719500235499452, "adjustedSOG": 0.46251102307894626, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 385, "beforeSOG": 0.46251102307894626, "adjustedSOG": 0.46251102307894626 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.01018433185103995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.010406688926459275, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01013264715027104, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.022007954060445332 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785067252264617, "modelSOG": 0.46251102307894626, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 104.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04807692307692308, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05286797672678734, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.04182388763459, "btb": { "id": "8475455", "name": "Brenden Dillon", "score": 33.04182388763459, "components": { "Goal model": 2.056555269922879, "SOG model": 1.2853470437017995, "Unit attack": 84.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 15.938303341902314, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 63.715913715913715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2338587066652824, "unitPlayers": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 334 } }, { "id": "8475462", "name": "Radko Gudas", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.125, "currentTOI": 13.541666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 12.4125, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 56, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.087, "currentIXG": 0.010875, "priorTOI": 16.183035714285715, "priorPPTOI": 0.03660714285714285, "deploymentChange": -2.6413690476190492, "ppTOIChange": -0.03660714285714285, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021022", "date": "20260310", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021302", "date": "20250416", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020609", "date": "20250102", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020511", "date": "20241218", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.034361473410589954, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.030177025541315038, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03035769451291377, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.029726244892350668, "goalProbability": 0.029901527419321478, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.017528252697080957, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8782226879716601, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.416918429003021, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.4125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3671.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.47306840067096, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.371726190476192, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00699097702334928, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0587899054056937, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1164111247475001, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.051282051282051, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021022", "date": "20260310", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021302", "date": "20250416", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020609", "date": "20250102", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020511", "date": "20241218", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": 1.9596635135231253, "index": 101.95966351352313, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.46938775510203, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 82 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0408163265306123, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9596635135231253, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.55820556237375, "attemptProjection": 0.928946437529856, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5958.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.4125, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.3422365644780936, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.743575999951803, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.743575999951803, "baseline": 1.125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475462", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8961455999710818, "adjustedSOG": 0.8961455999710818, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8961455999710818, "adjustedSOG": 0.8782226879716601, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 322, "beforeSOG": 0.8782226879716601, "adjustedSOG": 0.8782226879716601 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.028578483254883703, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028578483254883703, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028173980916140238, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057965371931110295, "modelSOG": 0.8782226879716601, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 56, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 156.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.019230769230769232, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.034361473410589954, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 28.052666145166903, "btb": { "id": "8475462", "name": "Radko Gudas", "score": 28.052666145166903, "components": { "Goal model": 3.0848329048843186, "SOG model": 17.480719794344473, "Unit attack": 1.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 7.455012853470437, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 66.57169990503324, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.6487095274152435, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 372 } }, { "id": "8475692", "name": "Mats Zuccarello", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 2.0677966101694913, "currentTOI": 16.375, "currentFiveTOI": 12.672222222222222, "ppShare": 0.6754966887417219, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.585, "currentIXG": 0.09749999999999999, "priorTOI": 18.644350282485874, "priorPPTOI": 3.323728813559322, "deploymentChange": -2.269350282485874, "ppTOIChange": -0.49039548022598867, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021088", "date": "20260319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021072", "date": "20260317", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020837", "date": "20260127", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020370", "date": "20251126", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020792", "date": "20250126", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12430140202483919, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.1757408584577882, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17799231105599186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16116466774454685, "goalProbability": 0.16305114128305967, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18864735385128173, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4138284491969757, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.578255151249452, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.672222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6754966887417219, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.88467790487658, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1020.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1510.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.576640074355201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.261091279959205, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.588700564971752, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6299451351250764, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9882576812401374, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1179611711246087, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9024226916403841, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.104833714692114, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197418351080721, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3285899094437257, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021088", "date": "20260319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021072", "date": "20260317", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020837", "date": "20260127", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020370", "date": "20251126", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020792", "date": "20250126", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020554", "date": "20241223", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020237", "date": "20241110", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": 3.932039037486959, "index": 103.93203903748696, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.384615384615383, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.538461538461538, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.307692307692307, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": -3.252576945320527, "index": 96.74742305467947, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.111111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.222222222222221, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.932039037486959, "zonePPFit": -3.252576945320527, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7016112382307047, "attemptProjection": 1.3502669182677138, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 4562.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.672222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4508250825082508, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1020.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.88467790487658, "projectedAttempts": 0.33937387116195056, "onNet": 0.48958446349137463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6091507557277112, "ppAdjusted": 0.0834549891881647, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0259390782492093, "baseline": 2.0677966101694913, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475692", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021088", "date": "20260319", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025021072", "date": "20260317", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020837", "date": "20260127", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020370", "date": "20251126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4426820910173221, "adjustedSOG": 1.4426820910173221, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4426820910173221, "adjustedSOG": 1.4138284491969757, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.4138284491969757, "adjustedSOG": 1.4138284491969757 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.17049991775699433, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17049991775699433, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15675684102053752, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286162856336438, "modelSOG": 1.4138284491969757, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 59, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 277.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12274368231046931, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12430140202483919, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475722", "name": "Jason Zucker", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2.064516129032258, "currentTOI": 13.066666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.45, "ppShare": 0.19708029197080293, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.386, "currentIXG": 0.193, "priorTOI": 15.622043010752689, "priorPPTOI": 3.1413978494623658, "deploymentChange": -2.5553763440860227, "ppTOIChange": -2.241397849462366, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1573548242648185, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.29537493546649085, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2899785057412989, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.255747511506833, "goalProbability": 0.25172034887788536, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4027162628947645, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8771266584708772, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 33.333333333333336, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.45, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19708029197080293, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.035256303915063, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9938645659748523, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 108.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 548.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0314277451074905, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.13813523132793, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Zucker", "Josh Norris", "Ryan McLeod" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 137, "fitPct": 4.604507710931003, "index": 104.604507710931, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.963503649635037, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.839416058394161, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 78.1021897810219, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.007299270072993, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3357664233576645, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7518248175182483, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.604507710931003, "zonePPFit": null, "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.612920458103233, "attemptProjection": 2.0372911144240504, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1374.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.45, "projectedAttempts": 0.5, "onNet": 0.48549771346238174, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 108.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.035256303915063, "projectedAttempts": 1.150284782127848, "onNet": 0.5591320444261622, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.1341179139139561, "ppAdjusted": 0.6909878723496854, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8251057862636417, "baseline": 2.064516129032258, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475722", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9208699233710882, "adjustedSOG": 1.9154353657866094, "reductionPct": 0.2829216865940176, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.1341179139139561, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1341179139139561, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12968824011199837, "afterRecentZones": 0.1341179139139561, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12968824011199837, "adjusted": 0.12968824011199837, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9669717961405245, "oldChartFactor": 1.13813523132793, "newChartFactor": 1.1233810185779622, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 22.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8434201266713582, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6909878723496854, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6909878723496854, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6863599501775121, "afterRecentZones": 0.6909878723496854, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.686359950177512, "adjusted": 0.686359950177512, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9154353657866094, "adjustedSOG": 1.8771266584708772, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 98, "beforeSOG": 1.8771266584708772, "adjustedSOG": 1.8771266584708772 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850704275042116, "modelSOG": 1.8771266584708772, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 62, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 46.0, "historyShots": 274.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1678832116788321, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1573548242648185, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.503880221816495, "btb": { "id": "8475722", "name": "Jason Zucker", "score": 59.503880221816495, "components": { "Goal model": 86.88946015424165, "SOG model": 75.06426735218508, "Unit attack": 41.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 64.78149100257069, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 54.30637738330046, "Goalie H2H": 50.57270432925645 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3376741746006524, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Zucker", "Josh Norris", "Ryan McLeod" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 85 } }, { "id": "8475726", "name": "Tyler Toffoli", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 2.1772151898734178, "currentTOI": 12.87638888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 10.775, "ppShare": 0.3281449349323807, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7861111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.767, "currentIXG": 0.23058333333333333, "priorTOI": 14.972573839662447, "priorPPTOI": 2.771729957805907, "deploymentChange": -2.096184950773557, "ppTOIChange": -0.9856188466947959, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 3.683333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12380160685140837, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 432.0, "goalExpected": 0.2694314255470403, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2694314255470403, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23618634416988302, "goalProbability": 0.23618634416988302, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.1763160624435405, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.424593967517401, "Current_PP_SOG60": 25.194401244167963, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3281449349323807, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.629890091267356, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0330444604574947, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1286.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.992575380761341, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.892829958897854, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.621729957805908, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5515612797342307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1097651536248028, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9355282316755051, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.224178922022819, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.038216631745707, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.665399239543726, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 24.114832535885167, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 3.683333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kiefer Sherwood", "Ty Dellandrea", "Tyler Toffoli" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": -2.1490589441498287, "index": 97.85094105585017, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.403846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.21153846153846, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.28846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.865384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.115384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.115384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": 7.472630734093968, "index": 107.47263073409397, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.550632911392405, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.120253164556964, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.72784810126582, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.556962025316456, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.537974683544304, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5063291139240507, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1490589441498287, "zonePPFit": 7.472630734093968, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.338017520407206, "attemptProjection": 2.0611223799660254, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7758.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.775, "projectedAttempts": 2.7500000000000004, "onNet": 0.49457234880114515, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 1286.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.629890091267356, "projectedAttempts": 0.9885803041901537, "onNet": 0.5469586047865315, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3374437676018758, "ppAdjusted": 0.6954595159180734, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.199569950186616, "baseline": 2.1772151898734178, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475726", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1906280460613368, "adjustedSOG": 2.1763160624435405, "reductionPct": 0.6533278729599301, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3374437676018758, "afterPlayerForm": 1.322007942692773, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3374437676018758, "afterRecentZones": 1.3374437676018758, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3374437676018758, "adjusted": 1.322007942692773, "playerFactor": 0.9884587111002205, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9355282316755051, "newChartFactor": 0.9355282316755051, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9165337586390218, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4948160363780072, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6954595159180734, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6888838570335917, "afterRecentDefense": 0.693600112787008, "afterRecentZones": 0.6954595159180734, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.693600112787008, "adjusted": 0.6870420347975155, "playerFactor": 0.9905448717948718, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.224178922022819, "newChartFactor": 1.224178922022819, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9159544159544158, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1763160624435405, "adjustedSOG": 2.1763160624435405, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 65, "beforeSOG": 2.1763160624435405, "adjustedSOG": 2.1763160624435405 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 428.0, "goalExpected": 0.2660369529195026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25039737339372686, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23358919413907617, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.208056398063892 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286245484494926, "modelSOG": 2.1763160624435405, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 432.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12268518518518519, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12380160685140837, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.59481592386477, "btb": { "id": "8475726", "name": "Tyler Toffoli", "score": 57.59481592386477, "components": { "Goal model": 82.51928020565553, "SOG model": 83.54755784061696, "Unit attack": 15.476190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 72.49357326478149, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.11070411070411, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.064152714229113, "unitPlayers": [ "Kiefer Sherwood", "Ty Dellandrea", "Tyler Toffoli" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 101 } }, { "id": "8475745", "name": "Charlie Coyle", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 1.7560975609756098, "currentTOI": 19.407407407407405, "currentFiveTOI": 12.929629629629629, "ppShare": 0.6600660066006601, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.582, "currentIXG": 0.28688888888888886, "priorTOI": 18.098170731707317, "priorPPTOI": 1.9369918699186992, "deploymentChange": 1.3092366757000882, "ppTOIChange": 1.3963414634146343, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020425", "date": "20241207", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020175", "date": "20241102", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1352606039087443, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 276.0, "goalExpected": 0.2379698682370116, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23511690674026653, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21177355861173738, "goalProbability": 0.20952156803001543, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22519905817219577, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7593435291591757, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.640504153537668, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.929629629629629, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6600660066006601, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7077938563087076, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5555555555555556, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9949718475470846, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1800.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7187353994704875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.199370409233998, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.050813008130083, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.44718689878466544, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9803188374829795, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.219509158885099, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0400290350292125, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.731505820503192, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.106870229007634, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020425", "date": "20241207", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020175", "date": "20241102", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020148", "date": "20241029", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Knies", "Charlie Coyle", "Mathieu Olivier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 154, "fitPct": -0.6560387505673475, "index": 99.34396124943265, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.3376623376623376, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.935064935064935, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 77 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0779220779220777, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.87012987012987, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16.77922077922078, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": 7.316971962836632, "index": 107.31697196283663, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 65.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6560387505673475, "zonePPFit": 7.316971962836632, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0219808840602695, "attemptProjection": 1.7981121150482087, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6982.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.929629629629629, "projectedAttempts": 1.8888888888888886, "onNet": 0.5151197446076642, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1800.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7077938563087076, "projectedAttempts": 0.37077938563087076, "onNet": 0.547626576719019, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0458574368819087, "ppAdjusted": 0.30863350711677473, "other": 0.5555555555555556 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9100464995542392, "baseline": 1.7560975609756098, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475745", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8484669241227873, "adjustedSOG": 1.7952484991420161, "reductionPct": 2.8790574657443058, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0458574368819087, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0216233303502211, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9893829576580003, "afterRecentZones": 1.0357962146845956, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9798650239280364, "adjusted": 0.9571600619139566, "playerFactor": 0.9768284799848644, "defenseFactor": 0.9460017424628352, "oldChartFactor": 0.9803188374829795, "newChartFactor": 0.9613516638446957, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.36666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8507630913577238, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7424889297466817, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.30863350711677473, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30863350711677473, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30863350711677473, "afterRecentZones": 0.30863350711677473, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.30863350711677473, "adjusted": 0.30863350711677473, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.219509158885099, "newChartFactor": 1.219509158885099, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0743061772605191, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7952484991420161, "adjustedSOG": 1.7593435291591757, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 112, "beforeSOG": 1.7593435291591757, "adjustedSOG": 1.7593435291591757 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.22949281329988813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23344027264763664, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2050633184111493, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.31317948514272 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857987069687857, "modelSOG": 1.7593435291591757, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 83, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 276.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13768115942028986, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1352606039087443, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.30216648249727, "btb": { "id": "8475745", "name": "Charlie Coyle", "score": 54.30216648249727, "components": { "Goal model": 76.09254498714652, "SOG model": 71.46529562982005, "Unit attack": 42.857142857142854, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 82.26221079691517, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 41.613247863247864, "Goalie H2H": 51.08530083777609 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3449999816851106, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Knies", "Charlie Coyle", "Mathieu Olivier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 129 } }, { "id": "8475752", "name": "Tyler Pitlick", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "priorSOG": 0.8125, "currentTOI": 7.738095238095238, "currentFiveTOI": 7.738095238095238, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.06, "currentIXG": 0.15142857142857144, "priorTOI": 7.772916666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.029166666666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.034821428571428115, "ppTOIChange": -0.029166666666666667, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11009184121191022, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 35.0, "goalExpected": 0.10048127676494777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10461688184109058, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09559795441367074, "goalProbability": 0.09933048065717891, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3732526243508172, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9127041173881036, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.96923076923077, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.738095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9585268420306895, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2067.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0261828814460394, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7871243137391484, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.607734806629834, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": -7.095856208695054, "index": 92.90414379130495, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.686411149825783, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.923344947735195, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.637630662020907, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.139372822299652, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.686411149825783, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.9268292682926833, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.095856208695054, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0928571428571427, "attemptProjection": 0.9527589601477515, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3250.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.738095238095238, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5275059904153354, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0228080515024471, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0228080515024471, "baseline": 0.8125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475752", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9386848309014684, "adjustedSOG": 0.9313307320286772, "reductionPct": 0.783447077303745, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0228080515024471, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0105512200477953, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0228080515024471, "afterRecentZones": 1.0228080515024471, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0228080515024471, "adjusted": 1.0105512200477953, "playerFactor": 0.9880164890796008, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7871243137391484, "newChartFactor": 0.7850749540312314, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 38.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8982311755312615, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1388422276779944, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9313307320286772, "adjustedSOG": 0.9127041173881036, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 316, "beforeSOG": 0.9127041173881036, "adjustedSOG": 0.9127041173881036 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.11995560208363173, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11995560208363173, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11304018498931719, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286239856360788, "modelSOG": 0.9127041173881036, "historyGames": 39, "seasonGames": { "2025": 32, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 35.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11009184121191022, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.52317407133848, "btb": { "id": "8475752", "name": "Tyler Pitlick", "score": 36.52317407133848, "components": { "Goal model": 33.419023136246786, "SOG model": 19.02313624678663, "Unit attack": 53.57142857142857, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50.38560411311054, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5561680487151754, "unitPlayers": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 299 } }, { "id": "8475764", "name": "Cam Fowler", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.1097560975609757, "currentTOI": 21.516666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 16.71060606060606, "ppShare": 0.48771201107649703, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1348484848484848, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.612, "currentIXG": 0.05563636363636364, "priorTOI": 21.079268292682926, "priorPPTOI": 1.536991869918699, "deploymentChange": 0.43739837398373993, "ppTOIChange": 0.5978566149297857, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06453012628584395, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 191.0, "goalExpected": 0.07131804404616986, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06769047135533904, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06883430667680332, "goalProbability": 0.06545030128521655, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.33840053915867724, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1051899035538533, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9377096744945144, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.55500354861604, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.71060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.48771201107649703, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.643990266108646, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1409.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9829104091144485, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.712774398307326, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.661585365853657, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3726114335833178, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8994791334259242, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1030400114317824, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8617458817969456, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1154648749064562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2872959707795912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.6865671641791047, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cam Fowler", "Colton Parayko" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": -3.3506955524691904, "index": 96.64930444753081, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.06884377758164, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.660194174757282, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5533980582524274, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.701676963812886, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.850838481906443, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1650485436893205, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": 3.43466704772608, "index": 103.43466704772608, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.33333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.3506955524691904, "zonePPFit": 3.43466704772608, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0124732683538715, "attemptProjection": 1.191818280077672, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 11029.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.71060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 2.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.39130485829008854, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1409.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.643990266108646, "projectedAttempts": 0.5629503760344882, "onNet": 0.402020202020202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7484100718307181, "ppAdjusted": 0.17191752056687187, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1021457742157716, "baseline": 1.1097560975609757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475764", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1051899035538533, "adjustedSOG": 1.1051899035538533, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1051899035538533, "adjustedSOG": 1.1051899035538533, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 273, "beforeSOG": 1.1051899035538533, "adjustedSOG": 1.1051899035538533 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.07002651985179766, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06882878140705001, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06763090671209815, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11174033526188121 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778266749180591, "modelSOG": 1.1051899035538533, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 191.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06806282722513089, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06453012628584395, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.075349375969566, "btb": { "id": "8475764", "name": "Cam Fowler", "score": 38.075349375969566, "components": { "Goal model": 22.36503856041131, "SOG model": 30.077120822622106, "Unit attack": 31.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 51.724137931034484, "Shot quality": 12.596401028277635, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 41.41229141229141, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2044708103751285, "unitPlayers": [ "Cam Fowler", "Colton Parayko" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 287 } }, { "id": "8475790", "name": "Erik Gudbranson", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.918918918918919, "currentTOI": 16.5, "currentFiveTOI": 13.649999999999999, "ppShare": 0.006600660066006601, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.198, "currentIXG": 0.022000000000000002, "priorTOI": 17.77117117117117, "priorPPTOI": 0.0009009009009009009, "deploymentChange": -1.2711711711711686, "ppTOIChange": 0.032432432432432434, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04465350797025464, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.0361229845272424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.035689915060224425, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03547833505244326, "goalProbability": 0.03506053970840341, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.041779534403985075, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8089618524776432, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.93040293040293, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.649999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006600660066006601, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03707793856308708, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5584110706122196, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.582882882882885, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00020798800771584791, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0760464140127919, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.014065639651708, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dante Fabbro", "Erik Gudbranson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 2.5348804670930605, "index": 102.53488046709306, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.200000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.5348804670930605, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7666666666666664, "attemptProjection": 0.8251627744854642, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 7371.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.649999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.38171411049215515, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03707793856308708, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7959147205760653, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7959147205760653, "baseline": 0.918918918918919, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475790", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8451163999132068, "adjustedSOG": 0.8254712780384115, "reductionPct": 2.324546284607998, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7959147205760653, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7893024569492323, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7723723944380338, "afterRecentZones": 0.7930230098887174, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7695662175325579, "adjusted": 0.7631728507847397, "playerFactor": 0.9916922460963566, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.0760464140127919, "newChartFactor": 1.0679291577115315, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9466992036989468, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.23333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8254712780384115, "adjustedSOG": 0.8089618524776432, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 342, "beforeSOG": 0.8089618524776432, "adjustedSOG": 0.8089618524776432 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.028690096473840333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.029183589005850368, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02828244349335471, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0479417053261752 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787333211478706, "modelSOG": 0.8089618524776432, "historyGames": 62, "seasonGames": { "2024": 16, "2025": 37, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 52.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.019230769230769232, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04465350797025464, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.375250889527784, "btb": { "id": "8475790", "name": "Erik Gudbranson", "score": 28.375250889527784, "components": { "Goal model": 5.3984575835475574, "SOG model": 12.339331619537274, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 6.940874035989717, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 61.01249178172255, "Goalie H2H": 51.84691546077685 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 367 } }, { "id": "8475791", "name": "Taylor Hall", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.125, "priorSOG": 1.7125, "currentTOI": 13.016666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.939583333333333, "ppShare": 0.24440179142674345, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5916666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.287, "currentIXG": 0.285875, "priorTOI": 14.529583333333331, "priorPPTOI": 1.6079166666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.5129166666666638, "ppTOIChange": -0.016250000000000098, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 13.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13030050344351105, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.2556316188536309, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2440123116947103, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22557279936804508, "goalProbability": 0.21652201173832036, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9050787629724721, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9618620964458087, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.283755475147592, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.939583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24440179142674345, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.260013957926626, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.042724438158192, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 764.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3126.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.46138646467973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.661052086032651, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.652083333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3638991876500731, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0351331297471722, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1854555907807227, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.283755475147592, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 13.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020407", "date": "20241204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Hall", "Jordan Martinook", "Seth Jarvis" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": 1.1711043249057411, "index": 101.17110432490574, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.852295409181636, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.800399201596807, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.50698602794411, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.143712574850301, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.738522954091817, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9580838323353293, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": 6.181853026024086, "index": 106.18185302602409, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 90.58823529411765, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.1711043249057411, "zonePPFit": 6.181853026024086, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.39504707211641, "attemptProjection": 1.8913811886378766, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 5251.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.939583333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.5373024781970468, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 764.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.260013957926626, "projectedAttempts": 0.29686192726019983, "onNet": 0.5485823832105742, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8782915376216605, "ppAdjusted": 0.1399225927554827, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1432141303771433, "baseline": 1.7125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475791", "goals": 2, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.970928478226286, "adjustedSOG": 1.9618620964458087, "reductionPct": 0.4600056207334502, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8782915376216605, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8782915376216605, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8782915376216605, "afterRecentZones": 1.8782915376216605, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8782915376216605, "adjusted": 1.8782915376216605, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0351331297471722, "newChartFactor": 1.0351331297471722, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.172960685377904, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0196615144036563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1399225927554827, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12906533720559268, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13531140840863573, "afterRecentZones": 0.1399225927554827, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1353114084086357, "adjusted": 0.1248119564546872, "playerFactor": 0.9224052718286656, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1.1854555907807227, "newChartFactor": 1.1854555907807227, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.233333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9618620964458087, "adjustedSOG": 1.9618620964458087, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 88, "beforeSOG": 1.9618620964458087, "adjustedSOG": 1.9618620964458087 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.29577814704075495, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28942986085498895, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2560475422323728, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47378457994864953 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859600370517402, "modelSOG": 1.9618620964458087, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 298.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13087248322147652, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13030050344351105, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.89883300977118, "btb": { "id": "8475791", "name": "Taylor Hall", "score": 69.89883300977118, "components": { "Goal model": 80.719794344473, "SOG model": 77.6349614395887, "Unit attack": 86.9047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 80.719794344473, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 53.25854700854701, "Goalie H2H": 54.402404526166904 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.379271589784146, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Hall", "Jordan Martinook", "Seth Jarvis" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 17 } }, { "id": "8475794", "name": "Tyler Seguin", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.6363636363636362, "priorSOG": 1.1481481481481481, "currentTOI": 14.97878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 13.006060606060606, "ppShare": 0.26511466296038916, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 27, "currentTotalSOG": 29.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.156060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.225, "currentIXG": 0.2931818181818182, "priorTOI": 16.66172839506173, "priorPPTOI": 1.8555555555555556, "deploymentChange": -1.6829405162738489, "ppTOIChange": -0.6994949494949496, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15463820165654, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.274733685012536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.274733685012536, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2402255643963433, "goalProbability": 0.2402255643963433, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.776622348614314, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.129543336439888, "Current_PP_SOG60": 33.027522935779814, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.006060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26511466296038916, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.146018383978773, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0010657055328318, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 763.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.085111181272834, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.778443113772456, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.685802469135801, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.38414712829403214, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9795785760698041, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8839796184138087, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0299772133030785, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8659274958805275, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0068797914272152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.974041069352964, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 33.027522935779814, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -3.867346052873046, "index": 96.13265394712695, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.158730158730158, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.3015873015873, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.15873015873016, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.825396825396822, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.380952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.174603174603174, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": 0.9992404434359514, "index": 100.99924044343595, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.833333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.867346052873046, "zonePPFit": 0.9992404434359514, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.427972865564584, "attemptProjection": 2.202653746970643, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8584.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.006060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 2.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.515560288723228, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 763.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.146018383978773, "projectedAttempts": 0.8110746098932339, "onNet": 0.5944892594942446, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3155024299463989, "ppAdjusted": 0.5452654217757602, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.3153133062676137, "baseline": 1.1481481481481481, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 27, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475794", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8484472430198273, "adjustedSOG": 1.776622348614314, "reductionPct": 3.885688091815498, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3155024299463989, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2538595472220528, "afterRecentDefense": 1.277380204238085, "afterRecentZones": 1.311049895516763, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.277380204238085, "adjusted": 1.217523683769736, "playerFactor": 0.9531411867275245, "defenseFactor": 0.9600625800028445, "oldChartFactor": 0.8839796184138087, "newChartFactor": 0.8780973915865878, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7013759518907082, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8139534883720929, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5452654217757602, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5400399614837424, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5286945585928403, "afterRecentZones": 0.5451697327971837, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5286017776456716, "adjusted": 0.5235360106099006, "playerFactor": 0.9904166666666666, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1.0299772133030785, "newChartFactor": 1.0296668820108918, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8923976608187134, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.776622348614314, "adjustedSOG": 1.776622348614314, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 110, "beforeSOG": 1.776622348614314, "adjustedSOG": 1.776622348614314 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.29582010961979155, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29582010961979155, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2560787597411932, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855469541247236, "modelSOG": 1.776622348614314, "historyGames": 58, "seasonGames": { "2024": 20, "2025": 27, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 106.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1792452830188679, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15463820165654, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 62.34442868540023, "btb": { "id": "8475794", "name": "Tyler Seguin", "score": 62.34442868540023, "components": { "Goal model": 83.29048843187661, "SOG model": 71.97943444730078, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 62.06896551724138, "Shot quality": 83.80462724935732, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4450000464940294, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 68 } }, { "id": "8475798", "name": "Mikael Granlund", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 2.0172413793103448, "currentTOI": 19.8, "currentFiveTOI": 11.896666666666667, "ppShare": 0.8429087987143431, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.496666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.733, "currentIXG": 0.2733, "priorTOI": 19.17385057471264, "priorPPTOI": 2.9304597701149424, "deploymentChange": 0.626149425287359, "ppTOIChange": 0.5662068965517246, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021242", "date": "20250408", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021019", "date": "20250309", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.23076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13860208121488482, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 303.0, "goalExpected": 0.28948517242706745, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28948517242706745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2513511065253373, "goalProbability": 0.2513511065253373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.088606245228437, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.052115438498179, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.863679694947569, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.896666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8429087987143431, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.964815069756814, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9834267095119533, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2098.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2489.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.244890088700347, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.590311825848206, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.412068965517241, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5596387841758472, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0470973460042345, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.08027892007867, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.386753400354819, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021242", "date": "20250408", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021019", "date": "20250309", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020555", "date": "20241223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 27.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020184", "date": "20241102", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeff Malott", "Mikael Granlund", "Beckett Sennecke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": 12.360852908193863, "index": 112.36085290819386, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.36448598130841, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.350467289719626, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.21028037383178, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.47196261682243, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.10747663551402, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.4953271028037385, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": 23.447577887433113, "index": 123.44757788743311, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.55555555555556, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.444444444444446, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.360852908193863, "zonePPFit": 23.447577887433113, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.001586729863146, "attemptProjection": 2.270778915151185, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7138.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.896666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.50017363851618, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2098.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.964815069756814, "projectedAttempts": 1.3606610344255985, "onNet": 0.48426142848561304, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.394571469303982, "ppAdjusted": 0.6416113532031835, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1361828225071653, "baseline": 2.0172413793103448, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475798", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.088606245228437, "adjustedSOG": 2.088606245228437, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.088606245228437, "adjustedSOG": 2.088606245228437, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 73, "beforeSOG": 2.088606245228437, "adjustedSOG": 2.088606245228437 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.2855190835151128, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27569711842375244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24837600258643835, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7418798613445493 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856638729598588, "modelSOG": 2.088606245228437, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 83, "2025": 58, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 303.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1419141914191419, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13860208121488482, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.98115420266147, "btb": { "id": "8475798", "name": "Mikael Granlund", "score": 63.98115420266147, "components": { "Goal model": 85.08997429305913, "SOG model": 81.49100257069409, "Unit attack": 30.952380952380953, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 68.96551724137932, "Shot quality": 79.94858611825192, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 66.01307189542483, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.20863309298682, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeff Malott", "Mikael Granlund", "Beckett Sennecke" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 57 } }, { "id": "8475799", "name": "Nino Niederreiter", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1.360655737704918, "currentTOI": 11.733333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.65, "ppShare": 0.23904761904761904, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0458333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.377, "currentIXG": 0.172125, "priorTOI": 13.769125683060109, "priorPPTOI": 1.5112021857923499, "deploymentChange": -2.0357923497267763, "ppTOIChange": -0.4653688524590165, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11071811417572922, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.11647996838848616, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11890201102822684, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10995207410761386, "goalProbability": 0.11210519960208826, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.21531254944743977, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0520407546285684, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.338028169014085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.65, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23904761904761904, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.291400432900433, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.010227875253061, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 502.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2100.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.745161069694276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.508768757909962, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.984426229508196, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3311353627556789, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9683312445772679, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.773805266056103, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.967741935483871, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -7.539824464796567, "index": 92.46017553520343, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.86868686868687, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.86868686868687, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 57.35353535353536, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0606060606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424248, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.424242424242424, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.539824464796567, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9562499999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.7363448651553369, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 5112.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.65, "projectedAttempts": 1.5000000000000002, "onNet": 0.5445223126867978, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 502.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.291400432900433, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8462974325776684, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8462974325776684, "baseline": 1.360655737704918, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475799", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0520407546285684, "adjustedSOG": 1.0520407546285684, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0520407546285684, "adjustedSOG": 1.0520407546285684, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0520407546285684, "adjustedSOG": 1.0520407546285684 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.12504943442436656, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12504943442436656, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11754672206350057, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286559504809939, "modelSOG": 1.0520407546285684, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 61, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10330578512396695, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11071811417572922, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475842", "name": "Sam Carrick", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 1.0273972602739727, "currentTOI": 7.383333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 7.258333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0081799591002045, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.07400000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.018500000000000003, "priorTOI": 10.470319634703197, "priorPPTOI": 0.011187214611872146, "deploymentChange": -3.086986301369863, "ppTOIChange": 0.02214611872146119, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020808", "date": "20260123", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020116", "date": "20251023", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021168", "date": "20250329", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10717350239831802, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.07215836139980648, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.070840045322093, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0696164526965522, "goalProbability": 0.06838910426887597, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12273484276762309, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6732854650175073, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0665901262916186, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.258333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0081799591002045, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04296905661936337, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0027135944463237, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 978.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.960264900662252, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.37716894977169, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002334128997515413, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.070626994749305, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.977374422920953, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0464034411566963, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0665901262916186, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020808", "date": "20260123", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020116", "date": "20251023", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021168", "date": "20250329", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020261", "date": "20241114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 111, "fitPct": -0.7541859026349016, "index": 99.2458140973651, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.567567567567568, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.684684684684685, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.774774774774777, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.08108108108108, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.207207207207207, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 44.68468468468468, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.7541859026349016, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.26160086028917406, "attemptProjection": 0.665834297985974, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1742.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.258333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.2500000000000002, "onNet": 0.48205496161297273, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04296905661936337, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.46371757913757405, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.46371757913757405, "baseline": 1.0273972602739727, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475842", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6891894515921335, "adjustedSOG": 0.6870259847117421, "reductionPct": 0.3139146827325079, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.46371757913757405, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46371757913757405, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46371757913757405, "afterRecentZones": 0.4601118010035883, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4601118010035883, "adjusted": 0.4601118010035883, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.977374422920953, "newChartFactor": 0.9504311222071125, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 29.033333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3936221524642403, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.13333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6870259847117421, "adjustedSOG": 0.6732854650175073, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6732854650175073, "adjustedSOG": 0.6732854650175073 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.02435344094560515, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024321307366087955, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024059288614661355, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.003136097232082219 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865110623562687, "modelSOG": 0.6732854650175073, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 73, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10717350239831802, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475848", "name": "Brendan Gallagher", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5714285714285714, "currentTOI": 10.5375, "currentFiveTOI": 10.176388888888889, "ppShare": 0.004491498235482836, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.019444444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.323, "currentIXG": 0.19358333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.35064935064935, "priorPPTOI": 1.338095238095238, "deploymentChange": -1.8131493506493506, "ppTOIChange": -1.3186507936507936, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021059", "date": "20260315", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10726345055225717, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.14558042096414933, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14417475422039688, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13547963828279377, "goalProbability": 0.13426355625823921, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.121608202455456, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3572229889548884, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.896001091852054, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.176388888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004491498235482836, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.022442571865093526, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.043378507998391, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3117.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.90443768507141, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.988029763830475, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.745238095238095, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2816440030557678, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.067269741494368, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.948625506985128, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021059", "date": "20260315", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": 2.242324716478933, "index": 102.24232471647893, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.840909090909093, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.159090909090907, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.272727272727275, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.954545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.242324716478933, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.3763898631489628, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7327.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.176388888888889, "projectedAttempts": 3.083333333333333, "onNet": 0.42585637874132237, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 14.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.022442571865093526, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2631949315744815, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2631949315744815, "baseline": 1.5714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475848", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021059", "date": "20260315", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3864883875161174, "adjustedSOG": 1.3849214173009066, "reductionPct": 0.11301718999738863, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2631949315744815, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2605833145491299, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2631949315744815, "afterRecentZones": 1.2631949315744815, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2631949315744815, "adjusted": 1.2605833145491299, "playerFactor": 0.9979325304748521, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.067269741494368, "newChartFactor": 1.067269741494368, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 50.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9848824288479461, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4037209798950263, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3849214173009066, "adjustedSOG": 1.3572229889548884, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 202, "beforeSOG": 1.3572229889548884, "adjustedSOG": 1.3572229889548884 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 280.0, "goalExpected": 0.13305025677437185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13598284697328022, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12457890483725184, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2563490652624234 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12867374660409978, "modelSOG": 1.3572229889548884, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 281.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.099644128113879, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10726345055225717, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.58979621937448, "btb": { "id": "8475848", "name": "Brendan Gallagher", "score": 42.58979621937448, "components": { "Goal model": 48.58611825192802, "SOG model": 48.329048843187664, "Unit attack": 11.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 63.239074550128535, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 54.558404558404554, "Goalie H2H": 47.57975797579758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9614017026153712, "unitPlayers": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 239 } }, { "id": "8475913", "name": "Mark Stone", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.1666666666666665, "currentTOI": 18.257692307692306, "currentFiveTOI": 13.432051282051283, "ppShare": 0.7037609479649665, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5025641025641026, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.327, "currentIXG": 0.4097692307692308, "priorTOI": 19.215, "priorPPTOI": 3.288611111111111, "deploymentChange": -0.957307692307694, "ppTOIChange": 0.21395299145299163, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1753081111458936, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 287.0, "goalExpected": 0.3428138009756004, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34448116021132025, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.290229642194753, "goalProbability": 0.2914120982925878, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11824560978347942, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9554930957547452, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8105373675670515, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.541727672035138, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.432051282051283, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7037609479649665, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5429401313095283, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3076923076923077, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9927827949489821, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2732.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.878913731577993, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.250950249176451, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.778055555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7201851060546711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9433368775474039, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8893962694446704, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0221552737584414, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0233003943140793, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.250295159386068, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ivan Barbashev", "Jack Eichel", "Mark Stone" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": -3.686791018510988, "index": 96.31320898148901, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.46031746031746, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.53968253968254, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.761904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": 0.7385091252813822, "index": 100.73850912528138, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 77.33333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.333333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.686791018510988, "zonePPFit": 0.7385091252813822, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8600594179642231, "attemptProjection": 1.8255826506438002, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 10477.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.432051282051283, "projectedAttempts": 2.230769230769231, "onNet": 0.49429753101892465, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2732.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.5429401313095283, "projectedAttempts": 0.8559079380176753, "onNet": 0.5484982311729751, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9922212740123897, "ppAdjusted": 0.5429074525993143, "other": 0.3076923076923077 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8428210343040117, "baseline": 2.1666666666666665, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8475913", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9723592872490736, "adjustedSOG": 1.9554930957547452, "reductionPct": 0.8551277448974548, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9922212740123897, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9919870083217281, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9643386373921627, "afterRecentZones": 0.9922212740123897, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.964338637392163, "adjusted": 0.9641109548551753, "playerFactor": 0.9997638977345101, "defenseFactor": 0.9478369959776317, "oldChartFactor": 0.8893962694446704, "newChartFactor": 0.8767972421556727, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9985011263212616, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.753604198526345, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5429074525993143, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5429074525993143, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5429074525993143, "afterRecentZones": 0.5429074525993143, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5429074525993143, "adjusted": 0.5429074525993143, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0221552737584414, "newChartFactor": 1.0221552737584414, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2835330044632371, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9554930957547452, "adjustedSOG": 1.9554930957547452, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 91, "beforeSOG": 1.9554930957547452, "adjustedSOG": 1.9554930957547452 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.34794742615152363, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.35166030671530923, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29386400047443906, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26169374336494355 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844239013460826, "modelSOG": 1.9554930957547452, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 60, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 55.0, "historyShots": 287.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1916376306620209, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1753081111458936, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.0779394392103, "btb": { "id": "8475913", "name": "Mark Stone", "score": 70.0779394392103, "components": { "Goal model": 93.573264781491, "SOG model": 76.86375321336762, "Unit attack": 75.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 86.20689655172414, "Shot quality": 94.60154241645245, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 50.7560815253123, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0537795518379873, "unitPlayers": [ "Ivan Barbashev", "Jack Eichel", "Mark Stone" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 16 } }, { "id": "8476278", "name": "Colin Blackwell", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.8714285714285714, "currentTOI": 10.012962962962963, "currentFiveTOI": 9.005555555555555, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.91, "currentIXG": 0.10111111111111111, "priorTOI": 11.892619047619048, "priorPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.8796560846560855, "ppTOIChange": -0.008333333333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.35 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09648484653848309, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.09961630944977455, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09961630944977455, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09481533778435451, "goalProbability": 0.09481533778435451, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0324554893709912, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.883405305367058, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.005555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0126724991491074, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1998.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.929215873248735, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.737857142857143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017252116540151143, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9388981467454425, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9450783425391228, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8873323043392369, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.461999078765546, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Colin Blackwell", "Justin Hryckowian", "Matthew Seminoff" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": -1.8307219153625738, "index": 98.16927808463743, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 42.11180124223603, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.832298136645964, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.422360248447205, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.6521739130434785, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.807453416149068, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1739130434782608, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8307219153625738, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2942208502300936, "attemptProjection": 1.0404651667204763, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 4863.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.005555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.8888888888888886, "onNet": 0.5529776858282843, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0562318973641738, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.167343008475285, "baseline": 0.8714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476278", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0489772336565995, "adjustedSOG": 1.0324554893709912, "reductionPct": 1.5750336380529029, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0562318973641738, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0562318973641738, "afterRecentDefense": 1.02869565688816, "afterRecentZones": 1.0562318973641736, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.02869565688816, "adjusted": 1.02869565688816, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.973929739724079, "oldChartFactor": 0.9450783425391228, "newChartFactor": 0.9450783425391228, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2666811373996094, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8785529715762274, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0324554893709912, "adjustedSOG": 1.0324554893709912, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 297, "beforeSOG": 1.0324554893709912, "adjustedSOG": 1.0324554893709912 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.09324856641977156, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09324856641977156, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08903296366311338, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866908629620494, "modelSOG": 1.0324554893709912, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 70, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 137.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.072992700729927, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09648484653848309, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.3536286858909, "btb": { "id": "8476278", "name": "Colin Blackwell", "score": 35.3536286858909, "components": { "Goal model": 32.904884318766065, "SOG model": 23.90745501285347, "Unit attack": 23.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 29.56298200514139, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.26685660018993, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1819173016368896, "unitPlayers": [ "Colin Blackwell", "Justin Hryckowian", "Matthew Seminoff" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 309 } }, { "id": "8476292", "name": "Ondrej Palat", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.0375, "currentTOI": 13.263636363636364, "currentFiveTOI": 12.05151515151515, "ppShare": 0.04454067429631921, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.21818181818181817, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.55, "currentIXG": 0.1409090909090909, "priorTOI": 12.819791666666665, "priorPPTOI": 0.7170833333333333, "deploymentChange": 0.4438446969696983, "ppTOIChange": -0.49890151515151515, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020911", "date": "20250223", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020336", "date": "20241125", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11980225482034618, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 191.0, "goalExpected": 0.13263117461950205, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13263117461950205, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12421195459249353, "goalProbability": 0.12421195459249353, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1070841264080875, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.431229570027659, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.05151515151515, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04454067429631921, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.22239968506593932, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9949576308000262, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 144.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.815183009489381, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.275421266705404, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.526041666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.15644899515759977, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0144422562238045, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1087416843722202, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1247544158639364, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.023723137036003, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020911", "date": "20250223", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020336", "date": "20241125", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 3.6247228124073416, "index": 103.62472281240734, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.45378151260504, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.65546218487395, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.87394957983193, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.386554621848741, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3445378151260505, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.6247228124073416, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2270048173061123, "attemptProjection": 1.15525411605473, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7954.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.05151515151515, "projectedAttempts": 2.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.4967619376565063, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 144.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.22239968506593932, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.191129466680421, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.191129466680421, "baseline": 1.0375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476292", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1296776800082526, "adjustedSOG": 1.1296776800082526, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1296776800082526, "adjustedSOG": 1.1070841264080875, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 271, "beforeSOG": 1.1070841264080875, "adjustedSOG": 1.1070841264080875 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.10775279969477465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10775279969477465, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10215048232537927, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862456152720736, "modelSOG": 1.1070841264080875, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 191.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11518324607329843, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11980225482034618, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.31628285592746, "btb": { "id": "8476292", "name": "Ondrej Palat", "score": 43.31628285592746, "components": { "Goal model": 45.24421593830334, "SOG model": 30.591259640102827, "Unit attack": 44.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 43.44473007712082, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.476002629848786, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4070685232060374, "unitPlayers": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 234 } }, { "id": "8476331", "name": "Dylan DeMelo", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 0.9146341463414634, "currentTOI": 21.034848484848485, "currentFiveTOI": 18.098484848484848, "ppShare": 0.016666666666666666, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07424242424242423, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.202, "currentIXG": 0.018363636363636363, "priorTOI": 21.45731707317073, "priorPPTOI": 0.1111788617886179, "deploymentChange": -0.4224685883222463, "ppTOIChange": -0.03693643754619366, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04956450165631051, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.035526344166610595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03626506621123418, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.034902690789207824, "goalProbability": 0.03561536617980837, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07126753906005479, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7167699256406709, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.411050648807032, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.098484848484848, "Current_PP_Share": 0.016666666666666666, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09003787878787879, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.766424251873796, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.25020325203252, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024361566622426892, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8810290554625654, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.881346887012155, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2894521668029437, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Elias Salomonsson", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -3.965698151247821, "index": 96.03430184875218, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.5625, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.625, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.3125, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.6875, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5625, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.965698151247821, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6409795541906581, "attemptProjection": 0.5287413361562935, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 11945.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.098484848484848, "projectedAttempts": 1.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.4301009155917931, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 49.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09003787878787879, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5848604451734758, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5848604451734758, "baseline": 0.9146341463414634, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476331", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7167699256406709, "adjustedSOG": 0.7167699256406709, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7167699256406709, "adjustedSOG": 0.7167699256406709, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 358, "beforeSOG": 0.7167699256406709, "adjustedSOG": 0.7167699256406709 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 157.0, "goalExpected": 0.03497086904156728, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03497086904156728, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0343664543214736, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057876414273281114, "modelSOG": 0.7167699256406709, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04430379746835443, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04956450165631051, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 27.957904024669862, "btb": { "id": "8476331", "name": "Dylan DeMelo", "score": 27.957904024669862, "components": { "Goal model": 5.141388174807198, "SOG model": 8.226221079691516, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 1.2853470437017995, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 51.58730158730159, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5248266662977557, "unitPlayers": [ "Elias Salomonsson", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 374 } }, { "id": "8476372", "name": "Nick Seeler", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.6153846153846154, "priorSOG": 1.175, "currentTOI": 19.702564102564104, "currentFiveTOI": 15.748717948717948, "ppShare": 0.0038353362311429303, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.019230769230769232, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.62 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.226, "currentIXG": 0.017384615384615384, "priorTOI": 17.686041666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.036041666666666666, "deploymentChange": 2.0165224358974356, "ppTOIChange": -0.016810897435897434, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.5 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04503904903432881, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.04054427625844219, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04009438184199276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039733353444064375, "goalProbability": 0.03930123764552226, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04321157985421112, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9002027602212316, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7583848909150115, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.748717948717948, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0038353362311429303, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.018710103215344838, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.181070408679137, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.247291666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008464362088058959, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.172180683449875, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.051087266166556, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nick Seeler", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 143, "fitPct": 5.739356114995829, "index": 105.73935611499583, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.81118881118881, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.5594405594405595, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.237762237762238, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.993006993006993, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5594405594405595, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8391608391608394, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.739356114995829, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6846153846153846, "attemptProjection": 0.7887404058487456, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 12284.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.748717948717948, "projectedAttempts": 1.7692307692307692, "onNet": 0.35556930840365136, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.018710103215344838, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5828317413859112, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7366778952320652, "baseline": 1.175, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476372", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9120067371392391, "adjustedSOG": 0.9002027602212316, "reductionPct": 1.294286153524915, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5828317413859112, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5631584465225654, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5828317413859112, "afterRecentZones": 0.5828317413859112, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5828317413859112, "adjusted": 0.5631584465225654, "playerFactor": 0.9662453269676686, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.172180683449875, "newChartFactor": 1.172180683449875, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.81666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8007300697477349, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9002027602212316, "adjustedSOG": 0.9002027602212316, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 318, "beforeSOG": 0.9002027602212316, "adjustedSOG": 0.9002027602212316 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.02803714738584179, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.027518629417140363, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027647754213697952, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05043128476849047 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791089925749381, "modelSOG": 0.9002027602212316, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03804347826086957, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04503904903432881, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 20.04662061429715, "btb": { "id": "8476372", "name": "Nick Seeler", "score": 20.04662061429715, "components": { "Goal model": 7.455012853470437, "SOG model": 18.508997429305914, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 0.0, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 35.5119825708061, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.3506011532950812, "unitPlayers": [ "Nick Seeler", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 394 } }, { "id": "8476374", "name": "Sean Kuraly", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.3414634146341464, "currentTOI": 12.741666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.475, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.35200000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.08800000000000001, "priorTOI": 13.329268292682928, "priorPPTOI": 0.04085365853658537, "deploymentChange": -0.5876016260162604, "ppTOIChange": -0.04085365853658537, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020764", "date": "20250123", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020594", "date": "20241231", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08128422065274672, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.11869964478720785, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11869964478720785, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11192550148710866, "goalProbability": 0.11192550148710866, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4603036583730449, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.457516339869281, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9910807999229769, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 959.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.718768225825265, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.454878048780488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00931711568056663, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.777895217198112, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.457516339869281, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020764", "date": "20250123", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020594", "date": "20241231", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020491", "date": "20241215", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020328", "date": "20241123", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -7.403492760062932, "index": 92.59650723993707, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.04225352112676, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.63380281690141, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.859154929577464, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.732394366197184, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.63380281690141, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.098591549295776, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.403492760062932, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7, "attemptProjection": 1.4784013599879577, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2754.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.475, "projectedAttempts": 3.2500000000000004, "onNet": 0.5319527442652937, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5892006799939788, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5892006799939788, "baseline": 1.3414634146341464, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476374", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4901057738500458, "adjustedSOG": 1.4901057738500458, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5892006799939788, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5892006799939788, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5892006799939788, "afterRecentZones": 1.5892006799939788, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5892006799939788, "adjusted": 1.5892006799939788, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.777895217198112, "newChartFactor": 0.774145887853272, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2256017558130021, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4901057738500458, "adjustedSOG": 1.4603036583730449, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.4603036583730449, "adjustedSOG": 1.4603036583730449 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.16217454525662908, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15598759984025937, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14970722298402445, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5277022491448458 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12872971519740495, "modelSOG": 1.4603036583730449, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05825242718446602, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08128422065274672, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476389", "name": "Vincent Trocheck", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.7014925373134329, "currentTOI": 16.819444444444446, "currentFiveTOI": 13.641666666666666, "ppShare": 0.24924760601915186, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2652777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.8360000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.23633333333333337, "priorTOI": 20.551243781094527, "priorPPTOI": 2.8661691542288557, "deploymentChange": -3.731799336650081, "ppTOIChange": -1.600891376451078, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021046", "date": "20260314", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021192", "date": "20250402", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021046", "date": "20250313", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.133314264779136, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 334.0, "goalExpected": 0.21097395738368538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1987437581648987, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19020484420879438, "goalProbability": 0.18024007679037837, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.996476741841601, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.582531004714383, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.398289554062309, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.85510428100988, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.641666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24924760601915186, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3132765822488803, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0307233185554783, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 911.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.03375040320527, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.998264190244749, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.652487562189055, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7822288426953398, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9140331895769136, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8984864036674305, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9697059974702931, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8813968926579583, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.467055465938702, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.585987261146497, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021046", "date": "20260314", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021192", "date": "20250402", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021046", "date": "20250313", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Cooley", "Vincent Trocheck", "Dylan Guenther" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": -2.8655603474362152, "index": 97.13443965256378, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.363247863247864, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.363247863247867, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.991452991452995, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.286324786324787, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.551282051282052, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": -3.3837865444189816, "index": 96.61621345558102, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.867924528301888, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.33962264150944, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.754716981132075, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7735849056603774, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.754716981132075, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.8655603474362152, "zonePPFit": -3.3837865444189816, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.448414254092722, "attemptProjection": 1.558032378537311, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9822.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.641666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.47484839099637344, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 911.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3132765822488803, "projectedAttempts": 0.5189676944122907, "onNet": 0.5182894386805001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0103987815849904, "ppAdjusted": 0.2428245347300261, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5032233163150166, "baseline": 1.7014925373134329, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476389", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.582531004714383, "adjustedSOG": 1.582531004714383, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.582531004714383, "adjustedSOG": 1.582531004714383, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 145, "beforeSOG": 1.582531004714383, "adjustedSOG": 1.582531004714383 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 328.0, "goalExpected": 0.14445729246386438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14445729246386438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13450812536067056, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858390914145024, "modelSOG": 1.582531004714383, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 67, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 334.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1347305389221557, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.133314264779136, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.63419781948213, "btb": { "id": "8476389", "name": "Vincent Trocheck", "score": 57.63419781948213, "components": { "Goal model": 67.86632390745501, "SOG model": 62.98200514138817, "Unit attack": 58.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 73.52185089974293, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 59.171597633136095, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.650605413660558, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Cooley", "Vincent Trocheck", "Dylan Guenther" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 100 } }, { "id": "8476392", "name": "Adam Lowry", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.0142857142857142, "currentTOI": 15.174242424242424, "currentFiveTOI": 12.86969696969697, "ppShare": 0.017346938775510204, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07727272727272727, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.979, "currentIXG": 0.089, "priorTOI": 14.971428571428572, "priorPPTOI": 0.07142857142857142, "deploymentChange": 0.20281385281385234, "ppTOIChange": 0.005844155844155846, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1253992179686522, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.1034999350903415, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1056520755782503, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09832391873065995, "goalProbability": 0.1002623656788648, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.19384469482048583, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8253634812636139, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.96680009418413, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.86969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.017346938775510204, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09371289424860854, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9886036540375441, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 51.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.365207176824994, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.56690476190476, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.015651463539088573, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8925409245341296, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7675748223828414, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2778355879292405, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": -7.747505920571953, "index": 92.25249407942805, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.925119128658952, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.372362151123212, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.037440435670526, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.15588835942818, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.0932607215793055, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4159292035398232, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.747505920571953, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6318181818181818, "attemptProjection": 0.7670124700129122, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 8494.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.86969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 1.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.4852689983390075, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 51.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09371289424860854, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6085062350064561, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.699415325915547, "baseline": 1.0142857142857142, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476392", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8253634812636139, "adjustedSOG": 0.8253634812636139, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8253634812636139, "adjustedSOG": 0.8253634812636139, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 339, "beforeSOG": 0.8253634812636139, "adjustedSOG": 0.8253634812636139 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.10631480156366949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10631480156366949, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10085844764786696, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860982595285306, "modelSOG": 0.8253634812636139, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 178.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12359550561797752, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1253992179686522, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.96125942391215, "btb": { "id": "8476392", "name": "Adam Lowry", "score": 33.96125942391215, "components": { "Goal model": 34.96143958868895, "SOG model": 13.110539845758355, "Unit attack": 35.714285714285715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 21.336760925449873, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 46.377696377696374, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2656322533410593, "unitPlayers": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 321 } }, { "id": "8476393", "name": "Nick Cousins", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.9753086419753086, "currentTOI": 9.069444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 8.6875, "ppShare": 0.020030152918371742, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12916666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.494, "currentIXG": 0.041166666666666664, "priorTOI": 11.423456790123456, "priorPPTOI": 0.053292181069958845, "deploymentChange": -2.3540123456790116, "ppTOIChange": 0.07587448559670784, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11319083449341251, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.07829970502403005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07985505847627407, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0753127484047079, "goalProbability": 0.07674984602663912, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14370976219312132, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6917495164203153, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.60431654676259, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.6875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020030152918371742, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09543747273259442, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.174766644225696, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.30843621399177, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01078620450639681, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7697596300448295, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8852235745515539, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.09711684370258, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nick Cousins", "Stephen Halliday", "Andre Burakovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": -7.674678998505684, "index": 92.32532100149432, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.339449541284402, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.871559633027521, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.412844036697244, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.972477064220183, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.10091743119266, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.302752293577982, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.674678998505684, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5901490497010359, "attemptProjection": 0.5309728126303841, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 6255.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.6875, "projectedAttempts": 1.0833333333333333, "onNet": 0.5200060855012931, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09543747273259442, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.56056093116571, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.56056093116571, "baseline": 0.9753086419753086, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476393", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7264600154895495, "adjustedSOG": 0.7058668534901177, "reductionPct": 2.834727522553937, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.56056093116571, "afterPlayerForm": 0.56056093116571, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5262389944999902, "afterRecentZones": 0.56056093116571, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5262389944999903, "adjusted": 0.5262389944999903, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.914945757630518, "oldChartFactor": 0.7697596300448295, "newChartFactor": 0.7697596300448295, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 41.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5335580753907447, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6086721404650821, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.3666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7058668534901177, "adjustedSOG": 0.6917495164203153, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 363, "beforeSOG": 0.6917495164203153, "adjustedSOG": 0.6917495164203153 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.0581621515818773, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056271140573881544, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.056503054489829334, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17858511098517021 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286366279582019, "modelSOG": 0.6917495164203153, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1032258064516129, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11319083449341251, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.724380478806985, "btb": { "id": "8476393", "name": "Nick Cousins", "score": 33.724380478806985, "components": { "Goal model": 26.47814910025707, "SOG model": 6.940874035989717, "Unit attack": 20.238095238095237, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 5.655526992287918, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 56.71550671550671, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.10334896775496, "unitPlayers": [ "Nick Cousins", "Stephen Halliday", "Andre Burakovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 324 } }, { "id": "8476399", "name": "Blake Coleman", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.1538461538461537, "priorSOG": 2.550724637681159, "currentTOI": 15.770512820512822, "currentFiveTOI": 12.41025641025641, "ppShare": 0.27653301886792453, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2025641025641025, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.15 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.941, "currentIXG": 0.3800769230769231, "priorTOI": 17.328743961352657, "priorPPTOI": 1.2492753623188406, "deploymentChange": -1.558231140839835, "ppTOIChange": -0.04671125975473811, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021281", "date": "20260412", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020448", "date": "20251206", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020060", "date": "20251015", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021188", "date": "20250401", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020611", "date": "20250102", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10415854402555699, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 398.0, "goalExpected": 0.2159417651161028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22482948916497683, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1942177748584916, "goalProbability": 0.2013476139647147, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7129839106223113, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0732026079696158, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.809917355371901, "Current_PP_SOG60": 23.02771855010661, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.41025641025641, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27653301886792453, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1649101140441056, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9585268420306895, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 938.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.184008163562812, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.74477958236659, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.255555555555555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3317197248965781, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7838756743645519, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.859403888858907, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9016728254962219, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.2434607645875255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 23.632385120350108, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021281", "date": "20260412", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020448", "date": "20251206", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020060", "date": "20251015", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021188", "date": "20250401", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020611", "date": "20250102", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020158", "date": "20241030", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": -7.2041441878482715, "index": 92.79585581215173, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.844919786096257, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.989304812834227, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.54545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.27807486631016, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.919786096256685, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.422459893048126, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": -4.686537038036434, "index": 95.31346296196357, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.4782608695652173, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.93478260869565, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.369565217391305, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.478260869565215, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.2041441878482715, "zonePPFit": -4.686537038036434, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.853126232230852, "attemptProjection": 1.8228535666450998, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 9680.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.41025641025641, "projectedAttempts": 2.8461538461538463, "onNet": 0.5259814182365686, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 938.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1649101140441056, "projectedAttempts": 0.5961160498306723, "onNet": 0.587497695002766, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.362503801395297, "ppAdjusted": 0.3985630211196019, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.837989899437976, "baseline": 2.550724637681159, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476399", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020060", "date": "20251015", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1230837947352494, "adjustedSOG": 2.115512865275118, "reductionPct": 0.3566005957421736, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.362503801395297, "afterPlayerForm": 1.362503801395297, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3519738180977787, "afterRecentZones": 1.362503801395297, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3519738180977787, "adjusted": 1.3519738180977787, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.7838756743645519, "newChartFactor": 0.7832980861424043, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1936574255414836, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3985630211196019, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3964747886502351, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3985630211196019, "afterRecentZones": 0.3985630211196019, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3985630211196019, "adjusted": 0.3964747886502351, "playerFactor": 0.9947605965463109, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.859403888858907, "newChartFactor": 0.859403888858907, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.233333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9405080213903745, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.115512865275118, "adjustedSOG": 2.0732026079696158, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 74, "beforeSOG": 2.0732026079696158, "adjustedSOG": 2.0732026079696158 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 395.0, "goalExpected": 0.2261607682642632, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2261607682642632, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20241013578036984, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12870954924727385, "modelSOG": 2.0732026079696158, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 398.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09798994974874371, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10415854402555699, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.33566823266597, "btb": { "id": "8476399", "name": "Blake Coleman", "score": 60.33566823266597, "components": { "Goal model": 69.40874035989717, "SOG model": 81.23393316195373, "Unit attack": 97.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.83033419023137, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 48.77136752136752, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.1965044000721345, "unitPlayers": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 78 } }, { "id": "8476419", "name": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 1.1081081081081081, "currentTOI": 15.503030303030302, "currentFiveTOI": 12.31060606060606, "ppShare": 0.03464274667491494, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1696969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.193, "currentIXG": 0.10845454545454546, "priorTOI": 15.66554054054054, "priorPPTOI": 0.3310810810810811, "deploymentChange": -0.1625102375102383, "ppTOIChange": -0.16138411138411138, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14195087152038777, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 216.0, "goalExpected": 0.17473324975082935, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17473324975082935, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1603190239926046, "goalProbability": 0.1603190239926046, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2309417186335005, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.9876923076923076, "Current_PP_SOG60": 32.142857142857146, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.31060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03464274667491494, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.17297753282906392, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0082313293627068, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 112.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.199844450205548, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.162612612612612, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07223330963508698, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071185892250445, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1605432367673953, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8819247877072383, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 32.72727272727273, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": 5.351441225579848, "index": 105.35144122557985, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.828976848394325, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.828976848394325, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.33308439133682, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.722180731889469, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.51008215085885, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7766990291262137, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.351441225579848, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.383312009672975, "attemptProjection": 1.326087106841046, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8125.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.31060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 1.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.500188737517587, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 112.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.17297753282906392, "projectedAttempts": 0.09266653544414138, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9308971314948924, "ppAdjusted": 0.060166063125754274, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3546995582570105, "baseline": 1.1081081081081081, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476419", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2560629781974495, "adjustedSOG": 1.2560629781974495, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2560629781974495, "adjustedSOG": 1.2309417186335005, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 237, "beforeSOG": 1.2309417186335005, "adjustedSOG": 1.2309417186335005 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.15411886407596073, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15411886407596073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1428298717793509, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856475400442535, "modelSOG": 1.2309417186335005, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 74, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 216.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14814814814814814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14195087152038777, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.54317604703209, "btb": { "id": "8476419", "name": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "score": 44.54317604703209, "components": { "Goal model": 57.840616966580974, "SOG model": 39.33161953727507, "Unit attack": 44.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 28.27763496143959, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.50630850630851, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4070685232060374, "unitPlayers": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 222 } }, { "id": "8476422", "name": "Mike Reilly", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 12.439583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.875, "ppShare": 0.008856682769726247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 42, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.432, "currentIXG": 0.054, "priorTOI": 14.96547619047619, "priorPPTOI": 0.12222222222222223, "deploymentChange": -2.525892857142857, "ppTOIChange": -0.0763888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.8 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03346839744343122, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.04079328634777765, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038939095828536656, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039972439758821435, "goalProbability": 0.038190714439782565, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17817253190388696, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2188598637483934, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.684210526315789, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008856682769726247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.045660646943859504, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2484.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.802707930367505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.688311688311689, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.540476190476191, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.027660990337053153, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0029141851015473, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9540709618011473, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.684210526315789, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.8 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 83, "fitPct": 0.09713950338490918, "index": 100.09713950338491, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57831325301204, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.481927710843374, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.44578313253012, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.63855421686747, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.8915662650602414, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9638554216867471, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.09713950338490918, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0733298320262907, "attemptProjection": 0.9895363804683538, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 5700.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.875, "projectedAttempts": 2.375, "onNet": 0.4196602828038631, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.045660646943859504, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0314331062473223, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0314331062473223, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 42, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476422", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2188598637483934, "adjustedSOG": 1.2188598637483934, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0314331062473223, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0314331062473223, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0314331062473223, "afterRecentZones": 1.0314331062473223, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0314331062473223, "adjusted": 1.0314331062473223, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0029141851015473, "newChartFactor": 1.0029141851015473, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.171875, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.36666666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2188598637483934, "adjustedSOG": 1.2188598637483934, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2188598637483934, "adjustedSOG": 1.2188598637483934 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.03757566648355127, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03676917997721174, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.036878461056468206, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07770578263308486 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05794084681016538, "modelSOG": 1.2188598637483934, "historyGames": 68, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 42, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 103.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.009708737864077669, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03346839744343122, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476429", "name": "Scott Mayfield", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.8875, "currentTOI": 13.641666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.525, "ppShare": 0.032036613272311214, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Extra defenseman", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.11666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.065, "currentIXG": 0.0325, "priorTOI": 16.471041666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.020416666666666666, "deploymentChange": -2.8293750000000006, "ppTOIChange": 0.09625, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0483748101864542, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.028121920790207526, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028121920790207526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027730180329995316, "goalProbability": 0.027730180329995316, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5813339769565062, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8503562945368173, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.525, "Current_PP_Share": 0.032036613272311214, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.15996463490742668, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 437.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.4511375017885246, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 36.734693877551024, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.560416666666665, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00445438742749703, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8503562945368173, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Scott Mayfield" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": 14.290549102195683, "index": 114.29054910219568, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.422018348623855, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1009174311926608, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4678899082568808, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.834862385321101, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.80733944954129, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3669724770642202, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.290549102195683, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5750000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.21899311889968107, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1263.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.525, "projectedAttempts": 0.5, "onNet": 0.41091293163659903, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 14.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.15996463490742668, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3969965594498406, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3969965594498406, "baseline": 0.8875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476429", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5931979356699043, "adjustedSOG": 0.5931979356699043, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5931979356699043, "adjustedSOG": 0.5813339769565062, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 380, "beforeSOG": 0.5813339769565062, "adjustedSOG": 0.5813339769565062 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.02537119991079158, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02537119991079158, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.025052055738648712, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787582671579285, "modelSOG": 0.5813339769565062, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 80, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 123.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04065040650406504, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0483748101864542, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 34.37426162263022, "btb": { "id": "8476429", "name": "Scott Mayfield", "score": 34.37426162263022, "components": { "Goal model": 2.570694087403599, "SOG model": 2.570694087403599, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 45.501285347043705, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.20973044049967, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 318 } }, { "id": "8476441", "name": "Joel Edmundson", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.2682926829268293, "currentTOI": 16.773333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.391666666666666, "ppShare": 0.002, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.762, "currentIXG": 0.0762, "priorTOI": 18.478455284552847, "priorPPTOI": 0.054878048780487805, "deploymentChange": -1.705121951219514, "ppTOIChange": -0.046544715447154474, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.047863507017283355, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.06209498056610489, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06289049224482213, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06020637957821854, "goalProbability": 0.060953699088737774, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07473195105192343, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2973345338794877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.419803126809496, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.391666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.008540909090909089, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.708182514729583, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.385772357723578, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01287602769776625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1258902313541972, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.688200747463962, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Edmundson", "Drew Doughty" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": 4.196341045139903, "index": 104.1963410451399, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.36075949367088, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 114 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.0253164556962027, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.775316455696203, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.800632911392405, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.034810126582279, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.003164556962025, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.196341045139903, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.595, "attemptProjection": 1.126645585619629, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8635.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.391666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.8999999999999995, "onNet": 0.4776312972966167, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 5.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.008540909090909089, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2608227928098144, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3608227928098144, "baseline": 1.2682926829268293, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476441", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3238107488566202, "adjustedSOG": 1.3238107488566202, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3238107488566202, "adjustedSOG": 1.2973345338794877, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 226, "beforeSOG": 1.2973345338794877, "adjustedSOG": 1.2973345338794877 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 207.0, "goalExpected": 0.053843436113039614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053843436113039614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05241954823252403, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05789823668340556, "modelSOG": 1.2973345338794877, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 209.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0430622009569378, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.047863507017283355, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.273146705406486, "btb": { "id": "8476441", "name": "Joel Edmundson", "score": 29.273146705406486, "components": { "Goal model": 16.452442159383033, "SOG model": 42.159383033419026, "Unit attack": 21.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 19.28020565552699, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 63.835470085470085, "Goalie H2H": 48.6549598356062 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0906980512774833, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Edmundson", "Drew Doughty" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 362 } }, { "id": "8476448", "name": "William Karlsson", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "priorSOG": 2.142857142857143, "currentTOI": 17.173076923076923, "currentFiveTOI": 14.028205128205128, "ppShare": 0.2527047913446677, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 14, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2576923076923079, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.69 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.273, "currentIXG": 0.2517692307692308, "priorTOI": 15.146428571428572, "priorPPTOI": 0.944047619047619, "deploymentChange": 2.026648351648351, "ppTOIChange": 0.31364468864468886, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.5 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.102827888045187, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.18425403413485594, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18515019894694665, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16827550942398325, "goalProbability": 0.16902053776183962, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07450283378563627, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7918683115798975, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.922134893072564, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.339449541284404, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.028205128205128, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2527047913446677, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.272190435144454, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.008610960945701, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 981.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.531648069517132, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.079445145018916, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.05595238095238, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20674047847960886, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.003243076289509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8347365808276597, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.885283903472274, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8862756870314527, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.28958287835772, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.67590618336887, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Howden", "William Karlsson", "Mitch Marner" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -5.508780639078012, "index": 94.49121936092199, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.451612903225806, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.580645161290324, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.193548387096776, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.032258064516128, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.161290322580644, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.580645161290323, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": -3.823869884257533, "index": 96.17613011574247, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 36.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.508780639078012, "zonePPFit": -3.823869884257533, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4686911209151012, "attemptProjection": 1.7446794418044562, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 10942.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.028205128205128, "projectedAttempts": 2.923076923076923, "onNet": 0.49446616918992614, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 981.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.272190435144454, "projectedAttempts": 0.38904906273530704, "onNet": 0.5095310648383274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2891177641656606, "ppAdjusted": 0.16372136334796436, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6066852813597787, "baseline": 2.142857142857143, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 14, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476448", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8211540259587244, "adjustedSOG": 1.7918683115798975, "reductionPct": 1.6080855304597241, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2891177641656606, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2707725827466296, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2703252465003705, "afterRecentZones": 1.2891177641656606, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2703252465003703, "adjusted": 1.252247497705009, "playerFactor": 0.9857691966327806, "defenseFactor": 0.9731786902394182, "oldChartFactor": 0.8347365808276597, "newChartFactor": 0.8285069873359246, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9110040860242601, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8733075627278325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.16372136334796436, "afterPlayerForm": 0.15274539274215174, "afterRecentDefense": 0.16372136334796436, "afterRecentZones": 0.16268885662913618, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.16268885662913618, "adjusted": 0.1517821058439042, "playerFactor": 0.9329594477998274, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.885283903472274, "newChartFactor": 0.8720291318411889, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.316666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7918683115798975, "adjustedSOG": 1.7918683115798975, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 108, "beforeSOG": 1.7918683115798975, "adjustedSOG": 1.7918683115798975 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.17495933368318797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17682629133443467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1605088409115008, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15658323164892685 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866357660245678, "modelSOG": 1.7918683115798975, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 14, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 171.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08771929824561403, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.102827888045187, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.324501342792516, "btb": { "id": "8476448", "name": "William Karlsson", "score": 54.324501342792516, "components": { "Goal model": 61.696658097686374, "SOG model": 72.49357326478149, "Unit attack": 67.85714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 20.689655172413794, "Shot quality": 77.6349614395887, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 49.443149443149444, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8452987156591543, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Howden", "William Karlsson", "Mitch Marner" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 128 } }, { "id": "8476460", "name": "Mark Scheifele", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.1341463414634148, "currentTOI": 21.21060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 16.6030303030303, "ppShare": 0.7493197278911564, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.337878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.313, "currentIXG": 0.39209090909090905, "priorTOI": 21.504065040650406, "priorPPTOI": 3.069918699186992, "deploymentChange": -0.29345898004434545, "ppTOIChange": 0.2679600886917961, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 25.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.18676814068437772, "goalHistoryGoals": 77.0, "goalHistoryShots": 381.0, "goalExpected": 0.40088841292633814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4092243426430012, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3302752105020892, "goalProbability": 0.33583478497235386, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5559574470264672, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.146449664580671, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.584960759262639, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.170676350431231, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.6030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7493197278911564, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.048029529993816, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9886036540375441, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2203.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.540438278417152, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.295550847457626, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.759959349593494, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6726820882360799, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8925409245341296, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8235277430645089, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.74212179552133, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.8236856080722252, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 25.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 181, "fitPct": -5.882408564516368, "index": 94.11759143548363, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.209944751381214, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.92265193370166, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.3646408839779, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.5939226519337, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.698895027624308, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.209944751381215, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -9.763345301706892, "index": 90.23665469829311, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.807486631016043, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.16042780748663, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.60606060606061, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.504456327985736, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.1372549019607843, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.882408564516368, "zonePPFit": -9.763345301706892, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.054928107606679, "attemptProjection": 2.254375652377671, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 10958.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.6030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.545454545454545, "onNet": 0.5450387549835064, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2203.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.048029529993816, "projectedAttempts": 1.653756957328386, "onNet": 0.4772955164016617, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2821882019967932, "ppAdjusted": 0.599736405268109, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.154651879992175, "baseline": 2.1341463414634148, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476460", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.146449664580671, "adjustedSOG": 2.146449664580671, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.146449664580671, "adjustedSOG": 2.146449664580671, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 68, "beforeSOG": 2.146449664580671, "adjustedSOG": 2.146449664580671 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 77.0, "goalHistoryShots": 374.0, "goalExpected": 0.36299742216743397, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36299742216743397, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.304411773393233, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12835475669185678, "modelSOG": 2.146449664580671, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 77.0, "historyShots": 381.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2020997375328084, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.18676814068437772, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.46739901116158, "btb": { "id": "8476460", "name": "Mark Scheifele", "score": 68.46739901116158, "components": { "Goal model": 96.40102827763496, "SOG model": 82.77634961439588, "Unit attack": 85.71428571428571, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 48.275862068965516, "Shot quality": 93.31619537275064, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 57.77370777370778, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.320862519160167, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 22 } }, { "id": "8476461", "name": "Sean Couturier", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.1538461538461537, "priorSOG": 1.5256410256410255, "currentTOI": 16.962820512820514, "currentFiveTOI": 13.03076923076923, "ppShare": 0.04167732037841984, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.20897435897435898, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.15 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.658, "currentIXG": 0.12753846153846154, "priorTOI": 16.651495726495725, "priorPPTOI": 0.8188034188034188, "deploymentChange": 0.3113247863247892, "ppTOIChange": -0.6098290598290598, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10249142625765227, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.1308959664057205, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12944349592514498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.122690960743697, "goalProbability": 0.12141576939712728, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12751913465697123, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.277140646639674, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.6044864226682405, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.03076923076923, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04167732037841984, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.20331645494008058, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 0.9877898672235583, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 163.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.038861810038203, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.21294363256785, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.976068376068376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1922954529209541, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9554449544018597, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9937672469256811, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9494899019249691, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5743329097839895, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Bump", "Sean Couturier", "Tyson Foerster" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": -0.20775843581063214, "index": 99.79224156418937, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.989548338932437, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.399029488615156, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.57334826427772, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.268010451661066, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.635311683463975, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1347517730496455, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.20775843581063214, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.103336055771123, "attemptProjection": 1.1504800304918419, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 10164.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.03076923076923, "projectedAttempts": 1.923076923076923, "onNet": 0.5135069718495133, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 163.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.20331645494008058, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9730618892853286, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1269080431314824, "baseline": 1.5256410256410255, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476461", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2864012361352999, "adjustedSOG": 1.277140646639674, "reductionPct": 0.7198834419226197, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9730618892853286, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9730618892853286, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9587763903002515, "afterRecentZones": 0.9718959553960275, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9576275734592858, "adjusted": 0.9576275734592858, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9853190232374951, "oldChartFactor": 0.9937672469256811, "newChartFactor": 0.9913266376913563, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.21666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0233073244399697, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9305477920626049, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.43333333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.277140646639674, "adjustedSOG": 1.277140646639674, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 231, "beforeSOG": 1.277140646639674, "adjustedSOG": 1.277140646639674 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.12332088816641186, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12104019621332128, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11602004166338435, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2018386761998947 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869164814226738, "modelSOG": 1.277140646639674, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 78, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 289.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09342560553633218, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10249142625765227, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.31981251745087, "btb": { "id": "8476461", "name": "Sean Couturier", "score": 36.31981251745087, "components": { "Goal model": 44.473007712082264, "SOG model": 40.87403598971722, "Unit attack": 8.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 35.98971722365039, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 57.638888888888886, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9288345001471112, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Bump", "Sean Couturier", "Tyson Foerster" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 301 } }, { "id": "8476462", "name": "Dougie Hamilton", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.6363636363636362, "currentTOI": 21.02121212121212, "currentFiveTOI": 16.86969696969697, "ppShare": 0.31568998109640833, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.518181818181818, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.449, "currentIXG": 0.13172727272727272, "priorTOI": 21.54004329004329, "priorPPTOI": 1.9870129870129871, "deploymentChange": -0.51883116883117, "ppTOIChange": -0.46883116883116904, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 5.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05374781115550089, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 417.0, "goalExpected": 0.1243132506916276, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12339982298254841, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11689683512663744, "goalProbability": 0.11608981570502724, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08070194216101972, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.312898851489408, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.083348302496857, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.592814371257485, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.86969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31568998109640833, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.744426304634244, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1002.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.809326254996658, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.764705882352942, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.165151515151514, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5123153460347285, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7783354132235638, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.151193633952255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.013377926421405, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 5.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 16.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 231, "fitPct": -7.388819559214539, "index": 92.61118044078546, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.55054749172396, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 118 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.842627960275019, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.261013496307614, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2510822510822512, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.016806722689076, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.077922077922078, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -11.737744360764097, "index": 88.2622556392359, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.388819559214539, "zonePPFit": -11.737744360764097, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.202424528842298, "attemptProjection": 2.149426852228663, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 53.0, "sog": 25.0, "seconds": 11134.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.86969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 4.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.4364714515870539, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1002.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.744426304634244, "projectedAttempts": 0.5222833247407916, "onNet": 0.402020202020202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8627311547949001, "ppAdjusted": 0.13137635392239855, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1759256905354807, "baseline": 2.6363636363636362, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476462", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.360100868866743, "adjustedSOG": 2.360100868866743, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.360100868866743, "adjustedSOG": 2.312898851489408, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 49, "beforeSOG": 2.312898851489408, "adjustedSOG": 2.312898851489408 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 415.0, "goalExpected": 0.15133696187727907, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1546411397789881, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14044198842601577, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.28354455990488303 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787618367393959, "modelSOG": 2.312898851489408, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 417.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05275779376498801, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05374781115550089, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.777680899716565, "btb": { "id": "8476462", "name": "Dougie Hamilton", "score": 49.777680899716565, "components": { "Goal model": 41.645244215938305, "SOG model": 87.66066838046272, "Unit attack": 98.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 17.24137931034483, "Shot quality": 40.616966580976865, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 56.389906389906386, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.70066725187376, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 177 } }, { "id": "8476463", "name": "Jonas Brodin", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2258064516129032, "currentTOI": 21.555128205128202, "currentFiveTOI": 17.712820512820514, "ppShare": 0.03626179245283019, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1576923076923077, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.434, "currentIXG": 0.03338461538461539, "priorTOI": 20.29005376344086, "priorPPTOI": 0.07634408602150537, "deploymentChange": 1.265074441687343, "ppTOIChange": 0.08134822167080231, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.053021600479227604, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.05278205352239688, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05495445554100472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05141326890857401, "goalProbability": 0.05347174391084462, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20584750022706044, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9954820874008778, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.126809496236248, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.712820512820514, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03626179245283019, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1527547377691098, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.985018272248927, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.72768817204301, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014469467361061916, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7871849569247042, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.352735739231665, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 102, "fitPct": -7.0938347691765244, "index": 92.90616523082348, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.95588235294117, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352944, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.9607843137254901, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.02450980392157, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.602941176470587, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.279411764705881, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.0938347691765244, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8615384615384616, "attemptProjection": 0.8900464308718095, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 13816.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.712820512820514, "projectedAttempts": 2.076923076923077, "onNet": 0.4150202534216435, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 123.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1527547377691098, "projectedAttempts": 0.07451450622883406, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7815189178825575, "ppAdjusted": 0.017350451399501164, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8757924462051355, "baseline": 1.2258064516129032, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476463", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0157980483682425, "adjustedSOG": 1.0157980483682427, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7815189178825575, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7815189178825575, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7815189178825573, "afterRecentZones": 0.7815189178825575, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7815189178825575, "adjusted": 0.7815189178825575, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7871849569247042, "newChartFactor": 0.7871849569247042, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0664533423154112, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.017350451399501164, "afterPlayerForm": 0.017350451399501164, "afterRecentDefense": 0.017350451399501164, "afterRecentZones": 0.017350451399501164, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.017350451399501164, "adjusted": 0.017350451399501164, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.2777777777777772, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0157980483682427, "adjustedSOG": 0.9954820874008778, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 304, "beforeSOG": 0.9954820874008778, "adjustedSOG": 0.9954820874008778 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.06282400277509805, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06282400277509805, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06089126032240659, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785616124599176, "modelSOG": 0.9954820874008778, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 62, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.053021600479227604, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.62811108565137, "btb": { "id": "8476463", "name": "Jonas Brodin", "score": 29.62811108565137, "components": { "Goal model": 14.138817480719794, "SOG model": 22.10796915167095, "Unit attack": 32.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.5424164524421593, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 44.17989417989418, "Goalie H2H": 46.3996399639964 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.238903392105501, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 359 } }, { "id": "8476467", "name": "Jamie Oleksiak", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 0.9871794871794872, "currentTOI": 18.004545454545454, "currentFiveTOI": 15.653030303030304, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.248, "currentIXG": 0.022545454545454546, "priorTOI": 16.926923076923078, "priorPPTOI": 0.014957264957264958, "deploymentChange": 1.077622377622376, "ppTOIChange": -0.014957264957264958, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020892", "date": "20260203", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020809", "date": "20260123", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020573", "date": "20251222", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020021", "date": "20251009", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020806", "date": "20250128", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06311884588962675, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.044320860451151994, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04389291581973745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04335304195085914, "goalProbability": 0.042943562409966586, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04094795408925572, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7021810970475284, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0907946955764203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.653030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3357.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8225758498152422, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.092521367521368, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003593003583238625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0571868219340796, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9788766869759996, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0907946955764203, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020892", "date": "20260203", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020809", "date": "20260123", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020573", "date": "20251222", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020021", "date": "20251009", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020806", "date": "20250128", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020360", "date": "20241127", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020343", "date": "20241125", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jamie Oleksiak", "Victor Mancini" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 115, "fitPct": 1.9062273978026525, "index": 101.90622739780265, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 35.701863354037265, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 78 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.0434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.782608695652174, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.77018633540373, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.130434782608696, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9062273978026525, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6248418292596362, "attemptProjection": 0.4682229612259521, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 10331.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.653030303030304, "projectedAttempts": 0.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.4399416866689246, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4556233043337032, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5465323952427941, "baseline": 0.9871794871794872, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476467", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020892", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020809", "date": "20260123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020573", "date": "20251222", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020021", "date": "20251009", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7227912320174714, "adjustedSOG": 0.7165113235178862, "reductionPct": 0.8688412672157919, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4556233043337032, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4556233043337032, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4556233043337032, "afterRecentZones": 0.4451567901677278, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4451567901677278, "adjusted": 0.4451567901677278, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0571868219340796, "newChartFactor": 1.015739425836817, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.76666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2625262746248227, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7165113235178862, "adjustedSOG": 0.7021810970475284, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 361, "beforeSOG": 0.7021810970475284, "adjustedSOG": 0.7021810970475284 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.044169725576483146, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045143280287720786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04320844830645612, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09310356422187402 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057797114724066866, "modelSOG": 0.7021810970475284, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06311884588962675, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 23.43461420309027, "btb": { "id": "8476467", "name": "Jamie Oleksiak", "score": 23.43461420309027, "components": { "Goal model": 8.740359897172237, "SOG model": 7.455012853470437, "Unit attack": 10.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 2.056555269922879, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 35.042735042735046, "Goalie H2H": 47.57975797579758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8284263831155327, "unitPlayers": [ "Jamie Oleksiak", "Victor Mancini" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 391 } }, { "id": "8476469", "name": "Joel Armia", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.373134328358209, "currentTOI": 14.006666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.898333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0392, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.16333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.602, "currentIXG": 0.1602, "priorTOI": 14.061940298507462, "priorPPTOI": 0.6435323383084577, "deploymentChange": -0.055273631840796256, "ppTOIChange": -0.48019900497512435, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.866666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12253026713264226, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.1717048100050572, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1739045559491844, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15777224631619505, "goalProbability": 0.1596228971742761, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.185065085808106, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4013256807738956, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.538450763412243, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.898333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0392, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.16740181818181815, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 98.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.280836770270845, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.307305759567067, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.700995024875622, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1509918883160832, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9882576812401374, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2232376327839338, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.021325527911353, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.866666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Scott Laughton", "Erik Haula", "Joel Armia" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": 7.441254426131124, "index": 107.44125442613112, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 27.59259259259259, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.416666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.648148148148145, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.4444444444444455, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.814814814814813, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.083333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.441254426131124, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.435, "attemptProjection": 1.5005681090390395, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7139.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.898333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4864214992927864, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 98.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.16740181818181815, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0677840545195196, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4677840545195198, "baseline": 1.373134328358209, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476469", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4299241640549956, "adjustedSOG": 1.4299241640549956, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4299241640549956, "adjustedSOG": 1.4013256807738956, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 191, "beforeSOG": 1.4013256807738956, "adjustedSOG": 1.4013256807738956 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 207.0, "goalExpected": 0.1591196242759565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1591196242759565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.147105673999772, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286185254398646, "modelSOG": 1.4013256807738956, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 209.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11961722488038277, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12253026713264226, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.4617735817417, "btb": { "id": "8476469", "name": "Joel Armia", "score": 41.4617735817417, "components": { "Goal model": 57.326478149100254, "SOG model": 51.15681233933162, "Unit attack": 40.476190476190474, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50.89974293059126, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 52.99145299145299, "Goalie H2H": 50.339739856338575 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3175727791757135, "unitPlayers": [ "Scott Laughton", "Erik Haula", "Joel Armia" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 253 } }, { "id": "8476474", "name": "Stefan Noesen", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.368421052631579, "currentTOI": 9.5, "currentFiveTOI": 9.083333333333332, "ppShare": 0.04775124930594114, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2866666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.617, "currentIXG": 0.1234, "priorTOI": 11.75438596491228, "priorPPTOI": 1.5157894736842106, "deploymentChange": -2.254385964912281, "ppTOIChange": -1.229122807017544, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12031751828503225, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.13688332714134466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13587753714529657, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1279280326738428, "goalProbability": 0.1270504701654558, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08775625083870253, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.137684096983018, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.926605504587156, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.083333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04775124930594114, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2638618276041929, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 86.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1801.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.0700181923059855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.583333333333334, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.884649122807017, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3908188893590003, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.926605504587156, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.15 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": -9.654468792408395, "index": 90.3455312075916, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.499999999999998, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.166666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.654468792408395, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.02, "attemptProjection": 1.0251123957531938, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2725.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.083333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.5007984669434685, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 86.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2638618276041929, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.022556197876597, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.022556197876597, "baseline": 1.368421052631579, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 38, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476474", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1609021397785897, "adjustedSOG": 1.1609021397785897, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1609021397785897, "adjustedSOG": 1.137684096983018, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.137684096983018, "adjustedSOG": 1.137684096983018 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.12907741730346536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13189559697730893, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12109407961467522, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2473427880936338 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862558406065414, "modelSOG": 1.137684096983018, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 38, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11659192825112108, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12031751828503225, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476479", "name": "Phillip Danault", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.2133333333333334, "currentTOI": 16.36212121212121, "currentFiveTOI": 11.845454545454546, "ppShare": 0.01775147928994083, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06818181818181818, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.147, "currentIXG": 0.19518181818181815, "priorTOI": 15.566222222222223, "priorPPTOI": 0.5922222222222222, "deploymentChange": 0.795898989898987, "ppTOIChange": -0.5240404040404041, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020104", "date": "20251021", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021010", "date": "20250308", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020987", "date": "20250305", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020957", "date": "20250301", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08094626236848895, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 232.0, "goalExpected": 0.12262507894596504, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12853783580215317, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11540474621838621, "goalProbability": 0.12061971026968918, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5214964051302964, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.514894886532784, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.446661550268611, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.845454545454546, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01775147928994083, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07614308768154922, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0129869856635516, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 45.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.961873053377725, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.414666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1246516934046346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0762282262848515, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0342829358878014, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1131244895672172, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.705831781057458, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020104", "date": "20251021", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021010", "date": "20250308", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020987", "date": "20250305", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020957", "date": "20250301", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": 1.1427645295933786, "index": 101.14276452959338, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.401148482362592, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.65135356849877, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.13453650533224, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.514356029532404, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.368334700574241, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 14.930270713699754, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.1427645295933786, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7803402594491855, "attemptProjection": 1.754585658462779, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7818.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.845454545454546, "projectedAttempts": 2.6363636363636362, "onNet": 0.500164846692576, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 45.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07614308768154922, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4038265953196185, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7674629589559823, "baseline": 1.2133333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476479", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5458111087069226, "adjustedSOG": 1.5458111087069226, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4038265953196185, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4038265953196185, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4038265953196185, "afterRecentZones": 1.4038265953196185, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4038265953196185, "adjusted": 1.4038265953196185, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0342829358878014, "newChartFactor": 1.0342829358878014, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3301950998185117, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1264171989753764, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.6166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5458111087069226, "adjustedSOG": 1.514894886532784, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 161, "beforeSOG": 1.514894886532784, "adjustedSOG": 1.514894886532784 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.12470385932676767, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12470385932676767, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11724171548754796, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12874159106338331, "modelSOG": 1.514894886532784, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 75, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 232.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0603448275862069, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08094626236848895, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.417838390167326, "btb": { "id": "8476479", "name": "Phillip Danault", "score": 50.417838390167326, "components": { "Goal model": 40.87403598971722, "SOG model": 58.868894601542415, "Unit attack": 83.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 64.26735218508998, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 45.86894586894587, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2657308895622252, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 169 } }, { "id": "8476480", "name": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.2666666666666666, "currentTOI": 12.091666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 9.411111111111111, "ppShare": 0.26354029062087186, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.691, "currentIXG": 0.11516666666666665, "priorTOI": 13.776666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.4361111111111111, "deploymentChange": -1.6850000000000005, "ppTOIChange": -0.3277777777777777, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11503073281419071, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.12570082470666213, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1283146025218714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11812135637740576, "goalProbability": 0.12042338141024521, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23020250328394526, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0927586187745741, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.375442739079102, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.411111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26354029062087186, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4237165245586647, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.010227875253061, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 399.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1514.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.7751222028444404, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.444874274661508, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.30861111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3146813697108975, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9683312445772679, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8356609642849832, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.375442739079102, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": -5.477967857167229, "index": 94.52203214283277, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.761904761904763, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.64285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.214285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.30952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.19047619047619, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.880952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.477967857167229, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0166666666666666, "attemptProjection": 0.9369731736930244, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 3388.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.411111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5126730564430245, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 399.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4237165245586647, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8101532535131788, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9768199201798455, "baseline": 1.2666666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476480", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0927586187745741, "adjustedSOG": 1.0927586187745741, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0927586187745741, "adjustedSOG": 1.0927586187745741, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0927586187745741, "adjustedSOG": 1.0927586187745741 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.12551278687639617, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12551278687639617, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11795551423889178, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863512989530826, "modelSOG": 1.0927586187745741, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 60, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 177.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10734463276836158, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11503073281419071, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476539", "name": "Jonathan Marchessault", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 2.129032258064516, "currentTOI": 16.613636363636363, "currentFiveTOI": 12.968181818181819, "ppShare": 0.6148013345465575, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.071212121212121, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.452, "currentIXG": 0.22290909090909092, "priorTOI": 16.70725806451613, "priorPPTOI": 2.6620967741935484, "deploymentChange": -0.09362170087976551, "ppTOIChange": 0.40911534701857244, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10429205860872975, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 359.0, "goalExpected": 0.20024951610600986, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20024951610600986, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18147350794712913, "goalProbability": 0.18147350794712913, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9200840291903873, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.309148264984227, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.656142081894425, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.968181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6148013345465575, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2323645922372037, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.02969383070874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2027.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.840363400389357, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.177521963041503, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.255913978494624, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6592665214847011, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.924958205252656, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.970686773467546, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9067540599661211, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8978446958490328, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.3749051353402475, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.60695344725987, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Wood", "Jonathan Marchessault", "Ross Colton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 125, "fitPct": -0.9771075510818008, "index": 99.0228924489182, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.68, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.479999999999997, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.32, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.760000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.16, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": -3.1081980011292956, "index": 96.8918019988707, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3559322033898307, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 36.15819209039548, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.68361581920904, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.344632768361582, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.779661016949152, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6779661016949153, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9771075510818008, "zonePPFit": -3.1081980011292956, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7122979411921007, "attemptProjection": 1.8492724786898358, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8559.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.968181818181819, "projectedAttempts": 2.6363636363636362, "onNet": 0.5069557588670259, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2027.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2323645922372037, "projectedAttempts": 1.1481512118454793, "onNet": 0.5073934209927659, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2612980872868653, "ppAdjusted": 0.519487122654103, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7807852099409682, "baseline": 2.129032258064516, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476539", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9200840291903873, "adjustedSOG": 1.9200840291903873, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9200840291903873, "adjustedSOG": 1.9200840291903873, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 94, "beforeSOG": 1.9200840291903873, "adjustedSOG": 1.9200840291903873 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 357.0, "goalExpected": 0.20997153712599723, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20997153712599723, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18939268214420668, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12870054901406958, "modelSOG": 1.9200840291903873, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 62, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 359.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09749303621169916, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10429205860872975, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.07773124413766, "btb": { "id": "8476539", "name": "Jonathan Marchessault", "score": 54.07773124413766, "components": { "Goal model": 65.03856041131105, "SOG model": 76.09254498714652, "Unit attack": 28.571428571428573, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.827586206896555, "Shot quality": 70.95115681233933, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.202498356344506, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1933714725408686, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Wood", "Jonathan Marchessault", "Ross Colton" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 132 } }, { "id": "8476624", "name": "Barclay Goodrow", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.8048780487804879, "currentTOI": 11.744444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 8.75, "ppShare": 0.004082674151569278, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.948, "currentIXG": 0.079, "priorTOI": 11.347560975609756, "priorPPTOI": 0.04715447154471545, "deploymentChange": 0.39688346883468917, "ppTOIChange": -0.024932249322493227, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.6 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09110954465867215, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.07596228616723151, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07596228616723151, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07314883899006745, "goalProbability": 0.07314883899006745, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8337467435691014, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.857142857142857, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.75, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004082674151569278, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.020278570342362124, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0181477848907963, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.28193832599119, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.227642276422763, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00938351898140284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0522143109629853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9917437456130804, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0435269619421177, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.666989351403679, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.6 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Barclay Goodrow", "Zack Ostapchuk", "Adam Gaudette" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": -0.275208479563986, "index": 99.72479152043601, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.250000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.275208479563986, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0435269619421177, "attemptProjection": 0.7375672086405893, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6300.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.75, "projectedAttempts": 1.4166666666666667, "onNet": 0.5486624386056935, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 16.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.020278570342362124, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8905470852913535, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8905470852913535, "baseline": 0.8048780487804879, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476624", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8562794706870073, "adjustedSOG": 0.8337467435691014, "reductionPct": 2.6314688006974563, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8905470852913535, "afterPlayerForm": 0.876364771594461, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8667966182331333, "afterRecentZones": 0.8905470852913535, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8667966182331333, "adjusted": 0.8529925400948437, "playerFactor": 0.9840746054519368, "defenseFactor": 0.9733304757822546, "oldChartFactor": 0.9917437456130804, "newChartFactor": 0.9917437456130804, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 42.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8719723183391002, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755351070214042, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8337467435691014, "adjustedSOG": 0.8337467435691014, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 336, "beforeSOG": 0.8337467435691014, "adjustedSOG": 0.8337467435691014 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.11334823332768446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10668480296667408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10716031056216069, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5969240817539634 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12868495709326708, "modelSOG": 0.8337467435691014, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06622516556291391, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09110954465867215, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.285425514217287, "btb": { "id": "8476624", "name": "Barclay Goodrow", "score": 31.285425514217287, "components": { "Goal model": 25.44987146529563, "SOG model": 13.881748071979434, "Unit attack": 5.9523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 17.223650385604113, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.558404558404554, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9118396407574627, "unitPlayers": [ "Barclay Goodrow", "Zack Ostapchuk", "Adam Gaudette" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 350 } }, { "id": "8476854", "name": "Hampus Lindholm", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.492537313432836, "currentTOI": 20.675, "currentFiveTOI": 16.790277777777778, "ppShare": 0.22163506372396644, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9902777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.747, "currentIXG": 0.06225, "priorTOI": 21.62313432835821, "priorPPTOI": 1.404726368159204, "deploymentChange": -0.9481343283582078, "ppTOIChange": -0.41444859038142623, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05936493564190586, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.07004946796677503, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07004946796677503, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06765230257975392, "goalProbability": 0.06765230257975392, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1799805256981855, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.871287947721069, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.049088359046284, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.790277777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22163506372396644, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0367240574246326, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8912491930762187, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.47511953249513, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.56990049751244, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.32036293787399567, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.864816472694718, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.633802816901408, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Hampus Lindholm", "Charlie McAvoy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": -13.281883939939902, "index": 86.7181160600601, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.64150943396227, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.886792452830188, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.6415094339622645, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.81132075471698, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.132075471698113, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.886792452830188, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": -8.942130017710639, "index": 91.05786998228936, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 94.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -13.281883939939902, "zonePPFit": -8.942130017710639, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9949889110733842, "attemptProjection": 1.0709901631665468, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 12089.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.790277777777778, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.4019092623593482, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 713.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0367240574246326, "projectedAttempts": 0.43620928082382854, "onNet": 0.402020202020202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9186668953209569, "ppAdjusted": 0.11432264179900856, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0329895371199656, "baseline": 1.492537313432836, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476854", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2168086476451137, "adjustedSOG": 1.2040617609165158, "reductionPct": 1.0475670725439756, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9186668953209569, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9083246856338316, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9139727147383562, "afterRecentZones": 0.9186668953209569, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9139727147383561, "adjusted": 0.9036833514095155, "playerFactor": 0.9887421548117155, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.38333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9367072763684912, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.11432264179900856, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10806137449612008, "afterRecentDefense": 0.11432264179900856, "afterRecentZones": 0.11432264179900856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.11432264179900856, "adjusted": 0.10806137449612008, "playerFactor": 0.9452316076294278, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2040617609165158, "adjustedSOG": 1.1799805256981855, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 254, "beforeSOG": 1.1799805256981855, "adjustedSOG": 1.1799805256981855 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.05957391746984917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0573011774720769, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057834111501388744, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21437332507187323 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057818689748345586, "modelSOG": 1.1799805256981855, "historyGames": 96, "seasonGames": { "2024": 17, "2025": 67, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06040268456375839, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05936493564190586, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.75477208631129, "btb": { "id": "8476854", "name": "Hampus Lindholm", "score": 40.75477208631129, "components": { "Goal model": 21.59383033419023, "SOG model": 34.96143958868895, "Unit attack": 89.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 12.853470437017995, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.308913308913304, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3816921770038535, "unitPlayers": [ "Hampus Lindholm", "Charlie McAvoy" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 261 } }, { "id": "8476869", "name": "Brady Skjei", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.353658536585366, "currentTOI": 19.596969696969698, "currentFiveTOI": 14.93939393939394, "ppShare": 0.14589020321504398, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7287878787878789, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.658, "currentIXG": 0.05981818181818182, "priorTOI": 22.609552845528455, "priorPPTOI": 1.071341463414634, "deploymentChange": -3.0125831485587575, "ppTOIChange": -0.3425535846267552, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04944757391871962, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 280.0, "goalExpected": 0.059584454679437265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.059584454679437265, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05784403924851714, "goalProbability": 0.05784403924851714, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2050025907718007, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6511156186612577, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.93939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.14589020321504398, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7670287956912161, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 481.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.622392974753019, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.512805919180421, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.77560975609756, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2653170112952262, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9431566653489735, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.811021226218351, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8914719652448158, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5278745644599305, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": -1.8947778217008846, "index": 98.10522217829912, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.6923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 85 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.384615384615384, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.23076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.9230769230769225, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": -6.2992924593882975, "index": 93.7007075406117, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.8095238095238098, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.8095238095238098, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8947778217008846, "zonePPFit": -6.2992924593882975, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0831563320407416, "attemptProjection": 1.128640921751439, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 9860.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.93939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 1.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.42192337342910635, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 481.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7670287956912161, "projectedAttempts": 0.1913585353075799, "onNet": 0.405982905982906, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7964311863881173, "ppAdjusted": 0.036740167780700266, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1058986268960904, "baseline": 1.353658536585366, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476869", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2050025907718007, "adjustedSOG": 1.2050025907718007, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2050025907718007, "adjustedSOG": 1.2050025907718007, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 245, "beforeSOG": 1.2050025907718007, "adjustedSOG": 1.2050025907718007 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 278.0, "goalExpected": 0.05976522045058819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05976522045058819, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05801433340516583, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05790078089113459, "modelSOG": 1.2050025907718007, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 280.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04642857142857143, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04944757391871962, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.28348091675534, "btb": { "id": "8476869", "name": "Brady Skjei", "score": 36.28348091675534, "components": { "Goal model": 15.938303341902314, "SOG model": 37.275064267352185, "Unit attack": 20.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.138817480719794, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.912901912901916, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0873973405788897, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 302 } }, { "id": "8476872", "name": "Scott Laughton", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.484375, "currentTOI": 14.858333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.819999999999999, "ppShare": 0.0056, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.023333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.701, "currentIXG": 0.1701, "priorTOI": 14.354166666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.34869791666666666, "deploymentChange": 0.5041666666666682, "ppTOIChange": -0.32536458333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020520", "date": "20251216", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020318", "date": "20241123", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 5.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12197658483227938, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 235.0, "goalExpected": 0.19133836180767422, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19378963725726692, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17414689627861663, "goalProbability": 0.17616881056987554, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20219142912589194, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5686482948409228, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.616224648985959, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.819999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0056, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02391454545454545, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9922586224939202, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.48254439867648, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.44286781179985, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.56953125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0818149357152395, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2379293041064228, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.867607783288821, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 8.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020520", "date": "20251216", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020318", "date": "20241123", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Scott Laughton", "Erik Haula", "Joel Armia" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": 7.9309768035474235, "index": 107.93097680354742, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.416666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.645833333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.520833333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.875, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.083333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.458333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.9309768035474235, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6799999999999997, "attemptProjection": 1.6763717511596015, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7692.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.819999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.5069327417393716, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 14.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02391454545454545, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3781858755798004, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6781858755798007, "baseline": 1.484375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476872", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020520", "date": "20251216", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6006615253478804, "adjustedSOG": 1.6006615253478804, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6006615253478804, "adjustedSOG": 1.5686482948409228, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 146, "beforeSOG": 1.5686482948409228, "adjustedSOG": 1.5686482948409228 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 235.0, "goalExpected": 0.18808659943928788, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18808659943928788, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17145704722935848, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862155918813592, "modelSOG": 1.5686482948409228, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 64, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 235.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11914893617021277, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12197658483227938, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.58106380691361, "btb": { "id": "8476872", "name": "Scott Laughton", "score": 43.58106380691361, "components": { "Goal model": 63.239074550128535, "SOG model": 62.724935732647815, "Unit attack": 40.476190476190474, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 54.75578406169666, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 53.44254510921178, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3175727791757135, "unitPlayers": [ "Scott Laughton", "Erik Haula", "Joel Armia" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 230 } }, { "id": "8476873", "name": "Mark Jankowski", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 0.9264705882352942, "currentTOI": 13.772222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 10.04814814814815, "ppShare": 0.1503287507471608, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9314814814814815, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.219, "currentIXG": 0.35766666666666663, "priorTOI": 11.151225490196078, "priorPPTOI": 0.25735294117647056, "deploymentChange": 2.6209967320261445, "ppTOIChange": 0.6741285403050109, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020973", "date": "20250304", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17152034163825242, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.22568499355882993, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2154268601046091, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20203057241149905, "goalProbability": 0.19380276671687688, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.822780569462217, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3157914181095458, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.625138223368964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.157057654075547, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.04814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1503287507471608, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7750201956922669, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 503.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3346.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.374493927125506, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.686274509803921, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05824339542895549, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0057458859796, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0186891821545665, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.625138223368964, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.157057654075547, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020973", "date": "20250304", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020101", "date": "20241022", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": 0.19152953265333394, "index": 100.19152953265333, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.448979591836735, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.83673469387756, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.26530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.448979591836734, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 2 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.19152953265333394, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.676016638020411, "attemptProjection": 1.5869768387559668, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 5426.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.04814814814815, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666674, "onNet": 0.5204462552528851, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 503.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7750201956922669, "projectedAttempts": 0.18489547412141552, "onNet": 0.5196963185790001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4246655278038056, "ppAdjusted": 0.09572009947327195, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6314967383881889, "baseline": 0.9264705882352942, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476873", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.349486278327031, "adjustedSOG": 1.3157914181095458, "reductionPct": 2.496865715393337, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4246655278038056, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4246655278038056, "afterRecentDefense": 1.372580700629586, "afterRecentZones": 1.4237118695297086, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3716619074697354, "adjusted": 1.3716619074697354, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 1.0057458859796, "newChartFactor": 1.0044422134797684, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3743667679837892, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.09572009947327195, "afterPlayerForm": 0.09572009947327195, "afterRecentDefense": 0.09256561944486716, "afterRecentZones": 0.09572009947327195, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.09256561944486717, "adjusted": 0.09256561944486717, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.366666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5621118012422361, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3157914181095458, "adjustedSOG": 1.3157914181095458, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.3157914181095458, "adjustedSOG": 1.3157914181095458 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.28873690531532764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2825397452963302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.250790707542193, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4657386251529949 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285096335973359, "modelSOG": 1.3157914181095458, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 68, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 144.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2013888888888889, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17152034163825242, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476874", "name": "Olli Maatta", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.7906976744186046, "currentTOI": 20.14814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 16.37962962962963, "ppShare": 0.0038876889848812094, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.211, "currentIXG": 0.023444444444444445, "priorTOI": 17.213565891472868, "priorPPTOI": 0.03953488372093023, "deploymentChange": 2.934582256675281, "ppTOIChange": -0.022868217054263566, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021281", "date": "20260412", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.051118453702692704, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 111.0, "goalExpected": 0.030881101302865942, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.032152104652114426, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030409150688470717, "goalProbability": 0.03164072107450863, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12315703860379147, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6041086743834596, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.8140192198982475, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.37962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0038876889848812094, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01637709752450573, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2315.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.964367701367402, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.533333333333331, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01049768621657816, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8908802367938793, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9190707173857544, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021281", "date": "20260412", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -3.637325440204023, "index": 96.36267455979598, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.637325440204023, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4111111111111111, "attemptProjection": 0.5894167324649655, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 8845.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.37962962962963, "projectedAttempts": 1.1111111111111112, "onNet": 0.36594265855777586, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01637709752450573, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.27804169956581615, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5002639217880382, "baseline": 0.7906976744186046, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476874", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6164374228402648, "adjustedSOG": 0.6164374228402649, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.27804169956581615, "afterPlayerForm": 0.27804169956581615, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2780416995658161, "afterRecentZones": 0.27804169956581615, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.27804169956581615, "adjusted": 0.27804169956581615, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8908802367938793, "newChartFactor": 0.8908802367938793, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4950348616099727, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6164374228402649, "adjustedSOG": 0.6041086743834596, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 373, "beforeSOG": 0.6041086743834596, "adjustedSOG": 0.6041086743834596 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 111.0, "goalExpected": 0.03468744963123408, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03468744963123408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.034092736244683716, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057859937312681596, "modelSOG": 0.6041086743834596, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 43, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 111.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04504504504504504, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.051118453702692704, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 23.29096323911158, "btb": { "id": "8476874", "name": "Olli Maatta", "score": 23.29096323911158, "components": { "Goal model": 3.5989717223650386, "SOG model": 4.370179948586118, "Unit attack": 32.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 7.712082262210797, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 48.717948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.238903392105501, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 392 } }, { "id": "8476875", "name": "Mike Matheson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.7142857142857142, "priorSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "currentTOI": 23.804761904761904, "currentFiveTOI": 17.738095238095237, "ppShare": 0.09860012172854535, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.38571428571428573, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.71 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.668, "currentIXG": 0.09542857142857143, "priorTOI": 24.16346153846154, "priorPPTOI": 0.288034188034188, "deploymentChange": -0.3586996336996364, "ppTOIChange": 0.09768009768009772, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 24.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05276564473533127, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.08202852494541893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08598379027485246, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07875432016118587, "goalProbability": 0.082390894709012, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.36365745478261213, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5545820648429143, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.348993288590604, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.738095238095237, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09860012172854535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.42293476456592705, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.42857142857142855, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 162.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.037886340977069, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.6706231454005933, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.85982905982906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06062580556698204, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.178002943476501, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.184, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 24.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Mike Matheson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 5.933431449216698, "index": 105.9334314492167, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.52380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.952380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8571428571428572, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.933431449216698, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9071428571428568, "attemptProjection": 1.5357453799398197, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7450.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.738095238095237, "projectedAttempts": 2.428571428571428, "onNet": 0.4321874554248739, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 162.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.42293476456592705, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2928726899699097, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.42857142857142855 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7214441185413383, "baseline": 1.4615384615384615, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476875", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6174818557401878, "adjustedSOG": 1.5863082294315451, "reductionPct": 1.9272937249968147, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2928726899699097, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2409166461221721, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2928726899699097, "afterRecentZones": 1.2928726899699097, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2928726899699097, "adjusted": 1.2409166461221721, "playerFactor": 0.9598134880171791, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.178002943476501, "newChartFactor": 1.178002943476501, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7716919677281988, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5863082294315451, "adjustedSOG": 1.5545820648429143, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 149, "beforeSOG": 1.5545820648429143, "adjustedSOG": 1.5545820648429143 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.09223906953687569, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09223906953687569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0881128809473304, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787116775749225, "modelSOG": 1.5545820648429143, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 78, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 275.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05276564473533127, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.613008057762976, "btb": { "id": "8476875", "name": "Mike Matheson", "score": 40.613008057762976, "components": { "Goal model": 28.020565552699228, "SOG model": 61.95372750642674, "Unit attack": 40.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 13.793103448275861, "Shot quality": 33.67609254498715, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 36.284086284086285, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.416345865238243, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Mike Matheson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 265 } }, { "id": "8476879", "name": "Cody Ceci", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7195121951219512, "currentTOI": 16.580555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 14.18888888888889, "ppShare": 0.002288329519450801, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.16399999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.02733333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.565650406504066, "priorPPTOI": 0.01016260162601626, "deploymentChange": -0.98509485094851, "ppTOIChange": 0.0009485094850948516, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020167", "date": "20241031", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020070", "date": "20241017", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04232087888401668, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.03905938889454435, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03955978682922265, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.038306406469043305, "goalProbability": 0.038787515573999246, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.04811091049559402, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9229342566724412, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.523884103367267, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.18888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002288329519450801, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.009772207197836487, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1748.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7939090641475097, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.189837398373983, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0023844495736604163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0781433297954102, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.122964103142914, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.523884103367267, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020167", "date": "20241031", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020070", "date": "20241017", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": 2.6047776598470023, "index": 102.604777659847, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.50220913107511, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.88659793814433, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8247422680412372, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.72459499263623, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0618556701030926, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.6047776598470023, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1024700859524283, "attemptProjection": 1.0774124861041576, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5108.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.18888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4025251534430089, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.009772207197836487, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9232746193616264, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.089941286028293, "baseline": 0.7195121951219512, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476879", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9417696496657564, "adjustedSOG": 0.9417696496657564, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9417696496657564, "adjustedSOG": 0.9229342566724412, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9229342566724412, "adjustedSOG": 0.9229342566724412 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.037011537352489084, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.037011537352489084, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03633498285806793, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791824115424253, "modelSOG": 0.9229342566724412, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 85, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03225806451612903, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04232087888401668, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476881", "name": "Tomas Hertl", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.3846153846153846, "priorSOG": 2.4634146341463414, "currentTOI": 15.83974358974359, "currentFiveTOI": 11.715384615384616, "ppShare": 0.726172076249356, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.614102564102564, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.808, "currentIXG": 0.44676923076923075, "priorTOI": 17.033943089430895, "priorPPTOI": 3.3036585365853655, "deploymentChange": -1.194199499687306, "ppTOIChange": 0.3104440275171987, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.1 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14480959131266044, "goalHistoryGoals": 61.0, "goalHistoryShots": 410.0, "goalExpected": 0.3169539881005418, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3184955717761515, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2716357322218367, "goalProbability": 0.2727577016598609, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11219694380242284, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.1887637775056072, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.091267235718976, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.60163178432068, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.715384615384616, "Current_PP_Share": 0.726172076249356, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6557643595027676, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.008610960945701, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2819.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.7570385818561, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.624584717607974, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.669715447154472, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7234803973934406, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.003243076289509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8820170312379776, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8277818539879647, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8848774797589286, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.119314436387607, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.067833698030636, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Connelly", "Tomas Hertl", "Braeden Bowman" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": -3.932765625400748, "index": 96.06723437459925, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.260997067448681, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.568914956011728, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.38611925708701, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 80 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.110459433040077, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.95307917888563, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7204301075268817, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": -5.7406048670678445, "index": 94.25939513293216, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 45.27062999112689, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.287488908606925, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.033717834960071, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.932765625400748, "zonePPFit": -5.7406048670678445, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0850134006189296, "attemptProjection": 2.1055820121037616, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9138.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.715384615384616, "projectedAttempts": 2.076923076923077, "onNet": 0.5651041933599156, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 2819.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6557643595027676, "projectedAttempts": 1.9452453136765346, "onNet": 0.5203227808814401, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1815614136263886, "ppAdjusted": 0.913736292734957, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.095297706361346, "baseline": 2.4634146341463414, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476881", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2425444774753442, "adjustedSOG": 2.1887637775056072, "reductionPct": 2.3981999246803443, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1815614136263886, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1295999950349895, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1498703889503643, "afterRecentZones": 1.1730595290309647, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1421553765682595, "adjusted": 1.091926913676828, "playerFactor": 0.9560230911468903, "defenseFactor": 0.9731786902394182, "oldChartFactor": 0.8820170312379776, "newChartFactor": 0.8697762291219168, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7142061607901756, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8733075627278325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.913736292734957, "afterPlayerForm": 0.913736292734957, "afterRecentDefense": 0.913736292734957, "afterRecentZones": 0.913736292734957, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.913736292734957, "adjusted": 0.913736292734957, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8277818539879647, "newChartFactor": 0.8239116815369494, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.033333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0093606138107416, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1887637775056072, "adjustedSOG": 2.1887637775056072, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 63, "beforeSOG": 2.1887637775056072, "adjustedSOG": 2.1887637775056072 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 407.0, "goalExpected": 0.3359764305935334, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33956157094889716, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2853600507429971, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2557497288925348 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285289156945683, "modelSOG": 2.1887637775056072, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 61.0, "historyShots": 410.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14878048780487804, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14480959131266044, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 71.70364570403066, "btb": { "id": "8476881", "name": "Tomas Hertl", "score": 71.70364570403066, "components": { "Goal model": 90.23136246786632, "SOG model": 84.06169665809769, "Unit attack": 92.85714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 86.20689655172414, "Shot quality": 96.91516709511568, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 50.203500203500205, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.7005773854509263, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Connelly", "Tomas Hertl", "Braeden Bowman" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 10 } }, { "id": "8476882", "name": "Teuvo Teravainen", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1891891891891893, "currentTOI": 15.225925925925926, "currentFiveTOI": 10.488888888888889, "ppShare": 0.42103174603174603, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9648148148148148, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9169999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.10188888888888888, "priorTOI": 17.752252252252255, "priorPPTOI": 2.6722972972972974, "deploymentChange": -2.5263263263263287, "ppTOIChange": -0.7074824824824826, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13914718099565382, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.14671502152711552, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14671502152711552, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13645996732578553, "goalProbability": 0.13645996732578553, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0543873075782835, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.4491525423728815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.786050895381716, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.488888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42103174603174603, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8912618446368448, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9811709781784709, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1061.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2520.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6254440253414875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.9785082174462705, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.30045045045045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.617504985967329, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9465399610136453, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0136046813205548, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1604796434555562, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9594173355404064, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.827586206896552, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.698365527488855, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Jordan Greenway", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": 0.45348937735182915, "index": 100.45348937735183, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.01063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.88297872340425, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.95744680851064, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.43617021276596, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.308510638297872, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 5.349321448518538, "index": 105.34932144851854, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.42424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.484848484848486, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.75757575757576, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.696969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.45348937735182915, "zonePPFit": 5.349321448518538, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9922022999369108, "attemptProjection": 0.9368364730717821, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5664.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.488888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.516927499201533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1061.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8912618446368448, "projectedAttempts": 0.42780663780663786, "onNet": 0.5084887426213237, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7229699165965411, "ppAdjusted": 0.24154946990780526, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9645193865043464, "baseline": 1.1891891891891893, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476882", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0543873075782835, "adjustedSOG": 1.0543873075782835, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0543873075782835, "adjustedSOG": 1.0543873075782835, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 293, "beforeSOG": 1.0543873075782835, "adjustedSOG": 1.0543873075782835 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.1474433682375934, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15229199000715998, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13708869487433445, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41738037644677983 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857331746661377, "modelSOG": 1.0543873075782835, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 74, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14423076923076922, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13914718099565382, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.60371081836378, "btb": { "id": "8476882", "name": "Teuvo Teravainen", "score": 44.60371081836378, "components": { "Goal model": 49.61439588688946, "SOG model": 24.93573264781491, "Unit attack": 29.761904761904763, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.077120822622106, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.667616334283004, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.195097987569326, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Jordan Greenway", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 221 } }, { "id": "8476885", "name": "Jacob Trouba", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.049382716049383, "currentTOI": 22.120833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 17.372222222222224, "ppShare": 0.17045164582801736, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9277777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.783, "currentIXG": 0.06525, "priorTOI": 22.82716049382716, "priorPPTOI": 0.657201646090535, "deploymentChange": -0.7063271604938279, "ppTOIChange": 0.2705761316872427, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021117", "date": "20260322", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020919", "date": "20250225", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020213", "date": "20241107", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04781630377588454, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 293.0, "goalExpected": 0.07193109928195256, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07193109928195256, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06940498773309799, "goalProbability": 0.06940498773309799, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5043216142154, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.3172369683402625, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.389221556886228, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.372222222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.17045164582801736, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8466303117936188, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 668.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.5997582838150874, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.398246712586099, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.387037037037036, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12550779025437578, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7609189047975717, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.7986289631533845, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021117", "date": "20260322", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020919", "date": "20250225", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020213", "date": "20241107", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Darnell Nurse", "Jacob Trouba" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 201, "fitPct": -7.969369840080944, "index": 92.03063015991906, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.60826303266278, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 149 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.5970149253731344, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.797750378542072, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.19900497512437815, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.001946787800133, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7960199004975126, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": 13.383209836916905, "index": 113.3832098369169, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 84.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.969369840080944, "zonePPFit": 13.383209836916905, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.149951334601437, "attemptProjection": 1.2251500018613883, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 12508.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.372222222222224, "projectedAttempts": 2.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.4161495180174589, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 668.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8466303117936188, "projectedAttempts": 0.22813391635157393, "onNet": 0.4171907756813417, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0906800188678503, "ppAdjusted": 0.09687064936356224, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1875506682314128, "baseline": 2.049382716049383, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476885", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5322834873586009, "adjustedSOG": 1.5043216142154, "reductionPct": 1.8248498645249134, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0906800188678503, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0482509727809624, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0906800188678503, "afterRecentZones": 1.0906800188678503, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0906800188678503, "adjusted": 1.0482509727809624, "playerFactor": 0.9610985391197225, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7609189047975717, "newChartFactor": 0.7609189047975717, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 86.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7803135137587623, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.09687064936356224, "afterPlayerForm": 0.09294507451261974, "afterRecentDefense": 0.09661165285174203, "afterRecentZones": 0.09687064936356224, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.09661165285174203, "adjusted": 0.0926965735451152, "playerFactor": 0.9594761171032358, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.633333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.559463986599665, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5043216142154, "adjustedSOG": 1.5043216142154, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 163, "beforeSOG": 1.5043216142154, "adjustedSOG": 1.5043216142154 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.0641007422207121, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060332436184199145, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06208949241621809, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.35410014257383493 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791807383922623, "modelSOG": 1.5043216142154, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 293.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04436860068259386, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04781630377588454, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.28356020215695, "btb": { "id": "8476885", "name": "Jacob Trouba", "score": 33.28356020215695, "components": { "Goal model": 22.87917737789203, "SOG model": 58.354755784061695, "Unit attack": 26.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 13.881748071979434, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.97041420118343, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1650606785504927, "unitPlayers": [ "Darnell Nurse", "Jacob Trouba" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 331 } }, { "id": "8476887", "name": "Filip Forsberg", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 3, "currentTOI": 20.451515151515153, "currentFiveTOI": 15.70909090909091, "ppShare": 0.7455262359720959, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7242424242424246, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.1550000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.28681818181818186, "priorTOI": 18.88678861788618, "priorPPTOI": 2.8510162601626017, "deploymentChange": 1.5647265336289742, "ppTOIChange": 0.8732261640798229, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13108207581643375, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 555.0, "goalExpected": 0.3468471761349487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3468471761349487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2930866467659604, "goalProbability": 0.2930866467659604, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.6460305421213395, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.291666666666667, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.787632221318145, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.70909090909091, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7455262359720959, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.919660664883595, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.0122748750964923, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2458.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.375089477451683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.832394667427105, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.765040650406505, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7060523083737694, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1010860484544696, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9807658167809375, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8282616388970071, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0799075576585428, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.110926291714315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.419083255378858, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Filip Forsberg" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 268, "fitPct": -0.6411394406354134, "index": 99.35886055936459, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.680391147709727, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.292846114256305, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.794647452393207, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.909933093154915, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.139475038600104, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.182707153885743, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 77, "fitPct": -5.72461203676643, "index": 94.27538796323357, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 29.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.233766233766232, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.233766233766232, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5194805194805194, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.467532467532468, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6411394406354134, "zonePPFit": -5.72461203676643, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.640515056927911, "attemptProjection": 2.8434653807829813, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 46.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 10368.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.70909090909091, "projectedAttempts": 4.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.47667066027689026, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2458.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.919660664883595, "projectedAttempts": 1.7222268177682192, "onNet": 0.5011009751494181, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.998966528084529, "ppAdjusted": 0.6521145998618261, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.741990218855446, "baseline": 3, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476887", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.845194131313268, "adjustedSOG": 2.845194131313268, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.845194131313268, "adjustedSOG": 2.845194131313268, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 23, "beforeSOG": 2.845194131313268, "adjustedSOG": 2.6460305421213395 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 72.0, "goalHistoryShots": 552.0, "goalExpected": 0.3292276963468497, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3292276963468497, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28052082468511813, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128587596597641, "modelSOG": 2.6460305421213395, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 73.0, "historyShots": 555.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13153153153153152, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13108207581643375, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.70744952532915, "btb": { "id": "8476887", "name": "Filip Forsberg", "score": 67.70744952532915, "components": { "Goal model": 94.34447300771208, "SOG model": 94.34447300771208, "Unit attack": 76.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.827586206896555, "Shot quality": 83.29048843187661, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.93650793650794, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0659335588582044, "unitPlayers": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Filip Forsberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 31 } }, { "id": "8476889", "name": "Radek Faksa", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 0.6551724137931034, "currentTOI": 10.746666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 8.091666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0010924981791697013, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.226, "currentIXG": 0.1226, "priorTOI": 11.73477011494253, "priorPPTOI": 0.014367816091954023, "deploymentChange": -0.9881034482758633, "ppTOIChange": -0.009367816091954022, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020348", "date": "20241127", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09240491965193909, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.07225724369748507, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07225724369748507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06970844661107214, "goalProbability": 0.06970844661107214, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7819631678665582, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.932028836251288, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.091666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010924981791697013, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.004722571674501754, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 0.988456448075644, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.515410436374733, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.416666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0029745028517501972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894704201046217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8921770283474301, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.932028836251288, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020348", "date": "20241127", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -3.594099055085664, "index": 96.40590094491434, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.514161220043572, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.7037037037037033, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.0239651416122, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.514161220043572, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.973856209150328, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.270152505446623, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.594099055085664, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.78, "attemptProjection": 0.9819454601834755, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 4855.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.091666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4720144068832887, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.004722571674501754, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7809727300917377, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8809727300917378, "baseline": 0.6551724137931034, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476889", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7906526035722841, "adjustedSOG": 0.7819631678665582, "reductionPct": 1.099020690814867, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7809727300917377, "afterPlayerForm": 0.780889724149122, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7665718125852394, "afterRecentZones": 0.7809727300917377, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7665718125852394, "adjusted": 0.7664903372488615, "playerFactor": 0.9998937146722064, "defenseFactor": 0.9673428388564926, "oldChartFactor": 0.8921770283474301, "newChartFactor": 0.8856853323954512, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 38.56666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9990945384203813, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8478682170542635, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7819631678665582, "adjustedSOG": 0.7819631678665582, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7819631678665582, "adjustedSOG": 0.7819631678665582 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.07330549878862799, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07330549878862799, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07068311852650996, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12867057725166905, "modelSOG": 0.7819631678665582, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 58, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06086956521739131, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09240491965193909, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476891", "name": "Matt Grzelcyk", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.45, "currentFiveTOI": 13.35, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 16.971568627450978, "priorPPTOI": 0.8416666666666667, "deploymentChange": -2.5215686274509785, "ppTOIChange": -0.8416666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020881", "date": "20260202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020798", "date": "20250127", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020279", "date": "20241116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.025961507190343822, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.013477202462750248, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.013230977183453771, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.013386791587280641, "goalProbability": 0.013143832564382478, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.024295902289816346, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5191224979327467, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.35, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 275.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.491247636134413, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.241700640652301, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.163970588235296, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19448934956257127, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020881", "date": "20260202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020798", "date": "20250127", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020279", "date": "20241116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.43238944875083907, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 801.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.35, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.39130508849934414, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.21619472437541953, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.21619472437541953, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476891", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5297168346252518, "adjustedSOG": 0.5297168346252518, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.21619472437541953, "afterPlayerForm": 0.21619472437541953, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21619472437541953, "afterRecentZones": 0.21619472437541953, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21619472437541953, "adjusted": 0.21619472437541953, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5297168346252518, "adjustedSOG": 0.5191224979327467, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5191224979327467, "adjustedSOG": 0.5191224979327467 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05801914883870081, "modelSOG": 0.5191224979327467, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.006172839506172839, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.025961507190343822, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476892", "name": "Colton Parayko", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "currentTOI": 21.024242424242427, "currentFiveTOI": 17.63030303030303, "ppShare": 0.021114572516441676, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09242424242424242, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.975, "currentIXG": 0.08863636363636364, "priorTOI": 22.196320346320345, "priorPPTOI": 0.19264069264069264, "deploymentChange": -1.1720779220779178, "ppTOIChange": -0.10021645021645022, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07447831089813063, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 246.0, "goalExpected": 0.09894320786728639, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09391048881837073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09420585145567843, "goalProbability": 0.08963575362675205, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4570097828926381, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.32848350981829, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.331385355792369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 59.01639344262295, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.63030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.021114572516441676, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11446657646034593, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.09556313993174, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.835714285714285, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04670169443064697, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9304606496685681, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2415398124388441, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8914277199205669, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.237560192616372, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 59.01639344262295, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cam Fowler", "Colton Parayko" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": -2.3179783443810607, "index": 97.68202165561894, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.33695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.108695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.576086956521738, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.3695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.108695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 8.0513270812948, "index": 108.0513270812948, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.3179783443810607, "zonePPFit": 8.0513270812948, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3549320482050173, "attemptProjection": 1.2551644996741314, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 11636.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.63030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.4141043843105677, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 61.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.11446657646034593, "projectedAttempts": 0.11259007520689765, "onNet": 0.4335511982570806, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1258636894262124, "ppAdjusted": 0.08827549360427109, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3050482739395743, "baseline": 1.3636363636363635, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476892", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.32848350981829, "adjustedSOG": 1.32848350981829, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.32848350981829, "adjustedSOG": 1.32848350981829, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 209, "beforeSOG": 1.32848350981829, "adjustedSOG": 1.32848350981829 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 243.0, "goalExpected": 0.09441280442305638, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0927979612782984, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09009292896088811, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14705442256014584 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769495570753201, "modelSOG": 1.32848350981829, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 246.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08130081300813008, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07447831089813063, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.01820382044007, "btb": { "id": "8476892", "name": "Colton Parayko", "score": 39.01820382044007, "components": { "Goal model": 32.64781491002571, "SOG model": 46.52956298200514, "Unit attack": 31.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 21.079691516709513, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 57.33070348454964, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2044708103751285, "unitPlayers": [ "Cam Fowler", "Colton Parayko" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 279 } }, { "id": "8476902", "name": "Esa Lindell", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.0121951219512195, "currentTOI": 20.8125, "currentFiveTOI": 16.141666666666666, "ppShare": 0.09074243813015583, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.4125, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.227, "currentIXG": 0.028375, "priorTOI": 23.234756097560975, "priorPPTOI": 0.7170731707317073, "deploymentChange": -2.4222560975609753, "ppTOIChange": -0.3045731707317073, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 25.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05867897972678648, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 186.0, "goalExpected": 0.040497144658335954, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.040497144658335954, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039688093473904514, "goalProbability": 0.039688093473904514, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6901473891825242, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.9292720702116676, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.141666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09074243813015583, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3922548120989917, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 198.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2182.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7145599122566493, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.122448979591836, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.790243902439023, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14845235891134934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.986689239019891, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9389582403069107, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9292720702116676, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 25.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -0.4436920326702989, "index": 99.5563079673297, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.83838383838383, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.04040404040404, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6161616161616161, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.080808080808081, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8080808080808081, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6161616161616161, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.4436920326702989, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4847395600767277, "attemptProjection": 0.47199786460401916, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 7748.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.141666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 0.6249999999999999, "onNet": 0.39921017297211914, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 198.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3922548120989917, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.22836871234037343, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4783687123403734, "baseline": 1.0121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476902", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6918992761847118, "adjustedSOG": 0.6901473891825242, "reductionPct": 0.25319971598293245, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.22836871234037343, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22544890067006057, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22836871234037343, "afterRecentZones": 0.22836871234037343, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.22836871234037343, "adjusted": 0.22544890067006057, "playerFactor": 0.9872144846796658, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.986689239019891, "newChartFactor": 0.986689239019891, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9267942583732057, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6901473891825242, "adjustedSOG": 0.6901473891825242, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6901473891825242, "adjustedSOG": 0.6901473891825242 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 186.0, "goalExpected": 0.04008750609221254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04008750609221254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03929463209850913, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782188201860934, "modelSOG": 0.6901473891825242, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 186.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05913978494623656, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05867897972678648, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476906", "name": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.8461538461538463, "priorSOG": 2.109090909090909, "currentTOI": 17.814102564102566, "currentFiveTOI": 13.043589743589743, "ppShare": 0.7115472387037882, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9974358974358974, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.984, "currentIXG": 0.15261538461538462, "priorTOI": 19.23242424242424, "priorPPTOI": 2.9615151515151514, "deploymentChange": -1.418321678321675, "ppTOIChange": 1.035920745920746, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07670448419697722, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 262.0, "goalExpected": 0.14253643442397718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13605767948616243, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13284404061119132, "goalProbability": 0.12720771117391103, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5636329437280291, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8582542587463782, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.307646943188519, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.082103912764593, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.043589743589743, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7115472387037882, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.668383309537463, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3118.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.703667481662592, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.577407142126265, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.492424242424244, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6702417980926126, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0150630917446768, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8957796400751245, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9656282009129555, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9056422755050206, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.608820709491851, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.289908876139048, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Shayne Gostisbehere", "Juuso Valimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": 0.5021030581558961, "index": 100.5021030581559, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.24242424242424, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 80 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.4090909090909087, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.28787878787879, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.515151515151516, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -3.4740119974958503, "index": 96.52598800250415, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70.1098901098901, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.128728414442698, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.128728414442698, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.5021030581558961, "zonePPFit": -3.4740119974958503, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7155444263998563, "attemptProjection": 1.8200337056392866, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 10174.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.043589743589743, "projectedAttempts": 2.923076923076923, "onNet": 0.3972336308348472, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 3118.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.668383309537463, "projectedAttempts": 1.2000484206953856, "onNet": 0.41956882255389716, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.133496602725645, "ppAdjusted": 0.48044630944777245, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7677890660195714, "baseline": 2.109090909090909, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 55, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476906", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9043098032481063, "adjustedSOG": 1.8582542587463782, "reductionPct": 2.4184901229397093, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.133496602725645, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0899645915430918, "afterRecentDefense": 1.133496602725645, "afterRecentZones": 1.1331544260477993, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1331544260477993, "adjusted": 1.0896355561829445, "playerFactor": 0.9615949345786529, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0150630917446768, "newChartFactor": 1.014439621702313, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.753995203061417, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.48044630944777245, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46526307932187, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4646130801029056, "afterRecentZones": 0.4779026436256395, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4621532414297101, "adjusted": 0.44754811515425924, "playerFactor": 0.9683976547902842, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 0.8957796400751245, "newChartFactor": 0.8855963840705408, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7922754414940922, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8582542587463782, "adjustedSOG": 1.8582542587463782, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 99, "beforeSOG": 1.8582542587463782, "adjustedSOG": 1.8582542587463782 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.14357927214013083, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14049763031158854, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13374787219468667, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2673596208242063 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767023279305753, "modelSOG": 1.8582542587463782, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 55, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 262.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08396946564885496, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07670448419697722, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.67294988397191, "btb": { "id": "8476906", "name": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "score": 58.67294988397191, "components": { "Goal model": 48.0719794344473, "SOG model": 74.80719794344473, "Unit attack": 85.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.41379310344827, "Shot quality": 46.27249357326478, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 34.37796771130104, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2469531682799753, "unitPlayers": [ "Shayne Gostisbehere", "Juuso Valimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 92 } }, { "id": "8476917", "name": "Adam Pelech", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.4878048780487805, "currentTOI": 20.38939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 16.38181818181818, "ppShare": 0.03216826476956387, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1575757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.509, "currentIXG": 0.04627272727272727, "priorTOI": 20.890650406504065, "priorPPTOI": 0.14735772357723578, "deploymentChange": -0.5012564671101245, "ppTOIChange": 0.010218033998521808, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.028588381907137868, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 243.0, "goalExpected": 0.037854035786543665, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.037854035786543665, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03714652721553493, "goalProbability": 0.03714652721553493, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3241055723091615, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.329633740288568, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.38181818181818, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03216826476956387, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.16062199476984507, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.786293166236979, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.580691056910567, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.032149635489650046, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1367762390661353, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9354805830190602, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 200, "fitPct": 4.559207968871178, "index": 104.55920796887118, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.36363636363636, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 135 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.109090909090906, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.559207968871178, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.227272727272727, "attemptProjection": 1.292747885360061, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 10812.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.38181818181818, "projectedAttempts": 2.8181818181818175, "onNet": 0.3698340680674883, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 104.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.16062199476984507, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0781921244982122, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2600103063163939, "baseline": 1.4878048780487805, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476917", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3511281350093485, "adjustedSOG": 1.3511281350093485, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3511281350093485, "adjustedSOG": 1.3241055723091615, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 215, "beforeSOG": 1.3241055723091615, "adjustedSOG": 1.3241055723091615 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 241.0, "goalExpected": 0.033339430260981566, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.033339430260981566, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.032789796546602044, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.058058149941482895, "modelSOG": 1.3241055723091615, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 243.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.01646090534979424, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.028588381907137868, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 26.89214580763424, "btb": { "id": "8476917", "name": "Adam Pelech", "score": 26.89214580763424, "components": { "Goal model": 5.655526992287918, "SOG model": 44.987146529562985, "Unit attack": 18.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 9.254498714652957, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 38.07488807488808, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.077555421272094, "unitPlayers": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 381 } }, { "id": "8476921", "name": "Jordan Martinook", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "priorSOG": 1.4155844155844155, "currentTOI": 14.587179487179487, "currentFiveTOI": 12.088461538461539, "ppShare": 0.006161570059333638, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03461538461538462, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.46 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.233, "currentIXG": 0.17176923076923079, "priorTOI": 14.835930735930734, "priorPPTOI": 0.03636363636363636, "deploymentChange": -0.24875124875124754, "ppTOIChange": -0.0017482517482517446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.9 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12018447931843067, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 240.0, "goalExpected": 0.17495276205807753, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1670005772314489, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16050332407219248, "goalProbability": 0.15380087711569845, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6702446956494024, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4557017931952547, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3452115812917596, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.088461538461539, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006161570059333638, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03176598760664256, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.38461538461538464, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9794663048394392, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 27.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.884213856374565, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.315584415584414, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008229716133338127, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0260733413867227, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.039278238707153, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.625732517254851, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Hall", "Jordan Martinook", "Seth Jarvis" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 165, "fitPct": 0.8691113795574239, "index": 100.86911137955742, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.316205533596836, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.949934123847168, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.99077733860343, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.4901185770751, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.798418972332017, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4545454545454548, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8691113795574239, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5038381032230879, "attemptProjection": 1.6329945516028546, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9429.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.088461538461539, "projectedAttempts": 2.7692307692307696, "onNet": 0.454064011052268, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 27.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03176598760664256, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1838009427975866, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.38461538461538464 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5684163274129712, "baseline": 1.4155844155844155, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476921", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5072835626815488, "adjustedSOG": 1.4557017931952547, "reductionPct": 3.422167584348035, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1838009427975866, "afterPlayerForm": 1.139490338297935, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1405219651632086, "afterRecentZones": 1.1838009427975866, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1405219651632086, "adjusted": 1.097831326987096, "playerFactor": 0.9625692099932478, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 1.0260733413867227, "newChartFactor": 1.0260733413867227, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7571835304424004, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4557017931952547, "adjustedSOG": 1.4557017931952547, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 174, "beforeSOG": 1.4557017931952547, "adjustedSOG": 1.4557017931952547 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.16367182079684267, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16015893260899222, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15097939292893384, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2987759221352748 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862722968266424, "modelSOG": 1.4557017931952547, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 77, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 240.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12018447931843067, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.02599380532872, "btb": { "id": "8476921", "name": "Jordan Martinook", "score": 53.02599380532872, "components": { "Goal model": 58.354755784061695, "SOG model": 55.526992287917736, "Unit attack": 86.9047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 54.37017994858612, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 31.570512820512818, "Goalie H2H": 50.339739856338575 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.379271589784146, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Hall", "Jordan Martinook", "Seth Jarvis" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 144 } }, { "id": "8476923", "name": "Damon Severson", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 1.3098591549295775, "currentTOI": 23.895238095238096, "currentFiveTOI": 20.228571428571428, "ppShare": 0.09609477841158402, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5214285714285715, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.69, "currentIXG": 0.09857142857142856, "priorTOI": 21.07323943661972, "priorPPTOI": 1.0913145539906104, "deploymentChange": 2.8219986586183765, "ppTOIChange": -0.5698859825620389, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0716329321014487, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.0777837118906127, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0768511823365903, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07483549301266264, "goalProbability": 0.07397234737570654, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08631456369560947, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0858652523179293, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1186440677966103, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.228571428571428, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09609477841158402, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5397939379619942, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 219.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2279.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3442129048455937, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.517960851796085, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.699530516431928, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25194817726215596, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0901714811257885, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.935899526993965, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Werenski", "Damon Severson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": 3.005716037526284, "index": 103.00571603752628, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.76304023845007, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.606557377049181, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.3725782414307, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9836065573770493, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.634873323397915, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.639344262295082, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.005716037526284, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9642857142857142, "attemptProjection": 1.203972503208108, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 8496.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.228571428571428, "projectedAttempts": 2.714285714285714, "onNet": 0.3616892683111094, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 219.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5397939379619942, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9412719658897682, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.084129108746911, "baseline": 1.3098591549295775, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476923", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1744211272199776, "adjustedSOG": 1.1080257676713565, "reductionPct": 5.6534541153724245, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9412719658897682, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8583297531308463, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9134301242543676, "afterRecentZones": 0.9386409396525239, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9108769210252342, "adjusted": 0.8306130333087329, "playerFactor": 0.9118828396418689, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.0901714811257885, "newChartFactor": 1.0831878677728972, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 98.81666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5279313987447959, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.3333333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1080257676713565, "adjustedSOG": 1.0858652523179293, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 279, "beforeSOG": 1.0858652523179293, "adjustedSOG": 1.0858652523179293 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.06314610517259266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06423226852365034, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.061193700787950514, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10191434176367656 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773550309420124, "modelSOG": 1.0858652523179293, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 71, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07894736842105263, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0716329321014487, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.85559989133788, "btb": { "id": "8476923", "name": "Damon Severson", "score": 39.85559989133788, "components": { "Goal model": 25.70694087403599, "SOG model": 28.53470437017995, "Unit attack": 57.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 34.96143958868895, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 50.69444444444444, "Goalie H2H": 47.57975797579758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6517871665748154, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Werenski", "Damon Severson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 271 } }, { "id": "8476952", "name": "Dominic Toninato", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 8.866666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.833333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0054869684499314125, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 8, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.04, "currentIXG": 0.013333333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.154166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -0.28749999999999964, "ppTOIChange": 0.022222222222222223, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11586884749975862, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 11.0, "goalExpected": 0.08277458635979192, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08277458635979192, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07944136969363039, "goalProbability": 0.07944136969363039, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7143817181746315, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.833333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0054869684499314125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024647296005320694, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 1.0210240499559582, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 729.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.63441603317208, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.04375, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1141562853907137, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1212543180555377, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": 4.041810601851253, "index": 104.04181060185125, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 65.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.041810601851253, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.6646057272487718, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1590.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.833333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.4909819053465463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.024647296005320694, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5239695302910525, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5239695302910525, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 8, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476952", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7143817181746315, "adjustedSOG": 0.7143817181746315, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7143817181746315, "adjustedSOG": 0.7143817181746315, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7143817181746315, "adjustedSOG": 0.7143817181746315 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 11.0, "goalExpected": 0.07673074449353404, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07925400723904381, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07386081188620196, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.233394669183061 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861442072473206, "modelSOG": 0.7143817181746315, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 8, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 11.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11586884749975862, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476958", "name": "Jaccob Slavin", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.9230769230769231, "priorSOG": 1.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 21.22948717948718, "currentFiveTOI": 17.256410256410255, "ppShare": 0.004107713372889092, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 39, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.023076923076923075, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.8119999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.06246153846153846, "priorTOI": 21.31025641025641, "priorPPTOI": 0.08803418803418803, "deploymentChange": -0.08076923076923137, "ppTOIChange": -0.06495726495726495, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04292935742355236, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.07388017052505598, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07052207109223277, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07121701724953183, "goalProbability": 0.0680928289103083, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3124188339223538, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7209707985175444, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.1515601783060925, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.256410256410255, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004107713372889092, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02117732507109504, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.071550381849188, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.475728155339805, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.29102564102564, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.019923650382632687, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0595531578400963, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0079515430102215, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.25, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaccob Slavin", "Jalen Chatfield" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": 1.9851052613365425, "index": 101.98510526133654, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.76344086021506, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.266221727845754, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.2988505747126435, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.614757137560254, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.45977011494252873, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.596959584723766, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9851052613365425, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.937145037633469, "attemptProjection": 1.6515222010513022, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 23.0, "seconds": 13460.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.256410256410255, "projectedAttempts": 3.230769230769231, "onNet": 0.46691912514637557, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02117732507109504, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6404874654962318, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7943336193423856, "baseline": 1.6153846153846154, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 39, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476958", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7227540177592773, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209707985175444, "reductionPct": 0.10350980020074063, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6404874654962318, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6404874654962318, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6404874654962318, "afterRecentZones": 1.6375154334266768, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6375154334266768, "adjusted": 1.6375154334266768, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0595531578400963, "newChartFactor": 1.0560214717126297, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 95.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0608096897295503, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7209707985175444, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209707985175444, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 120, "beforeSOG": 1.7209707985175444, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209707985175444 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.08282724665773292, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08104952551429136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0794898453089931, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1637865767704999 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057929485122186056, "modelSOG": 1.7209707985175444, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 39, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 198.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03535353535353535, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04292935742355236, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.70641563461514, "btb": { "id": "8476958", "name": "Jaccob Slavin", "score": 46.70641563461514, "components": { "Goal model": 24.164524421593832, "SOG model": 69.40874035989717, "Unit attack": 87.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 11.053984575835475, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 60.134310134310134, "Goalie H2H": 48.45880814496544 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3480911414584336, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaccob Slavin", "Jalen Chatfield" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 202 } }, { "id": "8476979", "name": "Erik Gustafsson", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 18.833333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 16.060416666666665, "ppShare": 0.37526315789473685, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4854166666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.549, "currentIXG": 0.068625, "priorTOI": 18.741666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.1333333333333333, "deploymentChange": 0.09166666666666501, "ppTOIChange": 0.3520833333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020664", "date": "20250110", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020206", "date": "20241106", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04963880580860653, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 77.0, "goalExpected": 0.06480664228416987, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06563689362373866, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06275132988000282, "goalProbability": 0.06352915890240421, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0777829022401394, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3055640889921145, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.801919833960306, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.049088359046284, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.060416666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.37526315789473685, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6025442583732055, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1900.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8135593220338984, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 26.470588235294116, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.733333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21390702563355, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1432009741460654, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0575290816542962, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.077825000691006, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.32642487046632, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020664", "date": "20250110", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020206", "date": "20241106", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Erik Gustafsson", "Brandt Clarke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 4.773365804868845, "index": 104.77336580486885, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.38461538461539, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 1.9176360551432055, "index": 101.9176360551432, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.773365804868845, "zonePPFit": 1.9176360551432055, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0078516633706984, "attemptProjection": 1.4328425168745884, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 7709.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.060416666666665, "projectedAttempts": 3.5, "onNet": 0.33277640401880193, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 713.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6025442583732055, "projectedAttempts": 0.269712918660287, "onNet": 0.4252136752136752, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.090066912814782, "ppAdjusted": 0.13028017730786143, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2203470901226434, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476979", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3322082540735862, "adjustedSOG": 1.3322082540735862, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3322082540735862, "adjustedSOG": 1.3055640889921145, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 221, "beforeSOG": 1.3055640889921145, "adjustedSOG": 1.3055640889921145 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.06122687461890693, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06122687461890693, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05939018492673374, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057860686281233566, "modelSOG": 1.3055640889921145, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 2, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 77.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03896103896103896, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04963880580860653, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.424803511777554, "btb": { "id": "8476979", "name": "Erik Gustafsson", "score": 42.424803511777554, "components": { "Goal model": 17.994858611825194, "SOG model": 43.44473007712082, "Unit attack": 82.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 82.75862068965517, "Shot quality": 20.822622107969153, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 51.30579297245964, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1944687225949697, "unitPlayers": [ "Erik Gustafsson", "Brandt Clarke" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 242 } }, { "id": "8476981", "name": "Josh Anderson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.2361111111111112, "currentTOI": 13.95, "currentFiveTOI": 11.607575757575757, "ppShare": 0.009861932938856016, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03787878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.842, "currentIXG": 0.3492727272727273, "priorTOI": 14.022453703703704, "priorPPTOI": 0.08148148148148147, "deploymentChange": -0.07245370370370452, "ppTOIChange": -0.043602693602693594, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.8181818181818183, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14197023900666766, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.2436297839210662, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25537716616646877, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21622225231827494, "goalProbability": 0.22537571921310867, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.9153466894833734, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7160623636734462, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.807988513248922, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.607575757575757, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009861932938856016, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04230171537863845, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 0.956490660479933, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0950710725493815, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 30.681818181818183, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.285416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.017150326797385623, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9611744043797663, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.901225666906994, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 35, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": -1.294186520674458, "index": 98.70581347932554, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.248677248677248, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.084656084656086, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.98412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.216931216931217, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.640211640211643, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.8253968253968256, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.294186520674458, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.959090909090909, "attemptProjection": 2.229707757976747, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 23.0, "seconds": 7661.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.607575757575757, "projectedAttempts": 3.6363636363636362, "onNet": 0.5338833883388339, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04230171537863845, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9125811517156461, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0943993335338282, "baseline": 1.2361111111111112, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8476981", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7510840445647413, "adjustedSOG": 1.751084044564741, "reductionPct": 1.1102230246251565e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9125811517156461, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9125811517156461, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9125811517156461, "afterRecentZones": 1.9125811517156461, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9125811517156461, "adjusted": 1.9125811517156461, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9611744043797663, "newChartFactor": 0.9526712587235944, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.88333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0661007514611747, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0956331264567947, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.751084044564741, "adjustedSOG": 1.7160623636734462, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 123, "beforeSOG": 1.7160623636734462, "adjustedSOG": 1.7160623636734462 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.25516084800346833, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25516084800346833, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22520813578665733, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856387199153663, "modelSOG": 1.7160623636734462, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14798206278026907, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14197023900666766, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.54058040108414, "btb": { "id": "8476981", "name": "Josh Anderson", "score": 58.54058040108414, "components": { "Goal model": 77.89203084832904, "SOG model": 68.63753213367609, "Unit attack": 63.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 90.23136246786632, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 43.58974358974359, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7184392449479278, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 95 } }, { "id": "8477015", "name": "Connor Brown", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5466666666666666, "currentTOI": 14.016666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.466666666666667, "ppShare": 0.029565217391304348, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09444444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.344, "currentIXG": 0.11466666666666665, "priorTOI": 17.55088888888889, "priorPPTOI": 1.4257777777777778, "deploymentChange": -3.5342222222222226, "ppTOIChange": -1.3313333333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021141", "date": "20250326", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021011", "date": "20250308", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020077", "date": "20241019", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1282465045496943, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.14612925975998686, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1450555325890748, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13595399041376233, "goalProbability": 0.1350257424830198, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09282479307425318, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1394404882463145, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.029565217391304348, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.16337022397891962, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 575.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.758774850702413, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021141", "date": "20250326", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021011", "date": "20250308", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020077", "date": "20241019", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 138, "fitPct": -8.040838309919565, "index": 91.95916169008044, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.08695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.405797101449277, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.91304347826087, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.478260869565218, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.376811594202899, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.739130434782609, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": -13.440253496513733, "index": 86.55974650348627, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 80.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.040838309919565, "zonePPFit": -13.440253496513733, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8500000000000002, "attemptProjection": 0.9634256969829286, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2064.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.466666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.50999099909991, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.16337022397891962, "projectedAttempts": 0.576600790513834, "onNet": 0.4991841588539506, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7874753833465102, "ppAdjusted": 0.11923746514495408, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9067128484914644, "baseline": 1.5466666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477015", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1626943757615453, "adjustedSOG": 1.1626943757615453, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1626943757615453, "adjustedSOG": 1.1394404882463145, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 262, "beforeSOG": 1.1394404882463145, "adjustedSOG": 1.1394404882463145 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286030455599545, "modelSOG": 1.1394404882463145, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.128099173553719, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1282465045496943, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.55524895038485, "btb": { "id": "8477015", "name": "Connor Brown", "score": 43.55524895038485, "components": { "Goal model": 48.84318766066838, "SOG model": 32.904884318766065, "Unit attack": 45.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 51.670951156812336, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 63.15289648622982, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.409923241024889, "unitPlayers": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 231 } }, { "id": "8477021", "name": "Alex Kerfoot", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 0.8235294117647058, "currentTOI": 16.80757575757576, "currentFiveTOI": 12.633333333333333, "ppShare": 0.2763117986047922, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 34, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3803030303030304, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.202, "currentIXG": 0.10927272727272727, "priorTOI": 12.786274509803922, "priorPPTOI": 0.34607843137254907, "deploymentChange": 4.021301247771836, "ppTOIChange": 1.0342245989304812, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020633", "date": "20260101", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020680", "date": "20250111", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020016", "date": "20241010", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1338617374448348, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.10597947433444134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10597947433444134, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1005568904450879, "goalProbability": 0.1005568904450879, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7917084923398376, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.454065723195011, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.951701427003293, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.633333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2763117986047922, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4527302138767106, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.02969383070874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 911.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0098389566993085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.09915014164306, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.562254901960785, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07267079872101806, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.033328283593395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9674154715946318, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9669476840574248, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9996577687845757, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8722001278680418, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3214709371293, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.326923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020633", "date": "20260101", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020680", "date": "20250111", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020016", "date": "20241010", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Kerfoot", "Mavrik Bourque", "Nils Hoglander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -1.0861509468456063, "index": 98.9138490531544, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.999999999999998, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.999999999999998, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -1.1017438647525069, "index": 98.8982561352475, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0861509468456063, "zonePPFit": -1.1017438647525069, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8104753013252838, "attemptProjection": 0.7305137907879007, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 8338.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.633333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.2727272727272727, "onNet": 0.5163985148514851, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 911.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4527302138767106, "projectedAttempts": 0.19135853530757987, "onNet": 0.5088152327221439, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6827226434989457, "ppAdjusted": 0.08777190255764653, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7704945460565922, "baseline": 0.8235294117647058, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 34, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477021", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7917084923398376, "adjustedSOG": 0.7917084923398376, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7917084923398376, "adjustedSOG": 0.7917084923398376, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 345, "beforeSOG": 0.7917084923398376, "adjustedSOG": 0.7917084923398376 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.10571556258726042, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10571556258726042, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10031948551695866, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859093511870678, "modelSOG": 0.7917084923398376, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 34, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 138.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13768115942028986, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1338617374448348, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.91575924569795, "btb": { "id": "8477021", "name": "Alex Kerfoot", "score": 41.91575924569795, "components": { "Goal model": 35.47557840616967, "SOG model": 11.568123393316196, "Unit attack": 36.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.79177377892031, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.15055884286654, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.279154037057577, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Kerfoot", "Mavrik Bourque", "Nils Hoglander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 250 } }, { "id": "8477220", "name": "Nate Schmidt", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.048780487804878, "currentTOI": 20.20277777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 17.55, "ppShare": 0.018331053351573187, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09305555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.726, "currentIXG": 0.0605, "priorTOI": 19.698373983739838, "priorPPTOI": 0.5819105691056911, "deploymentChange": 0.5044037940379411, "ppTOIChange": -0.4888550135501355, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020509", "date": "20241218", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020093", "date": "20241022", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06237894540159233, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.06508046059664581, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06130773429327636, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06300793059663455, "goalProbability": 0.05946623925518369, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.354169134145086, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.043308125484669, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4188034188034186, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018331053351573187, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.096585654237843, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2907165230532973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.80195599022005, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.676626016260162, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12219168260038242, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9165023415561037, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9253574366436023, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.037005887300253, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020509", "date": "20241218", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020093", "date": "20241022", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nate Schmidt", "Andrew Peeke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -2.7832552814632123, "index": 97.21674471853679, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.81250000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 93 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.3125, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.625, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5625, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.6875, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.7832552814632123, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0086907699769356, "attemptProjection": 1.07062899789879, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 12636.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.55, "projectedAttempts": 2.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.3804352323031732, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 67.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.096585654237843, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9563265506045295, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0396598839378628, "baseline": 1.048780487804878, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477220", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.043308125484669, "adjustedSOG": 1.043308125484669, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.043308125484669, "adjustedSOG": 1.043308125484669, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 296, "beforeSOG": 1.043308125484669, "adjustedSOG": 1.043308125484669 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 168.0, "goalExpected": 0.0750004785626781, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0750004785626781, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07225695765474827, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779936313028338, "modelSOG": 1.043308125484669, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 169.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0650887573964497, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06237894540159233, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.37567145851707, "btb": { "id": "8477220", "name": "Nate Schmidt", "score": 33.37567145851707, "components": { "Goal model": 18.508997429305914, "SOG model": 24.164524421593832, "Unit attack": 35.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 12.339331619537274, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 35.137701804368476, "Goalie H2H": 50.339739856338575 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.346767966130401, "unitPlayers": [ "Nate Schmidt", "Andrew Peeke" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 330 } }, { "id": "8477346", "name": "MacKenzie Weegar", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.9493670886075949, "currentTOI": 21.745833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 18.349999999999998, "ppShare": 0.05690834473324213, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.556, "currentIXG": 0.12966666666666668, "priorTOI": 22.462236286919833, "priorPPTOI": 1.8867088607594937, "deploymentChange": -0.7164029535864991, "ppTOIChange": -1.5978199718706048, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020853", "date": "20260129", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020433", "date": "20251204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020249", "date": "20251109", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 26.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021264", "date": "20250411", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04285433375589388, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 362.0, "goalExpected": 0.0839962621847154, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07912698337470456, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08056530723425034, "goalProbability": 0.07607740581322724, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4487901421023108, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9600412565780037, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.449591280653951, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.349999999999998, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05690834473324213, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.29984800121599026, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 208.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.13600509355877, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.063737001006373, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.893037974683544, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39617793955445535, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9286403684116813, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.937612739120973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.949133901567226, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020853", "date": "20260129", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020433", "date": "20251204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020249", "date": "20251109", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 26.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021264", "date": "20250411", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020784", "date": "20250125", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020319", "date": "20241123", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mikhail Sergachev", "MacKenzie Weegar" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 32, "priorAttempts": 184, "fitPct": -2.37865438627729, "index": 97.62134561372271, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.51086956521739, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 130 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.2771739130434785, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.619565217391304, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.4021739130434785, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.793478260869563, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3967391304347823, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.37865438627729, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.896021231868288, "attemptProjection": 2.0382935052482645, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 58.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 13212.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.349999999999998, "projectedAttempts": 4.833333333333333, "onNet": 0.3699681436432088, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 208.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.29984800121599026, "projectedAttempts": 0.17298923147076362, "onNet": 0.405982905982906, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6002798511981573, "ppAdjusted": 0.033544184026785474, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9671573685582762, "baseline": 1.9493670886075949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477346", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020249", "date": "20251109", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9600412565780037, "adjustedSOG": 1.9600412565780037, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9600412565780037, "adjustedSOG": 1.9600412565780037, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 89, "beforeSOG": 1.9600412565780037, "adjustedSOG": 1.9600412565780037 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.07385711831882721, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07385711831882721, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0711956065058902, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05798702195222974, "modelSOG": 1.9600412565780037, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 362.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03867403314917127, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04285433375589388, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.64189070945266, "btb": { "id": "8477346", "name": "MacKenzie Weegar", "score": 45.64189070945266, "components": { "Goal model": 28.27763496143959, "SOG model": 77.37789203084833, "Unit attack": 90.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 39.0745501285347, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 31.758002346237642, "Goalie H2H": 45.33239038189533 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3830146098269034, "unitPlayers": [ "Mikhail Sergachev", "MacKenzie Weegar" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 211 } }, { "id": "8477365", "name": "Connor Clifton", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7, "currentTOI": 20.627777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 17.944444444444446, "ppShare": 0.05068078668683813, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.18611111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.304, "currentIXG": 0.050666666666666665, "priorTOI": 16.765666666666664, "priorPPTOI": 0.007666666666666667, "deploymentChange": 3.862111111111112, "ppTOIChange": 0.17844444444444446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021112", "date": "20260322", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021078", "date": "20260318", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021018", "date": "20260310", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021235", "date": "20250408", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020705", "date": "20250115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.043086481550255754, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.034118668553112595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.034118668553112595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0335431901989588, "goalProbability": 0.0335431901989588, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7918648106208633, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7863777089783284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.944444444444446, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05068078668683813, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.23706533580304384, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1322.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.796435915010281, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.59, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001740398279903291, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7863777089783284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021112", "date": "20260322", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021078", "date": "20260318", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021018", "date": "20260310", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021235", "date": "20250408", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020705", "date": "20250115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": -16.535033001943702, "index": 83.4649669980563, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.807017543859649, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.605263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7017543859649122, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.51754385964912, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7017543859649122, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -16.535033001943702, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8750000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.9006263504956279, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 6460.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.944444444444446, "projectedAttempts": 2.166666666666667, "onNet": 0.39613586529311984, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 67.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.23706533580304384, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7211465085811474, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.887813175247814, "baseline": 0.7, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477365", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8126879051486884, "adjustedSOG": 0.8080253169600646, "reductionPct": 0.573724323825231, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7211465085811474, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7171137396001463, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7173872750000105, "afterRecentZones": 0.7211465085811474, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7173872750000105, "adjusted": 0.7133755282667746, "playerFactor": 0.9944078367807181, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9682834702320283, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.9833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8080253169600646, "adjustedSOG": 0.7918648106208633, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7918648106208633, "adjustedSOG": 0.7918648106208633 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.04606895289152011, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04431142616944354, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04502388844377954, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1679871812391806 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05789642236252173, "modelSOG": 0.7918648106208633, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 50, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 104.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.028846153846153848, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.043086481550255754, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477369", "name": "Carson Soucy", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.7142857142857143, "priorSOG": 0.8157894736842105, "currentTOI": 14.742857142857144, "currentFiveTOI": 13.31904761904762, "ppShare": 0.0027685492801771874, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011904761904761904, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.71 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.153, "currentIXG": 0.021857142857142856, "priorTOI": 16.519298245614035, "priorPPTOI": 0.030701754385964914, "deploymentChange": -1.7764411027568912, "ppTOIChange": -0.01879699248120301, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021205", "date": "20260403", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020549", "date": "20251220", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021246", "date": "20250409", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.059603776539482005, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.04875198205280654, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04816750667902461, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04758268300421738, "goalProbability": 0.04702585582683511, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.055682717738226445, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.817934447836755, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2177332856632104, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.31904761904762, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0027685492801771874, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01555179316807224, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1806.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.217397780591346, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.722587719298247, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006698326958642151, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1713729376391597, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.966014418125644, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021205", "date": "20260403", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020549", "date": "20251220", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021246", "date": "20250409", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": 5.712431254638659, "index": 105.71243125463866, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 63.91304347826087, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.0434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.0434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.521739130434778, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.6086956521739135, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.712431254638659, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8214285714285713, "attemptProjection": 0.9341876856678354, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5594.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.31904761904762, "projectedAttempts": 2.2857142857142856, "onNet": 0.37812968959797805, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 5.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01555179316807224, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8778081285482033, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8778081285482033, "baseline": 0.8157894736842105, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477369", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021205", "date": "20260403", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8530006666026062, "adjustedSOG": 0.8346269875885255, "reductionPct": 2.154005235102663, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8778081285482033, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8730079948624164, "afterRecentDefense": 0.851843480936284, "afterRecentZones": 0.8778081285482033, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.851843480936284, "adjusted": 0.8471853301914021, "playerFactor": 0.9945316823464305, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.1713729376391597, "newChartFactor": 1.1713729376391597, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9636852260198456, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8346269875885255, "adjustedSOG": 0.817934447836755, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.817934447836755, "adjustedSOG": 0.817934447836755 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.03422003637556048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03480864828252457, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.033641152856043764, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05686429524048714 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781736581791537, "modelSOG": 0.817934447836755, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 76, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 148.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.060810810810810814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.059603776539482005, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477402", "name": "Pavel Buchnevich", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.7530864197530864, "currentTOI": 17.641666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 12.965, "ppShare": 0.4178006620080912, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8933333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.729, "currentIXG": 0.27290000000000003, "priorTOI": 17.9380658436214, "priorPPTOI": 2.2786008230452675, "deploymentChange": -0.2963991769547327, "ppTOIChange": -0.38526748971193414, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13612288077618126, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 303.0, "goalExpected": 0.2310337904161764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2192823202240005, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20628735429851253, "goalProbability": 0.19690504380253776, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9382310495974766, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6972443508307136, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.5534130350944855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.338028169014085, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.965, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4178006620080912, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.2649860131287123, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.0100944427278242, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1136.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.666110860045815, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.476973090121004, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.203909465020576, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5523989657043114, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9303308387076744, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0122907326870212, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9517043542168316, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0236933781214217, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.064690026954178, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.4188034188034186, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Neighbours", "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Pavel Buchnevich" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": -2.3223053764108528, "index": 97.67769462358915, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.39506172839506, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.12345679012346, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.59259259259259, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.469135802469136, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7037037037037033, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.71604938271605, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": 0.40969108956737443, "index": 100.40969108956737, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 42.35294117647059, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.941176470588236, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.52941176470588, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.3223053764108528, "zonePPFit": 0.40969108956737443, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5869731669451455, "attemptProjection": 1.7330594428197845, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7779.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.965, "projectedAttempts": 2.2, "onNet": 0.5145764576457645, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1136.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.2649860131287123, "projectedAttempts": 1.0766658865224512, "onNet": 0.46539647629748276, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0959506838756807, "ppAdjusted": 0.3640656210067843, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.660016304882465, "baseline": 1.7530864197530864, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477402", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6972443508307136, "adjustedSOG": 1.6972443508307136, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6972443508307136, "adjustedSOG": 1.6972443508307136, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 128, "beforeSOG": 1.6972443508307136, "adjustedSOG": 1.6972443508307136 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.22598658202357313, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22212129187550358, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20227119449983055, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3089420199012677 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857520952801058, "modelSOG": 1.6972443508307136, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 303.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13861386138613863, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13612288077618126, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.47776700461743, "btb": { "id": "8477402", "name": "Pavel Buchnevich", "score": 59.47776700461743, "components": { "Goal model": 74.03598971722366, "SOG model": 67.3521850899743, "Unit attack": 38.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 51.724137931034484, "Shot quality": 79.43444730077121, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 54.437869822485204, "Goalie H2H": 48.82308985615543 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.279482831447325, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Neighbours", "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Pavel Buchnevich" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 87 } }, { "id": "8477407", "name": "Anthony Duclair", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.1935483870967742, "currentTOI": 13.018181818181818, "currentFiveTOI": 11.496969696969698, "ppShare": 0.1957933807609032, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9590909090909091, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.378, "currentIXG": 0.12527272727272726, "priorTOI": 13.20510752688172, "priorPPTOI": 1.160215053763441, "deploymentChange": -0.18692570869990277, "ppTOIChange": -0.20112414467253192, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13763511308102414, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 146.0, "goalExpected": 0.16379734292196255, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16379734292196255, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1510859571115827, "goalProbability": 0.1510859571115827, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1900839782471573, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.218766473379019, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.687203791469194, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.496969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1957933807609032, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9776319489356916, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.992892932238579, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 633.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.745825431333549, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.345690454124188, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.623118279569892, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25312884973110183, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005615891580804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1210520828047514, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1273477897582174, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.237887385421214, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": 4.035069426825046, "index": 104.03506942682505, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.555555555555557, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": -12.904606098887626, "index": 87.09539390111237, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.2105263157894735, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.94736842105263, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.105263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.421052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.035069426825046, "zonePPFit": -12.904606098887626, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2061143448857377, "attemptProjection": 1.2503924935673976, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7588.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.496969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 2.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.48715547230398715, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 633.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9776319489356916, "projectedAttempts": 0.2779996063324242, "onNet": 0.4992149453122921, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1301307043447686, "ppAdjusted": 0.09812271488179883, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2282534192265677, "baseline": 1.1935483870967742, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477407", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2143714063746502, "adjustedSOG": 1.2143714063746502, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2143714063746502, "adjustedSOG": 1.1900839782471573, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 250, "beforeSOG": 1.1900839782471573, "adjustedSOG": 1.1900839782471573 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 145.0, "goalExpected": 0.14428309454402183, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14428309454402183, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1343573453440664, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858237817931933, "modelSOG": 1.1900839782471573, "historyGames": 117, "seasonGames": { "2024": 44, "2025": 62, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 146.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14383561643835616, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13763511308102414, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.353408343319906, "btb": { "id": "8477407", "name": "Anthony Duclair", "score": 44.353408343319906, "components": { "Goal model": 55.26992287917738, "SOG model": 35.98971722365039, "Unit attack": 44.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 38.56041131105398, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.4792899408284, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4070685232060374, "unitPlayers": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 223 } }, { "id": "8477409", "name": "Carter Verhaeghe", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 2.4285714285714284, "currentTOI": 18.13611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 13.481944444444444, "ppShare": 0.5077166600712307, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5638888888888887, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.769, "currentIXG": 0.3140833333333333, "priorTOI": 17.612770562770564, "priorPPTOI": 2.5194805194805197, "deploymentChange": 0.5233405483405456, "ppTOIChange": 1.044408369408369, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11612048508190838, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 450.0, "goalExpected": 0.25624219258239195, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2577763071143455, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22604549994762593, "goalProbability": 0.22723192450496166, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11864245573357246, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.2066924057511934, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.562995776243947, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.611847233047545, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.481944444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5077166600712307, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7723765654167316, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0086448480146264, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2566.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.038338170154269, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.77319587628866, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.170995670995673, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4928280082116832, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0956465240884525, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.167430624646928, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.850662474736133, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.8441558441558445, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart", "Sandis Vilmanis" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 199, "fitPct": 3.1882174696150827, "index": 103.18821746961508, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.43718592964824, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.040201005025125, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.859296482412063, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.43718592964824, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.422110552763822, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.8040201005025125, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": 5.581020821564266, "index": 105.58102082156427, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.678876678876676, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.695970695970697, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.35042735042735, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.36996336996337, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.6349206349206349, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.1882174696150827, "zonePPFit": 5.581020821564266, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9023646136873285, "attemptProjection": 2.3652966303643512, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9707.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.481944444444444, "projectedAttempts": 3.583333333333333, "onNet": 0.42753100415678996, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2566.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7723765654167316, "projectedAttempts": 0.9723846098499838, "onNet": 0.4934594816947759, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5504162659730039, "ppAdjusted": 0.41674768938616935, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.13383062202584, "baseline": 2.4285714285714284, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477409", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.251726944644075, "adjustedSOG": 2.251726944644075, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.251726944644075, "adjustedSOG": 2.2066924057511934, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 62, "beforeSOG": 2.2066924057511934, "adjustedSOG": 2.2066924057511934 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 447.0, "goalExpected": 0.24854572333175556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24854572333175556, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22006580117027455, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866266795049602, "modelSOG": 2.2066924057511934, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 450.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11612048508190838, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.86436571997757, "btb": { "id": "8477409", "name": "Carter Verhaeghe", "score": 62.86436571997757, "components": { "Goal model": 80.97686375321337, "SOG model": 84.31876606683805, "Unit attack": 77.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.03448275862069, "Shot quality": 86.63239074550128, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 48.494098494098495, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.068357938356347, "unitPlayers": [ "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart", "Sandis Vilmanis" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 64 } }, { "id": "8477444", "name": "Andre Burakovsky", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.1756756756756757, "currentTOI": 12.291666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 9.697222222222221, "ppShare": 0.387153541575011, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.444444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.351, "currentIXG": 0.058499999999999996, "priorTOI": 16.44144144144144, "priorPPTOI": 2.1427927927927928, "deploymentChange": -4.149774774774775, "ppTOIChange": 0.3016516516516514, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021056", "date": "20260314", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020419", "date": "20251202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021258", "date": "20250410", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020538", "date": "20241221", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11139740625395785, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.07031793110296465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07171473377114952, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06790256997133501, "goalProbability": 0.06920361728389364, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13010473125586314, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6312349045421901, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0624462904611858, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.697222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.387153541575011, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8446666741871318, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 880.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9531910709017604, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.54067689720412, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.74189189189189, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49514896219917126, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9974150351724723, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.796374997385001, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.407221664994985, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021056", "date": "20260314", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020419", "date": "20251202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021258", "date": "20250410", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020538", "date": "20241221", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020223", "date": "20241108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nick Cousins", "Stephen Halliday", "Andre Burakovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": -6.787500087166634, "index": 93.21249991283337, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.752475247524753, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 58.46534653465346, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.485148514851486, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.9603960396039604, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.9405940594059405, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.396039603960396, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.787500087166634, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.28333333333333327, "attemptProjection": 0.3113931568933167, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.697222222222221, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.4955626553070643, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 880.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8446666741871318, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.297363245113325, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.297363245113325, "baseline": 1.1756756756756757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477444", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6486882173382653, "adjustedSOG": 0.6441172495328471, "reductionPct": 0.7046478852620552, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.297363245113325, "afterPlayerForm": 0.29313032851526194, "afterRecentDefense": 0.29392899606870715, "afterRecentZones": 0.297363245113325, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.29392899606870715, "adjusted": 0.289744965437628, "playerFactor": 0.9857651654411764, "defenseFactor": 0.9779426813429017, "oldChartFactor": 0.796374997385001, "newChartFactor": 0.796374997385001, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 48.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8942110655737705, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8985160168770259, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.316666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6441172495328471, "adjustedSOG": 0.6312349045421901, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 371, "beforeSOG": 0.6312349045421901, "adjustedSOG": 0.6312349045421901 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.037863447463996995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03663240297874798, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037155589239211105, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11860341826565243 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864811501203183, "modelSOG": 0.6312349045421901, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 74, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 204.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10294117647058823, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11139740625395785, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.12896742814285, "btb": { "id": "8477444", "name": "Andre Burakovsky", "score": 35.12896742814285, "components": { "Goal model": 21.85089974293059, "SOG model": 4.884318766066838, "Unit attack": 20.238095238095237, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 23.90745501285347, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 57.31837606837607, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.10334896775496, "unitPlayers": [ "Nick Cousins", "Stephen Halliday", "Andre Burakovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 311 } }, { "id": "8477446", "name": "Michael McCarron", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.9230769230769231, "priorSOG": 1.379746835443038, "currentTOI": 13.706410256410257, "currentFiveTOI": 10.626923076923077, "ppShare": 0.0005896226415094339, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.002564102564102564, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.686, "currentIXG": 0.1296923076923077, "priorTOI": 14.031434599156118, "priorPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "deploymentChange": -0.325024342745861, "ppTOIChange": -0.08076923076923076, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020811", "date": "20260124", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020612", "date": "20251229", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020032", "date": "20251011", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021288", "date": "20250414", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08557998818972996, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.12783998960972612, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13310162368709544, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12000582390858865, "goalProbability": 0.12462387136133782, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.46180474527491716, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.493807048983299, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.554831704668839, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.626923076923077, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0005896226415094339, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0024838168742944682, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0114213881458354, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.818814878089543, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.36097046413502, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01579413690820139, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9599248429939258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.185100976327403, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020811", "date": "20260124", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020612", "date": "20251229", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020032", "date": "20251011", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021288", "date": "20250414", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021257", "date": "20250410", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020232", "date": "20241109", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": -8.848929542475986, "index": 91.15107045752401, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.144349477682812, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.036087369420703, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.162393162393165, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.752136752136752, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.759734093067426, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.145299145299145, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.848929542475986, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6692307692307695, "attemptProjection": 1.5898462801646012, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 8289.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.626923076923077, "projectedAttempts": 2.6923076923076925, "onNet": 0.5589767398672176, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0024838168742944682, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3987692939284546, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6295385246976855, "baseline": 1.379746835443038, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477446", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020811", "date": "20260124", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020032", "date": "20251011", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5296218489958264, "adjustedSOG": 1.5242929071258153, "reductionPct": 0.3483829597170973, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3987692939284546, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3987692939284546, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3898877241451029, "afterRecentZones": 1.3987692939284546, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3898877241451029, "adjusted": 1.3898877241451029, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9869299981376292, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2696580619002567, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9395448378343455, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5242929071258153, "adjustedSOG": 1.493807048983299, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 164, "beforeSOG": 1.493807048983299, "adjustedSOG": 1.493807048983299 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.13942057470276845, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13942057470276845, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13013789048263935, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12872116291575209, "modelSOG": 1.493807048983299, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 79, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06542056074766354, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08557998818972996, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.69442313732683, "btb": { "id": "8477446", "name": "Michael McCarron", "score": 40.69442313732683, "components": { "Goal model": 43.958868894601544, "SOG model": 58.09768637532134, "Unit attack": 97.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 37.789203084832906, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 29.64638846991788, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.1965044000721345, "unitPlayers": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 262 } }, { "id": "8477447", "name": "Shea Theodore", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.3076923076923075, "priorSOG": 1.8571428571428572, "currentTOI": 21.6974358974359, "currentFiveTOI": 17.9974358974359, "ppShare": 0.35497166409067493, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.31 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8199999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.13999999999999999, "priorTOI": 22.83642857142857, "priorPPTOI": 1.256904761904762, "deploymentChange": -1.1389926739926715, "ppTOIChange": 0.5097619047619046, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 28.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0638591731547642, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.12767007022258287, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1282910250094229, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11985628313291889, "goalProbability": 0.12040264293709116, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05463598041722667, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9992440226742594, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3853825331243765, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.83744557329463, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.9974358974359, "Current_PP_Share": 0.35497166409067493, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7870320281641767, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.46153846153846156, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1378.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.9456782032214965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.4097366925554082, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.89095238095238, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2752542209063948, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8564432510488597, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8239255707262966, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.68384074941452, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.352668213457077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 28.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brayden McNabb", "Shea Theodore" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 163, "fitPct": -4.785224965038012, "index": 95.21477503496199, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70.83260297984224, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 114 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.842243645924628, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.47239263803681, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.900964066608237, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.091148115687993, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.8606485539000883, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": -5.869147642456781, "index": 94.13085235754322, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.785224965038012, "zonePPFit": -5.869147642456781, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0330304066103912, "attemptProjection": 2.177884368844589, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 48.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 14038.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.9974358974359, "projectedAttempts": 3.6923076923076925, "onNet": 0.41792407666802606, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1378.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.7870320281641767, "projectedAttempts": 0.5446686878294297, "onNet": 0.42300194931773877, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4345760727552246, "ppAdjusted": 0.20934285343380396, "other": 0.46153846153846156 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.10545738772749, "baseline": 1.8571428571428572, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477447", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.0061315754936366, "adjustedSOG": 1.9992440226742594, "reductionPct": 0.343325079148038, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4345760727552246, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4345760727552246, "afterRecentDefense": 1.423096818056262, "afterRecentZones": 1.4345760727552246, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.423096818056262, "adjusted": 1.423096818056262, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.8564432510488597, "newChartFactor": 0.8564432510488597, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 93.61666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0413328585840602, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.20934285343380396, "afterPlayerForm": 0.20934285343380396, "afterRecentDefense": 0.20934285343380396, "afterRecentZones": 0.20934285343380396, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.20934285343380396, "adjusted": 0.20934285343380396, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8239255707262966, "newChartFactor": 0.8239255707262966, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.983333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3167701863354038, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9992440226742594, "adjustedSOG": 1.9992440226742594, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 85, "beforeSOG": 1.9992440226742594, "adjustedSOG": 1.9992440226742594 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.13341228318658963, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1348359001930222, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12489577303472423, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12449269000991553 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05777359184048516, "modelSOG": 1.9992440226742594, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 70, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 288.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06597222222222222, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0638591731547642, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.94372869498902, "btb": { "id": "8477447", "name": "Shea Theodore", "score": 48.94372869498902, "components": { "Goal model": 43.70179948586118, "SOG model": 78.40616966580977, "Unit attack": 93.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 20.689655172413794, "Shot quality": 42.159383033419026, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 41.98209198209198, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6213243285393046, "unitPlayers": [ "Brayden McNabb", "Shea Theodore" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 190 } }, { "id": "8477451", "name": "Ryan Hartman", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.8461538461538461, "priorSOG": 2.1973684210526314, "currentTOI": 13.224358974358974, "currentFiveTOI": 11.930769230769231, "ppShare": 0.27417452830188677, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1923076923076923, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.935, "currentIXG": 0.14884615384615385, "priorTOI": 16.74473684210526, "priorPPTOI": 1.6789473684210525, "deploymentChange": -3.520377867746287, "ppTOIChange": -0.48663967611336023, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10978771252489465, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.1559460320152324, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16236445365924862, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14439463557767876, "goalProbability": 0.1498686853950469, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5474049817368154, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4204324730772693, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.481624758220503, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.741935483870968, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.930769230769231, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27417452830188677, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1549748465469276, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0114213881458354, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 930.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.330095623058128, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.225705329153605, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.539912280701754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182102951820785, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9599248429939258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7760927342729262, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1998501493890692, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.769633507853403, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.964601769911504, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": -7.463575524235793, "index": 92.5364244757642, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.73498724785532, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.366566195223744, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.261534894504987, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.174124739160675, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.561094365870623, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.901692557384651, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": 6.66167164630231, "index": 106.66167164630231, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.605263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.921052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.76315789473685, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.657894736842103, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.463575524235793, "zonePPFit": 6.66167164630231, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7598449027878568, "attemptProjection": 1.178573440133235, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9306.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.930769230769231, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4541187222199145, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 930.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1549748465469276, "projectedAttempts": 0.6706305560595064, "onNet": 0.47498658586623743, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7043357627543585, "ppAdjusted": 0.26487340870618736, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.969209171460546, "baseline": 2.1973684210526314, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477451", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4604728712973802, "adjustedSOG": 1.4494208908951727, "reductionPct": 0.7567398627808641, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7043357627543585, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6956137109390297, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6989756897252377, "afterRecentZones": 0.7043357627543585, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6989756897252376, "adjusted": 0.6903200136885731, "playerFactor": 0.9876166279258338, "defenseFactor": 0.9869299981376292, "oldChartFactor": 0.7760927342729262, "newChartFactor": 0.7754495118768507, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.916446000656527, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9395448378343455, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.26487340870618736, "afterPlayerForm": 0.26046919043496036, "afterRecentDefense": 0.26487340870618736, "afterRecentZones": 0.26487340870618736, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.26487340870618736, "adjusted": 0.26046919043496036, "playerFactor": 0.9833723653395785, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1998501493890692, "newChartFactor": 1.1998501493890692, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8136482939632546, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4494208908951727, "adjustedSOG": 1.4204324730772693, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 184, "beforeSOG": 1.4204324730772693, "adjustedSOG": 1.4204324730772693 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.17534410539283818, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17534410539283818, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16083179122496302, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12867442660854064, "modelSOG": 1.4204324730772693, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 76, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 336.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10416666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10978771252489465, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.34044517579716, "btb": { "id": "8477451", "name": "Ryan Hartman", "score": 49.34044517579716, "components": { "Goal model": 53.47043701799486, "SOG model": 52.95629820051414, "Unit attack": 53.57142857142857, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 44.473007712082264, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 65.86538461538461, "Goalie H2H": 53.21782178217822 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5561680487151754, "unitPlayers": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 182 } }, { "id": "8477478", "name": "William Carrier", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.6153846153846154, "priorSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "currentTOI": 12.984615384615385, "currentFiveTOI": 12.80897435897436, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.62 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.2969999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.2536153846153846, "priorTOI": 10.753809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.03214285714285714, "deploymentChange": 2.2308058608058605, "ppTOIChange": -0.03214285714285714, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09585296358821244, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.14290623295513621, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13641066944434554, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13316465432636496, "goalProbability": 0.1275157437180504, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5648910608314545, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4908900842029904, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.566810129116204, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.80897435897436, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.042724438158192, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.480356419603078, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.581428571428573, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007274481225004238, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.029859308225178, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.353688324377137, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "William Carrier", "Sebastian Aho", "Andrei Svechnikov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 35, "priorAttempts": 127, "fitPct": 0.9953102741725957, "index": 100.9953102741726, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.610798650168729, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.211473565804273, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.89426321709786, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.071991001124859, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.23734533183352, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.974128233970754, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9953102741725957, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8576923076923078, "attemptProjection": 1.5954310793331237, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 9991.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.80897435897436, "projectedAttempts": 3.2307692307692317, "onNet": 0.4973954715932768, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7265616935127157, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7265616935127157, "baseline": 1.1428571428571428, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477478", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4930798732504864, "adjustedSOG": 1.4908900842029904, "reductionPct": 0.14666255213318102, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7265616935127157, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7242624774860598, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7265616935127157, "afterRecentZones": 1.7252094603942025, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7252094603942025, "adjusted": 1.7229120451002222, "playerFactor": 0.9986683267471445, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.029859308225178, "newChartFactor": 1.0283600181024546, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9918594261888215, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0196615144036563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4908900842029904, "adjustedSOG": 1.4908900842029904, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 167, "beforeSOG": 1.4908900842029904, "adjustedSOG": 1.4908900842029904 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.18124261686505586, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.177352606692134, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1657670648383544, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3251494677870004 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128673879334649, "modelSOG": 1.4908900842029904, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 70, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0738255033557047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09585296358821244, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 57.695710332971075, "btb": { "id": "8477478", "name": "William Carrier", "score": 57.695710332971075, "components": { "Goal model": 48.329048843187664, "SOG model": 57.326478149100254, "Unit attack": 90.47619047619048, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 78.40616966580977, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 55.55555555555556, "Goalie H2H": 52.6035936927026 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.56947532060678, "unitPlayers": [ "William Carrier", "Sebastian Aho", "Andrei Svechnikov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 99 } }, { "id": "8477479", "name": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 2.08974358974359, "currentTOI": 17.854545454545455, "currentFiveTOI": 13.07121212121212, "ppShare": 0.7448717948717949, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5212121212121215, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.2520000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.20472727272727276, "priorTOI": 18.482264957264956, "priorPPTOI": 3.1019230769230766, "deploymentChange": -0.6277195027195006, "ppTOIChange": 0.4192890442890449, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17160869995553177, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.26439178563305304, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26439178563305304, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2323272824099664, "goalProbability": 0.2323272824099664, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5406665612032708, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9210617827750087, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.647160068846816, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.07121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7448717948717949, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.345941530691531, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9834434281842819, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2324.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.850316233309909, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663360198388096, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.594871794871796, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7167813880679987, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560975609756097, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9837623032717572, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1084162251932712, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9405727387378752, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.182621874210659, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.748047891723061, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": -0.5412565576080937, "index": 99.4587434423919, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.768154922001075, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.337278106508877, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.67616998386229, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.464228079612692, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.169445938676706, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.584722969338353, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": 3.613874173109039, "index": 103.61387417310904, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.6349206349206349, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 92.38095238095238, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5412565576080937, "zonePPFit": 3.613874173109039, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.169298473602424, "attemptProjection": 1.1799319440836924, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 8627.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.07121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 1.2727272727272727, "onNet": 0.49625599041533547, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2324.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.345941530691531, "projectedAttempts": 0.43192016317016313, "onNet": 0.5649975692756442, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6198786475896916, "ppAdjusted": 0.28200928852609397, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1746152088430581, "baseline": 2.08974358974359, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477479", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5406665612032708, "adjustedSOG": 1.5406665612032708, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5406665612032708, "adjustedSOG": 1.5406665612032708, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 156, "beforeSOG": 1.5406665612032708, "adjustedSOG": 1.5406665612032708 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 304.0, "goalExpected": 0.2413358628648198, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24927210531811142, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2144222643135637, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6209861300445596 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844740881901434, "modelSOG": 1.5406665612032708, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 307.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18566775244299674, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17160869995553177, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.01291624684941, "btb": { "id": "8477479", "name": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "score": 55.01291624684941, "components": { "Goal model": 81.74807197943444, "SOG model": 60.15424164524421, "Unit attack": 4.761904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 66.32390745501286, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.98005698005698, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.897422060622221, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 124 } }, { "id": "8477488", "name": "Brett Pesce", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.2162162162162162, "currentTOI": 21.275757575757577, "currentFiveTOI": 18.672727272727272, "ppShare": 0.027725267800882167, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.361, "currentIXG": 0.032818181818181816, "priorTOI": 20.304954954954955, "priorPPTOI": 0.09504504504504505, "deploymentChange": 0.9708026208026226, "ppTOIChange": 0.038288288288288286, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04215608109655551, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.04504766400491813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04471666321214301, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0440480837496482, "goalProbability": 0.043731610533961233, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.031647321568696596, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.068592308230446, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.505355404089581, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.672727272727272, "Current_PP_Share": 0.027725267800882167, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.15320310859063221, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 88.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.2687747035573125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.094594594594593, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024505645136390017, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7757129204856787, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2435679247171887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": -7.47623598381071, "index": 92.52376401618929, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.58974358974359, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.4615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.17948717948718, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.47623598381071, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9272727272727271, "attemptProjection": 1.0857733661751963, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 12324.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.672727272727272, "projectedAttempts": 3.545454545454545, "onNet": 0.3590624664434444, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 88.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.15320310859063221, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0065230467239616, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0065230467239616, "baseline": 1.2162162162162162, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477488", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0904003145208634, "adjustedSOG": 1.0904003145208634, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0904003145208634, "adjustedSOG": 1.068592308230446, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 287, "beforeSOG": 1.068592308230446, "adjustedSOG": 1.068592308230446 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.03728065260691383, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03809461045949016, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.036594284921700936, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07838525922415629 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057919567607182115, "modelSOG": 1.068592308230446, "historyGames": 120, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 37, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 156.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03205128205128205, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04215608109655551, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 32.09404539446729, "btb": { "id": "8477488", "name": "Brett Pesce", "score": 32.09404539446729, "components": { "Goal model": 9.768637532133676, "SOG model": 26.47814910025707, "Unit attack": 67.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 4.627249357326479, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 57.71604938271605, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.850812331822787, "unitPlayers": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 342 } }, { "id": "8477493", "name": "Aleksander Barkov", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.891666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.766666666666667, "ppShare": 0.3898305084745763, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.025, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.09899999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.049499999999999995, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1309150808441798, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.10278902530838134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10340442020436526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09768268048006004, "goalProbability": 0.09823779112940148, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05551106493414393, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7851580172854556, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4220532319391634, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.453416149068323, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3898305084745763, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.128661616161616, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0039321334952203, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 483.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1239.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0747771499509162, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.14235224566328, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1296085787301626, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4220532319391634, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.453416149068323, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 2.492571665030539, "index": 102.49257166503054, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 4.745074855442667, "index": 104.74507485544267, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.492571665030539, "zonePPFit": 4.745074855442667, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8688988059595979, "attemptProjection": 0.7334644946229647, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1052.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.766666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 0.5000000000000001, "onNet": 0.5198631938963432, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 483.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.128661616161616, "projectedAttempts": 0.7932900432900433, "onNet": 0.5098907276624153, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4235106970984275, "ppAdjusted": 0.3776709531928539, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8011816502912813, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477493", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8011816502912813, "adjustedSOG": 0.8011816502912813, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8011816502912813, "adjustedSOG": 0.7851580172854556, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7851580172854556, "adjustedSOG": 0.7851580172854556 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.10154499155393268, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10154499155393268, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09655946876556923, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285968529188913, "modelSOG": 0.7851580172854556, "historyGames": 69, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13245033112582782, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1309150808441798, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477495", "name": "Seth Jones", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.75, "priorSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "currentTOI": 24.893055555555552, "currentFiveTOI": 15.768055555555556, "ppShare": 0.627225959635932, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 33.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.402777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.276, "currentIXG": 0.18966666666666665, "priorTOI": 23.698076923076922, "priorPPTOI": 3.4237179487179485, "deploymentChange": 1.1949786324786302, "ppTOIChange": 0.9790598290598291, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020021", "date": "20241011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06507688776681202, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 250.0, "goalExpected": 0.1474213734266674, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1483039808888311, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13706971509460472, "goalProbability": 0.13783100779266086, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07612926980561374, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.2653414827537204, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.707742446930327, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.085173501577287, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.768055555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.627225959635932, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4249546813604987, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5833333333333334, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3170.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.349981958713941, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.773450664669538, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.87724358974359, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6697031726576532, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.069753793201815, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.127971686709397, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.506692160611855, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.33246921581335, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020021", "date": "20241011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": 2.325126440060501, "index": 102.3251264400605, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70.02926829268293, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.2390243902439035, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.839024390243902, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.565853658536586, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3756097560975613, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": 9.558787674982042, "index": 109.55878767498204, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.06469002695417, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.795148247978436, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.018867924528302, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.040431266846361, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.080862533692722, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.325126440060501, "zonePPFit": 9.558787674982042, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.871686757438752, "attemptProjection": 2.577146124769088, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 11353.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.768055555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.4465477589819594, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 3170.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4249546813604987, "projectedAttempts": 1.2316871724766463, "onNet": 0.4219001610305958, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5530268887182612, "ppAdjusted": 0.5880562190523252, "other": 0.5833333333333334 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.7244164411039202, "baseline": 1.6923076923076923, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477495", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.311572941585429, "adjustedSOG": 2.311572941585429, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.311572941585429, "adjustedSOG": 2.2653414827537204, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 54, "beforeSOG": 2.2653414827537204, "adjustedSOG": 2.2653414827537204 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 246.0, "goalExpected": 0.14104500698713246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14104500698713246, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13154977551000305, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057769107183842094, "modelSOG": 2.2653414827537204, "historyGames": 127, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 52, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 250.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.068, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06507688776681202, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.56065601387391, "btb": { "id": "8477495", "name": "Seth Jones", "score": 50.56065601387391, "components": { "Goal model": 49.87146529562982, "SOG model": 86.37532133676092, "Unit attack": 39.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.03448275862069, "Shot quality": 61.43958868894602, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 49.598549598549596, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3977403684528014, "unitPlayers": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 168 } }, { "id": "8477496", "name": "Elias Lindholm", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.8333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.6521739130434783, "currentTOI": 16.543055555555558, "currentFiveTOI": 11.638888888888888, "ppShare": 0.5315511345974511, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.375, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.194, "currentIXG": 0.26616666666666666, "priorTOI": 17.882367149758455, "priorPPTOI": 2.5712560386473426, "deploymentChange": -1.339311594202897, "ppTOIChange": -0.19625603864734265, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13108079413226414, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.21200735264734696, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21200735264734696, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19104125044377068, "goalProbability": 0.19104125044377068, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6173792205853261, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.155131264916467, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.526315789473685, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.638888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5315511345974511, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.4863929006958227, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4166666666666667, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9910807999229769, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1710.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.912753143252242, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.145608266791921, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.27512077294686, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5864025601276086, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8357115442566987, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.070671378091872, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.5340160936357, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Casey Mittelstadt", "Elias Lindholm", "James Hagens" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": -5.476281858110042, "index": 94.52371814188996, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.94987468671679, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.72598162071846, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.53383458646616, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.1746031746031744, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.554720133667502, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.060985797827902, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -9.15086338067961, "index": 90.84913661932039, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.5686274509803921, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.11764705882353, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.37254901960784, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5686274509803921, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.803921568627452, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5686274509803921, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.476281858110042, "zonePPFit": -9.15086338067961, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6374445553669208, "attemptProjection": 1.7692444536130294, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8380.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.638888888888888, "projectedAttempts": 2.083333333333333, "onNet": 0.50017363851618, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1710.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.4863929006958227, "projectedAttempts": 1.0469022739771887, "onNet": 0.5003904607436775, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.870538772839577, "ppAdjusted": 0.4161390649837314, "other": 0.4166666666666667 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.703344504489975, "baseline": 1.6521739130434783, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477496", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6828762679113765, "adjustedSOG": 1.650386959780945, "reductionPct": 1.930582108140011, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.870538772839577, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8449476330383539, "afterRecentDefense": 0.870538772839577, "afterRecentZones": 0.870538772839577, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.870538772839577, "adjusted": 0.8449476330383539, "playerFactor": 0.9706031016657094, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8357115442566987, "newChartFactor": 0.8357115442566987, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.06666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7971462544589774, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2256017558130021, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4161390649837314, "afterPlayerForm": 0.38758135790090237, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4161390649837314, "afterRecentZones": 0.4161390649837314, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4161390649837314, "adjusted": 0.38758135790090237, "playerFactor": 0.9313746065057712, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.566600397614314, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.650386959780945, "adjustedSOG": 1.6173792205853261, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 141, "beforeSOG": 1.6173792205853261, "adjustedSOG": 1.6173792205853261 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.2294833991348035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22072862653986092, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20505583471077066, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6990109153851232 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859348123318484, "modelSOG": 1.6173792205853261, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 288.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13194444444444445, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13108079413226414, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.60607871577644, "btb": { "id": "8477496", "name": "Elias Lindholm", "score": 58.60607871577644, "components": { "Goal model": 68.38046272493574, "SOG model": 64.01028277634961, "Unit attack": 80.95238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.586206896551722, "Shot quality": 79.17737789203085, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.05250305250305, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2313879215214305, "unitPlayers": [ "Casey Mittelstadt", "Elias Lindholm", "James Hagens" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 94 } }, { "id": "8477497", "name": "Sean Monahan", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.6794871794871795, "currentTOI": 16.814814814814817, "currentFiveTOI": 12.666666666666666, "ppShare": 0.3069306930693069, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5499999999999998, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.744, "currentIXG": 0.30488888888888893, "priorTOI": 17.124786324786324, "priorPPTOI": 1.848931623931624, "deploymentChange": -0.3099715099715077, "ppTOIChange": -0.2989316239316242, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1236167922374478, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.18737929275278967, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18513284906867333, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17087080595706747, "goalProbability": 0.16900612024425143, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18646857128160332, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.515807758486925, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.2105263157894735, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.301075268817204, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.666666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3069306930693069, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.724124143183549, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9949718475470846, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 837.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.88186258982011, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.7443661157979893, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.81645299145299, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.426856721399446, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0986675273179953, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0926460570959724, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.22858393348581, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.64173881009394, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.950413223140496, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sean Monahan", "Cole Sillinger", "Conor Garland" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": 3.088201903199078, "index": 103.08820190319908, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.761278195488721, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.1203007518797, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.787593984962406, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.409774436090226, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.855263157894737, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.06578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 7.619464449527001, "index": 107.619464449527, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 62.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.088201903199078, "zonePPFit": 7.619464449527001, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4976876533807224, "attemptProjection": 1.519474409466884, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 6840.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.666666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.4928385718928456, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 837.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.724124143183549, "projectedAttempts": 0.24718625708724715, "onNet": 0.5196963185790001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.043803029196377, "ppAdjusted": 0.13144466889409312, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.508581031423803, "baseline": 1.6794871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477497", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5769434906491537, "adjustedSOG": 1.5467426107009439, "reductionPct": 1.9151529606033946, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.043803029196377, "afterPlayerForm": 1.043803029196377, "afterRecentDefense": 0.997609618889198, "afterRecentZones": 1.0420650792641073, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9959485817767508, "adjusted": 0.9959485817767508, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9557450888576716, "oldChartFactor": 1.0926460570959724, "newChartFactor": 1.0889306924724242, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.36666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2589729431253451, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7889537542135877, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13144466889409312, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12896431640003614, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13144466889409312, "afterRecentZones": 0.13144466889409312, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13144466889409312, "adjusted": 0.12896431640003614, "playerFactor": 0.9811300639658849, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.22858393348581, "newChartFactor": 1.22858393348581, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8254437869822486, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5467426107009439, "adjustedSOG": 1.515807758486925, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 160, "beforeSOG": 1.515807758486925, "adjustedSOG": 1.515807758486925 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 270.0, "goalExpected": 0.15415298172867228, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1568045359100792, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1428591159132268, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22697449895142663 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861829920093137, "modelSOG": 1.515807758486925, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 54, "2025": 78, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 271.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12177121771217712, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1236167922374478, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.30314980439883, "btb": { "id": "8477497", "name": "Sean Monahan", "score": 55.30314980439883, "components": { "Goal model": 62.724935732647815, "SOG model": 59.12596401028278, "Unit attack": 55.95238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 84.06169665809769, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 59.98931623931624, "Goalie H2H": 51.54119185503456 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.591601093172376, "unitPlayers": [ "Sean Monahan", "Cole Sillinger", "Conor Garland" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 122 } }, { "id": "8477498", "name": "Darnell Nurse", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 21.034848484848485, "currentFiveTOI": 17.39848484848485, "ppShare": 0.004214667041303737, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022727272727272728, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.985, "currentIXG": 0.08954545454545454, "priorTOI": 20.978455284552847, "priorPPTOI": 0.19959349593495934, "deploymentChange": 0.05639320029563777, "ppTOIChange": -0.1768662232076866, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020474", "date": "20251209", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020302", "date": "20251117", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021021", "date": "20250310", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0397515263791791, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 373.0, "goalExpected": 0.07001714578307099, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07001714578307099, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06762216657917382, "goalProbability": 0.06762216657917382, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7613699940776186, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.643124619002003, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.39848484848485, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004214667041303737, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02093417669246554, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3559.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.864267452021101, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.3319755600814664, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.840853658536584, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04900737605924802, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8024618849741084, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.823207328630094, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020474", "date": "20251209", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020302", "date": "20251117", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021021", "date": "20250310", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020777", "date": "20250125", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Darnell Nurse", "Jacob Trouba" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 221, "fitPct": -6.584603834196386, "index": 93.41539616580361, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.26244343891403, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 123 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.809954751131222, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.671945701357466, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.95475113122172, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.671945701357467, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.6289592760181, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.584603834196386, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6636363636363636, "attemptProjection": 1.6209820533001142, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 11483.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.39848484848485, "projectedAttempts": 3.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.4465477589819594, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02093417669246554, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3695819357409662, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.642309208468239, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477498", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020474", "date": "20251209", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020302", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7853855250809434, "adjustedSOG": 1.7613699940776186, "reductionPct": 1.3451173803056382, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3695819357409662, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3295560507354252, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3695819357409662, "afterRecentZones": 1.3695819357409662, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3695819357409662, "adjusted": 1.3295560507354252, "playerFactor": 0.9707751073805698, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8024618849741084, "newChartFactor": 0.7991170685538178, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.23333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.834007486451757, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.21666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7613699940776186, "adjustedSOG": 1.7613699940776186, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 111, "beforeSOG": 1.7613699940776186, "adjustedSOG": 1.7613699940776186 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 372.0, "goalExpected": 0.08378066619000415, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07885543164186412, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0803670594271428, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4540580463645888 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.058024719773517155, "modelSOG": 1.7613699940776186, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 373.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03485254691689008, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0397515263791791, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.849267065767705, "btb": { "id": "8477498", "name": "Darnell Nurse", "score": 36.849267065767705, "components": { "Goal model": 21.336760925449873, "SOG model": 71.72236503856041, "Unit attack": 26.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 21.85089974293059, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.029711029711024, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1650606785504927, "unitPlayers": [ "Darnell Nurse", "Jacob Trouba" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 298 } }, { "id": "8477499", "name": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 1.3181818181818181, "currentTOI": 17.35, "currentFiveTOI": 14.745833333333334, "ppShare": 0.01112759643916914, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0625, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.33399999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.08349999999999999, "priorTOI": 21.38598484848485, "priorPPTOI": 1.2507575757575757, "deploymentChange": -4.035984848484848, "ppTOIChange": -1.1882575757575757, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 1.0166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04483115918065396, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.05563954558367614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05502214842674287, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05411997891916968, "goalProbability": 0.05353581497133003, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05841639478396457, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.241090942116133, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.068946029951964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.745833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01112759643916914, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0542842831418499, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1348.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.260025873221216, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.812235009085402, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.568181818181817, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2937396070916519, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.130891915834462, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.853014627185159, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 1.0166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 72, "fitPct": 4.363063861148731, "index": 104.36306386114873, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5555555555555556, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.363063861148731, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4, "attemptProjection": 0.9923014093751976, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.745833333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.42029051778011495, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0542842831418499, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9461507046875988, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1961507046875988, "baseline": 1.3181818181818181, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 44, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477499", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2449631500852865, "adjustedSOG": 1.241090942116133, "reductionPct": 0.311029926378803, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9461507046875988, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9461507046875988, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9461507046875988, "afterRecentZones": 0.9396970247390096, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9396970247390096, "adjusted": 0.9396970247390096, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.130891915834462, "newChartFactor": 1.118199021084475, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.241090942116133, "adjustedSOG": 1.241090942116133, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.241090942116133, "adjustedSOG": 1.241090942116133 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.05602213078047423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05498605956199905, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05448178939710259, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09801318600787326 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057905948645119915, "modelSOG": 1.241090942116133, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 44, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 163.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03680981595092025, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04483115918065396, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477500", "name": "Bo Horvat", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 3.323529411764706, "currentTOI": 20.62272727272727, "currentFiveTOI": 13.768181818181818, "ppShare": 0.7630683575626354, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 36.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.737878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.42, "currentIXG": 0.49272727272727274, "priorTOI": 20.762990196078434, "priorPPTOI": 3.3963235294117644, "deploymentChange": -0.14026292335116253, "ppTOIChange": 0.3415552584670234, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12704302738722661, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 505.0, "goalExpected": 0.38043841012374974, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38043841012374974, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31643833684203115, "goalProbability": 0.31643833684203115, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.994563479380691, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.923407065037966, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.51114714227807, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.768181818181818, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7630683575626354, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8101390490116134, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0082313293627068, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2467.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.022877153065396, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.730028144620048, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.788480392156863, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7409897548958745, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071185892250445, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.171371556176362, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.266860043509789, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.039224327897752, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": 5.712385205878732, "index": 105.71238520587873, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.995581737849777, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.929307805596466, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.72164948453608, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.16936671575847, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.216494845360824, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.9675994108983796, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": -10.337151125677806, "index": 89.6628488743222, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.724637681159422, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.72463768115942, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.20289855072464, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.391304347826087, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.956521739130437, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.712385205878732, "zonePPFit": -10.337151125677806, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.3997441160756963, "attemptProjection": 3.121130717615144, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9087.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.768181818181818, "projectedAttempts": 3.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.5292211963803896, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 2467.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.8101390490116134, "projectedAttempts": 2.0386637797711105, "onNet": 0.5281140078626112, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9685098146033142, "ppAdjusted": 0.9282912386057423, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.26043741684542, "baseline": 3.323529411764706, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477500", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.2856742148131346, "adjustedSOG": 3.2856742148131346, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.2856742148131346, "adjustedSOG": 3.219960730516872, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 12, "beforeSOG": 3.219960730516872, "adjustedSOG": 2.994563479380691 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 503.0, "goalExpected": 0.3587097822655864, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3587097822655864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3014229386128038, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861031569272105, "modelSOG": 2.994563479380691, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 505.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12673267326732673, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12704302738722661, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 73.31074425291727, "btb": { "id": "8477500", "name": "Bo Horvat", "score": 73.31074425291727, "components": { "Goal model": 96.1439588688946, "SOG model": 97.17223650385604, "Unit attack": 91.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 79.3103448275862, "Shot quality": 97.68637532133675, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.046679815910586, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6698143433604704, "unitPlayers": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 5 } }, { "id": "8477501", "name": "Valeri Nichushkin", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "currentTOI": 16.06851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 12.687037037037037, "ppShare": 0.2742940960762743, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3851851851851853, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.298, "currentIXG": 0.14422222222222222, "priorTOI": 17.725, "priorPPTOI": 1.7583333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.6564814814814817, "ppTOIChange": -0.373148148148148, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020805", "date": "20260123", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020453", "date": "20251207", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020289", "date": "20241118", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13297100736300477, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.22188762538918078, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21922746989752398, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19899462805578425, "goalProbability": 0.1968609925738976, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21336354818866365, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6686917681494111, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.305648810392643, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.687037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2742940960762743, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.540794335843841, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0031899881419952, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 748.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.843406357756772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.056872037914692, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.493287037037037, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3209860703812316, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0986675273179953, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.150792714409223, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.649427410417436, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020805", "date": "20260123", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020453", "date": "20251207", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020289", "date": "20241118", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Valeri Nichushkin", "Adam Fantilli", "Kent Johnson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": 5.026423813640761, "index": 105.02642381364076, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.436720142602496, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.77005347593583, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.098039215686274, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.611408199643495, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.372549019607844, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7112299465240641, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.026423813640761, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5333333333333332, "attemptProjection": 1.3057796200386724, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6851.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.687037037037037, "projectedAttempts": 2.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.517751878684246, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 748.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.540794335843841, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4195564766860027, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4195564766860027, "baseline": 2.2222222222222223, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477501", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7406227749004906, "adjustedSOG": 1.7027467021932767, "reductionPct": 2.1760069587380415, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4195564766860027, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4192379376616857, "afterRecentDefense": 1.356734130948747, "afterRecentZones": 1.4195564766860027, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3567341309487468, "adjusted": 1.3564296888406464, "playerFactor": 0.9997756066563406, "defenseFactor": 0.9557450888576716, "oldChartFactor": 1.150792714409223, "newChartFactor": 1.150792714409223, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9985027956647322, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7889537542135877, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.383333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7027467021932767, "adjustedSOG": 1.6686917681494111, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 136, "beforeSOG": 1.6686917681494111, "adjustedSOG": 1.6686917681494111 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.19209128997907657, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19539541330801982, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17476847031618253, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2722167084579674 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858692871571853, "modelSOG": 1.6686917681494111, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 72, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13448275862068965, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13297100736300477, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.00749318411342, "btb": { "id": "8477501", "name": "Valeri Nichushkin", "score": 52.00749318411342, "components": { "Goal model": 71.97943444730078, "SOG model": 65.29562982005142, "Unit attack": 47.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 46.52956298200514, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 55.226824457593686, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4151410858837794, "unitPlayers": [ "Valeri Nichushkin", "Adam Fantilli", "Kent Johnson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 152 } }, { "id": "8477504", "name": "Josh Morrissey", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 1.896103896103896, "currentTOI": 20.070833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.479166666666668, "ppShare": 0.6069489685124865, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.3291666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5680000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.14200000000000002, "priorTOI": 24.72012987012987, "priorPPTOI": 3.0238095238095237, "deploymentChange": -4.6492965367965375, "ppTOIChange": -0.6946428571428571, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07851684696294792, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 330.0, "goalExpected": 0.18430232812820735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18813464456429355, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16831567575109738, "goalProbability": 0.17149685372283527, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3181177971737892, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.347296602666426, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.192161820480404, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.880143112701253, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.479166666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6069489685124865, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.278903859441319, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 559.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 921.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.12303664921466, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.7308518253400145, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.844155844155843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6625786231547496, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8687282461254113, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8690416401535951, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.192161820480404, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.880143112701253, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": -4.375725129152954, "index": 95.62427487084705, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.69135802469136, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 100 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.209876543209877, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.91358024691358, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.493827160493828, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.4691358024691357, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 46, "fitPct": 13.391807496879537, "index": 113.39180749687954, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 93.04347826086956, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.6086956521739135, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.375725129152954, "zonePPFit": 13.391807496879537, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.014804750458115, "attemptProjection": 2.2813787302914443, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3955.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.479166666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.2500000000000004, "onNet": 0.4596279287851834, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 559.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.278903859441319, "projectedAttempts": 1.7596979567663609, "onNet": 0.4202020202020202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6510113554261117, "ppAdjusted": 0.747080384948668, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6480917403747797, "baseline": 1.896103896103896, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477504", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.347296602666426, "adjustedSOG": 2.347296602666426, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.347296602666426, "adjustedSOG": 2.347296602666426, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.347296602666426, "adjustedSOG": 2.347296602666426 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 330.0, "goalExpected": 0.17682633299170572, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17682633299170572, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1620747081336718, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762244194067602, "modelSOG": 2.347296602666426, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 77, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 330.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08484848484848485, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07851684696294792, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477505", "name": "Alexander Wennberg", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.1625, "currentTOI": 20.001851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 13.753703703703703, "ppShare": 0.7096453430560159, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9648148148148143, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.452, "currentIXG": 0.27244444444444443, "priorTOI": 20.456041666666668, "priorPPTOI": 3.1527083333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.45418981481481424, "ppTOIChange": 0.8121064814814809, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.7 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14137349968418256, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.18823323966342487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18823323966342487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17157853604586853, "goalProbability": 0.17157853604586853, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3314605642777702, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8777433687895515, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.362914525922466, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.753703703703703, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7096453430560159, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.524795874723369, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9812928082271114, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2141.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3017.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.14103606867689, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.471486156082733, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.087708333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6273741920871052, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9098312031494364, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9960756189321935, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.214238088811138, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9062606788008972, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8777433687895515, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.362914525922466, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.7 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.0 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 81, "fitPct": -0.13081270226021502, "index": 99.86918729773978, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.950617283950617, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.39506172839506, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.81481481481482, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.4320987654321, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.950617283950617, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.45679012345679, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": 7.141269627037929, "index": 107.14126962703793, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.975609756097561, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.80487804878049, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.26829268292683, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.975609756097561, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.975609756097561, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.13081270226021502, "zonePPFit": 7.141269627037929, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4772032478544912, "attemptProjection": 1.4199439853428024, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 7427.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.753703703703703, "projectedAttempts": 1.7777777777777775, "onNet": 0.5077730740714167, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2141.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.524795874723369, "projectedAttempts": 0.19755978746698005, "onNet": 0.5389270878097694, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.831080320996487, "ppAdjusted": 0.1730488511577155, "other": 0.4444444444444444 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.448573616598647, "baseline": 1.1625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477505", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3341441699591883, "adjustedSOG": 1.3314605642777702, "reductionPct": 0.20114810241985692, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.831080320996487, "afterPlayerForm": 0.831080320996487, "afterRecentDefense": 0.831080320996487, "afterRecentZones": 0.8309923591591821, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8309923591591821, "adjusted": 0.8309923591591821, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9960756189321935, "newChartFactor": 0.9958580905233514, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2726975324027916, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2768220310728813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1730488511577155, "afterPlayerForm": 0.16911629166494285, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17258618213341553, "afterRecentZones": 0.1730488511577155, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17258618213341553, "adjusted": 0.1686641368593236, "playerFactor": 0.9772748592870544, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.214238088811138, "newChartFactor": 1.214238088811138, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.533333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8689123376623378, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3314605642777702, "adjustedSOG": 1.3314605642777702, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.3314605642777702, "adjustedSOG": 1.3314605642777702 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.21259054768452984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20009293507675635, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19151289362844742, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0167561436599137 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285694140872876, "modelSOG": 1.3314605642777702, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14814814814814814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14137349968418256, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477506", "name": "Ryan Pulock", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.2236842105263157, "currentTOI": 18.97878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 14.831818181818182, "ppShare": 0.005258274048871018, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025757575757575757, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.338, "currentIXG": 0.030727272727272728, "priorTOI": 20.81578947368421, "priorPPTOI": 0.11688596491228069, "deploymentChange": -1.8370015948963285, "ppTOIChange": -0.09112838915470493, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04658915746848995, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.04272571593050062, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04272571593050062, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04182583406271183, "goalProbability": 0.04182583406271183, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9170742346950076, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2065583818571866, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.831818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005258274048871018, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02625551837584006, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8785640078494747, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.098026315789475, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0255014876354019, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1395459418108853, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.465190595754394, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": 4.651531393696175, "index": 104.65153139369617, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 91 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.153846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9230769230769231, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.153846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.651531393696175, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6272727272727272, "attemptProjection": 0.8604484433690821, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9789.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.831818181818182, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.3415336778087704, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02625551837584006, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7438605853209046, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7438605853209046, "baseline": 1.2236842105263157, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477506", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.935790035403069, "adjustedSOG": 0.935790035403069, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.935790035403069, "adjustedSOG": 0.9170742346950076, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 315, "beforeSOG": 0.9170742346950076, "adjustedSOG": 0.9170742346950076 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.03923238655663436, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03923238655663436, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03847276282232611, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05790390610673024, "modelSOG": 0.9170742346950076, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 76, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 196.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04081632653061224, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04658915746848995, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 27.286632783098078, "btb": { "id": "8477506", "name": "Ryan Pulock", "score": 27.286632783098078, "components": { "Goal model": 7.969151670951157, "SOG model": 19.28020565552699, "Unit attack": 18.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 3.5989717223650386, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.95929995929996, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.077555421272094, "unitPlayers": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 375 } }, { "id": "8477507", "name": "Nikita Zadorov", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.3209876543209877, "currentTOI": 19.8, "currentFiveTOI": 16.953030303030303, "ppShare": 0.0235136042996305, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10606060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.738, "currentIXG": 0.06709090909090909, "priorTOI": 20.88127572016461, "priorPPTOI": 0.07139917695473251, "deploymentChange": -1.0812757201646086, "ppTOIChange": 0.034661429105873554, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.036415731877089186, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 224.0, "goalExpected": 0.038358610032842064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038358610032842064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037632235732551575, "goalProbability": 0.037632235732551575, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.053352714763787, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8609348467244615, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.953030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0235136042996305, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10998764746245432, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 70.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2977.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.970682416565858, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.349382716049384, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016283349276754674, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.266321913380737, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikita Zadorov", "Will Borgen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -15.989251114058945, "index": 84.01074888594106, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 69.7887323943662, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.126760563380281, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.971830985915493, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.32394366197183, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.943661971830986, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8450704225352114, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -15.989251114058945, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9272727272727271, "attemptProjection": 0.9316108495906087, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 11189.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.953030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.7272727272727275, "onNet": 0.3994569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 70.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.10998764746245432, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9294417884316679, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9294417884316679, "baseline": 1.3209876543209877, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477507", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0860601347873957, "adjustedSOG": 1.0748497089426396, "reductionPct": 1.0322104168707602, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9294417884316679, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9154575266607694, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9246702146415896, "afterRecentZones": 0.9294417884316679, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9246702146415896, "adjusted": 0.910757745357074, "playerFactor": 0.984954128440367, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 81.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9130150958792329, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0748497089426396, "adjustedSOG": 1.053352714763787, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 294, "beforeSOG": 1.053352714763787, "adjustedSOG": 1.053352714763787 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.048391492437669756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04654536102503185, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047239284560096274, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17605460851920288 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05798697128176897, "modelSOG": 1.053352714763787, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 224.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.026785714285714284, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.036415731877089186, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.402307445125565, "btb": { "id": "8477507", "name": "Nikita Zadorov", "score": 33.402307445125565, "components": { "Goal model": 6.426735218508997, "SOG model": 24.67866323907455, "Unit attack": 95.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 15.681233933161954, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 31.891025641025642, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6253400322194755, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikita Zadorov", "Will Borgen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 328 } }, { "id": "8477511", "name": "Anthony Mantha", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.876543209876543, "currentTOI": 13.142424242424243, "currentFiveTOI": 11.836363636363636, "ppShare": 0.2608695652173913, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2545454545454546, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.789, "currentIXG": 0.16263636363636363, "priorTOI": 15.18724279835391, "priorPPTOI": 2.1627572016460905, "deploymentChange": -2.044818555929668, "ppTOIChange": -0.9082117471006359, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021156", "date": "20260328", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020456", "date": "20251207", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.95 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.18873338025030498, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.24639097751610206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2445805482587367, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21838342932794508, "goalProbability": 0.21696708611261797, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14163432153271038, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3054976135611491, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.0691244239631335, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.695652173913043, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.836363636363636, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2608695652173913, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4415019762845849, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9668487729131949, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 828.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.667769141723168, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.302445057558748, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.442386831275721, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49096420612086666, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.037313432835821, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.30232558139535, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021156", "date": "20260328", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020456", "date": "20251207", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": -9.381288726027961, "index": 90.61871127397204, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.643312101910828, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.898089171974522, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.26751592356688, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.369426751592357, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.802547770700638, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.019108280254778, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": -18.75078444646512, "index": 81.24921555353488, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 67.17948717948717, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.435897435897438, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.102564102564102, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.381288726027961, "zonePPFit": -18.75078444646512, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.027576330411869, "attemptProjection": 0.9108341297566485, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7812.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.836363636363636, "projectedAttempts": 1.7272727272727275, "onNet": 0.5182664258924851, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 828.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4415019762845849, "projectedAttempts": 0.313369994844475, "onNet": 0.5674503077388761, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8067519360415041, "ppAdjusted": 0.1624532940427546, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9692052300842587, "baseline": 1.876543209876543, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477511", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3321404220011726, "adjustedSOG": 1.3321404220011726, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3321404220011726, "adjustedSOG": 1.3054976135611491, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 222, "beforeSOG": 1.3054976135611491, "adjustedSOG": 1.3054976135611491 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.21702037127086823, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22175863154832365, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19508642797441592, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.38048686574786994 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845346470085395, "modelSOG": 1.3054976135611491, "historyGames": 105, "seasonGames": { "2024": 13, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 180.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2222222222222222, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.18873338025030498, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.450011339318856, "btb": { "id": "8477511", "name": "Anthony Mantha", "score": 51.450011339318856, "components": { "Goal model": 78.66323907455013, "SOG model": 43.18766066838046, "Unit attack": 54.76190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 17.24137931034483, "Shot quality": 51.9280205655527, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 54.58214624881292, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.590371481154082, "unitPlayers": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 156 } }, { "id": "8477527", "name": "Ross Johnston", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.532258064516129, "currentTOI": 8.338888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 8.200000000000001, "ppShare": 0.0077628793225123505, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.030555555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.31, "currentIXG": 0.051666666666666666, "priorTOI": 9.743817204301076, "priorPPTOI": 0.03494623655913978, "deploymentChange": -1.404928315412187, "ppTOIChange": -0.004390681003584227, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.1 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11628807101976793, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.061180057295139346, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05806815051144186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05934614706162303, "goalProbability": 0.056414360598403754, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2931786463219274, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5261077663309015, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.658536585365854, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.200000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0077628793225123505, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04208421547871089, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.000585908181893, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1417.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3181576962824346, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.624462365591398, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006673788713609069, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9861132151694187, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0487297056668945, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0341662218988594, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.658536585365854, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.1 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": 1.6243235222298154, "index": 101.62432352222982, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.1428571428571432, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 62.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1428571428571432, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.6243235222298154, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5170831109494298, "attemptProjection": 0.5269320241320699, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2952.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.200000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 1.1666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4870242699400258, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 11.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04208421547871089, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5220075675407498, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5220075675407498, "baseline": 0.532258064516129, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477527", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5261077663309015, "adjustedSOG": 0.5261077663309015, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5261077663309015, "adjustedSOG": 0.5261077663309015, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5261077663309015, "adjustedSOG": 0.5261077663309015 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.05172179565505006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05083714248053071, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.050406989000245934, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08404321623615499 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861770297866348, "modelSOG": 0.5261077663309015, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 62, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 45.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08888888888888889, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11628807101976793, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477903", "name": "Garnet Hathaway", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.5151515151515151, "currentTOI": 9.6, "currentFiveTOI": 7.006944444444444, "ppShare": 0.0015829046299960427, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.701, "currentIXG": 0.058416666666666665, "priorTOI": 10.402525252525253, "priorPPTOI": 0.03257575757575758, "deploymentChange": -0.8025252525252533, "ppTOIChange": -0.021464646464646464, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021272", "date": "20260411", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020066", "date": "20251016", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10946731456936652, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.048162648997300155, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04845099737185748, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04702122657050736, "goalProbability": 0.047295976837013344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.027475026650598117, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.43997287397400037, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8543111992071357, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.006944444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0015829046299960427, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.008643418754222079, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 0.9790227125446014, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.084065660752777, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.137878787878789, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007650395581430064, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9448621553884712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0657888460837264, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0070235462996613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0131826741996233, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021272", "date": "20260411", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020066", "date": "20251016", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 2.1929615361242156, "index": 102.19296153612422, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.421052631578949, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.017543859649122, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.228070175438596, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684211, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.017543859649123, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.1929615361242156, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.33567451543322036, "attemptProjection": 0.4739631717593186, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5045.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.006944444444444, "projectedAttempts": 0.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.4762213926310664, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.008643418754222079, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4048188435962695, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4048188435962695, "baseline": 0.5151515151515151, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477903", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4489519122183677, "adjustedSOG": 0.4489519122183677, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4489519122183677, "adjustedSOG": 0.43997287397400037, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 387, "beforeSOG": 0.43997287397400037, "adjustedSOG": 0.43997287397400037 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.052230086092758074, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.052230086092758074, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05088953540020186, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128638745761219, "modelSOG": 0.43997287397400037, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 66, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09322033898305085, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10946731456936652, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.286347907206636, "btb": { "id": "8477903", "name": "Garnet Hathaway", "score": 28.286347907206636, "components": { "Goal model": 12.596401028277635, "SOG model": 0.7712082262210797, "Unit attack": 9.523809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 11.568123393316196, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 52.96771130104464, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9400820824871499, "unitPlayers": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 369 } }, { "id": "8477932", "name": "Aaron Ekblad", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.3472222222222223, "currentTOI": 21.03666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.866666666666665, "ppShare": 0.3377733098768535, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2399999999999998, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.996, "currentIXG": 0.0996, "priorTOI": 22.477777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 2.0127314814814814, "deploymentChange": -1.441111111111109, "ppTOIChange": 0.22726851851851837, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 26.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.05 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04036426747182837, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 217.0, "goalExpected": 0.06009270569268602, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060452478968657804, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05832276930238453, "goalProbability": 0.0586614986680402, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.033872936565566836, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4887599715423256, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.632286995515695, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.035714285714286, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.866666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3377733098768535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8444043348793286, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1344.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3979.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.641553618689983, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.796434732604945, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.705324074074074, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3937043527083871, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0161652998567425, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0714668127741163, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.020349919344832, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.773857257417803, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 26.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": 0.5388433285580874, "index": 100.53884332855809, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.47126436781609, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.0919540229885065, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.712643678160919, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.67816091954023, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 15.541388130242424, "index": 115.54138813024242, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.5388433285580874, "zonePPFit": 15.541388130242424, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4483913348598154, "attemptProjection": 1.8191217958586017, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8920.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.866666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 3.3, "onNet": 0.3488742110056211, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1344.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8444043348793286, "projectedAttempts": 0.8233947923568431, "onNet": 0.40185185185185185, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1071558224980689, "ppAdjusted": 0.3266007428611398, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6337565653592085, "baseline": 1.3472222222222223, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477932", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.519142828104414, "adjustedSOG": 1.519142828104414, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.519142828104414, "adjustedSOG": 1.4887599715423256, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 169, "beforeSOG": 1.4887599715423256, "adjustedSOG": 1.4887599715423256 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 216.0, "goalExpected": 0.060367985034728844, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060367985034728844, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05858195791459561, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05795472788569594, "modelSOG": 1.4887599715423256, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 217.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03225806451612903, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04036426747182837, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.96287456777173, "btb": { "id": "8477932", "name": "Aaron Ekblad", "score": 48.96287456777173, "components": { "Goal model": 16.195372750642672, "SOG model": 56.81233933161954, "Unit attack": 78.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 96.55172413793103, "Shot quality": 26.99228791773779, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 46.94749694749695, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1231281998784506, "unitPlayers": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 189 } }, { "id": "8477933", "name": "Sam Reinhart", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.0833333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.59375, "currentTOI": 20.343055555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 12.799999999999999, "ppShare": 0.6948951325682627, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 37.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.877777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.426, "currentIXG": 0.5355, "priorTOI": 21.28671875, "priorPPTOI": 3.97578125, "deploymentChange": -0.9436631944444436, "ppTOIChange": 0.9019965277777775, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16636235533445562, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 416.0, "goalExpected": 0.42344006045827365, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4259751837477431, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34520957767195026, "goalProbability": 0.3468674497783139, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.16578721063636448, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.545287722135142, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.421875, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.375854214123008, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.799999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6948951325682627, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7944608331034924, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0039321334952203, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3512.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.74616555873287, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.96914914521517, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.024479166666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7776906149394841, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.069471912057747, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9519208250716971, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1240326858703247, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992362165994823, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.258064516129032, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.09538002980626, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart", "Sandis Vilmanis" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": 2.3157304019248954, "index": 102.3157304019249, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.604166666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.96527777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.513888888888893, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.854166666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.583333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.479166666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": -1.6026391642767663, "index": 98.39736083572323, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.4489795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.136054421768705, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.6281179138322, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.891156462585033, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.487528344671203, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3157304019248954, "zonePPFit": -1.6026391642767663, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.001360337920742, "attemptProjection": 2.849382922027842, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 9216.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.799999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5564127861089188, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7944608331034924, "projectedAttempts": 1.8799435790433021, "onNet": 0.5192937793178228, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.645005983984813, "ppAdjusted": 1.030365645989479, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.925371629974292, "baseline": 2.59375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477933", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.7927229779845755, "adjustedSOG": 2.7927229779845755, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.7927229779845755, "adjustedSOG": 2.7368685184248838, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 25, "beforeSOG": 2.7368685184248838, "adjustedSOG": 2.545287722135142 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 414.0, "goalExpected": 0.43189551411971466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.43189551411971466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3507227865577102, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842975352579103, "modelSOG": 2.545287722135142, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 64, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 73.0, "historyShots": 416.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17548076923076922, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16636235533445562, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.82394084921852, "btb": { "id": "8477933", "name": "Sam Reinhart", "score": 66.82394084921852, "components": { "Goal model": 97.4293059125964, "SOG model": 92.80205655526993, "Unit attack": 77.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.03448275862069, "Shot quality": 98.97172236503856, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 41.900691900691896, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.068357938356347, "unitPlayers": [ "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart", "Sandis Vilmanis" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 41 } }, { "id": "8477935", "name": "Sam Bennett", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.6578947368421053, "currentTOI": 18.415277777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 13.734722222222222, "ppShare": 0.46517609814008704, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2652777777777775, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.972, "currentIXG": 0.331, "priorTOI": 18.492543859649125, "priorPPTOI": 3.1146929824561402, "deploymentChange": -0.07726608187134687, "ppTOIChange": 0.15058479532163727, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11669499264018118, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 473.0, "goalExpected": 0.30089493656295346, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30269638577051927, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.259844468054053, "goalProbability": 0.2611766203879089, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13321523338559182, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.578473418227436, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.280817069471129, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.18757975329647, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.734722222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.46517609814008704, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5400846863970132, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0039321334952203, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2351.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.981357413341101, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.392170668168697, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.551315789473685, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6092557282607064, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1253260916855314, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.14179304270025, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.19360568383659, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.56175298804781, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 211, "fitPct": 4.177536389517712, "index": 104.17753638951771, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.016926201760327, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.3906567366283, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.69329722410291, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.780636425186188, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.843601895734597, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.274881516587678, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": 4.726434756675005, "index": 104.726434756675, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.38461538461539, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.846153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.177536389517712, "zonePPFit": 4.726434756675005, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.6972969205309925, "attemptProjection": 2.5291611794191127, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9889.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.734722222222222, "projectedAttempts": 3.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5171934419171988, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2351.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5400846863970132, "projectedAttempts": 0.7130820472233215, "onNet": 0.5249870256739018, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.847431309192392, "ppAdjusted": 0.432464407449327, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6132290499750526, "baseline": 2.6578947368421053, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477935", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.6310953247218736, "adjustedSOG": 2.6310953247218736, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.6310953247218736, "adjustedSOG": 2.578473418227436, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 33, "beforeSOG": 2.578473418227436, "adjustedSOG": 2.578473418227436 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 470.0, "goalExpected": 0.2771822747560919, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2771822747560919, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24208366449598778, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286623078282382, "modelSOG": 2.578473418227436, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 76, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 473.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11416490486257928, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11669499264018118, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 73.078889497572, "btb": { "id": "8477935", "name": "Sam Bennett", "score": 73.078889497572, "components": { "Goal model": 87.14652956298201, "SOG model": 93.573264781491, "Unit attack": 94.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 96.55172413793103, "Shot quality": 87.91773778920309, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 49.633699633699635, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8302018307885124, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 6 } }, { "id": "8477938", "name": "Haydn Fleury", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.6842105263157895, "currentTOI": 16.22142857142857, "currentFiveTOI": 13.588095238095237, "ppShare": 0.21644378405151066, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0404761904761906, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.304, "currentIXG": 0.04342857142857143, "priorTOI": 13.927192982456141, "priorPPTOI": 0.16052631578947368, "deploymentChange": 2.2942355889724304, "ppTOIChange": 0.8799498746867169, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04554129157037374, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 71.0, "goalExpected": 0.03859740635137687, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0393999869603846, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03786201817504264, "goalProbability": 0.038633901671648645, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07718834966060073, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8475255097175567, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1540213772560013, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.475972540045767, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.588095238095237, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21644378405151066, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1692883515691836, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 437.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2019.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.826379542395693, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.836065573770492, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.73157894736842, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03517460490100432, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8707811223335328, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9450163081089715, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8710952569375492, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9168211188062343, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0657866723440494, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.475972540045767, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": -4.307295922215573, "index": 95.69270407778443, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.03508771929825, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.701754385964914, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -1.8327897297009486, "index": 98.16721027029905, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.307295922215573, "zonePPFit": -1.8327897297009486, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9165893659203858, "attemptProjection": 0.9962149647170842, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5707.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.588095238095237, "projectedAttempts": 2.1428571428571423, "onNet": 0.38394706943794693, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 437.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1692883515691836, "projectedAttempts": 0.642172092394975, "onNet": 0.4279835390946502, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6819645178619532, "ppAdjusted": 0.2744376474567818, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9564021653187349, "baseline": 0.6842105263157895, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 38, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477938", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8475255097175567, "adjustedSOG": 0.8475255097175567, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8475255097175567, "adjustedSOG": 0.8475255097175567, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8475255097175567, "adjustedSOG": 0.8475255097175567 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 70.0, "goalExpected": 0.038688932630929575, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038688932630929575, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037950075055114635, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787560858533909, "modelSOG": 0.8475255097175567, "historyGames": 84, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 38, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 71.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.028169014084507043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04554129157037374, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477940", "name": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.5365853658536586, "currentTOI": 16.27948717948718, "currentFiveTOI": 11.653846153846153, "ppShare": 0.645367412140575, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.6256410256410256, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.8609999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.22007692307692306, "priorTOI": 16.59573170731707, "priorPPTOI": 2.6497967479674798, "deploymentChange": -0.3162445278298911, "ppTOIChange": 0.9758442776735459, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1316119013093693, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 408.0, "goalExpected": 0.29069929099287134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2774860415205491, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2522595034837795, "goalProbability": 0.24231385932441388, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9945644159365635, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.208761427354114, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.544554455445544, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.456859971711458, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.653846153846153, "Current_PP_Share": 0.645367412140575, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.3271930722809318, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.042724438158192, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2828.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.149882903981265, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.217074480325229, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.018292682926829, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.599694563787409, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0672661668884131, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0461506926604955, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.057668930433324, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9121390447516085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.802700675168792, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020812", "date": "20250130", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Logan Stankoven", "Jackson Blake" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 228, "fitPct": 2.242205562947106, "index": 102.2422055629471, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.968960863697703, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.404858299595142, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.582995951417004, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.723346828609984, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.897435897435896, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.422402159244264, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 1.5383564220165198, "index": 101.53835642201652, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 39.46666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.066666666666665, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.133333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.466666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.266666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.242205562947106, "zonePPFit": 1.5383564220165198, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1411887319522864, "attemptProjection": 1.9156557798943012, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9090.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.653846153846153, "projectedAttempts": 2.0769230769230766, "onNet": 0.5033816024231359, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2828.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.3271930722809318, "projectedAttempts": 1.129457337125069, "onNet": 0.5617403986387944, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1382196316602406, "ppAdjusted": 0.6594333934938222, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.028422255923294, "baseline": 2.5365853658536586, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477940", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2316874998954397, "adjustedSOG": 2.208761427354114, "reductionPct": 1.0272976186137206, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1382196316602406, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1382196316602406, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1382196316602406, "afterRecentZones": 1.1375204952112656, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1375204952112656, "adjusted": 1.1375204952112656, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0672661668884131, "newChartFactor": 1.0660611804518438, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0469033428349312, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0196615144036563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6594333934938222, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6462217488506533, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6377015996356232, "afterRecentZones": 0.6562646337627538, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.634637267180973, "adjusted": 0.6219224090405877, "playerFactor": 0.9799651567944251, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1.0461506926604955, "newChartFactor": 1.0362840034583742, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8600973236009732, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.208761427354114, "adjustedSOG": 2.208761427354114, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 61, "beforeSOG": 2.208761427354114, "adjustedSOG": 2.208761427354114 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 405.0, "goalExpected": 0.2758185818760518, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26989868782498777, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24104939433244824, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4506232224088136 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285884586515961, "modelSOG": 2.208761427354114, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 408.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1323529411764706, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1316119013093693, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 72.52998404411555, "btb": { "id": "8477940", "name": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "score": 72.52998404411555, "components": { "Goal model": 85.60411311053984, "SOG model": 84.5758354755784, "Unit attack": 96.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.41379310344827, "Shot quality": 70.69408740359897, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 54.02930402930403, "Goalie H2H": 44.40680910196283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.142563322930972, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Logan Stankoven", "Jackson Blake" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 8 } }, { "id": "8477948", "name": "Travis Sanheim", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.9230769230769231, "priorSOG": 1.1728395061728396, "currentTOI": 25.826923076923077, "currentFiveTOI": 20.226923076923075, "ppShare": 0.12963436461263103, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6499999999999999, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.188, "currentIXG": 0.16830769230769232, "priorTOI": 24.222633744855965, "priorPPTOI": 1.0211934156378601, "deploymentChange": 1.6042893320671112, "ppTOIChange": -0.37119341563786024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.071786120817099, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.11993194718546069, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11860113755283316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11301920379705829, "goalProbability": 0.11183801541540672, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11811883816515711, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6706843303461199, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.791785510553337, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.226923076923075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12963436461263103, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6324014886786555, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3076923076923077, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 507.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8766413268832065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.626838605682047, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.05514403292181, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23982661267700917, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1050745683494865, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.525957698565301, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Oliver Bonk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": 3.502485611649547, "index": 103.50248561164955, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.32864419112297, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0169779286927, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.651709919961194, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.92117390249818, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.479990298326461, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6015037593984963, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.502485611649547, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1653846153846152, "attemptProjection": 1.845283765950378, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 15777.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.226923076923075, "projectedAttempts": 3.4615384615384617, "onNet": 0.4311216790891216, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 507.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6324014886786555, "projectedAttempts": 0.07484041286137935, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6819097819993012, "ppAdjusted": 0.01573210097588769, "other": 0.3076923076923077 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0053341906674964, "baseline": 1.1728395061728396, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477948", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6723363168696337, "adjustedSOG": 1.6706843303461199, "reductionPct": 0.09878315186063746, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6819097819993012, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6819097819993012, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6819097819993014, "afterRecentZones": 1.6807639553259488, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6807639553259488, "adjusted": 1.6807639553259488, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1050745683494865, "newChartFactor": 1.103711345913548, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 102.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2531600324939074, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.01573210097588769, "afterPlayerForm": 0.014330960732722692, "afterRecentDefense": 0.015505582739448926, "afterRecentZones": 0.01573210097588769, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.015505582739448926, "adjusted": 0.014124616776716755, "playerFactor": 0.9109375, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6706843303461199, "adjustedSOG": 1.6706843303461199, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 135, "beforeSOG": 1.6706843303461199, "adjustedSOG": 1.6706843303461199 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.11803858091001619, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11585557975231751, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11133823342642273, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19420686630595707 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057712173733385365, "modelSOG": 1.6706843303461199, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 259.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07722007722007722, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.071786120817099, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.16919746208854, "btb": { "id": "8477948", "name": "Travis Sanheim", "score": 38.16919746208854, "components": { "Goal model": 39.33161953727507, "SOG model": 65.55269922879178, "Unit attack": 45.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 53.2133676092545, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 32.46187363834423, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4936044943421902, "unitPlayers": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Oliver Bonk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 285 } }, { "id": "8477950", "name": "Tony DeAngelo", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.9473684210526316, "currentTOI": 16.41969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 14.743939393939394, "ppShare": 0.20414475719146305, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.543, "currentIXG": 0.049363636363636366, "priorTOI": 19.140570175438597, "priorPPTOI": 1.4910087719298246, "deploymentChange": -2.7208732057416256, "ppTOIChange": -0.4910087719298246, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04699736906510034, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 236.0, "goalExpected": 0.06721841631303321, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06721841631303321, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06500903824562554, "goalProbability": 0.06500903824562554, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4302591325893768, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.0694687082519785, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.454545454545454, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.743939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20414475719146305, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0193318898855552, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 660.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.950877923700686, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.412854831592881, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.8484649122807, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3252994642271999, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1570394956069996, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.876423022276053, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.454944313196085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.282722513089006, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 177, "fitPct": 5.234649853566651, "index": 105.23464985356665, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.93079096045197, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 107 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.509887005649718, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.389830508474576, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.985875706214689, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.05367231638418, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1299435028248588, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": -4.119232590798234, "index": 95.88076740920177, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 89.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.234649853566651, "zonePPFit": -4.119232590798234, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2287665551275202, "attemptProjection": 1.0395691983988233, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 9731.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.743939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 2.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.41833188531711557, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 660.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0193318898855552, "projectedAttempts": 0.18533307088828277, "onNet": 0.4252136752136752, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0614298125067951, "ppAdjusted": 0.07273806425637658, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1341678767631718, "baseline": 1.9473684210526316, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477950", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4594480944789558, "adjustedSOG": 1.4594480944789558, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4594480944789558, "adjustedSOG": 1.4302591325893768, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 181, "beforeSOG": 1.4302591325893768, "adjustedSOG": 1.4302591325893768 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 236.0, "goalExpected": 0.06213771418391494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06213771418391494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06024653950151845, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791116005873715, "modelSOG": 1.4302591325893768, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 76, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 236.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0423728813559322, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04699736906510034, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.217871556402606, "btb": { "id": "8477950", "name": "Tony DeAngelo", "score": 37.217871556402606, "components": { "Goal model": 20.051413881748072, "SOG model": 53.72750642673522, "Unit attack": 70.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 10.282776349614396, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.2962962962963, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8911364064037945, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 295 } }, { "id": "8477951", "name": "Nick Schmaltz", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 17.966666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 12.625, "ppShare": 0.7337893296853625, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.725, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.9330000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.32775000000000004, "priorTOI": 19.723373983739837, "priorPPTOI": 3.0211382113821137, "deploymentChange": -1.7567073170731717, "ppTOIChange": 0.7038617886178864, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13903695402393002, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.338790820178254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3191510538504096, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2873684983702622, "goalProbability": 0.2732342397519143, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.4134258618347884, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.4366962190493893, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.128712871287129, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.765100671140939, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7337893296853625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.866309323371566, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0307233185554783, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2682.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.78802313712147, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.867599569429494, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.336585365853658, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6343895110625513, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9334651648524706, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.032568503439897, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.990321554084954, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0129287061813712, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.304498269896193, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.88702559576346, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Clayton Keller", "Nick Schmaltz", "Lawson Crouse" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 195, "fitPct": -2.217827838250983, "index": 97.78217216174902, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.60758082497213, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.684503901895205, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.537346711259755, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.51839464882943, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.62653288740245, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": 1.0856167813299038, "index": 101.0856167813299, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.2307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.07692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.384615384615394, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.8461538461538463, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.217827838250983, "zonePPFit": 1.0856167813299038, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.699224002420878, "attemptProjection": 2.073503231808794, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9090.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.625, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5578592678040193, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 2682.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.866309323371566, "projectedAttempts": 1.1244300045599633, "onNet": 0.5876858502556827, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.338870194574418, "ppAdjusted": 0.7974934225404178, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.386363617114836, "baseline": 2.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477951", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4366962190493893, "adjustedSOG": 2.4366962190493893, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4366962190493893, "adjustedSOG": 2.4366962190493893, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 40, "beforeSOG": 2.4366962190493893, "adjustedSOG": 2.4366962190493893 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 423.0, "goalExpected": 0.395855059002342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.395855059002342, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3268957507311061, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855363908539333, "modelSOG": 2.4366962190493893, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 424.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14150943396226415, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13903695402393002, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.3657216625389, "btb": { "id": "8477951", "name": "Nick Schmaltz", "score": 67.3657216625389, "components": { "Goal model": 93.31619537275064, "SOG model": 89.97429305912597, "Unit attack": 51.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.37931034482759, "Shot quality": 87.66066838046272, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 53.34338863750629, "Goalie H2H": 48.45880814496544 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4646084279659064, "unitPlayers": [ "Clayton Keller", "Nick Schmaltz", "Lawson Crouse" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 36 } }, { "id": "8477956", "name": "David Pastrnak", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.5, "priorSOG": 3.3896103896103895, "currentTOI": 19.691666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 15.744444444444445, "ppShare": 0.7326701896176562, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 42.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.273611111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.878, "currentIXG": 0.32316666666666666, "priorTOI": 20.655627705627705, "priorPPTOI": 3.4474025974025975, "deploymentChange": -0.9639610389610382, "ppTOIChange": -0.17379148629148666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12723140375458003, "goalHistoryGoals": 79.0, "goalHistoryShots": 622.0, "goalExpected": 0.3629499303046417, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3629499303046417, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30437873782816105, "goalProbability": 0.30437873782816105, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.852675672782368, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.797459421312633, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.164191769198133, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.744444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7326701896176562, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4271509163392126, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0477772884824241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2357.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.31826893017819, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.561876059521568, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.924891774891774, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7862171944459228, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.052885837782863, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.508757297748124, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.287449392712551, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "JJ Peterka", "Pavel Zacha", "David Pastrnak" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 45, "priorAttempts": 251, "fitPct": -8.774179160995814, "index": 91.22582083900419, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.590969455511292, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.07038512616202, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.605577689243024, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.09827357237716, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.577689243027887, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.057104913678619, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 91, "fitPct": -13.844186963094103, "index": 86.1558130369059, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.18681318681319, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.758241758241757, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.230769230769232, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.670329670329668, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.43956043956043955, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.774179160995814, "zonePPFit": -13.844186963094103, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.0199334664403055, "attemptProjection": 3.059755823875207, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 66.0, "sog": 34.0, "seconds": 11336.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.744444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 5.500000000000001, "onNet": 0.5090474564697849, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2357.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4271509163392126, "projectedAttempts": 1.1341441301419541, "onNet": 0.49933955716748385, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.4012569462105438, "ppAdjusted": 0.4719210322805458, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.039844645157756, "baseline": 3.3896103896103895, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477956", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.179750942938809, "adjustedSOG": 3.1299930576940618, "reductionPct": 1.5648359301612458, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.4012569462105438, "afterPlayerForm": 2.3383381722334327, "afterRecentDefense": 2.3889943054206917, "afterRecentZones": 2.4012569462105438, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.3889943054206917, "adjusted": 2.326396842465892, "playerFactor": 0.9737975671131721, "defenseFactor": 0.9491264822134388, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 23.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8453721896906146, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7647995270342901, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4719210322805458, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46385132728395173, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4719210322805458, "afterRecentZones": 0.4719210322805458, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4719210322805458, "adjusted": 0.46385132728395173, "playerFactor": 0.9829003065245949, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.133333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9005348955680081, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.1299930576940618, "adjustedSOG": 3.0673931965401806, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 17, "beforeSOG": 3.0673931965401806, "adjustedSOG": 2.852675672782368 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 76.0, "goalHistoryShots": 614.0, "goalExpected": 0.42850062994069305, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4121533665392269, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34851481984297344, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0737525301995898 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286107351080677, "modelSOG": 2.852675672782368, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 79.0, "historyShots": 622.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1270096463022508, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12723140375458003, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.24683304499477, "btb": { "id": "8477956", "name": "David Pastrnak", "score": 67.24683304499477, "components": { "Goal model": 95.62982005141389, "SOG model": 95.88688946015424, "Unit attack": 89.28571428571429, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.586206896551722, "Shot quality": 87.14652956298201, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.83119658119658, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.552140526598164, "unitPlayers": [ "JJ Peterka", "Pavel Zacha", "David Pastrnak" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 37 } }, { "id": "8477960", "name": "Adrian Kempe", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.5, "priorSOG": 2.7901234567901234, "currentTOI": 20.48, "currentFiveTOI": 15.569999999999999, "ppShare": 0.676, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 35.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.816666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.738, "currentIXG": 0.47380000000000005, "priorTOI": 19.305761316872427, "priorPPTOI": 2.857201646090535, "deploymentChange": 1.174238683127573, "ppTOIChange": -0.0405349794238683, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1452364523815189, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 498.0, "goalExpected": 0.45412699892357367, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4599449141233364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.36499791645625324, "goalProbability": 0.36868157872221974, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3683662265966503, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.126811427000682, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.019267822736031, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.650887573964496, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.569999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.676, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.886827272727272, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1690.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.900987623452932, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.85164914302175, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.812962962962962, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6703847594932297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9882576812401374, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2473897476735243, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0182818319895985, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0378245244574822, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.476618148033447, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artemi Panarin", "Alex Laferriere", "Adrian Kempe" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 38, "priorAttempts": 230, "fitPct": 8.24632492245081, "index": 108.24632492245081, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.10983981693364, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.778032036613272, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.048054919908466, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.169336384439358, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.606407322654462, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.2883295194508015, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 64, "fitPct": 0.6093943996532829, "index": 100.60939439965328, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.488636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.193181818181817, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.40909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.454545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.24632492245081, "zonePPFit": 0.6093943996532829, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.9218378949424384, "attemptProjection": 3.793925471282689, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 26.0, "seconds": 9342.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.569999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 4.299999999999999, "onNet": 0.5489194080698392, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1690.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.886827272727272, "projectedAttempts": 1.5373636363636363, "onNet": 0.46859064771617664, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.8301228009453476, "ppAdjusted": 0.6277588821672162, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.8578816831125637, "baseline": 2.7901234567901234, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477960", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.4307783925835875, "adjustedSOG": 3.4307783925835875, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.4307783925835875, "adjustedSOG": 3.3621628247319157, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 9, "beforeSOG": 3.3621628247319157, "adjustedSOG": 3.126811427000682 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 491.0, "goalExpected": 0.4010009411844466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4010009411844466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.33035056922599093, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851398524148291, "modelSOG": 3.126811427000682, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 498.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14859437751004015, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1452364523815189, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.23236082292328, "btb": { "id": "8477960", "name": "Adrian Kempe", "score": 66.23236082292328, "components": { "Goal model": 98.7146529562982, "SOG model": 97.94344473007712, "Unit attack": 84.52380952380952, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 82.75862068965517, "Shot quality": 96.40102827763496, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 33.60042735042735, "Goalie H2H": 48.6549598356062 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3111267811696563, "unitPlayers": [ "Artemi Panarin", "Alex Laferriere", "Adrian Kempe" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 44 } }, { "id": "8477964", "name": "Ivan Barbashev", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "priorSOG": 1.6219512195121952, "currentTOI": 16.093589743589742, "currentFiveTOI": 14.92051282051282, "ppShare": 0.16924265842349304, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8423076923076922, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.23 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.062, "currentIXG": 0.1586153846153846, "priorTOI": 16.241869918699187, "priorPPTOI": 0.8400406504065041, "deploymentChange": -0.1482801751094449, "ppTOIChange": 0.002267041901188094, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16624509939375054, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 260.0, "goalExpected": 0.22779395278384945, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22890188469888437, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20371168407602752, "goalProbability": 0.20459342876807038, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08817446920428573, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3702295803879356, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.021309503351091, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.438356164383563, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.92051282051282, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16924265842349304, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8520174473903221, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.00414987214829, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 657.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.6724486885179095, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.8393418824098715, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.96321138211382, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.18396360787665134, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9863588161573316, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8459177457658802, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9206727401994648, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9217041698725136, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.8613275163602365, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.58957654723127, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ivan Barbashev", "Jack Eichel", "Mark Stone" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": -5.136075141137326, "index": 94.86392485886267, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.06741573033708, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.93820224719101, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.831460674157306, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.269662921348313, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.6966292134831464, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.196629213483146, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": -2.644241993351173, "index": 97.35575800664883, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769234, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.46153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.136075141137326, "zonePPFit": -2.644241993351173, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0651528860448753, "attemptProjection": 1.368895045304841, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 11638.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.92051282051282, "projectedAttempts": 2.8461538461538463, "onNet": 0.43402739524806283, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 657.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8520174473903221, "projectedAttempts": 0.3112392501882455, "onNet": 0.5754604872251932, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0238301693905325, "ppAdjusted": 0.19319379628432554, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.217023965674858, "baseline": 1.6219512195121952, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477964", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.378994867209793, "adjustedSOG": 1.3702295803879356, "reductionPct": 0.6356286763846031, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0238301693905325, "afterPlayerForm": 1.00922135802077, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0238301693905325, "afterRecentZones": 1.0238301693905325, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0238301693905325, "adjusted": 1.00922135802077, "playerFactor": 0.9857312161659988, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8459177457658802, "newChartFactor": 0.8385391309264985, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9141576183829705, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0539918860508322, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.19319379628432554, "afterPlayerForm": 0.19319379628432554, "afterRecentDefense": 0.19319379628432554, "afterRecentZones": 0.19319379628432554, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.19319379628432554, "adjusted": 0.19319379628432554, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9206727401994648, "newChartFactor": 0.9206727401994648, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9098837209302326, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3702295803879356, "adjustedSOG": 1.3702295803879356, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 197, "beforeSOG": 1.3702295803879356, "adjustedSOG": 1.3702295803879356 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 260.0, "goalExpected": 0.24544007506683105, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2480591192551127, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2176398347295706, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2046354927275701 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848235781750197, "modelSOG": 1.3702295803879356, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 47.0, "historyShots": 260.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18076923076923077, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16624509939375054, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.639909299588645, "btb": { "id": "8477964", "name": "Ivan Barbashev", "score": 54.639909299588645, "components": { "Goal model": 73.26478149100257, "SOG model": 49.61439588688946, "Unit attack": 75.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 20.689655172413794, "Shot quality": 48.84318766066838, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 58.18070818070818, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0537795518379873, "unitPlayers": [ "Ivan Barbashev", "Jack Eichel", "Mark Stone" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 125 } }, { "id": "8477987", "name": "Ryan Donato", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.5061728395061729, "currentTOI": 11.61969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 10.233333333333333, "ppShare": 0.22564102564102564, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.081, "currentIXG": 0.18918181818181817, "priorTOI": 14.729629629629628, "priorPPTOI": 1.3804526748971193, "deploymentChange": -3.1099326599326584, "ppTOIChange": -0.31378600823045266, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 9.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14593241056198591, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 317.0, "goalExpected": 0.2067470367610972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2067470367610972, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18677465991355657, "goalProbability": 0.18677465991355657, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4167314578366388, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.863192182410423, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.113636363636363, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.233333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22564102564102564, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0135726495726496, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9811709781784709, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 704.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.107522596483397, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.878223282158295, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.90761316872428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.31899011030810187, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9465399610136453, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9594817950738452, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9081878609024999, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.889088827089808, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.0606060606060606, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 9.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -1.3506068308718255, "index": 98.64939316912817, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.19406150583245, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.53234358430541, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.76776246023329, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.044538706256628, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.169671261930011, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.2916224814422055, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 8.788401530176642, "index": 108.78840153017664, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3506068308718255, "zonePPFit": 8.788401530176642, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0984385893407282, "attemptProjection": 1.615769150773171, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6754.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.233333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.9090909090909087, "onNet": 0.43962810915237865, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 704.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0135726495726496, "projectedAttempts": 0.4319201631701632, "onNet": 0.4810616745736633, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1032851036060296, "ppAdjusted": 0.16290967554182922, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3571038700569495, "baseline": 1.5061728395061729, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477987", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4167314578366388, "adjustedSOG": 1.4167314578366388, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4167314578366388, "adjustedSOG": 1.4167314578366388, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 185, "beforeSOG": 1.4167314578366388, "adjustedSOG": 1.4167314578366388 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.19558685464676515, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20201865753228526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1776480846228344, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.527223226771123 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853815204348132, "modelSOG": 1.4167314578366388, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 317.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15141955835962145, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14593241056198591, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.43515412393947, "btb": { "id": "8477987", "name": "Ryan Donato", "score": 51.43515412393947, "components": { "Goal model": 66.83804627249357, "SOG model": 52.69922879177378, "Unit attack": 4.761904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 61.18251928020565, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.92094017094017, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.897422060622221, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 157 } }, { "id": "8477989", "name": "Christian Dvorak", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.0769230769230769, "priorSOG": 1.8875, "currentTOI": 17.707692307692305, "currentFiveTOI": 13.470512820512822, "ppShare": 0.26591664535924314, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.47, "currentIXG": 0.11307692307692307, "priorTOI": 18.459375, "priorPPTOI": 1.5472916666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.7516826923076962, "ppTOIChange": -0.21395833333333347, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020551", "date": "20241223", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020355", "date": "20241127", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12157855015366635, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 269.0, "goalExpected": 0.1657514496909051, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1639122097632024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15274320604101096, "goalProbability": 0.15118346358593587, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15597424550750916, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3633280663522263, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.796802131912059, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.470512820512822, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26591664535924314, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2972338229305753, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 0.9877898672235583, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1040.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.70852722368772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663794264171267, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.057916666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36338044640470457, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9554449544018597, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9731919194142392, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9298313090689961, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.967816598699438, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020551", "date": "20241223", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020355", "date": "20241127", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020275", "date": "20241116", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Noel Acciari" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": -0.8936026861920254, "index": 99.10639731380797, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.752260397830018, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.361663652802893, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.56419529837252, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.95298372513562, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.376130198915009, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.992766726943942, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8936026861920254, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0013567943819959, "attemptProjection": 1.151710870816471, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 10507.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.470512820512822, "projectedAttempts": 2.076923076923077, "onNet": 0.5131561414118636, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1040.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2972338229305753, "projectedAttempts": 0.1496808257227587, "onNet": 0.500465549348231, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.038493001843439, "ppAdjusted": 0.03804083075579429, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0765338325992335, "baseline": 1.8875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477989", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.40092029955954, "adjustedSOG": 1.3633280663522263, "reductionPct": 2.6833955664096742, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.038493001843439, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9947400757421564, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0232469102153516, "afterRecentZones": 1.038493001843439, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0232469102153516, "adjusted": 0.9801363198054535, "playerFactor": 0.9578688291364348, "defenseFactor": 0.9853190232374951, "oldChartFactor": 0.9731919194142392, "newChartFactor": 0.9731919194142392, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7394739157209466, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9305477920626049, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.03804083075579429, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03423674768021486, "afterRecentDefense": 0.03749310086843373, "afterRecentZones": 0.03804083075579429, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.03749310086843373, "adjusted": 0.03374379078159036, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3633280663522263, "adjustedSOG": 1.3633280663522263, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 200, "beforeSOG": 1.3633280663522263, "adjustedSOG": 1.3633280663522263 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 268.0, "goalExpected": 0.1364980691473813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.133973678895693, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12759199525072362, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.220508033333483 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862485006702887, "modelSOG": 1.3633280663522263, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 269.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11895910780669144, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12157855015366635, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.59833851159383, "btb": { "id": "8477989", "name": "Christian Dvorak", "score": 42.59833851159383, "components": { "Goal model": 56.55526992287918, "SOG model": 48.84318766066838, "Unit attack": 27.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.020565552699228, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 40.01068376068376, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.192481611765573, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Noel Acciari" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 238 } }, { "id": "8477998", "name": "Warren Foegele", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.5441176470588236, "currentTOI": 12.14861111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 11.305555555555555, "ppShare": 0.01615334912771915, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.351, "currentIXG": 0.11258333333333333, "priorTOI": 13.774754901960783, "priorPPTOI": 0.5887254901960784, "deploymentChange": -1.6261437908496728, "ppTOIChange": -0.48455882352941176, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020916", "date": "20260225", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020738", "date": "20260114", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020007", "date": "20251008", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021018", "date": "20250309", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020917", "date": "20250224", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1219727542593581, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 317.0, "goalExpected": 0.13963385698088765, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.142407558381662, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13032339687169095, "goalProbability": 0.13273227778145436, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24088809097634056, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1447954736184418, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3071253071253075, "Current_PP_SOG60": 48.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.305555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01615334912771915, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07696570381660842, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 75.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.8054328395010995, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.491257285595337, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.928186274509804, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11915657058673497, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7941664585344126, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9132914273145744, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.8562555456965395, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 67.9245283018868, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020916", "date": "20260225", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020738", "date": "20260114", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020007", "date": "20251008", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021018", "date": "20250309", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020917", "date": "20250224", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020160", "date": "20241030", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020107", "date": "20241022", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Warren Foegele", "Dylan Cozens", "Drake Batherson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": -6.861118048852916, "index": 93.13888195114708, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.111690245718542, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.375279225614296, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.087862993298586, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.71258376768429, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.91734921816828, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.7952345495160085, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 14.123277552924193, "index": 114.1232775529242, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.861118048852916, "zonePPFit": 14.123277552924193, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.984099874825854, "attemptProjection": 0.997251575418638, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8140.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.305555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.0833333333333335, "onNet": 0.49013844515441957, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 75.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07696570381660842, "projectedAttempts": 0.06157256305328673, "onNet": 0.5700954178462829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9378719399128168, "ppAdjusted": 0.05280378520942919, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.990675725122246, "baseline": 1.5441176470588236, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477998", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.212052493896877, "adjustedSOG": 1.1681586465494305, "reductionPct": 3.621447715215964, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9378719399128168, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9378719399128168, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8652958941730406, "afterRecentZones": 0.9378719399128168, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8652958941730406, "adjusted": 0.8652958941730406, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.914945757630518, "oldChartFactor": 0.7941664585344126, "newChartFactor": 0.7941664585344126, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.477235121430478, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6086721404650821, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05280378520942919, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05280378520942919, "afterRecentDefense": 0.052223418703461255, "afterRecentZones": 0.05280378520942919, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.052223418703461255, "adjusted": 0.052223418703461255, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2096774193548385, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1681586465494305, "adjustedSOG": 1.1447954736184418, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 259, "beforeSOG": 1.1447954736184418, "adjustedSOG": 1.1447954736184418 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.12377868057870899, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11975429631568833, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11642462836550652, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.356301147567617 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862638526152326, "modelSOG": 1.1447954736184418, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 317.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11987381703470032, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1219727542593581, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.56104714732001, "btb": { "id": "8477998", "name": "Warren Foegele", "score": 46.56104714732001, "components": { "Goal model": 47.55784061696658, "SOG model": 33.67609254498715, "Unit attack": 52.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 28.53470437017995, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 68.59393329981565, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4704499527093544, "unitPlayers": [ "Warren Foegele", "Dylan Cozens", "Drake Batherson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 205 } }, { "id": "8478020", "name": "Michael Amadio", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.1851851851851851, "currentTOI": 15.615277777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 13.0, "ppShare": 0.005384449709239716, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.034722222222222224, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.206, "currentIXG": 0.26716666666666666, "priorTOI": 16.12037037037037, "priorPPTOI": 0.08024691358024691, "deploymentChange": -0.5050925925925931, "ppTOIChange": -0.045524691358024685, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14236947830895552, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.1530646039971074, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15610509514800255, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14192571500793252, "goalProbability": 0.14453072002406261, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2605005016130091, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0751223212670795, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8461538461538463, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.0, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005384449709239716, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.025655234605536138, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.0123300586459183, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.610005611430052, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.46153846153846, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.300617283950617, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016241775125462377, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9974150351724723, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7863205465957327, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.227005870841487, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ridly Greig", "Shane Pinto", "Michael Amadio" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": -7.12264844680891, "index": 92.87735155319109, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.822695035460994, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.22695035460993, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.737588652482266, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.836879432624114, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.255319148936171, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.1205673758865253, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.12264844680891, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9583333333333334, "attemptProjection": 1.1676586012216648, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 9360.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.0, "projectedAttempts": 2.0833333333333335, "onNet": 0.4673267326732673, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.025655234605536138, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.812995967277499, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0629959672774991, "baseline": 1.1851851851851851, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478020", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1118716544405736, "adjustedSOG": 1.097063593129673, "reductionPct": 1.3318139060169654, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.812995967277499, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7982528805265999, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8028754231847124, "afterRecentZones": 0.812995967277499, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8028754231847124, "adjusted": 0.7883158650926649, "playerFactor": 0.9818657320032353, "defenseFactor": 0.9779426813429017, "oldChartFactor": 0.7863205465957327, "newChartFactor": 0.7863205465957327, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.63333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8825563122053431, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8985160168770259, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.097063593129673, "adjustedSOG": 1.0751223212670795, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 283, "beforeSOG": 1.0751223212670795, "adjustedSOG": 1.0751223212670795 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 191.0, "goalExpected": 0.13790100668592178, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13341746688272738, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12881507103943313, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.39147617420647735 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856626622832917, "modelSOG": 1.0751223212670795, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14948453608247422, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14236947830895552, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.89667818966511, "btb": { "id": "8478020", "name": "Michael Amadio", "score": 48.89667818966511, "components": { "Goal model": 52.44215938303342, "SOG model": 27.506426735218508, "Unit attack": 61.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 79.69151670951157, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 39.25518925518925, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.691548829478119, "unitPlayers": [ "Ridly Greig", "Shane Pinto", "Michael Amadio" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 191 } }, { "id": "8478043", "name": "Sam Lafferty", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.3103448275862069, "currentTOI": 10.05, "currentFiveTOI": 9.336666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.271, "currentIXG": 0.054200000000000005, "priorTOI": 8.59712643678161, "priorPPTOI": 0.010344827586206896, "deploymentChange": 1.4528735632183913, "ppTOIChange": -0.010344827586206896, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021186", "date": "20260331", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020776", "date": "20260119", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10958851579542613, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.06003177875385807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06039118726202443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05826539404352245, "goalProbability": 0.05860380065658713, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03384066130646818, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5477926068998153, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.141021063905748, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.336666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0039321334952203, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1789.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.1809369951534734, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.537931034482758, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002390446085439592, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0309550261312352, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0835508010716521, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.141021063905748, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021186", "date": "20260331", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020776", "date": "20260119", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 1.0318342043745048, "index": 101.0318342043745, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.85714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.57142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.0318342043745048, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8668406408573216, "attemptProjection": 0.582606415217584, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2801.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.336666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5366004161584272, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7247235280374529, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7247235280374529, "baseline": 0.3103448275862069, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478043", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5589720478569544, "adjustedSOG": 0.5589720478569544, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5589720478569544, "adjustedSOG": 0.5477926068998153, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5477926068998153, "adjustedSOG": 0.5477926068998153 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.06188948252930244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06188948252930244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06001323398938243, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286292807465446, "modelSOG": 0.5477926068998153, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 29, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 63.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07936507936507936, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10958851579542613, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478046", "name": "Danton Heinen", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 0.9565217391304348, "currentTOI": 10.828571428571427, "currentFiveTOI": 9.683333333333334, "ppShare": 0.006907545164718385, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 46, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.030952380952380953, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.044, "currentIXG": 0.14914285714285716, "priorTOI": 11.339855072463768, "priorPPTOI": 0.1213768115942029, "deploymentChange": -0.5112836438923409, "ppTOIChange": -0.09042443064182194, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020938", "date": "20250227", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020922", "date": "20250225", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020881", "date": "20250208", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12061395731521346, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 131.0, "goalExpected": 0.11351188835511222, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11215102258963043, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10730641631022804, "goalProbability": 0.10609075318356649, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12156631266615481, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.941117353926622, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.311040078682075, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006907545164718385, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03880180658873539, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0031899881419952, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.179336188436831, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.746268656716419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.828985507246376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.028021862561281898, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0986675273179953, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1082869366631305, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.311040078682075, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 5, "sogPerGame": 1.4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020938", "date": "20250227", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020922", "date": "20250225", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020881", "date": "20250208", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": 3.609564555437686, "index": 103.60956455543769, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.027870680044591, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.129319955406912, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.08361204013377, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.992196209587515, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.027870680044591, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.739130434782609, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.609564555437686, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9857142857142858, "attemptProjection": 1.0960819445682652, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4067.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.683333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.142857142857143, "onNet": 0.4732366674858688, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03880180658873539, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0408981151412755, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0408981151412755, "baseline": 0.9565217391304348, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 46, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478046", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0071475647369392, "adjustedSOG": 0.9603238305373694, "reductionPct": 4.64914336677168, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0408981151412755, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0085390575158146, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9948332615474813, "afterRecentZones": 1.0397667378236757, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9937519532325403, "adjusted": 0.9628585581419924, "playerFactor": 0.9689123679303916, "defenseFactor": 0.9557450888576716, "oldChartFactor": 1.1082869366631305, "newChartFactor": 1.1057428106020493, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7648330982604608, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7889537542135877, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.21666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9603238305373694, "adjustedSOG": 0.941117353926622, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.941117353926622, "adjustedSOG": 0.941117353926622 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 131.0, "goalExpected": 0.11884624461444447, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12089049476982973, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11205568351259952, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18133262292552854 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286182413981431, "modelSOG": 0.941117353926622, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 46, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 131.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11450381679389313, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12061395731521346, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478047", "name": "Michael Bunting", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "priorSOG": 1.7027027027027026, "currentTOI": 11.416666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 9.523809523809524, "ppShare": 0.4043835616438356, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7571428571428573, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.79, "currentIXG": 0.11285714285714286, "priorTOI": 14.441441441441443, "priorPPTOI": 1.7554054054054056, "deploymentChange": -3.024774774774775, "ppTOIChange": 0.0017374517374517673, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020963", "date": "20260303", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020016", "date": "20251009", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021185", "date": "20250401", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020645", "date": "20250107", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020267", "date": "20241115", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11759996308658571, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.1795583358577332, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17756588956976857, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16436079820833224, "goalProbability": 0.1626941722025989, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16666260057333349, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5268570766942264, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.5, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.523809523809524, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4043835616438356, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9727235686687739, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0029891850709194, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 738.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1825.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.949040370615487, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.237875288683602, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.251351351351351, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36341350355118385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.016855500362784, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.060794339428207, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0684003114582439, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0786745588012783, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0368843567989445, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020963", "date": "20260303", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020016", "date": "20251009", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021185", "date": "20250401", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020645", "date": "20250107", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020267", "date": "20241115", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Michael Bunting", "Denver Barkey", "Cole Knuble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 189, "fitPct": 2.0264779809402285, "index": 102.02647798094023, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 41.37566137566138, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.804232804232804, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.037037037037038, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.957671957671957, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.53968253968254, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 2.280010381941466, "index": 102.28001038194147, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.424242424242422, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.484848484848486, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.75757575757576, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.0264779809402285, "zonePPFit": 2.280010381941466, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4356805947530002, "attemptProjection": 1.4135787531386335, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 4000.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.523809523809524, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.46500599041533547, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 738.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.9727235686687739, "projectedAttempts": 0.8019201498653553, "onNet": 0.5831793874574623, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8545416032628395, "ppAdjusted": 0.5700880706829774, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4246296739458169, "baseline": 1.7027027027027026, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478047", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.535858885448571, "adjustedSOG": 1.5268570766942264, "reductionPct": 0.5861091041391764, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8545416032628395, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8481985185790571, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8545416032628395, "afterRecentZones": 0.8540866945487859, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8540866945487859, "adjusted": 0.8477469865578242, "playerFactor": 0.9925772078743001, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.060794339428207, "newChartFactor": 1.0595417087457792, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9426057813154587, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1698315100215602, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5700880706829774, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5700880706829774, "afterRecentDefense": 0.561879672797418, "afterRecentZones": 0.5700880706829774, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5618796727974179, "adjusted": 0.5618796727974179, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.0684003114582439, "newChartFactor": 1.0684003114582439, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.466666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2992957746478873, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5268570766942264, "adjustedSOG": 1.5268570766942264, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 157, "beforeSOG": 1.5268570766942264, "adjustedSOG": 1.5268570766942264 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.1475916589958534, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14486210430305146, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13721664715877752, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23582313461773807 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863985603768424, "modelSOG": 1.5268570766942264, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 74, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11379310344827587, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11759996308658571, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.49231523253071, "btb": { "id": "8478047", "name": "Michael Bunting", "score": 41.49231523253071, "components": { "Goal model": 60.66838046272493, "SOG model": 59.897172236503856, "Unit attack": 2.380952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 40.3598971722365, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 65.24216524216524, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8162747588531591, "unitPlayers": [ "Michael Bunting", "Denver Barkey", "Cole Knuble" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 252 } }, { "id": "8478055", "name": "Gustav Forsling", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.4, "currentTOI": 21.41212121212121, "currentFiveTOI": 16.60151515151515, "ppShare": 0.07973797153828778, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5348484848484849, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.654, "currentIXG": 0.059454545454545454, "priorTOI": 22.62875, "priorPPTOI": 0.5552083333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.2166287878787898, "ppTOIChange": -0.020359848484848397, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 27.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04690371992916164, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 322.0, "goalExpected": 0.06981571327112927, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0702336979098359, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06743433645319714, "goalProbability": 0.06782405312168052, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.038971666848337805, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.488489897529907, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.9426850415259653, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.60151515151515, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07973797153828778, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.43540758271670854, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 353.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4427.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.030618073803267, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.235416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10860263254411344, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1190762862241102, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5763957878005166, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 27.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": 3.969209540803675, "index": 103.96920954080367, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 77.0981507823613, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 110 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.238975817923187, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.0810810810810811, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.500711237553343, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8108108108108109, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.2702702702702703, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.969209540803675, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5272727272727271, "attemptProjection": 1.6689514139854607, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10957.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.60151515151515, "projectedAttempts": 3.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.3631427217439381, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 353.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.43540758271670854, "projectedAttempts": 0.07400695456941221, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3082968843680567, "ppAdjusted": 0.017087913533764484, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5981120706290939, "baseline": 1.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478055", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.518867242377456, "adjustedSOG": 1.518867242377456, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.518867242377456, "adjustedSOG": 1.488489897529907, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 170, "beforeSOG": 1.488489897529907, "adjustedSOG": 1.488489897529907 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 320.0, "goalExpected": 0.06936658100742311, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06936658100742311, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06701539705311553, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057933698101062116, "modelSOG": 1.488489897529907, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 322.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04690371992916164, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.59307116942476, "btb": { "id": "8478055", "name": "Gustav Forsling", "score": 38.59307116942476, "components": { "Goal model": 21.079691516709513, "SOG model": 56.55526992287918, "Unit attack": 78.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 13.624678663239074, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 44.66829466829467, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1231281998784506, "unitPlayers": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 283 } }, { "id": "8478109", "name": "Victor Olofsson", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 1.8846153846153846, "currentTOI": 13.1375, "currentFiveTOI": 10.995833333333334, "ppShare": 0.34730113636363635, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.059, "currentIXG": 0.26475, "priorTOI": 13.561111111111112, "priorPPTOI": 1.9506410256410258, "deploymentChange": -0.4236111111111125, "ppTOIChange": 0.08685897435897427, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020841", "date": "20260128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020691", "date": "20260108", "team": "COL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12290967467263575, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 265.0, "goalExpected": 0.22385194846129206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2249407074687726, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20056651703444925, "goalProbability": 0.20143643378912532, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.086991675467607, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8212719955325845, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.549071618037136, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.723926380368098, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.995833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34730113636363635, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.748416329763986, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.00414987214829, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 489.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1408.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.988446823347594, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.80216891225764, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.337393162393163, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.517953146211552, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9863588161573316, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8556894384953166, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0469204171000281, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0480932820458106, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.549071618037136, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.723926380368098, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020841", "date": "20260128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020691", "date": "20260108", "team": "COL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -4.810352050156112, "index": 95.18964794984389, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.014084507042254, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 35.39906103286385, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.089201877934272, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.83568075117371, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.71361502347418, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.948356807511737, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 46, "fitPct": 1.5640139033342706, "index": 101.56401390333427, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.82608695652174, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.304347826086957, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.4782608695652173, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.869565217391305, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 46.52173913043478, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.810352050156112, "zonePPFit": 1.5640139033342706, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9371940882073195, "attemptProjection": 1.6254294297254988, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2639.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.995833333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.75, "onNet": 0.5206620227308437, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 489.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.748416329763986, "projectedAttempts": 0.4290592220279721, "onNet": 0.5783628136569313, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.437841543269997, "ppAdjusted": 0.34347021569641223, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7813117589664091, "baseline": 1.8846153846153846, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478109", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8226332092259994, "adjustedSOG": 1.8212719955325845, "reductionPct": 0.07468390713636364, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.437841543269997, "afterPlayerForm": 1.437841543269997, "afterRecentDefense": 1.437841543269997, "afterRecentZones": 1.437841543269997, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.437841543269997, "adjusted": 1.437841543269997, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8556894384953166, "newChartFactor": 0.8457625578511194, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 43.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0539918860508322, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.34347021569641223, "afterPlayerForm": 0.34347021569641223, "afterRecentDefense": 0.34347021569641223, "afterRecentZones": 0.3412015262073876, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3412015262073876, "adjusted": 0.3412015262073876, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0469204171000281, "newChartFactor": 1.0363570701119078, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8212719955325845, "adjustedSOG": 1.8212719955325845, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.8212719955325845, "adjustedSOG": 1.8212719955325845 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 265.0, "goalExpected": 0.2778621634254779, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2808271775294897, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2425987880916486, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22423792898063344 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862031255512046, "modelSOG": 1.8212719955325845, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 78, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 265.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12075471698113208, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12290967467263575, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478133", "name": "Jake Evans", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.9090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.1029411764705883, "currentTOI": 14.298484848484849, "currentFiveTOI": 9.862121212121211, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.558, "currentIXG": 0.14163636363636364, "priorTOI": 15.356372549019609, "priorPPTOI": 0.04828431372549019, "deploymentChange": -1.05788770053476, "ppTOIChange": -0.04828431372549019, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1503966174463795, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.14973005296919514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15694976206036024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13905964664899673, "goalProbability": 0.14525300153280746, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6193354883810731, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9955679556594949, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.765401751421109, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.862121212121211, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0129869856635516, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.018853882411312, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.855882352941178, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010162944322113874, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0762282262848515, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.93379012445849, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0049712893682714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.117962930885155, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Florian Xhekaj" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": -2.2069958513836667, "index": 97.79300414861633, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.36363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.363636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.727272727272728, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.2069958513836667, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9113505860764869, "attemptProjection": 1.0583385934270801, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 6509.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.862121212121211, "projectedAttempts": 1.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.48433369664624604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.530299135206329, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9848445897517835, "baseline": 1.1029411764705883, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478133", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0320832244393054, "adjustedSOG": 1.0158856690403009, "reductionPct": 1.56940399915948, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.530299135206329, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5048240106467187, "afterRecentDefense": 0.530299135206329, "afterRecentZones": 0.5287015893408304, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5287015893408304, "adjusted": 0.5033032095413212, "playerFactor": 0.9519608408380706, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.93379012445849, "newChartFactor": 0.9272587943590574, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6521553991433511, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1264171989753764, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0158856690403009, "adjustedSOG": 0.9955679556594949, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 303, "beforeSOG": 0.9955679556594949, "adjustedSOG": 0.9955679556594949 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 164.0, "goalExpected": 0.14989002063686152, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14989002063686152, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13919735825432633, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855103623290567, "modelSOG": 0.9955679556594949, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 165.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16363636363636364, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1503966174463795, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.09115187166748, "btb": { "id": "8478133", "name": "Jake Evans", "score": 49.09115187166748, "components": { "Goal model": 50.89974293059126, "SOG model": 22.36503856041131, "Unit attack": 73.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 43.70179948586118, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 55.88428665351742, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.972631121330533, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Florian Xhekaj" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 186 } }, { "id": "8478147", "name": "Bokondji Imama", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 7.481944444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 7.338888888888889, "ppShare": 0.0025722200237435692, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.018055555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.435, "currentIXG": 0.03625, "priorTOI": 7.641666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -0.15972222222222232, "ppTOIChange": 0.018055555555555557, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11551317252324003, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.09208960877463221, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09264094657594944, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08797657941782526, "goalProbability": 0.08847927381533312, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.050269439750785794, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7972217086852562, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.4504163512490535, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.338888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0025722200237435692, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.014045555475610877, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0086448480146264, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.851690294438386, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 7.641666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1706377710482143, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.0359712230215825, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 5.687925701607142, "index": 105.68792570160714, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.687925701607142, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7666666666666666, "attemptProjection": 0.6116384649158374, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 5284.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.338888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.0833333333333333, "onNet": 0.5200060855012931, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.014045555475610877, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6891525657912521, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6891525657912521, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478147", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8134915394747513, "adjustedSOG": 0.8134915394747513, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8134915394747513, "adjustedSOG": 0.7972217086852562, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 343, "beforeSOG": 0.7972217086852562, "adjustedSOG": 0.7972217086852562 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.09217029582303995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09217029582303995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08805016492697208, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861580702788802, "modelSOG": 0.7972217086852562, "historyGames": 30, "seasonGames": { "2024": 16, "2025": 2, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 20.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11551317252324003, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 31.10597270305251, "btb": { "id": "8478147", "name": "Bokondji Imama", "score": 31.10597270305251, "components": { "Goal model": 30.334190231362467, "SOG model": 12.082262210796916, "Unit attack": 9.523809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 3.0848329048843186, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9400820824871499, "unitPlayers": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 351 } }, { "id": "8478173", "name": "Hayden Hodgson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.4, "currentTOI": 5.1875, "currentFiveTOI": 5.154166666666667, "ppShare": 0.0030935808197989174, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 10, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.239, "currentIXG": 0.05975, "priorTOI": 7.025, "priorPPTOI": 0.011666666666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.8375000000000004, "ppTOIChange": 0.004999999999999999, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12132902096212853, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.03427659303993371, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.034957466835045234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.033695805343530026, "goalProbability": 0.034353512614546285, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06577072710162585, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.28250943400122513, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 5.154166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0030935808197989174, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.014739954125104938, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.0123300586459183, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1293.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.438395415472779, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.9799999999999995, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0023613042297787614, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9974150351724723, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7530335170630279, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": -8.23221609789907, "index": 91.76778390210093, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.888888888888886, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.444444444444443, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.23221609789907, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.43722716781371207, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1237.0, "expectedMinutes": 5.154166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.46387972130546384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.014739954125104938, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.21861358390685603, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.21861358390685603, "baseline": 0.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 10, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478173", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.29116815034411364, "adjustedSOG": 0.28827493265431137, "reductionPct": 0.9936587110859985, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.21861358390685603, "afterPlayerForm": 0.21861358390685603, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21379155442385223, "afterRecentZones": 0.21861358390685603, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21379155442385223, "adjusted": 0.21379155442385223, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9779426813429017, "oldChartFactor": 0.7530335170630279, "newChartFactor": 0.7530335170630279, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8985160168770259, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.28827493265431137, "adjustedSOG": 0.28250943400122513, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.28250943400122513, "adjustedSOG": 0.28250943400122513 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860876221985623, "modelSOG": 0.28250943400122513, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 10, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 6.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12132902096212853, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478233", "name": "Andrew Mangiapane", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.9354838709677419, "currentTOI": 7.075, "currentFiveTOI": 7.05, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.20299999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.10149999999999999, "priorTOI": 12.484408602150538, "priorPPTOI": 0.13709677419354838, "deploymentChange": -5.409408602150537, "ppTOIChange": -0.13709677419354838, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020929", "date": "20260226", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021047", "date": "20250313", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020541", "date": "20241222", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13723725617479166, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.10079517847780792, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10079517847780792, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09588180321225173, "goalProbability": 0.09588180321225173, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.734459295436733, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.25531914893617, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9834434281842819, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.326923076923077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.117647058823529, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.853763440860215, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0316798365624118, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560975609756097, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9637562268299114, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9214449778471347, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.25, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020929", "date": "20260226", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021047", "date": "20250313", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020541", "date": "20241222", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -1.2081257723362882, "index": 98.79187422766371, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.294117647058824, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.529411764705884, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.29411764705882, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.176470588235295, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.2081257723362882, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4607224889235674, "attemptProjection": 0.7401633345752201, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 846.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.05, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.4860449695581409, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6004429117493937, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6004429117493937, "baseline": 0.9354838709677419, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478233", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.734459295436733, "adjustedSOG": 0.734459295436733, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.734459295436733, "adjustedSOG": 0.734459295436733, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.734459295436733, "adjustedSOG": 0.734459295436733 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.12326981805811277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12732350138420137, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11597489555837945, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3576304325856122 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858263068397077, "modelSOG": 0.734459295436733, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 62, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 154.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13723725617479166, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478366", "name": "Frank Vatrano", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.58, "currentTOI": 11.828571428571427, "currentFiveTOI": 10.58095238095238, "ppShare": 0.18010291595197256, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.75, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.049, "currentIXG": 0.14985714285714286, "priorTOI": 11.822333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.7463333333333334, "deploymentChange": 0.006238095238094488, "ppTOIChange": 0.003666666666666596, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0973138156288695, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 320.0, "goalExpected": 0.12802604746537197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12802604746537197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12016953850730719, "goalProbability": 0.12016953850730719, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.315599913928267, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6705670567056705, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.58095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18010291595197256, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8471554174813181, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0249616817777094, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 315.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1749.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.426466224903571, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.43144260830728, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14252953871473598, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.611847233047545, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 11.967654053875535, "index": 111.96765405387553, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.621962196219624, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.603060306030605, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.076507650765073, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.335733573357334, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.324032403240324, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.038703870387039, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.967654053875535, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.1286663797608893, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 4444.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.58095238095238, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5007735148514851, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 315.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8471554174813181, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1393331898804446, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1393331898804446, "baseline": 1.58, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478366", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.315599913928267, "adjustedSOG": 1.315599913928267, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.315599913928267, "adjustedSOG": 1.315599913928267, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.315599913928267, "adjustedSOG": 1.315599913928267 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 319.0, "goalExpected": 0.10235982071903317, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09883860394611987, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09729531862267682, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3184221742469476 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1287180256412519, "modelSOG": 1.315599913928267, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 50, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 320.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0973138156288695, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478396", "name": "Noah Hanifin", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.1538461538461537, "priorSOG": 1.9014084507042253, "currentTOI": 20.102564102564102, "currentFiveTOI": 18.18846153846154, "ppShare": 0.061823802163833076, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3076923076923077, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.15 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.16, "currentIXG": 0.08923076923076922, "priorTOI": 22.60117370892019, "priorPPTOI": 0.7715962441314553, "deploymentChange": -2.498609606356087, "ppTOIChange": -0.4639039364391476, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 27.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052626527748493156, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 295.0, "goalExpected": 0.07301080060644959, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07336590659212468, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07040921017270739, "goalProbability": 0.07073925482251993, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03300446498125387, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3873383582396823, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8063015436667373, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.18846153846154, "Current_PP_Share": 0.061823802163833076, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.31123925018824555, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 240.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.033690529284844, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.952236081533313, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.474413145539906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.16897471429008473, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8390657805671081, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.242424242424242, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 27.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.783333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeremy Lauzon", "Noah Hanifin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 172, "fitPct": -5.3644739810963955, "index": 94.6355260189036, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.71627906976744, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 108 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.762790697674419, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.562790697674419, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.027906976744186, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.330232558139535, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.3644739810963955, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9807692307692308, "attemptProjection": 1.1257563564336932, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 14187.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.18846153846154, "projectedAttempts": 2.923076923076923, "onNet": 0.3972336308348472, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 240.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.31123925018824555, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.053262793601462, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.053262793601462, "baseline": 1.9014084507042253, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478396", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3925210564425674, "adjustedSOG": 1.3873383582396823, "reductionPct": 0.3721809576169077, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.053262793601462, "afterPlayerForm": 1.053262793601462, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0446249632633204, "afterRecentZones": 1.053262793601462, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0446249632633204, "adjusted": 1.0446249632633204, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.8390657805671081, "newChartFactor": 0.8390657805671081, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 91.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0202462340949843, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3873383582396823, "adjustedSOG": 1.3873383582396823, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 195, "beforeSOG": 1.3873383582396823, "adjustedSOG": 1.3873383582396823 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 294.0, "goalExpected": 0.06686497093030887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06757847427106103, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06467851159918682, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06671169832514479 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787478460654796, "modelSOG": 1.3873383582396823, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 71, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 295.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05084745762711865, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052626527748493156, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.89401552637017, "btb": { "id": "8478396", "name": "Noah Hanifin", "score": 33.89401552637017, "components": { "Goal model": 23.65038560411311, "SOG model": 50.12853470437018, "Unit attack": 37.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 18.508997429305914, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 44.87179487179487, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.376976164209342, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeremy Lauzon", "Noah Hanifin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 323 } }, { "id": "8478397", "name": "Rasmus Andersson", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.8461538461538463, "priorSOG": 2.197530864197531, "currentTOI": 18.964102564102564, "currentFiveTOI": 17.00897435897436, "ppShare": 0.26403915507470377, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.314102564102564, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.433, "currentIXG": 0.11023076923076923, "priorTOI": 23.20164609053498, "priorPPTOI": 1.887037037037037, "deploymentChange": -4.237543526432415, "ppTOIChange": -0.572934472934473, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020168", "date": "20251030", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020517", "date": "20241219", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0769081350995901, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.13495878646798262, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13561519171893388, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12624807865122756, "goalProbability": 0.1268214258058018, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05733471545742441, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7548050839254055, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.15564935554383, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.048780487804878, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.00897435897436, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26403915507470377, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.329250964345632, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1025.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.559940968527989, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.206084396467125, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.985802469135802, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4132492175970436, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8683668255871063, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9752036319469731, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9762961525781771, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.561613958560524, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.634146341463415, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020168", "date": "20251030", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020517", "date": "20241219", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020340", "date": "20241125", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ville Heinola", "Rasmus Andersson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 210, "fitPct": -4.387772480429788, "index": 95.61222751957021, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.19047619047619, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 97 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.142857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.952380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.4761904761904763, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": -0.8265456017675632, "index": 99.17345439823244, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.34146341463415, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.829268292682926, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.926829268292686, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.387772480429788, "zonePPFit": -0.8265456017675632, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6230924517208698, "attemptProjection": 1.501317459942469, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 13267.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.00897435897436, "projectedAttempts": 2.923076923076923, "onNet": 0.4426881762893926, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1025.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.329250964345632, "projectedAttempts": 0.3890490627353069, "onNet": 0.45656565656565656, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2484409005359804, "ppAdjusted": 0.23684097837261192, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5622049558316693, "baseline": 2.197530864197531, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478397", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8163353191780138, "adjustedSOG": 1.7548050839254055, "reductionPct": 3.387603302261055, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2484409005359804, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1547946768947284, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2388146628192676, "afterRecentZones": 1.2484409005359804, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2388146628192676, "adjusted": 1.1458905084482998, "playerFactor": 0.9249894619752942, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.8683668255871063, "newChartFactor": 0.8683668255871063, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 89.83333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5829655307098917, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.23684097837261192, "afterPlayerForm": 0.23684097837261192, "afterRecentDefense": 0.23684097837261192, "afterRecentZones": 0.23684097837261192, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23684097837261192, "adjusted": 0.23684097837261192, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9752036319469731, "newChartFactor": 0.9752036319469731, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.633333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.212230215827338, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7548050839254055, "adjustedSOG": 1.7548050839254055, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 114, "beforeSOG": 1.7548050839254055, "adjustedSOG": 1.7548050839254055 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 363.0, "goalExpected": 0.15136164787323156, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1529767991238298, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14046320720970593, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13871613865274746 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762282821309401, "modelSOG": 1.7548050839254055, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 365.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0821917808219178, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0769081350995901, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.362644326629585, "btb": { "id": "8478397", "name": "Rasmus Andersson", "score": 45.362644326629585, "components": { "Goal model": 46.01542416452442, "SOG model": 70.95115681233933, "Unit attack": 56.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 20.689655172413794, "Shot quality": 26.22107969151671, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 53.13390313390313, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6395952934927362, "unitPlayers": [ "Ville Heinola", "Rasmus Andersson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 215 } }, { "id": "8478398", "name": "Kyle Connor", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 4.454545454545454, "priorSOG": 3.341463414634146, "currentTOI": 21.333333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 15.91969696969697, "ppShare": 0.7319727891156462, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 49.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2606060606060607, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.251, "currentIXG": 0.5682727272727273, "priorTOI": 21.50630081300813, "priorPPTOI": 3.0134146341463413, "deploymentChange": -0.1729674796747993, "ppTOIChange": 0.24719142645971948, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14760665049253674, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 590.0, "goalExpected": 0.5138532247960305, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5245381042499234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.40181381348073597, "goalProbability": 0.4081713356112486, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6357522130512605, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.481233556085685, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.306747882364139, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.728624535315983, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.91969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7319727891156462, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.954316635745207, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5454545454545454, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.010227875253061, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2152.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.735447207624029, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.683933630109268, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.166260162601628, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6603008898429635, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9683312445772679, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.807133028950153, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.45159580108154, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 47, "priorAttempts": 281, "fitPct": -6.428899034994899, "index": 93.5711009650051, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.942681911107746, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.714166729764518, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.825092753842657, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.60679942454759, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.626561671840692, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.2846975088967972, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": -21.984027221097705, "index": 78.0159727789023, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.806451612903226, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.15668202764977, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.58986175115207, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 56.22119815668203, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6451612903225806, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.428899034994899, "zonePPFit": -21.984027221097705, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.032583487940631, "attemptProjection": 3.989671586761097, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 54.0, "sog": 33.0, "seconds": 10507.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.91969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 4.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.5553883017940525, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 2152.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.954316635745207, "projectedAttempts": 1.8742578849721705, "onNet": 0.5682815867188123, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.503972401209131, "ppAdjusted": 0.9617005906871875, "other": 0.5454545454545454 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.011127537350864, "baseline": 3.341463414634146, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478398", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.7432618882641773, "adjustedSOG": 3.7432618882641773, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.7432618882641773, "adjustedSOG": 3.7432618882641773, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 4, "beforeSOG": 3.7432618882641773, "adjustedSOG": 3.481233556085685 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 585.0, "goalExpected": 0.5141497296395362, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5141497296395362, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.40199115229015, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284858883985035, "modelSOG": 3.481233556085685, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 89.0, "historyShots": 590.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15084745762711865, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14760665049253674, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.30301897531623, "btb": { "id": "8478398", "name": "Kyle Connor", "score": 68.30301897531623, "components": { "Goal model": 99.74293059125964, "SOG model": 99.22879177377892, "Unit attack": 85.71428571428571, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 48.275862068965516, "Shot quality": 99.22879177377892, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 42.79609279609279, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.320862519160167, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 25 } }, { "id": "8478399", "name": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 0.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 19.45909090909091, "currentFiveTOI": 16.93939393939394, "ppShare": 0.02205419029615627, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10606060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.365, "currentIXG": 0.03318181818181818, "priorTOI": 19.478048780487807, "priorPPTOI": 0.03882113821138211, "deploymentChange": -0.01895787139689631, "ppTOIChange": 0.06723946784922395, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.036248313880323416, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.016288220369604582, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.016168537940463606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.016156284612354844, "goalProbability": 0.01603852876008951, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.011775585226533533, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.44935111805148753, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.9660107334525939, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.93939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02205419029615627, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12186610910618471, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 70.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.472878866834052, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.161788617886177, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010009328064898175, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7628410176143376, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.7970773829292593, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": -7.905299412855413, "index": 92.09470058714459, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 49.4059405940594, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.584158415841586, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.9603960396039604, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.881188118811881, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9801980198019802, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1881188118811883, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.905299412855413, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.23181818181818184, "attemptProjection": 0.32097722552469116, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 11180.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.93939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 1.0000000000000002, "onNet": 0.37633704120436967, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 70.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.12186610910618471, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.2763977036714365, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.2763977036714365, "baseline": 0.7317073170731707, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478399", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.45852154903213016, "adjustedSOG": 0.45852154903213016, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.45852154903213016, "adjustedSOG": 0.44935111805148753, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 386, "beforeSOG": 0.44935111805148753, "adjustedSOG": 0.44935111805148753 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.007790549336746257, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.007960642357257167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.007760281658876678, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.016875869801832172 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05793387484269534, "modelSOG": 0.44935111805148753, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017391304347826087, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.036248313880323416, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.881976864596698, "btb": { "id": "8478399", "name": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "score": 31.881976864596698, "components": { "Goal model": 0.2570694087403599, "SOG model": 1.0282776349614395, "Unit attack": 98.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 5.141388174807198, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 56.29154795821462, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.70066725187376, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 346 } }, { "id": "8478401", "name": "Pavel Zacha", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.6794871794871795, "currentTOI": 18.366666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.057575757575757, "ppShare": 0.5898555592878737, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6606060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.061, "currentIXG": 0.2782727272727273, "priorTOI": 16.846153846153847, "priorPPTOI": 2.7645299145299145, "deploymentChange": 1.5205128205128204, "ppTOIChange": -0.10392385392385384, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15446587329214126, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.2355748611662796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2355748611662796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20988348824879569, "goalProbability": 0.20988348824879569, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5250932529332024, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.820219874973055, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.100227790432802, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.057575757575757, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5898555592878737, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7591186992009966, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9910807999229769, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1756.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2977.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1295417817859565, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.7910032462513525, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.296794871794871, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6304807436767461, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8398196857341218, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8037108364301502, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.0921634990887785, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.206073752711497, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "JJ Peterka", "Pavel Zacha", "David Pastrnak" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": -5.339343808862608, "index": 94.66065619113739, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.734834271419636, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.186366479049408, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.42401500938087, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.5109443402126335, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.867417135709818, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.2764227642276422, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -6.542972118994996, "index": 93.457027881005, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 55.407407407407405, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9629629629629632, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9629629629629632, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.339343808862608, "zonePPFit": -6.542972118994996, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4102677148738618, "attemptProjection": 1.6172956695433027, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9278.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.057575757575757, "projectedAttempts": 2.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.5001607764038704, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1756.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7591186992009966, "projectedAttempts": 0.7542010111711153, "onNet": 0.4831760097604829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1822224052092982, "ppAdjusted": 0.24065019609019322, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5137816922085823, "baseline": 1.6794871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478401", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5800638871200212, "adjustedSOG": 1.55621760503388, "reductionPct": 1.5091973356599953, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1822224052092982, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1424786017323965, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1822224052092982, "afterRecentZones": 1.1822224052092982, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1822224052092982, "adjusted": 1.1424786017323965, "playerFactor": 0.9663821263226139, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8398196857341218, "newChartFactor": 0.8398196857341218, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.36666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.791012385484646, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2256017558130021, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.24065019609019322, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24065019609019322, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24065019609019322, "afterRecentZones": 0.24065019609019322, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24065019609019322, "adjusted": 0.24065019609019322, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8037108364301502, "newChartFactor": 0.8037108364301502, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.583333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5442211055276382, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.55621760503388, "adjustedSOG": 1.5250932529332024, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 158, "beforeSOG": 1.5250932529332024, "adjustedSOG": 1.5250932529332024 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 279.0, "goalExpected": 0.28076516026316634, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2700539927453681, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24479433304276216, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8132611537646606 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851497724305824, "modelSOG": 1.5250932529332024, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 46.0, "historyShots": 281.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16370106761565836, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15446587329214126, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.246346920151325, "btb": { "id": "8478401", "name": "Pavel Zacha", "score": 60.246346920151325, "components": { "Goal model": 75.06426735218508, "SOG model": 59.6401028277635, "Unit attack": 89.28571428571429, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.586206896551722, "Shot quality": 82.0051413881748, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.09188034188034, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.552140526598164, "unitPlayers": [ "JJ Peterka", "Pavel Zacha", "David Pastrnak" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 79 } }, { "id": "8478403", "name": "Jack Eichel", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.923076923076923, "priorSOG": 3.5135135135135136, "currentTOI": 19.794871794871792, "currentFiveTOI": 14.398717948717948, "ppShare": 0.753219989696033, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 38.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7487179487179487, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.261, "currentIXG": 0.32776923076923076, "priorTOI": 21.200900900900898, "priorPPTOI": 3.4486486486486485, "deploymentChange": -1.4060291060291057, "ppTOIChange": 0.3000693000693002, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11706282021757866, "goalHistoryGoals": 61.0, "goalHistoryShots": 531.0, "goalExpected": 0.3200759660692283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3216327342525357, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27390612351913624, "goalProbability": 0.27503560396641347, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11294804472772313, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.7342239446676535, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.616240762176119, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.462380300957592, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.398717948717948, "Current_PP_Share": 0.753219989696033, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.791931531460125, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.46153846153846156, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.008610960945701, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.22502666192677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.205405405405406, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.755232318099533, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.003243076289509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8627275490143598, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9695790699948789, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8655254402728745, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9706652894293145, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.04621435594887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.265377855887522, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ivan Barbashev", "Jack Eichel", "Mark Stone" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 233, "fitPct": -4.575748366188009, "index": 95.42425163381199, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.941428932087856, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.25347134561979, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.48043423377935, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.474375157788435, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.65210805352184, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.198182277202727, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": -1.0140310001707036, "index": 98.9859689998293, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 70.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.575748366188009, "zonePPFit": -1.0140310001707036, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.60995943060104, "attemptProjection": 2.6909248140950455, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 47.0, "sog": 30.0, "seconds": 11231.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.398717948717948, "projectedAttempts": 3.615384615384615, "onNet": 0.5722992050382835, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2924.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.791931531460125, "projectedAttempts": 0.46685887528236836, "onNet": 0.5004322958233572, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.00169445505472, "ppAdjusted": 0.187209205754861, "other": 0.46153846153846156 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6504421223480428, "baseline": 3.5135135135135136, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478403", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.995670678814231, "adjustedSOG": 2.940025746954466, "reductionPct": 1.8575116501721278, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.00169445505472, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9526713664837123, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9568784099523682, "afterRecentZones": 1.9897323131053657, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9568784099523682, "adjusted": 1.9089529019551121, "playerFactor": 0.9755092049901953, "defenseFactor": 0.9731786902394182, "oldChartFactor": 0.8627275490143598, "newChartFactor": 0.8523938722270915, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.38333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8487714189267487, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8733075627278325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.187209205754861, "afterPlayerForm": 0.187209205754861, "afterRecentDefense": 0.187209205754861, "afterRecentZones": 0.187209205754861, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.187209205754861, "adjusted": 0.187209205754861, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9695790699948789, "newChartFactor": 0.9695790699948789, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.7982779827798279, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.940025746954466, "adjustedSOG": 2.940025746954466, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 19, "beforeSOG": 2.940025746954466, "adjustedSOG": 2.7342239446676535 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 521.0, "goalExpected": 0.27847894525717265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2814505409223712, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24306579536285222, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2245963700615805 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866639557292128, "modelSOG": 2.7342239446676535, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 74, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 61.0, "historyShots": 531.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11487758945386065, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11706282021757866, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.25080334501864, "btb": { "id": "8478403", "name": "Jack Eichel", "score": 70.25080334501864, "components": { "Goal model": 90.74550128534705, "SOG model": 95.37275064267352, "Unit attack": 75.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 86.20689655172414, "Shot quality": 88.4318766066838, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 53.622303622303626, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0537795518379873, "unitPlayers": [ "Ivan Barbashev", "Jack Eichel", "Mark Stone" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 14 } }, { "id": "8478413", "name": "Jordan Greenway", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 0.8, "currentTOI": 13.55909090909091, "currentFiveTOI": 11.746969696969698, "ppShare": 0.007371794871794872, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 40, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03484848484848485, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.203, "currentIXG": 0.20027272727272727, "priorTOI": 12.445, "priorPPTOI": 0.017916666666666668, "deploymentChange": 1.1140909090909101, "ppTOIChange": 0.016931818181818183, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020012", "date": "20241010", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.25 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09709405735720135, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.11581117680798898, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11581117680798898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10935661845286855, "goalProbability": 0.10935661845286855, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1927730693334695, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.965045788726944, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.746969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007371794871794872, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.033113879176379174, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9811709781784709, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 23.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.586535016124537, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.465416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0037381790424494297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1141562853907137, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9842227457532526, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0965779584054927, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.658488157708127, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020012", "date": "20241010", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Jordan Greenway", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -0.5259084748915797, "index": 99.47409152510842, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.97142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.771428571428569, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.31428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.17142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5259084748915797, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5862426705529447, "attemptProjection": 1.3230008938919533, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7753.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.746969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 2.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.533993399339934, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 23.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.033113879176379174, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3637126913133581, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.454621782222449, "baseline": 0.8, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 40, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478413", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1927730693334695, "adjustedSOG": 1.1927730693334695, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1927730693334695, "adjustedSOG": 1.1927730693334695, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 249, "beforeSOG": 1.1927730693334695, "adjustedSOG": 1.1927730693334695 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.10632133294387819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10981767147468492, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10086432026402865, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3138193431305891 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865306553725048, "modelSOG": 1.1927730693334695, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2024": 34, "2025": 40, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05952380952380952, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09709405735720135, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.414658606175315, "btb": { "id": "8478413", "name": "Jordan Greenway", "score": 41.414658606175315, "components": { "Goal model": 38.303341902313626, "SOG model": 36.246786632390744, "Unit attack": 29.761904761904763, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 65.29562982005142, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.572649572649574, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.195097987569326, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Jordan Greenway", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 254 } }, { "id": "8478414", "name": "Timo Meier", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 4.181818181818182, "priorSOG": 3.4935064935064934, "currentTOI": 16.312121212121212, "currentFiveTOI": 13.603030303030302, "ppShare": 0.3078134845620668, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 46.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4803030303030305, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.822, "currentIXG": 0.34745454545454546, "priorTOI": 18.516233766233768, "priorPPTOI": 1.8686147186147186, "deploymentChange": -2.2041125541125552, "ppTOIChange": -0.38831168831168816, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09767293264462383, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 554.0, "goalExpected": 0.31284671240236206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31054798033467995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26863798729718674, "goalProbability": 0.26695484818374093, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16831391134458085, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.2030031650696213, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 14.43528625529071, "Current_PP_SOG60": 29.47799385875128, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.603030303030302, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3078134845620668, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.700902694239178, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9668487729131949, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 977.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.710013276500593, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 20.016216842349124, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.488095238095237, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4817884948058617, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.33475216257037, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 29.508196721311474, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 53, "priorAttempts": 321, "fitPct": -9.735583072125891, "index": 90.26441692787411, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.26908834420737, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.64168576970552, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.844648210192204, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.05407629459825, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 61 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.04226179980015, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.148239581496502, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 67, "fitPct": -13.765629794585308, "index": 86.23437020541469, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.91542288557214, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.109452736318406, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.980099502487562, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.582089552238806, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.21890547263681, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1940298507462688, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.735583072125891, "zonePPFit": -13.765629794585308, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.67394168528384, "attemptProjection": 3.3826395370001694, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 66.0, "sog": 36.0, "seconds": 8978.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.603030303030302, "projectedAttempts": 5.999999999999999, "onNet": 0.5237964085050126, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 977.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.700902694239178, "projectedAttempts": 1.0445666494815833, "onNet": 0.6012477718360072, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.7311443019079107, "ppAdjusted": 0.6153281274159124, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.5282906111420047, "baseline": 3.4935064935064934, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478414", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.5143769640878, "adjustedSOG": 3.5143769640878, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.5143769640878, "adjustedSOG": 3.444089424806044, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 6, "beforeSOG": 3.444089424806044, "adjustedSOG": 3.2030031650696213 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 546.0, "goalExpected": 0.4065834169174194, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4154604547852027, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.33407845582332596, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5885250322332947 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12878097949583991, "modelSOG": 3.2030031650696213, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 554.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09205776173285199, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09767293264462383, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.82770379348946, "btb": { "id": "8478414", "name": "Timo Meier", "score": 62.82770379348946, "components": { "Goal model": 89.20308483290488, "SOG model": 98.7146529562982, "Unit attack": 88.0952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 17.24137931034483, "Shot quality": 89.97429305912597, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 50.28490028490028, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4770393227530136, "unitPlayers": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 65 } }, { "id": "8478420", "name": "Mikko Rantanen", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 2.171875, "currentTOI": 20.63181818181818, "currentFiveTOI": 15.496969696969698, "ppShare": 0.9259902710215427, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.037878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.374, "currentIXG": 0.30672727272727274, "priorTOI": 20.17578125, "priorPPTOI": 3.73046875, "deploymentChange": 0.45603693181817917, "ppTOIChange": 0.30741003787878807, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1533680066087994, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 375.0, "goalExpected": 0.3143971782299182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3143971782299182, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26977106048284083, "goalProbability": 0.26977106048284083, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.049952823810646, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.279624560031286, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.105065666041275, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.496969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.9259902710215427, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.002803398824941, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0126724991491074, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2665.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.283546939263102, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.549738219895287, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.259635416666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7723017794927035, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9795785760698041, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8911196066511456, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0368095652658298, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8729216753912132, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0135589266841503, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.034423407917384, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.52743782076589, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "reportedPPUnits": [ "PP1", "PP2" ], "ppAssignmentNote": "Reported on both units; PP1 retained as primary. No extra minutes inferred.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -3.6293464449618114, "index": 96.37065355503819, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.274809160305345, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.770992366412216, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.87786259541985, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.412213740458014, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.748091603053433, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.916030534351145, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": 1.2269855088609916, "index": 101.22698550886099, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.213114754098362, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.245901639344262, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.524590163934427, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.967213114754098, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 46.39344262295082, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.6293464449618114, "zonePPFit": 1.2269855088609916, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0111229526065433, "attemptProjection": 2.057686306134267, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 10228.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.496969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 2.454545454545455, "onNet": 0.5201234409155201, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2665.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.002803398824941, "projectedAttempts": 1.4419104175879713, "onNet": 0.47664230456896184, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1631298674012216, "ppAdjusted": 0.5985474892419111, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.034404629370405, "baseline": 2.171875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478420", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.089392777622243, "adjustedSOG": 2.049952823810646, "reductionPct": 1.8876275554316924, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1631298674012216, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1631298674012216, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1248187551370648, "afterRecentZones": 1.1583925138318674, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1248187551370648, "adjusted": 1.1248187551370648, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9600625800028445, "oldChartFactor": 0.8911196066511456, "newChartFactor": 0.884026639595595, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.216489450272366, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8139534883720929, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5985474892419111, "afterPlayerForm": 0.590966789556363, "afterRecentDefense": 0.580357359890949, "afterRecentZones": 0.596581921098103, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5784515262534695, "adjusted": 0.5711253451534061, "playerFactor": 0.9873348400556329, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1.0368095652658298, "newChartFactor": 1.0293725521824708, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9275556881463803, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.049952823810646, "adjustedSOG": 2.049952823810646, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 78, "beforeSOG": 2.049952823810646, "adjustedSOG": 2.049952823810646 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 373.0, "goalExpected": 0.31256663355954994, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31256663355954994, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26843311958277527, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849803139179716, "modelSOG": 2.049952823810646, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 375.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1533680066087994, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.28023385981457, "btb": { "id": "8478420", "name": "Mikko Rantanen", "score": 70.28023385981457, "components": { "Goal model": 89.46015424164524, "SOG model": 80.20565552699229, "Unit attack": 78.57142857142857, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 93.10344827586206, "Shot quality": 84.5758354755784, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.68566001899335, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0920001178688867, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 13 } }, { "id": "8478421", "name": "A.J. Greer", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 12.246666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.843333333333334, "ppShare": 0.040154984149348365, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.19, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.167, "currentIXG": 0.21669999999999998, "priorTOI": 12.428846153846154, "priorPPTOI": 0.12606837606837606, "deploymentChange": -0.1821794871794875, "ppTOIChange": 0.06393162393162394, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021074", "date": "20260317", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020303", "date": "20251117", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020471", "date": "20241212", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.516666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12292772457389674, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.2099112659553868, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2099112659553868, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18934382441991282, "goalProbability": 0.18934382441991282, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7075990520690132, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.11905432029271, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.843333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.040154984149348365, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.18887818768058293, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0308143473586933, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 114.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2839.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.283415091219754, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.305084745762713, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.630128205128205, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024659855948824527, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.1194659170766, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021074", "date": "20260317", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020303", "date": "20251117", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020471", "date": "20241212", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020065", "date": "20241017", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "A.J. Greer", "Tim Washe", "Sam Colangelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 159, "fitPct": 14.063623674328099, "index": 114.0636236743281, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.286163522012579, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.30817610062893, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.588050314465406, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.028301886792454, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.279874213836479, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.063623674328099, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.07, "attemptProjection": 1.8442190624522665, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 7106.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.843333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.1, "onNet": 0.5279059677355736, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 114.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.18887818768058293, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9571095312261333, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9571095312261333, "baseline": 1.3333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478421", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7075990520690132, "adjustedSOG": 1.7075990520690132, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7075990520690132, "adjustedSOG": 1.7075990520690132, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 124, "beforeSOG": 1.7075990520690132, "adjustedSOG": 1.7075990520690132 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.2493025671335095, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24072646398332467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22065586621273336, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6712477991081961 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861739168760192, "modelSOG": 1.7075990520690132, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1201923076923077, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12292772457389674, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.86770655793792, "btb": { "id": "8478421", "name": "A.J. Greer", "score": 49.86770655793792, "components": { "Goal model": 67.60925449871465, "SOG model": 68.38046272493574, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 69.40874035989717, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.01750101750102, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.261944958159334, "unitPlayers": [ "A.J. Greer", "Tim Washe", "Sam Colangelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 175 } }, { "id": "8478427", "name": "Sebastian Aho", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.923076923076923, "priorSOG": 2.4683544303797467, "currentTOI": 19.866666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.302564102564103, "ppShare": 0.7252396166134185, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 38.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.074358974358974, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.773, "currentIXG": 0.44407692307692304, "priorTOI": 19.612447257383966, "priorPPTOI": 2.90126582278481, "deploymentChange": 0.25421940928270104, "ppTOIChange": 1.173093151574164, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14047135340758865, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 440.0, "goalExpected": 0.34547127180585624, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3297684536658452, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2921133321826275, "goalProbability": 0.2809097831394908, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1203549043136751, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.459371704090045, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.632999228989977, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.327879169288861, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.302564102564103, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7252396166134185, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.73897439310778, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.46153846153846156, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3178.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.725262609867394, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.209424083769633, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.777637130801688, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6566063390940534, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9999069982154003, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.072624262680173, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0127751516980446, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0844339774613536, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.680455138082257, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.904761904761905, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "William Carrier", "Sebastian Aho", "Andrei Svechnikov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 199, "fitPct": -0.003100059486655482, "index": 99.99689994051334, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.307903152124258, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.877569666514393, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.59570580173595, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.312928277752397, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.082686158063042, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.823206943809959, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": 2.420808756005769, "index": 102.42080875600577, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.169491525423727, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.51412429378531, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.15819209039548, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.457627118644066, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.70056497175141, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.003100059486655482, "zonePPFit": 2.420808756005769, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.940979336629807, "attemptProjection": 2.8911852041383437, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 10376.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.302564102564103, "projectedAttempts": 3.0769230769230775, "onNet": 0.5279224765412611, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 3178.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.73897439310778, "projectedAttempts": 1.6235949221172865, "onNet": 0.49348230912476726, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6633200671262491, "ppAdjusted": 0.7912237417193646, "other": 0.46153846153846156 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.9160822703840754, "baseline": 2.4683544303797467, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478427", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.736991134382344, "adjustedSOG": 2.644485703322629, "reductionPct": 3.3798220935995382, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6633200671262491, "afterPlayerForm": 1.595279088683567, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6025101882171748, "afterRecentZones": 1.661538536604953, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.600793789270621, "adjusted": 1.5353105561517397, "playerFactor": 0.9590932738758826, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 0.9999069982154003, "newChartFactor": 0.9978283044916803, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7539011848871003, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7912237417193646, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7912237417193646, "afterRecentDefense": 0.765148763684575, "afterRecentZones": 0.7911294033510774, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7650575342610162, "adjusted": 0.7650575342610162, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1.072624262680173, "newChartFactor": 1.0723598921709359, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5898672002910679, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.644485703322629, "adjustedSOG": 2.644485703322629, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 30, "beforeSOG": 2.644485703322629, "adjustedSOG": 2.459371704090045 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 62.0, "goalHistoryShots": 436.0, "goalExpected": 0.42307619969895793, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4139957154882526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3449712817810565, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5975065119376732 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285453084009787, "modelSOG": 2.459371704090045, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 79, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 63.0, "historyShots": 440.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1431818181818182, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14047135340758865, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 74.1025556725542, "btb": { "id": "8478427", "name": "Sebastian Aho", "score": 74.1025556725542, "components": { "Goal model": 93.83033419023137, "SOG model": 90.74550128534705, "Unit attack": 90.47619047619048, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.41379310344827, "Shot quality": 96.65809768637533, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 35.202991452991455, "Goalie H2H": 48.82308985615543 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.56947532060678, "unitPlayers": [ "William Carrier", "Sebastian Aho", "Andrei Svechnikov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 4 } }, { "id": "8478439", "name": "Travis Konecny", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 2.1948051948051948, "currentTOI": 16.81, "currentFiveTOI": 12.690000000000001, "ppShare": 0.582853486884197, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0366666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.077, "currentIXG": 0.21539999999999998, "priorTOI": 19.09004329004329, "priorPPTOI": 2.615367965367965, "deploymentChange": -2.2800432900432916, "ppTOIChange": 0.4212987012987015, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13732604996457787, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.2645698940035369, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26163412774854, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2324639991712001, "goalProbability": 0.23020738205103872, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22566171201613694, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9265819855138961, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.7281323877068555, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.903402854006586, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.690000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.582853486884197, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.843361896272964, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 911.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1563.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.442280447977094, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.34229909790615, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.514502164502163, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.614217473823385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9915987638869146, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0060439957459295, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.016523530189602, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9763674441620822, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.7281323877068555, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.903402854006586, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.7 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": -0.2800412037695139, "index": 99.71995879623049, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.23563218390805, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.396551724137929, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.764367816091955, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.408045977011493, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.856321839080458, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.339080459770114, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 0.2014665248643155, "index": 100.20146652486432, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.2800412037695139, "zonePPFit": 0.2014665248643155, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5822095000019252, "attemptProjection": 1.933505021540802, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3807.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.690000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.4000000000000004, "onNet": 0.484669434685404, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 911.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.843361896272964, "projectedAttempts": 1.123611726298866, "onNet": 0.4903284303848479, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.095236654502179, "ppAdjusted": 0.46262060626918466, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7578572607713636, "baseline": 2.1948051948051948, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478439", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.932636434384896, "adjustedSOG": 1.9265819855138961, "reductionPct": 0.3132740728303052, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.095236654502179, "afterPlayerForm": 1.095236654502179, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0941878347669949, "afterRecentZones": 1.092853474404409, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0918069368484313, "adjusted": 1.0918069368484313, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 0.9915987638869146, "newChartFactor": 0.9869492730116215, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.46262060626918466, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46262060626918466, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4559595758045989, "afterRecentZones": 0.46262060626918466, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4559595758045989, "adjusted": 0.4559595758045989, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.0060439957459295, "newChartFactor": 1.0060439957459295, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9265819855138961, "adjustedSOG": 1.9265819855138961, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.9265819855138961, "adjustedSOG": 1.9265819855138961 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.2247193466157952, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22056339531548655, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20125964351045067, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3326433483115343 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856613233528705, "modelSOG": 1.9265819855138961, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 365.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13972602739726028, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13732604996457787, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478443", "name": "Brandon Carlo", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 17.35151515151515, "currentFiveTOI": 15.246969696969698, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.418, "currentIXG": 0.038, "priorTOI": 19.365454545454543, "priorPPTOI": 0.03, "deploymentChange": -2.013939393939392, "ppTOIChange": -0.03, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021014", "date": "20260310", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020004", "date": "20251008", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021269", "date": "20250412", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020389", "date": "20241201", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020011", "date": "20241010", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.02720128234485917, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.022176227942938477, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02104824020929615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021932143023749785, "goalProbability": 0.020828272018977384, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11038710047724005, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8152640622521832, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.504223392626453, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.246969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.606259922885008, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 36.36363636363637, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.03272727272727, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008062577839928331, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8450402447243853, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021014", "date": "20260310", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020004", "date": "20251008", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021269", "date": "20250412", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020389", "date": "20241201", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020011", "date": "20241010", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Philip Broberg", "Brandon Carlo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 81, "fitPct": -5.165325175853823, "index": 94.83467482414618, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.31433998100665, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.096866096866097, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.578347578347579, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.419753086419753, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.9753086419753085, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.165325175853823, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5409090909090909, "attemptProjection": 0.5766377832648529, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 10063.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.246969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 1.5454545454545456, "onNet": 0.40233670915621716, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5587734370869719, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5587734370869719, "baseline": 1.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 55, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478443", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8152640622521832, "adjustedSOG": 0.8152640622521832, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8152640622521832, "adjustedSOG": 0.8152640622521832, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 341, "beforeSOG": 0.8152640622521832, "adjustedSOG": 0.8152640622521832 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.015597503935609729, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01533072314819776, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015476492845008119, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.026268699482806697 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.058003205862147925, "modelSOG": 0.8152640622521832, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 83, "2025": 55, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.006666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.02720128234485917, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.76239704756537, "btb": { "id": "8478443", "name": "Brandon Carlo", "score": 31.76239704756537, "components": { "Goal model": 1.0282776349614395, "SOG model": 12.596401028277635, "Unit attack": 59.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 6.683804627249358, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 53.27635327635328, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6649491268325916, "unitPlayers": [ "Philip Broberg", "Brandon Carlo" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 347 } }, { "id": "8478444", "name": "Brock Boeser", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "priorSOG": 2.2133333333333334, "currentTOI": 18.403846153846153, "currentFiveTOI": 13.471794871794872, "ppShare": 0.6933555740895191, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1974358974358976, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.23 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.883, "currentIXG": 0.14484615384615385, "priorTOI": 19.053333333333335, "priorPPTOI": 3.0433333333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.6494871794871813, "ppTOIChange": 0.15410256410256418, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14719715367172884, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 327.0, "goalExpected": 0.23659715101309994, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2343126628611692, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21069080361110615, "goalProbability": 0.20888557487702533, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1805228734080816, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6073486824395136, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7685572896840505, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.773857257417803, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.471794871794872, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6933555740895191, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.464474766267928, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.043378507998391, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2494.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8294454331201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.46330777656079, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.860666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8065805492409959, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0739887177150558, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.730183400683867, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.9234882764294525, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 154, "fitPct": 2.466290590501856, "index": 102.46629059050186, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.24196855775803, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.887218045112782, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.83458646616542, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.61244019138756, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.82638414217362, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5974025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": -11.525543994784982, "index": 88.47445600521502, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.528301886792454, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.566037735849054, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.811320754716983, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 52.075471698113205, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.018867924528302, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.466290590501856, "zonePPFit": -11.525543994784982, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.333381255941723, "attemptProjection": 1.3608094605679657, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 10508.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.471794871794872, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4743355914538822, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2494.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.464474766267928, "projectedAttempts": 0.6667794257452306, "onNet": 0.5079033120957152, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9837526848223198, "ppAdjusted": 0.2864195965094477, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3470953582548444, "baseline": 2.2133333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478444", "goals": 2, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.69359054828624, "adjustedSOG": 1.640151716775014, "reductionPct": 3.1553572122436147, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9837526848223198, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9233299252878874, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9837526848223199, "afterRecentZones": 0.9837526848223199, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9837526848223199, "adjusted": 0.9233299252878875, "playerFactor": 0.9385793193079359, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0739887177150558, "newChartFactor": 1.0739887177150558, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.26666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6098901098901098, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4037209798950263, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2864195965094477, "afterPlayerForm": 0.25777763685850297, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2864195965094477, "afterRecentZones": 0.2864195965094477, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2864195965094477, "adjusted": 0.25777763685850297, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.3388586956521739, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.640151716775014, "adjustedSOG": 1.6073486824395136, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 142, "beforeSOG": 1.6073486824395136, "adjustedSOG": 1.6073486824395136 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.23317426834064692, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23831371407003787, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20798446173654433, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.40600786618966156 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853184617828212, "modelSOG": 1.6073486824395136, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 75, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 327.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1529051987767584, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14719715367172884, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.1014886062101, "btb": { "id": "8478444", "name": "Brock Boeser", "score": 53.1014886062101, "components": { "Goal model": 75.57840616966581, "SOG model": 63.753213367609256, "Unit attack": 14.285714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.48275862068966, "Shot quality": 43.18766066838046, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 67.89006200770908, "Goalie H2H": 54.19024045261669 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0387563450233466, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 142 } }, { "id": "8478449", "name": "Roope Hintz", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 2.3773584905660377, "currentTOI": 16.828787878787878, "currentFiveTOI": 12.787878787878787, "ppShare": 0.6626129256428075, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8893939393939396, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.874, "currentIXG": 0.3521818181818182, "priorTOI": 17.341509433962266, "priorPPTOI": 2.914779874213836, "deploymentChange": -0.5127215551743873, "ppTOIChange": -0.025385934819896594, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1487846160430406, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 309.0, "goalExpected": 0.30545906142099183, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30545906142099183, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2632149328542231, "goalProbability": 0.2632149328542231, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0530285290559087, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.971563981042654, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.326691137912952, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.787878787878787, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6626129256428075, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.864294964937772, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 0.988456448075644, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1907.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.742884942836293, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.98209084043586, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.927672955974842, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6034334649458903, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894704201046217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8980959290733379, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9679133771336069, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9462077478029821, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.670035437721486, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.829134720700985, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 110, "fitPct": -3.3968023642220686, "index": 96.60319763577793, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.162055335968377, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.09881422924901, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.1501976284585, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.39920948616601, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.735177865612647, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -1.0695540955464367, "index": 98.93044590445356, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.7692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.80769230769231, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.84615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.038461538461538, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.3968023642220686, "zonePPFit": -1.0695540955464367, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.866175507830294, "attemptProjection": 1.9475414608807402, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8440.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.787878787878787, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.506577216521968, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1907.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.864294964937772, "projectedAttempts": 1.0814328131909785, "onNet": 0.516519493001742, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.114560657251553, "ppAdjusted": 0.5195705543766913, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9068584843555172, "baseline": 2.3773584905660377, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478449", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.0950584868397253, "adjustedSOG": 2.0530285290559087, "reductionPct": 2.0061472291981852, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.114560657251553, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1061741994311696, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0958268256092816, "afterRecentZones": 1.114560657251553, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0958268256092816, "adjusted": 1.0875813296000476, "playerFactor": 0.9924755483106106, "defenseFactor": 0.9673428388564926, "oldChartFactor": 0.8980959290733379, "newChartFactor": 0.8902788723224766, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9529599777654253, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8478682170542635, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5195705543766913, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4914348810526321, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5037805698542714, "afterRecentZones": 0.5195705543766913, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5037805698542714, "adjusted": 0.4764999523885022, "playerFactor": 0.9458482142857143, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.9679133771336069, "newChartFactor": 0.9679133771336069, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6112179487179488, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0530285290559087, "adjustedSOG": 2.0530285290559087, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 77, "beforeSOG": 2.0530285290559087, "adjustedSOG": 2.0530285290559087 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.31501384151907075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31501384151907075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27022122704765505, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852907961603613, "modelSOG": 2.0530285290559087, "historyGames": 140, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 53, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 309.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1553398058252427, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1487846160430406, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.68000759511332, "btb": { "id": "8478449", "name": "Roope Hintz", "score": 67.68000759511332, "components": { "Goal model": 88.17480719794345, "SOG model": 80.46272493573265, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 93.10344827586206, "Shot quality": 90.48843187660668, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.08481262327416, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4450000464940294, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 32 } }, { "id": "8478450", "name": "Parker Wotherspoon", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.875, "currentTOI": 18.26111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 16.116666666666667, "ppShare": 0.022423664122137404, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13055555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.244, "currentIXG": 0.04066666666666666, "priorTOI": 20.171666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.05708333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.9105555555555576, "ppTOIChange": 0.07347222222222223, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021138", "date": "20260326", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020877", "date": "20260202", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020537", "date": "20251218", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021041", "date": "20250313", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020761", "date": "20250123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.044700188150715754, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.03613160539486812, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03630734034423443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0354866500301977, "goalProbability": 0.035656133842367016, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.016948381216931596, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8083099174670828, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1023784901758016, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022423664122137404, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11288733729692699, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 47.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2096.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.550126065554088, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.138686131386862, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.352083333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01295840023623646, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8372937035122964, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.1023784901758016, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021138", "date": "20260326", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020877", "date": "20260202", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020537", "date": "20251218", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021041", "date": "20250313", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020761", "date": "20250123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020723", "date": "20250118", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020226", "date": "20241109", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": -5.423543216256789, "index": 94.57645678374321, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.50574712643677, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.88505747126437, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.77011494252874, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.45977011494252873, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.423543216256789, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7083333333333335, "attemptProjection": 0.8321362086627034, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5802.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.116666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.39613586529311984, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 47.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.11288733729692699, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7702347709980184, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7702347709980184, "baseline": 0.875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478450", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8121408625988111, "adjustedSOG": 0.8083099174670828, "reductionPct": 0.4717094420627288, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7702347709980184, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7702347709980184, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7638498624451381, "afterRecentZones": 0.7702347709980184, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.763849862445138, "adjusted": 0.763849862445138, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.8372937035122964, "newChartFactor": 0.8372937035122964, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1505246633066182, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8083099174670828, "adjustedSOG": 0.8083099174670828, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8083099174670828, "adjustedSOG": 0.8083099174670828 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.03706190554300143, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03745738606219786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03638351969887473, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03810161987276156 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057893412050067504, "modelSOG": 0.8083099174670828, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 80, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 119.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03361344537815126, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.044700188150715754, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478460", "name": "Zach Werenski", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 3.466666666666667, "currentTOI": 29.00185185185185, "currentFiveTOI": 21.574074074074073, "ppShare": 0.7711771177117712, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.894444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.434, "currentIXG": 0.15933333333333333, "priorTOI": 26.61422222222222, "priorPPTOI": 2.888, "deploymentChange": 2.387629629629629, "ppTOIChange": 1.006444444444444, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 25.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 31.5 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07409767870211938, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 585.0, "goalExpected": 0.2189971111790514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21637160934253336, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19667596119041364, "goalProbability": 0.19456406126579076, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21118999246228787, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.9555191878472105, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.944206008583691, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.69472182596291, "Current_5v5_Min": 21.574074074074073, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7711771177117712, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.331939155454007, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2103.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1156661786237185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.634349030470915, "Prior_5v5_Min": 21.24888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6667429965745393, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1541335434176956, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8113613430508022, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.46227826458645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.024602026049203, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 25.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 31.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 27.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Werenski", "Damon Severson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 287, "fitPct": 5.137784780589854, "index": 105.13778478058985, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.84758907496909, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 135 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.9024390243902447, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.329212093964258, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.7469933685512, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.3375295043273, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8362369337979095, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": -6.287955231639927, "index": 93.71204476836007, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.86363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.136363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636362, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.137784780589854, "zonePPFit": -6.287955231639927, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.2182110518744182, "attemptProjection": 3.118661062444944, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 11650.0, "expectedMinutes": 21.574074074074073, "projectedAttempts": 4.999999999999999, "onNet": 0.37849010014175316, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2103.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.331939155454007, "projectedAttempts": 1.7303037996107307, "onNet": 0.4548611111111111, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.0449638911952794, "ppAdjusted": 0.7901388326310681, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.1684360571596812, "baseline": 3.466666666666667, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478460", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.2877283009624754, "adjustedSOG": 3.2428343074909045, "reductionPct": 1.3655019320917838, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.0449638911952794, "afterPlayerForm": 2.0449638911952794, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9844759951651971, "afterRecentZones": 2.0449638911952794, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9844759951651971, "adjusted": 1.9844759951651971, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.1541335434176956, "newChartFactor": 1.1541335434176956, "playerRecentAttempts": 30.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 101.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.276152919268266, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7901388326310681, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7758034062085324, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7901388326310681, "afterRecentZones": 0.7901388326310681, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7901388326310681, "adjusted": 0.7758034062085324, "playerFactor": 0.9818570789961044, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8113613430508022, "newChartFactor": 0.7870466831543057, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 22.283333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8988139758521209, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.2428343074909045, "adjustedSOG": 3.1779776213410864, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 14, "beforeSOG": 3.1779776213410864, "adjustedSOG": 2.9555191878472105 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 582.0, "goalExpected": 0.19068915293865182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1939691583926714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17361057104445887, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27061213615700574 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057569099109517755, "modelSOG": 2.9555191878472105, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 585.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07409767870211938, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.70401546495304, "btb": { "id": "8478460", "name": "Zach Werenski", "score": 56.70401546495304, "components": { "Goal model": 70.95115681233933, "SOG model": 96.65809768637533, "Unit attack": 57.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.18508997429306, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 64.25339366515837, "Goalie H2H": 53.95171096056974 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6517871665748154, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Werenski", "Damon Severson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 107 } }, { "id": "8478465", "name": "Guillaume Brisebois", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.658333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.758333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.154, "currentIXG": 0.077, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055080071512800026, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.057480847140277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056925834902417746, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05586002680628166, "goalProbability": 0.05533587212423049, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05241546820511714, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0435870099936064, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.6541459957476965, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.758333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 240.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1074785033338175, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0254430586424235, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.651474530831099, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 3.582616777793916, "index": 103.58261677779392, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 66.66666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.582616777793916, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5381645879636352, "attemptProjection": 0.681051605820114, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1411.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.758333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.4331426323295576, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1096080968918747, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1096080968918747, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478465", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1096080968918747, "adjustedSOG": 1.0648847040751086, "reductionPct": 4.030557540273982, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1096080968918747, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1096080968918747, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1096080968918747, "afterRecentZones": 1.0648847040751086, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0648847040751086, "adjusted": 1.0648847040751086, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1074785033338175, "newChartFactor": 1.0430768176776746, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 23.516666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0648847040751086, "adjustedSOG": 1.0435870099936064, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0435870099936064, "adjustedSOG": 1.0435870099936064 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.07425773893485665, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07589447021725283, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07156763016903239, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15183513977184843 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783407508844003, "modelSOG": 1.0435870099936064, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2024": 3, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055080071512800026, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478468", "name": "Jeremy Lauzon", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "priorSOG": 1.0735294117647058, "currentTOI": 17.378205128205128, "currentFiveTOI": 15.673076923076923, "ppShare": 0.008758371973209686, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04358974358974359, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.23 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.512, "currentIXG": 0.039384615384615386, "priorTOI": 17.180882352941175, "priorPPTOI": 0.02107843137254902, "deploymentChange": 0.19732277526395237, "ppTOIChange": 0.022511312217194566, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.55 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03175487357966634, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.03417227761526189, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03433848289207759, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.033594999653399495, "goalProbability": 0.03375560791665803, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.01606082632585326, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0761270243929892, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.711656441717792, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.673076923076923, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008758371973209686, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04409222711000145, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.048305871999218, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.038970588235294, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004616043618601163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8620726288065889, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeremy Lauzon", "Noah Hanifin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": -4.597579039780371, "index": 95.40242096021963, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.92478632478633, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 77 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.0512820512820515, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.735042735042735, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.4256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.735042735042735, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.597579039780371, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0461538461538462, "attemptProjection": 1.1918192972799728, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 12225.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.673076923076923, "projectedAttempts": 3.076923076923077, "onNet": 0.39951732792740613, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 34.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04409222711000145, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1189865717169094, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1189865717169094, "baseline": 1.0735294117647058, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478468", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.100803707736028, "adjustedSOG": 1.0761270243929892, "reductionPct": 2.241696968280582, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1189865717169094, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0867399617867814, "afterRecentDefense": 1.109841846195447, "afterRecentZones": 1.1189865717169094, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.109841846195447, "adjusted": 1.0778587661451782, "playerFactor": 0.9711823083983478, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.8620726288065889, "newChartFactor": 0.8620726288065889, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.26666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8363467552775606, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0761270243929892, "adjustedSOG": 1.0761270243929892, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 282, "beforeSOG": 1.0761270243929892, "adjustedSOG": 1.0761270243929892 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.04325505834068007, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04371662481115192, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04233290206694084, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.044192502554707414 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05795542946048597, "modelSOG": 1.0761270243929892, "historyGames": 109, "seasonGames": { "2024": 28, "2025": 68, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.008771929824561403, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03175487357966634, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.068382290711224, "btb": { "id": "8478468", "name": "Jeremy Lauzon", "score": 28.068382290711224, "components": { "Goal model": 4.627249357326479, "SOG model": 27.763496143958868, "Unit attack": 37.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 2.3136246786632393, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 49.65034965034965, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.376976164209342, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeremy Lauzon", "Noah Hanifin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 371 } }, { "id": "8478469", "name": "Thomas Chabot", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 1.736842105263158, "currentTOI": 25.327777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 18.631481481481483, "ppShare": 0.4501784243755147, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 57, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0370370370370368, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.034, "currentIXG": 0.11488888888888889, "priorTOI": 22.57894736842105, "priorPPTOI": 2.335964912280702, "deploymentChange": 2.7488304093567244, "ppTOIChange": 0.701072124756335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 26.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.057388284986235306, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.09758680513223657, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09952527953912363, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09297639616544053, "goalProbability": 0.09473293515493535, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.17565389894948213, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7004656116774173, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.293807772587218, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.631481481481483, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4501784243755147, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.144960713791348, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.106056598783391, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.561772437101014, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.68888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47279347096998803, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7965064560303873, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.293807772587218, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 26.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": -6.783118132320425, "index": 93.21688186767958, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.89432587194169, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.715252472670484, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.299323269130661, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.197293076522644, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.8318584070796464, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0619469026548674, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -14.059136659281094, "index": 85.9408633407189, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.05714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.17142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.17142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.783118132320425, "zonePPFit": -14.059136659281094, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.689070788492625, "attemptProjection": 1.843551612637167, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10061.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.631481481481483, "projectedAttempts": 3.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.3994569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1640.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.144960713791348, "projectedAttempts": 0.8632158970135912, "onNet": 0.42805100182149364, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.194176493361888, "ppAdjusted": 0.34991248498078587, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.766311200564896, "baseline": 1.736842105263158, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 57, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478469", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7545235624442008, "adjustedSOG": 1.7351689915075688, "reductionPct": 1.1031240247164065, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.194176493361888, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1639319306503184, "afterRecentDefense": 1.194176493361888, "afterRecentZones": 1.194176493361888, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.194176493361888, "adjusted": 1.1639319306503184, "playerFactor": 0.9746732891832229, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7965064560303873, "newChartFactor": 0.7856520011691368, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 91.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.85991452991453, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.34991248498078587, "afterPlayerForm": 0.34991248498078587, "afterRecentDefense": 0.34789942946463526, "afterRecentZones": 0.34991248498078587, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.34789942946463526, "adjusted": 0.34789942946463526, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.068752036493972, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7351689915075688, "adjustedSOG": 1.7004656116774173, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.7004656116774173, "adjustedSOG": 1.7004656116774173 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.11586862070305308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11210141417317927, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10940777900837281, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.33613723469631956 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783149139535418, "modelSOG": 1.7004656116774173, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 57, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 297.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05723905723905724, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.057388284986235306, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478474", "name": "Lawson Crouse", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.7407407407407407, "currentTOI": 14.584722222222224, "currentFiveTOI": 12.422222222222222, "ppShare": 0.004103967168262654, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.020833333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.607, "currentIXG": 0.21725000000000003, "priorTOI": 16.596913580246913, "priorPPTOI": 0.9962962962962963, "deploymentChange": -2.0121913580246886, "ppTOIChange": -0.975462962962963, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12917099313975505, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 286.0, "goalExpected": 0.1954987828987427, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18416568239888523, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.177575655462723, "goalProbability": 0.16820202187506306, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9373633587659941, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5134882696707694, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.2450805008944545, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.422222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004103967168262654, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02162365393384545, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9523162012055845, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.964746345657781, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.691449814126394, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.443621399176955, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20920589395732803, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9140064134656756, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.450523864959255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Clayton Keller", "Nick Schmaltz", "Lawson Crouse" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": -2.866452884477482, "index": 97.13354711552252, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.82162162162162, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.945945945945947, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.16756756756756, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.691891891891892, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.275675675675677, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.097297297297297, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.866452884477482, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3583333333333332, "attemptProjection": 1.365639911248244, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8944.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.422222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5249939628109153, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02162365393384545, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2786532889574553, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3619866222907886, "baseline": 1.7407407407407407, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478474", "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.4, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5134882696707694, "adjustedSOG": 1.5134882696707694, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5134882696707694, "adjustedSOG": 1.5134882696707694, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 162, "beforeSOG": 1.5134882696707694, "adjustedSOG": 1.5134882696707694 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 284.0, "goalExpected": 0.22182188184124502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22182188184124502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19894196538962072, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286000335194545, "modelSOG": 1.5134882696707694, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 37.0, "historyShots": 286.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12937062937062938, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12917099313975505, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.05571326504667, "btb": { "id": "8478474", "name": "Lawson Crouse", "score": 56.05571326504667, "components": { "Goal model": 64.26735218508998, "SOG model": 58.61182519280206, "Unit attack": 51.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 69.9228791773779, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 62.96296296296296, "Goalie H2H": 53.82538253825383 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4646084279659064, "unitPlayers": [ "Clayton Keller", "Nick Schmaltz", "Lawson Crouse" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 114 } }, { "id": "8478476", "name": "Kyle Capobianco", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "currentTOI": 10.995833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.879166666666666, "ppShare": 0.005141388174807198, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 33, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.067, "currentIXG": 0.01675, "priorTOI": 12.133333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.3883838383838384, "deploymentChange": -1.1374999999999993, "ppTOIChange": -0.3717171717171717, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06430540415749708, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 21.0, "goalExpected": 0.038517936418923, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038517936418923, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03778555409635836, "goalProbability": 0.03778555409635836, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5989844387663703, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.136346227499042, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.879166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005141388174807198, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.022224818882916567, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 778.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8998523100206691, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8563220395434787, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1052631578947367, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -3.338256332644363, "index": 96.66174366735564, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.338256332644363, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6422415296576091, "attemptProjection": 0.6271005389575649, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2611.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.879166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.40274665813099214, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.022224818882916567, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.634671034307587, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.634671034307587, "baseline": 0.5454545454545454, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 33, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478476", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5989844387663703, "adjustedSOG": 0.5989844387663703, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.634671034307587, "afterPlayerForm": 0.634671034307587, "afterRecentDefense": 0.634671034307587, "afterRecentZones": 0.634671034307587, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.634671034307587, "adjusted": 0.634671034307587, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8998523100206691, "newChartFactor": 0.8998523100206691, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 43.516666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5989844387663703, "adjustedSOG": 0.5989844387663703, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 375, "beforeSOG": 0.5989844387663703, "adjustedSOG": 0.5989844387663703 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.026689293004617254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026689293004617254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.026336281340439634, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057809539030571476, "modelSOG": 0.5989844387663703, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 33, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 21.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09523809523809523, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06430540415749708, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 34.14939887304926, "btb": { "id": "8478476", "name": "Kyle Capobianco", "score": 34.14939887304926, "components": { "Goal model": 6.683804627249358, "SOG model": 3.8560411311053984, "Unit attack": 75.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 24.93573264781491, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.841750841750844, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0460970341600193, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 320 } }, { "id": "8478483", "name": "Mitch Marner", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.037037037037037, "currentTOI": 19.71060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 13.72121212121212, "ppShare": 0.7293992557150452, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.157575757575757, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.023, "currentIXG": 0.27481818181818185, "priorTOI": 19.95761316872428, "priorPPTOI": 3.4421810699588478, "deploymentChange": -0.24700710811821835, "ppTOIChange": 0.7153946876169095, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021059", "date": "20250315", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020780", "date": "20250125", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020245", "date": "20241112", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1413196594270369, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 366.0, "goalExpected": 0.30256886609025263, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30404048418696045, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26108239985940906, "goalProbability": 0.2621690046420195, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1086604782610412, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.1410245914615187, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.757950530035336, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.183673469387756, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.72121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7293992557150452, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.672010932537248, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9927827949489821, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2744.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.813293763365775, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.177416462430509, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.143827160493828, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7538159591299687, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9433368775474039, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8631279035105963, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8973537386995516, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8983590440951642, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.757950530035336, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.183673469387756, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021059", "date": "20250315", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020780", "date": "20250125", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020245", "date": "20241112", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Howden", "William Karlsson", "Mitch Marner" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": -4.562403216313456, "index": 95.43759678368654, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.185714285714287, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.62857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.7, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.157142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.542857142857144, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.785714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -3.421542043348282, "index": 96.57845795665172, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 49.48717948717949, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.512820512820513, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.48717948717949, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.562403216313456, "zonePPFit": -3.421542043348282, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1821886810371898, "attemptProjection": 2.4421495113225737, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 9056.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.72121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 2.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.5127988408596957, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2744.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.672010932537248, "projectedAttempts": 1.3649603320655952, "onNet": 0.48445361345599225, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3799750011904086, "ppAdjusted": 0.5685577313531094, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.3121690961798818, "baseline": 2.037037037037037, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478483", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.202116272522744, "adjustedSOG": 2.1410245914615187, "reductionPct": 2.7742259490793786, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3799750011904086, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3263414797552162, "afterRecentDefense": 1.342252969112692, "afterRecentZones": 1.3799750011904086, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.342252969112692, "adjusted": 1.2900855361314745, "playerFactor": 0.9611344253418167, "defenseFactor": 0.9478369959776317, "oldChartFactor": 0.8631279035105963, "newChartFactor": 0.859474956946936, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.11666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7472933720623185, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.753604198526345, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5685577313531094, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5588786980301618, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5685577313531094, "afterRecentZones": 0.5662677775018192, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5662677775018192, "adjusted": 0.556627727976668, "playerFactor": 0.9829761644434726, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8973537386995516, "newChartFactor": 0.889214171571264, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9024619432437512, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1410245914615187, "adjustedSOG": 2.1410245914615187, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 69, "beforeSOG": 2.1410245914615187, "adjustedSOG": 2.1410245914615187 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 366.0, "goalExpected": 0.35940725660995526, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.363242422836963, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30191000831163106, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26721637880862126 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854961292999198, "modelSOG": 2.1410245914615187, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 366.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1448087431693989, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1413196594270369, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.86986299621196, "btb": { "id": "8478483", "name": "Mitch Marner", "score": 64.86986299621196, "components": { "Goal model": 87.66066838046272, "SOG model": 82.51928020565553, "Unit attack": 67.85714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 86.20689655172414, "Shot quality": 81.23393316195373, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 35.70750237416904, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8452987156591543, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Howden", "William Karlsson", "Mitch Marner" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 54 } }, { "id": "8478493", "name": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 3.3076923076923075, "priorSOG": 2.7714285714285714, "currentTOI": 20.265384615384615, "currentFiveTOI": 14.276923076923076, "ppShare": 0.6895636792452831, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 43.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9987179487179487, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.31 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 8.576, "currentIXG": 0.6596923076923077, "priorTOI": 19.079047619047618, "priorPPTOI": 3.2883333333333336, "deploymentChange": 1.1863369963369976, "ppTOIChange": -0.28961538461538483, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10245538197903002, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 377.0, "goalExpected": 0.2745826139495098, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.285883876121233, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24011077579429674, "goalProbability": 0.24865013945868528, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8539363664388538, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.680021377556425, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.758620689655173, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.930312099187688, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.276923076923076, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6895636792452831, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.904823834487381, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6153846153846154, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0114213881458354, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2339.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.660679506600303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.251104192310477, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.202857142857143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6232366423976269, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9599248429939258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7903905799328328, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9244714868352397, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9699407094052326, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.875214000380445, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.023738872403563, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 37, "priorAttempts": 173, "fitPct": -6.986980668905574, "index": 93.01301933109443, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.426027183252618, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.269957819090768, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.38931416966099, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.410873301046712, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.422902671457585, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0809248554913293, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": -2.5176171054920076, "index": 97.48238289450799, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.98761609907121, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.14551083591332, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.41486068111455, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.510835913312693, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.986980668905574, "zonePPFit": -2.5176171054920076, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9796365679737193, "attemptProjection": 3.2357968508590895, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 11136.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.276923076923076, "projectedAttempts": 3.7692307692307683, "onNet": 0.5001315443304394, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 2339.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.904823834487381, "projectedAttempts": 1.5648046308055155, "onNet": 0.5214677262832114, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6358173731234196, "ppAdjusted": 0.8565147209083697, "other": 0.6153846153846154 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.1077167094164047, "baseline": 2.7714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478493", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.9732014542212712, "adjustedSOG": 2.9405545068646317, "reductionPct": 1.0980402054589389, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6358173731234196, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6358173731234196, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6246921615483658, "afterRecentZones": 1.6358173731234196, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6246921615483658, "adjusted": 1.6246921615483658, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9869299981376292, "oldChartFactor": 0.7903905799328328, "newChartFactor": 0.78568983183505, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.38333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.34908912860222, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9395448378343455, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.8565147209083697, "afterPlayerForm": 0.813228353555691, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8565147209083697, "afterRecentZones": 0.8565147209083697, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8565147209083697, "adjusted": 0.813228353555691, "playerFactor": 0.9494622026965611, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9244714868352397, "newChartFactor": 0.9244714868352397, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6777745580991017, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.9405545068646317, "adjustedSOG": 2.881743416727339, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 21, "beforeSOG": 2.881743416727339, "adjustedSOG": 2.680021377556425 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 372.0, "goalExpected": 0.3085568607963981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3085568607963981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2654938135949551, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12871217203997315, "modelSOG": 2.680021377556425, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 46, "2025": 70, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 377.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09549071618037135, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10245538197903002, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.49135515336997, "btb": { "id": "8478493", "name": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "score": 61.49135515336997, "components": { "Goal model": 83.03341902313625, "SOG model": 94.8586118251928, "Unit attack": 98.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 37.93103448275862, "Shot quality": 99.74293059125964, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 39.78428978428978, "Goalie H2H": 45.33239038189533 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.326603743094937, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 73 } }, { "id": "8478498", "name": "Jake DeBrusk", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 2.7037037037037037, "currentTOI": 15.98030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 12.40151515151515, "ppShare": 0.6785067053280174, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8363636363636364, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.402, "currentIXG": 0.3092727272727273, "priorTOI": 16.86440329218107, "priorPPTOI": 2.8518518518518516, "deploymentChange": -0.8841002618780394, "ppTOIChange": -0.015488215488215218, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13033024100342697, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 413.0, "goalExpected": 0.28947607108704626, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2866810050778651, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2513442927861943, "goalProbability": 0.24924882354317338, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20954692430209254, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.221096722129399, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.0372632864996945, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.538461538461538, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.40151515151515, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6785067053280174, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.390279745625886, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9709979127741588, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1872.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2759.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.298805314924348, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.181818181818183, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.280041152263374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7558318399848689, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8822400646366712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0992461526415223, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.935259927822669, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9697989967580687, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.740895040989114, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.933701657458563, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": 3.308205088050741, "index": 103.30820508805074, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.860597439544808, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.072546230440969, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.33997155049787, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.901849217638695, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.149359886201992, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6756756756756763, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": -2.1580024059110343, "index": 97.84199759408897, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.9298245614035086, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.87719298245614, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 64.91228070175438, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.192982456140351, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.087719298245614, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.308205088050741, "zonePPFit": -2.1580024059110343, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.055706156501282, "attemptProjection": 2.0654363368765445, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8185.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.40151515151515, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.5293556283971619, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1872.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.390279745625886, "projectedAttempts": 1.3039537483176484, "onNet": 0.5495946179058134, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3863073219710447, "ppAdjusted": 0.5833548338087777, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0605712466889132, "baseline": 2.7037037037037037, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478498", "goals": 2, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.15384615384615385, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.3178242294948292, "adjustedSOG": 2.266425226662652, "reductionPct": 2.2175539533202504, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3863073219710447, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3737799294655877, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3536835836811332, "afterRecentZones": 1.3863073219710447, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3536835836811334, "adjusted": 1.3414509962077756, "playerFactor": 0.990963480963481, "defenseFactor": 0.9764671672919341, "oldChartFactor": 1.0992461526415223, "newChartFactor": 1.0992461526415223, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9393322900365154, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8885472191050638, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5833548338087777, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5425461548517511, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5833548338087777, "afterRecentZones": 0.5833548338087777, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5833548338087777, "adjusted": 0.5425461548517511, "playerFactor": 0.9300448430493273, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.935259927822669, "newChartFactor": 0.935259927822669, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5294117647058824, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.266425226662652, "adjustedSOG": 2.221096722129399, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 60, "beforeSOG": 2.221096722129399, "adjustedSOG": 2.221096722129399 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 413.0, "goalExpected": 0.2810548660511835, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28724965864699886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24501308880668754, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.46625307114811776 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859413634758035, "modelSOG": 2.221096722129399, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 413.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13075060532687652, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13033024100342697, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.478710503883384, "btb": { "id": "8478498", "name": "Jake DeBrusk", "score": 59.478710503883384, "components": { "Goal model": 84.83290488431876, "SOG model": 84.83290488431876, "Unit attack": 14.285714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.48275862068966, "Shot quality": 85.08997429305913, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 63.105413105413106, "Goalie H2H": 54.188275970454185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0387563450233466, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 86 } }, { "id": "8478502", "name": "Dennis Gilbert", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 0.25, "currentTOI": 9.754166666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 9.145833333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 8, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.185, "currentIXG": 0.04625, "priorTOI": 12.6875, "priorPPTOI": 0.00625, "deploymentChange": -2.9333333333333336, "ppTOIChange": -0.00625, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021058", "date": "20260315", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06055400840029218, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.02042213575240835, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.020049028195898346, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020215016274986043, "goalProbability": 0.019849382887754993, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.03656333872310499, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.3372548951244953, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6400911161731206, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.145833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1252.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.122907383789299, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.04778156996587, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021058", "date": "20260315", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 4.096912792976639, "index": 104.09691279297664, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.096912792976639, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2875, "attemptProjection": 0.5262921602873991, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2195.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.145833333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.25, "onNet": 0.38102835479030095, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.40689608014369955, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.40689608014369955, "baseline": 0.25, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 8, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478502", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.3441376480862197, "adjustedSOG": 0.3441376480862197, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.40689608014369955, "afterPlayerForm": 0.40689608014369955, "afterRecentDefense": 0.40689608014369955, "afterRecentZones": 0.40689608014369955, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.40689608014369955, "adjusted": 0.40689608014369955, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.122907383789299, "newChartFactor": 1.122907383789299, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 36.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.3441376480862197, "adjustedSOG": 0.3372548951244953, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.3372548951244953, "adjustedSOG": 0.3372548951244953 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.020001965331955394, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019975573384101695, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01980325310712696, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.002586964280399187 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782048940832724, "modelSOG": 0.3372548951244953, "historyGames": 41, "seasonGames": { "2024": 29, "2025": 8, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06055400840029218, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478507", "name": "John Marino", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 0.6875, "currentTOI": 20.375925925925927, "currentFiveTOI": 18.037037037037038, "ppShare": 0.31976744186046513, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7314814814814816, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49, "currentIXG": 0.05444444444444444, "priorTOI": 20.202083333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.06999999999999999, "deploymentChange": 0.17384259259259238, "ppTOIChange": 1.6614814814814816, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.75 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06621263276113418, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.04991722058722841, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.047023510103712904, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04869183002690775, "goalProbability": 0.04593503283962548, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.27567971872822716, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7538927015227986, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.217659137577002, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.7005347593582885, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.037037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31976744186046513, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6848430356787913, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 935.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0960454608971073, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.890833333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014698852772466539, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9242406031772598, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9331704640775231, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.217659137577002, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.7005347593582885, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.75 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -2.5253132274246752, "index": 97.47468677257532, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.56149732620321, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.807486631016042, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.16042780748663, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.588235294117648, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 2 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5253132274246752, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8342372909717618, "attemptProjection": 0.7620717141042337, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9740.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.037037037037038, "projectedAttempts": 1.888888888888889, "onNet": 0.3874113360218888, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 935.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6848430356787913, "projectedAttempts": 0.21623653933845452, "onNet": 0.4444444444444444, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.64619011079569, "ppAdjusted": 0.15196439174230772, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7981545025379977, "baseline": 0.6875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478507", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7538927015227986, "adjustedSOG": 0.7538927015227986, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7538927015227986, "adjustedSOG": 0.7538927015227986, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7538927015227986, "adjustedSOG": 0.7538927015227986 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.057177989390941056, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057177989390941056, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0555740433949819, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057790381228988955, "modelSOG": 0.7538927015227986, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 93.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07526881720430108, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06621263276113418, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478508", "name": "Yakov Trenin", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.1538461538461537, "priorSOG": 1.1951219512195121, "currentTOI": 13.029487179487178, "currentFiveTOI": 11.133333333333333, "ppShare": 0.002063679245283019, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008974358974358974, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.15 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.412, "currentIXG": 0.18553846153846154, "priorTOI": 13.28170731707317, "priorPPTOI": 0.08800813008130082, "deploymentChange": -0.2522201375859918, "ppTOIChange": -0.07903377110694185, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08681604834604618, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.09162292130118693, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09539393447521942, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08755085017842618, "goalProbability": 0.09098522833051821, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3434378152092035, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0553684836699857, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.803777061262092, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002063679245283019, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.00869335906003064, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0307968238292269, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.757797016793575, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.628175519630485, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.691463414634146, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016680149466466346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8122707920070684, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.856588662245025, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": -6.2576402664310535, "index": 93.74235973356895, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.3991683991684, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.257796257796258, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.72557172557173, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.214137214137214, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.744282744282742, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6590436590436592, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.2576402664310535, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9923076923076923, "attemptProjection": 1.115107492577068, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8684.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.133333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.384615384615384, "onNet": 0.4820926537098154, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.00869335906003064, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9767845155193033, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0537075924423802, "baseline": 1.1951219512195121, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478508", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.110273335953233, "adjustedSOG": 1.0769066159897813, "reductionPct": 3.0052707637803877, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9767845155193033, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9288628597462062, "afterRecentDefense": 0.968698254351759, "afterRecentZones": 0.9767845155193033, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.968698254351759, "adjusted": 0.9211733155802172, "playerFactor": 0.950939378121059, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.8122707920070684, "newChartFactor": 0.808026417801234, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.38333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6624393313817666, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.016666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0769066159897813, "adjustedSOG": 1.0553684836699857, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 292, "beforeSOG": 1.0553684836699857, "adjustedSOG": 1.0553684836699857 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 197.0, "goalExpected": 0.10626964783164487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10626964783164487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1008178471345344, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12871182407121767, "modelSOG": 1.0553684836699857, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 198.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06565656565656566, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08681604834604618, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.94306045123752, "btb": { "id": "8478508", "name": "Yakov Trenin", "score": 34.94306045123752, "components": { "Goal model": 29.82005141388175, "SOG model": 25.19280205655527, "Unit attack": 60.714285714285715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 59.12596401028278, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 31.784188034188034, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.675871766303257, "unitPlayers": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 313 } }, { "id": "8478542", "name": "Evan Rodrigues", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 2.318840579710145, "currentTOI": 15.368181818181819, "currentFiveTOI": 11.977272727272727, "ppShare": 0.3424700693131695, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.646969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.9500000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.17727272727272728, "priorTOI": 16.993236714975843, "priorPPTOI": 1.7734299516908212, "deploymentChange": -1.6250548967940244, "ppTOIChange": -0.1264602547211242, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020505", "date": "20251213", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020185", "date": "20251101", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020174", "date": "20241102", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09374683491217664, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.15740400440996283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15624743277863498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14564117564847123, "goalProbability": 0.1446524768289601, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09886988195111357, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6790327327575498, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.464895635673624, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.935602575896963, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.977272727272727, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3424700693131695, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8924065799774683, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0494556571212856, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1087.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.902184166606197, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.335603377826205, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.314975845410629, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3468953000577017, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.084818684695759, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.1340206185567, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020505", "date": "20251213", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020185", "date": "20251101", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020174", "date": "20241102", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020168", "date": "20241101", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": -9.34786293130135, "index": 90.65213706869865, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.638820638820636, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.017199017199017, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.695331695331696, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.668304668304666, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.955773955773957, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.024570024570025, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": -15.229483309547675, "index": 84.77051669045233, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.34786293130135, "zonePPFit": -15.229483309547675, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1936372228905308, "attemptProjection": 1.4255710271474724, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7905.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.977272727272727, "projectedAttempts": 2.999999999999999, "onNet": 0.4519641311893193, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1087.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8924065799774683, "projectedAttempts": 0.62673998968895, "onNet": 0.5182894386805001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0418555275069943, "ppAdjusted": 0.2677485975120073, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3096041250190016, "baseline": 2.318840579710145, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478542", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.713298706895459, "adjustedSOG": 1.713298706895459, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.713298706895459, "adjustedSOG": 1.6790327327575498, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 132, "beforeSOG": 1.6790327327575498, "adjustedSOG": 1.6790327327575498 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 335.0, "goalExpected": 0.16265931656295513, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16621069827848237, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1501193206296707, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3012897563803213 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12873620021709012, "modelSOG": 1.6790327327575498, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 336.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09374683491217664, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.274464687551124, "btb": { "id": "8478542", "name": "Evan Rodrigues", "score": 49.274464687551124, "components": { "Goal model": 53.72750642673522, "SOG model": 66.32390745501286, "Unit attack": 54.76190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 17.24137931034483, "Shot quality": 57.58354755784062, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 61.843711843711844, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.590371481154082, "unitPlayers": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 184 } }, { "id": "8478550", "name": "Artemi Panarin", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.2, "priorSOG": 2.871794871794872, "currentTOI": 21.341666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 16.091666666666665, "ppShare": 0.8184, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.41, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.4939999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.3494, "priorTOI": 20.842307692307692, "priorPPTOI": 3.179059829059829, "deploymentChange": 0.49935897435897303, "ppTOIChange": 0.23094017094017127, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020476", "date": "20251210", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020632", "date": "20250105", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020444", "date": "20241209", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 24.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1430903846394575, "goalHistoryGoals": 72.0, "goalHistoryShots": 493.0, "goalExpected": 0.4215961591840797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4269973150468507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.344001094958883, "goalProbability": 0.3475346959356784, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35336009767953924, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.946362610222683, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.338684619368203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.07624633431085, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.091666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8184, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4949399999999993, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.7, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 1.0384002664338976, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2046.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.215053209307119, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76004839360129, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.585042735042737, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7459022928377983, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.194424199280338, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.886140853566581, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.829145728643216, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020476", "date": "20251210", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020632", "date": "20250105", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020444", "date": "20241209", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 24.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artemi Panarin", "Alex Laferriere", "Adrian Kempe" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "reportedPPUnits": [ "PP1", "PP2" ], "ppAssignmentNote": "Reported on both units; PP1 retained as primary. No extra minutes inferred.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 215, "fitPct": 6.480806642677933, "index": 106.48080664267793, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.037209302325582, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.972093023255812, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.111627906976743, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.153488372093026, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.58139534883721, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.1441860465116283, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": -10.664568983070112, "index": 89.33543101692989, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 37.47692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.4000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 44.09230769230769, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.415384615384616, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.480806642677933, "zonePPFit": -10.664568983070112, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.3519381818181815, "attemptProjection": 3.5949606250033552, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 41.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 9655.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.091666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 4.1, "onNet": 0.4589053119404557, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2046.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4949399999999993, "projectedAttempts": 1.3323818181818181, "onNet": 0.5726169255581021, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.0417682651315774, "ppAdjusted": 0.7316811382791908, "other": 0.7 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.4734494034107684, "baseline": 2.871794871794872, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478550", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020476", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.23278759076441, "adjustedSOG": 3.23278759076441, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.23278759076441, "adjustedSOG": 3.1681318389491215, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 15, "beforeSOG": 3.1681318389491215, "adjustedSOG": 2.946362610222683 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 490.0, "goalExpected": 0.3931936606603985, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3931936606603985, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.325101966269438, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852598091198303, "modelSOG": 2.946362610222683, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 72.0, "historyShots": 493.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1460446247464503, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1430903846394575, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.02986755161312, "btb": { "id": "8478550", "name": "Artemi Panarin", "score": 67.02986755161312, "components": { "Goal model": 97.17223650385604, "SOG model": 96.40102827763496, "Unit attack": 84.52380952380952, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 82.75862068965517, "Shot quality": 89.46015424164524, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 45.10190664036818, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3111267811696563, "unitPlayers": [ "Artemi Panarin", "Alex Laferriere", "Adrian Kempe" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 40 } }, { "id": "8478569", "name": "Noel Acciari", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.8461538461538461, "priorSOG": 1.3880597014925373, "currentTOI": 14.046153846153846, "currentFiveTOI": 11.087179487179487, "ppShare": 0.0033239580669905395, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.576, "currentIXG": 0.12123076923076924, "priorTOI": 13.707711442786069, "priorPPTOI": 0.0417910447761194, "deploymentChange": 0.3384424033677771, "ppTOIChange": -0.02512437810945273, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020760", "date": "20260117", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020658", "date": "20260104", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020134", "date": "20251025", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021103", "date": "20250321", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020645", "date": "20250107", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.75 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11420695237024912, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.12408199255035005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12270513246597012, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11669258671402864, "goalProbability": 0.11547555834781328, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12170283662153586, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.08646619120075, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.162812210915819, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.087179487179487, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0033239580669905395, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.016215422786632194, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0492294224699945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.798258706467662, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009486921188311254, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9678890332192112, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9922178331718846, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020760", "date": "20260117", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020658", "date": "20260104", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020134", "date": "20251025", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021103", "date": "20250321", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020645", "date": "20250107", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020267", "date": "20241115", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Noel Acciari" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": -1.0703655593596295, "index": 98.92963444064037, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.44865403788634, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.550348953140578, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.05284147557328, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.9022931206380855, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.02891326021934, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.016949152542373, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0703655593596295, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8401675639783728, "attemptProjection": 0.9342296555187777, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8648.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.087179487179487, "projectedAttempts": 1.7692307692307692, "onNet": 0.48013020480130203, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.016215422786632194, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8102755328254982, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8871986097485752, "baseline": 1.3880597014925373, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478569", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.08754304644616, "adjustedSOG": 1.08646619120075, "reductionPct": 0.09901725259784389, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8102755328254982, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8102755328254982, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8094995973541361, "afterRecentZones": 0.8092557329745124, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.808480774083148, "adjusted": 0.808480774083148, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 0.9678890332192112, "newChartFactor": 0.9653025668677645, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.56666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.607819181429444, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.08646619120075, "adjustedSOG": 1.08646619120075, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 278, "beforeSOG": 1.08646619120075, "adjustedSOG": 1.08646619120075 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.10347440693952713, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1015607550775705, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09830090031386404, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1727190254372124 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863739711299504, "modelSOG": 1.08646619120075, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 67, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10614525139664804, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11420695237024912, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.697952907480726, "btb": { "id": "8478569", "name": "Noel Acciari", "score": 37.697952907480726, "components": { "Goal model": 41.131105398457585, "SOG model": 28.79177377892031, "Unit attack": 27.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 32.390745501285345, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 65.01068376068376, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.192481611765573, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Noel Acciari" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 289 } }, { "id": "8478831", "name": "Kevin Stenlund", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.825, "currentTOI": 13.584722222222224, "currentFiveTOI": 11.170833333333334, "ppShare": 0.004924760601915185, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.024999999999999998, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.994, "currentIXG": 0.08283333333333333, "priorTOI": 14.478541666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.22937500000000002, "deploymentChange": -0.8938194444444427, "ppTOIChange": -0.20437500000000003, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11420695237024912, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.09441855843117111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08894509718560237, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09009816455849566, "goalProbability": 0.0851041974499761, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.49939671085195564, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8267321425851052, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.475941812756434, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.170833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004924760601915185, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.025948384720614538, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0307233185554783, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6346318697018765, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.2697547683923704, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.936458333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04816499078120733, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.906841132285945, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9620758794737787, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.227212681638045, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jack McBain", "Kevin Stenlund", "Liam O'Brien" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": -3.1052955904685007, "index": 96.8947044095315, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.736842105263158, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.210526315789474, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.526315789473685, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.473684210526317, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.526315789473685, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.1052955904685007, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8017298995614824, "attemptProjection": 0.8540439090555347, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8043.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.170833333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.9166666666666667, "onNet": 0.48647976559881506, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.025948384720614538, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8278869043085086, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8278869043085086, "baseline": 0.825, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478831", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8267321425851052, "adjustedSOG": 0.8267321425851052, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8267321425851052, "adjustedSOG": 0.8267321425851052, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 338, "beforeSOG": 0.8267321425851052, "adjustedSOG": 0.8267321425851052 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.08227725744863801, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08227725744863801, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07898343540982605, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863739711299504, "modelSOG": 0.8267321425851052, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10614525139664804, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11420695237024912, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.218233333296226, "btb": { "id": "8478831", "name": "Kevin Stenlund", "score": 42.218233333296226, "components": { "Goal model": 31.105398457583547, "SOG model": 13.367609254498715, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 17.994858611825194, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 56.74543321602145, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8422463066102637, "unitPlayers": [ "Jack McBain", "Kevin Stenlund", "Liam O'Brien" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 246 } }, { "id": "8478840", "name": "Will Borgen", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.92, "currentTOI": 18.745833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 16.243055555555554, "ppShare": 0.005906123717749456, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02638888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9440000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.07866666666666668, "priorTOI": 18.041777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 0.03155555555555556, "deploymentChange": 0.7040555555555557, "ppTOIChange": -0.00516666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020906", "date": "20260205", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020608", "date": "20251229", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020206", "date": "20251104", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021266", "date": "20250412", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020802", "date": "20250128", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06889996054966287, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.04689675792622479, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04689675792622479, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.045814095363190456, "goalProbability": 0.045814095363190456, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6806499967793416, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8469431380932022, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.243055555555554, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005906123717749456, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02762658778550914, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 19.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.344625016079928, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.547333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008612075692187079, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.1014788373278939, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 5, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020906", "date": "20260205", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020608", "date": "20251229", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020206", "date": "20251104", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021266", "date": "20250412", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020802", "date": "20250128", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020539", "date": "20241222", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020401", "date": "20241203", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020135", "date": "20241026", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikita Zadorov", "Will Borgen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -15.71589074465436, "index": 84.28410925534564, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.54834054834055, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.40404040404040403, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.0202020202020203, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.031746031746035, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.995670995670997, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -15.71589074465436, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5916666666666666, "attemptProjection": 0.5002195275513069, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 11695.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.243055555555554, "projectedAttempts": 0.9166666666666666, "onNet": 0.42551736907322213, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 19.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02762658778550914, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3792764304423201, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5459430971089867, "baseline": 0.92, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478840", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020206", "date": "20251104", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6955658582653921, "adjustedSOG": 0.6945408130401445, "reductionPct": 0.14736853643217973, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3792764304423201, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3792764304423201, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3775680217335742, "afterRecentZones": 0.3792764304423202, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3775680217335742, "adjusted": 0.3775680217335742, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1329729520266605, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.26666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6945408130401445, "adjustedSOG": 0.6806499967793416, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 364, "beforeSOG": 0.6806499967793416, "adjustedSOG": 0.6806499967793416 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.028086603981352, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.027015102374926415, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02769584225626601, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10423838251968562 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776189821813018, "modelSOG": 0.6806499967793416, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 84, "2025": 75, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0759493670886076, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06889996054966287, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.04238967437875, "btb": { "id": "8478840", "name": "Will Borgen", "score": 33.04238967437875, "components": { "Goal model": 11.568123393316196, "SOG model": 6.683804627249358, "Unit attack": 95.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 16.966580976863753, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 27.77777777777778, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6253400322194755, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikita Zadorov", "Will Borgen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 333 } }, { "id": "8478851", "name": "Alexandre Carrier", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 0.7671232876712328, "currentTOI": 19.91969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 15.663636363636364, "ppShare": 0.011045364891518738, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04242424242424243, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.637, "currentIXG": 0.05790909090909091, "priorTOI": 19.083333333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.0271689497716895, "deploymentChange": 0.8363636363636395, "ppTOIChange": 0.015255292652552929, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0671096862834898, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.06513989257255669, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06828081896159871, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06306361623196195, "goalProbability": 0.06600184764472869, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2938231412766737, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9706481460424033, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.482298316889147, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.663636363636364, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011045364891518738, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04737792122407507, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 28.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7769948524721486, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.390639269406392, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005718555417185555, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1078721282717094, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.46227826458645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Adam Engstrom", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": 3.5957376090569824, "index": 103.59573760905698, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.77777777777779, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.111111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.777777777777779, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5957376090569824, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2272727272727273, "attemptProjection": 1.1135085194032113, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 10338.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.663636363636364, "projectedAttempts": 2.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.40481837180360203, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 28.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04737792122407507, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9885724415197874, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1703906233379693, "baseline": 0.7671232876712328, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478851", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0090836890712747, "adjustedSOG": 0.9904572918800034, "reductionPct": 1.8458723882866734, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9885724415197874, "afterPlayerForm": 0.957528446201002, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9885724415197874, "afterRecentZones": 0.9885724415197874, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9885724415197874, "adjusted": 0.957528446201002, "playerFactor": 0.9685971467391304, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1078721282717094, "newChartFactor": 1.1078721282717094, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8232989296636085, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.36666666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9904572918800034, "adjustedSOG": 0.9706481460424033, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 308, "beforeSOG": 0.9706481460424033, "adjustedSOG": 0.9706481460424033 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.06543864491232797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06543864491232797, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06334348636081998, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05777421570872453, "modelSOG": 0.9706481460424033, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0671096862834898, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.067615334708954, "btb": { "id": "8478851", "name": "Alexandre Carrier", "score": 37.067615334708954, "components": { "Goal model": 18.76606683804627, "SOG model": 21.079691516709513, "Unit attack": 68.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 13.110539845758355, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 42.767915844838924, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.876678038060847, "unitPlayers": [ "Adam Engstrom", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 296 } }, { "id": "8478856", "name": "Conor Garland", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.9295774647887325, "currentTOI": 13.151851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 11.568518518518518, "ppShare": 0.2753942060872754, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3907407407407408, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.023, "currentIXG": 0.11366666666666665, "priorTOI": 17.191784037558683, "priorPPTOI": 1.989906103286385, "deploymentChange": -4.0399321857068315, "ppTOIChange": -0.5991653625456441, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020621", "date": "20251230", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020572", "date": "20251222", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10494958946916697, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.1475953338300856, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1458258501234464, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13721981773875186, "goalProbability": 0.1356917907530991, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15280269856527695, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4063450326639677, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4576596766447896, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.380825565912117, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.568518518518518, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2753942060872754, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.546973992271022, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9949718475470846, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 751.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.981775951402537, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.041642090362156, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.13849765258216, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45940303262019705, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.076659038901602, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.093899361597962, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1748290419509664, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8135593220338984, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.7669172932330826, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020621", "date": "20251230", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020572", "date": "20251222", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sean Monahan", "Cole Sillinger", "Conor Garland" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": 3.129978719932069, "index": 103.12997871993207, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.102564102564102, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.23076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.46153846153846, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 5.827634731698879, "index": 105.82763473169888, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 45.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.129978719932069, "zonePPFit": 5.827634731698879, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1930629601421678, "attemptProjection": 1.1344292658929784, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6247.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.568518518518518, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555551, "onNet": 0.49239098263614844, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 751.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.546973992271022, "projectedAttempts": 0.6179656427181179, "onNet": 0.5277128830201456, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7972729935498748, "ppAdjusted": 0.3664731194676984, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1637461130175732, "baseline": 1.9295774647887325, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478856", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020621", "date": "20251230", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020572", "date": "20251222", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4700786537260369, "adjustedSOG": 1.4350459516979264, "reductionPct": 2.3830495014206976, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7972729935498748, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7972729935498748, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7395560581444425, "afterRecentZones": 0.7965497333069452, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7388851568363574, "adjusted": 0.7388851568363574, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.927607060727786, "oldChartFactor": 1.093899361597962, "newChartFactor": 1.0918354296379364, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1338025328708559, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6547669476567686, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3664731194676984, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3664731194676984, "afterRecentDefense": 0.36647311946769834, "afterRecentZones": 0.3664731194676984, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.36647311946769834, "adjusted": 0.36647311946769834, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1748290419509664, "newChartFactor": 1.1748290419509664, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.554865424430642, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4350459516979264, "adjustedSOG": 1.4063450326639677, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 187, "beforeSOG": 1.4063450326639677, "adjustedSOG": 1.4063450326639677 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.08001717372208458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08139353290234748, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07689950682081911, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12696438946466493 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12868928398111792, "modelSOG": 1.4063450326639677, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 318.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09748427672955975, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10494958946916697, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.67575527821121, "btb": { "id": "8478856", "name": "Conor Garland", "score": 44.67575527821121, "components": { "Goal model": 50.12853470437018, "SOG model": 52.18508997429306, "Unit attack": 55.95238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.246786632390744, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 43.64316239316239, "Goalie H2H": 46.26462646264626 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.591601093172376, "unitPlayers": [ "Sean Monahan", "Cole Sillinger", "Conor Garland" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 220 } }, { "id": "8478859", "name": "Niko Mikkola", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 19.943055555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 16.12638888888889, "ppShare": 0.018599129402453504, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13055555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.275, "currentIXG": 0.10625, "priorTOI": 20.35563725490196, "priorPPTOI": 0.11544117647058823, "deploymentChange": -0.4125816993464042, "ppTOIChange": 0.015114379084967336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052446741525588654, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 201.0, "goalExpected": 0.06846301419159462, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06887290026037268, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06617200215177234, "goalProbability": 0.06655468680481344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.038268465304110155, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3053816538476781, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.3407113943674105, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.12638888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018599129402453504, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10156017036210943, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 94.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.014390735431864, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.929936305732483, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.270098039215686, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02258110139202182, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1633613287642344, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.021223122032952, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 115, "fitPct": 5.445377625474478, "index": 105.44537762547448, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 49.47826086956522, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.739130434782608, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.630434782608695, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.565217391304344, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.891304347826087, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.445377625474478, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.591666666666667, "attemptProjection": 1.5150736525431228, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 11611.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.12638888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.916666666666667, "onNet": 0.39948893545254766, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 94.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.10156017036210943, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3033701596048948, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5533701596048948, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8478859", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.332022095762937, "adjustedSOG": 1.332022095762937, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.332022095762937, "adjustedSOG": 1.3053816538476781, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 223, "beforeSOG": 1.3053816538476781, "adjustedSOG": 1.3053816538476781 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 199.0, "goalExpected": 0.06829405935186213, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06829405935186213, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06601421406290289, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786469199202183, "modelSOG": 1.3053816538476781, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 201.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04975124378109453, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052446741525588654, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.62387212189987, "btb": { "id": "8478859", "name": "Niko Mikkola", "score": 34.62387212189987, "components": { "Goal model": 20.822622107969153, "SOG model": 42.9305912596401, "Unit attack": 39.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 25.44987146529563, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 41.24949124949125, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3977403684528014, "unitPlayers": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 317 } }, { "id": "8478864", "name": "Kirill Kaprizov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 3.3846153846153846, "priorSOG": 3.448717948717949, "currentTOI": 21.505128205128205, "currentFiveTOI": 16.43974358974359, "ppShare": 0.7420400943396226, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 44.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.226923076923077, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 10.034, "currentIXG": 0.7718461538461538, "priorTOI": 22.14679487179487, "priorPPTOI": 3.7324786324786325, "deploymentChange": -0.6416666666666657, "ppTOIChange": -0.5055555555555555, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 26.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17175431238730512, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 458.0, "goalExpected": 0.5122224371099939, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5333044712881793, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4008375029525819, "goalProbability": 0.4133368484359456, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.2499345483363677, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.9822973874154313, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.299383919519613, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.733015494636472, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.43974358974359, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7420400943396226, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1258835362995883, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5384615384615384, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9585268420306895, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.137634914930792, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.632470803755439, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.24337606837607, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7074153423396458, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8039946624118609, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2379315239151543, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.4577394763009615, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.37107776261937, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 26.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 25.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 48, "priorAttempts": 245, "fitPct": -6.53351125293797, "index": 93.46648874706203, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.96428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.08163265306122, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.224489795918366, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.071428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.908163265306122, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": 7.931050797171807, "index": 107.9310507971718, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.952380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.095238095238095, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.523809523809526, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.238095238095239, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.53351125293797, "zonePPFit": 7.931050797171807, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.1810700422562888, "attemptProjection": 3.26844428485105, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 56.0, "sog": 26.0, "seconds": 12823.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.43974358974359, "projectedAttempts": 4.307692307692308, "onNet": 0.47887154138284405, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 2517.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1258835362995883, "projectedAttempts": 1.3412611121190128, "onNet": 0.5746303869141239, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7814495936365562, "ppAdjusted": 0.9048460314555749, "other": 0.5384615384615384 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.2247571635536696, "baseline": 3.448717948717949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478864", "goals": 2, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.314341477619381, "adjustedSOG": 3.2722156982833344, "reductionPct": 1.2710150604730353, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7814495936365562, "afterPlayerForm": 1.776956094280562, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7669397540262142, "afterRecentZones": 1.7814495936365562, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.766939754026214, "adjusted": 1.7624828540526427, "playerFactor": 0.9974776163344474, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.8039946624118609, "newChartFactor": 0.802531291966261, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9850812770795563, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9048460314555749, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8553246778424259, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9048460314555749, "afterRecentZones": 0.9030248192313082, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9030248192313082, "adjusted": 0.853603138812744, "playerFactor": 0.9452709611451943, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2379315239151543, "newChartFactor": 1.2331479132961474, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6620896464646465, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.2722156982833344, "adjustedSOG": 3.2067713843176677, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 13, "beforeSOG": 3.2067713843176677, "adjustedSOG": 2.9822973874154313 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 82.0, "goalHistoryShots": 456.0, "goalExpected": 0.5833397005325095, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5833397005325095, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.44196840733956166, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283890631211626, "modelSOG": 2.9822973874154313, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 41, "2025": 78, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 83.0, "historyShots": 458.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1812227074235808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17175431238730512, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.15593994079894, "btb": { "id": "8478864", "name": "Kirill Kaprizov", "score": 67.15593994079894, "components": { "Goal model": 99.48586118251929, "SOG model": 96.91516709511568, "Unit attack": 98.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 37.93103448275862, "Shot quality": 100.0, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 49.412393162393165, "Goalie H2H": 53.34585182656197 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.326603743094937, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 38 } }, { "id": "8478874", "name": "Adam Gaudette", "position": "R", "priorGP": 66.0, "priorSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorTOI": 11.473989898989899, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 16.289592760180994, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.366666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.368763557483731, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8316420714739587, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0330444604574947, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 170.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 461.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1097651536248028, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8915781178225545, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9894423268938597, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15 }, "inputs": null, "team": "SJS", "isHome": true, "opponent": "BUF", "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "currentGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentSOG": 2.0, "currentTOI": 10.2, "currentFiveTOI": 7.366666666666666, "currentPPTOI": 2.8333333333333335, "currentIXG": 0.05, "currentIXGTotal": 0.05, "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.368763557483731, "trial": 1.4712685998727606, "deploymentChange": -1.2739898989898997, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.16961728286255673, "goalProbability": 0.22085068968839477, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021184", "date": "20250401", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021129", "date": "20250325", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020654", "date": "20250109", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020194", "date": "20241105", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021184", "date": "20250401", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021129", "date": "20250325", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020654", "date": "20250109", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Line 4", "lineMates": [ "Barclay Goodrow", "Zack Ostapchuk", "Adam Gaudette" ], "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -3.614062739248183, "index": 96.38593726075182, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 37.63358778625954, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.7175572519083975, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.740458015267176, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.580152671755725, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.801526717557253, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 31.52671755725191, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.614062739248183, "zonePPFit": null, "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9788846537877192, "attemptProjection": 0.9872216449314107, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 442.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.366666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5201827875095202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 170.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8316420714739587, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.483053149359565, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.483053149359565, "baseline": 1.4545454545454546, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478874", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.471650071433921, "adjustedSOG": 1.4712685998727606, "reductionPct": 0.025921349685298356, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.483053149359565, "afterPlayerForm": 1.483053149359565, "afterRecentDefense": 1.483053149359565, "afterRecentZones": 1.482417363424298, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.482417363424298, "adjusted": 1.482417363424298, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8915781178225545, "newChartFactor": 0.8910052164900606, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.366666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4948160363780072, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.8333333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4712685998727606, "adjustedSOG": 1.4712685998727606, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 171, "beforeSOG": 1.4712685998727606, "adjustedSOG": 1.4712685998727606 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 188.0, "goalExpected": 0.24955258227141583, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24955258227141583, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22085068968839477, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284977746441634, "modelSOG": 1.4712685998727606, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 66, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 188.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19148936170212766, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16961728286255673, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.62204087686093, "btb": { "id": "8478874", "name": "Adam Gaudette", "score": 49.62204087686093, "components": { "Goal model": 78.92030848329048, "SOG model": 56.29820051413882, "Unit attack": 5.9523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.041131105398456, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 32.15811965811966, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9118396407574627, "unitPlayers": [ "Barclay Goodrow", "Zack Ostapchuk", "Adam Gaudette" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 179 } }, { "id": "8478970", "name": "Jalen Chatfield", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.5384615384615385, "priorSOG": 1.3888888888888888, "currentTOI": 20.612820512820512, "currentFiveTOI": 16.871794871794872, "ppShare": 0.011866727521679598, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.54 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.942, "currentIXG": 0.07246153846153845, "priorTOI": 20.13912037037037, "priorPPTOI": 0.06157407407407408, "deploymentChange": 0.47370014245014147, "ppTOIChange": 0.005092592592592586, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04727799482941152, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 234.0, "goalExpected": 0.06646164998162535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06344074697718385, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06430120076559394, "goalProbability": 0.06147027162344606, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.283092914214788, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4057628759728982, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.650455927051672, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.871794871794872, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011866727521679598, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.061178939094274555, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 52.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.235351390823405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.533834586466165, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.117824074074075, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01393527164707602, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9596195395607096, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9128848217249608, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.308266519214819, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaccob Slavin", "Jalen Chatfield" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": -1.3460153479763477, "index": 98.65398465202365, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 69.67320261437908, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.751633986928105, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8300653594771243, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.6143790849673203, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.346405228758172, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901963, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3460153479763477, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4245416899480257, "attemptProjection": 1.5149629120552903, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 13160.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.871794871794872, "projectedAttempts": 3.076923076923077, "onNet": 0.41062843903851726, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 52.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.061178939094274555, "projectedAttempts": 0.0705910835703168, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2240860861327527, "ppAdjusted": 0.014896984099674528, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.469752301001658, "baseline": 1.3888888888888888, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478970", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4374069361565502, "adjustedSOG": 1.4057628759728982, "reductionPct": 2.2014684490297753, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2240860861327527, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1718937856839429, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2240860861327527, "afterRecentZones": 1.2240860861327527, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2240860861327527, "adjusted": 1.1718937856839429, "playerFactor": 0.9573622304508822, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9596195395607096, "newChartFactor": 0.9596195395607096, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 93.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7662128269437477, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.014896984099674528, "afterPlayerForm": 0.01483818021507055, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0144060502301479, "afterRecentZones": 0.014896984099674528, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0144060502301479, "adjusted": 0.014349184242397318, "playerFactor": 0.9960526315789474, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4057628759728982, "adjustedSOG": 1.4057628759728982, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 189, "beforeSOG": 1.4057628759728982, "adjustedSOG": 1.4057628759728982 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 233.0, "goalExpected": 0.08158428025256814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07983323689630668, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07834497073818363, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16152717084281787 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05790850273023448, "modelSOG": 1.4057628759728982, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 72, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 234.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.042735042735042736, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04727799482941152, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.426720082192396, "btb": { "id": "8478970", "name": "Jalen Chatfield", "score": 42.426720082192396, "components": { "Goal model": 19.53727506426735, "SOG model": 51.670951156812336, "Unit attack": 87.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 14.395886889460154, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 40.313390313390315, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3480911414584336, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaccob Slavin", "Jalen Chatfield" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 241 } }, { "id": "8478975", "name": "Mason Marchment", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.9166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.75, "currentTOI": 15.887500000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 13.02361111111111, "ppShare": 0.39066088287828526, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1263888888888887, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.5220000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.2101666666666667, "priorTOI": 17.371813725490195, "priorPPTOI": 2.2455882352941177, "deploymentChange": -1.4843137254901944, "ppTOIChange": -0.119199346405229, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021247", "date": "20260409", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020646", "date": "20260103", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020095", "date": "20241022", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15120397604002014, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 276.0, "goalExpected": 0.2659776500439756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2659776500439756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23354374242675838, "goalProbability": 0.23354374242675838, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7590651847248884, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.910525754505706, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.757021554539516, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.02361111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.39066088287828526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9404056996347758, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0181477848907963, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1531.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.683955925826391, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.072691552062868, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.592156862745098, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184315197619569, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0522143109629853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9505099012285498, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0001401207846938, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.217140709184313, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.028495102404275, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021247", "date": "20260409", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020646", "date": "20260103", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020095", "date": "20241022", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mason Marchment", "Michael Misa", "Will Smith" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 159, "fitPct": -1.6496699590483388, "index": 98.35033004095166, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.97427101200686, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.6357918810749, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.726700971983988, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.786163522012579, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.90680388793596, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.970268724985706, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": 10.65161470334624, "index": 110.65161470334624, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.80952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.047619047619044, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.476190476190474, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.6496699590483388, "zonePPFit": 10.65161470334624, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.937466854184224, "attemptProjection": 1.6815264882179104, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9377.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.02361111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.583333333333333, "onNet": 0.5279059677355736, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1531.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.9404056996347758, "projectedAttempts": 0.6083571102708637, "onNet": 0.5702563156924212, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.397151928453341, "ppAdjusted": 0.4123447427477263, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8094966712010672, "baseline": 1.75, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478975", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021247", "date": "20260409", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7856980027206402, "adjustedSOG": 1.7590651847248884, "reductionPct": 1.4914514075266228, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.397151928453341, "afterPlayerForm": 1.397151928453341, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3598905512615849, "afterRecentZones": 1.397151928453341, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3598905512615849, "adjusted": 1.3598905512615849, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9733304757822546, "oldChartFactor": 0.9505099012285498, "newChartFactor": 0.9505099012285498, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0113698667074125, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755351070214042, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4123447427477263, "afterPlayerForm": 0.40630439857212425, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4112422844619534, "afterRecentZones": 0.4123447427477263, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4112422844619534, "adjusted": 0.40521808994656267, "playerFactor": 0.9853512278697887, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.899529964747356, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7590651847248884, "adjustedSOG": 1.7590651847248884, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 113, "beforeSOG": 1.7590651847248884, "adjustedSOG": 1.7590651847248884 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.34426126118649014, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3240230900870073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2912562633706502, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.4489806032267738 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852694991047567, "modelSOG": 1.7590651847248884, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 276.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15942028985507245, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15120397604002014, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.57761047863876, "btb": { "id": "8478975", "name": "Mason Marchment", "score": 56.57761047863876, "components": { "Goal model": 82.0051413881748, "SOG model": 71.2082262210797, "Unit attack": 32.142857142857146, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.3521850899743, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.44444444444444, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.255509895648057, "unitPlayers": [ "Mason Marchment", "Michael Misa", "Will Smith" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 109 } }, { "id": "8479066", "name": "Ryan Lomberg", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 0.9298245614035088, "currentTOI": 8.746296296296297, "currentFiveTOI": 8.72962962962963, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 57, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.956, "currentIXG": 0.10622222222222222, "priorTOI": 9.044444444444444, "priorPPTOI": 0.012573099415204679, "deploymentChange": -0.2981481481481474, "ppTOIChange": -0.012573099415204679, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020630", "date": "20251231", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020196", "date": "20251102", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.616666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020977", "date": "20250304", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08491115949338801, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 134.0, "goalExpected": 0.11413524095951058, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11276690197486698, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10786270578029274, "goalProbability": 0.10664112396254792, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12215818177448157, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3441724461246845, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.927874416631312, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.72962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0031899881419952, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.2263412087194885, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.960233918128655, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0033385314438343686, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.076659038901602, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.167445942459945, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.06993006993007, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020630", "date": "20251231", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020196", "date": "20251102", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.616666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020977", "date": "20250304", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020035", "date": "20241012", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitri Voronkov", "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "Ryan Lomberg" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": 5.581531415331497, "index": 105.5815314153315, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.254901960784313, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.154061624649861, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.30252100840336, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.50420168067227, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.30252100840336, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.481792717086835, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.581531415331497, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 1.6929924329309305, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 4714.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.72962962962963, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5102754511700198, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5659406609099096, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.788162883132132, "baseline": 0.9298245614035088, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 57, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479066", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4448275544406826, "adjustedSOG": 1.371604536861923, "reductionPct": 5.067941662221798, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5659406609099096, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5565883005954921, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4525776137407678, "afterRecentZones": 1.5659406609099096, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4525776137407678, "adjusted": 1.4439022982786438, "playerFactor": 0.9940276406712735, "defenseFactor": 0.927607060727786, "oldChartFactor": 1.167445942459945, "newChartFactor": 1.167445942459945, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 41.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9511702986279259, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6547669476567686, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.371604536861923, "adjustedSOG": 1.3441724461246845, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 206, "beforeSOG": 1.3441724461246845, "adjustedSOG": 1.3441724461246845 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.16833037396781025, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17122579059839962, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15492540208708971, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2443304146215991 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869211321452798, "modelSOG": 1.3441724461246845, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 57, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 134.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05223880597014925, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08491115949338801, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.01556659291849, "btb": { "id": "8479066", "name": "Ryan Lomberg", "score": 32.01556659291849, "components": { "Goal model": 37.53213367609254, "SOG model": 47.30077120822622, "Unit attack": 16.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 32.64781491002571, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 37.0980870980871, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0688461700669807, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitri Voronkov", "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "Ryan Lomberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 344 } }, { "id": "8479314", "name": "Matthew Tkachuk", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0833333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.838709677419355, "currentTOI": 19.17361111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 12.580555555555556, "ppShare": 0.722398100514444, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 31, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 5.070833333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.325, "currentIXG": 0.27708333333333335, "priorTOI": 18.30268817204301, "priorPPTOI": 3.281182795698925, "deploymentChange": 0.8709229390681017, "ppTOIChange": 1.789650537634409, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14053200893259196, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 269.0, "goalExpected": 0.33500381995002465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3370094780474125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28466464619796156, "goalProbability": 0.28609792652704635, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14332803290847962, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.3838257383107195, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.359019651137117, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.874281018898932, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.580555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.722398100514444, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.944640233958101, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 0.9790227125446014, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3651.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.837606837606837, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.3367196460757, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.587096774193547, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6418222999859342, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9448621553884712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.16181184697827, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9505397922555764, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0977520458917487, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9977865393050748, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.094316807738815, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.18879727040091, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": 5.393728232608993, "index": 105.39372823260899, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.050632911392405, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.544303797468354, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.74683544303797, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.08860759493671, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.5443037974683547, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0253164556962027, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": -1.6486735914807866, "index": 98.35132640851921, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.813852813852813, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.861471861471863, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.98701298701298, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.073593073593074, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.406926406926407, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.393728232608993, "zonePPFit": -1.6486735914807866, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.04580875936377, "attemptProjection": 2.27749581465777, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 41.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 9058.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.580555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 3.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.4510934609944511, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3651.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.944640233958101, "projectedAttempts": 1.0372102505066492, "onNet": 0.5220968500235073, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5685224346423006, "ppAdjusted": 0.5931298523684694, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.16165228701077, "baseline": 2.838709677419355, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 31, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479314", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4324752431742036, "adjustedSOG": 2.4324752431742036, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4324752431742036, "adjustedSOG": 2.3838257383107195, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 42, "beforeSOG": 2.3838257383107195, "adjustedSOG": 2.3838257383107195 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 266.0, "goalExpected": 0.3083098210685762, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3083098210685762, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26531233897178425, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856311296126438, "modelSOG": 2.3838257383107195, "historyGames": 95, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 31, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 269.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1449814126394052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14053200893259196, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.07149963148167, "btb": { "id": "8479314", "name": "Matthew Tkachuk", "score": 67.07149963148167, "components": { "Goal model": 92.80205655526993, "SOG model": 89.46015424164524, "Unit attack": 94.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.03448275862069, "Shot quality": 82.51928020565553, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 50.69190069190069, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8302018307885124, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 39 } }, { "id": "8479325", "name": "Charlie McAvoy", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.608695652173913, "currentTOI": 24.73888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 17.969444444444445, "ppShare": 0.6395778364116095, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6819999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11366666666666665, "priorTOI": 24.38961352657005, "priorPPTOI": 2.876086956521739, "deploymentChange": 0.34927536231884204, "ppTOIChange": 0.4905797101449276, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 26.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07788705670705198, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 218.0, "goalExpected": 0.1001465629481662, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1001465629481662, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09529518788584408, "goalProbability": 0.09529518788584408, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2857921095264448, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3390013912505796, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.910891089108912, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.969444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6395778364116095, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.991700493877275, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1212.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1895.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.1900753212228623, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.965186074429772, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 26.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Hampus Lindholm", "Charlie McAvoy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": -13.788161718319373, "index": 86.21183828168063, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 44.6060606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.96969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5151515151515151, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": -12.820349214694588, "index": 87.17965078530541, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.35135135135135, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.08108108108108, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1621621621621623, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -13.788161718319373, "zonePPFit": -12.820349214694588, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2276651613557945, "attemptProjection": 1.0867361087577458, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6469.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.969444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 2.5000000000000004, "onNet": 0.3993316848225623, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1212.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.991700493877275, "projectedAttempts": 0.5924159393816386, "onNet": 0.4465020576131687, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8518543604327915, "ppAdjusted": 0.30534627462397873, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1572006350567703, "baseline": 1.608695652173913, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479325", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3377986419036274, "adjustedSOG": 1.3120327648229029, "reductionPct": 1.9259906740569654, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8518543604327915, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8351627098528762, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8474817898915257, "afterRecentZones": 0.8518543604327915, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8474817898915257, "adjusted": 0.830875817595365, "playerFactor": 0.9804055113700011, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 88.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.890545022213879, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.30534627462397873, "afterPlayerForm": 0.283381688993531, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30534627462397873, "afterRecentZones": 0.30534627462397873, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.30534627462397873, "adjusted": 0.283381688993531, "playerFactor": 0.9280666330136295, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5605920444033302, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3120327648229029, "adjustedSOG": 1.2857921095264448, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 230, "beforeSOG": 1.2857921095264448, "adjustedSOG": 1.2857921095264448 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 216.0, "goalExpected": 0.14006078162456487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13471747445195026, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13069460400122201, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.46573976296314656 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057680840328425305, "modelSOG": 1.2857921095264448, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 69, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 218.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0871559633027523, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07788705670705198, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.725705379321184, "btb": { "id": "8479325", "name": "Charlie McAvoy", "score": 45.725705379321184, "components": { "Goal model": 33.16195372750643, "SOG model": 41.131105398457585, "Unit attack": 89.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.586206896551722, "Shot quality": 42.673521850899746, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.69690992767916, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3816921770038535, "unitPlayers": [ "Hampus Lindholm", "Charlie McAvoy" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 210 } }, { "id": "8479336", "name": "Carl Grundstrom", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1914893617021276, "currentTOI": 11.33, "currentFiveTOI": 11.283333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.43, "currentIXG": 0.086, "priorTOI": 11.851418439716312, "priorPPTOI": 0.02553191489361702, "deploymentChange": -0.521418439716312, "ppTOIChange": -0.02553191489361702, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09986548958733156, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.1014144740081957, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10028914116681978, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0964415462294006, "goalProbability": 0.09542416989113185, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10173763382687467, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.015510707725611, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.283333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.947329208642415, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.947163120567376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005996153686781405, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.937921679546459, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9614972219173304, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020204", "date": "20241105", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": -2.069277348451365, "index": 97.93072265154863, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.61794019933555, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.44518272425249, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.697674418604652, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.55149501661129, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.827242524916945, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8604651162790697, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.069277348451365, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9614972219173304, "attemptProjection": 0.8366078883507452, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3385.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.283333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.5999999999999999, "onNet": 0.5180949129395698, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8990525551340378, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8990525551340378, "baseline": 1.1914893617021276, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 47, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479336", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0160272777612738, "adjustedSOG": 1.015510707725611, "reductionPct": 0.05084214242762064, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8990525551340378, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8990525551340378, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8981916050745998, "afterRecentZones": 0.8990525551340378, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8981916050745998, "adjusted": 0.8981916050745998, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 0.937921679546459, "newChartFactor": 0.937921679546459, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.015510707725611, "adjustedSOG": 1.015510707725611, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.015510707725611, "adjustedSOG": 1.015510707725611 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.10817821462794826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10617757072025326, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.102532359684016, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17973104565699033 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286650690724556, "modelSOG": 1.015510707725611, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 47, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08053691275167785, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09986548958733156, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479343", "name": "Clayton Keller", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.1666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.7439024390243905, "currentTOI": 17.775000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 13.227777777777776, "ppShare": 0.7630642954856361, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8736111111111113, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.274, "currentIXG": 0.2728333333333333, "priorTOI": 19.085772357723577, "priorPPTOI": 3.1373983739837397, "deploymentChange": -1.3107723577235753, "ppTOIChange": 0.7362127371273717, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.6153846153846154, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.128050043899465, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 469.0, "goalExpected": 0.30237070535001337, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28484221979560775, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2609359608920415, "goalProbability": 0.2478670833568283, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.3068877535213215, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.36134792415543, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.2918941621167574, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.617067049121548, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.227777777777776, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7630642954856361, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.02055805476633, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9700318162076811, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2789.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.736144168650119, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.862399585384814, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.944105691056912, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6588022398251844, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8852535132281578, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9466341614499189, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9286288640319416, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.927051671732523, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.32876712328767, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Clayton Keller", "Nick Schmaltz", "Lawson Crouse" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 233, "fitPct": -3.82488289239474, "index": 96.17511710760526, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.838626609442061, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.550214592274679, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.67381974248927, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.466952789699572, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.181974248927038, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16.28841201716738, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": -1.778861285002705, "index": 98.2211387149973, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.294117647058824, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 55.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.82488289239474, "zonePPFit": -1.778861285002705, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9645592374637084, "attemptProjection": 2.248063924355203, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9524.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.227777777777776, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.47268760227538376, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2789.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.02055805476633, "projectedAttempts": 1.6433976989722539, "onNet": 0.5373169030458034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0731070399215163, "ppAdjusted": 0.7832045409879393, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.106311580909456, "baseline": 2.7439024390243905, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479343", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.36134792415543, "adjustedSOG": 2.36134792415543, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.36134792415543, "adjustedSOG": 2.36134792415543, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 43, "beforeSOG": 2.36134792415543, "adjustedSOG": 2.36134792415543 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 466.0, "goalExpected": 0.2724250087667337, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2724250087667337, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23846946485204445, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860474978795589, "modelSOG": 2.36134792415543, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 469.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1279317697228145, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.128050043899465, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.5833259766969, "btb": { "id": "8479343", "name": "Clayton Keller", "score": 67.5833259766969, "components": { "Goal model": 87.40359897172236, "SOG model": 89.20308483290488, "Unit attack": 51.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.37931034482759, "Shot quality": 81.74807197943444, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 65.07457683928271, "Goalie H2H": 51.16146230007616 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4646084279659064, "unitPlayers": [ "Clayton Keller", "Nick Schmaltz", "Lawson Crouse" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 34 } }, { "id": "8479346", "name": "Dillon Dube", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.527777777777779, "currentFiveTOI": 9.4, "ppShare": 0.007987220447284345, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027777777777777776, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.258, "currentIXG": 0.08600000000000001, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13722208457779578, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.056350849276955405, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05348457883058882, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.054792547642897614, "goalProbability": 0.05207944106538226, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2713106577515355, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.41065437426005746, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.4, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007987220447284345, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.043300416303611186, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 626.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3333333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.48797541518678167, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1692.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.4, "projectedAttempts": 0.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.5002553507590882, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 5.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.043300416303611186, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.07732104092672418, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.41065437426005746, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479346", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.41065437426005746, "adjustedSOG": 0.41065437426005746, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.07732104092672418, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07732104092672418, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07732104092672418, "afterRecentZones": 0.07732104092672418, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07732104092672418, "adjusted": 0.07732104092672418, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 28.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2389305350440452, "defenseRecentMinutes": 243.15, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9776272800253907, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8545497578560245, "defenseRecentMinutes": 31.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.41065437426005746, "adjustedSOG": 0.41065437426005746, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.41065437426005746, "adjustedSOG": 0.41065437426005746 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.045706099122551885, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044924338838099855, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04467730888738024, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07471253371553119 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859430542357372, "modelSOG": 0.41065437426005746, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 1.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13722208457779578, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479351", "name": "Sam Steel", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.1232876712328768, "currentTOI": 15.923333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 13.091666666666665, "ppShare": 0.033503277494537506, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.15333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.607, "currentIXG": 0.1607, "priorTOI": 16.062100456621003, "priorPPTOI": 0.44155251141552515, "deploymentChange": -0.13876712328767127, "ppTOIChange": -0.2882191780821918, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11219826250242201, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.13351260657513334, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13351260657513334, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12498356205238281, "goalProbability": 0.12498356205238281, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1899703578052399, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.124761298535964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.091666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.033503277494537506, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14482553135138712, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 0.988456448075644, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 92.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.305622963322471, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.861427094105481, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.171689497716894, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09141258462644469, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894704201046217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8896021878884435, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.124761298535964, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": -3.6799270703852187, "index": 96.32007292961478, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.7, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.05, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.049999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.6799270703852187, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.165, "attemptProjection": 1.3382970777088832, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7855.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.091666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 2.1999999999999993, "onNet": 0.4793475401210208, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 92.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.14482553135138712, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8516485388544416, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2516485388544416, "baseline": 1.1232876712328768, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479351", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2003041918058157, "adjustedSOG": 1.1899703578052399, "reductionPct": 0.860934592341045, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8516485388544416, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8497116980772182, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8363274794208311, "afterRecentZones": 0.8516485388544416, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8363274794208311, "adjusted": 0.8344254821868153, "playerFactor": 0.9977257745550429, "defenseFactor": 0.9673428388564926, "oldChartFactor": 0.8896021878884435, "newChartFactor": 0.8812337229120268, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9855708908406525, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8478682170542635, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1899703578052399, "adjustedSOG": 1.1899703578052399, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1899703578052399, "adjustedSOG": 1.1899703578052399 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.13486557152944126, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13486557152944126, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12616662812343465, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864306550687854, "modelSOG": 1.1899703578052399, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10326086956521739, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11219826250242201, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479353", "name": "Brett Howden", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "priorSOG": 1.1379310344827587, "currentTOI": 15.588461538461539, "currentFiveTOI": 14.29102564102564, "ppShare": 0.004894384337970119, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02435897435897436, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.69 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.241, "currentIXG": 0.2493076923076923, "priorTOI": 14.893390804597702, "priorPPTOI": 0.6456896551724138, "deploymentChange": 0.6950707338638367, "ppTOIChange": -0.6213306808134395, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16884691123257795, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 213.0, "goalExpected": 0.2242966551259162, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22538757707363527, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2009219513943757, "goalProbability": 0.2017932078527362, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08712564583605031, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3284024770637295, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.1361801381537635, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.29102564102564, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004894384337970119, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024639773973236107, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.00414987214829, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 19.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.482689613768261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.612817089452603, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.923275862068964, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1414019648652332, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9863588161573316, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.864272125998723, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8524824310378806, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.7422373458102935, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Howden", "William Karlsson", "Mitch Marner" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": -4.5242624667092315, "index": 95.47573753329077, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.6487455197132626, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.408602150537636, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.34767025089605, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.27956989247312, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.537634408602151, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.5242624667092315, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4767050915169024, "attemptProjection": 1.5746014153876364, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 11147.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.29102564102564, "projectedAttempts": 2.692307692307692, "onNet": 0.5148280398421349, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 19.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.024639773973236107, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2948840226830387, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5256532534522695, "baseline": 1.1379310344827587, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479353", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3705643658644653, "adjustedSOG": 1.3284024770637295, "reductionPct": 3.0762428858379653, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2948840226830387, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2263322537636812, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2948840226830387, "afterRecentZones": 1.293069938463049, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.293069938463049, "adjusted": 1.2246142080151459, "playerFactor": 0.9470595298740994, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.864272125998723, "newChartFactor": 0.8469838669922167, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6741231017336379, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0539918860508322, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3284024770637295, "adjustedSOG": 1.3284024770637295, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 210, "beforeSOG": 1.3284024770637295, "adjustedSOG": 1.3284024770637295 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.2825721353615392, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2855874086769807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2461577386861027, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22696169772490893 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849083215796897, "modelSOG": 1.3284024770637295, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 58, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 213.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18779342723004694, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16884691123257795, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.82315755631307, "btb": { "id": "8479353", "name": "Brett Howden", "score": 53.82315755631307, "components": { "Goal model": 72.23650385604113, "SOG model": 46.27249357326478, "Unit attack": 67.85714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 76.86375321336762, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 55.09533201840894, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8452987156591543, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Howden", "William Karlsson", "Mitch Marner" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 135 } }, { "id": "8479359", "name": "Beck Malenstyn", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "currentTOI": 10.427272727272728, "currentFiveTOI": 8.165151515151514, "ppShare": 0.005841121495327103, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0303030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.453, "currentIXG": 0.04118181818181818, "priorTOI": 11.243621399176956, "priorPPTOI": 0.018724279835390947, "deploymentChange": -0.8163486719042279, "ppTOIChange": 0.011578750467639353, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09862229102054478, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 142.0, "goalExpected": 0.05846576099775469, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05739760546839007, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05678946556558799, "goalProbability": 0.05578143174527097, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10080338203170211, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5928250134198894, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.004082390053813, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.165151515151514, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005841121495327103, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03068321946096479, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9938645659748523, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.3252086369055505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.319753086419754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0039066815143600124, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0013290802764487, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0737498074611083, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0751769071520454, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.8450704225352113, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.666666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Peyton Krebs", "Tyson Kozak", "Beck Malenstyn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 2.4583269153702787, "index": 102.45832691537028, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.524752475247524, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.732673267326733, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.23762376237624, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1881188118811883, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.544554455445542, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 14.772277227722771, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.4583269153702787, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2932300655869214, "attemptProjection": 0.539736667522088, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 5389.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.165151515151514, "projectedAttempts": 1.0909090909090908, "onNet": 0.4477481191384108, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 20.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03068321946096479, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4164833665545047, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4164833665545047, "baseline": 0.8888888888888888, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479359", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6054455754882584, "adjustedSOG": 0.6049234830815198, "reductionPct": 0.0862327561511389, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4164833665545047, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4164833665545047, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4164833665545047, "afterRecentZones": 0.4156132125432736, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4156132125432736, "adjusted": 0.4156132125432736, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0737498074611083, "newChartFactor": 1.067377147821649, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 42.43333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2347145849698873, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1324694795459413, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6049234830815198, "adjustedSOG": 0.5928250134198894, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 377, "beforeSOG": 0.5928250134198894, "adjustedSOG": 0.5928250134198894 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 142.0, "goalExpected": 0.02971792180388666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.029678709964972235, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.029280686314073913, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0038064435642755357 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866594426971836, "modelSOG": 0.5928250134198894, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 142.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07746478873239436, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09862229102054478, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.111593771388335, "btb": { "id": "8479359", "name": "Beck Malenstyn", "score": 33.111593771388335, "components": { "Goal model": 15.167095115681233, "SOG model": 3.341902313624679, "Unit attack": 3.5714285714285716, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 8.226221079691516, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 63.7973137973138, "Goalie H2H": 51.54226961157654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8199101297570588, "unitPlayers": [ "Peyton Krebs", "Tyson Kozak", "Beck Malenstyn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 332 } }, { "id": "8479369", "name": "Andrew Peeke", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.0649350649350648, "currentTOI": 16.443055555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 14.397222222222224, "ppShare": 0.005745554035567715, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.029166666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.454, "currentIXG": 0.03783333333333334, "priorTOI": 19.385497835497837, "priorPPTOI": 0.032034632034632034, "deploymentChange": -2.9424422799422807, "ppTOIChange": -0.00286796536796537, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021155", "date": "20260328", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020511", "date": "20251214", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020962", "date": "20250302", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04684846316573583, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.04453161537989368, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.041950109423497375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04355463876782614, "goalProbability": 0.04108237966800507, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24722590998210725, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9505459169995432, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8201813621454757, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.397222222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005745554035567715, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.030273115507383628, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 21.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5378749164668424, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.51883116883117, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007305841952533218, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9319006585129614, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.940904529609705, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.896103896103896, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021155", "date": "20260328", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020511", "date": "20251214", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020962", "date": "20250302", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020845", "date": "20250204", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nate Schmidt", "Andrew Peeke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -2.2699780495679533, "index": 97.73002195043205, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 63.854166666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 87 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.270833333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.270833333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.3125, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.041666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.2699780495679533, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8624958188088964, "attemptProjection": 0.886077151276161, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 10366.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.397222222222224, "projectedAttempts": 2.5000000000000004, "onNet": 0.3869569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 21.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.030273115507383628, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8742864850425287, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8742864850425287, "baseline": 1.0649350649350648, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479369", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9505459169995432, "adjustedSOG": 0.9505459169995432, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9505459169995432, "adjustedSOG": 0.9505459169995432, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 311, "beforeSOG": 0.9505459169995432, "adjustedSOG": 0.9505459169995432 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.0423868333742663, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0423868333742663, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04150107052680073, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057896304442458815, "modelSOG": 0.9505459169995432, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 173.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04046242774566474, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04684846316573583, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.73382457837792, "btb": { "id": "8479369", "name": "Andrew Peeke", "score": 34.73382457837792, "components": { "Goal model": 8.997429305912597, "SOG model": 20.308483290488432, "Unit attack": 35.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 3.8560411311053984, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 64.04151404151405, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.346767966130401, "unitPlayers": [ "Nate Schmidt", "Andrew Peeke" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 315 } }, { "id": "8479378", "name": "Logan Stanley", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 1.263157894736842, "currentTOI": 20.681818181818183, "currentFiveTOI": 17.696969696969695, "ppShare": 0.032477575007732754, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1590909090909091, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.495, "currentIXG": 0.045, "priorTOI": 16.697587719298244, "priorPPTOI": 0.418640350877193, "deploymentChange": 3.984230462519939, "ppTOIChange": -0.2595494417862839, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020397", "date": "20251129", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020084", "date": "20251018", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020941", "date": "20250227", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020647", "date": "20250107", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020587", "date": "20241230", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06261895311084649, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.06251197365875467, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06251197365875467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06059818533062717, "goalProbability": 0.06059818533062717, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9982915803159078, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1575342465753424, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.696969696969695, "Current_PP_Share": 0.032477575007732754, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1621664370272474, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 105.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.4260525368837715, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.314824515453116, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.626315789473683, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0873461908449934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1399179827391828, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.048169922245401, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020397", "date": "20251129", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020084", "date": "20251018", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020941", "date": "20250227", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020647", "date": "20250107", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020587", "date": "20241230", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 155, "fitPct": 4.663932757972759, "index": 104.66393275797276, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.09677419354839, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.806451612903226, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.064516129032258, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.225806451612906, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.03225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.774193548387097, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.663932757972759, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7318181818181817, "attemptProjection": 0.9795208847772798, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 11680.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.696969696969695, "projectedAttempts": 2.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.3369569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 105.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1621664370272474, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8556695332977308, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8556695332977308, "baseline": 1.263157894736842, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479378", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020084", "date": "20251018", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0186648778733753, "adjustedSOG": 1.0186648778733753, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0186648778733753, "adjustedSOG": 0.9982915803159078, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 302, "beforeSOG": 0.9982915803159078, "adjustedSOG": 0.9982915803159078 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.05500237690507601, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05500237690507601, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05351710174919501, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779976183933315, "modelSOG": 0.9982915803159078, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 76, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06578947368421052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06261895311084649, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.62225925376632, "btb": { "id": "8479378", "name": "Logan Stanley", "score": 35.62225925376632, "components": { "Goal model": 16.966580976863753, "SOG model": 22.62210796915167, "Unit attack": 54.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 8.997429305912597, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 64.86229819563152, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.637817462676188, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 306 } }, { "id": "8479407", "name": "Jesper Bratt", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.3636363636363638, "priorSOG": 2.1707317073170733, "currentTOI": 17.37121212121212, "currentFiveTOI": 13.340909090909092, "ppShare": 0.6190926275992439, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.977272727272727, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.44, "currentIXG": 0.31272727272727274, "priorTOI": 18.76341463414634, "priorPPTOI": 2.7747967479674798, "deploymentChange": -1.3922025129342188, "ppTOIChange": 0.2024759793052473, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11955385734639305, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 384.0, "goalExpected": 0.2449938777051719, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2431937140443745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21729066979551653, "goalProbability": 0.21588039592126843, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1410273874248108, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.049234404836737, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.768313458262351, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.82442748091603, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.340909090909092, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6190926275992439, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4209557770521855, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1965.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.9198990130823965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.27395253442719, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.16910569105691, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7154311347748162, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.468244084682441, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.300546448087431, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 197, "fitPct": -9.185646085383084, "index": 90.81435391461692, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.457671524480105, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.92254789585721, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.45783527100049, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.22416898640904, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.565744227935157, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.372032094317996, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": -12.70616339998088, "index": 87.29383660001912, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.709359605911331, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.517241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.07881773399015, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.985221674876847, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.709359605911331, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.185646085383084, "zonePPFit": -12.70616339998088, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.08969897462336, "attemptProjection": 1.9861771327523003, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 8805.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.340909090909092, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.4686117547925005, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1965.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4209557770521855, "projectedAttempts": 0.8356533195852667, "onNet": 0.5596274500267497, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5334472542446758, "ppAdjusted": 0.5044907994431547, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.03793805368783, "baseline": 2.1707317073170733, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479407", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0910555151395274, "adjustedSOG": 2.0910555151395274, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0910555151395274, "adjustedSOG": 2.049234404836737, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 79, "beforeSOG": 2.049234404836737, "adjustedSOG": 2.049234404836737 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.30285901640759705, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3094714133854008, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26129676593488493, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.48684851152543396 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864066955654238, "modelSOG": 2.049234404836737, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 384.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1171875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11955385734639305, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.88242447687782, "btb": { "id": "8479407", "name": "Jesper Bratt", "score": 64.88242447687782, "components": { "Goal model": 78.1491002570694, "SOG model": 79.94858611825192, "Unit attack": 95.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 65.51724137931035, "Shot quality": 85.8611825192802, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 50.773300773300775, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.00903497149229, "unitPlayers": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 53 } }, { "id": "8479410", "name": "Mikhail Sergachev", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.0384615384615383, "currentTOI": 23.31527777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 16.740277777777777, "ppShare": 0.6900136798905608, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5027777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5010000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.12508333333333335, "priorTOI": 24.295726495726495, "priorPPTOI": 3.019230769230769, "deploymentChange": -0.9804487179487147, "ppTOIChange": 0.4835470085470086, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 29.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07981398787808033, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.1834785808479652, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17284229367783885, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16763029579979782, "goalProbability": 0.15872972197507207, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8900573824725755, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.2988273825916012, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.168339832406869, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.564631245043616, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.740277777777777, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6900136798905608, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6356570147438814, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2522.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.348308374930671, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.681528662420382, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.33653846153846, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6339889794717711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9097611666770787, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9185511296401423, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.383100902378999, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.534850640113797, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 29.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mikhail Sergachev", "MacKenzie Weegar" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 32, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": -3.007961110764043, "index": 96.99203888923596, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.34929078014184, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 92 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.293439716312056, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.577127659574468, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.717198581560286, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0195035460992905, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.043439716312055, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": 15.531761724394642, "index": 115.53176172439464, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 92.72727272727272, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.007961110764043, "zonePPFit": 15.531761724394642, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.600581774521085, "attemptProjection": 2.344227449502201, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 12053.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.740277777777777, "projectedAttempts": 4.083333333333334, "onNet": 0.4440056516511773, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2522.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6356570147438814, "projectedAttempts": 1.2974192360307266, "onNet": 0.4170940170940171, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7488647557146781, "ppAdjusted": 0.5568731896302983, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.472404612011643, "baseline": 2.0384615384615383, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479410", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2988273825916012, "adjustedSOG": 2.2988273825916012, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.2988273825916012, "adjustedSOG": 2.2988273825916012, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 52, "beforeSOG": 2.2988273825916012, "adjustedSOG": 2.2988273825916012 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.21509738627468858, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21509738627468858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1935371020643837, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05761316872427984, "modelSOG": 2.2988273825916012, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 78, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 323.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08668730650154799, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07981398787808033, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.670179927505345, "btb": { "id": "8479410", "name": "Mikhail Sergachev", "score": 56.670179927505345, "components": { "Goal model": 61.43958868894602, "SOG model": 86.88946015424165, "Unit attack": 90.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.37931034482759, "Shot quality": 36.50385604113111, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 34.75783475783476, "Goalie H2H": 46.3996399639964 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3830146098269034, "unitPlayers": [ "Mikhail Sergachev", "MacKenzie Weegar" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 108 } }, { "id": "8479420", "name": "Tage Thompson", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 4.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 3.3580246913580245, "currentTOI": 19.716666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.6638434579439252, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 45.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.443939393939394, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.03, "currentIXG": 0.4572727272727273, "priorTOI": 19.243621399176956, "priorPPTOI": 3.3129629629629633, "deploymentChange": 0.47304526748970943, "ppTOIChange": 0.13097643097643052, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15454486636641823, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 559.0, "goalExpected": 0.5444608062476394, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5345136369849649, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4198454852893952, "goalProbability": 0.41404579269246916, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5799692596926032, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.522995095526174, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.700975081256772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.086669599648042, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6638434579439252, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.487147891738648, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0027135944463237, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.265700214251927, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.086081609837898, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.78971193415638, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6912250446451711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.070626994749305, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1140982089093738, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1835248394763112, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.208663747189016, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.681990265008112, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Benson", "Tage Thompson", "Konsta Helenius" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 43, "priorAttempts": 271, "fitPct": 3.803273630312461, "index": 103.80327363031246, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.75688663863383, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.819102377070282, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.424182613919164, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.747447009353813, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.62876512486055, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6236162361623618, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": 6.1174946492103714, "index": 106.11749464921037, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.81818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.393939393939394, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.939393939393941, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.09090909090909, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.353535353535353, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.40404040404040403, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.803273630312461, "zonePPFit": 6.1174946492103714, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.645545204527753, "attemptProjection": 4.106576618708095, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 52.0, "sog": 33.0, "seconds": 10153.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.383333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 4.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.57365708714425, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2273.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.487147891738648, "projectedAttempts": 1.0125462422118379, "onNet": 0.5413804682968526, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 3.223278744475449, "ppAdjusted": 0.6982367125970209, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.376060911617924, "baseline": 3.3580246913580245, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479420", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.9688464235139644, "adjustedSOG": 3.8654762952887576, "reductionPct": 2.6045383770149644, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 3.223278744475449, "afterPlayerForm": 3.057132401999408, "afterRecentDefense": 3.223278744475449, "afterRecentZones": 3.2217386248832933, "afterDefenseAndZones": 3.2217386248832933, "adjusted": 3.055671669037295, "playerFactor": 0.9484542431333908, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1140982089093738, "newChartFactor": 1.113103516457706, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.691303385704802, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3936221524642403, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6982367125970209, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6982367125970209, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6935602409931634, "afterRecentZones": 0.6982367125970209, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6935602409931634, "adjusted": 0.6935602409931634, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.1835248394763112, "newChartFactor": 1.1835248394763112, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0533714373986252, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.8654762952887576, "adjustedSOG": 3.7881667693829826, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 3, "beforeSOG": 3.7881667693829826, "adjustedSOG": 3.522995095526174 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 559.0, "goalExpected": 0.6552644614714714, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6543998611579258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4806952916619138, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04491851684918502 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284506693546961, "modelSOG": 3.522995095526174, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 89.0, "historyShots": 559.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1592128801431127, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15454486636641823, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.72148394718403, "btb": { "id": "8479420", "name": "Tage Thompson", "score": 69.72148394718403, "components": { "Goal model": 100.0, "SOG model": 99.48586118251929, "Unit attack": 64.28571428571429, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 24.137931034482758, "Shot quality": 96.1439588688946, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 48.717948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.753892139218213, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Benson", "Tage Thompson", "Konsta Helenius" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 18 } }, { "id": "8479425", "name": "Filip Hronek", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.9230769230769231, "priorSOG": 1.670731707317073, "currentTOI": 25.494871794871795, "currentFiveTOI": 17.955128205128204, "ppShare": 0.6472060050041701, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9846153846153842, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.521, "currentIXG": 0.04007692307692308, "priorTOI": 25.00569105691057, "priorPPTOI": 1.7959349593495937, "deploymentChange": 0.48918073796122385, "ppTOIChange": 1.1886804252657905, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.7 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05657741547082152, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 232.0, "goalExpected": 0.0675864080189675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06693382049756348, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06535304386518523, "goalProbability": 0.06474290586212315, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.061013800306207455, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1945828111187513, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3134594787575864, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.5463917525773196, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.955128205128204, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6472060050041701, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2338802148643686, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2328.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6441010597640835, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.555907650520597, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.677642276422763, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47598013337786443, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9885178713108732, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9152943252878455, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4957633646587585, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.5873015873015872, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.7 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zeev Buium", "Filip Hronek" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": -0.3827376229708932, "index": 99.6172623770291, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.83022275737507, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3245033112582782, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.5298013245033113, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.119205298013245, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.606863335340158, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5894039735099341, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -15.648524861774561, "index": 84.35147513822544, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.96774193548387, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.870967741935485, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.3827376229708932, "zonePPFit": -15.648524861774561, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8583567699539391, "attemptProjection": 1.0808249526823182, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 14005.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.955128205128204, "projectedAttempts": 1.4615384615384615, "onNet": 0.4196602828038631, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2328.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2338802148643686, "projectedAttempts": 0.9168217103996921, "onNet": 0.36247723132969034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6382993219015896, "ppAdjusted": 0.17744538557038525, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9695908613181285, "baseline": 1.670731707317073, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479425", "goals": 0, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2500471997177063, "adjustedSOG": 1.218962052161991, "reductionPct": 2.4867179065506506, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6382993219015896, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6005230502451037, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6382993219015896, "afterRecentZones": 0.6378553489483287, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6378553489483287, "adjusted": 0.6001053528060335, "playerFactor": 0.9408173088074969, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9885178713108732, "newChartFactor": 0.9871326756966993, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 91.26666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6730325631463612, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.17744538557038525, "afterPlayerForm": 0.16383077540641552, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17744538557038525, "afterRecentZones": 0.17744538557038525, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17744538557038525, "adjusted": 0.16383077540641552, "playerFactor": 0.9232743634318438, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.48208738869331125, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.218962052161991, "adjustedSOG": 1.1945828111187513, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 248, "beforeSOG": 1.1945828111187513, "adjustedSOG": 1.1945828111187513 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.06937271194992001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07090177126982067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06702111711053199, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14254899490710182 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783701936312747, "modelSOG": 1.1945828111187513, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 232.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05603448275862069, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05657741547082152, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.84021572995263, "btb": { "id": "8479425", "name": "Filip Hronek", "score": 34.84021572995263, "components": { "Goal model": 20.308483290488432, "SOG model": 36.50385604113111, "Unit attack": 7.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.48275862068966, "Shot quality": 2.570694087403599, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 69.56315289648623, "Goalie H2H": 40.32258064516129 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7631500812954917, "unitPlayers": [ "Zeev Buium", "Filip Hronek" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 314 } }, { "id": "8479525", "name": "Ross Colton", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 2.095890410958904, "currentTOI": 13.048484848484849, "currentFiveTOI": 12.345454545454546, "ppShare": 0.0994843797391568, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.496969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.596, "currentIXG": 0.1450909090909091, "priorTOI": 12.517808219178082, "priorPPTOI": 0.7682648401826484, "deploymentChange": 0.5306766293067664, "ppTOIChange": -0.2712951432129514, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020300", "date": "20251116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09915915184450472, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.16898384813011405, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16898384813011405, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1554774561058811, "goalProbability": 0.1554774561058811, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7041679460419763, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.743740795287187, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.345454545454546, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0994843797391568, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5230466631740517, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.0122748750964923, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 328.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.103964897023362, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.558692421991084, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.551141552511416, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14024776041457437, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1010860484544696, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9857553432248481, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0854014556143274, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.453043238777196, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020300", "date": "20251116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Wood", "Jonathan Marchessault", "Ross Colton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 223, "fitPct": -0.47482189250506224, "index": 99.52517810749494, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.674887892376681, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.686098654708521, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.968609865470853, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.213004484304935, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.84304932735426, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.614349775784753, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -9.269187832627637, "index": 90.73081216737236, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.47482189250506224, "zonePPFit": -9.269187832627637, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.364074552322654, "attemptProjection": 1.521964719872062, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8148.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.345454545454546, "projectedAttempts": 3.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.44423980454801726, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 328.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5230466631740517, "projectedAttempts": 0.28703780296136977, "onNet": 0.5485823832105742, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3278884937756215, "ppAdjusted": 0.1151311423217366, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.443019636097358, "baseline": 2.095890410958904, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479525", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7041679460419763, "adjustedSOG": 1.7041679460419763, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7041679460419763, "adjustedSOG": 1.7041679460419763, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 125, "beforeSOG": 1.7041679460419763, "adjustedSOG": 1.7041679460419763 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.15971989212456753, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15971989212456753, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14761748541459624, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12870387523045845, "modelSOG": 1.7041679460419763, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 73, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 292.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08904109589041095, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09915915184450472, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.01290526097724, "btb": { "id": "8479525", "name": "Ross Colton", "score": 46.01290526097724, "components": { "Goal model": 57.0694087403599, "SOG model": 68.12339331619538, "Unit attack": 28.571428571428573, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 44.987146529562985, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.91330891330891, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1933714725408686, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Wood", "Jonathan Marchessault", "Ross Colton" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 207 } }, { "id": "8479619", "name": "Michael Carcone", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 3.4, "priorSOG": 1.860759493670886, "currentTOI": 12.486666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.963333333333335, "ppShare": 0.2498627127951675, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.521, "currentIXG": 0.30419999999999997, "priorTOI": 12.725316455696202, "priorPPTOI": 0.9278481012658227, "deploymentChange": -0.2386497890295356, "ppTOIChange": 0.5888185654008439, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.1 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.6153846153846154, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10874966506140632, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.2603428641843296, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24525074033335947, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22921273485384364, "goalProbability": 0.21749169275243202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1721042101411616, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.3939647449702495, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.13469139556096, "Current_PP_SOG60": 39.56043956043956, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.963333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2498627127951675, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3165175575080845, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9700318162076811, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 455.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1821.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.437193415936921, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.096862210095498, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.612236286919831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19483289479598506, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8939953184672339, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0327458071144655, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013102637480925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.13469139556096, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 39.56043956043956, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.1 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 205, "fitPct": -3.533489384425536, "index": 96.46651061557446, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.497847919655667, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.2682926829268295, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.127690100430417, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.393113342898133, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.393113342898133, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.319942611190816, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 1.0915269038155202, "index": 101.09152690381552, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.956521739130434, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.434782608695656, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.130434782608695, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.533489384425536, "zonePPFit": 1.0915269038155202, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9194070833855292, "attemptProjection": 2.579462741620787, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 3289.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.963333333333335, "projectedAttempts": 4.2, "onNet": 0.517751878684246, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 455.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3165175575080845, "projectedAttempts": 1.0416402652811219, "onNet": 0.5906226126814362, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.015886411750869, "ppAdjusted": 0.7335485007522891, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.7494349125031583, "baseline": 1.860759493670886, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479619", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3939647449702495, "adjustedSOG": 2.3939647449702495, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.3939647449702495, "adjustedSOG": 2.3939647449702495, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.3939647449702495, "adjustedSOG": 2.3939647449702495 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.32162356877987486, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32162356877987486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2750289592946108, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866136455816743, "modelSOG": 2.3939647449702495, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 79, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.100418410041841, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10874966506140632, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479639", "name": "Dylan Coghlan", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 15.204761904761906, "currentFiveTOI": 14.964285714285714, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.353, "currentIXG": 0.05042857142857143, "priorTOI": 15.055555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 0.11666666666666665, "deploymentChange": 0.14920634920635045, "ppTOIChange": -0.11666666666666665, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04742337961386065, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.0495825115710642, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.049823668310853934, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.048373365311734466, "goalProbability": 0.04860282881900524, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.02294635072707732, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.045528850427448, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.300715990453461, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.964285714285714, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9916456923180104, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1786.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.939033189033189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8691464400017369, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.530612244897959, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": -4.361785333275435, "index": 95.63821466672456, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 96.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.361785333275435, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3357142857142856, "attemptProjection": 1.3100955925264859, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6285.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.964285714285714, "projectedAttempts": 3.142857142857143, "onNet": 0.4299522154648132, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3229049391203858, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3229049391203858, "baseline": 0.6666666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479639", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.060409630138898, "adjustedSOG": 1.045528850427448, "reductionPct": 1.403304844515696, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3229049391203858, "afterPlayerForm": 1.308042958306304, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3128526899011672, "afterRecentZones": 1.3229049391203858, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3128526899011672, "adjusted": 1.2981036396013022, "playerFactor": 0.9887656471946022, "defenseFactor": 0.9846541744334347, "oldChartFactor": 0.8691464400017369, "newChartFactor": 0.8691464400017369, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.933194092492873, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9275128597247325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.045528850427448, "adjustedSOG": 1.045528850427448, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.045528850427448, "adjustedSOG": 1.045528850427448 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.07730708568611325, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07813201484009952, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07439443026247715, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07632441651040378 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057856523128909994, "modelSOG": 1.045528850427448, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 3, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 22.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04742337961386065, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479661", "name": "Tanner Jeannot", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.0129870129870129, "currentTOI": 11.215277777777779, "currentFiveTOI": 9.879166666666666, "ppShare": 0.03232825613926018, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.14444444444444446, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.287, "currentIXG": 0.10725, "priorTOI": 12.642857142857142, "priorPPTOI": 0.0816017316017316, "deploymentChange": -1.4275793650793638, "ppTOIChange": 0.06284271284271285, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021109", "date": "20250322", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020832", "date": "20250201", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11193218691544875, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.07829656588960528, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07829656588960528, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07530984568256825, "goalProbability": 0.07530984568256825, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6995000102048294, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.036693378321383, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.879166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03232825613926018, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.15121921735226054, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0063949546692474, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0522376422891, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.104761904761906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018610151460169075, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9176080040573562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8042511083323369, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021109", "date": "20250322", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020832", "date": "20250201", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tanner Jeannot", "Matthew Poitras", "Mark Kastelic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": -6.5249630555887705, "index": 93.47503694441123, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.206896551724138, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.931034482758623, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.92241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.422413793103445, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.17241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3448275862068966, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.5249630555887705, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.42499999999999993, "attemptProjection": 0.6036023847412257, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 7113.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.879166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.5833333333333333, "onNet": 0.44580265777654304, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 104.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.15121921735226054, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5143011923706129, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5143011923706129, "baseline": 1.0129870129870129, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479661", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7137755206171729, "adjustedSOG": 0.7137755206171729, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5143011923706129, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5143011923706129, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5143011923706129, "afterRecentZones": 0.5143011923706129, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5143011923706129, "adjusted": 0.5143011923706129, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8042511083323369, "newChartFactor": 0.7973734548536052, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 44.13333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.272400222610908, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1192188200501805, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.1833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7137755206171729, "adjustedSOG": 0.6995000102048294, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 362, "beforeSOG": 0.6995000102048294, "adjustedSOG": 0.6995000102048294 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.05749830805020742, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05530475237920298, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05587651220538985, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20732605056269227 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863724859707698, "modelSOG": 0.6995000102048294, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 140.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11193218691544875, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.02441479305233, "btb": { "id": "8479661", "name": "Tanner Jeannot", "score": 40.02441479305233, "components": { "Goal model": 26.22107969151671, "SOG model": 7.197943444730077, "Unit attack": 71.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 26.47814910025707, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 64.19753086419753, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9269653693361715, "unitPlayers": [ "Tanner Jeannot", "Matthew Poitras", "Mark Kastelic" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 269 } }, { "id": "8479671", "name": "Mathieu Olivier", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.540983606557377, "currentTOI": 15.029629629629632, "currentFiveTOI": 13.261111111111111, "ppShare": 0.004767143381004767, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.024074074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.206, "currentIXG": 0.2451111111111111, "priorTOI": 14.228415300546446, "priorPPTOI": 0.02814207650273224, "deploymentChange": 0.8012143290831855, "ppTOIChange": -0.004068002428658166, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1495446375834193, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.24008307938772352, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2372047831286737, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21343748877986007, "goalProbability": 0.21117026754435553, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22672212355045462, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6054275383415195, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.535400083787181, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.261111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004767143381004767, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02677851118445178, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9983998478176945, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.796299792335284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.025409836065574, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006497068011517183, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.076659038901602, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0696762153081187, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.544264679149245, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Knies", "Charlie Coyle", "Mathieu Olivier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 146, "fitPct": 2.3225405102706276, "index": 102.32254051027063, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.980430528375733, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.193737769080233, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.91389432485323, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.585127201565557, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.324853228962816, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.001956947162427, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3225405102706276, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 1.8245485092348903, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7161.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.261111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.4941494149414941, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02677851118445178, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6317186990618895, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8539409212841118, "baseline": 1.540983606557377, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479671", "goals": 2, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.2857142857142857, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7287579953934178, "adjustedSOG": 1.6381913656546119, "reductionPct": 5.238826370153415, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6317186990618895, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6006207915321555, "afterRecentDefense": 1.513593786371366, "afterRecentZones": 1.6273526064013124, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.509543767991623, "adjusted": 1.4807743161638793, "playerFactor": 0.9809416245903091, "defenseFactor": 0.927607060727786, "oldChartFactor": 1.0696762153081187, "newChartFactor": 1.0640531050398037, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8782192788815305, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6547669476567686, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.21666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6381913656546119, "adjustedSOG": 1.6054275383415195, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 143, "beforeSOG": 1.6054275383415195, "adjustedSOG": 1.6054275383415195 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 219.0, "goalExpected": 0.26603585641553357, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2706118852381507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2335883537661249, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.34991096638621877 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285428402669417, "modelSOG": 1.6054275383415195, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 61, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 220.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1590909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1495446375834193, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.42934262081094, "btb": { "id": "8479671", "name": "Mathieu Olivier", "score": 51.42934262081094, "components": { "Goal model": 76.86375321336762, "SOG model": 63.49614395886889, "Unit attack": 42.857142857142854, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 74.55012853470437, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 60.73403720462544, "Goalie H2H": 53.83011985409067 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3449999816851106, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Knies", "Charlie Coyle", "Mathieu Olivier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 158 } }, { "id": "8479675", "name": "Trevor Moore", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 2.3043478260869565, "currentTOI": 16.063333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.356666666666666, "ppShare": 0.1328, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5533333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.353, "currentIXG": 0.1353, "priorTOI": 16.728743961352656, "priorPPTOI": 0.6891304347826086, "deploymentChange": -0.6654106280193233, "ppTOIChange": -0.13579710144927526, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10434746204972041, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 330.0, "goalExpected": 0.221173520459203, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22400702031610356, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19842242188743348, "goalProbability": 0.2006904770558475, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22680551684140238, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.1195869656495936, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.738208135762416, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.356666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1328, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5671163636363635, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 1.0384002664338976, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 332.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.993705743509048, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.094637223974763, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.815217391304348, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.16169056230711876, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.025149035159977, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.044823521828108, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.440578711677575, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Moore", "Quinton Byfield", "Taylor Ward" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 196, "fitPct": 8.732949167597994, "index": 108.732949167598, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.489795918367346, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.020408163265307, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.816326530612248, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.897959183673468, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 0.8383011719992339, "index": 100.83830117199923, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.732949167597994, "zonePPFit": 0.8383011719992339, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0249999999999995, "attemptProjection": 2.1120157068826755, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8014.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.356666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 3.2, "onNet": 0.4848827242266032, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 332.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5671163636363635, "projectedAttempts": 0.10249090909090908, "onNet": 0.5504875747090281, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7401692044798929, "ppAdjusted": 0.028338648961444907, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0685078534413375, "baseline": 2.3043478260869565, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479675", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.1628438424995853, "adjustedSOG": 2.1628438424995853, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1628438424995853, "adjustedSOG": 2.1195869656495936, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 72, "beforeSOG": 2.1195869656495936, "adjustedSOG": 2.1195869656495936 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 330.0, "goalExpected": 0.1952076229912675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1952076229912675, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17733616360314022, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869408681379774, "modelSOG": 2.1195869656495936, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 69, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 330.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09696969696969697, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10434746204972041, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.98831743807466, "btb": { "id": "8479675", "name": "Trevor Moore", "score": 52.98831743807466, "components": { "Goal model": 71.72236503856041, "SOG model": 81.74807197943444, "Unit attack": 19.047619047619047, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 89.65517241379311, "Shot quality": 42.9305912596401, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 59.13461538461539, "Goalie H2H": 52.04558191668223 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1002592663072797, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Moore", "Quinton Byfield", "Taylor Ward" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 145 } }, { "id": "8479941", "name": "Justin Danforth", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.16666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 9.155555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 8.183333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0015608740894901144, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.261, "currentIXG": 0.043500000000000004, "priorTOI": 11.704166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.125, "deploymentChange": -2.5486111111111125, "ppTOIChange": -0.11666666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020204", "date": "20241105", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 6.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11098099946840782, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.04171117934549064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0409491260326822, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04085323803285283, "goalProbability": 0.04012203849429644, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07311995385563888, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.37584072539700153, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.2219959266802445, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0015608740894901144, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.008199220351275502, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9870699475962634, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1922.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.4648700673724737, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.658333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.026080318900809973, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0013290802764487, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0621097334445806, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.063521362542726, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.2219959266802445, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 6.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020204", "date": "20241105", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 2.0703244481526895, "index": 102.07032444815269, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.0703244481526895, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.17725356042378768, "attemptProjection": 0.4361291660177203, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2946.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.183333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.8333333333333333, "onNet": 0.4736273627362736, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.008199220351275502, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.30669136322075397, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.30669136322075397, "baseline": 0.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 4, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479941", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.3840148179324524, "adjustedSOG": 0.38351094428265464, "reductionPct": 0.13121203304358176, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.30669136322075397, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30669136322075397, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30669136322075397, "afterRecentZones": 0.3058515738044244, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3058515738044244, "adjusted": 0.3058515738044244, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0621097334445806, "newChartFactor": 1.052045636441453, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 42.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1543887147335423, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1324694795459413, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.38351094428265464, "adjustedSOG": 0.37584072539700153, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.37584072539700153, "adjustedSOG": 0.37584072539700153 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.020835972848801686, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02080848045494036, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020620403759765194, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0026925859726058265 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286325689527634, "modelSOG": 0.37584072539700153, "historyGames": 71, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 4, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 97.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09278350515463918, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11098099946840782, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479976", "name": "Juuso Vlimki", "position": "D", "priorGP": 0, "priorSOG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.921052631578948, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.511111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.052763819095477386, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2720239820899369, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 42.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 796.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9588162374615585, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9121206414812878, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.2249637155297535, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "inputs": null, "team": "CAR", "isHome": true, "opponent": "BOS", "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "currentGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 13.983333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.511111111111111, "currentPPTOI": 0.2333333333333333, "currentIXG": 0.09933333333333333, "currentIXGTotal": 0.298, "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.052763819095477386, "trial": 1.2687620547560212, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.060984075495451595, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.07737428093300548, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07385736256276282, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0744566244676596, "goalProbability": 0.07119583336070298, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3260791106956623, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020086", "date": "20241019", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020086", "date": "20241019", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": false, "projected": false, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -1.3727920846147157, "index": 98.62720791538528, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3727920846147157, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2161608553083836, "attemptProjection": 1.3213632542036589, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2432.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.511111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.3992759918911092, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 42.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2720239820899369, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2687620547560212, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2687620547560212, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 0, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479976", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2687620547560212, "adjustedSOG": 1.2687620547560212, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2687620547560212, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2687620547560212, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2687620547560212, "afterRecentZones": 1.2687620547560212, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2687620547560212, "adjusted": 1.2687620547560212, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9588162374615585, "newChartFactor": 0.9588162374615585, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 40.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2687620547560212, "adjustedSOG": 1.2687620547560212, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2687620547560212, "adjustedSOG": 1.2687620547560212 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.05510609814030318, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053923355990230314, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053615267033522686, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11199913137711348 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781706871345029, "modelSOG": 1.2687620547560212, "historyGames": 46, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06818181818181818, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060984075495451595, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479977", "name": "Kailer Yamamoto", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.857142857142857, "priorSOG": 1.0169491525423728, "currentTOI": 14.792857142857143, "currentFiveTOI": 13.37857142857143, "ppShare": 0.22791712104689205, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9952380952380953, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.84, "currentIXG": 0.4057142857142857, "priorTOI": 11.79632768361582, "priorPPTOI": 0.403954802259887, "deploymentChange": 2.996529459241323, "ppTOIChange": 0.5912832929782083, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15986983667532353, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.27723817649182114, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26116662827043713, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24212603215045625, "goalProbability": 0.2298474202694836, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.2278611880972652, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7341493696203534, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.532301121195943, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.61244019138756, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.37857142857143, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22791712104689205, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2008870317553522, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9523162012055845, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 418.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1834.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.264086726333039, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.5174825174825175, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.204802259887007, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0848238880735559, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9258211156098269, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8573697582501956, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.892580564576567, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.080536912751677, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anders Lee", "Barrett Hayton", "Kailer Yamamoto" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 73, "fitPct": -2.4726294796724346, "index": 97.52737052032757, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.919053549190536, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.870485678704853, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.986301369863014, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.0983810709838115, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.125778331257784, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -4.754341391660148, "index": 95.24565860833985, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.4726294796724346, "zonePPFit": -4.754341391660148, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4750911381875125, "attemptProjection": 1.9494745571571679, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 5619.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.37857142857143, "projectedAttempts": 3.1428571428571432, "onNet": 0.5979097909790979, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 418.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2008870317553522, "projectedAttempts": 0.1723761289600984, "onNet": 0.5187920019912056, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.953452777737537, "ppAdjusted": 0.11597292707766031, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2122828476723404, "baseline": 1.0169491525423728, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479977", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7341493696203534, "adjustedSOG": 1.7341493696203534, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7341493696203534, "adjustedSOG": 1.7341493696203534, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 118, "beforeSOG": 1.7341493696203534, "adjustedSOG": 1.7341493696203534 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.39307991123791064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.39307991123791064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3250251926414678, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854878478337442, "modelSOG": 1.7341493696203534, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 59, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 93.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1935483870967742, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15986983667532353, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 65.12741686030844, "btb": { "id": "8479977", "name": "Kailer Yamamoto", "score": 65.12741686030844, "components": { "Goal model": 83.54755784061696, "SOG model": 69.9228791773779, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 91.51670951156812, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 46.130104463437796, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.35211950693162, "unitPlayers": [ "Anders Lee", "Barrett Hayton", "Kailer Yamamoto" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 52 } }, { "id": "8479980", "name": "Nicolas Hague", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.9090909090909091, "priorSOG": 0.9032258064516129, "currentTOI": 17.68939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 16.615151515151517, "ppShare": 0.005156202608431908, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025757575757575757, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.331, "currentIXG": 0.030090909090909092, "priorTOI": 19.63010752688172, "priorPPTOI": 0.06801075268817204, "deploymentChange": -1.9407135874877781, "ppTOIChange": -0.042253176930596284, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020850", "date": "20250204", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020663", "date": "20250109", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0574290293040293, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.051466929281309935, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.051466929281309935, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.050164938829089005, "goalProbability": 0.050164938829089005, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8961831656398717, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.954586904979026, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.615151515151517, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005156202608431908, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.027109125835240486, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9624940655166956, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.986559139784948, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0168428183313773, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9392607724360634, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8877895660856366, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.857993450431676, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020850", "date": "20250204", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020663", "date": "20250109", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": -2.0246409187978855, "index": 97.97535908120211, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.187270501836, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.9302325581395349, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8604651162790697, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.520195838433292, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.5532435740514074, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.94859241126071, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.0246409187978855, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8172823722518846, "attemptProjection": 0.9656937712788702, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 10966.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.615151515151517, "projectedAttempts": 2.363636363636364, "onNet": 0.38100736201929675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.027109125835240486, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8005789808562864, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8914880717653775, "baseline": 0.9032258064516129, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479980", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8961831656398717, "adjustedSOG": 0.8961831656398717, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8961831656398717, "adjustedSOG": 0.8961831656398717, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 319, "beforeSOG": 0.8961831656398717, "adjustedSOG": 0.8961831656398717 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.05404508155884691, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05404508155884691, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0526106042517235, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782967032967033, "modelSOG": 0.8961831656398717, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 62, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 140.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0574290293040293, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 26.057266076978852, "btb": { "id": "8479980", "name": "Nicolas Hague", "score": 26.057266076978852, "components": { "Goal model": 13.367609254498715, "SOG model": 18.251928020565554, "Unit attack": 3.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 3.341902313624679, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.49638395792242, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7026126526043763, "unitPlayers": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 385 } }, { "id": "8479983", "name": "Mario Ferraro", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.146341463414634, "currentTOI": 19.62727272727273, "currentFiveTOI": 17.256060606060604, "ppShare": 0.007823129251700681, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03484848484848485, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.524, "currentIXG": 0.047636363636363636, "priorTOI": 21.028048780487804, "priorPPTOI": 0.046341463414634146, "deploymentChange": -1.4007760532150755, "ppTOIChange": -0.011492978566149295, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020773", "date": "20260119", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020243", "date": "20251108", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020788", "date": "20250125", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06497578504981895, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.07820621769441838, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07983240970467863, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0752262978218762, "goalProbability": 0.07672893530797617, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1502637486099967, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.203620974097585, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.425322679778734, "Current_PP_SOG60": 156.52173913043478, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.256060606060604, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007823129251700681, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04226267779839209, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 23.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7626937466595405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.11280487804878, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009221734171378651, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9257759857638688, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9261099597847071, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.165461382701764, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020773", "date": "20260119", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020243", "date": "20251108", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020788", "date": "20250125", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020429", "date": "20241207", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Tyrel Bauer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 127, "fitPct": -2.4741338078710413, "index": 97.52586619212896, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.0498687664042, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2047244094488194, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9448818897637797, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.094488188976378, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.482939632545931, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.223097112860893, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 14.071297270405907, "index": 114.0712972704059, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.4741338078710413, "zonePPFit": 14.071297270405907, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3963825276666215, "attemptProjection": 1.08723210143915, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 11389.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.256060606060604, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363633, "onNet": 0.44679683570350726, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 23.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04226267779839209, "projectedAttempts": 0.11025046382189241, "onNet": 0.4335511982570806, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0653735300086664, "ppAdjusted": 0.08552469363512841, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2418073145528856, "baseline": 1.146341463414634, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479983", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020020", "date": "20251009", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.203620974097585, "adjustedSOG": 1.203620974097585, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.203620974097585, "adjustedSOG": 1.203620974097585, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 246, "beforeSOG": 1.203620974097585, "adjustedSOG": 1.203620974097585 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 186.0, "goalExpected": 0.07109748073253573, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07109748073253573, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06862890303452025, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778001879397676, "modelSOG": 1.203620974097585, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06878306878306878, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06497578504981895, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.470834856546517, "btb": { "id": "8479983", "name": "Mario Ferraro", "score": 31.470834856546517, "components": { "Goal model": 25.96401028277635, "SOG model": 37.01799485861183, "Unit attack": 9.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 9.768637532133676, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 59.23890923890924, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8228844281998338, "unitPlayers": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Tyrel Bauer" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 349 } }, { "id": "8479987", "name": "Morgan Geekie", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 2.234567901234568, "currentTOI": 17.252777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 14.041666666666666, "ppShare": 0.6512278520360585, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.909722222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.953, "currentIXG": 0.24608333333333332, "priorTOI": 17.405761316872425, "priorPPTOI": 2.812139917695473, "deploymentChange": -0.1529835390946488, "ppTOIChange": 0.09758230452674876, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1937577906591976, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 343.0, "goalExpected": 0.2886059591023614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2886059591023614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2506925949990338, "goalProbability": 0.2506925949990338, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.489519250402649, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2047477744807122, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.155131264916467, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.041666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6512278520360585, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0461948110864028, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0063949546692474, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2095.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.197140932564928, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.224043316016683, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.745884773662553, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6413387163268188, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.052885837782863, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7700394265567669, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8942230389341908, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.27906976744186, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Fraser Minten", "Morgan Geekie" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": -7.665352448107768, "index": 92.33464755189223, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.636737844095705, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.144069976845895, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.66992539233342, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.25057885258554, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.115255981476718, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.183431952662722, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": -10.377946961466222, "index": 89.62205303853378, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.26829268292683, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.390243902439025, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.292682926829269, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 62.764227642276424, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.796747967479677, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.665352448107768, "zonePPFit": -10.377946961466222, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8599667332201525, "attemptProjection": 1.2616774510154354, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 10110.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.041666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.4328254280330957, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2095.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0461948110864028, "projectedAttempts": 0.8724185616476572, "onNet": 0.5179144385026738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7505627838714535, "ppAdjusted": 0.3102593082463404, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.060822092117794, "baseline": 2.234567901234568, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479987", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5303204157645036, "adjustedSOG": 1.5199176024516827, "reductionPct": 0.6797800777965768, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7505627838714535, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7505627838714535, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7461394206986283, "afterRecentZones": 0.7505627838714535, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7461394206986283, "adjusted": 0.7461394206986283, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9491264822134388, "oldChartFactor": 0.7700394265567669, "newChartFactor": 0.7628507256001502, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1910501323086962, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7647995270342901, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3102593082463404, "afterPlayerForm": 0.297344649231131, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3102593082463404, "afterRecentZones": 0.3102593082463404, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3102593082463404, "adjusted": 0.297344649231131, "playerFactor": 0.958374628344896, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7495527728085867, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5199176024516827, "adjustedSOG": 1.489519250402649, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 168, "beforeSOG": 1.489519250402649, "adjustedSOG": 1.489519250402649 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.2072662286520443, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19935903926361231, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.187196770328008, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6452465888174053 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12834701262024534, "modelSOG": 1.489519250402649, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 73.0, "historyShots": 343.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.21282798833819241, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1937577906591976, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.87311754194123, "btb": { "id": "8479987", "name": "Morgan Geekie", "score": 61.87311754194123, "components": { "Goal model": 84.5758354755784, "SOG model": 57.0694087403599, "Unit attack": 69.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.586206896551722, "Shot quality": 75.83547557840618, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 65.71699905033239, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.846579866867944, "unitPlayers": [ "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Fraser Minten", "Morgan Geekie" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 69 } }, { "id": "8479996", "name": "Cody Glass", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.4857142857142858, "currentTOI": 12.566666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 10.122727272727273, "ppShare": 0.06647763074984248, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3196969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.697, "currentIXG": 0.15427272727272728, "priorTOI": 13.613809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.36714285714285716, "deploymentChange": -1.047142857142859, "ppTOIChange": -0.04744588744588746, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.8 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12495561991223358, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.1641671446986192, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16296087893005595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1513998289941048, "goalProbability": 0.1503755740189636, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.102425497514122, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3138036113455884, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.004939380332286, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.061611374407583, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.122727272727273, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06647763074984248, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3673392717343568, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0494556571212856, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 211.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.774478094678036, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.669260700389105, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.146428571428572, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09466114269543643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.832416018219776, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.35483870967742, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": -9.241428525807933, "index": 90.75857147419207, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.400265369305616, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.8062804068996, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.81556833259619, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.773109243697478, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.845201238390093, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.359575409111013, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": -11.722502255983102, "index": 88.2774977440169, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.241428525807933, "zonePPFit": -11.722502255983102, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2751518015695713, "attemptProjection": 1.2126155839596415, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 6681.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.122727272727273, "projectedAttempts": 2.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.527575656009774, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 211.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3673392717343568, "projectedAttempts": 0.20891332989631672, "onNet": 0.5196963185790001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9726942197761359, "ppAdjusted": 0.08937129117028861, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2438836927646064, "baseline": 1.4857142857142858, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8479996", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.340615929944478, "adjustedSOG": 1.340615929944478, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.340615929944478, "adjustedSOG": 1.3138036113455884, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 218, "beforeSOG": 1.3138036113455884, "adjustedSOG": 1.3138036113455884 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.20062729061881673, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2050076366487576, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18178266799381415, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35762367464336475 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861197792704643, "modelSOG": 1.3138036113455884, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 211.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12322274881516587, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12495561991223358, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.60122665638826, "btb": { "id": "8479996", "name": "Cody Glass", "score": 42.60122665638826, "components": { "Goal model": 55.526992287917736, "SOG model": 44.2159383033419, "Unit attack": 45.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 48.0719794344473, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 46.50997150997151, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.409923241024889, "unitPlayers": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 237 } }, { "id": "8479998", "name": "Mikey Anderson", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.7625, "currentTOI": 17.621666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 15.219999999999999, "ppShare": 0.0064, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.026666666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.252, "currentIXG": 0.0252, "priorTOI": 20.570208333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.065625, "deploymentChange": -2.9485416666666673, "ppTOIChange": -0.03895833333333334, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06684284410823581, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.0439451271137319, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04450811725436767, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04299353026054446, "goalProbability": 0.043532163830610725, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05386335700662617, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6574395165258589, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3653088042049935, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.219999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0064, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.027330909090909086, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4955939372576665, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.73125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01539758312191214, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.150078769166812, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3300970873786406, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mikey Anderson", "Brian Dumoulin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": 5.002625638893733, "index": 105.00262563889373, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.20000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.002625638893733, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.69, "attemptProjection": 0.5295221650539418, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9132.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.219999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 1.0999999999999999, "onNet": 0.42551736907322213, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 16.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.027330909090909086, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6097610825269708, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6097610825269708, "baseline": 0.7625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479998", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6708566495161825, "adjustedSOG": 0.6708566495161825, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6708566495161825, "adjustedSOG": 0.6574395165258589, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 367, "beforeSOG": 0.6574395165258589, "adjustedSOG": 0.6574395165258589 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.03351610328577953, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03351610328577953, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.032960661404811506, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057775538711671896, "modelSOG": 0.6574395165258589, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0728476821192053, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06684284410823581, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 23.774476285738356, "btb": { "id": "8479998", "name": "Mikey Anderson", "score": 23.774476285738356, "components": { "Goal model": 8.483290488431876, "SOG model": 5.912596401028278, "Unit attack": 6.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 4.884318766066838, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 66.82692307692308, "Goalie H2H": 53.26365969930326 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.748016419540202, "unitPlayers": [ "Mikey Anderson", "Brian Dumoulin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 389 } }, { "id": "8479999", "name": "Casey Mittelstadt", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.1267605633802817, "currentTOI": 13.906944444444443, "currentFiveTOI": 12.297222222222222, "ppShare": 0.26639726453217283, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1902777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.094, "currentIXG": 0.2578333333333333, "priorTOI": 15.16244131455399, "priorPPTOI": 1.6596244131455398, "deploymentChange": -1.2554968701095461, "ppTOIChange": -0.469346635367762, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020415", "date": "20241205", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020233", "date": "20241109", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15463115284644374, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 203.0, "goalExpected": 0.17579866382287462, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17579866382287462, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1612131555257348, "goalProbability": 0.1612131555257348, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.136890339280153, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.912130110684436, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.200700116686114, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.297222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26639726453217283, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2461045122200702, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0063949546692474, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 857.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.300530326340748, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.61951909476662, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.96924882629108, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3784951751560295, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9176080040573562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8568547062008742, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.954514128187457, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.049088359046284, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020415", "date": "20241205", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020233", "date": "20241109", "team": "COL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Casey Mittelstadt", "Elias Lindholm", "James Hagens" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 111, "fitPct": -4.77150979330419, "index": 95.22849020669581, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.486486486486487, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.486486486486484, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.693693693693696, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.126126126126128, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.905405405405407, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.301801801801801, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": -12.359968715246964, "index": 87.64003128475304, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 44.21052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.947368421052634, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.77150979330419, "zonePPFit": -12.359968715246964, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2783222444067175, "attemptProjection": 1.144559688201081, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8854.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.297222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5494787287708087, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 857.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2461045122200702, "projectedAttempts": 0.2617255684942972, "onNet": 0.5485823832105742, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1111198399633815, "ppAdjusted": 0.10032112634051772, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2114409663038992, "baseline": 1.1267605633802817, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479999", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1775688051344524, "adjustedSOG": 1.1600921829389317, "reductionPct": 1.4841274768250368, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1111198399633815, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0819921363041807, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1111198399633815, "afterRecentZones": 1.1111198399633815, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1111198399633815, "adjusted": 1.0819921363041807, "playerFactor": 0.9737852726487534, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8568547062008742, "newChartFactor": 0.8536310811445743, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8276657180248863, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1192188200501805, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.10032112634051772, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10032112634051772, "afterRecentDefense": 0.10032112634051772, "afterRecentZones": 0.10032112634051772, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.10032112634051772, "adjusted": 0.10032112634051772, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.587037037037037, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1600921829389317, "adjustedSOG": 1.136890339280153, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 263, "beforeSOG": 1.136890339280153, "adjustedSOG": 1.136890339280153 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.20230771739763423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19458969480124685, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18315646770121954, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6328808366880295 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853239312472456, "modelSOG": 1.136890339280153, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 71, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 203.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16748768472906403, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15463115284644374, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.3905236912949, "btb": { "id": "8479999", "name": "Casey Mittelstadt", "score": 56.3905236912949, "components": { "Goal model": 58.868894601542415, "SOG model": 32.64781491002571, "Unit attack": 80.95238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 78.66323907455013, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.81861348528015, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2313879215214305, "unitPlayers": [ "Casey Mittelstadt", "Elias Lindholm", "James Hagens" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 112 } }, { "id": "8480002", "name": "Nico Hischier", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.3636363636363638, "priorSOG": 2.573170731707317, "currentTOI": 18.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.384848484848483, "ppShare": 0.6405166981726528, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.08030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.148, "currentIXG": 0.46799999999999997, "priorTOI": 20.716666666666665, "priorPPTOI": 2.8646341463414635, "deploymentChange": -2.583333333333332, "ppTOIChange": 0.21566888396156658, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15429064614647384, "goalHistoryGoals": 68.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.34653836303905367, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3439920717845194, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2928683089537659, "goalProbability": 0.29106545138690676, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18028575668591618, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.246010187228537, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7254710056275995, "Current_PP_SOG60": 23.020167240531233, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.384848484848483, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6405166981726528, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5393399973267643, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0494556571212856, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2033.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.765863590091619, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.347381864623244, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.974593495934961, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7385940824433241, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.934362355762026, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.804410911201394, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": -8.851136955680545, "index": 91.14886304431946, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.024425989252565, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.2647777234978, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.92574499267221, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.646311675622863, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6893014167073765, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.44943820224719105, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": -15.144324037614012, "index": 84.85567596238599, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.939024390243903, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.432926829268293, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.8109756097561, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4390243902439024, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.890243902439025, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.851136955680545, "zonePPFit": -15.144324037614012, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1587916022226032, "attemptProjection": 2.0498045215844343, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8174.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.384848484848483, "projectedAttempts": 2.7272727272727266, "onNet": 0.48141278610891874, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 2033.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.5393399973267643, "projectedAttempts": 1.984676634015008, "onNet": 0.5655682400885219, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0621765688936318, "ppAdjusted": 1.042121493009887, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1042980619035188, "baseline": 2.573170731707317, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480002", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.291847129825038, "adjustedSOG": 2.291847129825038, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.291847129825038, "adjustedSOG": 2.246010187228537, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 57, "beforeSOG": 2.246010187228537, "adjustedSOG": 2.246010187228537 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 67.0, "goalHistoryShots": 418.0, "goalExpected": 0.37707288089947305, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3853056078218764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31413391446278804, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5623368596954226 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848298580752282, "modelSOG": 2.246010187228537, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 68.0, "historyShots": 424.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16037735849056603, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15429064614647384, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.18360059296396, "btb": { "id": "8480002", "name": "Nico Hischier", "score": 68.18360059296396, "components": { "Goal model": 94.08740359897172, "SOG model": 85.60411311053984, "Unit attack": 88.0952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 65.51724137931035, "Shot quality": 97.17223650385604, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 46.86609686609687, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4770393227530136, "unitPlayers": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 26 } }, { "id": "8480003", "name": "Jesper Boqvist", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 0.8767123287671232, "currentTOI": 11.751851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 10.84074074074074, "ppShare": 0.07115568290353391, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2759259259259259, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.155, "currentIXG": 0.23944444444444443, "priorTOI": 11.828995433789954, "priorPPTOI": 0.44885844748858444, "deploymentChange": -0.07714358193810256, "ppTOIChange": -0.17293252156265854, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020505", "date": "20251213", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020185", "date": "20251101", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020174", "date": "20241102", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12023453896879464, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.1317222390906127, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13075437168775808, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12341555784042407, "goalProbability": 0.12256672962268991, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.084882821773416, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0955440942373436, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.379569525111036, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.84074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07115568290353391, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3931890538624063, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 149.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2094.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.516254623321005, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.555479452054794, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08779985117344657, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.863025962399284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020505", "date": "20251213", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020185", "date": "20251101", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020174", "date": "20241102", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020168", "date": "20241101", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": -9.283138340011575, "index": 90.71686165998842, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.284299858557283, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.531824611032533, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.42008486562942, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.096181046676097, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.68741159830269, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.9801980198019802, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.283138340011575, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3555555555555556, "attemptProjection": 1.2018351293445506, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 5854.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.84074074074074, "projectedAttempts": 1.7777777777777777, "onNet": 0.5613561356135613, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 149.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3931890538624063, "projectedAttempts": 0.3166623252583138, "onNet": 0.48958446349137463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9922486204597061, "ppAdjusted": 0.06422449976812464, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2786953424500531, "baseline": 0.8767123287671232, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480003", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1179021369768811, "adjustedSOG": 1.1179021369768811, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1179021369768811, "adjustedSOG": 1.0955440942373436, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 276, "beforeSOG": 1.0955440942373436, "adjustedSOG": 1.0955440942373436 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 164.0, "goalExpected": 0.20401395845351245, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20846824645295647, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18454901132686535, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3624175998976603 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286215282673058, "modelSOG": 1.0955440942373436, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 73, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 165.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11515151515151516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12023453896879464, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.94065793348021, "btb": { "id": "8480003", "name": "Jesper Boqvist", "score": 41.94065793348021, "components": { "Goal model": 44.987146529562985, "SOG model": 29.30591259640103, "Unit attack": 54.76190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 73.00771208226222, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 38.156288156288156, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.590371481154082, "unitPlayers": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 249 } }, { "id": "8480012", "name": "Elias Pettersson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.3846153846153846, "priorSOG": 1.7837837837837838, "currentTOI": 19.584615384615383, "currentFiveTOI": 13.3, "ppShare": 0.6675006950236309, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.078205128205128, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.233, "currentIXG": 0.17176923076923079, "priorTOI": 18.96148648648649, "priorPPTOI": 2.9412162162162163, "deploymentChange": 0.6231288981288934, "ppTOIChange": 0.1369889119889116, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13052809728968773, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.20231460467785595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20036113518183685, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18316209351215051, "goalProbability": 0.18156486601896535, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1597227493185166, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5499697680327686, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.470213996529786, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.99625156184923, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.3, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6675006950236309, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.3352862525297895, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.004511900267846, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2401.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.662295081967213, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.994486560992419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.738738738738737, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.779516251186922, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0157202178719733, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0653694157901454, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7800214439783342, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0821172551205034, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.371137238580793, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.238665526090676, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": 2.1789805263381794, "index": 102.17898052633818, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.619834710743802, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.256198347107436, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.55096418732782, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.619834710743802, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.30853994490358, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.644628099173554, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": -7.332618534055527, "index": 92.66738146594447, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 41.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.1789805263381794, "zonePPFit": -7.332618534055527, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4113159263129718, "attemptProjection": 1.5816057702983182, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 10374.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.3, "projectedAttempts": 1.846153846153846, "onNet": 0.4799057147123446, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2401.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.3352862525297895, "projectedAttempts": 1.1668639950541537, "onNet": 0.5003782588454376, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8805555692022675, "ppAdjusted": 0.46205912525722376, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.496460848305645, "baseline": 1.7837837837837838, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480012", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6113900224969004, "adjustedSOG": 1.5816018041150701, "reductionPct": 1.8486038740436417, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8805555692022675, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8524059317199822, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8583482515842678, "afterRecentZones": 0.8805555692022675, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8583482515842678, "adjusted": 0.8309085385658831, "playerFactor": 0.9680319579288026, "defenseFactor": 0.9747803336953302, "oldChartFactor": 1.0653694157901454, "newChartFactor": 1.0653694157901454, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7929114255765201, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8805582830691543, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.46205912525722376, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46205912525722376, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46205912525722376, "afterRecentZones": 0.46205912525722376, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.46205912525722376, "adjusted": 0.46205912525722376, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7800214439783342, "newChartFactor": 0.7772142102944759, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5467869222096955, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5816018041150701, "adjustedSOG": 1.5499697680327686, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 151, "beforeSOG": 1.5499697680327686, "adjustedSOG": 1.5499697680327686 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 258.0, "goalExpected": 0.20807065754371687, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21265678902355226, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18785034981484522, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.37160973083634197 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128595869269979, "modelSOG": 1.5499697680327686, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 74, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 259.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13127413127413126, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13052809728968773, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.77806491301332, "btb": { "id": "8480012", "name": "Elias Pettersson", "score": 49.77806491301332, "components": { "Goal model": 65.80976863753213, "SOG model": 61.43958868894602, "Unit attack": 14.285714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.48275862068966, "Shot quality": 54.37017994858612, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 54.86844310373722, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0387563450233466, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 176 } }, { "id": "8480014", "name": "Gabriel Vilardi", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.8181818181818181, "priorSOG": 1.829268292682927, "currentTOI": 17.415151515151514, "currentFiveTOI": 13.246969696969698, "ppShare": 0.7200680272108844, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2075757575757575, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.71, "currentIXG": 0.3372727272727273, "priorTOI": 18.739634146341466, "priorPPTOI": 2.984552845528455, "deploymentChange": -1.3244826311899516, "ppTOIChange": 0.2230229120473024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17710766367012784, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.3271835637408445, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33398690128777475, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2790486096547768, "goalProbability": 0.28393683832893113, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4888228674154338, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.847371011286337, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.529337755919021, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.903637222484647, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.246969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7200680272108844, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.890003865182437, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9841867136275031, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2117.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.015103239955311, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.051757014437483, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.735975609756096, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6539766805918034, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8770600744284955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8379024613956525, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8193905089493693, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.518072289156627, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.52, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": -5.403251286811582, "index": 94.59674871318842, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.08695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.4472049689441, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.484472049689444, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 79 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.192546583850932, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.080745341614906, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.70807453416149, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": -6.020316368354358, "index": 93.97968363164564, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.403251286811582, "zonePPFit": -6.020316368354358, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6878084415584416, "attemptProjection": 2.0310705391521124, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8743.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.246969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 2.6363636363636367, "onNet": 0.4563228474746209, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2117.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.890003865182437, "projectedAttempts": 1.6537569573283861, "onNet": 0.4993598784854074, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9672778358152996, "ppAdjusted": 0.7103434727217959, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.859439490355277, "baseline": 1.829268292682927, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480014", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.847371011286337, "adjustedSOG": 1.847371011286337, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.847371011286337, "adjustedSOG": 1.847371011286337, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 101, "beforeSOG": 1.847371011286337, "adjustedSOG": 1.847371011286337 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.3354500263454316, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3354500263454316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2849837622065921, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843065468051132, "modelSOG": 1.847371011286337, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 300.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17710766367012784, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.900085433565216, "btb": { "id": "8480014", "name": "Gabriel Vilardi", "score": 58.900085433565216, "components": { "Goal model": 91.25964010282776, "SOG model": 74.293059125964, "Unit attack": 35.714285714285715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 48.275862068965516, "Shot quality": 88.17480719794345, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 40.435490435490436, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2656322533410593, "unitPlayers": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 90 } }, { "id": "8480015", "name": "Owen Tippett", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.728395061728395, "currentTOI": 16.44074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 13.631481481481481, "ppShare": 0.3859922178988327, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8370370370370372, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.484, "currentIXG": 0.1648888888888889, "priorTOI": 16.843004115226336, "priorPPTOI": 2.0946502057613166, "deploymentChange": -0.4022633744855959, "ppTOIChange": -0.2576131687242793, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11672784998181082, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.29197449641974743, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2887346384716721, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2532124185124922, "goalProbability": 0.2507890091999368, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24234093125554135, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.5013267739039526, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.631481481481481, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3859922178988327, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.883004201447781, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 992.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2570.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.648946426112106, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.145383104125736, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.446296296296298, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49192724502356494, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0439699081306433, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0112340063451988, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.070211072334194, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9814043584574907, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 230, "fitPct": 1.4656636043547735, "index": 101.46566360435477, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 33.70434782608696, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.895652173913044, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.591304347826085, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.486956521739131, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.130434782608697, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.191304347826087, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": 0.37446687817329405, "index": 100.3744668781733, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.096774193548384, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.74193548387097, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.967741935483872, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.967741935483872, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.225806451612903, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.4656636043547735, "zonePPFit": 0.37446687817329405, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.475742644117009, "attemptProjection": 2.2870355301989047, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 7361.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.631481481481481, "projectedAttempts": 3.8888888888888893, "onNet": 0.5064647641234712, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 992.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.883004201447781, "projectedAttempts": 0.5694569157604177, "onNet": 0.5174253109372997, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.0640990096416627, "ppAdjusted": 0.31729007751629396, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.381389087157957, "baseline": 2.728395061728395, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480015", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.520191476986132, "adjustedSOG": 2.5013267739039526, "reductionPct": 0.7485424522084116, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.0640990096416627, "afterPlayerForm": 2.063725276989991, "afterRecentDefense": 2.0621223886367073, "afterRecentZones": 2.0640990096416627, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.0621223886367073, "adjusted": 2.061749013878628, "playerFactor": 0.999818936664411, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 1.0439699081306433, "newChartFactor": 1.0439699081306433, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9988804830885097, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.31729007751629396, "afterPlayerForm": 0.29289074982211616, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3127215847950315, "afterRecentZones": 0.3167683544269439, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.31220737372167273, "adjusted": 0.28819890147569605, "playerFactor": 0.9231008801624916, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.0112340063451988, "newChartFactor": 1.008087260883983, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.34384748700173307, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5013267739039526, "adjustedSOG": 2.5013267739039526, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.5013267739039526, "adjustedSOG": 2.5013267739039526 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.29053153088588957, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2851584514792898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.252134051935501, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4029157923703619 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865760490359732, "modelSOG": 2.5013267739039526, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 49.0, "historyShots": 430.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11395348837209303, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11672784998181082, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480018", "name": "Nick Suzuki", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 2.231707317073171, "currentTOI": 21.779629629629632, "currentFiveTOI": 15.787037037037038, "ppShare": 0.7144742630884294, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0074074074074075, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.98, "currentIXG": 0.44222222222222224, "priorTOI": 20.820528455284553, "priorPPTOI": 3.3699186991869916, "deploymentChange": 0.9591011743450792, "ppTOIChange": -0.3625112917795841, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15976497394676645, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 381.0, "goalExpected": 0.4357156905295752, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4567251036012906, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3531984083851939, "goalProbability": 0.3666455770157355, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.3447168630541628, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.727229127673224, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.756598240469208, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2167487684729066, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.787037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7144742630884294, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.06466157394446, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0129869856635516, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1624.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.19064402435117, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.119420989143546, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.224390243902441, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7093048128342246, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0762282262848515, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9759522962642161, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7979286350849397, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0503474087470652, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.756598240469208, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.2167487684729066, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 180, "fitPct": -0.801590124526129, "index": 99.19840987547387, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.908496732026144, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.647058823529413, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.490196078431373, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.614379084967322, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.751633986928105, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -6.735712163835345, "index": 93.26428783616466, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.380281690140844, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.21126760563379, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.028169014084508, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6901408450704227, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.801590124526129, "zonePPFit": -6.735712163835345, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9635267331228965, "attemptProjection": 3.3371530606884674, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8525.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.787037037037038, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.4827095684734128, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1624.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.06466157394446, "projectedAttempts": 0.679358476982762, "onNet": 0.48257515296621445, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9520194747159028, "ppAdjusted": 0.1983204221897792, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.150339896905682, "baseline": 2.231707317073171, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480018", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.7828868649726775, "adjustedSOG": 2.7828868649726775, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9520194747159028, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9520194747159028, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9520194747159028, "afterRecentZones": 1.9520194747159028, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9520194747159028, "adjusted": 1.9520194747159028, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9759522962642161, "newChartFactor": 0.9759522962642161, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0245274773298372, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1264171989753764, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1983204221897792, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1983204221897792, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1983204221897792, "afterRecentZones": 0.1983204221897792, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1983204221897792, "adjusted": 0.1983204221897792, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7979286350849397, "newChartFactor": 0.7979286350849397, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.601577909270217, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.7828868649726775, "adjustedSOG": 2.727229127673224, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.727229127673224, "adjustedSOG": 2.727229127673224 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 381.0, "goalExpected": 0.4419002321111995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4419002321111995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3571862355713592, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284695246839466, "modelSOG": 2.727229127673224, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 381.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1679790026246719, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15976497394676645, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480021", "name": "Jack Studnicka", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.8421052631578947, "currentTOI": 8.799999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 8.799999999999999, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.128, "currentIXG": 0.042666666666666665, "priorTOI": 7.095614035087719, "priorPPTOI": 0.07631578947368421, "deploymentChange": 1.7043859649122801, "ppTOIChange": -0.07631578947368421, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020442", "date": "20251206", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 4.85 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10993265947681802, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.052544726183571665, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.051961670297380316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05118811662770014, "goalProbability": 0.050634744966586244, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05533716611138967, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.4779719369442891, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.799999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 0.9877898672235583, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 834.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9554449544018597, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9702248312554257, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9269964196583922, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020442", "date": "20251206", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 4.85 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": -0.9925056248191453, "index": 99.00749437518085, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.631578947368425, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.2105263157894735, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.42105263157895, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9925056248191453, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3089988065527974, "attemptProjection": 0.1748881808841875, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1584.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.799999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 0.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.5198631938963432, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.24194349371849244, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.24194349371849244, "baseline": 0.8421052631578947, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480021", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4820082014942534, "adjustedSOG": 0.4779719369442891, "reductionPct": 0.8373850356594881, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.24194349371849244, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24194349371849244, "afterRecentDefense": 0.238391526909372, "afterRecentZones": 0.23872104423840357, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23521638613521864, "adjusted": 0.23521638613521864, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9853190232374951, "oldChartFactor": 0.9702248312554257, "newChartFactor": 0.9499885038862185, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9305477920626049, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4779719369442891, "adjustedSOG": 0.4779719369442891, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.4779719369442891, "adjustedSOG": 0.4779719369442891 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.037851564308666666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03715153887571508, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0371441475415375, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06742595568720519 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286212115878771, "modelSOG": 0.4779719369442891, "historyGames": 22, "seasonGames": { "2025": 19, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10993265947681802, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480023", "name": "Robert Thomas", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.59375, "currentTOI": 20.06060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 15.02121212121212, "ppShare": 0.5711318795430945, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.5, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.845, "currentIXG": 0.16772727272727272, "priorTOI": 19.015104166666667, "priorPPTOI": 2.48984375, "deploymentChange": 1.0455018939393916, "ppTOIChange": 0.010156250000000089, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16670786204906962, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.21664801274759019, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2056282711790028, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19478665573745993, "goalProbability": 0.18586434227150636, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8922313465953569, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2995668595631136, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.904982852531773, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.363636363636363, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.02121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5711318795430945, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.096227068189685, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1650.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.774362328319163, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.154063382491371, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.334375, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6036103815793364, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9666609120786707, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9477374417079348, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.290950744558992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.861580013504389, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Holloway", "Robert Thomas", "Jimmy Snuggerud" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": -1.111302930710977, "index": 98.88869706928902, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.54945054945055, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.208791208791208, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.54945054945055, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": 9.772367007821686, "index": 109.77236700782169, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545456, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.63636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.111302930710977, "zonePPFit": 9.772367007821686, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1300389487634535, "attemptProjection": 1.0768505831135915, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 9914.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.02121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 1.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.48569598389439855, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1650.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.096227068189685, "projectedAttempts": 0.22518015041379524, "onNet": 0.5389270878097694, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7336345119390069, "ppAdjusted": 0.18799207218133382, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1034447659385225, "baseline": 1.59375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480023", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2995668595631136, "adjustedSOG": 1.2995668595631136, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2995668595631136, "adjustedSOG": 1.2995668595631136, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 225, "beforeSOG": 1.2995668595631136, "adjustedSOG": 1.2995668595631136 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 256.0, "goalExpected": 0.15067260960925824, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1480954948607116, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13987074938056376, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22195105156597172 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848122475615995, "modelSOG": 1.2995668595631136, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 47.0, "historyShots": 259.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18146718146718147, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16670786204906962, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.206810353304085, "btb": { "id": "8480023", "name": "Robert Thomas", "score": 60.206810353304085, "components": { "Goal model": 69.9228791773779, "SOG model": 42.41645244215938, "Unit attack": 59.523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.86206896551724, "Shot quality": 53.98457583547558, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 58.251150558842866, "Goalie H2H": 50.97105864432597 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6757709992445045, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Holloway", "Robert Thomas", "Jimmy Snuggerud" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 80 } }, { "id": "8480027", "name": "Jason Robertson", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 3.597560975609756, "currentTOI": 20.1030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 15.389393939393939, "ppShare": 0.8453787352328006, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 36.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.686363636363636, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.332, "currentIXG": 0.3938181818181818, "priorTOI": 20.253048780487806, "priorPPTOI": 3.683130081300813, "deploymentChange": -0.15001847745750396, "ppTOIChange": 0.003233555062823079, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 10.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 18.0, "toi": 21.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 5.666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1524091475660429, "goalHistoryGoals": 85.0, "goalHistoryShots": 542.0, "goalExpected": 0.44379446769349384, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.44379446769349384, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.35840272375538373, "goalProbability": 0.35840272375538373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.911862409709929, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.443142660234321, "Current_PP_SOG60": 20.71516646115906, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.389393939393939, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8453787352328006, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.654341714574515, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0010657055328318, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2433.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.612690019828156, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.111859168920038, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.3760162601626, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7625014727416558, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9388981467454425, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8964498141577425, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9750394220614349, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9531739899081082, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.395394096659098, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.903520208604956, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 7.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 10.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 18.0, "toi": 21.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 286, "fitPct": -3.451672861408582, "index": 96.54832713859142, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.175501917437403, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.01601624182269, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.42567110309046, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.487029099932325, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636362, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.259418001353486, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": -0.832019264618836, "index": 99.16798073538116, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.956782713085234, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.384153661464584, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.82593037214886, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.384153661464584, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4489795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.451672861408582, "zonePPFit": -0.832019264618836, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9162289312309575, "attemptProjection": 2.903321455382076, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 10157.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.389393939393939, "projectedAttempts": 4.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.48168824617454176, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 2433.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.654341714574515, "projectedAttempts": 1.8925074230842123, "onNet": 0.59260375084733, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6880072270046584, "ppAdjusted": 1.1308588753927675, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.909775193306517, "baseline": 3.597560975609756, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480027", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.1848895062278126, "adjustedSOG": 3.131034849150461, "reductionPct": 1.6909427147171918, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6880072270046584, "afterPlayerForm": 1.673551514560933, "afterRecentDefense": 1.665152900427429, "afterRecentZones": 1.6880072270046584, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.665152900427429, "adjusted": 1.6508929072719922, "playerFactor": 0.9914362259755387, "defenseFactor": 0.973929739724079, "oldChartFactor": 0.8964498141577425, "newChartFactor": 0.8946481216034823, "playerRecentAttempts": 21.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.08333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9508391842193246, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8785529715762274, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.1308588753927675, "afterPlayerForm": 1.112009918514216, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0964915618699402, "afterRecentZones": 1.1308588753927675, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0964915618699402, "adjusted": 1.0782154333298481, "playerFactor": 0.9833321758455449, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.9750394220614349, "newChartFactor": 0.9750394220614349, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.283333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9012223731324855, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.131034849150461, "adjustedSOG": 3.131034849150461, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 16, "beforeSOG": 3.131034849150461, "adjustedSOG": 2.911862409709929 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 539.0, "goalExpected": 0.46341075207445936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.46341075207445936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3708658387338558, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846672737399545, "modelSOG": 2.911862409709929, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 85.0, "historyShots": 542.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15682656826568267, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1524091475660429, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 71.25085005215313, "btb": { "id": "8480027", "name": "Jason Robertson", "score": 71.25085005215313, "components": { "Goal model": 97.68637532133675, "SOG model": 96.1439588688946, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 93.10344827586206, "Shot quality": 93.573264781491, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.924704924704926, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4450000464940294, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 12 } }, { "id": "8480036", "name": "Miro Heiskanen", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.922077922077922, "currentTOI": 25.653030303030302, "currentFiveTOI": 17.653030303030302, "ppShare": 0.7585128561501042, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3075757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.33, "currentIXG": 0.12090909090909091, "priorTOI": 25.472943722943725, "priorPPTOI": 3.2536796536796535, "deploymentChange": 0.18008658008657719, "ppTOIChange": 0.05389610389610411, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.060266205298587824, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 278.0, "goalExpected": 0.10907890093458786, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10907890093458786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10334033257861823, "goalProbability": 0.10334033257861823, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8099513714885218, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.870740708952021, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.298213467704993, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.653030303030302, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7585128561501042, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.278844209994314, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2183.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.321781097664492, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.029270888770623, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.84978354978355, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6735943268351999, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9222928276573462, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8387418184646408, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8776769992597119, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.054286783976039, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.4615384615384617, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": -2.5902390780884588, "index": 97.40976092191154, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 39.8320987654321, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.187654320987654, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.128395061728395, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.725925925925928, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.479012345679013, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.6469135802469137, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -5.375272717845306, "index": 94.6247272821547, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.07692307692307, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5902390780884588, "zonePPFit": -5.375272717845306, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7600996169536787, "attemptProjection": 1.7446779448038159, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 11651.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.653030303030302, "projectedAttempts": 3.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4144314841858144, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2183.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.278844209994314, "projectedAttempts": 0.450597005496241, "onNet": 0.4202020202020202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4954732111830937, "ppAdjusted": 0.16600647878656277, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7523887808787473, "baseline": 1.922077922077922, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480036", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8202644373584171, "adjustedSOG": 1.8099513714885218, "reductionPct": 0.5665696509932205, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4954732111830937, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4954732111830937, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4954732111830937, "afterRecentZones": 1.4954732111830937, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4954732111830937, "adjusted": 1.4954732111830937, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9222928276573462, "newChartFactor": 0.9222928276573462, "playerRecentAttempts": 25.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 95.51666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1551014419187513, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.16600647878656277, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1512942968078612, "afterRecentDefense": 0.16328942070364857, "afterRecentZones": 0.16600647878656277, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.16328942070364855, "adjusted": 0.1488180356700706, "playerFactor": 0.9113758566157091, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.8387418184646408, "newChartFactor": 0.8387418184646408, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.437913741223671, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8099513714885218, "adjustedSOG": 1.8099513714885218, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 105, "beforeSOG": 1.8099513714885218, "adjustedSOG": 1.8099513714885218 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.1047873559089814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1047873559089814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0994840083673481, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780625602866198, "modelSOG": 1.8099513714885218, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 278.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06115107913669065, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060266205298587824, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.37597808987756, "btb": { "id": "8480036", "name": "Miro Heiskanen", "score": 53.37597808987756, "components": { "Goal model": 36.50385604113111, "SOG model": 73.26478149100257, "Unit attack": 62.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 93.10344827586206, "Shot quality": 35.2185089974293, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.5318138651472, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7171992848253383, "unitPlayers": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 139 } }, { "id": "8480049", "name": "Dylan Samberg", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.3181818181818181, "currentTOI": 22.46060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 19.64242424242424, "ppShare": 0.04795918367346939, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.21363636363636365, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.417, "currentIXG": 0.037909090909090906, "priorTOI": 21.82171717171717, "priorPPTOI": 0.1053030303030303, "deploymentChange": 0.6388888888888893, "ppTOIChange": 0.10833333333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04351162369316681, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.04880096478235482, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.049815714521718846, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04762933386152039, "goalProbability": 0.048595261576427864, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09659277149074719, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1215615653988722, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.332304844183894, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.64242424242424, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04795918367346939, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2590885899814471, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 141.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6988834851702173, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.433080808080806, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023074051550807852, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8967404819191427, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8970639813714945, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6687898089171975, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": -3.4419839360285778, "index": 96.55801606397142, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.3030303030303, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 89 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.4419839360285778, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9786152524052666, "attemptProjection": 1.00234754134855, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 12964.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.64242424242424, "projectedAttempts": 2.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.39452542609217967, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 141.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2590885899814471, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9904813968769084, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9904813968769084, "baseline": 1.3181818181818181, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480049", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1215615653988722, "adjustedSOG": 1.1215615653988722, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1215615653988722, "adjustedSOG": 1.1215615653988722, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 266, "beforeSOG": 1.1215615653988722, "adjustedSOG": 1.1215615653988722 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.04996251779771993, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04996251779771993, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04873492065737527, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05792417365791042, "modelSOG": 1.1215615653988722, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 66, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03608247422680412, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04351162369316681, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 26.955716364786184, "btb": { "id": "8480049", "name": "Dylan Samberg", "score": 26.955716364786184, "components": { "Goal model": 12.853470437017995, "SOG model": 31.876606683804628, "Unit attack": 29.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 6.426735218508997, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 36.853886853886856, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.192688502397304, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 379 } }, { "id": "8480064", "name": "Josh Norris", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.5681818181818181, "currentTOI": 14.895454545454545, "currentFiveTOI": 11.578787878787878, "ppShare": 0.3072429906542056, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.593939393939394, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.368, "currentIXG": 0.21527272727272725, "priorTOI": 15.83219696969697, "priorPPTOI": 3.06780303030303, "deploymentChange": -0.9367424242424249, "ppTOIChange": -1.473863636363636, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020954", "date": "20250301", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17571455063312202, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.24248402818299014, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23805390273749708, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21532371981540294, "goalProbability": 0.21183979404393918, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3483925771463753, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3799883237289634, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.7108086888249145, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.844106463878327, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.578787878787878, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3072429906542056, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6139373436467481, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0027135944463237, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1052.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.034484950576868, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.111989134461044, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.91780303030303, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6400742508413938, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.070626994749305, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1363682117390064, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.78220366206232, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.7735849056603774, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020954", "date": "20250301", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020361", "date": "20241127", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Zucker", "Josh Norris", "Ryan McLeod" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": 4.545607057966876, "index": 104.54560705796688, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.377880184331799, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.612903225806452, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.47926267281106, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.94930875576037, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": 15.411120610207249, "index": 115.41112061020725, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 64.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.545607057966876, "zonePPFit": 15.411120610207249, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3480778506442932, "attemptProjection": 1.2637128031432614, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7642.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.578787878787878, "projectedAttempts": 1.6363636363636365, "onNet": 0.522250336598728, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1052.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6139373436467481, "projectedAttempts": 0.36819863353157756, "onNet": 0.5189668252982964, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9948861343275662, "ppAdjusted": 0.22010010165712018, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3058953268937774, "baseline": 1.5681818181818181, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 44, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480064", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4108099234089937, "adjustedSOG": 1.4081513507438403, "reductionPct": 0.188443008589656, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9948861343275662, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9948861343275662, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9948861343275663, "afterRecentZones": 0.9919293101581376, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9919293101581377, "adjusted": 0.9919293101581377, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1363682117390064, "newChartFactor": 1.129940307229051, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1215145289110655, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3936221524642403, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.22010010165712018, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22010010165712018, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21862597138462658, "afterRecentZones": 0.22010010165712018, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21862597138462658, "adjusted": 0.21862597138462658, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.551622418879056, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4081513507438403, "adjustedSOG": 1.3799883237289634, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 196, "beforeSOG": 1.3799883237289634, "adjustedSOG": 1.3799883237289634 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.19647815603131966, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19621890944418127, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17838072147497913, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02130296062907988 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284864507600793, "modelSOG": 1.3799883237289634, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 44, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 178.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.20224719101123595, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17571455063312202, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.51758806028439, "btb": { "id": "8480064", "name": "Josh Norris", "score": 55.51758806028439, "components": { "Goal model": 77.12082262210797, "SOG model": 49.87146529562982, "Unit attack": 41.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 69.15167095115682, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 46.621896621896624, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3376741746006524, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Zucker", "Josh Norris", "Ryan McLeod" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 118 } }, { "id": "8480068", "name": "Ryan Poehling", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.2533333333333334, "currentTOI": 14.246666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.866666666666667, "ppShare": 0.08851063829787234, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3466666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.118, "currentIXG": 0.22360000000000002, "priorTOI": 15.067333333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.29933333333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.820666666666666, "ppTOIChange": 0.04733333333333334, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.23076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13550933895645656, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.17754319832245846, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17754319832245846, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16267517247342322, "goalProbability": 0.16267517247342322, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3101916051668492, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.521472392638037, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.866666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.08851063829787234, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.4163301096067054, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9834267095119533, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1175.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.270180120080053, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.6726057906458798, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.991999999999999, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05716459391059978, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0470973460042345, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.521472392638037, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": 12.212071502131437, "index": 112.21207150213144, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.396825396825397, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.079365079365079, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.61904761904761, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.301587301587304, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.380952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.212071502131437, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.35, "attemptProjection": 1.3461942394450523, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3260.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.866666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5085503814785584, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 104.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.4163301096067054, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1480971197225263, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3480971197225262, "baseline": 1.2533333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480068", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3101916051668492, "adjustedSOG": 1.3101916051668492, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3101916051668492, "adjustedSOG": 1.3101916051668492, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.3101916051668492, "adjustedSOG": 1.3101916051668492 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.1700203694712374, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1641716040815212, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15635236823480841, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4948755016048023 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858540196156185, "modelSOG": 1.3101916051668492, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 75, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 172.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13953488372093023, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13550933895645656, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480074", "name": "Alexandre Texier", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.4509803921568627, "currentTOI": 12.98030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 11.666666666666668, "ppShare": 0.2824457593688363, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.084848484848485, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.619, "currentIXG": 0.1471818181818182, "priorTOI": 13.653921568627451, "priorPPTOI": 0.973202614379085, "deploymentChange": -0.6736185383244209, "ppTOIChange": 0.1116458704694, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.8181818181818183, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11658046271254174, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.16763772707247962, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1757209114310428, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1543398610273339, "goalProbability": 0.16114793530685873, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6808074279524817, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4379572972345487, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.545454545454546, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.666666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2824457593688363, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2115211284442053, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 0.956490660479933, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 716.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.460771971178314, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.25319006044325, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.200326797385621, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20484093530460315, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.074883292669126, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1908084503807914, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9136507987687571, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.729939603106126, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 2.4961097556375336, "index": 102.49610975563753, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 29.349978476108486, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.529487731381835, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.983211364614725, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.355574687903573, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.588893671975893, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.192854068015498, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": 6.360281679359716, "index": 106.36028167935972, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 45.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.4961097556375336, "zonePPFit": 6.360281679359716, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2537373802511456, "attemptProjection": 1.7406700715251873, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7700.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.666666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.0909090909090917, "onNet": 0.46487505893446485, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 716.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2115211284442053, "projectedAttempts": 0.30457235072619687, "onNet": 0.4803470207839902, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.33926771997577, "ppAdjusted": 0.06702691500330553, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4972037258881663, "baseline": 1.4509803921568627, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480074", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.478714392395645, "adjustedSOG": 1.4673033645250497, "reductionPct": 0.7716857243884934, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.33926771997577, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3202493401914446, "afterRecentDefense": 1.33926771997577, "afterRecentZones": 1.33926771997577, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.33926771997577, "adjusted": 1.3202493401914446, "playerFactor": 0.98579941896556, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.074883292669126, "newChartFactor": 1.074883292669126, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9040742045321121, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0956331264567947, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06702691500330553, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06702691500330553, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06702691500330553, "afterRecentZones": 0.06702691500330553, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06702691500330553, "adjusted": 0.06702691500330553, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1908084503807914, "newChartFactor": 1.1724091527246845, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.8718954248366013, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4673033645250497, "adjustedSOG": 1.4379572972345487, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 180, "beforeSOG": 1.4379572972345487, "adjustedSOG": 1.4379572972345487 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.1779643981272878, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1779643981272878, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16302777926318765, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862730588297477, "modelSOG": 1.4379572972345487, "historyGames": 93, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 51, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 139.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1079136690647482, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11658046271254174, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 52.70884795646277, "btb": { "id": "8480074", "name": "Alexandre Texier", "score": 52.70884795646277, "components": { "Goal model": 56.81233933161954, "SOG model": 53.98457583547558, "Unit attack": 83.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 13.793103448275861, "Shot quality": 46.01542416452442, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 44.49192782526116, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2657308895622252, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 146 } }, { "id": "8480075", "name": "Cameron Crotty", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "currentTOI": 11.15, "currentFiveTOI": 10.472222222222223, "ppShare": 0.004081632653061225, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 14.919444444444444, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -3.769444444444444, "ppTOIChange": 0.022222222222222223, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055080071512800026, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.02373998457788435, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024211558090940374, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02346040789593018, "goalProbability": 0.023920809536875302, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.046040164094512254, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.43100860122099566, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.472222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004081632653061225, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.019447714983429273, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 980.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6998972250770814, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.513888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.35490453930043875, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1885.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.472222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.3765388587446519, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.019447714983429273, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.17745226965021937, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.17745226965021937, "baseline": 0.8333333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 6, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480075", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.439804695123465, "adjustedSOG": 0.439804695123465, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.17745226965021937, "afterPlayerForm": 0.17745226965021937, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17745226965021937, "afterRecentZones": 0.17745226965021937, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17745226965021937, "adjusted": 0.17745226965021937, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 31.416666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.439804695123465, "adjustedSOG": 0.43100860122099566, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.43100860122099566, "adjustedSOG": 0.43100860122099566 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783407508844003, "modelSOG": 0.43100860122099566, "historyGames": 10, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 6, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055080071512800026, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480078", "name": "Filip Chytil", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 19.116666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.746666666666666, "ppShare": 0.235936188077246, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9366666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.65, "currentIXG": 0.13, "priorTOI": 15.005555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 1.2125000000000001, "deploymentChange": 4.1111111111111125, "ppTOIChange": -0.2758333333333334, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10892375953970032, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.20197978471677494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20002954810936352, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18288855408541604, "goalProbability": 0.18129343851043975, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15951155749762969, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.854322560755514, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.882459312839059, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.746666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.235936188077246, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1788972362649945, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.004511900267846, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 281.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1191.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0157202178719733, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0931554144723625, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1103400557557954, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8616251005631534, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020128", "date": "20241026", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": 3.105180482412081, "index": 103.10518048241208, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": -11.2151530390625, "index": 88.7848469609375, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.105180482412081, "zonePPFit": -11.2151530390625, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7324080669069546, "attemptProjection": 1.978617481338235, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4424.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.746666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.6, "onNet": 0.500206712519262, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 281.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1788972362649945, "projectedAttempts": 0.5034436596149442, "onNet": 0.500465549348231, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3478371756547904, "ppAdjusted": 0.10767559846780408, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8555127741225947, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480078", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.913307664473557, "adjustedSOG": 1.892165878321953, "reductionPct": 1.104986225904292, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3478371756547904, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3478371756547904, "afterRecentDefense": 1.313845171851748, "afterRecentZones": 1.3465606763178442, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3126008654021175, "adjusted": 1.3126008654021175, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9747803336953302, "oldChartFactor": 1.0931554144723625, "newChartFactor": 1.0910608427020299, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.73333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8805582830691543, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.10767559846780408, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10767559846780408, "afterRecentDefense": 0.10767559846780408, "afterRecentZones": 0.10767559846780408, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.10767559846780408, "adjusted": 0.10767559846780408, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.683333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.892165878321953, "adjustedSOG": 1.854322560755514, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 100, "beforeSOG": 1.854322560755514, "adjustedSOG": 1.854322560755514 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.17836531227840752, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1822967016593384, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16336326601538828, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.32826877816886924 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864796278020585, "modelSOG": 1.854322560755514, "historyGames": 73, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 12, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 165.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09696969696969697, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10892375953970032, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.32476287412185, "btb": { "id": "8480078", "name": "Filip Chytil", "score": 50.32476287412185, "components": { "Goal model": 65.55269922879178, "SOG model": 74.55012853470437, "Unit attack": 13.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 49.10025706940874, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 48.331298331298335, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0104286902529886, "unitPlayers": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 170 } }, { "id": "8480084", "name": "Nick DeSimone", "position": "D", "priorGP": 40, "priorSOG": 0.875, "priorTOI": 14.212916666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.028333333333333332, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.995374653098982, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.011111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 731.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9472393485813071, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9563914195820927, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.09556313993174, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "inputs": null, "team": "UTA", "isHome": true, "opponent": "MIN", "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "currentGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": 12.43888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 12.011111111111111, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.06966666666666667, "currentIXGTotal": 0.20900000000000002, "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.8622058375049817, "deploymentChange": -1.7740277777777766, "ppTOIChange": -0.028333333333333332, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.05422274812253025, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.04675116995680787, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04404099601224247, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.045675167262003456, "goalProbability": 0.04308527301895701, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.25898942430464467, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Defense pair 3", "lineMates": [ "Dmitri Simashev", "Nick DeSimone" ], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": -1.7586883806230986, "index": 98.2413116193769, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.090909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 51.54545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.7586883806230986, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9563914195820926, "attemptProjection": 0.75096137210118, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2162.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.011111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.40993856274047413, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8536763958416362, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8536763958416362, "baseline": 0.875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 40, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480084", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8622058375049817, "adjustedSOG": 0.8622058375049817, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8622058375049817, "adjustedSOG": 0.8622058375049817, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 328, "beforeSOG": 0.8622058375049817, "adjustedSOG": 0.8622058375049817 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 60.0, "goalExpected": 0.05475594226001997, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05475594226001997, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05328382682978254, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057840851958499015, "modelSOG": 0.8622058375049817, "historyGames": 63, "seasonGames": { "2024": 20, "2025": 40, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 62.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04838709677419355, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05422274812253025, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 38.57013037483796, "btb": { "id": "8480084", "name": "Nick DeSimone", "score": 38.57013037483796, "components": { "Goal model": 11.311053984575835, "SOG model": 15.938303341902314, "Unit attack": 60.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 43.958868894601544, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 44.58689458689459, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7075857856934533, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitri Simashev", "Nick DeSimone" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 284 } }, { "id": "8480113", "name": "Alex Iafallo", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.4430379746835442, "currentTOI": 13.545454545454545, "currentFiveTOI": 11.387878787878789, "ppShare": 0.12346938775510204, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5499999999999999, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.617, "currentIXG": 0.147, "priorTOI": 15.59029535864979, "priorPPTOI": 1.1837552742616033, "deploymentChange": -2.044840813195245, "ppTOIChange": -0.6337552742616034, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12862226147046665, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 241.0, "goalExpected": 0.17564729302541546, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17929963976922375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1610861780820925, "goalProbability": 0.16414459365099268, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3058415568900186, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3656056970025081, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.6636508781266635, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.387878787878789, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12346938775510204, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.667015306122449, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9841867136275031, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 363.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0478389970306825, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.473534129388701, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.78902953586498, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2593850352003299, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9683312445772679, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7814852358364588, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.423773751657093, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -7.283825472118039, "index": 92.71617452788196, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.201285656890317, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.8654077942949, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.36239453595822, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.906388107673763, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.063881076737646, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.600642828445158, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.283825472118039, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4181818181818182, "attemptProjection": 1.2097865389151496, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7516.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.387878787878789, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5701320132013201, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 363.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.667015306122449, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.132165996730302, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.313984178548484, "baseline": 1.4430379746835442, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480113", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3656056970025081, "adjustedSOG": 1.3656056970025081, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3656056970025081, "adjustedSOG": 1.3656056970025081, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 199, "beforeSOG": 1.3656056970025081, "adjustedSOG": 1.3656056970025081 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.1733234369919586, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1733234369919586, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15913439618375969, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860191161429127, "modelSOG": 1.3656056970025081, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 79, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 241.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12863070539419086, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12862226147046665, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.6246789806479, "btb": { "id": "8480113", "name": "Alex Iafallo", "score": 42.6246789806479, "components": { "Goal model": 58.61182519280206, "SOG model": 49.10025706940874, "Unit attack": 46.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 45.75835475578406, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 37.17948717948718, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4131903584628223, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 236 } }, { "id": "8480145", "name": "Neal Pionk", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.9019607843137254, "currentTOI": 24.666666666666664, "currentFiveTOI": 18.951515151515153, "ppShare": 0.6027210884353742, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.684848484848485, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.052, "currentIXG": 0.18654545454545454, "priorTOI": 22.70980392156863, "priorPPTOI": 1.545751633986928, "deploymentChange": 1.9568627450980358, "ppTOIChange": 1.139096850861557, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.057844252652835444, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.11140097317916384, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11371740501616984, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10542002557200088, "goalProbability": 0.10748986086379377, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20698352917928875, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9258779925424987, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.3172369683402625, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.126410835214447, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.951515151515153, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6027210884353742, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.256063698206556, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1772.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.421955780442196, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 19.788583509513742, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.82549019607843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.33870585475766185, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.911145589084029, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9114742851839871, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.455051710421639, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.008436080467229, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": -2.961813697199034, "index": 97.03818630280097, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.24615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.7076923076923074, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.1076923076923073, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.015384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.215384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.707692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": 12.868992321547154, "index": 112.86899232154715, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 88.94736842105264, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.052631578947368, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.961813697199034, "zonePPFit": 12.868992321547154, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.022798886104324, "attemptProjection": 1.8608467099523713, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 12508.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.951515151515153, "projectedAttempts": 3.6363636363636362, "onNet": 0.388406216816295, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.256063698206556, "projectedAttempts": 0.771753246753247, "onNet": 0.4405458089668616, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2581054342953804, "ppAdjusted": 0.41099009100569456, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9418227980283476, "baseline": 1.9019607843137254, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480145", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9258779925424987, "adjustedSOG": 1.9258779925424987, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9258779925424987, "adjustedSOG": 1.9258779925424987, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 93, "beforeSOG": 1.9258779925424987, "adjustedSOG": 1.9258779925424987 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.10464689046774565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10464689046774565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09935750810699412, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782734407269723, "modelSOG": 1.9258779925424987, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 51, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05785123966942149, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.057844252652835444, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.471496578000135, "btb": { "id": "8480145", "name": "Neal Pionk", "score": 45.471496578000135, "components": { "Goal model": 37.01799485861183, "SOG model": 76.34961439588689, "Unit attack": 29.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 48.275862068965516, "Shot quality": 59.897172236503856, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 45.41785375118708, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.192688502397304, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 212 } }, { "id": "8480185", "name": "Eetu Luostarinen", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.4657534246575343, "currentTOI": 16.03611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 11.43888888888889, "ppShare": 0.2334784329244163, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.638888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.189, "currentIXG": 0.18241666666666667, "priorTOI": 16.57420091324201, "priorPPTOI": 1.0337899543378997, "deploymentChange": -0.538089802130898, "ppTOIChange": 0.6050989345509894, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11210522129783901, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.1592383007000619, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16019165576109076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14720688644263732, "goalProbability": 0.1480195136507782, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08126272081408759, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4204360765409902, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6823700825643515, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.152542372881356, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.43888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2334784329244163, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2749042662477565, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0086448480146264, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1180.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.00277932184547, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.10600706713781, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.14337899543379, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20221654430995226, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.167867377784766, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.059800605286243, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1124781802061168, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.64484515876127, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.43231441048035, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell", "Lars Eller" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": 5.595579259492197, "index": 105.5955792594922, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.9669421487603307, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.60330578512397, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.18181818181817, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.611570247933884, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9834710743801653, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.652892561983471, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 1.9933535095414356, "index": 101.99335350954144, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.538461538461537, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.595579259492197, "zonePPFit": 1.9933535095414356, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5455179989119354, "attemptProjection": 1.3315593278745852, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8236.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.43888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.524449769258076, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1180.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2749042662477565, "projectedAttempts": 0.3241282032833279, "onNet": 0.5649975692756442, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1448795182149383, "ppAdjusted": 0.21032581184498872, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4385386633932602, "baseline": 1.4657534246575343, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480185", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4494245678989697, "adjustedSOG": 1.4494245678989697, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4494245678989697, "adjustedSOG": 1.4204360765409902, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 183, "beforeSOG": 1.4204360765409902, "adjustedSOG": 1.4204360765409902 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 210.0, "goalExpected": 0.15958799890900244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15958799890900244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14750505452958362, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864723823627933, "modelSOG": 1.4204360765409902, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 73, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 211.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10426540284360189, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11210522129783901, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.97397127954324, "btb": { "id": "8480185", "name": "Eetu Luostarinen", "score": 53.97397127954324, "components": { "Goal model": 53.98457583547558, "SOG model": 53.2133676092545, "Unit attack": 17.857142857142858, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 96.55172413793103, "Shot quality": 58.09768637532134, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 50.61050061050061, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.075866808088353, "unitPlayers": [ "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell", "Lars Eller" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 134 } }, { "id": "8480188", "name": "Fabian Zetterlund", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0833333333333335, "priorSOG": 1.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 13.576388888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 11.58611111111111, "ppShare": 0.2761145810898126, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7805555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.856, "currentIXG": 0.238, "priorTOI": 12.909756097560974, "priorPPTOI": 1.1357723577235772, "deploymentChange": 0.6666327913279133, "ppTOIChange": 0.6447831978319785, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020649", "date": "20250107", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020565", "date": "20241227", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020134", "date": "20241026", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11384909766829726, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 338.0, "goalExpected": 0.19107623017723632, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1948717882084796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17393038568213787, "goalProbability": 0.1770598380750717, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3129452392933829, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6783288940413266, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.4941261088468, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.424336973478939, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.58611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2761145810898126, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3156004305718931, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.0123300586459183, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1282.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.950176234081368, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.596277738010022, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.475406504065042, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22987749191644105, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8340652917843653, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0600274999646908, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.95917508555202, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.059222894881571, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.17681337218218, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.144792548687553, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020649", "date": "20250107", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020565", "date": "20241227", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020134", "date": "20241026", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Fabian Zetterlund", "Tim Stützle", "Claude Giroux" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": -5.531156940521157, "index": 94.46884305947884, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.137931034482758, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.27093596059113, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.539901477832515, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.92118226600985, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.706403940886695, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.423645320197044, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": 2.0009166654896973, "index": 102.0009166654897, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.444444444444446, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.888888888888891, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.37037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9629629629629632, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.531156940521157, "zonePPFit": 2.0009166654896973, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9541448622931112, "attemptProjection": 1.9266887136948758, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 8342.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.58611111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.5114076625053809, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1282.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3156004305718931, "projectedAttempts": 0.49258050442629386, "onNet": 0.4906619327853704, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7227864512405953, "ppAdjusted": 0.2176303367533982, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9404167879939935, "baseline": 1.6097560975609757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480188", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8081525118207864, "adjustedSOG": 1.7125805041238027, "reductionPct": 5.2856165103431385, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7227864512405953, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7114585582161228, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5762561548659182, "afterRecentZones": 1.7227864512405953, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.576256154865918, "adjusted": 1.5658917472002845, "playerFactor": 0.9934246679173062, "defenseFactor": 0.914945757630518, "oldChartFactor": 0.8340652917843653, "newChartFactor": 0.8340652917843653, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9580507501299581, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6086721404650821, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2176303367533982, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2176303367533982, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2152383612987363, "afterRecentZones": 0.2176303367533982, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2152383612987363, "adjusted": 0.2152383612987363, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.0600274999646908, "newChartFactor": 1.0600274999646908, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.266666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2785904255319147, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7125805041238027, "adjustedSOG": 1.6783288940413266, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 133, "beforeSOG": 1.6783288940413266, "adjustedSOG": 1.6783288940413266 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 329.0, "goalExpected": 0.1751736980712023, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16947832088252238, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16068877863325343, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4793832367882722 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865904778714204, "modelSOG": 1.6783288940413266, "historyGames": 178, "seasonGames": { "2024": 84, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 37.0, "historyShots": 338.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10946745562130178, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11384909766829726, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.72644042905415, "btb": { "id": "8480188", "name": "Fabian Zetterlund", "score": 56.72644042905415, "components": { "Goal model": 62.98200514138817, "SOG model": 66.0668380462725, "Unit attack": 82.14285714285714, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 74.03598971722366, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 51.37701804368471, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2592030077991474, "unitPlayers": [ "Fabian Zetterlund", "Tim Stützle", "Claude Giroux" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 105 } }, { "id": "8480192", "name": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.8823529411764706, "currentTOI": 15.627777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 14.730555555555556, "ppShare": 0.005401234567901234, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 34, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.019444444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.238, "currentIXG": 0.03966666666666666, "priorTOI": 17.866666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.03970588235294118, "deploymentChange": -2.238888888888889, "ppTOIChange": -0.020261437908496736, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03220447945313463, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 111.0, "goalExpected": 0.02434659966894797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024167705957813014, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0240526119114152, "goalProbability": 0.023878005443753732, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.017460646766146587, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7560004099547148, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.394305110314916, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.730555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005401234567901234, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.029845912832023938, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1296.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8112826226994831, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.078164825828377, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -6.290579243350564, "index": 93.70942075664944, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3076923076923084, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.290579243350564, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7083333333333334, "attemptProjection": 0.6866260442637364, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5303.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.730555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4025251534430089, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.029845912832023938, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6974796887985348, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6974796887985348, "baseline": 0.8823529411764706, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 34, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480192", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7714289897497091, "adjustedSOG": 0.7714289897497091, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7714289897497091, "adjustedSOG": 0.7560004099547148, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 352, "beforeSOG": 0.7560004099547148, "adjustedSOG": 0.7560004099547148 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 110.0, "goalExpected": 0.03114022153025961, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03182011380877677, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0306603587418736, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06588225477918326 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05795145164611407, "modelSOG": 0.7560004099547148, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 34, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 111.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.009009009009009009, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03220447945313463, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 30.532930160133, "btb": { "id": "8480192", "name": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "score": 30.532930160133, "components": { "Goal model": 1.7994858611825193, "SOG model": 9.768637532133676, "Unit attack": 84.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 20.565552699228792, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 41.42011834319527, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2338587066652824, "unitPlayers": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 354 } }, { "id": "8480208", "name": "Drake Batherson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.1265822784810124, "currentTOI": 17.677777777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 12.634722222222223, "ppShare": 0.5998276976093043, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8680555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.441, "currentIXG": 0.3700833333333333, "priorTOI": 17.35168776371308, "priorPPTOI": 3.0858649789029537, "deploymentChange": 0.32609001406469673, "ppTOIChange": 0.7821905766526016, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1615696325098619, "goalHistoryGoals": 66.0, "goalHistoryShots": 388.0, "goalExpected": 0.31603134953738393, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.322309029004624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2709634051506106, "goalProbability": 0.2755257278301225, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4562322679511899, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9560071074500587, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.914697152907552, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.755834829443447, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.634722222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5998276976093043, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8579931350567254, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.0123300586459183, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2785.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.66656114971273, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.844807547685786, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.329324894514768, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6245713737608307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9974150351724723, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.801198101668435, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0792194030805538, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0784002305425309, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.5929343527550754, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.014809041309431, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Warren Foegele", "Dylan Cozens", "Drake Batherson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": -6.626729944385502, "index": 93.3732700556145, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.57836281365693, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.931303990127518, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.7930892636775, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.006170300287947, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.79226655697244, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.898807075277664, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": 2.6406467693517897, "index": 102.64064676935179, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.0303030303030303, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.515151515151514, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.6969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.626729944385502, "zonePPFit": 2.6406467693517897, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.981732530483887, "attemptProjection": 1.9367117738554465, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9097.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.634722222222223, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5631188118811881, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2785.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.8579931350567254, "projectedAttempts": 0.9235884457993009, "onNet": 0.48397526310079203, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3717888368648863, "ppAdjusted": 0.42076664863811364, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9592221521696667, "baseline": 2.1265822784810124, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480208", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.026166202694205, "adjustedSOG": 1.9959256198469988, "reductionPct": 1.4925025798473546, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3717888368648863, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3403107582687577, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3571547874086853, "afterRecentZones": 1.3717888368648863, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3571547874086853, "adjusted": 1.3260125125066695, "playerFactor": 0.9770532623169108, "defenseFactor": 0.9779426813429017, "oldChartFactor": 0.801198101668435, "newChartFactor": 0.801198101668435, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8530861040068202, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8985160168770259, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.42076664863811364, "afterPlayerForm": 0.42076664863811364, "afterRecentDefense": 0.41614200158431996, "afterRecentZones": 0.42076664863811364, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.41614200158431996, "adjusted": 0.41614200158431996, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.0792194030805538, "newChartFactor": 1.0792194030805538, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4787610619469025, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9959256198469988, "adjustedSOG": 1.9560071074500587, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 90, "beforeSOG": 1.9560071074500587, "adjustedSOG": 1.9560071074500587 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.3235971147554496, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3130760853657994, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2764583120637703, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7652589332106663 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845980664812606, "modelSOG": 1.9560071074500587, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 66.0, "historyShots": 388.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17010309278350516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1615696325098619, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.41707711428352, "btb": { "id": "8480208", "name": "Drake Batherson", "score": 67.41707711428352, "components": { "Goal model": 89.97429305912597, "SOG model": 77.12082262210797, "Unit attack": 52.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.62068965517241, "Shot quality": 92.54498714652956, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 54.84330484330484, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4704499527093544, "unitPlayers": [ "Warren Foegele", "Dylan Cozens", "Drake Batherson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 35 } }, { "id": "8480220", "name": "Noah Cates", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.8461538461538461, "priorSOG": 1.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 12.944871794871794, "currentFiveTOI": 10.303846153846154, "ppShare": 0.04244438762464843, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2128205128205128, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.212, "currentIXG": 0.09323076923076923, "priorTOI": 16.24329268292683, "priorPPTOI": 1.986178861788618, "deploymentChange": -3.298420888055034, "ppTOIChange": -1.7733583489681053, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1327447776928419, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.14859060346672748, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14694178669144684, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13807808948050296, "goalProbability": 0.13665576592221207, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14223235582908889, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1193706151706488, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.031354983202688, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.686746987951807, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.303846153846154, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04244438762464843, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.20705847558314955, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 0.9877898672235583, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 166.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.616695745537512, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.946786737617684, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.115447154471545, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46645282010157707, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9554449544018597, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.009398100378012, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.046498435802833, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9644243219889934, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0156285484581036, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.2284539715166645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 26.666666666666668, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": 0.3132700126003982, "index": 100.3132700126004, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.76190476190476, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.46031746031746, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.126984126984127, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.222222222222221, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 17.539682539682538, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": 1.5499478600944343, "index": 101.54994786009443, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 88.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.3132700126003982, "zonePPFit": 1.5499478600944343, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8206115135650955, "attemptProjection": 0.8357677591553649, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8037.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.303846153846154, "projectedAttempts": 1.3076923076923077, "onNet": 0.5151197446076642, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 166.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.20705847558314955, "projectedAttempts": 0.1496808257227587, "onNet": 0.5196963185790001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6737589508974442, "ppAdjusted": 0.07750760853970926, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8281896363602302, "baseline": 1.6097560975609757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480220", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1408162208405286, "adjustedSOG": 1.1193706151706488, "reductionPct": 1.8798475405687243, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6737589508974442, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6497157456628082, "afterRecentDefense": 0.663867511395789, "afterRecentZones": 0.6737589508974442, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6638675113957891, "adjusted": 0.640177283898499, "playerFactor": 0.9643148262407342, "defenseFactor": 0.9853190232374951, "oldChartFactor": 1.009398100378012, "newChartFactor": 1.009398100378012, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7459209622631002, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9305477920626049, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07750760853970926, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07644732418110665, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07639161730472353, "afterRecentZones": 0.07750760853970926, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07639161730472353, "adjusted": 0.07534659942218808, "playerFactor": 0.9863202545068929, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.046498435802833, "newChartFactor": 1.046498435802833, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1193706151706488, "adjustedSOG": 1.1193706151706488, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 267, "beforeSOG": 1.1193706151706488, "adjustedSOG": 1.1193706151706488 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 252.0, "goalExpected": 0.11348902825331283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11139016635449059, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10728600901077365, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18756510599506615 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285890652557319, "modelSOG": 1.1193706151706488, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 253.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13438735177865613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1327447776928419, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.091002430038415, "btb": { "id": "8480220", "name": "Noah Cates", "score": 38.091002430038415, "components": { "Goal model": 50.38560411311054, "SOG model": 31.619537275064268, "Unit attack": 26.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 20.308483290488432, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 63.197586726998495, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1892289331978496, "unitPlayers": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 286 } }, { "id": "8480246", "name": "Nick Perbix", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.03, "currentFiveTOI": 14.203333333333333, "ppShare": 0.025180988353792885, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.585, "currentIXG": 0.058499999999999996, "priorTOI": 19.112025316455696, "priorPPTOI": 0.08206751054852321, "deploymentChange": -1.0820253164556952, "ppTOIChange": 0.05126582278481012, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021186", "date": "20250401", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021160", "date": "20250329", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020829", "date": "20250201", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.058892963263390594, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.04654168717101063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04654168717101063, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04547523169668756, "goalProbability": 0.04547523169668756, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7902758596618649, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5346162872565126, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.203333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.025180988353792885, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.13239095392069897, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 80.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3177.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3462657613967024, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.254498714652957, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.660759493670886, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.020323965203189957, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9550999203147167, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9027607334493977, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.304147465437788, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021186", "date": "20250401", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021160", "date": "20250329", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020829", "date": "20250201", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": -1.4966693228427772, "index": 98.50333067715722, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.53846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.4615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.769230769230768, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.307692307692307, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.384615384615384, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -11.192280634232532, "index": 88.80771936576747, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.4966693228427772, "zonePPFit": -11.192280634232532, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5416564400696385, "attemptProjection": 0.7592630921365777, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 8522.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.203333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.37080799304952217, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 80.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.13239095392069897, "projectedAttempts": 0.09929321544052422, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6310220139846514, "ppAdjusted": 0.019437752118456726, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6504597661031082, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480246", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7902758596618649, "adjustedSOG": 0.7902758596618649, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7902758596618649, "adjustedSOG": 0.7902758596618649, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 347, "beforeSOG": 0.7902758596618649, "adjustedSOG": 0.7902758596618649 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.048171324025383974, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048171324025383974, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04702949365227151, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578213377911104, "modelSOG": 0.7902758596618649, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.059602649006622516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.058892963263390594, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.032121545858693, "btb": { "id": "8480246", "name": "Nick Perbix", "score": 31.032121545858693, "components": { "Goal model": 10.796915167095115, "SOG model": 11.053984575835475, "Unit attack": 20.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 15.167095115681233, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 65.14719848053181, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0873973405788897, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 352 } }, { "id": "8480281", "name": "Alexey Toropchenko", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1.0461538461538462, "currentTOI": 5.133333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 4.783333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 11.99076923076923, "priorPPTOI": 0.031025641025641024, "deploymentChange": -6.857435897435896, "ppTOIChange": -0.031025641025641024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08089554879137864, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.044905996287802, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04262186514025226, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04391264663069301, "goalProbability": 0.041726321751257026, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21863248794359857, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5551108430404493, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 4.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.0100944427278242, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 460.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.63849943160288, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.15, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007521515765087948, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9861132151694187, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9861132151694187, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [ "Alexey Toropchenko", "Pius Suter", "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.4554976819297027, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 287.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.783333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.491166763735197, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.22774884096485135, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.22774884096485135, "baseline": 1.0461538461538462, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480281", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5551108430404493, "adjustedSOG": 0.5551108430404493, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.22774884096485135, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22774884096485135, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22774884096485135, "afterRecentZones": 0.22774884096485135, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.22774884096485135, "adjusted": 0.22774884096485135, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0468346199376426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 243.15, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9776272800253907, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8545497578560245, "defenseRecentMinutes": 31.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5551108430404493, "adjustedSOG": 0.5551108430404493, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5551108430404493, "adjustedSOG": 0.5551108430404493 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12871051588175692, "modelSOG": 0.5551108430404493, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 65, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05063291139240506, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08089554879137864, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480289", "name": "Morgan Barron", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.9090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.4307692307692308, "currentTOI": 14.27727272727273, "currentFiveTOI": 12.05151515151515, "ppShare": 0.0010204081632653062, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.004545454545454546, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2489999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11354545454545453, "priorTOI": 12.8, "priorPPTOI": 0.030256410256410255, "deploymentChange": 1.4772727272727284, "ppTOIChange": -0.025710955710955708, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10765428097655286, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.12197647833812134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12451281343219522, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11483081109187222, "goalProbability": 0.11707305203067453, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22422409388023062, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1330388093408739, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.073422177520745, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.05151515151515, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010204081632653062, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.00551252319109462, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9886036540375441, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.829624224735498, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.542307692307693, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006629799427326749, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8925409245341296, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7547343269350111, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.42019099590723, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Koepke", "Morgan Barron", "Brad Lambert" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": -8.17552243549963, "index": 91.82447756450037, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.441893830703012, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.630798660927784, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.60736489717838, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.815877570540408, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6260162601626018, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.17552243549963, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7863636363636364, "attemptProjection": 1.0827400870803028, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7954.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.05151515151515, "projectedAttempts": 2.454545454545454, "onNet": 0.4482210764767987, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.00551252319109462, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8436427708128786, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9345518617219696, "baseline": 1.4307692307692308, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480289", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1330388093408739, "adjustedSOG": 1.1330388093408739, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1330388093408739, "adjustedSOG": 1.1330388093408739, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 264, "beforeSOG": 1.1330388093408739, "adjustedSOG": 1.1330388093408739 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.12978616076924596, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12978616076924596, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12171677775010088, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865667169059644, "modelSOG": 1.1330388093408739, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 65, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 196.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09693877551020408, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10765428097655286, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.87939270451329, "btb": { "id": "8480289", "name": "Morgan Barron", "score": 35.87939270451329, "components": { "Goal model": 40.3598971722365, "SOG model": 32.390745501285345, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 31.619537275064268, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 62.4949124949125, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.5842109533479367, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Koepke", "Morgan Barron", "Brad Lambert" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 305 } }, { "id": "8480291", "name": "Skyler Brind'Amour", "position": "C", "priorGP": 4.0, "priorSOG": 0.5, "priorTOI": 15.016666666666667, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 16.574585635359117, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 196.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.09549905916335, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1095974203695085, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677 }, "inputs": null, "team": "CAR", "isHome": true, "opponent": "BOS", "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "currentGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentSOG": 2.5, "currentTOI": 9.9, "currentFiveTOI": 9.05, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.155, "currentIXGTotal": 0.31, "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 1.729957473454042, "deploymentChange": -5.116666666666667, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.12833539465815413, "goalProbability": 0.19097338617543969, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": false, "projected": false, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 3.183301972111664, "index": 103.18330197211166, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.183301972111664, "zonePPFit": null, "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.773993550923772, "attemptProjection": 2.524493585806242, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1086.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.05, "projectedAttempts": 5.000000000000001, "onNet": 0.5085503814785584, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.649243568365007, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.649243568365007, "baseline": 0.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 4.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480291", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.789546141019004, "adjustedSOG": 1.729957473454042, "reductionPct": 3.3298201258466165, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.649243568365007, "afterPlayerForm": 2.649243568365007, "afterRecentDefense": 2.552388979896501, "afterRecentZones": 2.646690367563316, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.5499291224234035, "adjusted": 2.5499291224234035, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 1.09549905916335, "newChartFactor": 1.093482450959502, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.729957473454042, "adjustedSOG": 1.729957473454042, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.729957473454042, "adjustedSOG": 1.729957473454042 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.22201477509754766, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21192346527740316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1990964691805554, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8123083005115717, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860222623080647, "modelSOG": 1.729957473454042, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 4, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12833539465815413, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480336", "name": "Sean Walker", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.8461538461538463, "priorSOG": 2.2098765432098766, "currentTOI": 21.57948717948718, "currentFiveTOI": 18.065384615384616, "ppShare": 0.1211775445002282, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6807692307692308, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.412, "currentIXG": 0.10861538461538461, "priorTOI": 21.812139917695472, "priorPPTOI": 0.7364197530864197, "deploymentChange": -0.2326527382082908, "ppTOIChange": -0.05565052231718892, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04651991302580722, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 347.0, "goalExpected": 0.09186326417206353, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08768777333167796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0877701244750607, "goalProbability": 0.08395315366780942, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.38169708072512826, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.974708424779337, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.854162231211411, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.065384615384616, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1211775445002282, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6247310895973037, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.38461538461538464, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 531.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.642514794896605, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.041072925398156, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.288477366255144, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1666644518793152, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9820977921717848, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9342683542413408, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.0362225097024576, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "K'Andre Miller", "Sean Walker" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 236, "fitPct": -0.596740260940507, "index": 99.4032597390595, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.261501210653755, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 160 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.210653753026635, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.7941888619854724, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.685230024213075, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.380145278450364, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6682808716707025, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.596740260940507, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.750084517737344, "attemptProjection": 1.8869537943488712, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 14091.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.065384615384616, "projectedAttempts": 3.769230769230769, "onNet": 0.3935006011461268, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 531.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6247310895973037, "projectedAttempts": 0.0705910835703168, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4190067873280485, "ppAdjusted": 0.014896984099674528, "other": 0.38461538461538464 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8185191560431075, "baseline": 2.2098765432098766, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480336", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9750621109098152, "adjustedSOG": 1.974708424779337, "reductionPct": 0.01790759533710773, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4190067873280485, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4190067873280485, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4190067873280485, "afterRecentZones": 1.4190067873280485, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4190067873280485, "adjusted": 1.4190067873280485, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9820977921717848, "newChartFactor": 0.9820977921717848, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 98.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.168000386819138, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.014896984099674528, "afterPlayerForm": 0.014795082905507373, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0144060502301479, "afterRecentZones": 0.014896984099674528, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0144060502301479, "adjusted": 0.014307507215544283, "playerFactor": 0.9931596091205211, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.974708424779337, "adjustedSOG": 1.974708424779337, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 87, "beforeSOG": 1.974708424779337, "adjustedSOG": 1.974708424779337 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 339.0, "goalExpected": 0.06530488614612755, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06390324741543607, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0632181919617767, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1313950291048048 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05794401122535827, "modelSOG": 1.974708424779337, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 347.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043227665706051875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04651991302580722, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.72923961849485, "btb": { "id": "8480336", "name": "Sean Walker", "score": 47.72923961849485, "components": { "Goal model": 30.077120822622106, "SOG model": 77.89203084832904, "Unit attack": 71.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 25.19280205655527, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 60.09615384615385, "Goalie H2H": 44.16362688900469 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9875415121406874, "unitPlayers": [ "K'Andre Miller", "Sean Walker" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 196 } }, { "id": "8480355", "name": "Mark Kastelic", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 1.2195121951219512, "currentTOI": 11.386111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 9.641666666666667, "ppShare": 0.027665526888405345, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12361111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.298, "currentIXG": 0.1915, "priorTOI": 12.61890243902439, "priorPPTOI": 0.07439024390243902, "deploymentChange": -1.2327913279132794, "ppTOIChange": 0.049220867208672095, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.333333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11299319081183676, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 182.0, "goalExpected": 0.12125718187799661, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12125718187799661, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1141938829850744, "goalProbability": 0.1141938829850744, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0731370714180606, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.741573033707865, "Current_PP_SOG60": 40.449438202247194, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.641666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.027665526888405345, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12940875331106913, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0477772884824241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 89.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.869526784135777, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.346951219512196, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016965494224315352, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.052885837782863, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7719431988841015, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.910485933503836, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.333333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tanner Jeannot", "Matthew Poitras", "Mark Kastelic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": -7.60189337052995, "index": 92.39810662947005, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.760233918128655, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.748194014447886, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.58789129686962, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.009631922944617, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.644650842793258, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.249398004815962, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.60189337052995, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0808881789924447, "attemptProjection": 0.9517085913326341, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 6942.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.641666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333337, "onNet": 0.5284653465346535, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 89.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.12940875331106913, "projectedAttempts": 0.08724185616476571, "onNet": 0.5187920019912056, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8746679781911422, "ppAdjusted": 0.05829707363806397, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0162983851625393, "baseline": 1.2195121951219512, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480355", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0975839091463042, "adjustedSOG": 1.095037827977613, "reductionPct": 0.2319714372153614, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8746679781911422, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8746679781911422, "afterRecentDefense": 0.870424509576657, "afterRecentZones": 0.8746679781911422, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.870424509576657, "adjusted": 0.870424509576657, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9491264822134388, "oldChartFactor": 0.7719431988841015, "newChartFactor": 0.7694233142243136, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.43333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1575401854198626, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7647995270342901, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05829707363806397, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05829707363806397, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05829707363806397, "afterRecentZones": 0.05829707363806397, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05829707363806397, "adjusted": 0.05829707363806397, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3692307692307693, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.095037827977613, "adjustedSOG": 1.0731370714180606, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 285, "beforeSOG": 1.0731370714180606, "adjustedSOG": 1.0731370714180606 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 176.0, "goalExpected": 0.09992617939879293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09611400396381092, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09509578385633846, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.34562373296185417 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864079808937967, "modelSOG": 1.0731370714180606, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 182.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1043956043956044, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11299319081183676, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.181542060719444, "btb": { "id": "8480355", "name": "Mark Kastelic", "score": 44.181542060719444, "components": { "Goal model": 40.102827763496144, "SOG model": 26.99228791773779, "Unit attack": 71.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 62.724935732647815, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.64007597340931, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9269653693361715, "unitPlayers": [ "Tanner Jeannot", "Matthew Poitras", "Mark Kastelic" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 226 } }, { "id": "8480459", "name": "Pius Suter", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.484375, "currentTOI": 13.787878787878787, "currentFiveTOI": 10.856060606060607, "ppShare": 0.02249913464866736, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09848484848484848, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.676, "currentIXG": 0.15236363636363637, "priorTOI": 15.89375, "priorPPTOI": 1.1013020833333333, "deploymentChange": -2.1058712121212135, "ppTOIChange": -1.002817234848485, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021032", "date": "20250311", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020638", "date": "20250106", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1556414461168075, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 246.0, "goalExpected": 0.2114012319899969, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2006483664812563, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19055077520614985, "goalProbability": 0.18179991244802768, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8750862758122174, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.358257952906337, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5170969993021632, "Current_PP_SOG60": 55.38461538461539, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.856060606060607, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02249913464866736, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1219725814741391, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 65.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.915458242615947, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.25632537242847, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.678645833333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.26698758536753625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9937418814676462, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8616599699592655, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.974288270780446, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8713658803318536, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7709497206703912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 55.38461538461539, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021032", "date": "20250311", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020638", "date": "20250106", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alexey Toropchenko", "Pius Suter", "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": -0.20860395107845875, "index": 99.79139604892154, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.728813559322033, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.45762711864407, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.30508474576271, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.084745762711865, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.050847457627118, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.372881355932204, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": -4.611334334691151, "index": 95.38866566530885, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 63.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.20860395107845875, "zonePPFit": -4.611334334691151, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1726542314050263, "attemptProjection": 1.3757056116160975, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7165.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.856060606060607, "projectedAttempts": 2.0909090909090913, "onNet": 0.44538387518785616, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 65.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1219725814741391, "projectedAttempts": 0.11259007520689764, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7418149387668942, "ppAdjusted": 0.07781952819821328, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2741799215105618, "baseline": 1.484375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480459", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.358257952906337, "adjustedSOG": 1.358257952906337, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.358257952906337, "adjustedSOG": 1.358257952906337, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 201, "beforeSOG": 1.358257952906337, "adjustedSOG": 1.358257952906337 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 245.0, "goalExpected": 0.19178817141792504, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18850781325302898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17451828940696487, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.271232193079432 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285194035641539, "modelSOG": 1.358257952906337, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 246.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1556414461168075, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.02896891883123, "btb": { "id": "8480459", "name": "Pius Suter", "score": 49.02896891883123, "components": { "Goal model": 68.12339331619538, "SOG model": 48.58611825192802, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 47.81491002570694, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 45.75936883629191, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 188 } }, { "id": "8480748", "name": "Kiefer Sherwood", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 2.388888888888889, "currentTOI": 15.380555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 12.466666666666667, "ppShare": 0.1798928298035213, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9791666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.273, "currentIXG": 0.18941666666666668, "priorTOI": 17.265740740740743, "priorPPTOI": 1.712037037037037, "deploymentChange": -1.885185185185188, "ppTOIChange": -0.7328703703703704, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020667", "date": "20260106", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020492", "date": "20251211", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020755", "date": "20250121", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1310121506421475, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 334.0, "goalExpected": 0.2513865410919677, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2513865410919677, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22227830794188524, "goalProbability": 0.22227830794188524, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9188032549638563, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.016042780748663, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.1063829787234045, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1798928298035213, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8935245057103313, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4166666666666667, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0330444604574947, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 705.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.107689927278354, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.16873985938345, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.464583333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34068735175343284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0522143109629853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8486403222464663, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8929514919279714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819922345695542, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020667", "date": "20260106", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020492", "date": "20251211", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020755", "date": "20250121", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020364", "date": "20241129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kiefer Sherwood", "Ty Dellandrea", "Tyler Toffoli" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 213, "fitPct": -5.045322591784455, "index": 94.95467740821555, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 32.64319248826291, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.88262910798122, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.140845070422536, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.258215962441316, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.323943661971832, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7511737089201879, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": 10.587319563580238, "index": 110.58731956358024, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.842105263157894, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 72.63157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.045322591784455, "zonePPFit": 10.587319563580238, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6203073661780678, "attemptProjection": 1.6907046172186355, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8976.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.466666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5006188118811881, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 705.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8935245057103313, "projectedAttempts": 0.15208927756771598, "onNet": 0.5088152327221439, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1519024491862941, "ppAdjusted": 0.08693687584539064, "other": 0.4166666666666667 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6555059916983517, "baseline": 2.388888888888889, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480748", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9488591505745667, "adjustedSOG": 1.9188032549638563, "reductionPct": 1.542230263374822, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1519024491862941, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1322379751871838, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1211817589212403, "afterRecentZones": 1.1519024491862941, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.12118175892124, "adjusted": 1.1020417270876783, "playerFactor": 0.9829286985082797, "defenseFactor": 0.9733304757822546, "oldChartFactor": 0.8486403222464663, "newChartFactor": 0.8486403222464663, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8878338278931751, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755351070214042, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.08693687584539064, "afterPlayerForm": 0.08693687584539064, "afterRecentDefense": 0.08670443859282308, "afterRecentZones": 0.08693687584539064, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.08670443859282306, "adjusted": 0.08670443859282306, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.883333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9971671388101984, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9188032549638563, "adjustedSOG": 1.9188032549638563, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 95, "beforeSOG": 1.9188032549638563, "adjustedSOG": 1.9188032549638563 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.1624583601148595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15290788069927155, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14994851446531413, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8157290227756936 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285927337869201, "modelSOG": 1.9188032549638563, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 72, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 334.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1317365269461078, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1310121506421475, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.269147786660646, "btb": { "id": "8480748", "name": "Kiefer Sherwood", "score": 56.269147786660646, "components": { "Goal model": 79.43444730077121, "SOG model": 75.83547557840618, "Unit attack": 15.476190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 60.9254498714653, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.66880341880342, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.064152714229113, "unitPlayers": [ "Kiefer Sherwood", "Ty Dellandrea", "Tyler Toffoli" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 113 } }, { "id": "8480762", "name": "Eric Robinson", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.5384615384615385, "priorSOG": 1.2537313432835822, "currentTOI": 12.443589743589744, "currentFiveTOI": 10.643589743589745, "ppShare": 0.019169329073482427, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10769230769230768, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.54 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.797, "currentIXG": 0.1382307692307692, "priorTOI": 11.427860696517412, "priorPPTOI": 0.05049751243781094, "deploymentChange": 1.0157290470723321, "ppTOIChange": 0.05719479525449674, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13012667151901777, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.1856864898207651, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1772464213731893, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16946606498699798, "goalProbability": 0.16242663688757025, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.703942809942773, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4269671824628771, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.371717658395568, "Current_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.643589743589745, "Current_PP_Share": 0.019169329073482427, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09882751699844351, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.042724438158192, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 84.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.827631482967393, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.733990147783253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.230597014925374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011428455302079626, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0734979589444733, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9281832540438498, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9384026569385188, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.713183830881302, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Eric Robinson", "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Nicolas Deslauriers" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": 2.449931964815775, "index": 102.44993196481578, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.53146853146853, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.83916083916084, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.78321678321679, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.97202797202797, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.25874125874126, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -2.393891531871674, "index": 97.60610846812833, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.449931964815775, "zonePPFit": -2.393891531871674, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7239351680708621, "attemptProjection": 1.3656243227313016, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8302.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.643589743589745, "projectedAttempts": 2.230769230769231, "onNet": 0.5286124479314109, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 84.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09882751699844351, "projectedAttempts": 0.07059108357031678, "onNet": 0.5700954178462829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3372955803651054, "ppAdjusted": 0.05363801118982242, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5447797454010819, "baseline": 1.2537313432835822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480762", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.428360384554082, "adjustedSOG": 1.4269671824628771, "reductionPct": 0.09753855583440885, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3372955803651054, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3372955803651054, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3372955803651054, "afterRecentZones": 1.3367412310714413, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3367412310714413, "adjusted": 1.3367412310714413, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0734979589444733, "newChartFactor": 1.0727065311328334, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0975432411589734, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0196615144036563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05363801118982242, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05363801118982242, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05187035699814564, "afterRecentZones": 0.05363801118982242, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05187035699814564, "adjusted": 0.05187035699814564, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 0.9281832540438498, "newChartFactor": 0.9281832540438498, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4269671824628771, "adjustedSOG": 1.4269671824628771, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 182, "beforeSOG": 1.4269671824628771, "adjustedSOG": 1.4269671824628771 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.21716726772983128, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21250620679776766, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1952046582439012, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.37599560105618934 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859774856971587, "modelSOG": 1.4269671824628771, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 67, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1308411214953271, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13012667151901777, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.69839538164864, "btb": { "id": "8480762", "name": "Eric Robinson", "score": 50.69839538164864, "components": { "Goal model": 62.210796915167094, "SOG model": 53.47043701799486, "Unit attack": 57.142857142857146, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 41.645244215938305, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 40.313390313390315, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.607744381628656, "unitPlayers": [ "Eric Robinson", "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Nicolas Deslauriers" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 166 } }, { "id": "8480800", "name": "Quinn Hughes", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.8461538461538463, "priorSOG": 2.527027027027027, "currentTOI": 26.966666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 22.120512820512822, "ppShare": 0.8163325471698113, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 37.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.55, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.758, "currentIXG": 0.21215384615384617, "priorTOI": 27.737612612612615, "priorPPTOI": 3.7898648648648647, "deploymentChange": -0.7709459459459502, "ppTOIChange": -0.2398648648648649, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020439", "date": "20251205", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 29.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021071", "date": "20250316", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 29.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020510", "date": "20241218", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 26.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06146692923516371, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 417.0, "goalExpected": 0.15146444654749538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15769841524459197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14055156191103488, "goalProbability": 0.14589267111970897, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5341109208674089, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.4641615976619557, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6334762953518025, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.100758396533044, "Current_5v5_Min": 22.120512820512822, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8163325471698113, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4388444624606915, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2769.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.738664668597234, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.129791406667856, "Prior_5v5_Min": 22.243693693693693, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.718291734471094, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8465088734704774, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.563110396835208, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.809135399673735, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020439", "date": "20251205", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 29.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021071", "date": "20250316", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 29.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020510", "date": "20241218", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 26.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 41, "priorAttempts": 191, "fitPct": -5.116370884317419, "index": 94.88362911568258, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.81036904609884, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.578725577831694, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.529051206742434, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.039713957348997, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.413867960669135, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6282722513089006, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": 13.574796285923469, "index": 113.57479628592347, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.333333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.116370884317419, "zonePPFit": 13.574796285923469, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5959956212959603, "attemptProjection": 2.4161370421984643, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 61.0, "sog": 27.0, "seconds": 17254.0, "expectedMinutes": 22.120512820512822, "projectedAttempts": 4.6923076923076925, "onNet": 0.42303206768888785, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2769.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4388444624606915, "projectedAttempts": 0.7451450622883405, "onNet": 0.4685185185185185, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7789964990141494, "ppAdjusted": 0.496300601963832, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5060663317472125, "baseline": 2.527027027027027, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480800", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020439", "date": "20251205", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.5144506098591384, "adjustedSOG": 2.5144506098591384, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7789964990141494, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7789964990141494, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7789964990141494, "afterRecentZones": 1.7789964990141494, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7789964990141494, "adjusted": 1.7789964990141494, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8465088734704774, "newChartFactor": 0.8465088734704774, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 107.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0508450489773131, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.496300601963832, "afterPlayerForm": 0.496300601963832, "afterRecentDefense": 0.496300601963832, "afterRecentZones": 0.496300601963832, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.496300601963832, "adjusted": 0.496300601963832, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.816666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1644238856181666, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5144506098591384, "adjustedSOG": 2.4641615976619557, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 37, "beforeSOG": 2.4641615976619557, "adjustedSOG": 2.4641615976619557 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 414.0, "goalExpected": 0.15461737543883514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15461737543883514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14325707433667373, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778402414579637, "modelSOG": 2.4641615976619557, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 74, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 417.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06235011990407674, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06146692923516371, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.265202170141684, "btb": { "id": "8480800", "name": "Quinn Hughes", "score": 53.265202170141684, "components": { "Goal model": 51.15681233933162, "SOG model": 91.00257069408741, "Unit attack": 92.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 37.93103448275862, "Shot quality": 67.86632390745501, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 55.175688509021846, "Goalie H2H": 44.16362688900469 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.613859855312554, "unitPlayers": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 141 } }, { "id": "8480801", "name": "Brady Tkachuk", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.25, "priorSOG": 3.683333333333333, "currentTOI": 16.558333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.338888888888889, "ppShare": 0.6084289671547289, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 39.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.270833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.079, "currentIXG": 0.42324999999999996, "priorTOI": 16.96027777777778, "priorPPTOI": 3.1666666666666665, "deploymentChange": -0.401944444444446, "ppTOIChange": 1.1041666666666665, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020650", "date": "20260103", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020516", "date": "20251215", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020574", "date": "20241228", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 19.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 5.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10803679315209025, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 556.0, "goalExpected": 0.3377255182473795, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3397474710730769, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2866089261405271, "goalProbability": 0.2880499119445544, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14409858040273504, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.1260231666812053, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.26016658500735, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.390243902439025, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.338888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6084289671547289, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.3223140836541116, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0086448480146264, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3075.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 11.538968166849616, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.842105263157896, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.652777777777777, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6409254337970923, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1196449170895153, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1356059218358978, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.676118801236393, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.95827725437416, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 7.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020650", "date": "20260103", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020516", "date": "20251215", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020574", "date": "20241228", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 19.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 36, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": 3.9881639029838425, "index": 103.98816390298384, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.469775474956823, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.1727115716753, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.894645941278064, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.1727115716753, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.632124352331605, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.658031088082901, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": 4.52019739452993, "index": 104.52019739452993, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.747747747747748, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.73873873873874, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.61261261261261, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.9009009009009, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.9881639029838425, "zonePPFit": 4.52019739452993, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.389526147905649, "attemptProjection": 3.132407751155155, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 8164.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.338888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 3.7499999999999996, "onNet": 0.48168824617454176, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 3075.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.3223140836541116, "projectedAttempts": 1.2316871724766463, "onNet": 0.6097806711617454, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9868492989809976, "ppAdjusted": 0.940784317216071, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.260966949530402, "baseline": 3.683333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480801", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.4299135030515746, "adjustedSOG": 3.4299135030515746, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.4299135030515746, "adjustedSOG": 3.361315232990543, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 10, "beforeSOG": 3.361315232990543, "adjustedSOG": 3.1260231666812053 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 555.0, "goalExpected": 0.34552102700723575, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34552102700723575, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29214855235013815, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12872136307771206, "modelSOG": 3.1260231666812053, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 60, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 556.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10431654676258993, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10803679315209025, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.09336670822317, "btb": { "id": "8480801", "name": "Brady Tkachuk", "score": 69.09336670822317, "components": { "Goal model": 93.05912596401028, "SOG model": 97.68637532133675, "Unit attack": 94.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.03448275862069, "Shot quality": 94.8586118251928, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 52.85996055226824, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8302018307885124, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 20 } }, { "id": "8480802", "name": "Ryan McLeod", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "currentTOI": 15.398484848484848, "currentFiveTOI": 11.506060606060606, "ppShare": 0.23539719626168223, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2212121212121212, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.452, "currentIXG": 0.132, "priorTOI": 17.611522633744855, "priorPPTOI": 1.5534979423868311, "deploymentChange": -2.2130377852600063, "ppTOIChange": -0.33228582117470995, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16111676156098664, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 197.0, "goalExpected": 0.14959251898810547, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1468594992927856, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13894122995174638, "goalProbability": 0.13658472064801533, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2356509303731047, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.928472727100346, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.318409270476692, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.506060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23539719626168223, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.236533744276881, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0027135944463237, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 806.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5413071874344872, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.768211920529802, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.759465020576132, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3241257739936054, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0013290802764487, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1197043512786546, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.121192528247393, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4554471284594466, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Zucker", "Josh Norris", "Ryan McLeod" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": 3.990145042621819, "index": 103.99014504262182, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.507029053420805, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.763823805060916, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.38706654170571, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.65979381443299, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.620431115276475, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0618556701030926, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.990145042621819, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8953043361574318, "attemptProjection": 0.8557672228333228, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7594.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.506060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 1.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.5160797283922778, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 806.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.236533744276881, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6937175976771954, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8755357794953773, "baseline": 1.1111111111111112, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480802", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9697659121416708, "adjustedSOG": 0.9474211501023939, "reductionPct": 2.3041397681147435, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6937175976771954, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6575099806649314, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6937175976771954, "afterRecentZones": 0.6926270236418466, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6926270236418466, "adjusted": 0.6564763276117339, "playerFactor": 0.9478064025858656, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1197043512786546, "newChartFactor": 1.116281382282424, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6514121507151895, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1324694795459413, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9474211501023939, "adjustedSOG": 0.928472727100346, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 314, "beforeSOG": 0.928472727100346, "adjustedSOG": 0.928472727100346 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.11871231391917336, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11855567685143775, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11193675254885477, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.013911451800516228 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285167818361303, "modelSOG": 0.928472727100346, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 197.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17766497461928935, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16111676156098664, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.746153069355245, "btb": { "id": "8480802", "name": "Ryan McLeod", "score": 44.746153069355245, "components": { "Goal model": 50.6426735218509, "SOG model": 19.53727506426735, "Unit attack": 41.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 41.131105398457585, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 38.888888888888886, "Goalie H2H": 50.02912055911474 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3376741746006524, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Zucker", "Josh Norris", "Ryan McLeod" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 219 } }, { "id": "8480807", "name": "Mattias Samuelsson", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 1.3974358974358974, "currentTOI": 23.483333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 20.02121212121212, "ppShare": 0.018107476635514017, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09393939393939395, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.799, "currentIXG": 0.07263636363636364, "priorTOI": 22.82863247863248, "priorPPTOI": 0.05256410256410256, "deploymentChange": 0.6547008547008559, "ppTOIChange": 0.04137529137529139, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09004509524156677, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 175.0, "goalExpected": 0.1263369247128143, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12402877918640787, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11868214101157605, "goalProbability": 0.11664558170453639, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20365593070396648, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4030406028655564, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.996821552898441, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.02121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018107476635514017, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09511798032899084, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 62.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.980818053596615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.936965811965813, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010967108460853423, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1220384199601778, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.357582540570789, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Rasmus Dahlin", "Mattias Samuelsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": 4.067947332005929, "index": 104.06794733200593, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.369369369369366, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.558558558558559, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.495495495495495, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.189189189189186, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.576576576576576, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8108108108108109, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.067947332005929, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4227272727272724, "attemptProjection": 1.4862718125471646, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 13214.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.02121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 2.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.37751901845690916, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 62.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09511798032899084, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1817722699099458, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4544995426372185, "baseline": 1.3974358974358974, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480807", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4316740845566902, "adjustedSOG": 1.4316740845566902, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1817722699099458, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1817722699099458, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1817722699099458, "afterRecentZones": 1.1817722699099458, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1817722699099458, "adjusted": 1.1817722699099458, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1220384199601778, "newChartFactor": 1.1220384199601778, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 109.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.072728835574572, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4316740845566902, "adjustedSOG": 1.4030406028655564, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 190, "beforeSOG": 1.4030406028655564, "adjustedSOG": 1.4030406028655564 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.1162557394210869, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11610234372413542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10975247720338757, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.013657061362315481 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057624011914308625, "modelSOG": 1.4030406028655564, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 175.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10857142857142857, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09004509524156677, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.278658458154965, "btb": { "id": "8480807", "name": "Mattias Samuelsson", "score": 42.278658458154965, "components": { "Goal model": 42.673521850899746, "SOG model": 51.41388174807198, "Unit attack": 42.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 16.452442159383033, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 42.01183431952663, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4247828697122755, "unitPlayers": [ "Rasmus Dahlin", "Mattias Samuelsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 244 } }, { "id": "8480817", "name": "K'Andre Miller", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "priorSOG": 1.7083333333333333, "currentTOI": 22.57179487179487, "currentFiveTOI": 18.26923076923077, "ppShare": 0.2809219534459151, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5782051282051281, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.46 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.569, "currentIXG": 0.12069230769230768, "priorTOI": 22.392824074074074, "priorPPTOI": 0.9412037037037037, "deploymentChange": 0.1789707977207975, "ppTOIChange": 0.6370014245014245, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020859", "date": "20250205", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 25.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020827", "date": "20250201", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020604", "date": "20250102", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.95 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06187349764631256, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 252.0, "goalExpected": 0.09597216702587621, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09160991288696475, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09151069832395703, "goalProbability": 0.0875389805847265, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.39717177392305236, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5511029871704014, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.536842105263158, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.848903330625507, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.26923076923077, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2809219534459151, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4482937312509996, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1231.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.818685299571427, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.083128381701918, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.850231481481483, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21301058089101915, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0235919061362062, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9007225644071905, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9737416509672351, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9106396219945725, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.0147550827828775, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.055508830950378, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020859", "date": "20250205", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 25.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020827", "date": "20250201", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020604", "date": "20250102", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "K'Andre Miller", "Sean Walker" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": 0.7863968712068754, "index": 100.78639687120688, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.67252747252747, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 114 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.907692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.208791208791208, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.145054945054945, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.072527472527472, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.993406593406593, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": -3.3092478530936518, "index": 96.69075214690635, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 93.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.7863968712068754, "zonePPFit": -3.3092478530936518, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4079801609743434, "attemptProjection": 1.534563514492325, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 14250.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.26923076923077, "projectedAttempts": 3.076923076923077, "onNet": 0.37729510570518393, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1231.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4482937312509996, "projectedAttempts": 0.35295541785158396, "onNet": 0.4202020202020202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1006084653201094, "ppAdjusted": 0.13989414164399422, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4712718377333343, "baseline": 1.7083333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480817", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5660964359733338, "adjustedSOG": 1.5511029871704014, "reductionPct": 0.9573771102808215, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1006084653201094, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0806223635929861, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1006084653201094, "afterRecentZones": 1.1006084653201094, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1006084653201094, "adjusted": 1.0806223635929861, "playerFactor": 0.9818408613445379, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0235919061362062, "newChartFactor": 1.0235919061362062, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 98.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9026604729729731, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13989414164399422, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13989414164399422, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13528389491070458, "afterRecentZones": 0.13948802509277733, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13489116203289658, "adjusted": 0.13489116203289658, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 0.9007225644071905, "newChartFactor": 0.8950321310551971, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.218018018018018, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5511029871704014, "adjustedSOG": 1.5511029871704014, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 150, "beforeSOG": 1.5511029871704014, "adjustedSOG": 1.5511029871704014 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 251.0, "goalExpected": 0.10014316973132951, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09799379694174132, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09529211802103503, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19466457883691307 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577947117150202, "modelSOG": 1.5511029871704014, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 72, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 252.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06349206349206349, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06187349764631256, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.070829251176164, "btb": { "id": "8480817", "name": "K'Andre Miller", "score": 54.070829251176164, "components": { "Goal model": 31.619537275064268, "SOG model": 61.696658097686374, "Unit attack": 71.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 32.13367609254499, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 61.25356125356126, "Goalie H2H": 53.915391539153916 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9875415121406874, "unitPlayers": [ "K'Andre Miller", "Sean Walker" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 133 } }, { "id": "8480829", "name": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 12.254545454545456, "currentFiveTOI": 11.343939393939394, "ppShare": 0.12469512195121951, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 42, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6196969696969696, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9169999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.08336363636363636, "priorTOI": 11.350793650793651, "priorPPTOI": 0.24761904761904763, "deploymentChange": 0.9037518037518044, "ppTOIChange": 0.372077922077922, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11101995741764163, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.1113574618802197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10629589492763969, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10538110038846758, "goalProbability": 0.10084144774509239, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.45396526433751916, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.003040034156277, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.289167891011086, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.80195599022005, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.343939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12469512195121951, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6428659676620805, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 409.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3280.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.25873717269839, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.769230769230769, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.86626984126984, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.056040447955588206, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.10715588186453, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1214042588060584, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.658400279427174, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.6, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Eric Robinson", "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Nicolas Deslauriers" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": 3.5718627288176634, "index": 103.57186272881766, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -11.189010326538721, "index": 88.81098967346128, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5718627288176634, "zonePPFit": -11.189010326538721, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2015660298348263, "attemptProjection": 0.887132364243509, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7487.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.343939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 1.5454545454545456, "onNet": 0.5449704908763209, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 409.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6428659676620805, "projectedAttempts": 0.09430796591619764, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9787918694528379, "ppAdjusted": 0.06555732758632976, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0443491970391676, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 42, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480829", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0266095182235007, "adjustedSOG": 1.003040034156277, "reductionPct": 2.2958567643138084, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9787918694528379, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9787918694528379, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9430078876233828, "afterRecentZones": 0.9760320637461855, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9403489785836745, "adjusted": 0.9403489785836745, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 1.10715588186453, "newChartFactor": 1.101706401720453, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.203639695834606, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06555732758632976, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06555732758632976, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06471774501012062, "afterRecentZones": 0.06555732758632976, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06471774501012062, "adjusted": 0.06471774501012062, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2984126984126985, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.003040034156277, "adjustedSOG": 1.003040034156277, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 301, "beforeSOG": 1.003040034156277, "adjustedSOG": 1.003040034156277 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.12223111843158059, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11960767201279222, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11505618196141562, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23246506552021262 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128643685453456, "modelSOG": 1.003040034156277, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 42, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 169.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10059171597633136, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11101995741764163, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.085797774816, "btb": { "id": "8480829", "name": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "score": 49.085797774816, "components": { "Goal model": 36.760925449871465, "SOG model": 22.87917737789203, "Unit attack": 57.142857142857146, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.794344473007712, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 54.761904761904766, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.607744381628656, "unitPlayers": [ "Eric Robinson", "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Nicolas Deslauriers" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 187 } }, { "id": "8480830", "name": "Andrei Svechnikov", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.923076923076923, "priorSOG": 2.569620253164557, "currentTOI": 17.55128205128205, "currentFiveTOI": 12.661538461538461, "ppShare": 0.7291191236878137, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 38.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.096153846153846, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.92 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.253, "currentIXG": 0.481, "priorTOI": 16.985021097046413, "priorPPTOI": 2.7360759493670885, "deploymentChange": 0.5662609542356378, "ppTOIChange": 1.3600778967867573, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13408382484201073, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 421.0, "goalExpected": 0.33451745446445064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31931252374862934, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28431664715075855, "goalProbability": 0.27335158107145074, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0965066079307806, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.494838246586479, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.019441069258809, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.774647887323944, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.661538461538461, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7291191236878137, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7589752001193695, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9794663048394392, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3195.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.072647465767586, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.046495489243581, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.265611814345991, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.619221030519981, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9267676767676768, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.039751401836453, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1090307796036818, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9636079910959048, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1212413342651468, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.827522025065145, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.205853337717857, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "William Carrier", "Sebastian Aho", "Andrei Svechnikov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 225, "fitPct": 1.3250467278817695, "index": 101.32504672788177, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.877124183006536, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.579084967320261, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.54901960784314, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.63267973856209, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.286274509803924, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.075816993464053, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 3.6343593201227264, "index": 103.63435932012273, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.321428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.642857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.74999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.3250467278817695, "zonePPFit": 3.6343593201227264, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8926623397613787, "attemptProjection": 2.7568709359680073, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 9876.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.661538461538461, "projectedAttempts": 3.3846153846153846, "onNet": 0.5005266484095218, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 3195.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7589752001193695, "projectedAttempts": 1.6941860056876032, "onNet": 0.5332215148858308, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6563234673518017, "ppAdjusted": 1.0145970166667377, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.824766637864693, "baseline": 2.569620253164557, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480830", "goals": 1, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.7227080839846387, "adjustedSOG": 2.6826217705230953, "reductionPct": 1.4722956786053176, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6563234673518017, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6487141874358255, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6310147779888586, "afterRecentZones": 1.6563234673518017, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6310147779888586, "adjusted": 1.6235217681767995, "playerFactor": 0.9954059215690869, "defenseFactor": 0.9847199596806971, "oldChartFactor": 1.039751401836453, "newChartFactor": 1.039751401836453, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9714310695315744, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279949742198932, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.0145970166667377, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0145970166667377, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9811607159987886, "afterRecentZones": 1.014004983470429, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9805881934058347, "adjusted": 0.9805881934058347, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1.1090307796036818, "newChartFactor": 1.107845713242219, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.066666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1047717842323652, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.6826217705230953, "adjustedSOG": 2.6826217705230953, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 28, "beforeSOG": 2.6826217705230953, "adjustedSOG": 2.494838246586479 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 419.0, "goalExpected": 0.3819990042954001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3738001599040641, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3175042672308077, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5618678170308811 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285767274268758, "modelSOG": 2.494838246586479, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 79, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 421.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13539192399049882, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13408382484201073, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 76.97118468179778, "btb": { "id": "8480830", "name": "Andrei Svechnikov", "score": 76.97118468179778, "components": { "Goal model": 92.54498714652956, "SOG model": 92.03084832904884, "Unit attack": 90.47619047619048, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.41379310344827, "Shot quality": 97.94344473007712, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 57.73979107312441, "Goalie H2H": 44.34685404024273 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.56947532060678, "unitPlayers": [ "William Carrier", "Sebastian Aho", "Andrei Svechnikov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 1 } }, { "id": "8480835", "name": "Jack Drury", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 1.2073170731707317, "currentTOI": 16.533333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 13.436363636363637, "ppShare": 0.006672732787382469, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Forward unit pending", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.093, "currentIXG": 0.19027272727272726, "priorTOI": 14.478658536585366, "priorPPTOI": 0.1953252032520325, "deploymentChange": 2.0546747967479693, "ppTOIChange": -0.16199186991869918, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020300", "date": "20251116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 12.333333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10740496656438747, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.1224888271731267, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1224888271731267, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11528421033538669, "goalProbability": 0.11528421033538669, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1404391350906171, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.465493910690122, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.436363636363637, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006672732787382469, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.035082398139722984, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9844154321502332, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.183102408618178, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.492195629552549, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.99959349593496, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03565687361419068, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.924958205252656, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9753654327336538, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9021722601268006, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.991622520635703, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020300", "date": "20251116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 12.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020428", "date": "20241207", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "projectedPosition": null, "positionStatus": "Incomplete reported units; roster position retained", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 135, "fitPct": -0.8211522422115394, "index": 99.17884775778846, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.387464387464387, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.786324786324787, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.66951566951567, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.851851851851852, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.689458689458689, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8211522422115394, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1748995328540737, "attemptProjection": 1.0168081532203417, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8868.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.436363636363637, "projectedAttempts": 1.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.5617388136725154, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.035082398139722984, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8231265703099349, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0958538430372076, "baseline": 1.2073170731707317, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480835", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1404391350906171, "adjustedSOG": 1.1404391350906171, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1404391350906171, "adjustedSOG": 1.1404391350906171, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 261, "beforeSOG": 1.1404391350906171, "adjustedSOG": 1.1404391350906171 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.1218994569196666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1218994569196666, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11476263147975857, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865919768702566, "modelSOG": 1.1404391350906171, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0970873786407767, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10740496656438747, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.083833190517, "btb": { "id": "8480835", "name": "Jack Drury", "score": 44.083833190517, "components": { "Goal model": 40.616966580976865, "SOG model": 33.16195372750643, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 62.46786632390746, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.7037037037037, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 227 } }, { "id": "8480839", "name": "Rasmus Dahlin", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3.25, "priorSOG": 2.5324675324675323, "currentTOI": 24.447916666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 20.270833333333332, "ppShare": 0.6417910447761194, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.225, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.958, "currentIXG": 0.24475, "priorTOI": 24.185714285714287, "priorPPTOI": 3.3064935064935064, "deploymentChange": 0.262202380952381, "ppTOIChange": -0.08149350649350628, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 26.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08397559422612451, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 421.0, "goalExpected": 0.2252414763550266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22112636822498594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20167658074736067, "goalProbability": 0.19838462482262614, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3291955924734524, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.682225454082643, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.289825282631038, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.27906976744186, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.270833333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6417910447761194, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.3713072893110207, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1548.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2412.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.380858929304916, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.547525530243519, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.970562770562772, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6898752407424643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.119537757775902, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.035694369717825, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1037236646182702, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.543624161073826, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.094017094017094, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 26.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 24.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Rasmus Dahlin", "Mattias Samuelsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": 3.9845919258633984, "index": 103.9845919258634, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.72538860103627, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 100 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.055267702936096, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.352331606217617, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.335060449050086, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.910189982728843, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6217616580310882, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": 1.189812323927498, "index": 101.1898123239275, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.9855072463768, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.057971014492754, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.318840579710145, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.898550724637681, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.739130434782609, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.9845919258633984, "zonePPFit": 1.189812323927498, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.703321374084826, "attemptProjection": 2.8736254002830197, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 9730.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.270833333333332, "projectedAttempts": 3.875, "onNet": 0.45625382115390806, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1548.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.3713072893110207, "projectedAttempts": 1.1760374265038445, "onNet": 0.4764595103578154, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1986798743387217, "ppAdjusted": 0.8397935128452013, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.288473387183923, "baseline": 2.5324675324675323, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480839", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.9860710452973667, "adjustedSOG": 2.9429728484558293, "reductionPct": 1.4433078177898961, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1986798743387217, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1324741008726407, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1986798743387217, "afterRecentZones": 2.1986798743387217, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.1986798743387217, "adjusted": 2.1324741008726407, "playerFactor": 0.9698883979251445, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.119537757775902, "newChartFactor": 1.119537757775902, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 93.91666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8355039070326588, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.8397935128452013, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8397935128452013, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8341689582420535, "afterRecentZones": 0.8397935128452013, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8341689582420535, "adjusted": 0.8341689582420535, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.035694369717825, "newChartFactor": 1.035694369717825, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2811918063314711, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.9429728484558293, "adjustedSOG": 2.8841133914867125, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 20, "beforeSOG": 2.8841133914867125, "adjustedSOG": 2.682225454082643 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 418.0, "goalExpected": 0.2843167154162146, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28394156868424764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2474717303444751, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02823614812559605 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057512845918108714, "modelSOG": 2.682225454082643, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 77, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 421.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09026128266033254, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08397559422612451, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.611384154947544, "btb": { "id": "8480839", "name": "Rasmus Dahlin", "score": 60.611384154947544, "components": { "Goal model": 72.75064267352185, "SOG model": 95.11568123393316, "Unit attack": 42.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 24.137931034482758, "Shot quality": 73.7789203084833, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 55.25030525030525, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4247828697122755, "unitPlayers": [ "Rasmus Dahlin", "Mattias Samuelsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 77 } }, { "id": "8480840", "name": "Oskar Bck", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": 11.340476190476192, "currentFiveTOI": 8.726190476190476, "ppShare": 0.0005662514156285391, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0023809523809523807, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.251, "currentIXG": 0.03585714285714286, "priorTOI": 12.358796296296298, "priorPPTOI": 0.019212962962962963, "deploymentChange": -1.0183201058201057, "ppTOIChange": -0.016832010582010584, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11506560003559352, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 90.0, "goalExpected": 0.06488901765675707, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06488901765675707, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06282853290855304, "goalProbability": 0.06282853290855304, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5639306416225597, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9645293315143246, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.726190476190476, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0005662514156285391, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.002447750437557912, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0010657055328318, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1766.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8410277835805307, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.972916666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003977571313423736, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9388981467454425, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8934465943221881, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.9645293315143246, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -3.5517801892603984, "index": 96.4482198107396, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.48148148148148, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.222222222222214, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.962962962962965, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.5517801892603984, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5285714285714285, "attemptProjection": 0.5949351472412001, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3665.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.726190476190476, "projectedAttempts": 0.7142857142857143, "onNet": 0.4865524252105722, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.002447750437557912, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.27603900219202865, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2857142857142857 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5617532879063143, "baseline": 0.5833333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480840", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5703853060771219, "adjustedSOG": 0.5639306416225597, "reductionPct": 1.131632316925335, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.27603900219202865, "afterPlayerForm": 0.269212278134653, "afterRecentDefense": 0.27200826802065303, "afterRecentZones": 0.27603900219202865, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.27200826802065303, "adjusted": 0.2652812281010916, "playerFactor": 0.9752689873417721, "defenseFactor": 0.973929739724079, "oldChartFactor": 0.8934465943221881, "newChartFactor": 0.8869297585906418, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.333333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8084558823529412, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8785529715762274, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.016666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5639306416225597, "adjustedSOG": 0.5639306416225597, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5639306416225597, "adjustedSOG": 0.5639306416225597 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 90.0, "goalExpected": 0.06691096635231714, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06691096635231714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0647215311164012, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862464006762767, "modelSOG": 0.5639306416225597, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 72, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 90.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11506560003559352, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480848", "name": "Ty Dellandrea", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.0869565217391304, "currentTOI": 13.280000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 11.786666666666665, "ppShare": 0.014860681114551083, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 46, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.243, "currentIXG": 0.0486, "priorTOI": 14.189855072463768, "priorPPTOI": 0.12065217391304348, "deploymentChange": -0.9098550724637668, "ppTOIChange": -0.040652173913043474, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.0 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07741193796198363, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.07581153767130608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07581153767130608, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07300910703967241, "goalProbability": 0.07300910703967241, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9793261823329691, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.090497737556561, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.786666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014860681114551083, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07381274040716765, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9812928082271114, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1615.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.335395321863522, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.81081081081081, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.245652173913042, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02400921751369808, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9098312031494364, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8968233883462626, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.435114503816794, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kiefer Sherwood", "Ty Dellandrea", "Tyler Toffoli" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": -3.439220388457912, "index": 96.56077961154209, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.245901639344262, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.850117096018737, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.276346604215462, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.817330210772832, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.27166276346604, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.53864168618267, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.439220388457912, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8499999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.9651452454577235, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.786666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5085503814785584, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 24.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07381274040716765, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9075726227288616, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9075726227288616, "baseline": 1.0869565217391304, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 46, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480848", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9793261823329691, "adjustedSOG": 0.9793261823329691, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9075726227288616, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9075726227288616, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9075726227288616, "afterRecentZones": 0.9075726227288616, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9075726227288616, "adjusted": 0.9075726227288616, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8968233883462626, "newChartFactor": 0.8968233883462626, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2768220310728813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9793261823329691, "adjustedSOG": 0.9793261823329691, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 305, "beforeSOG": 0.9793261823329691, "adjustedSOG": 0.9793261823329691 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 102.0, "goalExpected": 0.051189267085300326, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04817999110066309, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04990116892238624, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.28634158387900455 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869447282206645, "modelSOG": 0.9793261823329691, "historyGames": 119, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 46, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 105.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02857142857142857, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07741193796198363, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.563784758514835, "btb": { "id": "8480848", "name": "Ty Dellandrea", "score": 32.563784758514835, "components": { "Goal model": 25.19280205655527, "SOG model": 21.85089974293059, "Unit attack": 15.476190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 26.73521850899743, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.07692307692308, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.064152714229113, "unitPlayers": [ "Kiefer Sherwood", "Ty Dellandrea", "Tyler Toffoli" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 339 } }, { "id": "8480849", "name": "Barrett Hayton", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.9166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.7761194029850746, "currentTOI": 14.127777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 12.443055555555555, "ppShare": 0.13980848153214775, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7097222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.57, "currentIXG": 0.21416666666666664, "priorTOI": 15.122885572139303, "priorPPTOI": 1.9614427860696515, "deploymentChange": -0.995107794361525, "ppTOIChange": -1.2517205638474294, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1104950738997259, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.20334997619100778, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19156174056802716, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18400738653971765, "goalProbability": 0.17433135371845543, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9676032821262226, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8403533208688339, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.0366112289318, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.090019569471623, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.443055555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13980848153214775, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7366458106796684, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0307233185554783, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 511.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.584362139917696, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.500951173113506, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.51268656716418, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118708390579199, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9221087936402084, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.011252863028289, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9782734781511611, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920184963583634, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.8478260869565215, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.061611374407583, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anders Lee", "Barrett Hayton", "Kailer Yamamoto" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 134, "fitPct": -2.5963735453263865, "index": 97.40362645467361, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.36435469710272, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.98331870061457, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.661984196663745, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.730465320456542, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.170324846356452, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0895522388059704, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": 0.37509543427630376, "index": 100.3750954342763, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 69.33333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5963735453263865, "zonePPFit": 0.37509543427630376, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8853976475417507, "attemptProjection": 1.8809542180409295, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 8959.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.443055555555555, "projectedAttempts": 3.666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4841810945607819, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 511.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7366458106796684, "projectedAttempts": 0.34597846294152723, "onNet": 0.5189668252982964, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6282794655744668, "ppAdjusted": 0.17156313388354005, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8831759327913402, "baseline": 1.7761194029850746, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480849", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8403533208688339, "adjustedSOG": 1.8403533208688339, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8403533208688339, "adjustedSOG": 1.8403533208688339, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 102, "beforeSOG": 1.8403533208688339, "adjustedSOG": 1.8403533208688339 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.17256924431437484, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17256924431437484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1584999822974472, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866544338191185, "modelSOG": 1.8403533208688339, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 67, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 297.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10437710437710437, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1104950738997259, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.58653689520405, "btb": { "id": "8480849", "name": "Barrett Hayton", "score": 62.58653689520405, "components": { "Goal model": 66.0668380462725, "SOG model": 74.03598971722366, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 68.89460154241645, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 64.95726495726495, "Goalie H2H": 51.87745189613301 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.35211950693162, "unitPlayers": [ "Anders Lee", "Barrett Hayton", "Kailer Yamamoto" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 67 } }, { "id": "8480855", "name": "Jack McBain", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.4133333333333333, "currentTOI": 12.404166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.284722222222221, "ppShare": 0.007113543091655267, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.036111111111111115, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.56, "currentIXG": 0.21333333333333335, "priorTOI": 13.846666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.334, "deploymentChange": -1.442499999999999, "ppTOIChange": -0.2978888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.733333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.6153846153846154, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11681885585938777, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 207.0, "goalExpected": 0.12921997006401773, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12172906456777945, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12121936115006544, "goalProbability": 0.11461178095103482, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6607580199030627, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1061567853357244, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.873846153846154, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.284722222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007113543091655267, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03748100015199878, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9700318162076811, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 26.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.763578396022318, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.580838323353293, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.709777777777777, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07013452608576892, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.908670200994128, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.185078496327236, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jack McBain", "Kevin Stenlund", "Liam O'Brien" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 152, "fitPct": -3.0443266335290673, "index": 96.95567336647093, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.157894736842106, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.736842105263156, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.05263157894737, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 80 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.63157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.578947368421052, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.842105263157895, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.0443266335290673, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7791666666666666, "attemptProjection": 1.0235781733413039, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8125.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.284722222222221, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.4470047923322683, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 26.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03748100015199878, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9013724200039852, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9013724200039852, "baseline": 1.4133333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480855", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1061567853357244, "adjustedSOG": 1.1061567853357244, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1061567853357244, "adjustedSOG": 1.1061567853357244, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 272, "beforeSOG": 1.1061567853357244, "adjustedSOG": 1.1061567853357244 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.10552153109162941, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10552153109162941, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10014490222436248, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863388748832044, "modelSOG": 1.1061567853357244, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 207.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11681885585938777, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.066663193672255, "btb": { "id": "8480855", "name": "Jack McBain", "score": 50.066663193672255, "components": { "Goal model": 44.2159383033419, "SOG model": 30.334190231362467, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 68.63753213367609, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 52.17026981732864, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8422463066102637, "unitPlayers": [ "Jack McBain", "Kevin Stenlund", "Liam O'Brien" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 173 } }, { "id": "8480865", "name": "Noah Dobson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 1.975, "currentTOI": 21.21969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 16.395454545454545, "ppShare": 0.2812623274161736, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0803030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.7810000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.16190909090909092, "priorTOI": 22.48375, "priorPPTOI": 1.3641666666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.2640530303030317, "ppTOIChange": -0.28386363636363643, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 27.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020330", "date": "20241123", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.058122222887863374, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 378.0, "goalExpected": 0.12624188968744676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13232904253744832, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11859838096648426, "goalProbability": 0.12394731095024261, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5348929983758355, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.1720072532499026, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.986415303576379, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.395454545454545, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2812623274161736, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2064449225987688, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.97785277367644, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.194868662186927, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.77875, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2871315508021391, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.14034567229371, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.094780067895175, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0851421679896234, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.349188527100132, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 27.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020330", "date": "20241123", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020068", "date": "20241017", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 182, "fitPct": 4.678189076457002, "index": 104.678189076457, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.9747899159664, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 104 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.7427278603749192, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.402068519715579, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.340012928248223, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.237233354880415, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.30316742081448, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 3.1593355965058265, "index": 103.15933559650583, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 91.51515151515152, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.678189076457002, "zonePPFit": 3.1593355965058265, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.468181818181818, "attemptProjection": 2.2922082548679263, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 10821.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.395454545454545, "projectedAttempts": 4.454545454545454, "onNet": 0.413702621348147, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 713.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2064449225987688, "projectedAttempts": 0.2030482338174646, "onNet": 0.405982905982906, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.0697009264144954, "ppAdjusted": 0.037766837383104095, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.380195036524872, "baseline": 1.975, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480865", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2181170219149235, "adjustedSOG": 2.2163339318876556, "reductionPct": 0.08038755438288803, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.0697009264144954, "afterPlayerForm": 2.0697009264144954, "afterRecentDefense": 2.0697009264144954, "afterRecentZones": 2.0697009264144954, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.0697009264144954, "adjusted": 2.0697009264144954, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.14034567229371, "newChartFactor": 1.14034567229371, "playerRecentAttempts": 26.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1485807365554743, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.037766837383104095, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03479502067099099, "afterRecentDefense": 0.037766837383104095, "afterRecentZones": 0.037766837383104095, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.037766837383104095, "adjusted": 0.03479502067099099, "playerFactor": 0.921311475409836, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.094780067895175, "newChartFactor": 1.094780067895175, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2163339318876556, "adjustedSOG": 2.1720072532499026, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 66, "beforeSOG": 2.1720072532499026, "adjustedSOG": 2.1720072532499026 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 377.0, "goalExpected": 0.12194387538573144, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12194387538573144, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11480195149249774, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782422540398693, "modelSOG": 2.1720072532499026, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 378.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0582010582010582, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.058122222887863374, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.327525923009944, "btb": { "id": "8480865", "name": "Noah Dobson", "score": 59.327525923009944, "components": { "Goal model": 42.41645244215938, "SOG model": 83.29048843187661, "Unit attack": 96.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.172413793103445, "Shot quality": 50.6426735218509, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 58.34350834350835, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6903177480918936, "unitPlayers": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 88 } }, { "id": "8480878", "name": "Nils Lundkvist", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 0.8846153846153846, "currentTOI": 17.278787878787877, "currentFiveTOI": 16.05757575757576, "ppShare": 0.005559416261292564, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.024242424242424242, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.51, "currentIXG": 0.046363636363636364, "priorTOI": 16.481410256410257, "priorPPTOI": 0.11089743589743589, "deploymentChange": 0.7973776223776206, "ppTOIChange": -0.08665501165501165, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04266945205619404, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.03303785248630979, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03303785248630979, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03249806345790796, "goalProbability": 0.03249806345790796, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7742741210456652, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7174938667673145, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.05757575757576, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005559416261292564, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024031840293132854, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2001939511485546, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.864423076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.022958585857278058, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9827971993237223, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9352544776633155, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.983219390926041, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -0.5734266892092563, "index": 99.42657331079074, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.71665285832644, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.185584092792046, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.28086164043082, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6901408450704227, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5734266892092563, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6801850746642295, "attemptProjection": 0.8117487846786458, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 10598.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.05757575757576, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.3584174296598276, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 16.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.024031840293132854, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7459669296714376, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7459669296714376, "baseline": 0.8846153846153846, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480878", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8014263116490165, "adjustedSOG": 0.7742741210456652, "reductionPct": 3.387983425136476, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7459669296714376, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7007132786658521, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7459669296714376, "afterRecentZones": 0.7459669296714376, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7459669296714376, "adjusted": 0.7007132786658521, "playerFactor": 0.9393355801636977, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9827971993237223, "newChartFactor": 0.9827971993237223, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.643160577740017, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7742741210456652, "adjustedSOG": 0.7742741210456652, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 350, "beforeSOG": 0.7742741210456652, "adjustedSOG": 0.7742741210456652 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.03431669454465839, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03431669454465839, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03373455481879619, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057899071235759714, "modelSOG": 0.7742741210456652, "historyGames": 102, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 52, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 106.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02830188679245283, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04266945205619404, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 29.95697439343005, "btb": { "id": "8480878", "name": "Nils Lundkvist", "score": 29.95697439343005, "components": { "Goal model": 4.370179948586118, "SOG model": 10.282776349614396, "Unit attack": 48.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 9.511568123393316, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.825951825951826, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5038888361518747, "unitPlayers": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 358 } }, { "id": "8480891", "name": "Michael Kesselring", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3529411764705883, "currentTOI": 19.291666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 16.66111111111111, "ppShare": 0.007399846899719316, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 34, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04027777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.517, "currentIXG": 0.043083333333333335, "priorTOI": 13.394607843137255, "priorPPTOI": 0.000980392156862745, "deploymentChange": 5.897058823529413, "ppTOIChange": 0.03929738562091503, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021100", "date": "20250320", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020426", "date": "20241207", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04153985975502989, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.04556188837872826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04556188837872826, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0445395311572276, "goalProbability": 0.0445395311572276, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.096823355866322, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0010003334444817, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.66111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007399846899719316, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.036754908745531355, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.408481348154595, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.391666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00020455152079066645, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7609975685287793, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.124698620889189, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021100", "date": "20250320", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020426", "date": "20241207", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sam Dickinson", "Michael Kesselring" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 72, "fitPct": -7.966747715707356, "index": 92.03325228429264, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 69.55555555555556, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.966747715707356, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8750000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.9973058651699209, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 11996.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.66111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.2500000000000004, "onNet": 0.3890462274476176, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 29.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.036754908745531355, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7694862659182939, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9361529325849605, "baseline": 1.3529411764705883, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 34, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480891", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1028682301392116, "adjustedSOG": 1.096823355866322, "reductionPct": 0.5481048513045428, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7694862659182939, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7594114754634779, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7694862659182939, "afterRecentZones": 0.7694862659182939, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7694862659182939, "adjusted": 0.7594114754634779, "playerFactor": 0.9869071211520677, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7609975685287793, "newChartFactor": 0.7609975685287793, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9236929236929237, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.096823355866322, "adjustedSOG": 1.096823355866322, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 275, "beforeSOG": 1.096823355866322, "adjustedSOG": 1.096823355866322 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.039555190007103495, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03722984936181183, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03878309704103403, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22377574992904214 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05794276804549207, "modelSOG": 1.096823355866322, "historyGames": 128, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 34, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03365384615384615, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04153985975502989, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 30.218487254557306, "btb": { "id": "8480891", "name": "Michael Kesselring", "score": 30.218487254557306, "components": { "Goal model": 10.539845758354756, "SOG model": 29.56298200514139, "Unit attack": 23.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 6.169665809768637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.81101614434948, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.116908637917232, "unitPlayers": [ "Sam Dickinson", "Michael Kesselring" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 356 } }, { "id": "8480950", "name": "Ilya Lyubushkin", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.183333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.783333333333333, "ppShare": 0.03333333333333333, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04233304968148814, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03333333333333333, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.17525252525252527, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 120.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 887.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.783333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.399131190269331, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.17525252525252527, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480950", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9729059445677322, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.873987087423414, "defenseRecentMinutes": 252.98333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9908411528150134, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9230574324324325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05789281141393818, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 53, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.023809523809523808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04233304968148814, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480990", "name": "Declan Chisholm", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.7692307692307693, "currentTOI": 14.755, "currentFiveTOI": 14.12, "ppShare": 0.06169052488070893, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 26, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.30166666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.08, "currentIXG": 0.008, "priorTOI": 13.725641025641027, "priorPPTOI": 0.31346153846153846, "deploymentChange": 1.0293589743589742, "ppTOIChange": -0.01179487179487182, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020159", "date": "20251028", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021223", "date": "20250406", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021127", "date": "20250324", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020563", "date": "20241227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020281", "date": "20241116", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.050704139236011095, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.029060141287127875, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02884661346017671, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028641956013146373, "goalProbability": 0.028434521895132247, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.020743411801412565, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5731315376810259, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6997167138810199, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.12, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06169052488070893, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3408868852120386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2934.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.33593445181428, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.143589743589745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07163370875318258, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7823453226041224, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8862981399004455, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020159", "date": "20251028", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021223", "date": "20250406", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021127", "date": "20250324", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020563", "date": "20241227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020281", "date": "20241116", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -7.255155913195921, "index": 92.74484408680408, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.255155913195921, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.34, "attemptProjection": 0.5837859732740284, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 8472.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.12, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.3422365644780936, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 181.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3408868852120386, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.46189298663701417, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.46189298663701417, "baseline": 0.7692307692307693, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 26, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480990", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5848280996745162, "adjustedSOG": 0.5848280996745162, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5848280996745162, "adjustedSOG": 0.5731315376810259, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5731315376810259, "adjustedSOG": 0.5731315376810259 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.02170239346273286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022176227270444066, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021468590934324974, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0463551431679643 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785898872550141, "modelSOG": 0.5731315376810259, "historyGames": 102, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 26, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 93.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043010752688172046, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.050704139236011095, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481013", "name": "Jonatan Berggren", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.1372549019607843, "currentTOI": 14.871212121212123, "currentFiveTOI": 13.333333333333332, "ppShare": 0.18760816891658014, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8212121212121212, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.946, "currentIXG": 0.1769090909090909, "priorTOI": 13.821895424836601, "priorPPTOI": 1.1251633986928105, "deploymentChange": 1.0493166963755218, "ppTOIChange": -0.3039512774806893, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021236", "date": "20250408", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020762", "date": "20250123", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13305026507465603, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.17420340984445326, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16534260132603337, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15987400962011505, "goalProbability": 0.15239673566407708, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7477273956037978, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3093052445006834, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7272727272727275, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.642066420664206, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.333333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18760816891658014, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0170636793689753, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.0100944427278242, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 542.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.639541306120302, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.273598605866977, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.42516339869281, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27277226067863514, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9677651904659841, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0127461455815499, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9899987265878009, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0241539208779504, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.126014523707817, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.792207792207792, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021236", "date": "20250408", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020762", "date": "20250123", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020533", "date": "20241221", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Connor McMichael", "Mason McTavish", "Jonatan Berggren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": -1.0744936511338636, "index": 98.92550634886614, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": 0.42487151938499323, "index": 100.424871519385, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 71.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0744936511338636, "zonePPFit": 0.42487151938499323, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.466217037177743, "attemptProjection": 1.3817939085434892, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8800.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.333333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.7272727272727266, "onNet": 0.4881188118811881, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 542.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0170636793689753, "projectedAttempts": 0.11259007520689764, "onNet": 0.5187920019912056, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2472779293211542, "ppAdjusted": 0.08581845263037106, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4240054728606162, "baseline": 1.1372549019607843, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481013", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3093052445006834, "adjustedSOG": 1.3093052445006834, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3093052445006834, "adjustedSOG": 1.3093052445006834, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 219, "beforeSOG": 1.3093052445006834, "adjustedSOG": 1.3093052445006834 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.18719679475679293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18399496781625294, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1707194777326034, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26594680236392554 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859169449559876, "modelSOG": 1.3093052445006834, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 51, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13580246913580246, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13305026507465603, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.19297823278695, "btb": { "id": "8481013", "name": "Jonatan Berggren", "score": 57.19297823278695, "components": { "Goal model": 57.58354755784062, "SOG model": 43.958868894601544, "Unit attack": 72.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 51.724137931034484, "Shot quality": 57.0694087403599, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 59.564509564509564, "Goalie H2H": 50.72801397786837 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.941972302418596, "unitPlayers": [ "Connor McMichael", "Mason McTavish", "Jonatan Berggren" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 103 } }, { "id": "8481014", "name": "Alexander Romanov", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1333333333333333, "currentTOI": 16.566666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.194444444444445, "ppShare": 0.01102629346904156, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 15, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.11, "currentIXG": 0.03666666666666667, "priorTOI": 19.445555555555554, "priorPPTOI": 0.1522222222222222, "deploymentChange": -2.8788888888888877, "ppTOIChange": -0.07999999999999997, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0444976076555024, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.04071818705259785, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04071818705259785, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039900339658394665, "goalProbability": 0.039900339658394665, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9150646337626829, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.5473684210526315, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.194444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01102629346904156, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05505628807155524, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1179.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.129276027258619, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.46777777777778, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.033210942996848604, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1078526615866533, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1396730706118179, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5473684210526315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": 3.5950887195551076, "index": 103.59508871955511, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.199999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5950887195551076, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1396730706118179, "attemptProjection": 0.46168055896646853, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2375.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.194444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.4331426323295576, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05505628807155524, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8006768147891432, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8006768147891432, "baseline": 1.1333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481014", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9337394222068193, "adjustedSOG": 0.9337394222068193, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9337394222068193, "adjustedSOG": 0.9150646337626829, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9150646337626829, "adjustedSOG": 0.9150646337626829 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.035737468751514796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.035737468751514796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03510642505059467, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05789473684210526, "modelSOG": 0.9150646337626829, "historyGames": 82, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 15, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 120.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0444976076555024, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481024", "name": "Linus Karlsson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "priorSOG": 1.4683544303797469, "currentTOI": 14.242307692307692, "currentFiveTOI": 12.142307692307693, "ppShare": 0.308868501529052, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4243589743589742, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.69 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.507, "currentIXG": 0.19284615384615386, "priorTOI": 12.514135021097047, "priorPPTOI": 1.2744725738396625, "deploymentChange": 1.728172671210645, "ppTOIChange": 0.14988640051931168, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.783333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1272951272415621, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 166.0, "goalExpected": 0.2072627043442359, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20526145796242587, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18719390575419115, "goalProbability": 0.185565651773703, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1628253980488159, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6282061131132144, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.2220462464364905, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.480648064806481, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.142307692307693, "Current_PP_Share": 0.308868501529052, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5433165458394817, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.043378507998391, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1111.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.471404286914555, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.110412183413342, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.797257383966246, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3377759436802346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0891678856136138, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0620587114349385, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9468787097300629, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.341944255608429, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.8246445497630335, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 144, "fitPct": 2.9722628537871287, "index": 102.97226285378713, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.912698412698411, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.793650793650793, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.293650793650794, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.38888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3888888888888888, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": 2.068623714497946, "index": 102.06862371449795, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.517241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 71.20689655172414, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.517241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.9722628537871287, "zonePPFit": 2.068623714497946, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9155321182733565, "attemptProjection": 1.6725951436633602, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 9471.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.142307692307693, "projectedAttempts": 2.4615384615384617, "onNet": 0.5371890847621348, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1111.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5433165458394817, "projectedAttempts": 0.500084569308923, "onNet": 0.4903284303848479, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5334299440801886, "ppAdjusted": 0.18371060996509297, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7940636309683584, "baseline": 1.4683544303797469, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481024", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6637799507329138, "adjustedSOG": 1.6614348092991984, "reductionPct": 0.1409526201275879, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5334299440801886, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5334299440801886, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5334299440801886, "afterRecentZones": 1.5334299440801886, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5334299440801886, "adjusted": 1.5334299440801886, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0891678856136138, "newChartFactor": 1.0891678856136138, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0608198924731183, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4037209798950263, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.18371060996509297, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1798020409089007, "afterRecentDefense": 0.18371060996509297, "afterRecentZones": 0.18371060996509297, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.18371060996509297, "adjusted": 0.1798020409089007, "playerFactor": 0.9787243150684931, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0620587114349385, "newChartFactor": 1.0620587114349385, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.466666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6909203980099502, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6614348092991984, "adjustedSOG": 1.6282061131132144, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.6282061131132144, "adjustedSOG": 1.6282061131132144 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.19380590313752702, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19807762200384624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17618221080037377, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35116123423185874 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286050384625552, "modelSOG": 1.6282061131132144, "historyGames": 115, "seasonGames": { "2024": 23, "2025": 79, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 166.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12650602409638553, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1272951272415621, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481030", "name": "Jack St. Ivany", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 0.85, "currentTOI": 13.520833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.454166666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 20, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.051000000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.012750000000000001, "priorTOI": 16.325833333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.004166666666666667, "deploymentChange": -2.804999999999998, "ppTOIChange": -0.004166666666666667, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04451314841814956, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.026918115719878503, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.027477841353024057, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.026559052227802995, "goalProbability": 0.027103759621058238, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05447073932552428, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6047227993628743, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.1148962527098172, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.454166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 683.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8230549487481094, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.877500000000001, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0009458686303822234, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9234128689350506, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9237459904606404, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.1148962527098172, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -2.5529043688316477, "index": 97.44709563116835, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5529043688316477, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2309364976151601, "attemptProjection": 0.651472833594421, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 3229.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.454166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.36131999161149225, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.44120466560479055, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.44120466560479055, "baseline": 0.85, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 20, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481030", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6047227993628743, "adjustedSOG": 0.6047227993628743, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6047227993628743, "adjustedSOG": 0.6047227993628743, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6047227993628743, "adjustedSOG": 0.6047227993628743 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.026608157477570088, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026608157477570088, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02625727941657146, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786709294359443, "modelSOG": 0.6047227993628743, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 19, "2025": 20, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04451314841814956, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481032", "name": "Paul Cotter", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.7721518987341772, "currentTOI": 15.012500000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 13.104166666666666, "ppShare": 0.17141213689962612, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8277777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3719999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11433333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.677848101265822, "priorPPTOI": 0.15063291139240506, "deploymentChange": 4.3346518987341796, "ppTOIChange": 0.6771448663853727, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020495", "date": "20251213", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020197", "date": "20251102", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020598", "date": "20241231", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16097221177314222, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.12718257674913286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1259545522844624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1194271142152243, "goalProbability": 0.11834508492531436, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10820292899099415, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7900902605995809, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.289348171701113, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.104166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.17141213689962612, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8564913085189186, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9709979127741588, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 596.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.023000182863645, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.084033613445378, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.383333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.038837970676894325, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8822400646366712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0530638804419674, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9558557852648817, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.929055145947665, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8521934643488608, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.289348171701113, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020495", "date": "20251213", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020197", "date": "20251102", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020598", "date": "20241231", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020137", "date": "20241027", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": 1.7687960147322457, "index": 101.76879601473225, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.165885660731021, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.54920337394564, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.75445173383318, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.373945641986875, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.360824742268042, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.795688847235239, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -1.4714738245039456, "index": 98.52852617549605, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.7687960147322457, "zonePPFit": -1.4714738245039456, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7046737324651393, "attemptProjection": 1.0167949015668467, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9435.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.104166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.43943404837973526, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 596.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8564913085189186, "projectedAttempts": 0.17244791446689636, "onNet": 0.5591320444261622, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.616121514689978, "ppAdjusted": 0.07794613565934831, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.860734317015993, "baseline": 0.7721518987341772, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481032", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020495", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8253013497032666, "adjustedSOG": 0.8062145516322254, "reductionPct": 2.3127065135545632, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.616121514689978, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6004651978550135, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6016224301569386, "afterRecentZones": 0.6143977842243259, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5999392639519685, "adjusted": 0.5846941556831984, "playerFactor": 0.9745889139371436, "defenseFactor": 0.9764671672919341, "oldChartFactor": 1.0530638804419674, "newChartFactor": 1.0452486358855462, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8379218472468917, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8885472191050638, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07794613565934831, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07756216454772591, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0779461356593483, "afterRecentZones": 0.0779461356593483, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0779461356593483, "adjusted": 0.0775621645477259, "playerFactor": 0.9950738916256158, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9558557852648817, "newChartFactor": 0.9558557852648817, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9371069182389938, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8062145516322254, "adjustedSOG": 0.7900902605995809, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 348, "beforeSOG": 0.7900902605995809, "adjustedSOG": 0.7900902605995809 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.12599193786905777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12876895409656378, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11837804549359691, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24448821642603785 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285277506101698, "modelSOG": 0.7900902605995809, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16097221177314222, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.690699901369555, "btb": { "id": "8481032", "name": "Paul Cotter", "score": 37.690699901369555, "components": { "Goal model": 43.18766066838046, "SOG model": 10.796915167095115, "Unit attack": 11.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 29.82005141388175, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 61.5995115995116, "Goalie H2H": 51.00913937547601 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9614017026153712, "unitPlayers": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 290 } }, { "id": "8481043", "name": "Cole Koepke", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.303030303030303, "currentTOI": 9.660416666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 8.64375, "ppShare": 0.007898894154818325, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03125, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.715, "currentIXG": 0.089375, "priorTOI": 10.458585858585858, "priorPPTOI": 0.00808080808080808, "deploymentChange": -0.7981691919191913, "ppTOIChange": 0.02316919191919192, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021025", "date": "20250311", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020669", "date": "20250111", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020042", "date": "20241014", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11420695237024912, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.12102586588879266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1235424342889191, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11398895816659438, "goalProbability": 0.11621586230307529, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22269041364809117, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.059706641119686, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.941431670281996, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.64375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007898894154818325, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.042671980468189, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9841867136275031, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1899.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.6936776491540515, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.507575757575758, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017706706226039597, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9683312445772679, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7722656674373916, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.006672226855713, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021025", "date": "20250311", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020669", "date": "20250111", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020042", "date": "20241014", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020004", "date": "20241008", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Koepke", "Morgan Barron", "Brad Lambert" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": -7.591144418753615, "index": 92.40885558124639, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.809960681520314, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.342070773263433, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.90563564875492, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.910878112712975, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.19659239842726, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.834862385321101, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.591144418753615, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8500000000000002, "attemptProjection": 0.9449817330252156, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 4149.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.64375, "projectedAttempts": 2.125, "onNet": 0.4932761932909709, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.042671980468189, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8974908665126079, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8974908665126079, "baseline": 1.303030303030303, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481043", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.059706641119686, "adjustedSOG": 1.059706641119686, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.059706641119686, "adjustedSOG": 1.059706641119686, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 290, "beforeSOG": 1.059706641119686, "adjustedSOG": 1.059706641119686 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.13535651035619253, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13535651035619253, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12659552156496398, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863739711299504, "modelSOG": 1.059706641119686, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 66, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10614525139664804, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11420695237024912, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 30.506251671025222, "btb": { "id": "8481043", "name": "Cole Koepke", "score": 30.506251671025222, "components": { "Goal model": 39.84575835475579, "SOG model": 25.70694087403599, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 27.763496143958868, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 32.15811965811966, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.5842109533479367, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Koepke", "Morgan Barron", "Brad Lambert" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 355 } }, { "id": "8481122", "name": "Simon Benoit", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.7, "priorSOG": 0.821917808219178, "currentTOI": 14.355, "currentFiveTOI": 12.506666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0010496850944716584, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.225, "currentIXG": 0.0225, "priorTOI": 17.296118721461184, "priorPPTOI": 0.005479452054794521, "deploymentChange": -2.9411187214611836, "ppTOIChange": -0.0004794520547945205, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020369", "date": "20251126", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020319", "date": "20251120", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020166", "date": "20251029", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021216", "date": "20250405", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020757", "date": "20250122", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03160779326509925, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.02427875152623895, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02400934544089186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02398639344737717, "goalProbability": 0.023723414019851865, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02629794275253068, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7681254848324734, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3582089552238807, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.506666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010496850944716584, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005120728738643363, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2858.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.02825469785048, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.19931506849315, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0014726169570645356, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1696797153465435, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.187250996015936, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020369", "date": "20251126", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020319", "date": "20251120", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020166", "date": "20251029", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021216", "date": "20250405", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020757", "date": "20250122", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020097", "date": "20241022", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 89, "fitPct": 5.655990511551451, "index": 105.65599051155145, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.12359550561798, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.247191011235955, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.7977528089887642, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.468164794007492, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7977528089887642, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.5655430711610485, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.655990511551451, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8049999999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.6595278718160072, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7504.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.506666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.5999999999999999, "onNet": 0.4084327199010084, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005120728738643363, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7322639359080036, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7322639359080036, "baseline": 0.821917808219178, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481122", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7681254848324734, "adjustedSOG": 0.7681254848324734, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7322639359080036, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7322639359080036, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7322639359080036, "afterRecentZones": 0.7322639359080036, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7322639359080036, "adjusted": 0.7322639359080036, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1696797153465435, "newChartFactor": 1.1696797153465435, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.56666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5487066593285634, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7681254848324734, "adjustedSOG": 0.7681254848324734, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7681254848324734, "adjustedSOG": 0.7681254848324734 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.020159001360236184, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019786181533293395, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01995716722584552, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.036544751811867435 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05795675551996339, "modelSOG": 0.7681254848324734, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.008695652173913044, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03160779326509925, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481133", "name": "Cole Reinhardt", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.05, "currentFiveTOI": 9.05, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020574", "date": "20241228", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.5 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14110131529938852, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0086448480146264, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 398.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.071100338332576, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020574", "date": "20241228", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.5 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 543.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.05, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4952076677316294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481133", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.129534785375918, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0756056808688386, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858413078500938, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 77, "seasonGames": { "2024": 17, "2025": 59, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 62.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16129032258064516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14110131529938852, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481161", "name": "Jake Christiansen", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.375, "priorSOG": 0.65, "currentTOI": 13.875, "currentFiveTOI": 12.658333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 40, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.181, "currentIXG": 0.022625, "priorTOI": 10.04625, "priorPPTOI": 0.00041666666666666664, "deploymentChange": 3.8287499999999994, "ppTOIChange": -0.00041666666666666664, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04165603355607942, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.02424571479533454, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023955038957739594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02395414861586947, "goalProbability": 0.023670394432242746, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.028375418362672558, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5820456900365647, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7774851876234365, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.658333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2265.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9671102822751547, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.830833333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 9.619445356857965e-05, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2312403810192412, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.8723043372910104, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Christiansen", "Denton Mateychuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": 7.708012700641376, "index": 107.70801270064138, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.60317460317461, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.46031746031746, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 39.047619047619044, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8888888888888888, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.708012700641376, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.43124999999999997, "attemptProjection": 0.7157578732489809, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 6076.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.658333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.875, "onNet": 0.35317783866871616, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5735039366244904, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5735039366244904, "baseline": 0.65, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 40, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481161", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6041023619746942, "adjustedSOG": 0.5939241735066987, "reductionPct": 1.6848450045328422, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5735039366244904, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5735039366244904, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5565402891778313, "afterRecentZones": 0.5735039366244904, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5565402891778313, "adjusted": 0.5565402891778313, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.2312403810192412, "newChartFactor": 1.2312403810192412, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1951581177182629, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5939241735066987, "adjustedSOG": 0.5820456900365647, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 379, "beforeSOG": 0.5820456900365647, "adjustedSOG": 0.5820456900365647 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.015298347801805076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015561491580326933, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015181922539907895, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0259114656359416 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05789678274986852, "modelSOG": 0.5820456900365647, "historyGames": 116, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 40, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 87.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.022988505747126436, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04165603355607942, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 27.070065346806704, "btb": { "id": "8481161", "name": "Jake Christiansen", "score": 27.070065346806704, "components": { "Goal model": 1.5424164524421593, "SOG model": 2.827763496143959, "Unit attack": 46.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 10.539845758354756, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 61.53846153846154, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.502015002641037, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Christiansen", "Denton Mateychuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 376 } }, { "id": "8481219", "name": "Jonathan Aspirot", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7704918032786885, "currentTOI": 16.966666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.775, "ppShare": 0.008342022940563087, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.265, "currentIXG": 0.06625, "priorTOI": 16.739890710382515, "priorPPTOI": 0.019398907103825136, "deploymentChange": 0.22677595628415048, "ppTOIChange": 0.013934426229508197, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.058163122800482185, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.04532465381414764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04532465381414764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04431283602002981, "goalProbability": 0.04431283602002981, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7792678871391666, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.803486529318542, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008342022940563087, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.039020792670427705, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 959.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.862797766310879, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.461202185792349, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004424129148703933, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.803486529318542, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.3 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": -17.479143228670083, "index": 82.52085677132992, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.3136288998358, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.45977011494252873, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.410509031198686, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.977011494252873, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9195402298850575, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9195402298850575, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -17.479143228670083, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 0.781251551466476, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3786.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.775, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.40604338158417885, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.039020792670427705, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8156257757332379, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8156257757332379, "baseline": 0.7704918032786885, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481219", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.797572186751418, "adjustedSOG": 0.7951713134073128, "reductionPct": 0.3010227016421174, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8156257757332379, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8156257757332379, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8116243201597293, "afterRecentZones": 0.8156257757332379, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8116243201597292, "adjusted": 0.8116243201597292, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.13333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7951713134073128, "adjustedSOG": 0.7792678871391666, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7792678871391666, "adjustedSOG": 0.7792678871391666 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.0630142758361668, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060610286452792886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06106993041838938, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2259893210289403 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578263154287281, "modelSOG": 0.7792678871391666, "historyGames": 65, "seasonGames": { "2025": 61, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 51.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.058163122800482185, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481237", "name": "Kyle MacLean", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.7288135593220338, "currentTOI": 9.533333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.494444444444445, "ppShare": 0.008871989860583017, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.208, "currentIXG": 0.06933333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.519491525423728, "priorPPTOI": 0.03474576271186441, "deploymentChange": -0.9861581920903948, "ppTOIChange": 0.004143126177024482, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09203319623290292, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.05554576280287106, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05554576280287106, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05403126750074801, "goalProbability": 0.05403126750074801, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6035405166447193, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1064950263311877, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.494444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008871989860583017, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04429945846295656, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0082313293627068, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 789.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071185892250445, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.125344710712824, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3582089552238807, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": 4.178157023760804, "index": 104.1781570237608, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.733333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.400000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.86666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.178157023760804, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.6977741543893948, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1709.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.494444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.4909819053465463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04429945846295656, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5405537438613641, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5405537438613641, "baseline": 0.7288135593220338, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481237", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.615857670045632, "adjustedSOG": 0.615857670045632, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.615857670045632, "adjustedSOG": 0.6035405166447193, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6035405166447193, "adjustedSOG": 0.6035405166447193 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.0552575309084812, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0552575309084812, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053758569842752825, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866805227745096, "modelSOG": 0.6035405166447193, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 59, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 105.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09203319623290292, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481477", "name": "Nico Sturm", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 0.7551020408163265, "currentTOI": 10.423809523809524, "currentFiveTOI": 8.288095238095238, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.732, "currentIXG": 0.10457142857142857, "priorTOI": 10.942176870748298, "priorPPTOI": 0.015306122448979591, "deploymentChange": -0.5183673469387742, "ppTOIChange": -0.015306122448979591, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021153", "date": "20250328", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020487", "date": "20241214", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.5 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12307515504656999, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 102.0, "goalExpected": 0.09012706651682126, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09383651334895836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08618493740329042, "goalProbability": 0.08956840651330389, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.33834691100134706, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7322929350177815, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.170927894283252, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.288095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0114213881458354, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1675.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.927765237020316, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.040816326530612, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0029009639219145407, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8340828800542743, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.582496413199426, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021153", "date": "20250328", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020487", "date": "20241214", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020145", "date": "20241028", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -5.530570664857521, "index": 94.46942933514248, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.3, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.530570664857521, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.75, "attemptProjection": 0.7433437737236652, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3481.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.288095238095238, "projectedAttempts": 1.2857142857142858, "onNet": 0.5171698794697204, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6038147440046897, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7466718868618326, "baseline": 0.7551020408163265, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 49, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481477", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7500439484436302, "adjustedSOG": 0.7472376887936546, "reductionPct": 0.3741460291491805, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6038147440046897, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6038147440046897, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5991376445880638, "afterRecentZones": 0.6038147440046897, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5991376445880637, "adjusted": 0.5991376445880637, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.8340828800542743, "newChartFactor": 0.8243838159760631, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 42.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.051026570048309, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7472376887936546, "adjustedSOG": 0.7322929350177815, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 355, "beforeSOG": 0.7322929350177815, "adjustedSOG": 0.7322929350177815 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.0803326136287312, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0803326136287312, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0771906436337144, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286118131940714, "modelSOG": 0.7322929350177815, "historyGames": 118, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 49, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 102.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12307515504656999, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.992129566000916, "btb": { "id": "8481477", "name": "Nico Sturm", "score": 31.992129566000916, "components": { "Goal model": 29.04884318766067, "SOG model": 8.997429305912597, "Unit attack": 53.57142857142857, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 38.303341902313626, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 37.016687016687015, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5561680487151754, "unitPlayers": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 345 } }, { "id": "8481522", "name": "Peyton Krebs", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.1341463414634145, "currentTOI": 13.640909090909092, "currentFiveTOI": 13.360606060606061, "ppShare": 0.017815420560747662, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09242424242424242, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.253, "currentIXG": 0.1139090909090909, "priorTOI": 13.76361788617886, "priorPPTOI": 0.07601626016260163, "deploymentChange": -0.12270879526976763, "ppTOIChange": 0.016407982261640794, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.5 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12495016463752802, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.1068837707632137, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10493102972655034, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10136988598705732, "goalProbability": 0.09961337964379272, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17565063432646022, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8554112039249911, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4495350419596282, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.360606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.017815420560747662, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09358381935594261, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9938645659748523, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.75140523586224, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.62566844919786, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.089837398373982, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0158602264535007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0314277451074905, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.122113279844589, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.908307526592164, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Peyton Krebs", "Tyson Kozak", "Beck Malenstyn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 134, "fitPct": 4.070442661486297, "index": 104.0704426614863, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.34942932396839, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.155399473222126, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.7963125548727, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.968393327480246, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.834942932396839, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8955223880597015, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.070442661486297, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6272727272727273, "attemptProjection": 0.8828574918587958, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 8818.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.360606060606061, "projectedAttempts": 1.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.43943404837973526, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 61.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09358381935594261, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7550651095657616, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7550651095657616, "baseline": 1.1341463414634145, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481522", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9066976023248228, "adjustedSOG": 0.8728685754336645, "reductionPct": 3.73101536878655, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7550651095657616, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7228998960509722, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7301266651998464, "afterRecentZones": 0.7546974055625943, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7297711057994558, "adjusted": 0.6986833980804977, "playerFactor": 0.9574007418601456, "defenseFactor": 0.9669717961405245, "oldChartFactor": 1.122113279844589, "newChartFactor": 1.120797725932976, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.31666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7190540907855395, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8434201266713582, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8728685754336645, "adjustedSOG": 0.8554112039249911, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 330, "beforeSOG": 0.8554112039249911, "adjustedSOG": 0.8554112039249911 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.07531284162249287, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07521346875808542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.072546705054629, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.009216826995950278 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861095933870315, "modelSOG": 0.8554112039249911, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12290502793296089, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12495016463752802, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.60467955469386, "btb": { "id": "8481522", "name": "Peyton Krebs", "score": 39.60467955469386, "components": { "Goal model": 35.732647814910024, "SOG model": 15.424164524421593, "Unit attack": 3.5714285714285716, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 31.876606683804628, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 61.92511192511193, "Goalie H2H": 48.45880814496544 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8199101297570588, "unitPlayers": [ "Peyton Krebs", "Tyson Kozak", "Beck Malenstyn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 272 } }, { "id": "8481523", "name": "Kirby Dach", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 1.2702702702702702, "currentTOI": 10.286363636363637, "currentFiveTOI": 9.284848484848485, "ppShare": 0.10453648915187377, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.40151515151515155, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.895, "currentIXG": 0.08136363636363636, "priorTOI": 13.657207207207207, "priorPPTOI": 1.3572072072072072, "deploymentChange": -3.3708435708435704, "ppTOIChange": -0.9556920556920556, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.75 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12966375820468698, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.12426182647095634, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13025350429692836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1168514210669302, "goalProbability": 0.12212714183152372, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5275720764593526, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9583389236242623, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.1122715404699735, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.284848484848485, "Current_PP_Share": 0.10453648915187377, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.44839818301356765, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 0.956490660479933, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 265.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.07378524295141, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.3896448722203782, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.014414414414414, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2856667148431855, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0899863657021664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9802598900803826, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0684699150323214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.329017939707786, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Florian Xhekaj" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -0.6580036639872446, "index": 99.34199633601276, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.43910521955261, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.785418392709197, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.697597348798666, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.00248550124275, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.0049710024855, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.070422535211268, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6580036639872446, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6799354004751136, "attemptProjection": 0.8927401258883603, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 6128.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.284848484848485, "projectedAttempts": 1.7272727272727273, "onNet": 0.4644855789926819, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 265.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.44839818301356765, "projectedAttempts": 0.1015241169087323, "onNet": 0.4991841588539506, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7631192893570624, "ppAdjusted": 0.023218473824674464, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.786337763181737, "baseline": 1.2702702702702702, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481523", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9799107660171503, "adjustedSOG": 0.9778968608410841, "reductionPct": 0.20551924174195824, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7631192893570624, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7631192893570624, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7631192893570624, "afterRecentZones": 0.7597627807302856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7597627807302856, "adjusted": 0.7597627807302856, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9802598900803826, "newChartFactor": 0.9705817624957944, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.228671679197995, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1785179019807128, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.023218473824674464, "afterPlayerForm": 0.023218473824674464, "afterRecentDefense": 0.023218473824674464, "afterRecentZones": 0.023218473824674464, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.023218473824674464, "adjusted": 0.023218473824674464, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9778968608410841, "adjustedSOG": 0.9583389236242623, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 310, "beforeSOG": 0.9583389236242623, "adjustedSOG": 0.9583389236242623 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.12105392622365939, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12105392622365939, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11401381958431235, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128599744527155, "modelSOG": 0.9583389236242623, "historyGames": 105, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 37, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 138.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12966375820468698, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.326765795238686, "btb": { "id": "8481523", "name": "Kirby Dach", "score": 44.326765795238686, "components": { "Goal model": 41.38817480719794, "SOG model": 20.565552699228792, "Unit attack": 73.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 18.76606683804627, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 54.02745402745403, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.972631121330533, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Florian Xhekaj" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 224 } }, { "id": "8481524", "name": "Bowen Byram", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.329268292682927, "currentTOI": 24.7, "currentFiveTOI": 19.905555555555555, "ppShare": 0.7592472420506164, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.25, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.403, "currentIXG": 0.06716666666666667, "priorTOI": 22.341056910569105, "priorPPTOI": 1.5252032520325203, "deploymentChange": 2.3589430894308947, "ppTOIChange": 1.7247967479674797, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021102", "date": "20260321", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020844", "date": "20260129", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020305", "date": "20241120", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0771722545087674, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.09526470928478119, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09526470928478119, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09086775313332417, "goalProbability": 0.09086775313332417, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2344424805414793, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.5023723137036004, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.23076923076923, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.905555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7592472420506164, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.410515603799186, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1170.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1541.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3362736012326795, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.2366737739872065, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.203455284552845, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182222976124846, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0046583747273414, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.076924828381548, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0174159413905457, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.5023723137036004, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.23076923076923, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021102", "date": "20260321", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020844", "date": "20260129", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020305", "date": "20241120", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020012", "date": "20241010", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": 0.15527915757805033, "index": 100.15527915757805, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.607843137254896, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.49019607843137, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.274509803921568, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.8758169934640523, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3071895424836601, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 2.564160946051601, "index": 102.5641609460516, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.8695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.73913043478261, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.15527915757805033, "zonePPFit": 2.564160946051601, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9396349047500749, "attemptProjection": 1.4028156401442868, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 7166.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.905555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.3224086078994854, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1170.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.410515603799186, "projectedAttempts": 0.8744911804613298, "onNet": 0.4383838383838384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4939289544316713, "ppAdjusted": 0.510629651348843, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.171225272447181, "baseline": 1.329268292682927, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481524", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2344424805414793, "adjustedSOG": 1.2344424805414793, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2344424805414793, "adjustedSOG": 1.2344424805414793, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2344424805414793, "adjustedSOG": 1.2344424805414793 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.09436131514573418, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09746435282243236, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09004607729720114, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2819244932411702 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769054388700358, "modelSOG": 1.2344424805414793, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08653846153846154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0771722545087674, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481528", "name": "Dylan Cozens", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 2.5, "currentTOI": 17.92638888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 12.786111111111111, "ppShare": 0.5976739177256084, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8541666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.903, "currentIXG": 0.24191666666666667, "priorTOI": 17.039634146341463, "priorPPTOI": 3.076829268292683, "deploymentChange": 0.8867547425474278, "ppTOIChange": 0.7773373983739833, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020630", "date": "20250104", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1112849169411744, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 420.0, "goalExpected": 0.2400132867101009, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24478093550206534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21338259056035985, "goalProbability": 0.2171239801993557, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.374138963899584, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.1567458853114188, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.038887681946557, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.08108108108108, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.786111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5976739177256084, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.847731041214511, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9768676705634148, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2775.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.690508490433643, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.841854934601665, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.034756097560974, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6227425684737089, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.832945885266557, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1039006489504333, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1030627423174124, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.6219944816712655, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.544303797468354, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020630", "date": "20250104", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Warren Foegele", "Dylan Cozens", "Drake Batherson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 203, "fitPct": -5.568470491114766, "index": 94.43152950888523, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.607553366174056, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.544061302681992, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.41981390257252, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.729064039408868, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.689107827038864, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.0103995621237, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 3.463354965014446, "index": 103.46335496501445, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.568470491114766, "zonePPFit": 3.463354965014446, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9170954684381585, "attemptProjection": 2.0966901515183425, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 41.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9206.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.786111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.47816508668915936, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2775.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.847731041214511, "projectedAttempts": 0.7388707566394407, "onNet": 0.5326485252598065, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4074317514262853, "ppAdjusted": 0.43279439188529845, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0068928099782504, "baseline": 2.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481528", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.20413568598695, "adjustedSOG": 2.2007611074606315, "reductionPct": 0.15310212287622527, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4074317514262853, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4074317514262853, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4074317514262855, "afterRecentZones": 1.4074317514262855, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4074317514262855, "adjusted": 1.4074317514262855, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.832945885266557, "newChartFactor": 0.832945885266557, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.43333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0964890224051453, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1559287136039578, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.43279439188529845, "afterPlayerForm": 0.43279439188529845, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4280375478820747, "afterRecentZones": 0.43191729820632596, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4271700943414341, "adjusted": 0.4271700943414341, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.1039006489504333, "newChartFactor": 1.0998275920476945, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4864554637281908, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2007611074606315, "adjustedSOG": 2.1567458853114188, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 67, "beforeSOG": 2.1567458853114188, "adjustedSOG": 2.1567458853114188 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 415.0, "goalExpected": 0.2297418046169297, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22227226867798083, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2052612261027919, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5958555953356426 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12868156809410683, "modelSOG": 2.1567458853114188, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 420.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1112849169411744, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.599068227558, "btb": { "id": "8481528", "name": "Dylan Cozens", "score": 63.599068227558, "components": { "Goal model": 76.60668380462725, "SOG model": 83.03341902313625, "Unit attack": 52.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.62068965517241, "Shot quality": 74.80719794344473, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 57.067718606180144, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4704499527093544, "unitPlayers": [ "Warren Foegele", "Dylan Cozens", "Drake Batherson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 61 } }, { "id": "8481532", "name": "Alex Turcotte", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.0806451612903225, "currentTOI": 14.105555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 11.416666666666666, "ppShare": 0.283596837944664, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5944444444444443, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.32599999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.10866666666666665, "priorTOI": 10.825537634408601, "priorPPTOI": 0.2948924731182796, "deploymentChange": 3.280017921146955, "ppTOIChange": 1.2995519713261647, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.909090909090908, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1006731991766866, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.06921525023914853, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07010198116987104, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06687419709268344, "goalProbability": 0.06770126185822913, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08270647655456848, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6875240958387766, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7518248175182483, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.416666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.283596837944664, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2110874056773262, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9922586224939202, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 287.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1012.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.056527590847914, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.563354603463993, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.386021505376343, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06919057320937068, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0258048859407862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1237537044644583, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1453205952466345, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7518248175182483, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": 16.64365631740803, "index": 116.64365631740803, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.9230769230769231, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 77.30769230769229, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9230769230769231, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.38461538461538464, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": 4.125123482148609, "index": 104.12512348214861, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 16.64365631740803, "zonePPFit": 4.125123482148609, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.5143237843978576, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2055.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.416666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.509865824782952, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 287.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2110874056773262, "projectedAttempts": 0.253189004671218, "onNet": 0.5102785993354512, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.38393546627799635, "ppAdjusted": 0.06489309258759915, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4488285588655955, "baseline": 1.0806451612903225, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481532", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7015551998354863, "adjustedSOG": 0.7015551998354863, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7015551998354863, "adjustedSOG": 0.6875240958387766, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6875240958387766, "adjustedSOG": 0.6875240958387766 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.066056689573071, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.066056689573071, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06392220306321937, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866280196641589, "modelSOG": 0.6875240958387766, "historyGames": 133, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 62, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08163265306122448, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1006731991766866, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481533", "name": "Trevor Zegras", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.076923076923077, "priorSOG": 2.0617283950617282, "currentTOI": 18.53974358974359, "currentFiveTOI": 14.475641025641027, "ppShare": 0.6251598056762976, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1346153846153846, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.08 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.167, "currentIXG": 0.32053846153846155, "priorTOI": 18.718930041152262, "priorPPTOI": 2.7808641975308643, "deploymentChange": -0.17918645140867184, "ppTOIChange": 0.35375118708452025, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 21.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13739070270180742, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.2810156990288265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2778974439853325, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24498351763835408, "goalProbability": 0.24262550915906936, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23580084792847178, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0453763864847723, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.782570188645824, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.779141104294478, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.475641025641027, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6251598056762976, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0497468241012085, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3076923076923077, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0029891850709194, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2445.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.377699813616928, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.453940066592676, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.013991769547326, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6530841568264717, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.016855500362784, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0020556539052299, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9802066473216001, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.018945803343159, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9512922526678143, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.4050168247170385, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.696419027258151, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020238", "date": "20241110", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Noel Acciari" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 172, "fitPct": 0.06852179684099724, "index": 100.068521796841, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.511627906976745, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.736434108527131, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.031007751937985, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.379844961240313, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.449612403100776, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.891472868217054, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 64, "fitPct": -0.6597784226133285, "index": 99.34022157738667, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.625, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.471153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.96153846153846, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.70192307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.625, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.06852179684099724, "zonePPFit": -0.6597784226133285, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.052959843389418, "attemptProjection": 2.034642123662623, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 11291.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.475641025641027, "projectedAttempts": 1.846153846153846, "onNet": 0.5373024781970468, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2445.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0497468241012085, "projectedAttempts": 1.3471274315048283, "onNet": 0.5305127398553005, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0884055566088244, "ppAdjusted": 0.6477031192248883, "other": 0.3076923076923077 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0438009835260207, "baseline": 2.0617283950617282, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481533", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.0509719481403037, "adjustedSOG": 2.0453763864847723, "reductionPct": 0.2728248750844764, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0884055566088244, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0884055566088244, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0884055566088244, "afterRecentZones": 1.0884055566088244, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0884055566088244, "adjusted": 1.0884055566088244, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0020556539052299, "newChartFactor": 1.0020556539052299, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5749442053244063, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1698315100215602, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6477031192248883, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6477031192248883, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6383771831323362, "afterRecentZones": 0.6477031192248883, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6383771831323362, "adjusted": 0.6383771831323362, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 0.9802066473216001, "newChartFactor": 0.9802066473216001, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4270932823941418, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0453763864847723, "adjustedSOG": 2.0453763864847723, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 82, "beforeSOG": 2.0453763864847723, "adjustedSOG": 2.0453763864847723 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.2604523961698472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25563559917024925, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22929715608990958, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.37212742625427064 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857155459108513, "modelSOG": 2.0453763864847723, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 292.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1404109589041096, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13739070270180742, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.58037484501192, "btb": { "id": "8481533", "name": "Trevor Zegras", "score": 61.58037484501192, "components": { "Goal model": 83.80462724935732, "SOG model": 79.17737789203085, "Unit attack": 27.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 87.40359897172236, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 47.191697191697195, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.192481611765573, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Noel Acciari" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 72 } }, { "id": "8481534", "name": "Raphael Lavoie", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 0, "currentTOI": 11.096296296296295, "currentFiveTOI": 11.04074074074074, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.991, "currentIXG": 0.1101111111111111, "priorTOI": 8.566666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.5296296296296283, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10718717274031311, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.06205805937500084, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0623598940098822, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.060171680637801414, "goalProbability": 0.06045531056860563, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.028362993080421894, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5789690854646528, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.0382422006038245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.04074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9927827949489821, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2474.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.566666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9433368775474039, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7767416737200428, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.213592233009709, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -7.441944209331908, "index": 92.55805579066809, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 57.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.441944209331908, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9444444444444443, "attemptProjection": 1.0396856329584059, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 5962.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.04074074074074, "projectedAttempts": 2.111111111111111, "onNet": 0.5079638398622471, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9920650387014252, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9920650387014252, "baseline": 0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481534", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5952390232208551, "adjustedSOG": 0.5789690854646528, "reductionPct": 2.733345281726529, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9920650387014252, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9920650387014252, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9649484757744211, "afterRecentZones": 0.9920650387014252, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9649484757744212, "adjusted": 0.9649484757744212, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9478369959776317, "oldChartFactor": 0.7767416737200428, "newChartFactor": 0.7767416737200428, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0783143425574244, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.753604198526345, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5789690854646528, "adjustedSOG": 0.5789690854646528, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5789690854646528, "adjustedSOG": 0.5789690854646528 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.12946348445202208, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13084496458095551, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12143333082612034, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12128844146503115 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862460728837574, "modelSOG": 0.5789690854646528, "historyGames": 19, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 1, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 20.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10718717274031311, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481535", "name": "Nils Hoglander", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 0.9210526315789473, "currentTOI": 10.987878787878786, "currentFiveTOI": 10.36969696969697, "ppShare": 0.11131331513497118, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.556060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.947, "currentIXG": 0.17700000000000002, "priorTOI": 11.521929824561402, "priorPPTOI": 0.20043859649122805, "deploymentChange": -0.5340510366826159, "ppTOIChange": 0.35562200956937795, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020778", "date": "20260119", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020545", "date": "20251219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020265", "date": "20241114", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1114814621873091, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 132.0, "goalExpected": 0.11773532910027172, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11773532910027172, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11106870427192216, "goalProbability": 0.11106870427192216, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0560978192271553, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.786090005844535, "Current_PP_SOG60": 29.427792915531334, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.36969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11131331513497118, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5852381871490152, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.02969383070874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 367.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.836988737403675, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.098684210526315, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0531226308588135, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1010860484544696, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9860863678151418, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8845494752728499, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085765942172395, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.367583212735166, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 33.43653250773994, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020778", "date": "20260119", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020545", "date": "20251219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020265", "date": "20241114", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Kerfoot", "Mavrik Bourque", "Nils Hoglander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": -0.46378773949527385, "index": 99.53621226050473, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.10304449648712, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.75175644028103, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.887587822014055, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.59016393442623, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.070257611241217, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.597189695550352, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -3.848350824238338, "index": 96.15164917576166, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.46378773949527385, "zonePPFit": -3.848350824238338, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3297480746895594, "attemptProjection": 0.9625078139623614, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6844.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.36969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 1.4545454545454544, "onNet": 0.5462046204620462, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 367.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5852381871490152, "projectedAttempts": 0.3827170706151598, "onNet": 0.5270072611398423, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9287519004706102, "ppAdjusted": 0.2173760438553502, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1461279443259604, "baseline": 0.9210526315789473, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 38, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481535", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0560978192271553, "adjustedSOG": 1.0560978192271553, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0560978192271553, "adjustedSOG": 1.0560978192271553, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 291, "beforeSOG": 1.0560978192271553, "adjustedSOG": 1.0560978192271553 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 132.0, "goalExpected": 0.12469764542825446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12469764542825446, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1172362301001135, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863699227455713, "modelSOG": 1.0560978192271553, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 38, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 132.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09848484848484848, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1114814621873091, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.0666087916434, "btb": { "id": "8481535", "name": "Nils Hoglander", "score": 45.0666087916434, "components": { "Goal model": 38.81748071979435, "SOG model": 25.44987146529563, "Unit attack": 36.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 57.326478149100254, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.0499671268902, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.279154037057577, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Kerfoot", "Mavrik Bourque", "Nils Hoglander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 217 } }, { "id": "8481538", "name": "Judd Caulfield", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.507407407407406, "currentFiveTOI": 10.237037037037037, "ppShare": 0.295696947407135, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.488888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.506, "currentIXG": 0.27844444444444444, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13508699091973028, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.16432840666596277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16432840666596277, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15153666489365958, "goalProbability": 0.15153666489365958, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2164635953998557, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.861070911722142, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.477611940298507, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.237037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.295696947407135, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3908784852514167, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0249616817777094, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 804.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.077574047954866, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cutter Gauthier", "Leo Carlsson", "Judd Caulfield" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 12.004415332633926, "index": 112.00441533263393, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 13.329501585456882, "index": 113.32950158545688, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.004415332633926, "zonePPFit": 13.329501585456882, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2693664371670992, "attemptProjection": 1.163560753632612, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 5528.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.237037037037037, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5238385376999238, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 804.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3908784852514167, "projectedAttempts": 0.31139070565330224, "onNet": 0.4992149453122921, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0669380787842746, "ppAdjusted": 0.14952551661558097, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2164635953998557, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481538", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2164635953998557, "adjustedSOG": 1.2164635953998557, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2164635953998557, "adjustedSOG": 1.2164635953998557, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 241, "beforeSOG": 1.2164635953998557, "adjustedSOG": 1.2164635953998557 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.11887585500595207, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1147864803704655, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11208197550218768, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.36384638982648876 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859569001170332, "modelSOG": 1.2164635953998557, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13508699091973028, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 51.09254498714653, "btb": { "id": "8481538", "name": "Judd Caulfield", "score": 51.09254498714653, "components": { "Goal model": 55.7840616966581, "SOG model": 38.303341902313626, "Unit attack": 25.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 80.20565552699229, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.189097108847812, "unitPlayers": [ "Cutter Gauthier", "Leo Carlsson", "Judd Caulfield" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 160 } }, { "id": "8481540", "name": "Cole Caufield", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 3.185185185185185, "currentTOI": 19.009090909090908, "currentFiveTOI": 14.496969696969698, "ppShare": 0.7092702169625247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 36.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.724242424242424, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.265, "currentIXG": 0.3877272727272727, "priorTOI": 18.183539094650204, "priorPPTOI": 3.201851851851852, "deploymentChange": 0.8255518144407041, "ppTOIChange": -0.47760942760942804, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16851389270052924, "goalHistoryGoals": 94.0, "goalHistoryShots": 534.0, "goalExpected": 0.5072084533300221, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5316651165649968, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.39782576782486956, "goalProbability": 0.4123743106726648, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.454854284779522, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.0098910256105498, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.03010033444816, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.013348164627363, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.496969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7092702169625247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0423393700316774, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5454545454545454, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0162873411382372, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1798.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.821694834704607, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.186813186813186, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.854732510288066, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6739298871063579, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0899863657021664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9702527265798432, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7596641921564761, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.057562243257381, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.025527964724994, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.013348164627363, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 39, "priorAttempts": 255, "fitPct": -0.9915757806718943, "index": 99.0084242193281, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.829562594268477, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.455505279034693, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.69079939668175, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.739064856711916, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.003016591251885, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.282051282051281, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": -8.011193594784132, "index": 91.98880640521587, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3953488372093026, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3255813953488373, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.93355481727575, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 52.624584717607966, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.790697674418605, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9302325581395349, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9915757806718943, "zonePPFit": -8.011193594784132, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.370636072432457, "attemptProjection": 3.4246244002690016, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 47.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 9568.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.496969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 4.272727272727273, "onNet": 0.5026843648101182, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1798.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0423393700316774, "projectedAttempts": 1.2182894029047875, "onNet": 0.5495946179058134, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.2865307023815102, "ppAdjusted": 0.5656449885146739, "other": 0.5454545454545454 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.3976302363507296, "baseline": 3.185185185185185, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481540", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.312652215884512, "adjustedSOG": 3.3024917990021394, "reductionPct": 0.3067154720816201, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.2865307023815102, "afterPlayerForm": 2.2865307023815102, "afterRecentDefense": 2.2865307023815102, "afterRecentZones": 2.2791724138232317, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.2791724138232317, "adjusted": 2.2791724138232317, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9702527265798432, "newChartFactor": 0.964064486013418, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.56666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1221376283974627, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1785179019807128, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5656449885146739, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5560692489356652, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5656449885146739, "afterRecentZones": 0.5656449885146739, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5656449885146739, "adjusted": 0.5560692489356652, "playerFactor": 0.9830711139081183, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7596641921564761, "newChartFactor": 0.7596641921564761, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8698597000483792, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.3024917990021394, "adjustedSOG": 3.2364419630220964, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 11, "beforeSOG": 3.2364419630220964, "adjustedSOG": 3.0098910256105498 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 94.0, "goalHistoryShots": 534.0, "goalExpected": 0.5573836649942161, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5573836649942161, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4272945051530294, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283780797213554, "modelSOG": 3.0098910256105498, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 94.0, "historyShots": 534.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1760299625468165, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16851389270052924, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 71.7783082348141, "btb": { "id": "8481540", "name": "Cole Caufield", "score": 71.7783082348141, "components": { "Goal model": 99.22879177377892, "SOG model": 97.4293059125964, "Unit attack": 70.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.172413793103445, "Shot quality": 93.05912596401028, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 50.366300366300365, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8697249851059112, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 9 } }, { "id": "8481546", "name": "Cam York", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.2027027027027026, "currentTOI": 21.82333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 15.95, "ppShare": 0.2328854766474728, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2133333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.44, "currentIXG": 0.088, "priorTOI": 22.535810810810812, "priorPPTOI": 1.6006756756756757, "deploymentChange": -0.7124774774774814, "ppTOIChange": -0.3873423423423423, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.053021600479227604, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.06246050920977758, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06176742409554482, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06054983828980089, "goalProbability": 0.059898493674601185, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06513446151997088, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1780200643744785, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0094043887147337, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.95, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2328854766474728, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1360963010355203, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 364.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1563.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4731363983979056, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.130856901646265, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.3759009009009, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3759176463667241, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0490517467040568, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8691964121820013, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0959391890170618, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0094043887147337, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Cam York" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": 1.6350582234685618, "index": 101.63505822346856, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.35023041474655, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.16436251920123, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.741935483870968, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.732718894009215, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1505376344086025, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8602150537634409, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -4.360119593933291, "index": 95.63988040606671, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.6350582234685618, "zonePPFit": -4.360119593933291, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2359296791059888, "attemptProjection": 1.0883875679747719, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 4785.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.95, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.3992759918911092, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 364.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1360963010355203, "projectedAttempts": 0.18726862104981107, "onNet": 0.4335511982570806, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8413392978390749, "ppAdjusted": 0.12081932570130541, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1621586235403805, "baseline": 1.2027027027027026, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481546", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1783762552053094, "adjustedSOG": 1.1780200643744785, "reductionPct": 0.030227257996540136, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8413392978390749, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8413392978390749, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8413392978390749, "afterRecentZones": 0.8413392978390749, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8413392978390749, "adjusted": 0.8413392978390749, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0490517467040568, "newChartFactor": 1.0490517467040568, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12081932570130541, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12081932570130541, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12022567431658747, "afterRecentZones": 0.12081932570130541, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12022567431658747, "adjusted": 0.12022567431658747, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 0.8691964121820013, "newChartFactor": 0.8687483161937741, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.066666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1780200643744785, "adjustedSOG": 1.1780200643744785, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 255, "beforeSOG": 1.1780200643744785, "adjustedSOG": 1.1780200643744785 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.05863074202721897, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05754642724864906, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05694506457476524, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10231229969340505 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785616124599176, "modelSOG": 1.1780200643744785, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 74, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.053021600479227604, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.71913984280459, "btb": { "id": "8481546", "name": "Cam York", "score": 34.71913984280459, "components": { "Goal model": 16.709511568123393, "SOG model": 34.70437017994858, "Unit attack": 12.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 39.84575835475579, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 47.360482654600304, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8561824084778504, "unitPlayers": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Cam York" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 316 } }, { "id": "8481553", "name": "Bobby Brink", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.3846153846153846, "priorSOG": 1.5294117647058822, "currentTOI": 13.093589743589744, "currentFiveTOI": 11.755128205128205, "ppShare": 0.3007075471698113, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3076923076923077, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.278, "currentIXG": 0.17523076923076925, "priorTOI": 15.159313725490195, "priorPPTOI": 1.9245098039215687, "deploymentChange": -2.065723981900451, "ppTOIChange": -0.616817496229261, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020976", "date": "20260305", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020790", "date": "20260121", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020854", "date": "20250204", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020441", "date": "20241208", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12495794722836173, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 227.0, "goalExpected": 0.16436612144672727, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17113109685394778, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15156866389890833, "goalProbability": 0.1572889105428899, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5720246643981575, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.315371491709501, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.889409968371687, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.755128205128205, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3007075471698113, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2667466058901788, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0307968238292269, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1020.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.47945205479452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.169638308711157, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.882352941176471, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3647516558917568, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0261828814460394, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2477288015403525, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.576075300845943, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.08829568788501, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020976", "date": "20260305", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020790", "date": "20260121", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020854", "date": "20250204", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020441", "date": "20241208", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": -8.853864372356469, "index": 91.14613562764353, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.904761904761902, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.047619047619047, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.190476190476191, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.19047619047619, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": 8.25762671801175, "index": 108.25762671801175, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.567567567567568, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.64864864864865, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.135135135135137, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.324324324324323, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 39.24324324324324, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0810810810810811, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.853864372356469, "zonePPFit": 8.25762671801175, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.237844277258708, "attemptProjection": 1.3203781917429491, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9169.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.755128205128205, "projectedAttempts": 2.3846153846153846, "onNet": 0.4944383327221611, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1020.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2667466058901788, "projectedAttempts": 0.44708703737300426, "onNet": 0.5081855732419908, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0227700060185396, "ppAdjusted": 0.25634122848228896, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2791112345008284, "baseline": 1.5294117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481553", "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020790", "date": "20260121", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3792314465828501, "adjustedSOG": 1.3422158078668378, "reductionPct": 2.6837873228399256, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0227700060185396, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9616259111271493, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0227700060185396, "afterRecentZones": 1.0227700060185396, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0227700060185396, "adjusted": 0.9616259111271493, "playerFactor": 0.940217160718847, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6144361330529984, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1388422276779944, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.25634122848228896, "afterPlayerForm": 0.25634122848228896, "afterRecentDefense": 0.25634122848228896, "afterRecentZones": 0.25579259218032546, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.25579259218032546, "adjusted": 0.25579259218032546, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2477288015403525, "newChartFactor": 1.2424031246621148, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.633333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2814070351758793, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3422158078668378, "adjustedSOG": 1.315371491709501, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 216, "beforeSOG": 1.315371491709501, "adjustedSOG": 1.315371491709501 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 225.0, "goalExpected": 0.17967135258143838, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17967135258143838, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16445523407660162, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286124874367429, "modelSOG": 1.315371491709501, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 68, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 227.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12334801762114538, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12495794722836173, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.11275463923359, "btb": { "id": "8481553", "name": "Bobby Brink", "score": 54.11275463923359, "components": { "Goal model": 56.041131105398456, "SOG model": 44.73007712082262, "Unit attack": 97.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 55.26992287917738, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 60.30389363722697, "Goalie H2H": 53.41034103410341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.1965044000721345, "unitPlayers": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 131 } }, { "id": "8481557", "name": "Matt Boldy", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 4.538461538461538, "priorSOG": 3.3421052631578947, "currentTOI": 21.707692307692305, "currentFiveTOI": 15.451282051282051, "ppShare": 0.7597287735849056, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 59.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.303846153846154, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.54 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 8.43, "currentIXG": 0.6484615384615384, "priorTOI": 20.56907894736842, "priorPPTOI": 3.5723684210526314, "deploymentChange": 1.138613360323884, "ppTOIChange": -0.2685222672064773, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12680479855930632, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 585.0, "goalExpected": 0.4514594195033583, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4700405714062955, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3633017366250243, "goalProbability": 0.3750230884238792, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.1721351798854918, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.5602707833821583, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.753401924991703, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.763678696158323, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.451282051282051, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7597287735849056, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2003980425284224, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.8461538461538461, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0307968238292269, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2577.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.960069256573965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.712707182320441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.185745614035087, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6770697111436859, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0261828814460394, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.796503387559938, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.155826795155027, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.2209457654288, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.936254980079681, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 22.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 53, "priorAttempts": 253, "fitPct": -6.783220414668733, "index": 93.21677958533127, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.173167275710345, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.01312551271534, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.758818703855617, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 77 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.59020061152957, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.089865016034008, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.374822880155119, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": 5.194226505167563, "index": 105.19422650516756, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 37.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.783220414668733, "zonePPFit": 5.194226505167563, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.2283001859579095, "attemptProjection": 4.336811688247766, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 68.0, "sog": 36.0, "seconds": 12052.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.451282051282051, "projectedAttempts": 5.23076923076923, "onNet": 0.5173686860211445, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 2577.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2003980425284224, "projectedAttempts": 1.862862655720851, "onNet": 0.4994452280206864, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.3988953570005718, "ppAdjusted": 1.0375067339484199, "other": 0.8461538461538461 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.282555937102838, "baseline": 3.3421052631578947, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481557", "goals": 2, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 9 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.906375667524861, "adjustedSOG": 3.9063756675248604, "reductionPct": 1.1102230246251565e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.3988953570005718, "afterPlayerForm": 2.3988953570005718, "afterRecentDefense": 2.3988953570005718, "afterRecentZones": 2.3988953570005718, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.3988953570005718, "adjusted": 2.3988953570005718, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.796503387559938, "newChartFactor": 0.796503387559938, "playerRecentAttempts": 29.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.63333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1326186710911779, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1388422276779944, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.0375067339484199, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0375067339484199, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0375067339484199, "afterRecentZones": 1.0375067339484199, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0375067339484199, "adjusted": 1.0375067339484199, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.155826795155027, "newChartFactor": 1.155826795155027, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0646760563380282, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.9063756675248604, "adjustedSOG": 3.8282481541743634, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 2, "beforeSOG": 3.8282481541743634, "adjustedSOG": 3.5602707833821583 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 582.0, "goalExpected": 0.5187258838887235, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5187258838887235, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.40472148105217376, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861287013124845, "modelSOG": 3.5602707833821583, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 76, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 585.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1264957264957265, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12680479855930632, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.47567328454906, "btb": { "id": "8481557", "name": "Matt Boldy", "score": 65.47567328454906, "components": { "Goal model": 98.45758354755785, "SOG model": 99.74293059125964, "Unit attack": 98.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 37.93103448275862, "Shot quality": 99.48586118251929, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 38.21015585721468, "Goalie H2H": 54.50335356116257 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.326603743094937, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 49 } }, { "id": "8481559", "name": "Jack Hughes", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 3.737704918032787, "currentTOI": 20.39242424242424, "currentFiveTOI": 16.098484848484848, "ppShare": 0.6622558286074354, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 39.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1848484848484846, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.029, "currentIXG": 0.5480909090909091, "priorTOI": 21.315573770491802, "priorPPTOI": 2.7972677595628412, "deploymentChange": -0.9231495280675617, "ppTOIChange": 0.38758072528564336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 24.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11722515898650761, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 496.0, "goalExpected": 0.3714774837321788, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3687479450462209, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31028546454850664, "goalProbability": 0.3084002903842575, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18851741642491593, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.1689228399761453, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.825882352941177, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.850618458610847, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.098484848484848, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6622558286074354, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6594651620171463, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5454545454545454, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0494556571212856, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2102.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.071939905621008, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76850947450674, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.0224043715847, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.721224878528114, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.719193770041228, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.103545301069218, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 6.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 24.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 49, "priorAttempts": 221, "fitPct": -9.733848404660463, "index": 90.26615159533954, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.552313232985503, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.845692123003047, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.400036937852065, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.570689814387293, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.104349432080525, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.5269184596915695, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -10.124313112852562, "index": 89.87568688714744, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.92436974789916, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.4901960784313735, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.196078431372548, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 44.48179271708683, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.33613445378151, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.733848404660463, "zonePPFit": -10.124313112852562, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.1415162971873745, "attemptProjection": 3.4648224309894675, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 69.0, "sog": 29.0, "seconds": 10625.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.098484848484848, "projectedAttempts": 6.272727272727273, "onNet": 0.4580926293169202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2102.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6594651620171463, "projectedAttempts": 1.1490233144297415, "onNet": 0.49220014042800014, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.345851979547395, "ppAdjusted": 0.4118628390864804, "other": 0.5454545454545454 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.303169364088421, "baseline": 3.737704918032787, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481559", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.4769835856661677, "adjustedSOG": 3.4769835856661677, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.4769835856661677, "adjustedSOG": 3.4074439139528443, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 8, "beforeSOG": 3.4074439139528443, "adjustedSOG": 3.1689228399761453 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 492.0, "goalExpected": 0.4978130699986819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.508681947797388, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.39214144871720324, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6570966112016019 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866194755958535, "modelSOG": 3.1689228399761453, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 61, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 496.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11491935483870967, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11722515898650761, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 71.39156027585938, "btb": { "id": "8481559", "name": "Jack Hughes", "score": 71.39156027585938, "components": { "Goal model": 95.88688946015424, "SOG model": 98.20051413881748, "Unit attack": 95.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 65.51724137931035, "Shot quality": 98.7146529562982, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 55.864197530864196, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.00903497149229, "unitPlayers": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 11 } }, { "id": "8481563", "name": "Drew Helleson", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 0.65, "currentTOI": 18.380000000000003, "currentFiveTOI": 15.290000000000001, "ppShare": 0.0013633265167007499, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.006666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.405, "currentIXG": 0.081, "priorTOI": 16.96472222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.08472222222222221, "deploymentChange": 1.4152777777777814, "ppTOIChange": -0.07805555555555554, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.056380101622236264, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 109.0, "goalExpected": 0.0630954318224339, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0630954318224339, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06114612712227097, "goalProbability": 0.06114612712227097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1191081606271729, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.493786788750818, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.290000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0013633265167007499, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.00641271929615488, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1467.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1927562824232936, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.006954102920723, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.4 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": 6.425209414109787, "index": 106.42520941410979, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.4113263785395, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.986587183308494, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.9672131147540985, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9672131147540985, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.667660208643817, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.425209414109787, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6099999999999999, "attemptProjection": 1.2536938687572432, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 4587.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.290000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.6000000000000005, "onNet": 0.42788189703915164, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.00641271929615488, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4318469343786215, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4318469343786215, "baseline": 0.65, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481563", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1191081606271729, "adjustedSOG": 1.1191081606271729, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1191081606271729, "adjustedSOG": 1.1191081606271729, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1191081606271729, "adjustedSOG": 1.1191081606271729 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.08583829260488948, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.082885422684296, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08225737500908828, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2713979634564406 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057834412390473794, "modelSOG": 1.1191081606271729, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 60, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 109.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05504587155963303, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.056380101622236264, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481568", "name": "Alex Vlasic", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.075, "currentTOI": 19.95909090909091, "currentFiveTOI": 16.522727272727273, "ppShare": 0.011858974358974358, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05606060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.996, "currentIXG": 0.09054545454545454, "priorTOI": 21.074583333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.08229166666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.1154924242424222, "ppTOIChange": -0.026231060606060605, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.039982516633480646, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 195.0, "goalExpected": 0.03066304608255034, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03066304608255034, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030197703289441335, "goalProbability": 0.030197703289441335, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7669113568722599, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9807427785419531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.522727272727273, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011858974358974358, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05327015345765346, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 37.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3010827269200473, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.227848101265824, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.721458333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0190156666032712, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9817252883196244, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9941916411871751, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7880202642296612, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 27.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": -0.6091570560125206, "index": 99.39084294398748, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.81967213114754, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 94 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.655737704918033, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.573770491803279, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9836065573770493, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6091570560125206, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5422863497384591, "attemptProjection": 0.5807515065024074, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 10905.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.522727272727273, "projectedAttempts": 1.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.3932812047494932, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 37.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05327015345765346, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5615189281204332, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5615189281204332, "baseline": 1.075, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481568", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7669113568722599, "adjustedSOG": 0.7669113568722599, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7669113568722599, "adjustedSOG": 0.7669113568722599, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 351, "beforeSOG": 0.7669113568722599, "adjustedSOG": 0.7669113568722599 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.028224060037934748, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.029152198031262226, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02782948216657052, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09018897897605481 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057948424068767906, "modelSOG": 0.7669113568722599, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 195.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03076923076923077, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.039982516633480646, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 26.943829922220026, "btb": { "id": "8481568", "name": "Alex Vlasic", "score": 26.943829922220026, "components": { "Goal model": 3.341902313624679, "SOG model": 10.025706940874036, "Unit attack": 17.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 22.36503856041131, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.45940170940171, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0058429515601124, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 380 } }, { "id": "8481580", "name": "Connor McMichael", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.8205128205128205, "currentTOI": 15.757575757575758, "currentFiveTOI": 12.02727272727273, "ppShare": 0.4271374177916234, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8696969696969696, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.025, "currentIXG": 0.18409090909090908, "priorTOI": 16.906196581196582, "priorPPTOI": 1.5405982905982907, "deploymentChange": -1.1486208236208242, "ppTOIChange": 0.32909867909867896, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020940", "date": "20260228", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020727", "date": "20260113", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020320", "date": "20251120", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020665", "date": "20250110", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020430", "date": "20241207", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12611759035147352, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 335.0, "goalExpected": 0.20759334497388313, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1970341665906683, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18746260804857784, "goalProbability": 0.1788374234922657, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8625184556312143, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6460300612733494, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6281179138321997, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.834683954619125, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.02727272727273, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4271374177916234, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3156025467551946, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.000585908181893, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1234.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.343346199026683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.486823855755894, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.732905982905983, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3520647853513609, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9861132151694187, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9546463269133463, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9663637093227713, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9413893587821959, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9772490235731849, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.835092140494566, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.239168110918544, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020940", "date": "20260228", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020727", "date": "20260113", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020320", "date": "20251120", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020665", "date": "20250110", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020430", "date": "20241207", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020164", "date": "20241031", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Connor McMichael", "Mason McTavish", "Jonatan Berggren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": -1.5117891028884571, "index": 98.48821089711154, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.23841059602649, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.47682119205298, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.09933774834437, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.62251655629139, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.178807947019868, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.3841059602649, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -1.1212096892409562, "index": 98.87879031075904, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 72.6923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.5117891028884571, "zonePPFit": -1.1212096892409562, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3592493430524506, "attemptProjection": 1.7001671005082863, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 7938.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.02727272727273, "projectedAttempts": 2.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.4427078836024522, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1234.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.3156025467551946, "projectedAttempts": 0.6755404512413858, "onNet": 0.5370511841100077, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7902047923673524, "ppAdjusted": 0.28495797486756147, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5297082217803686, "baseline": 1.8205128205128205, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481580", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6460300612733494, "adjustedSOG": 1.6460300612733494, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6460300612733494, "adjustedSOG": 1.6460300612733494, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 138, "beforeSOG": 1.6460300612733494, "adjustedSOG": 1.6460300612733494 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 332.0, "goalExpected": 0.15793214736817768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15523086498309338, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1460922801110328, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23097641403017344 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286115180289098, "modelSOG": 1.6460300612733494, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 335.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1253731343283582, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12611759035147352, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.836137306262636, "btb": { "id": "8481580", "name": "Connor McMichael", "score": 60.836137306262636, "components": { "Goal model": 67.09511568123393, "SOG model": 64.78149100257069, "Unit attack": 72.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 51.724137931034484, "Shot quality": 58.868894601542415, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 63.51495726495727, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.941972302418596, "unitPlayers": [ "Connor McMichael", "Mason McTavish", "Jonatan Berggren" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 76 } }, { "id": "8481581", "name": "Thomas Harley", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 1.6142857142857143, "currentTOI": 24.75909090909091, "currentFiveTOI": 20.153030303030302, "ppShare": 0.2567755385684503, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1196969696969696, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.715, "currentIXG": 0.1559090909090909, "priorTOI": 23.056428571428572, "priorPPTOI": 1.573095238095238, "deploymentChange": 1.702662337662339, "ppTOIChange": -0.45339826839826847, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06857462234535275, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 305.0, "goalExpected": 0.11791371779527472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11791371779527472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11122726542253555, "goalProbability": 0.11122726542253555, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7194949642076396, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.330501466055184, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.871447902571042, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.153030303030302, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2567755385684503, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1099706235390738, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 739.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.088989851601274, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.903889813833812, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.285238095238096, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3256706685165103, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9892162299296985, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8442593433605063, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9413629882702119, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8423645320197046, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.070422535211268, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 135, "fitPct": -0.35945900234338524, "index": 99.64054099765661, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 72.2905982905983, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 96 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.478632478632479, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.085470085470086, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.170940170940172, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.381766381766382, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5925925925925927, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": -5.191355221316456, "index": 94.80864477868354, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.35945900234338524, "zonePPFit": -5.191355221316456, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8094931102364873, "attemptProjection": 1.8148929240100227, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 13301.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.153030303030302, "projectedAttempts": 3.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.38662967218781236, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 739.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1099706235390738, "projectedAttempts": 0.2703582032977446, "onNet": 0.4171907756813417, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3569973308040533, "ppAdjusted": 0.09155932268283812, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.812193017123255, "baseline": 1.6142857142857143, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481581", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7330300959882385, "adjustedSOG": 1.7194949642076396, "reductionPct": 0.7810096207752637, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3569973308040533, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3360573301250762, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3569973308040533, "afterRecentZones": 1.3569973308040533, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3569973308040533, "adjusted": 1.3360573301250762, "playerFactor": 0.9845688711365632, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9892162299296985, "newChartFactor": 0.9892162299296985, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 101.08333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9180314039763032, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.09155932268283812, "afterPlayerForm": 0.09155932268283812, "afterRecentDefense": 0.08994077039415002, "afterRecentZones": 0.09155932268283812, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.08994077039415002, "adjusted": 0.08994077039415002, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.8442593433605063, "newChartFactor": 0.8442593433605063, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.966666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.064245810055866, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7194949642076396, "adjustedSOG": 1.7194949642076396, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 121, "beforeSOG": 1.7194949642076396, "adjustedSOG": 1.7194949642076396 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 302.0, "goalExpected": 0.11285291281799109, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11285291281799109, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1067179592083088, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057727220498678615, "modelSOG": 1.7194949642076396, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 305.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07213114754098361, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06857462234535275, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.521138551896534, "btb": { "id": "8481581", "name": "Thomas Harley", "score": 52.521138551896534, "components": { "Goal model": 39.0745501285347, "SOG model": 69.15167095115682, "Unit attack": 62.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 62.06896551724138, "Shot quality": 49.3573264781491, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.04010519395135, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7171992848253383, "unitPlayers": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 147 } }, { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.4406779661016949, "currentTOI": 12.088888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 10.372222222222222, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 14.018079096045199, "priorPPTOI": 0.012146892655367232, "deploymentChange": -1.92919020715631, "ppTOIChange": -0.012146892655367232, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020131", "date": "20261017", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06125775171244264, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.015442643803224668, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01618725982149792, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015324017598490178, "goalProbability": 0.016056950197253894, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07329325987637161, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.25209289227126447, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.372222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 635.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.7243174576730045, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.564689265536725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0025566935556965474, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0763043542341266, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1210486773504358, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7955112219451372, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020131", "date": "20261017", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": 2.543478474470888, "index": 102.54347847447089, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.234042553191486, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.702127659574465, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.702127659574467, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.1063829787234045, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.543478474470888, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.2698881957802723, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1867.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.372222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666666, "onNet": 0.38377999064358753, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.13494409789013614, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.13494409789013614, "baseline": 0.4406779661016949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481593", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "season": 2024 }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "season": 2024 }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020817", "date": "20240211", "season": 2023 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2025–26 regular-season shots; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets", "coverageNote": "Games count only encounters with a recorded unblocked attempt; shotless appearances are not established. This is not career history or a scoring probability." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.25723764517475967, "adjustedSOG": 0.25723764517475967, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.25723764517475967, "adjustedSOG": 0.25209289227126447, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.25209289227126447, "adjustedSOG": 0.25209289227126447 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.030830312945754675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030830312945754675, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03035990551163384, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057813643013899046, "modelSOG": 0.25209289227126447, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06578947368421052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06125775171244264, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 24.382930426471557, "btb": { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "score": 24.382930426471557, "components": { "Goal model": 2.827763496143959, "SOG model": 1.5424164524421593, "Unit attack": 3.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 18.251928020565554, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.01709401709402, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7026126526043763, "unitPlayers": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 388 } }, { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.42857142857142855, "priorSOG": 0.4406779661016949, "currentTOI": 17.01904761904762, "currentFiveTOI": 16.435714285714287, "ppShare": 0.006012024048096192, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.028571428571428574, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.317, "currentIXG": 0.04528571428571428, "priorTOI": 14.018079096045199, "priorPPTOI": 0.012146892655367232, "deploymentChange": 3.0009685230024203, "ppTOIChange": 0.016424535916061342, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021277", "date": "20260412", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021105", "date": "20260321", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021094", "date": "20250320", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020398", "date": "20241203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020081", "date": "20241019", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.55 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06125775171244264, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.02927931232140035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02927931232140035, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02885482623195073, "goalProbability": 0.02885482623195073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.47796909783506064, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.5645371577574967, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.435714285714287, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006012024048096192, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03160867188923301, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1996.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.7243174576730045, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.564689265536725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0025566935556965474, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.960500982503204, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9078658190629302, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7955112219451372, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021277", "date": "20260412", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021105", "date": "20260321", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021094", "date": "20250320", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020398", "date": "20241203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020081", "date": "20241019", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -1.3166339165598657, "index": 98.68336608344013, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.234042553191486, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.702127659574465, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.702127659574467, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.1063829787234045, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3166339165598657, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3890853510269701, "attemptProjection": 0.6165743536209721, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 6903.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.435714285714287, "projectedAttempts": 1.7142857142857144, "onNet": 0.3702670889268799, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03160867188923301, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5028298523239711, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5028298523239711, "baseline": 0.4406779661016949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481593", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.47796909783506064, "adjustedSOG": 0.47796909783506064, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.47796909783506064, "adjustedSOG": 0.47796909783506064, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 384, "beforeSOG": 0.47796909783506064, "adjustedSOG": 0.47796909783506064 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.030830312945754675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030830312945754675, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03035990551163384, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057813643013899046, "modelSOG": 0.47796909783506064, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06578947368421052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06125775171244264, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 24.382930426471557, "btb": { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "score": 24.382930426471557, "components": { "Goal model": 2.827763496143959, "SOG model": 1.5424164524421593, "Unit attack": 3.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 18.251928020565554, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.01709401709402, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7026126526043763, "unitPlayers": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 388 } }, { "id": "8481596", "name": "Shane Pinto", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.8333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.1805555555555554, "currentTOI": 19.63611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 13.193055555555555, "ppShare": 0.3480508292052552, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2444444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.456, "currentIXG": 0.288, "priorTOI": 18.711805555555557, "priorPPTOI": 1.7550925925925924, "deploymentChange": 0.9243055555555522, "ppTOIChange": 0.48935185185185204, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14496140953619865, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 306.0, "goalExpected": 0.242984202064565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24781086542690967, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2157160962598378, "goalProbability": 0.2194924497188833, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3776353459045506, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6761992232414713, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.9268344036214335, "Current_PP_SOG60": 20.04950495049505, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.193055555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3480508292052552, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6583543649018557, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9768676705634148, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1616.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.536346976175931, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.819836454761276, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.641666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.35522636250362233, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8279330077321555, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8827772744090737, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8821072096397391, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.716981132075472, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.380825565912117, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ridly Greig", "Shane Pinto", "Michael Amadio" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": -5.73556640892815, "index": 94.26443359107185, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.194805194805195, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.462337662337667, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.56623376623377, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.555844155844156, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.08051948051948, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.14025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 43, "fitPct": -3.90742418636421, "index": 96.09257581363579, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.875264270613105, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.792811839323466, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.456659619450313, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.315010570824524, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.560253699788584, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.73556640892815, "zonePPFit": -3.90742418636421, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4096557494010478, "attemptProjection": 1.5481708510808534, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9499.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.193055555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.48141278610891874, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 1616.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6583543649018557, "projectedAttempts": 0.7388707566394406, "onNet": 0.5649065897759357, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0276077383828244, "ppAdjusted": 0.4513055618581263, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4789133002409507, "baseline": 2.1805555555555554, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481596", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7595702023667927, "adjustedSOG": 1.7104073706545626, "reductionPct": 2.7940250207750372, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0276077383828244, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9509326980532447, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0276077383828244, "afterRecentZones": 1.0276077383828244, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0276077383828244, "adjusted": 0.9509326980532447, "playerFactor": 0.9253849134590545, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8279330077321555, "newChartFactor": 0.8279330077321555, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5351118622243682, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1559287136039578, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4513055618581263, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4513055618581263, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4463452615497173, "afterRecentZones": 0.45099948555717906, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.44604254933398924, "adjusted": 0.44604254933398924, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 0.8827772744090737, "newChartFactor": 0.881671771904156, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.016666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9192399049881237, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7104073706545626, "adjustedSOG": 1.6761992232414713, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 134, "beforeSOG": 1.6761992232414713, "adjustedSOG": 1.6761992232414713 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.21720644848423803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21014447134068032, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19523619011480897, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5703338351083387 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854332271696647, "modelSOG": 1.6761992232414713, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 72, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 46.0, "historyShots": 306.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1503267973856209, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14496140953619865, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.78200073308193, "btb": { "id": "8481596", "name": "Shane Pinto", "score": 58.78200073308193, "components": { "Goal model": 77.37789203084833, "SOG model": 65.80976863753213, "Unit attack": 61.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 83.54755784061696, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 53.122945430637735, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.691548829478119, "unitPlayers": [ "Ridly Greig", "Shane Pinto", "Michael Amadio" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 91 } }, { "id": "8481598", "name": "Philip Broberg", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.2098765432098766, "currentTOI": 23.12121212121212, "currentFiveTOI": 18.48787878787879, "ppShare": 0.26479750778816197, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1590909090909092, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.647, "currentIXG": 0.14972727272727274, "priorTOI": 23.35761316872428, "priorPPTOI": 1.1779835390946503, "deploymentChange": -0.2364010475121603, "ppTOIChange": -0.018892630003741084, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06847473097852819, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 218.0, "goalExpected": 0.10858080064136069, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10305786808729131, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1028935948844989, "goalProbability": 0.09792522937047864, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4968365514020259, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5857061296875876, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.605638419931159, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.705882352941177, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.48787878787879, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26479750778816197, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4355234588879446, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 765.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0813800368712143, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.545851528384279, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.750617283950618, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.285577395580385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8583338349000279, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9876078182208801, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9987324303661701, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.640275746814289, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.153846153846154, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Philip Broberg", "Brandon Carlo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": -4.722205503332404, "index": 95.2777944966676, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 41.69230769230769, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.230769230769232, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.69230769230769, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.3076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.461538461538462, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -0.4130727259706646, "index": 99.58692727402934, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.722205503332404, "zonePPFit": -0.4130727259706646, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8533564503555857, "attemptProjection": 1.8191619243232038, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 12202.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.48787878787879, "projectedAttempts": 3.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.4234408642768103, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 765.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4355234588879446, "projectedAttempts": 0.11259007520689762, "onNet": 0.4335511982570806, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4837720345285699, "ppAdjusted": 0.07975988008355232, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8362591873393947, "baseline": 1.2098765432098766, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481598", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5857061296875876, "adjustedSOG": 1.5857061296875876, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5857061296875876, "adjustedSOG": 1.5857061296875876, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 144, "beforeSOG": 1.5857061296875876, "adjustedSOG": 1.5857061296875876 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.1289786035321181, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12677254456578327, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12100722731499154, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19412503566132583 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774964451171965, "modelSOG": 1.5857061296875876, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 218.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07339449541284404, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06847473097852819, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.46158422290714, "btb": { "id": "8481598", "name": "Philip Broberg", "score": 52.46158422290714, "components": { "Goal model": 36.246786632390744, "SOG model": 63.239074550128535, "Unit attack": 59.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.86206896551724, "Shot quality": 46.7866323907455, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 50.12210012210012, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6649491268325916, "unitPlayers": [ "Philip Broberg", "Brandon Carlo" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 148 } }, { "id": "8481601", "name": "Simon Holmstrom", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.2658227848101267, "currentTOI": 17.3969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 12.406060606060606, "ppShare": 0.4339622641509434, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1257575757575755, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.143, "currentIXG": 0.1948181818181818, "priorTOI": 16.728691983122363, "priorPPTOI": 1.3116033755274261, "deploymentChange": 0.6682777138473348, "ppTOIChange": 0.8141542002301494, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17842312666447366, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 213.0, "goalExpected": 0.2660159430985551, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2660159430985551, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23357309181611993, "goalProbability": 0.23357309181611993, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.490927482729302, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.715681485100147, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.5659301496792586, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.406060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4339622641509434, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.166852487135506, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.992892932238579, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1403.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.316255192677902, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.632459385555734, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.49324894514768, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.28615785726426285, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0144422562238045, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0920090420273103, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7928996991419743, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.10778011641098, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.362220717670954, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": 3.066968067577008, "index": 103.06696806757701, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.943769680611785, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.99055330634278, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.071524966261805, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.443544759334234, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.234817813765183, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684211, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": -6.903343361934191, "index": 93.09665663806581, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 39.523809523809526, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.61904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.066968067577008, "zonePPFit": -6.903343361934191, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.660688510885951, "attemptProjection": 1.7227296900791251, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8188.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.406060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.5006513809275664, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1403.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.166852487135506, "projectedAttempts": 0.463332677220707, "onNet": 0.4810616745736633, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.285259453892837, "ppAdjusted": 0.13372237386242836, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6917091004825382, "baseline": 1.2658227848101267, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481601", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5213545742135735, "adjustedSOG": 1.5213545742135735, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5213545742135735, "adjustedSOG": 1.490927482729302, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 166, "beforeSOG": 1.490927482729302, "adjustedSOG": 1.490927482729302 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.23818809408007466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23818809408007466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21194555122413497, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846438645980254, "modelSOG": 1.490927482729302, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 79, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 213.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.20187793427230047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17842312666447366, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.78944542343177, "btb": { "id": "8481601", "name": "Simon Holmstrom", "score": 66.78944542343177, "components": { "Goal model": 82.26221079691517, "SOG model": 57.58354755784062, "Unit attack": 91.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 79.3103448275862, "Shot quality": 64.01028277634961, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.72730972730973, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6698143433604704, "unitPlayers": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 42 } }, { "id": "8481605", "name": "Jackson Lacombe", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.9146341463414633, "currentTOI": 26.184848484848487, "currentFiveTOI": 18.10909090909091, "ppShare": 0.7982485685415965, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.590909090909091, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.411, "currentIXG": 0.1282727272727273, "priorTOI": 24.247967479674795, "priorPPTOI": 3.078658536585366, "deploymentChange": 1.9368810051736922, "ppTOIChange": 0.512250554323725, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.1 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07749311852310521, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.09636715109791386, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09636715109791386, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09186946626925933, "goalProbability": 0.09186946626925933, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2435575304558326, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.2048192771084338, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.518987341772152, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.10909090909091, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7982485685415965, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7547454229838877, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2370.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.219278653722828, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.080808080808081, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.382520325203252, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5879407517816386, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0680850507583721, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.5177065767284992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.8218623481781377, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.1 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jackson Lacombe", "Noah Warren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": 10.963327366219715, "index": 110.96332736621972, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.92307692307692, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.82051282051282, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.55128205128205, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.551282051282051, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": 2.2695016919457345, "index": 102.26950169194573, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 48.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.166666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.963327366219715, "zonePPFit": 2.2695016919457345, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6184062821651235, "attemptProjection": 0.9739399575657004, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 11952.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.10909090909091, "projectedAttempts": 1.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.3575605897532321, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2370.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7547454229838877, "projectedAttempts": 0.570341076908945, "onNet": 0.3948412698412698, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5204561486574242, "ppAdjusted": 0.1848078802988969, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.796173119865412, "baseline": 1.9146341463414633, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481605", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2435575304558326, "adjustedSOG": 1.2435575304558326, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2435575304558326, "adjustedSOG": 1.2435575304558326, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 236, "beforeSOG": 1.2435575304558326, "adjustedSOG": 1.2435575304558326 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.05704518973448574, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05508281350623447, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.055448615624199164, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18553850694264865 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764768053672771, "modelSOG": 1.2435575304558326, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 297.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08417508417508418, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07749311852310521, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.54052456770816, "btb": { "id": "8481605", "name": "Jackson Lacombe", "score": 47.54052456770816, "components": { "Goal model": 31.876606683804628, "SOG model": 39.588688946015424, "Unit attack": 28.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 68.96551724137932, "Shot quality": 39.588688946015424, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 70.11898776604659, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1677998792886823, "unitPlayers": [ "Jackson Lacombe", "Noah Warren" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 199 } }, { "id": "8481606", "name": "Jordan Spence", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.4794520547945205, "currentTOI": 21.445833333333336, "currentFiveTOI": 18.544444444444444, "ppShare": 0.06849020030152918, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.44166666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.86, "currentIXG": 0.07166666666666667, "priorTOI": 18.72579908675799, "priorPPTOI": 1.2648401826484017, "deploymentChange": 2.720034246575345, "ppTOIChange": -0.823173515981735, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021018", "date": "20250309", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020917", "date": "20250224", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020160", "date": "20241030", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05773640282491057, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.07033718323844698, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07173436833304554, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06792051466460326, "goalProbability": 0.06922189288366538, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13013782190621215, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2182467177899723, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.505092869982025, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.544444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06849020030152918, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3263345841824196, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 318.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.575708291762905, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.498194945848375, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.705251141552512, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2560004977098696, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8670514133534875, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8594122319301034, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021018", "date": "20250309", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020917", "date": "20250224", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020160", "date": "20241030", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020107", "date": "20241022", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Kleven", "Jordan Spence" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 163, "fitPct": -4.431619554883753, "index": 95.56838044511625, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.49352419904568, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 98 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.14383094751193, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.96319018404908, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2269938650306749, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.96864349011588, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2038173142467623, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.431619554883753, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0041666666666667, "attemptProjection": 1.1669269126208177, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 13352.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.544444444444444, "projectedAttempts": 2.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.3832158082961227, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 318.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3263345841824196, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0022134563104088, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0855467896437423, "baseline": 1.4794520547945205, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481606", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2431088957040535, "adjustedSOG": 1.2431088957040535, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0022134563104088, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0022134563104088, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0022134563104088, "afterRecentZones": 1.0022134563104088, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0022134563104088, "adjusted": 1.0022134563104088, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8670514133534875, "newChartFactor": 0.8604222915782682, "playerRecentAttempts": 23.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 89.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5947736856317902, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2431088957040535, "adjustedSOG": 1.2182467177899723, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 240, "beforeSOG": 1.2182467177899723, "adjustedSOG": 1.2182467177899723 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.055544148448285265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05373825589980215, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.054029740370554025, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17098640936734355 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782812070072457, "modelSOG": 1.2182467177899723, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.057692307692307696, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05773640282491057, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.31535085697209, "btb": { "id": "8481606", "name": "Jordan Spence", "score": 41.31535085697209, "components": { "Goal model": 22.10796915167095, "SOG model": 38.56041131105398, "Unit attack": 73.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 15.424164524421593, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 60.63034188034188, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.016786583981971, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Kleven", "Jordan Spence" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 256 } }, { "id": "8481618", "name": "Alex Newhook", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.4523809523809523, "currentTOI": 16.054545454545455, "currentFiveTOI": 11.713636363636363, "ppShare": 0.26942800788954635, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 42, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.034848484848485, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.086, "currentIXG": 0.18963636363636363, "priorTOI": 14.484523809523811, "priorPPTOI": 0.9996031746031746, "deploymentChange": 1.5700216450216438, "ppTOIChange": 0.0352453102453103, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1443316323382953, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.1818690096817382, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1906384004390538, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1662894587274088, "goalProbability": 0.17356862865096634, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7279169923557538, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.260077272981019, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2596041909196742, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.713636363636363, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26942800788954635, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1556828641444026, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0129869856635516, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 683.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.011268725971099, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.291385470424771, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.973015873015873, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2103977591036415, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0762282262848515, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0075367105417121, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0843394469031806, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6537625054371468, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 0.25122368472374035, "index": 100.25122368472374, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.529411764705884, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.352941176470594, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.470588235294116, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.25122368472374035, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0536705571202059, "attemptProjection": 1.3459777958711543, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7731.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.713636363636363, "projectedAttempts": 2.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.44538387518785616, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 683.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1556828641444026, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8361878128593163, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.19982417649568, "baseline": 1.4523809523809523, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 42, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481618", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.300846886849789, "adjustedSOG": 1.2857931356949175, "reductionPct": 1.1572269809037028, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8361878128593163, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8141894840453285, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8361878128593163, "afterRecentZones": 0.8330130347325312, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8330130347325312, "adjusted": 0.8110982276011971, "playerFactor": 0.9736921197897334, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0075367105417121, "newChartFactor": 0.9982655598052211, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8260988293401087, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1264171989753764, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.066666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2857931356949175, "adjustedSOG": 1.260077272981019, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 232, "beforeSOG": 1.260077272981019, "adjustedSOG": 1.260077272981019 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.19085050648569402, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19085050648569402, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17374390115312677, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856173378105637, "modelSOG": 1.260077272981019, "historyGames": 135, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 42, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1443316323382953, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.139115656010674, "btb": { "id": "8481618", "name": "Alex Newhook", "score": 54.139115656010674, "components": { "Goal model": 61.18251928020565, "SOG model": 40.616966580976865, "Unit attack": 63.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 13.793103448275861, "Shot quality": 62.08226221079691, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 55.43684710351377, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7184392449479278, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 130 } }, { "id": "8481641", "name": "Joel Kiviranta", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 0.9803921568627451, "currentTOI": 11.549999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 9.323809523809524, "ppShare": 0.0035842293906810036, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.019047619047619046, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.798, "currentIXG": 0.114, "priorTOI": 10.373856209150327, "priorPPTOI": 0.05849673202614379, "deploymentChange": 1.1761437908496717, "ppTOIChange": -0.03944911297852474, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1357796102478436, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 142.0, "goalExpected": 0.1273429727361492, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1273429727361492, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11956834324579191, "goalProbability": 0.11956834324579191, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9378652104222813, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.435137895812053, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.323809523809524, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0035842293906810036, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.015493646138807427, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0010657055328318, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2232.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.202886065044153, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.10392156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010678655626473462, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9388981467454425, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.913058094129966, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8572685524495508, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.541871921182266, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 67, "fitPct": -2.898063529001135, "index": 97.10193647099887, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.35820895522388, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.16417910447761, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.92537313432836, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.67910447761194, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.179104477611941, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.694029850746269, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.898063529001135, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.000125695306694, "attemptProjection": 0.8708342568540539, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 3916.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.323809523809524, "projectedAttempts": 1.5714285714285714, "onNet": 0.5206620227308437, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.015493646138807427, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.792622833223231, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9354799760803739, "baseline": 0.9803921568627451, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481641", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9534448483933224, "adjustedSOG": 0.9378652104222813, "reductionPct": 1.6340366196634037, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.792622833223231, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7795641076743158, "afterRecentDefense": 0.779499280580049, "afterRecentZones": 0.7925436080633134, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.779499280580049, "adjusted": 0.7666567699381625, "playerFactor": 0.9835246664598201, "defenseFactor": 0.973929739724079, "oldChartFactor": 0.913058094129966, "newChartFactor": 0.9128893321397706, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.43333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8756148981026002, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8785529715762274, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9378652104222813, "adjustedSOG": 0.9378652104222813, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 312, "beforeSOG": 0.9378652104222813, "adjustedSOG": 0.9378652104222813 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.1254940699058972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1254940699058972, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11793900488377093, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285866567997815, "modelSOG": 0.9378652104222813, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 51, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 142.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14084507042253522, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1357796102478436, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.36126622116339, "btb": { "id": "8481641", "name": "Joel Kiviranta", "score": 43.36126622116339, "components": { "Goal model": 43.44473007712082, "SOG model": 20.051413881748072, "Unit attack": 78.57142857142857, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 41.38817480719794, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.49192782526116, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0920001178688867, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 233 } }, { "id": "8481655", "name": "Cole Schwindt", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 7.2555555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 7.055555555555556, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.07999999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.02666666666666666, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020374", "date": "20241129", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11862638240592695, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 59.0, "goalExpected": 0.09383857800121906, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09440038683027535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08957028623601111, "goalProbability": 0.09008163003525878, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05113437992476655, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7910430723590083, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.669291338582677, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.055555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 0.9790227125446014, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 951.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.033878132620122, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.086623034386753, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.522504892367906, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020374", "date": "20241129", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": 1.1292710873374006, "index": 101.1292710873374, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.555555555555555, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.55555555555555, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.1292710873374006, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7244153562578353, "attemptProjection": 0.8899582608013654, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1270.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.055555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4918091809180918, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8071868085296003, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8071868085296003, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481655", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8071868085296003, "adjustedSOG": 0.8071868085296003, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8071868085296003, "adjustedSOG": 0.7910430723590083, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 346, "beforeSOG": 0.7910430723590083, "adjustedSOG": 0.7910430723590083 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.07999294173785887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07999294173785887, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0768771379932102, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861594802542387, "modelSOG": 0.7910430723590083, "historyGames": 74, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 29, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 59.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1016949152542373, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11862638240592695, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.387159481470846, "btb": { "id": "8481655", "name": "Cole Schwindt", "score": 33.387159481470846, "components": { "Goal model": 30.848329048843187, "SOG model": 11.311053984575835, "Unit attack": 9.523809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 37.53213367609254, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 41.814595660749504, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9400820824871499, "unitPlayers": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 329 } }, { "id": "8481711", "name": "Matias Maccelli", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.625, "priorSOG": 1.267605633802817, "currentTOI": 14.458333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.702083333333333, "ppShare": 0.6583469721767594, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3520833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.113, "currentIXG": 0.139125, "priorTOI": 14.564788732394366, "priorPPTOI": 1.7014084507042253, "deploymentChange": -0.10645539906103174, "ppTOIChange": 1.650674882629108, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020049", "date": "20251014", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020232", "date": "20241109", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12754486766773518, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.1778271193941589, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1778271193941589, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16291287289014064, "goalProbability": 0.16291287289014064, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3942318702890744, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.007981312049835, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.237414543194531, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.702083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6583469721767594, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2872461315280463, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9949576308000262, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1609.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2444.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.749967014117957, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.450331125827814, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.4537558685446, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45725793571048945, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0144422562238045, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0853187448326267, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1009931962299973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.007981312049835, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.237414543194531, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020049", "date": "20251014", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020232", "date": "20241109", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": 2.8439581610875564, "index": 102.84395816108756, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.607476635514018, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.598130841121495, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.96261682242991, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.093457943925234, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.364485981308412, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3738317757009346, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": -29.651947882713642, "index": 70.34805211728636, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 65.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.8439581610875564, "zonePPFit": -29.651947882713642, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.730436369562158, "attemptProjection": 1.3217080584595087, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 5137.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.702083333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.6249999999999998, "onNet": 0.5517521172473249, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1609.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2872461315280463, "projectedAttempts": 0.24516441005802705, "onNet": 0.5591320444261622, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1659558315096992, "ppAdjusted": 0.11011638250113427, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5260722140108334, "baseline": 1.267605633802817, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481711", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.422685581927627, "adjustedSOG": 1.422685581927627, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.422685581927627, "adjustedSOG": 1.3942318702890744, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.3942318702890744, "adjustedSOG": 1.3942318702890744 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.16028164674893766, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16028164674893766, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14809618076664458, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860466755975464, "modelSOG": 1.3942318702890744, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 71, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12698412698412698, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12754486766773518, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481716", "name": "Dmitri Voronkov", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 1.746031746031746, "currentTOI": 11.014285714285714, "currentFiveTOI": 9.547619047619047, "ppShare": 0.25058768218147626, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.269047619047619, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.996, "currentIXG": 0.1422857142857143, "priorTOI": 13.93994708994709, "priorPPTOI": 1.966137566137566, "deploymentChange": -2.9256613756613756, "ppTOIChange": -0.697089947089947, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14208540184190083, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.18668253887226283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1844444483969312, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17029290566990538, "goalProbability": 0.1684338665518999, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18590391180054733, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3138755737903707, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.386533665835412, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.50844277673546, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.547619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25058768218147626, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4076281147155618, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9983998478176945, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2127.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.330356938957272, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.141011840688913, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.584391534391536, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45391566915662473, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0986675273179953, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1076856574963725, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9073315753144381, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.921817290448697, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.640670319046085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.513761467889907, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitri Voronkov", "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "Ryan Lomberg" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 3.589521916545749, "index": 103.58952191654575, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.369747899159666, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.47899159663866, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.369747899159666, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.025210084033613, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.697478991596639, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -3.0889474895187305, "index": 96.91105251048127, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.589521916545749, "zonePPFit": -3.0889474895187305, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2778514567461448, "attemptProjection": 0.9628497248138738, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4010.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.547619047619047, "projectedAttempts": 1.2857142857142856, "onNet": 0.5262627957711025, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 533.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4076281147155618, "projectedAttempts": 0.47537159596397954, "onNet": 0.518082869840594, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8585264927876064, "ppAdjusted": 0.2618240979924029, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1203505907800093, "baseline": 1.746031746031746, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481716", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.370623052880704, "adjustedSOG": 1.3406893610105823, "reductionPct": 2.1839477898178195, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8585264927876064, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8585264927876064, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8205324791359561, "afterRecentZones": 0.8585264927876064, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8205324791359561, "adjusted": 0.8205324791359561, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9557450888576716, "oldChartFactor": 1.1076856574963725, "newChartFactor": 1.1076856574963725, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4398563734290843, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7889537542135877, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2618240979924029, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24992862519385045, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2618240979924029, "afterRecentZones": 0.2618240979924029, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2618240979924029, "adjusted": 0.24992862519385045, "playerFactor": 0.9545669291338583, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9073315753144381, "newChartFactor": 0.9073315753144381, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.4801801801801802, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3406893610105823, "adjustedSOG": 1.3138755737903707, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 217, "beforeSOG": 1.3138755737903707, "adjustedSOG": 1.3138755737903707 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.1816326671184996, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1847568937962932, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1660923941546296, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26012508245308597 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855769485187113, "modelSOG": 1.3138755737903707, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 63, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 272.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14705882352941177, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14208540184190083, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.02719435390358, "btb": { "id": "8481716", "name": "Dmitri Voronkov", "score": 40.02719435390358, "components": { "Goal model": 62.46786632390746, "SOG model": 44.473007712082264, "Unit attack": 16.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 48.58611825192802, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 47.578347578347575, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0688461700669807, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitri Voronkov", "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "Ryan Lomberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 268 } }, { "id": "8481721", "name": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.257575757575758, "currentTOI": 15.34848484848485, "currentFiveTOI": 13.55151515151515, "ppShare": 0.2570888468809074, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2363636363636363, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.097, "currentIXG": 0.28154545454545454, "priorTOI": 15.174242424242424, "priorPPTOI": 1.0214646464646466, "deploymentChange": 0.17424242424242564, "ppTOIChange": 0.2148989898989897, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.15 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11628895226957005, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.2394326470339159, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23767334613041466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21292571665573928, "goalProbability": 0.21153979739088952, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13859192648497665, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0589457756819907, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.85509838998211, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.823529411764707, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.55151515151515, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2570888468809074, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4206106432949532, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9668487729131949, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 816.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.752621517789201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.679851668726823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.606313131313131, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2633661768876786, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.947804473902236, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.424083769633508, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 38, "priorAttempts": 190, "fitPct": -9.253390326247441, "index": 90.74660967375256, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.05263157894737, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.789473684210527, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.842105263157894, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.105263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.157894736842104, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.052631578947368, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -12.458387551172578, "index": 87.54161244882742, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 48.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.253390326247441, "zonePPFit": -12.458387551172578, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9684854213209597, "attemptProjection": 2.024630492666434, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 8944.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.55151515151515, "projectedAttempts": 3.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4974508870912922, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 816.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4206106432949532, "projectedAttempts": 0.5222833247407916, "onNet": 0.546815751093826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6985500394134756, "ppAdjusted": 0.2070988266711304, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9965579569936969, "baseline": 2.257575757575758, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481721", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.100965077226521, "adjustedSOG": 2.100965077226521, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.100965077226521, "adjustedSOG": 2.0589457756819907, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 75, "beforeSOG": 2.0589457756819907, "adjustedSOG": 2.0589457756819907 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.2369727945982542, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2421466811458957, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2109872468654436, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4071720077473029 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863172921862195, "modelSOG": 2.0589457756819907, "historyGames": 77, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 174.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10919540229885058, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11628895226957005, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.90520990634261, "btb": { "id": "8481721", "name": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "score": 58.90520990634261, "components": { "Goal model": 76.34961439588689, "SOG model": 80.97686375321337, "Unit attack": 95.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 17.24137931034483, "Shot quality": 82.77634961439588, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 47.22222222222222, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.00903497149229, "unitPlayers": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 89 } }, { "id": "8481726", "name": "Adam Edstrom", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.8857142857142857, "currentTOI": 14.260606060606062, "currentFiveTOI": 12.642424242424243, "ppShare": 0.00545950864422202, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Forward unit pending", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 35, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02727272727272727, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.734, "currentIXG": 0.33945454545454545, "priorTOI": 9.460952380952381, "priorPPTOI": 0.011904761904761906, "deploymentChange": 4.79965367965368, "ppTOIChange": 0.015367965367965366, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020185", "date": "20241103", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.916666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13223189269244065, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.1760445543686653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1760445543686653, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1614193799253705, "goalProbability": 0.1614193799253705, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3313320318126953, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.177372962607862, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.642424242424243, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00545950864422202, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.028703780296136988, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.02969383070874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.688363321270197, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.342380952380953, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003249022519688284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1010860484544696, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9994313420473222, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1004599071164334, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.67301378857518, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020185", "date": "20241103", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.916666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "projectedPosition": null, "positionStatus": "Incomplete reported units; roster position retained", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": -0.01895526508926082, "index": 99.98104473491074, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.045454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.09090909090909, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 64.0909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.318181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.01895526508926082, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6550471713997454, "attemptProjection": 1.6017738870235245, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8344.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.642424242424243, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.4811624019544812, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.028703780296136988, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1738650746661805, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.628410529211635, "baseline": 0.8857142857142857, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 35, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481726", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3313320318126953, "adjustedSOG": 1.3313320318126953, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3313320318126953, "adjustedSOG": 1.3313320318126953, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 208, "beforeSOG": 1.3313320318126953, "adjustedSOG": 1.3313320318126953 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.18797649194828206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18797649194828206, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17136581342096766, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285959582617884, "modelSOG": 1.3313320318126953, "historyGames": 97, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 35, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 88.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13223189269244065, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.944195764247176, "btb": { "id": "8481726", "name": "Adam Edstrom", "score": 50.944195764247176, "components": { "Goal model": 59.383033419023135, "SOG model": 46.7866323907455, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 88.68894601542416, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.395752395752396, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 162 } }, { "id": "8481732", "name": "Andre Lee", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.7142857142857143, "currentTOI": 11.095833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.15, "ppShare": 0.06758130081300813, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 7, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.27708333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.012, "currentIXG": 0.1265, "priorTOI": 10.283333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "deploymentChange": 0.8125, "ppTOIChange": 0.2604166666666667, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11520712678345606, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 29.0, "goalExpected": 0.0979652275247796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09922028037919169, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09331956927140739, "goalProbability": 0.09445678735036005, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11372180789526593, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8503399942341724, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6945812807881775, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06758130081300813, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.28860287324464146, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 1.0384002664338976, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 133.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1968.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.174397031539889, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.266666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003910497300803083, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.911323328785811, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Andre Lee", "Samuel Helenius", "Corey Perry" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": 13.215883959098761, "index": 113.21588395909876, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.343434343434344, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.36363636363636, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.939393939393945, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.8989898989899, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 13.215883959098761, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.84375, "attemptProjection": 1.0961819531774568, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 4872.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.15, "projectedAttempts": 1.875, "onNet": 0.4578520521012534, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 133.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.28860287324464146, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8449659765887284, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9699659765887284, "baseline": 0.7142857142857143, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 7, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481732", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8676938716675229, "adjustedSOG": 0.8676938716675229, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8676938716675229, "adjustedSOG": 0.8503399942341724, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 332, "beforeSOG": 0.8503399942341724, "adjustedSOG": 0.8503399942341724 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 29.0, "goalExpected": 0.09272861908920475, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09272861908920475, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08855918562519625, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861719355065832, "modelSOG": 0.8503399942341724, "historyGames": 34, "seasonGames": { "2024": 19, "2025": 7, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 29.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06896551724137931, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11520712678345606, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 29.402695308792765, "btb": { "id": "8481732", "name": "Andre Lee", "score": 29.402695308792765, "components": { "Goal model": 32.390745501285345, "SOG model": 14.910025706940875, "Unit attack": 1.1904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 42.41645244215938, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7375680777283296, "unitPlayers": [ "Andre Lee", "Samuel Helenius", "Corey Perry" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 360 } }, { "id": "8481754", "name": "Nikita Nesterenko", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.0689655172413792, "currentTOI": 12.023333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.27, "ppShare": 0.022331566994700985, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.213, "currentIXG": 0.2213, "priorTOI": 12.256896551724138, "priorPPTOI": 0.07701149425287357, "deploymentChange": -0.2335632183908043, "ppTOIChange": 0.02132183908045976, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 11.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12110536940089313, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 64.0, "goalExpected": 0.15147963601891484, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15147963601891484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14056461637937623, "goalProbability": 0.14056461637937623, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2508085873341774, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.010710808179162, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.27, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022331566994700985, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10504165277064598, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9834267095119533, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 59.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2642.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.02689284236657, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 26.865671641791046, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.11264367816092, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014707118470202694, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1870632860850465, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 11.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikita Nesterenko", "Roger McQueen", "Alex Killorn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": 11.333541671626293, "index": 111.33354167162629, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.61904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.333541671626293, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.48, "attemptProjection": 1.264074601458753, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6162.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.27, "projectedAttempts": 1.9000000000000001, "onNet": 0.5436669983871522, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 59.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.10504165277064598, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2720373007293764, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3720373007293765, "baseline": 1.0689655172413792, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481754", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2508085873341774, "adjustedSOG": 1.2508085873341774, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2508085873341774, "adjustedSOG": 1.2508085873341774, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 235, "beforeSOG": 1.2508085873341774, "adjustedSOG": 1.2508085873341774 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.17722073942024608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1711242785650872, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16240512609165386, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5121961415986365 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861280581746473, "modelSOG": 1.2508085873341774, "historyGames": 59, "seasonGames": { "2024": 20, "2025": 29, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 64.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.109375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12110536940089313, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.32022640313129, "btb": { "id": "8481754", "name": "Nikita Nesterenko", "score": 50.32022640313129, "components": { "Goal model": 51.41388174807198, "SOG model": 39.84575835475579, "Unit attack": 34.523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 70.17994858611826, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.4985754985755, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.264949898733506, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikita Nesterenko", "Roger McQueen", "Alex Killorn" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 171 } }, { "id": "8481806", "name": "Louis Crevier", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.4675324675324675, "currentTOI": 13.88030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 11.718181818181819, "ppShare": 0.0011682242990654205, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.006060606060606061, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.402, "currentIXG": 0.03654545454545455, "priorTOI": 17.0974025974026, "priorPPTOI": 0.07056277056277056, "deploymentChange": -3.2170995670995683, "ppTOIChange": -0.0645021645021645, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021305", "date": "20260415", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2025021231", "date": "20260406", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020881", "date": "20260202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06261895311084649, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.07575000489554626, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07436607034654273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07295206496196378, "goalProbability": 0.07166820311060851, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12838618513552752, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2096977214144016, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.120248254460822, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.718181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0011682242990654205, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.006136643892192957, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.555879098479996, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.042944785276074, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.866666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01630539487138954, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1051249045243299, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.6902142443543715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021305", "date": "20260415", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2025021231", "date": "20260406", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020881", "date": "20260202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Metsa", "Louis Crevier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 163, "fitPct": 3.5041634841443283, "index": 103.50416348414433, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.572085889570545, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 93 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.98159509202454, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.71319018404908, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2269938650306749, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.52453987730061, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.98159509202454, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5041634841443283, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.0904170499842698, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7734.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.718181818181819, "projectedAttempts": 2.454545454545455, "onNet": 0.4020332404346305, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.006136643892192957, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.120208524992135, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.120208524992135, "baseline": 1.4675324675324675, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481806", "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.6666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021305", "date": "20260415", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020881", "date": "20260202", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.259138102008268, "adjustedSOG": 1.2343854300146955, "reductionPct": 1.9658425040186667, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.120208524992135, "afterPlayerForm": 1.078954071669514, "afterRecentDefense": 1.120208524992135, "afterRecentZones": 1.120208524992135, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.120208524992135, "adjusted": 1.078954071669514, "playerFactor": 0.9631725233273774, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1051249045243299, "newChartFactor": 1.1051249045243299, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7354157752103836, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2343854300146955, "adjustedSOG": 1.2096977214144016, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 244, "beforeSOG": 1.2096977214144016, "adjustedSOG": 1.2096977214144016 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.05636593792437214, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05629156488803614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05480680943728603, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.007029950166755061 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779976183933315, "modelSOG": 1.2096977214144016, "historyGames": 120, "seasonGames": { "2024": 32, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06578947368421052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06261895311084649, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.038179858400305, "btb": { "id": "8481806", "name": "Louis Crevier", "score": 41.038179858400305, "components": { "Goal model": 24.93573264781491, "SOG model": 37.53213367609254, "Unit attack": 51.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 5.912596401028278, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 60.946745562130175, "Goalie H2H": 52.77414533906221 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.559414149073786, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Metsa", "Louis Crevier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 257 } }, { "id": "8481848", "name": "Jacob Gaucher", "position": "C", "priorGP": 4, "priorSOG": 1, "priorTOI": 8.808333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.025, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.505632040050062, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.877777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 0.9877898672235583, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1001.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9554449544018597, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9467695520558368, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9045861914930582, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "inputs": null, "team": "PHI", "isHome": true, "opponent": "CBJ", "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.555555555555555, "currentGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 9.183333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.877777777777778, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.11333333333333333, "currentIXGTotal": 0.33999999999999997, "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.7324968875563906, "deploymentChange": 0.375, "ppTOIChange": -0.025, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.11799280482846966, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.08642936229090269, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08547030984009306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08279966457303344, "goalProbability": 0.08191959939658226, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08800651764511724, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": false, "projected": false, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": -1.7743482648054396, "index": 98.22565173519456, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.7743482648054396, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.603057460995372, "attemptProjection": 0.5239080654359581, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1598.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.877777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5191136394096887, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5634827632156652, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5634827632156652, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 4, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481848", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7380896579293992, "adjustedSOG": 0.7324968875563906, "reductionPct": 0.757735908222612, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5634827632156652, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5634827632156652, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5552102858628238, "afterRecentZones": 0.5624183296896312, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5541614792606511, "adjusted": 0.5541614792606511, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9853190232374951, "oldChartFactor": 0.9467695520558368, "newChartFactor": 0.9434273390236891, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9305477920626049, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7324968875563906, "adjustedSOG": 0.7324968875563906, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7324968875563906, "adjustedSOG": 0.7324968875563906 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.06150386073435296, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06036641060448074, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05965068470648476, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10702089900975278 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861215726303193, "modelSOG": 0.7324968875563906, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2024": 4, "2025": 4, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 9.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11799280482846966, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482055", "name": "Drew O'Connor", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.6585365853658536, "currentTOI": 15.907692307692308, "currentFiveTOI": 12.516666666666667, "ppShare": 0.13010842368640535, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.778, "currentIXG": 0.13676923076923078, "priorTOI": 14.589024390243901, "priorPPTOI": 0.36016260162601627, "deploymentChange": 1.3186679174484066, "ppTOIChange": 0.2398373983739837, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.75 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 9, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11165484270924554, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 266.0, "goalExpected": 0.13537242056369922, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13406531821884116, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12660941750090926, "goalProbability": 0.12546706019623663, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1142357304672631, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2124187117993204, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.424869404896036, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.516666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13010842368640535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6501099401016, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07692307692307693, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9709979127741588, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 468.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.292106266683615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.126410835214447, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.791869918699188, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09545459442571025, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8822400646366712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0812938780516892, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9539607808635591, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.786173277199202, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 5, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020769", "date": "20250123", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": 2.709795935056306, "index": 102.7097959350563, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.970414201183432, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.20710059171598, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.278106508875744, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.680473372781066, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.91715976331361, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.946745562130177, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.709795935056306, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9575022592586699, "attemptProjection": 1.0382564792549072, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9763.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.516666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.8461538461538465, "onNet": 0.4967619376565063, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 468.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6501099401016, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9209562923337117, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9978793692567886, "baseline": 1.6585365853658536, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482055", "goals": 2, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2621422557004145, "adjustedSOG": 1.237161950815633, "reductionPct": 1.9791988400641003, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9209562923337117, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9005140984900979, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8992835819747818, "afterRecentZones": 0.9209562923337116, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8992835819747818, "adjusted": 0.8793224508590757, "playerFactor": 0.9778032964063766, "defenseFactor": 0.9764671672919341, "oldChartFactor": 1.0812938780516892, "newChartFactor": 1.0812938780516892, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.36666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8559530071891986, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8885472191050638, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.237161950815633, "adjustedSOG": 1.2124187117993204, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 242, "beforeSOG": 1.2124187117993204, "adjustedSOG": 1.2124187117993204 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 266.0, "goalExpected": 0.13813134563350432, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14117592923813266, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1290157157500868, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2647751775618379 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286567243158387, "modelSOG": 1.2124187117993204, "historyGames": 179, "seasonGames": { "2024": 84, "2025": 82, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 266.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11165484270924554, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.52224297466805, "btb": { "id": "8482055", "name": "Drew O'Connor", "score": 42.52224297466805, "components": { "Goal model": 46.27249357326478, "SOG model": 38.04627249357326, "Unit attack": 13.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 40.87403598971722, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 69.9055330634278, "Goalie H2H": 54.82673267326733 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0104286902529886, "unitPlayers": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 9, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 240 } }, { "id": "8482062", "name": "Cole Smith", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.0952380952380953, "currentTOI": 13.353030303030302, "currentFiveTOI": 11.395454545454545, "ppShare": 0.0054487179487179484, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025757575757575757, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.9360000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.17600000000000002, "priorTOI": 13.281746031746032, "priorPPTOI": 0.032539682539682535, "deploymentChange": 0.07128427128427006, "ppTOIChange": -0.006782106782106778, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021064", "date": "20250315", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020528", "date": "20241221", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10305120551432444, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.11199673987860696, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11199673987860696, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10595282780208141, "goalProbability": 0.10595282780208141, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0868066930380458, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.743917032309533, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.395454545454545, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0054487179487179484, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024475475912975914, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9834434281842819, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.900532562749266, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.077513227513228, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00712598538685495, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560975609756097, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9367786355959304, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8956517686673285, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.141388174807198, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021064", "date": "20250315", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020528", "date": "20241221", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020192", "date": "20241104", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Jordan Greenway", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": -2.1073788134689835, "index": 97.89262118653102, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.298969072164947, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.422680412371133, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.206185567010316, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.948453608247423, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.474226804123711, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.649484536082475, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1073788134689835, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0679837476370855, "attemptProjection": 1.09438776883894, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7521.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.395454545454545, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.517751878684246, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.024475475912975914, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.990276667328922, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0811857582380129, "baseline": 1.0952380952380953, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482062", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0868066930380458, "adjustedSOG": 1.0868066930380458, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0868066930380458, "adjustedSOG": 1.0868066930380458, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 277, "beforeSOG": 1.0868066930380458, "adjustedSOG": 1.0868066930380458 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.10416308498440066, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10758845031264475, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09892166690820323, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.30812422772555775 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865852584095436, "modelSOG": 1.0868066930380458, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 63, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08609271523178808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10305120551432444, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.692408134567515, "btb": { "id": "8482062", "name": "Cole Smith", "score": 40.692408134567515, "components": { "Goal model": 37.275064267352185, "SOG model": 29.04884318766067, "Unit attack": 29.761904761904763, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 56.55526992287918, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.354904354904356, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.195097987569326, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Jordan Greenway", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 263 } }, { "id": "8482070", "name": "Mitchell Chaffee", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "currentTOI": 9.894444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 9.855555555555556, "ppShare": 0.008871989860583017, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Forward unit pending", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.211, "currentIXG": 0.07033333333333333, "priorTOI": 9.56060606060606, "priorPPTOI": 0.7712121212121211, "deploymentChange": 0.3338383838383834, "ppTOIChange": -0.7323232323232323, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020141", "date": "20241028", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13887473065329986, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 79.0, "goalExpected": 0.11483475603783613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11483475603783613, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1084865510495114, "goalProbability": 0.1084865510495114, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8268945365195385, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.058624577226607, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.855555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008871989860583017, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04429945846295656, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.992892932238579, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 789.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005615891580804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.032135295720853, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0379316556383422, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.581352833638026, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020141", "date": "20241028", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "projectedPosition": null, "positionStatus": "Incomplete reported units; roster position retained", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 1.0711765240284308, "index": 101.07117652402843, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.0711765240284308, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6919544370922283, "attemptProjection": 1.0297029227454102, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1774.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.855555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.483026874115983, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04429945846295656, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8608286799188192, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8608286799188192, "baseline": 0.8181818181818182, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 11, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482070", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8437699352240189, "adjustedSOG": 0.8437699352240189, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8437699352240189, "adjustedSOG": 0.8268945365195385, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 337, "beforeSOG": 0.8268945365195385, "adjustedSOG": 0.8268945365195385 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 79.0, "goalExpected": 0.11143056068869517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11143056068869517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10544649357395774, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858576786940673, "modelSOG": 0.8268945365195385, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 11, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 79.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1518987341772152, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13887473065329986, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.679316399110746, "btb": { "id": "8482070", "name": "Mitchell Chaffee", "score": 40.679316399110746, "components": { "Goal model": 37.789203084832906, "SOG model": 13.624678663239074, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 44.2159383033419, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.45765345765346, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 264 } }, { "id": "8482072", "name": "Jack Ahcan", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "currentTOI": 7.605555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 6.588888888888889, "ppShare": 0.23828125, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.016, "currentIXG": 0.005333333333333333, "priorTOI": 11.531818181818181, "priorPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "deploymentChange": -3.926262626262626, "ppTOIChange": 1.0045454545454544, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05258243240439086, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.023666129249910427, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023666129249910427, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023388282580689188, "goalProbability": 0.023388282580689188, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.4500767303403447, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.588888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23828125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2527817234848486, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 183.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 768.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.27892234548336, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.472727272727273, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0022127432684617434, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9457164208379987, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.893891446906967, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": -1.8094526387333758, "index": 98.19054736126662, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.81818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8094526387333758, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.4093466768920579, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1186.0, "expectedMinutes": 6.588888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666666, "onNet": 0.38377999064358753, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 183.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2527817234848486, "projectedAttempts": 0.4107481060606061, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.12426482479975678, "ppAdjusted": 0.08040851364627216, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.20467333844602895, "baseline": 0.8181818181818182, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 11, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482072", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4500767303403447, "adjustedSOG": 0.4500767303403447, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4500767303403447, "adjustedSOG": 0.4500767303403447, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.4500767303403447, "adjustedSOG": 0.4500767303403447 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.023572155576660345, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023572155576660345, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023296502477875073, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784067564482995, "modelSOG": 0.4500767303403447, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 11, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05258243240439086, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482077", "name": "Dylan Holloway", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 2.7457627118644066, "currentTOI": 17.901515151515152, "currentFiveTOI": 14.677272727272726, "ppShare": 0.5565939771547248, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4363636363636365, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.345, "currentIXG": 0.2131818181818182, "priorTOI": 18.253954802259887, "priorPPTOI": 2.2084745762711866, "deploymentChange": -0.35243965074473493, "ppTOIChange": 0.2278890600924499, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1379187608322608, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 363.0, "goalExpected": 0.32003668273138497, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3037581049062713, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27387759956782615, "goalProbability": 0.26196062703690565, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.19169725309205, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.320472434643023, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.6893775162589035, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.677272727272726, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5565939771547248, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0174140155448566, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.000585908181893, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1608.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.163728102500142, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.814274750575596, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.948305084745764, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5353983283855922, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9861132151694187, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8997758041550814, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0992718985350545, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8872808111670165, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1116543172318292, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.072401712728688, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.98960498960499, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Holloway", "Robert Thomas", "Jimmy Snuggerud" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": -3.3408065281639523, "index": 96.65919347183605, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 34.58083832335329, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.580838323353294, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.53892215568862, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.029940119760479, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.31137724550898, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9580838323353293, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": 3.3090632845018177, "index": 103.30906328450182, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 39.729729729729726, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.405405405405403, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.054054054054056, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.3408065281639523, "zonePPFit": 3.3090632845018177, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.043468118270843, "attemptProjection": 2.030423048053358, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9687.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.677272727272726, "projectedAttempts": 3.0909090909090904, "onNet": 0.5090521831735889, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1608.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0174140155448566, "projectedAttempts": 0.900720601655181, "onNet": 0.5530149363820764, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4555417651540066, "ppAdjusted": 0.4904947270990032, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0369455831621006, "baseline": 2.7457627118644066, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482077", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.320472434643023, "adjustedSOG": 2.320472434643023, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.320472434643023, "adjustedSOG": 2.320472434643023, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 48, "beforeSOG": 2.320472434643023, "adjustedSOG": 2.320472434643023 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 356.0, "goalExpected": 0.21573475706040593, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21204481483642565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1940509541807336, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.297939893897578 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856386265336747, "modelSOG": 2.320472434643023, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 59, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 363.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14049586776859505, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1379187608322608, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.67507465360886, "btb": { "id": "8482077", "name": "Dylan Holloway", "score": 67.67507465360886, "components": { "Goal model": 90.48843187660668, "SOG model": 87.91773778920309, "Unit attack": 59.523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.86206896551724, "Shot quality": 68.12339331619538, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 56.6732412886259, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6757709992445045, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Holloway", "Robert Thomas", "Jimmy Snuggerud" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 33 } }, { "id": "8482079", "name": "Marco Rossi", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.32, "currentTOI": 16.036363636363635, "currentFiveTOI": 12.609090909090908, "ppShare": 0.5315985130111525, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.807, "currentIXG": 0.16427272727272726, "priorTOI": 17.475, "priorPPTOI": 2.29, "deploymentChange": -1.4386363636363662, "ppTOIChange": 0.31000000000000005, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021298", "date": "20250415", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020424", "date": "20241206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020222", "date": "20241108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16305198472069865, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 218.0, "goalExpected": 0.21626441178793693, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21417624849307773, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1944777158748497, "goalProbability": 0.19279389637475824, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16838195000914435, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3263525259038642, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.191059841384282, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.293706293706293, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.609090909090908, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5315985130111525, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.656226765799257, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.004511900267846, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1716.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3228.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.181892984196898, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.764192139737991, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.773666666666665, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6069231515099279, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0157202178719733, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0716360161703964, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0884823678240485, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.719581623196081, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.513872135102533, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021298", "date": "20250415", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020424", "date": "20241206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020222", "date": "20241108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arshdeep Bains", "Marco Rossi", "Liam Ohgren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": 2.387867205679882, "index": 102.38786720567988, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.43343653250774, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.634674922600622, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.027863777089784, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.2136222910216725, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.1609907120743035, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": -16.490517226179122, "index": 83.50948277382088, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.49999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.387867205679882, "zonePPFit": -16.490517226179122, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5151758087027414, "attemptProjection": 1.395216720758025, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8322.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.609090909090908, "projectedAttempts": 1.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.5359003269816215, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1716.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.656226765799257, "projectedAttempts": 0.6501254321886293, "onNet": 0.5091966415106668, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1043980289238349, "ppAdjusted": 0.25988914489745757, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4551962647303833, "baseline": 1.32, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482079", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.40111775883823, "adjustedSOG": 1.3534209447998615, "reductionPct": 3.404197380091545, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1043980289238349, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0514197952420152, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0765454791668407, "afterRecentZones": 1.1043980289238349, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0765454791668407, "adjusted": 1.0249033388598874, "playerFactor": 0.9520297643654403, "defenseFactor": 0.9747803336953302, "oldChartFactor": 1.0716360161703964, "newChartFactor": 1.0716360161703964, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6826907301066448, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8805582830691543, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.25988914489745757, "afterPlayerForm": 0.25988914489745757, "afterRecentDefense": 0.25988914489745757, "afterRecentZones": 0.25988914489745757, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.25988914489745757, "adjusted": 0.25988914489745757, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.02785265049416, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3534209447998615, "adjustedSOG": 1.3263525259038642, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 213, "beforeSOG": 1.3263525259038642, "adjustedSOG": 1.3263525259038642 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 218.0, "goalExpected": 0.22633529023908142, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23132399653634025, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.202549320592811, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.39683405532908445 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850531141182175, "modelSOG": 1.3263525259038642, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 50, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 218.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17889908256880735, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16305198472069865, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.2198347312571, "btb": { "id": "8482079", "name": "Marco Rossi", "score": 52.2198347312571, "components": { "Goal model": 69.66580976863753, "SOG model": 45.501285347043705, "Unit attack": 10.714285714285714, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.69922879177378, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 63.62773029439696, "Goalie H2H": 51.26097515411919 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9500315991894428, "unitPlayers": [ "Arshdeep Bains", "Marco Rossi", "Liam Ohgren" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 151 } }, { "id": "8482087", "name": "Kaiden Guhle", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 1.0256410256410255, "currentTOI": 22.314285714285713, "currentFiveTOI": 18.22142857142857, "ppShare": 0.029987760097919217, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 39, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.11666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.557, "currentIXG": 0.07957142857142858, "priorTOI": 19.46282051282051, "priorPPTOI": 0.017094017094017092, "deploymentChange": 2.851465201465203, "ppTOIChange": 0.09957264957264958, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07138405374735995, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 121.0, "goalExpected": 0.09475868438694406, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0993277747036089, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09040759316460154, "goalProbability": 0.09455412287463248, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4146529710030947, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.32744891068124, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.704037632301058, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.22142857142857, "Current_PP_Share": 0.029987760097919217, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12862931642001407, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1634.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.62136605975254, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.993162393162393, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0035979706567941866, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1653734705582257, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.064082525789309, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Mike Matheson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 5.512449018607526, "index": 105.51244901860753, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 72.78195488721805, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.015037593984962, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.443609022556391, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.458646616541353, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.1578947368421053, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.512449018607526, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6428571428571426, "attemptProjection": 1.5047538388774087, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7653.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.22142857142857, "projectedAttempts": 3.571428571428571, "onNet": 0.39942079351288734, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 49.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.12862931642001407, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5738054908672756, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5738054908672756, "baseline": 1.0256410256410255, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 39, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482087", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3545397047767755, "adjustedSOG": 1.3545397047767755, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5738054908672756, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5738054908672756, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5738054908672756, "afterRecentZones": 1.5738054908672756, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5738054908672756, "adjusted": 1.5738054908672756, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1653734705582257, "newChartFactor": 1.1653734705582257, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 96.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0094203401596669, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3545397047767755, "adjustedSOG": 1.32744891068124, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 211, "beforeSOG": 1.32744891068124, "adjustedSOG": 1.32744891068124 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.09105112408232277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09105112408232277, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08702896510020437, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775875878166548, "modelSOG": 1.32744891068124, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 39, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 121.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08264462809917356, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07138405374735995, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.5455834849754, "btb": { "id": "8482087", "name": "Kaiden Guhle", "score": 40.5455834849754, "components": { "Goal model": 31.362467866323907, "SOG model": 46.01542416452442, "Unit attack": 40.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 27.506426735218508, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.416345865238243, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Mike Matheson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 266 } }, { "id": "8482089", "name": "Jake Neighbours", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.2463768115942029, "currentTOI": 14.924242424242424, "currentFiveTOI": 11.922727272727274, "ppShare": 0.46417445482866043, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0318181818181817, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.293, "currentIXG": 0.20845454545454548, "priorTOI": 15.230193236714978, "priorPPTOI": 2.0347826086956524, "deploymentChange": -0.3059508124725543, "ppTOIChange": -0.0029644268774706717, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16211826952185296, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 226.0, "goalExpected": 0.23369386352769236, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2218070894484847, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2083958823029619, "goalProbability": 0.19893011573690683, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9465766566055078, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4415023317047637, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.117422798322531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 24.161073825503355, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.922727272727274, "Current_PP_Share": 0.46417445482866043, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.516388180874162, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.000585908181893, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1341.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.87879366291277, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.273504273504273, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.654589371980675, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.493290354812739, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9861132151694187, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9272842013590705, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9777699806746983, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9144072051779998, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9887837774487139, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.080971659919029, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.22999157540017, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Neighbours", "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Pavel Buchnevich" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": -2.4238599546976474, "index": 97.57614004530235, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.528301886792452, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.18867924528302, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.22641509433962, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.79245283018868, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7547169811320755, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": -0.7410006441767223, "index": 99.25899935582328, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.725490196078432, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 70.58823529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.4238599546976474, "zonePPFit": -0.7410006441767223, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.75009650848789, "attemptProjection": 1.3930755150690524, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7869.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.922727272727274, "projectedAttempts": 1.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.5038863192027084, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 1341.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.516388180874162, "projectedAttempts": 1.125900752068976, "onNet": 0.6179144385026738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7351661290721803, "ppAdjusted": 0.836419882706291, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.571586011778471, "baseline": 1.2463768115942029, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482089", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4415023317047637, "adjustedSOG": 1.4415023317047637, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4415023317047637, "adjustedSOG": 1.4415023317047637, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 179, "beforeSOG": 1.4415023317047637, "adjustedSOG": 1.4415023317047637 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.22492135611551342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22107428566514017, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20142098035393372, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30781067993055355 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285055586412406, "modelSOG": 1.4415023317047637, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 226.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17699115044247787, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16211826952185296, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.135294471025944, "btb": { "id": "8482089", "name": "Jake Neighbours", "score": 60.135294471025944, "components": { "Goal model": 74.55012853470437, "SOG model": 54.24164524421594, "Unit attack": 38.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.86206896551724, "Shot quality": 66.83804627249357, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 54.192104192104196, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.279482831447325, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Neighbours", "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Pavel Buchnevich" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 81 } }, { "id": "8482092", "name": "Ridly Greig", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.6753246753246753, "currentTOI": 17.09, "currentFiveTOI": 12.765, "ppShare": 0.179122468659595, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2383333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.311, "currentIXG": 0.2311, "priorTOI": 16.693722943722946, "priorPPTOI": 0.9634199134199135, "deploymentChange": 0.3962770562770537, "ppTOIChange": 0.2749134199134198, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10982428085908431, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 263.0, "goalExpected": 0.15937418691853672, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1625400122782396, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14732276140089676, "goalProbability": 0.15001792017449078, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2695158773594025, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4511744185516675, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.110458284371328, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.765, "Current_PP_Share": 0.179122468659595, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8534630658169111, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9768676705634148, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 743.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4148.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.3650484153475, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.470456077286003, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.099134199134198, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19499378713813112, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7943311856896491, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9134808635430964, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.529953917050691, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ridly Greig", "Shane Pinto", "Michael Amadio" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": -6.855627143678362, "index": 93.14437285632164, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.227272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.931818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.40909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.9772727272727275, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 12.862920595542377, "index": 112.86292059554238, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 65.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.855627143678362, "zonePPFit": 12.862920595542377, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3875251226060255, "attemptProjection": 1.5106552604835557, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7659.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.765, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5135069718495133, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 743.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8534630658169111, "projectedAttempts": 0.20676090423559085, "onNet": 0.49102280313411334, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.198766371133581, "ppAdjusted": 0.050323820411209697, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4490901915447907, "baseline": 1.6753246753246753, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482092", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5395839850567445, "adjustedSOG": 1.4807902230119057, "reductionPct": 3.8188083674221884, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.198766371133581, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1936552502407447, "afterRecentDefense": 1.106045669154779, "afterRecentZones": 1.1987663711335808, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.106045669154779, "adjusted": 1.1013298769335622, "playerFactor": 0.9957363494539782, "defenseFactor": 0.914945757630518, "oldChartFactor": 0.7943311856896491, "newChartFactor": 0.7943311856896491, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.973284457478006, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6086721404650821, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.050323820411209697, "afterPlayerForm": 0.050323820411209697, "afterRecentDefense": 0.04977071120316382, "afterRecentZones": 0.050323820411209697, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.04977071120316382, "adjusted": 0.04977071120316382, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.474206349206349, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4807902230119057, "adjustedSOG": 1.4511744185516675, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 177, "beforeSOG": 1.4511744185516675, "adjustedSOG": 1.4511744185516675 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.15402489018257026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1490171187209084, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.142749316380111, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4303682444088991 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866213951847605, "modelSOG": 1.4511744185516675, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 263.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10266159695817491, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10982428085908431, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.81958308122731, "btb": { "id": "8482092", "name": "Ridly Greig", "score": 50.81958308122731, "components": { "Goal model": 54.24164524421594, "SOG model": 54.75578406169666, "Unit attack": 61.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 72.23650385604113, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 45.562130177514796, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.691548829478119, "unitPlayers": [ "Ridly Greig", "Shane Pinto", "Michael Amadio" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 164 } }, { "id": "8482093", "name": "Seth Jarvis", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 3.1549295774647885, "currentTOI": 15.766666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.833333333333334, "ppShare": 0.20918367346938777, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.681, "currentIXG": 0.3405, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1457904178481709, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 434.0, "goalExpected": 0.36061399420214635, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34422288897334014, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3027519116669538, "goalProbability": 0.2912290667831262, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1522844883827599, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.473509573020753, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.012048192771084, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.833333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20918367346938777, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.07844687554509, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 41.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 196.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9267676767676768, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0107647735532312, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9367441209445351, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Hall", "Jordan Martinook", "Seth Jarvis" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 214, "fitPct": 0.3588257851077117, "index": 100.35882578510771, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.057409879839788, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.245660881174903, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.722296395193595, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 78 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.496662216288385, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.73030707610147, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7476635514018692, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.3588257851077117, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.810232362833605, "attemptProjection": 1.9211157671560448, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1660.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.833333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.5, "onNet": 0.5528600506791842, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 41.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.07844687554509, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.365674064994825, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.365674064994825, "baseline": 3.1549295774647885, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482093", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.6813762699828105, "adjustedSOG": 2.6596877129255407, "reductionPct": 0.8088591407355405, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.365674064994825, "afterPlayerForm": 2.365674064994825, "afterRecentDefense": 2.329526469899375, "afterRecentZones": 2.365674064994825, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.329526469899375, "adjusted": 2.329526469899375, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847199596806971, "oldChartFactor": 1.0107647735532312, "newChartFactor": 1.0107647735532312, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 27.666666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279949742198932, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.6833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.6596877129255407, "adjustedSOG": 2.6596877129255407, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 29, "beforeSOG": 2.6596877129255407, "adjustedSOG": 2.473509573020753 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852083130923256, "modelSOG": 2.473509573020753, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 71, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 65.0, "historyShots": 434.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1497695852534562, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1457904178481709, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.18456973191778, "btb": { "id": "8482093", "name": "Seth Jarvis", "score": 70.18456973191778, "components": { "Goal model": 95.11568123393316, "SOG model": 91.77377892030849, "Unit attack": 86.9047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 75.06426735218508, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 42.467948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 43.24001365653807 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.379271589784146, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Hall", "Jordan Martinook", "Seth Jarvis" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 15 } }, { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.59375, "currentTOI": 14.139393939393939, "currentFiveTOI": 12.501515151515152, "ppShare": 0.030261348005502064, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.615, "currentIXG": 0.05590909090909091, "priorTOI": 12.428645833333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.1609375, "deploymentChange": 1.7107481060606062, "ppTOIChange": -0.02760416666666668, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.044857187213612794, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 29.0, "goalExpected": 0.023533154289222844, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02450173107755156, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023258409041185292, "goalProbability": 0.024204000261604765, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09455912204194734, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5246239399085917, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1815537510604774, "Current_PP_SOG60": 40.90909090909091, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.501515151515152, "Current_PP_Share": 0.030261348005502064, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12747754499817773, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 88.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2908.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.87283481199831, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.0953125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030502426903963934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8677106702431007, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1815537510604774, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 40.90909090909091, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -4.409644325229976, "index": 95.59035567477002, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.400000000000006, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.200000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.409644325229976, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4775550474387915, "attemptProjection": 0.5152134556516562, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 8251.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.501515151515152, "projectedAttempts": 1.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.38394706943794693, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 88.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.12747754499817773, "projectedAttempts": 0.08691650795330301, "onNet": 0.4335511982570806, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.42959167802409004, "ppAdjusted": 0.06679257352113381, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.49638425154522386, "baseline": 0.59375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482094", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5353305509271343, "adjustedSOG": 0.5353305509271343, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5353305509271343, "adjustedSOG": 0.5246239399085917, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5246239399085917, "adjustedSOG": 0.5246239399085917 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.02744428317962822, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02744428317962822, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027071110452507277, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057865771505560507, "modelSOG": 0.5246239399085917, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 32, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 29.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.044857187213612794, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.88312496795787, "btb": { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "score": 36.88312496795787, "components": { "Goal model": 13.624678663239074, "SOG model": 33.933161953727506, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 55.526992287917736, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.058879392212724, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 297 } }, { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 0.59375, "currentTOI": 9.566666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 9.566666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Extra defenseman", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.047, "currentIXG": 0.047, "priorTOI": 12.428645833333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.1609375, "deploymentChange": -2.861979166666666, "ppTOIChange": -0.1609375, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020708", "date": "20260110", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020228", "date": "20251107", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.044857187213612794, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 29.0, "goalExpected": 0.05153875625165972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05153875625165972, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05023316015377005, "goalProbability": 0.05023316015377005, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1489520287179147, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.543554006968641, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.566666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 416.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.87283481199831, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.0953125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030502426903963934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9685378534850199, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9154622719448354, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1815537510604774, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 40.90909090909091, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020708", "date": "20260110", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020228", "date": "20251107", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Daemon Hunt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -1.0487382171660045, "index": 98.951261782834, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.400000000000006, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.200000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0487382171660045, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8309245438896709, "attemptProjection": 1.207248885170045, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 574.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.566666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 3.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4142747078012557, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5190867145298579, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5190867145298579, "baseline": 0.59375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482094", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1489520287179147, "adjustedSOG": 1.1489520287179147, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1489520287179147, "adjustedSOG": 1.1489520287179147, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 258, "beforeSOG": 1.1489520287179147, "adjustedSOG": 1.1489520287179147 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.02744428317962822, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02744428317962822, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027071110452507277, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057865771505560507, "modelSOG": 1.1489520287179147, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 32, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 29.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.044857187213612794, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.88312496795787, "btb": { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "score": 36.88312496795787, "components": { "Goal model": 13.624678663239074, "SOG model": 33.933161953727506, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 55.526992287917736, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.058879392212724, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 297 } }, { "id": "8482095", "name": "Tyler Kleven", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "currentTOI": 20.96527777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 17.158333333333335, "ppShare": 0.0264914925694594, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1708333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.359, "currentIXG": 0.11325, "priorTOI": 17.348809523809525, "priorPPTOI": 0.10857142857142857, "deploymentChange": 3.6164682539682538, "ppTOIChange": 0.06226190476190474, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04855210647882159, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.0594427671182832, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06062354440243753, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05771053801070244, "goalProbability": 0.058822515374515084, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11119773638126468, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2243087155077836, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7882467217095677, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.158333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0264914925694594, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1262237542592378, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.469204388510421, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 23.68421052631579, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.343095238095238, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021974586301614592, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7866288182644405, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4456521739130435, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Kleven", "Jordan Spence" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": -7.11237272451865, "index": 92.88762727548135, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 77 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.316804407713499, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.6611570247933884, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.914600550964185, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9917355371900827, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6611570247933884, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.11237272451865, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1708333333333334, "attemptProjection": 1.2791963112509646, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 12354.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.158333333333335, "projectedAttempts": 2.7500000000000004, "onNet": 0.39706698208995844, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 123.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1262237542592378, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9750148222921489, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2250148222921489, "baseline": 1.2857142857142858, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482095", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2492946076610036, "adjustedSOG": 1.2492946076610036, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9750148222921489, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9750148222921489, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9750148222921489, "afterRecentZones": 0.9750148222921489, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9750148222921489, "adjusted": 0.9750148222921489, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7866288182644405, "newChartFactor": 0.7728156009978627, "playerRecentAttempts": 21.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 88.76666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4760864370327382, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2492946076610036, "adjustedSOG": 1.2243087155077836, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 239, "beforeSOG": 1.2243087155077836, "adjustedSOG": 1.2243087155077836 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.04980887381066558, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048189450764748065, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0485887532692569, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15419855255571005 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057887982399853335, "modelSOG": 1.2243087155077836, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 70, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04855210647882159, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.00844423531611, "btb": { "id": "8482095", "name": "Tyler Kleven", "score": 39.00844423531611, "components": { "Goal model": 15.424164524421593, "SOG model": 38.81748071979435, "Unit attack": 73.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 29.04884318766067, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 44.99389499389499, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.016786583981971, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Kleven", "Jordan Spence" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 280 } }, { "id": "8482097", "name": "Jack Quinn", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.8181818181818183, "priorSOG": 2.3292682926829267, "currentTOI": 19.481818181818184, "currentFiveTOI": 14.692424242424243, "ppShare": 0.6980140186915887, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.6212121212121215, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.0649999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.3695454545454545, "priorTOI": 15.65650406504065, "priorPPTOI": 2.158739837398374, "deploymentChange": 3.825314116777534, "ppTOIChange": 1.4624722838137476, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12104083014458356, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 345.0, "goalExpected": 0.30499734167608333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29942511288109114, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2628746660930721, "goalProbability": 0.25875577002386413, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.41188960692079557, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.519788911822261, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.42497679694751, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.556485355648535, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.692424242424243, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6980140186915887, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.666644725585292, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9870699475962634, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2390.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.30056379400199, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.541191978156482, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.870121951219511, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4504049870658581, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0013290802764487, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1016169067688621, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.195636166140267, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.103081044071851, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.609101081685938, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.203319502074688, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Doan", "Noah Ostlund", "Jack Quinn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 224, "fitPct": 3.387230225628741, "index": 103.38723022562874, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.62987012987013, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.26948051948052, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.941558441558445, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.79220779220779, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.301948051948052, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.0649350649350655, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": 6.5212055380089, "index": 106.5212055380089, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7142857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.387230225628741, "zonePPFit": 6.5212055380089, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.1401340443935952, "attemptProjection": 3.040110003479973, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9697.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.692424242424243, "projectedAttempts": 3.545454545454546, "onNet": 0.5061742129269107, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2390.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.666644725585292, "projectedAttempts": 1.3807448757434153, "onNet": 0.5301291092546382, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9943210766317192, "ppAdjusted": 0.9139827654868833, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.090122023936784, "baseline": 2.3292682926829267, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482097", "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.6666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.785780531435241, "adjustedSOG": 2.7647453498159544, "reductionPct": 0.7550911273132233, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9943210766317192, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9717762387124431, "afterRecentDefense": 1.994321076631719, "afterRecentZones": 1.9913389407950985, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9913389407950985, "adjusted": 1.9688278144831848, "playerFactor": 0.9886954822954823, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1016169067688621, "newChartFactor": 1.0983409114093974, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9305862947968211, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1324694795459413, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9139827654868833, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9139827654868833, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9078613250468396, "afterRecentZones": 0.9105156106185548, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9044173916032735, "adjusted": 0.9044173916032735, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.195636166140267, "newChartFactor": 1.1869337519641718, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1940049958368026, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.7647453498159544, "adjustedSOG": 2.709450442819635, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 27, "beforeSOG": 2.709450442819635, "adjustedSOG": 2.519788911822261 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 342.0, "goalExpected": 0.3684797208963082, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3679935237942912, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3082147617595494, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.03364257560372064 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863169414339676, "modelSOG": 2.519788911822261, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 345.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11884057971014493, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12104083014458356, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.08369979400597, "btb": { "id": "8482097", "name": "Jack Quinn", "score": 68.08369979400597, "components": { "Goal model": 87.91773778920309, "SOG model": 92.2879177377892, "Unit attack": 65.47619047619048, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 24.137931034482758, "Shot quality": 92.2879177377892, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 56.14570614570614, "Goalie H2H": 52.662058658696054 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.833124614857099, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Doan", "Noah Ostlund", "Jack Quinn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 27 } }, { "id": "8482105", "name": "Jake Sanderson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.1940298507462686, "currentTOI": 19.104166666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 13.033333333333333, "ppShare": 0.42364864864864865, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6125, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.334, "currentIXG": 0.3335, "priorTOI": 24.839303482587066, "priorPPTOI": 3.1330845771144276, "deploymentChange": -5.735136815920399, "ppTOIChange": -0.5205845771144277, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 26.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07059888045395292, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 350.0, "goalExpected": 0.11535648634275479, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11764793953810054, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10895155931807052, "goalProbability": 0.11099101756073382, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20394582426633, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.633970476599758, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.603580562659847, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.966507177033492, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.033333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42364864864864865, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.018554552148302, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 627.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1480.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.634861597882841, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.004763795156808, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.389303482587064, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6341285026452771, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 38.095238095238095, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 26.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Sanderson", "Artem Zub" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 154, "fitPct": -8.814899161309626, "index": 91.18510083869037, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 33.038961038961034, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5584415584415585, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.116883116883118, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.2077922077922, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2987012987012987, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7792207792207793, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": -17.44004695004628, "index": 82.55995304995372, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 91.0344827586207, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.6896551724137931, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.4482758620689653, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.7586206896551726, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6896551724137931, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.814899161309626, "zonePPFit": -17.44004695004628, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.506754591129591, "attemptProjection": 1.1303997058500577, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3128.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.033333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.42029051778011495, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 627.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.018554552148302, "projectedAttempts": 0.965815575190575, "onNet": 0.45656565656565656, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7716246125223098, "ppAdjusted": 0.5469525359675145, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3185771484898243, "baseline": 2.1940298507462686, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482105", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.668758229392402, "adjustedSOG": 1.667316812856896, "reductionPct": 0.08637659489060256, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7716246125223098, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7716246125223098, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7716246125223098, "afterRecentZones": 0.7716246125223098, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7716246125223098, "adjusted": 0.7716246125223098, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.13333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5469525359675145, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5469525359675145, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5445501750750046, "afterRecentZones": 0.5469525359675145, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5445501750750046, "adjusted": 0.5445501750750046, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.667316812856896, "adjustedSOG": 1.633970476599758, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 139, "beforeSOG": 1.633970476599758, "adjustedSOG": 1.633970476599758 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 346.0, "goalExpected": 0.08260129703024972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07991570240022576, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07928183288316608, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24759990420785416 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769496204278813, "modelSOG": 1.633970476599758, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 67, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 350.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07428571428571429, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07059888045395292, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.72540169815437, "btb": { "id": "8482105", "name": "Jake Sanderson", "score": 56.72540169815437, "components": { "Goal model": 38.04627249357326, "SOG model": 64.52442159383034, "Unit attack": 65.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.62068965517241, "Shot quality": 80.46272493573265, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 56.227106227106226, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8471462478305565, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Sanderson", "Artem Zub" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 106 } }, { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 1.9268292682926829, "currentTOI": 15.1, "currentFiveTOI": 12.473333333333333, "ppShare": 0.130879345603272, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.64, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.18, "currentIXG": 0.21800000000000003, "priorTOI": 18.227032520325203, "priorPPTOI": 1.5235772357723578, "deploymentChange": -3.127032520325203, "ppTOIChange": -0.8835772357723578, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1226062343510729, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.22688882461032683, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22522169308471354, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2029906148062107, "goalProbability": 0.2016607871431363, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13298276630744066, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8505488388188263, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.696419027258151, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.75, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.473333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.130879345603272, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7232075354774742, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 384.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2934.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": -9.425719763336545, "index": 90.57428023666345, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.78735632183908, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.367816091954023, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.0919540229885, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.13793103448276, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.275862068965516, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.3390804597701145, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -17.758524627286604, "index": 82.2414753727134, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 54.46808510638298, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.87234042553192, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5531914893617023, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.425719763336545, "zonePPFit": -17.758524627286604, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.952102001611204, "attemptProjection": 1.7731761128380974, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7484.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.473333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.7, "onNet": 0.5331104539025331, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 384.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7232075354774742, "projectedAttempts": 0.339003532255066, "onNet": 0.518082869840594, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2938301552504923, "ppAdjusted": 0.16880890197415838, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8626390572246507, "baseline": 1.9268292682926829, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482110", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8883151416518635, "adjustedSOG": 1.8883151416518635, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8883151416518635, "adjustedSOG": 1.8505488388188263, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.8505488388188263, "adjustedSOG": 1.8505488388188263 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862437130503837, "modelSOG": 1.8505488388188263, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 323.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12074303405572756, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1226062343510729, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.22461440057906, "btb": { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "score": 48.22461440057906, "components": { "Goal model": 63.49614395886889, "SOG model": 62.46786632390746, "Unit attack": 46.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 60.411311053984576, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 55.60897435897436, "Goalie H2H": 47.24972497249725 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4131903584628223, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 194 } }, { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.9268292682926829, "currentTOI": 15.366666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.666666666666666, "ppShare": 0.21195652173913043, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.127, "currentIXG": 0.127, "priorTOI": 18.227032520325203, "priorPPTOI": 1.5235772357723578, "deploymentChange": -2.8603658536585357, "ppTOIChange": -0.22357723577235777, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020961", "date": "20260303", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020323", "date": "20251120", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020064", "date": "20251016", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020695", "date": "20250114", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020260", "date": "20241114", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1226062343510729, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.19152370672875368, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19550618191857425, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17429994977266708, "goalProbability": 0.1775817405742462, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.32817908015791153, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5621041437447727, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.473684210526315, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.666666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21195652173913043, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1450469367588934, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9841867136275031, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 78.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 368.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8770600744284955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7607846271219039, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8795638085978141, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8533214380964236 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020961", "date": "20260303", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020323", "date": "20251120", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020064", "date": "20251016", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020695", "date": "20250114", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020260", "date": "20241114", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020246", "date": "20241112", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": -7.973845762603204, "index": 92.0261542373968, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.78735632183908, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.367816091954023, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.0919540229885, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.13793103448276, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.275862068965516, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.3390804597701145, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -4.014539713406194, "index": 95.9854602865938, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 54.46808510638298, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.87234042553192, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5531914893617023, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.973845762603204, "zonePPFit": -4.014539713406194, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6999999999999997, "attemptProjection": 0.9379081214256648, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 760.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.666666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5201827875095202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 78.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1450469367588934, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3189540607128323, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3189540607128323, "baseline": 1.9268292682926829, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482110", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020436", "date": "20251205", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5621041437447727, "adjustedSOG": 1.5621041437447727, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5621041437447727, "adjustedSOG": 1.5621041437447727, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 147, "beforeSOG": 1.5621041437447727, "adjustedSOG": 1.5621041437447727 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862437130503837, "modelSOG": 1.5621041437447727, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 323.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12074303405572756, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1226062343510729, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.22461440057906, "btb": { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "score": 48.22461440057906, "components": { "Goal model": 63.49614395886889, "SOG model": 62.46786632390746, "Unit attack": 46.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 60.411311053984576, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 55.60897435897436, "Goalie H2H": 47.24972497249725 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4131903584628223, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 194 } }, { "id": "8482111", "name": "Justin Barron", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 0.5961538461538461, "currentTOI": 16.875, "currentFiveTOI": 15.975, "ppShare": 0.01768172888015717, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.075, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.861, "currentIXG": 0.107625, "priorTOI": 14.250320512820512, "priorPPTOI": 0.24423076923076922, "deploymentChange": 2.6246794871794883, "ppTOIChange": -0.16923076923076924, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021161", "date": "20260328", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020062", "date": "20251016", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021228", "date": "20250406", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05863460576825783, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.0636616551349637, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06042352255983055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.061677577598129814, "goalProbability": 0.058634240490903246, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3043337107226568, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0857351951264809, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.572769953051643, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.975, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01768172888015717, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09585640292909448, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 36.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2036.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.670814885724542, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.392628205128204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.060483589939768094, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9447964268867932, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9051621096591159, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.8246445497630335, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021161", "date": "20260328", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020062", "date": "20251016", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021228", "date": "20250406", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Justin Barron", "Adam Jiříček" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -1.84011910377356, "index": 98.15988089622644, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 37.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.931972789115646, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.013605442176871, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.482993197278912, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.612244897959183, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.84011910377356, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5840336919034528, "attemptProjection": 1.2402118303130223, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7668.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.975, "projectedAttempts": 2.875, "onNet": 0.4651583494995418, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 36.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09585640292909448, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4121227611082374, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4121227611082374, "baseline": 0.5961538461538461, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482111", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0857351951264809, "adjustedSOG": 1.0857351951264809, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0857351951264809, "adjustedSOG": 1.0857351951264809, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 281, "beforeSOG": 1.0857351951264809, "adjustedSOG": 1.0857351951264809 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.07869803864885001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07735198194611151, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07568100907928665, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12450235213403854 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782344057480207, "modelSOG": 1.0857351951264809, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 52, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.059322033898305086, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05863460576825783, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.067028310991375, "btb": { "id": "8482111", "name": "Justin Barron", "score": 36.067028310991375, "components": { "Goal model": 17.223650385604113, "SOG model": 28.020565552699228, "Unit attack": 53.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 35.732647814910024, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 40.03944773175542, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.611018968809229, "unitPlayers": [ "Justin Barron", "Adam Jiříček" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 304 } }, { "id": "8482113", "name": "Anton Lundell", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.15625, "currentTOI": 17.806944444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 11.615277777777777, "ppShare": 0.38227146814404434, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6833333333333336, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.0660000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.2555, "priorTOI": 19.152083333333334, "priorPPTOI": 2.508072916666667, "deploymentChange": -1.34513888888889, "ppTOIChange": 0.1752604166666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11470757002949336, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.2592871588674979, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2608395035237734, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22839858096220209, "goalProbability": 0.22959544309020838, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1196862128006293, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.2604188965107586, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.748415640320459, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.770186335403725, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.615277777777777, "Current_PP_Share": 0.38227146814404434, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.087385629144632, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0039321334952203, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1932.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 5054.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.430818220651625, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.475859204651646, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.411979166666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49059660132849753, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510165561128189, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1385601999397252, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8645153678179038, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9074862557665003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.829090443904311, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.485159201295197, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell", "Lars Eller" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 150, "fitPct": 4.618673331324175, "index": 104.61867333132417, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.933333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.53333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.166666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.533333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -4.516154406069873, "index": 95.48384559393013, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.740259740259741, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.896103896103895, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.48051948051948, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.618673331324175, "zonePPFit": -4.516154406069873, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5044554012546385, "attemptProjection": 2.3090442467411396, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8363.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.615277777777777, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5306466205940671, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 1932.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.087385629144632, "projectedAttempts": 0.8427333285366528, "onNet": 0.5559398185096509, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6306895530009133, "ppAdjusted": 0.5260602709969756, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.406749823997889, "baseline": 2.15625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482113", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3065498943987333, "adjustedSOG": 2.3065498943987333, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3065498943987333, "adjustedSOG": 2.2604188965107586, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 55, "beforeSOG": 2.2604188965107586, "adjustedSOG": 2.2604188965107586 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 324.0, "goalExpected": 0.2473588729863784, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2473588729863784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2191395864666248, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865424832564173, "modelSOG": 2.2604188965107586, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 64, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 326.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11042944785276074, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11470757002949336, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.652344419158226, "btb": { "id": "8482113", "name": "Anton Lundell", "score": 61.652344419158226, "components": { "Goal model": 81.49100257069409, "SOG model": 86.11825192802057, "Unit attack": 17.857142857142858, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 96.55172413793103, "Shot quality": 77.89203084832904, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 40.95989480604865, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.075866808088353, "unitPlayers": [ "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell", "Lars Eller" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 71 } }, { "id": "8482116", "name": "Tim Stützle", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.425, "currentTOI": 21.88611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 13.556944444444445, "ppShare": 0.6517337928063752, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.2027777777777775, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.6350000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.30291666666666667, "priorTOI": 20.267500000000002, "priorPPTOI": 3.327708333333333, "deploymentChange": 1.6186111111111074, "ppTOIChange": 0.8750694444444447, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16426056959734447, "goalHistoryGoals": 66.0, "goalHistoryShots": 380.0, "goalExpected": 0.3334528164404282, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34007655773104917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28355429769905577, "goalProbability": 0.2882841666725088, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4729868973453011, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0300235002096265, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.688146706280094, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.948446794448117, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.556944444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6517337928063752, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1053095966540942, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.75, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9768676705634148, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3026.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.053508692910548, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.015213172228135, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.876249999999999, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6735198653974311, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7888128286610854, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1903807262072514, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7180067950169877, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.547835576573299, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Fabian Zetterlund", "Tim Stützle", "Claude Giroux" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": -7.039572377963822, "index": 92.96042762203618, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.836010143702452, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.422654268808113, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.75570583262891, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.019442096365173, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.96618765849535, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": 6.346024206908382, "index": 106.34602420690838, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.4444444444444455, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.37037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.648148148148145, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.185185185185186, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.35185185185185, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.039572377963822, "zonePPFit": 6.346024206908382, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8123755708897322, "attemptProjection": 1.908863708332408, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 9761.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.556944444444445, "projectedAttempts": 1.5833333333333335, "onNet": 0.5146814911407753, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3026.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1053095966540942, "projectedAttempts": 0.8004433196927275, "onNet": 0.4924477550175874, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7382121500538785, "ppAdjusted": 0.3724074895571915, "other": 0.75 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8606196396110701, "baseline": 2.425, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482116", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.086371783766642, "adjustedSOG": 2.0714525512343127, "reductionPct": 0.715080248324429, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7382121500538785, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7358785603652288, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7382121500538785, "afterRecentZones": 0.7382121500538785, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7382121500538785, "adjusted": 0.7358785603652288, "playerFactor": 0.9968388630714363, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7888128286610854, "newChartFactor": 0.7888128286610854, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9804138208115709, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1559287136039578, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3724074895571915, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3544825962126178, "afterRecentDefense": 0.36831435811494023, "afterRecentZones": 0.37165246361063475, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.36756763066003106, "adjusted": 0.34987569169195915, "playerFactor": 0.9518675272457942, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1.1903807262072514, "newChartFactor": 1.185303544790871, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 21.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7268360055245301, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0714525512343127, "adjustedSOG": 2.0300235002096265, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 83, "beforeSOG": 2.0300235002096265, "adjustedSOG": 2.0300235002096265 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 373.0, "goalExpected": 0.2590187393644328, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2505973300098321, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22819144029368568, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6527161197303871 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845073406725344, "modelSOG": 2.0300235002096265, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 66.0, "historyShots": 380.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1736842105263158, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16426056959734447, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.90369632198241, "btb": { "id": "8482116", "name": "Tim Stützle", "score": 67.90369632198241, "components": { "Goal model": 92.2879177377892, "SOG model": 78.92030848329048, "Unit attack": 82.14285714285714, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.62068965517241, "Shot quality": 84.83290488431876, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 39.702889702889706, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2592030077991474, "unitPlayers": [ "Fabian Zetterlund", "Tim Stützle", "Claude Giroux" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 28 } }, { "id": "8482118", "name": "Sam Colangelo", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "currentTOI": 11.780952380952382, "currentFiveTOI": 11.271428571428572, "ppShare": 0.13609850939727802, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.994, "currentIXG": 0.142, "priorTOI": 10.177777777777777, "priorPPTOI": 0.44814814814814813, "deploymentChange": 1.6031746031746046, "ppTOIChange": 0.05185185185185187, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1573177193460445, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.21310847610734726, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21310847610734726, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19193152366076435, "goalProbability": 0.19193152366076435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.354637462284731, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.083650190114068, "Current_PP_SOG60": 34.285714285714285, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.271428571428572, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13609850939727802, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6401705876754483, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0249616817777094, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 210.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1543.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.916113928989465, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.492592592592594, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0855842101358893, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.22344747533372, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "A.J. Greer", "Tim Washe", "Sam Colangelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 10.500399345382505, "index": 110.5003993453825, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.07692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.846153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.46153846153846, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 2 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.500399345382505, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.73496924332958, "attemptProjection": 1.7434519272491533, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 4734.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.271428571428572, "projectedAttempts": 2.8571428571428568, "onNet": 0.47213578500707215, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 210.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6401705876754483, "projectedAttempts": 0.3658117643859705, "onNet": 0.5280460019529131, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.417229533648182, "ppAdjusted": 0.3219810516411847, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7392105852893667, "baseline": 0.7777777777777778, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 9, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482118", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.354637462284731, "adjustedSOG": 1.354637462284731, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.354637462284731, "adjustedSOG": 1.354637462284731, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 203, "beforeSOG": 1.354637462284731, "adjustedSOG": 1.354637462284731 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 53.0, "goalExpected": 0.17044347012454408, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1645801499113963, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1567092405971803, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.49590076731921284 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285619965667503, "modelSOG": 1.354637462284731, "historyGames": 48, "seasonGames": { "2024": 32, "2025": 9, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 58.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.20689655172413793, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1573177193460445, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 51.76681858558465, "btb": { "id": "8482118", "name": "Sam Colangelo", "score": 51.76681858558465, "components": { "Goal model": 68.63753213367609, "SOG model": 48.0719794344473, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 48.329048843187664, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.796499796499795, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.261944958159334, "unitPlayers": [ "A.J. Greer", "Tim Washe", "Sam Colangelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 154 } }, { "id": "8482121", "name": "Dylan Peterson", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.005555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 8.994444444444445, "ppShare": 0.001943634596695821, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.017, "currentIXG": 0.005666666666666667, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12732980615134684, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.04337209770826777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.041165987889990895, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04244498025953414, "goalProbability": 0.04033017684236817, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2114803417165967, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.34062800391539744, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2235948116121063, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.994444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.001943634596695821, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.010536855434814618, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.0100944427278242, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1029.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0895910080163094, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1146233828871939, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2235948116121063, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 2.9863669338769796, "index": 102.98636693387698, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.9863669338769796, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.37154112762906466, "attemptProjection": 0.3097148802017302, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1619.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.994444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5009520182787509, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.010536855434814618, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.34062800391539744, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.34062800391539744, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482121", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.34062800391539744, "adjustedSOG": 0.34062800391539744, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.34062800391539744, "adjustedSOG": 0.34062800391539744, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.34062800391539744, "adjustedSOG": 0.34062800391539744 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.04495786619232722, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04418890373572745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04396223750428199, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07354398730375841 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286031042128603, "modelSOG": 0.34062800391539744, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12732980615134684, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482124", "name": "Quinton Byfield", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.2911392405063293, "currentTOI": 18.279166666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 13.427083333333334, "ppShare": 0.6551882460973371, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.972916666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.115, "currentIXG": 0.264375, "priorTOI": 20.02426160337553, "priorPPTOI": 2.051898734177215, "deploymentChange": -1.7450949367088633, "ppTOIChange": 0.9210179324894519, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.909090909090908, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13375412386162797, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.29268495158746, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2964345992248361, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25374278918434273, "goalProbability": 0.25653575118767746, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27929620033347313, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.188231234576737, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.9100077579519006, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.136650315346882, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.427083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6551882460973371, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7979516236747637, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1427.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2178.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.582822685333817, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.363972856261567, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.114135021097047, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4814366676912757, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0258048859407862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.098776687223756, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1198642233210447, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8250398441650435, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.342629482071713, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Moore", "Quinton Byfield", "Taylor Ward" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 202, "fitPct": 10.205386193576771, "index": 110.20538619357677, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.805280528052803, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.254125412541255, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.54785478547855, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.577557755775576, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.231023102310232, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5841584158415842, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": 3.2925562407918676, "index": 103.29255624079187, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.8979591836734695, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.979591836734695, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.87755102040816, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.9795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.4489795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.205386193576771, "zonePPFit": 3.2925562407918676, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.171717646739385, "attemptProjection": 2.2163934154995806, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 6445.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.427083333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.7500000000000004, "onNet": 0.4451320132013201, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1427.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7979516236747637, "projectedAttempts": 0.8235036313548709, "onNet": 0.5519016158166926, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.195538766441996, "ppAdjusted": 0.6235167646774867, "other": 0.375 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1940555311194827, "baseline": 2.2911392405063293, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482124", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2328890148742215, "adjustedSOG": 2.2328890148742215, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2328890148742215, "adjustedSOG": 2.188231234576737, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 64, "beforeSOG": 2.188231234576737, "adjustedSOG": 2.188231234576737 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 353.0, "goalExpected": 0.2566151261676408, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2566151261676408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22633407976025327, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858126357040725, "modelSOG": 2.188231234576737, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 79, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 355.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1352112676056338, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13375412386162797, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.176185072284284, "btb": { "id": "8482124", "name": "Quinton Byfield", "score": 55.176185072284284, "components": { "Goal model": 86.11825192802057, "SOG model": 83.80462724935732, "Unit attack": 19.047619047619047, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 82.75862068965517, "Shot quality": 77.12082262210797, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 38.621794871794876, "Goalie H2H": 47.57975797579758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1002592663072797, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Moore", "Quinton Byfield", "Taylor Ward" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 123 } }, { "id": "8482125", "name": "Alexander Holtz", "position": "R", "priorGP": 28.0, "priorSOG": 1.0714285714285714, "priorTOI": 11.48095238095238, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 15.286624203821656, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9927827949489821, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 120.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9433368775474039, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8387455835329424, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932 }, "inputs": null, "team": "VGK", "isHome": true, "opponent": "OTT", "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "currentGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentSOG": 3.0, "currentTOI": 11.775, "currentFiveTOI": 11.775, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.4015, "currentIXGTotal": 0.803, "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 1.9653640089091877, "deploymentChange": 0.2940476190476211, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.096906948989876, "goalProbability": 0.17418439287678802, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.583333333333334 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": false, "projected": false, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -5.375147215568589, "index": 94.62485278443141, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.346938775510205, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.979591836734695, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.244897959183675, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.89795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.89795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.375147215568589, "zonePPFit": null, "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.55, "attemptProjection": 2.714224012543091, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1413.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.775, "projectedAttempts": 5.5, "onNet": 0.509008277876968, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.6321120062715453, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6321120062715453, "baseline": 1.0714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 28.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482125", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.007838632334356, "adjustedSOG": 1.9653640089091877, "reductionPct": 2.115440092702392, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.6321120062715453, "afterPlayerForm": 2.6321120062715453, "afterRecentDefense": 2.561320967229599, "afterRecentZones": 2.6321120062715453, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.5613209672295985, "adjusted": 2.5613209672295985, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9478369959776317, "oldChartFactor": 0.8387455835329424, "newChartFactor": 0.8322393743523359, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 23.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.753604198526345, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9653640089091877, "adjustedSOG": 1.9653640089091877, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.9653640089091877, "adjustedSOG": 1.9653640089091877 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.19045742975790084, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19138376631032253, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17341905526897694, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0765337607811084, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865924542924578, "modelSOG": 1.9653640089091877, "historyGames": 83, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 28, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 105.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.096906948989876, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482126", "name": "Emil Andrae", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.2, "priorSOG": 0.5901639344262295, "currentTOI": 10.55, "currentFiveTOI": 10.55, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.024, "currentIXG": 0.0048000000000000004, "priorTOI": 15.337158469945356, "priorPPTOI": 0.38989071038251366, "deploymentChange": -4.787158469945355, "ppTOIChange": -0.38989071038251366, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04649553626252078, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 89.0, "goalExpected": 0.02023910132715737, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019996459780801622, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020035665480436306, "goalProbability": 0.019797856568940737, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.023780891149556907, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.4352912764116616, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.1374407582938388, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1831.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0996387718242024, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.091100210231254, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.522404371584699, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09156558096965894, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1051862507126609, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.4156508061344868, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 3.5062083570886955, "index": 103.5062083570887, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.15789473684211, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.210526315789474, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.210526315789474, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.210526315789474, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7017543859649122, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.508771929824561, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5062083570886955, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.22999999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.48538306689151267, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 3165.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.55, "projectedAttempts": 1.2000000000000002, "onNet": 0.37422427702618843, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3576915334457563, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3576915334457563, "baseline": 0.5901639344262295, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482126", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4506804938379456, "adjustedSOG": 0.4441747718486343, "reductionPct": 1.4435330745977693, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3576915334457563, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3576915334457563, "afterRecentDefense": 0.34711139147891634, "afterRecentZones": 0.3574207973391489, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.34684866346357085, "adjusted": 0.34684866346357085, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.1051862507126609, "newChartFactor": 1.1025843913857567, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4441747718486343, "adjustedSOG": 0.4352912764116616, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.4352912764116616, "adjustedSOG": 0.4352912764116616 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 89.0, "goalExpected": 0.00797042011285157, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.008107517693065749, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.007938740536847625, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.013599987525670515 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787656353616428, "modelSOG": 0.4352912764116616, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 61, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 89.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.033707865168539325, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04649553626252078, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482142", "name": "Jamie Drysdale", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.3846153846153846, "priorSOG": 1.294871794871795, "currentTOI": 22.476923076923075, "currentFiveTOI": 17.398717948717948, "ppShare": 0.5635387368959346, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.825641025641026, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.336, "currentIXG": 0.10276923076923078, "priorTOI": 21.553846153846155, "priorPPTOI": 2.2121794871794873, "deploymentChange": 0.9230769230769198, "ppTOIChange": 0.6134615384615385, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 26.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07366131866981702, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 182.0, "goalExpected": 0.09243316565710859, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09140749276412609, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08828985752343987, "goalProbability": 0.08735426141828351, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09355961051563666, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.254839952993991, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9179868837963303, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.433756805807622, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.398717948717948, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5635387368959346, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.749137832441335, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2204.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1819133347289092, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.259055346276441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.373076923076923, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5195289206917113, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1592298573931887, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8683388665600844, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.761912880402353, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.735849056603774, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 26.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nick Seeler", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 5.307661913106287, "index": 105.30766191310629, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.873949579831944, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.361344537815126, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.352941176470589, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.025210084033613, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.38655462184874, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": -4.388704447997185, "index": 95.61129555200282, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.67567567567568, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.1621621621621623, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.662162162162161, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.307661913106287, "zonePPFit": -4.388704447997185, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4183773796021302, "attemptProjection": 1.0470847744811596, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 13571.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.398717948717948, "projectedAttempts": 1.4615384615384615, "onNet": 0.44864579005023986, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2204.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.749137832441335, "projectedAttempts": 0.823244541475173, "onNet": 0.46083788706739526, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8174230154908042, "ppAdjusted": 0.41530806155084066, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2327310770416449, "baseline": 1.294871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482142", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.257587364173705, "adjustedSOG": 1.254839952993991, "reductionPct": 0.2184668244912813, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8174230154908042, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8174230154908042, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8174230154908042, "afterRecentZones": 0.8156179755337427, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8156179755337427, "adjusted": 0.8156179755337427, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1592298573931887, "newChartFactor": 1.1549291568783788, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.259476571522851, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.41530806155084066, "afterPlayerForm": 0.41530806155084066, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4125340828750458, "afterRecentZones": 0.41530806155084066, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4125340828750458, "adjusted": 0.4125340828750458, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 0.8683388665600844, "newChartFactor": 0.8683388665600844, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3786488740617182, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.254839952993991, "adjustedSOG": 1.254839952993991, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 234, "beforeSOG": 1.254839952993991, "adjustedSOG": 1.254839952993991 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.09207875425809571, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09037585317613414, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08796667979079714, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15544256687095026 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057724918648884, "modelSOG": 1.254839952993991, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 78, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 182.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08241758241758242, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07366131866981702, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.3591609227546, "btb": { "id": "8482142", "name": "Jamie Drysdale", "score": 41.3591609227546, "components": { "Goal model": 30.591259640102827, "SOG model": 40.102827763496144, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 22.62210796915167, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 57.801240154181336, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.3506011532950812, "unitPlayers": [ "Nick Seeler", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 255 } }, { "id": "8482145", "name": "Mavrik Bourque", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.8571428571428572, "priorSOG": 1.7926829268292683, "currentTOI": 15.811904761904762, "currentFiveTOI": 14.078571428571427, "ppShare": 0.23198773633111905, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0809523809523809, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.973, "currentIXG": 0.13899999999999998, "priorTOI": 15.48658536585366, "priorPPTOI": 1.075609756097561, "deploymentChange": 0.3253193960511016, "ppTOIChange": 0.005342624854819844, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12900022873194844, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 240.0, "goalExpected": 0.2176457155477922, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2176457155477922, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19558961871997613, "goalProbability": 0.19558961871997613, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6871730979643575, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.69710806697108, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.859030837004406, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.078571428571427, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23198773633111905, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2196930985893684, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9844154321502332, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 454.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1957.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.829524560021014, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.482993197278912, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.928048780487805, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22267853836702403, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.924958205252656, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0003987084245054, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8198646442388189, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9253269938814057, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.032623559288924, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.2, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Kerfoot", "Mavrik Bourque", "Nils Hoglander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": 0.013290280816846689, "index": 100.01329028081685, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.316483516483515, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.03076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.474725274725277, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.474725274725277, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.017582417582418, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -6.004511858706039, "index": 93.99548814129396, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.013290280816846689, "zonePPFit": -6.004511858706039, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7281132409806637, "attemptProjection": 1.5055531831281699, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 5913.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.078571428571427, "projectedAttempts": 2.571428571428571, "onNet": 0.5369562189516691, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 454.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2196930985893684, "projectedAttempts": 0.32238584103683743, "onNet": 0.5389270878097694, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3976533475696895, "ppAdjusted": 0.21917986448472723, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6168332120544169, "baseline": 1.7926829268292683, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482145", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6871730979643575, "adjustedSOG": 1.6871730979643575, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6871730979643575, "adjustedSOG": 1.6871730979643575, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 131, "beforeSOG": 1.6871730979643575, "adjustedSOG": 1.6871730979643575 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.2405833258155274, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2405833258155274, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21383086546549807, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860077768862477, "modelSOG": 1.6871730979643575, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 240.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12916666666666668, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12900022873194844, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.984868832308024, "btb": { "id": "8482145", "name": "Mavrik Bourque", "score": 51.984868832308024, "components": { "Goal model": 70.17994858611826, "SOG model": 66.58097686375321, "Unit attack": 36.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 47.55784061696658, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.157133464825776, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.279154037057577, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Kerfoot", "Mavrik Bourque", "Nils Hoglander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 153 } }, { "id": "8482146", "name": "Luke Evangelista", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.1728395061728394, "currentTOI": 17.08125, "currentFiveTOI": 13.054166666666667, "ppShare": 0.6404402772115777, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2729166666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.634, "currentIXG": 0.32925, "priorTOI": 16.622427983539097, "priorPPTOI": 2.093621399176955, "deploymentChange": 0.45882201646090337, "ppTOIChange": 1.179295267489712, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020945", "date": "20260228", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020233", "date": "20251108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020145", "date": "20251026", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021304", "date": "20250416", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021201", "date": "20250403", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08727198203936581, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 334.0, "goalExpected": 0.2009162010822959, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19943991095030714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18201902539772313, "goalProbability": 0.18081055635078022, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12084690469429116, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.3021844627256036, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.617938078518991, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.33227243793762, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.054166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6404402772115777, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.538917713622157, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1571.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2453.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.075722645859195, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.906633906633907, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.923456790123456, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184839674205518, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020945", "date": "20260228", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020233", "date": "20251108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020145", "date": "20251026", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021304", "date": "20250416", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021201", "date": "20250403", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020466", "date": "20241212", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020017", "date": "20241010", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 196, "fitPct": -8.73385956542117, "index": 91.26614043457883, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.187969924812029, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.254564983888296, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.87540279269603, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.061224489795918, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.375939849624057, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.2448979591836737, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": -13.273614593545915, "index": 86.72638540645409, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.36842105263158, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.119617224880383, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 57.32057416267943, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.61244019138756, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.73385956542117, "zonePPFit": -13.273614593545915, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.6378323852054995, "attemptProjection": 2.295607670256578, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 6266.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.054166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5721357850070721, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1571.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.538917713622157, "projectedAttempts": 2.2977059630137493, "onNet": 0.49937898659032065, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.406842053426566, "ppAdjusted": 0.9348779743044731, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.466720027731039, "baseline": 2.1728395061728394, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482146", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.349167819107759, "adjustedSOG": 2.349167819107759, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.349167819107759, "adjustedSOG": 2.3021844627256036, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 51, "beforeSOG": 2.3021844627256036, "adjustedSOG": 2.3021844627256036 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 328.0, "goalExpected": 0.24354237825836317, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2488597001762136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21615374271080673, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41569012985988585 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1287604020508476, "modelSOG": 2.3021844627256036, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 81, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 334.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0748502994011976, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08727198203936581, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.6343270176054, "btb": { "id": "8482146", "name": "Luke Evangelista", "score": 59.6343270176054, "components": { "Goal model": 65.29562982005142, "SOG model": 87.14652956298201, "Unit attack": 88.0952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 65.51724137931035, "Shot quality": 85.34704370179949, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 35.62929445282386, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4770393227530136, "unitPlayers": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 84 } }, { "id": "8482149", "name": "Cole Perfetti", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.909090909090909, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 19.116666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.934848484848485, "ppShare": 0.7329931972789115, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.265151515151515, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.889, "currentIXG": 0.4444545454545455, "priorTOI": 15.623774509803923, "priorPPTOI": 2.174509803921569, "deploymentChange": 3.4928921568627445, "ppTOIChange": 1.0906417112299462, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11888983500231262, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 311.0, "goalExpected": 0.2930832514758458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2991775193734881, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2540399641618088, "goalProbability": 0.25857222004301966, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4532255881210867, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.465166609661329, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.6696763721213355, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.034802784222737, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.934848484848485, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7329931972789115, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.959829158936302, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9841867136275031, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2155.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.118072382577006, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.738503155996392, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.643872549019607, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4764796527605671, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8770600744284955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8386620042644336, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7728333888426419, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.358619123325005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 37, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -5.377933191185548, "index": 94.62206680881445, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.072511535926171, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.5932762030323, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.19116677653263, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.450230718523402, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.473302570863545, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2195121951219512, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": -7.572220371911939, "index": 92.42777962808806, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.380952380952383, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 57.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.377933191185548, "zonePPFit": -7.572220371911939, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.6479615027829313, "attemptProjection": 2.902593862754832, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 9857.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.934848484848485, "projectedAttempts": 4.454545454545455, "onNet": 0.4651465146514651, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2155.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.959829158936302, "projectedAttempts": 1.7640074211502783, "onNet": 0.5220968500235073, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.745343458053932, "ppAdjusted": 0.8481160428967681, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.7752776827688814, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482149", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.465166609661329, "adjustedSOG": 2.465166609661329, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.465166609661329, "adjustedSOG": 2.465166609661329, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 36, "beforeSOG": 2.465166609661329, "adjustedSOG": 2.465166609661329 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.27920507856768606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27920507856768606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24361523099680663, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863722185950485, "modelSOG": 2.465166609661329, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 311.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1157556270096463, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11888983500231262, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.45973087238804, "btb": { "id": "8482149", "name": "Cole Perfetti", "score": 66.45973087238804, "components": { "Goal model": 86.63239074550128, "SOG model": 91.25964010282776, "Unit attack": 85.71428571428571, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 48.275862068965516, "Shot quality": 95.37275064267352, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 53.215303215303216, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.320862519160167, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 43 } }, { "id": "8482155", "name": "Alex Laferriere", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 2.548780487804878, "currentTOI": 19.003333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.826666666666668, "ppShare": 0.5372, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2383333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.498, "currentIXG": 0.24980000000000002, "priorTOI": 18.31036585365854, "priorPPTOI": 1.599390243902439, "deploymentChange": 0.6929674796747953, "ppTOIChange": 0.6389430894308943, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.909090909090908, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10552078118026206, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 420.0, "goalExpected": 0.23741858736651644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24046020614588856, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21133890465578398, "goalProbability": 0.21373406662257544, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23951619667914592, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.2499699557846546, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.66546762589928, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.722263588979896, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.826666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5372, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.2940881818181813, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1343.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.16545039587501, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.639725505146778, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.427235772357724, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3752646739026763, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0258048859407862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1257647577820773, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1473702443589422, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.65546218487395, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.380400421496311, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artemi Panarin", "Alex Laferriere", "Adrian Kempe" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 270, "fitPct": 9.937333667083294, "index": 109.9373336670833, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.084656084656086, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.8994708994709, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.67724867724868, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.433862433862435, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": 4.1921585927359075, "index": 104.19215859273591, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.818181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545456, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.545454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.937333667083294, "zonePPFit": 4.1921585927359075, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.080380077632826, "attemptProjection": 2.174204971908476, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8896.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.826666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.6, "onNet": 0.454064011052268, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1343.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.2940881818181813, "projectedAttempts": 0.6149454545454544, "onNet": 0.5260427160991336, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7296209998483476, "ppAdjusted": 0.3976715249223033, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1272925247706507, "baseline": 2.548780487804878, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482155", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2958877099843416, "adjustedSOG": 2.2958877099843416, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2958877099843416, "adjustedSOG": 2.2499699557846546, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 56, "beforeSOG": 2.2499699557846546, "adjustedSOG": 2.2499699557846546 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 418.0, "goalExpected": 0.20494534811111667, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20494534811111667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18530816035734157, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12870806213736277, "modelSOG": 2.2499699557846546, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 420.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10552078118026206, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.595006923889486, "btb": { "id": "8482155", "name": "Alex Laferriere", "score": 63.595006923889486, "components": { "Goal model": 75.83547557840618, "SOG model": 85.8611825192802, "Unit attack": 84.52380952380952, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 82.75862068965517, "Shot quality": 75.57840616966581, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 63.94230769230769, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3111267811696563, "unitPlayers": [ "Artemi Panarin", "Alex Laferriere", "Adrian Kempe" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 62 } }, { "id": "8482159", "name": "Tyson Foerster", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.103448275862069, "currentTOI": 17.618055555555554, "currentFiveTOI": 12.472222222222221, "ppShare": 0.512902367650971, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6777777777777776, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.005, "currentIXG": 0.2504166666666667, "priorTOI": 17.297701149425286, "priorPPTOI": 2.0482758620689654, "deploymentChange": 0.3203544061302672, "ppTOIChange": 0.6295019157088122, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1596710645233071, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.36186996407394995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3578545199387565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30362708454864085, "goalProbability": 0.300825216401602, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2801868147038866, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.266346536576939, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.815144766146993, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.203319502074688, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.472222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.512902367650971, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.502116023158853, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4166666666666667, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1928.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3759.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.592564200843235, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.151515151515152, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.494827586206897, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.48103626042403236, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9759597963554514, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1580082965065435, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0004914625201264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1238490618298143, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.246663107314469, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.895522388059701, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Bump", "Sean Couturier", "Tyson Foerster" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": -0.8013401214849551, "index": 99.19865987851504, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.91916558018253, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.337679269882656, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.434159061277704, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.298565840938723, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.654498044328552, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3559322033898307, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": 5.266943216884783, "index": 105.26694321688478, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 28.484848484848484, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.13131313131313, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.7979797979798, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.36363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8013401214849551, "zonePPFit": 5.266943216884783, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3590919517157074, "attemptProjection": 2.4478873752572197, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8980.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.472222222222221, "projectedAttempts": 3.25, "onNet": 0.4724663477583713, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1928.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.502116023158853, "projectedAttempts": 0.934400174623638, "onNet": 0.5073934209927659, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.483530119845956, "ppAdjusted": 0.5032928769738408, "other": 0.4166666666666667 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4034896634864635, "baseline": 2.103448275862069, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482159", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2834731084367057, "adjustedSOG": 2.266346536576939, "reductionPct": 0.750022927639904, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.483530119845956, "afterPlayerForm": 1.483530119845956, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4821094628025322, "afterRecentZones": 1.483530119845956, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4821094628025322, "adjusted": 1.4821094628025322, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 0.9759597963554514, "newChartFactor": 0.9759597963554514, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2834155119435078, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5032928769738408, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4842046515513185, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4960462279039525, "afterRecentZones": 0.5021712014660302, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.49494070281103403, "adjusted": 0.4761692475843198, "playerFactor": 0.9620733249051834, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.1580082965065435, "newChartFactor": 1.153060657544112, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.366666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7067448680351908, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.266346536576939, "adjustedSOG": 2.266346536576939, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 53, "beforeSOG": 2.266346536576939, "adjustedSOG": 2.266346536576939 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 228.0, "goalExpected": 0.3705954062238344, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.363741628462467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30967681447079853, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47475725161373883 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285112235721465, "modelSOG": 2.266346536576939, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 29, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 231.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17316017316017315, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1596710645233071, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.928140475553896, "btb": { "id": "8482159", "name": "Tyson Foerster", "score": 56.928140475553896, "components": { "Goal model": 95.37275064267352, "SOG model": 86.63239074550128, "Unit attack": 8.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.34961439588689, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 51.668701668701665, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9288345001471112, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Bump", "Sean Couturier", "Tyson Foerster" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 104 } }, { "id": "8482169", "name": "Helge Grans", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055080071512800026, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 153.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 746.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.399131190269331, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482169", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783407508844003, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 7, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055080071512800026, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482175", "name": "JJ Peterka", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.951219512195122, "currentTOI": 16.934722222222224, "currentFiveTOI": 14.570833333333333, "ppShare": 0.39539944047248987, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.03, "currentIXG": 0.3358333333333334, "priorTOI": 15.984349593495935, "priorPPTOI": 1.8451219512195123, "deploymentChange": 0.9503726287262886, "ppTOIChange": -0.07845528455284567, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021269", "date": "20260411", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020851", "date": "20260129", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021235", "date": "20250408", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020940", "date": "20250227", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020705", "date": "20250115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15165407908814668, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 354.0, "goalExpected": 0.25184423943957446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25184423943957446, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22263418842607072, "goalProbability": 0.22263418842607072, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6606492944590943, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.490420360308836, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.660377358490566, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.570833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.39539944047248987, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8495273506930328, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0477772884824241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1272.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.206085138561452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.741573033707865, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.707926829268292, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3874453701174543, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9176080040573562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.033791656956421, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.185840707964602, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021269", "date": "20260411", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020851", "date": "20260129", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021235", "date": "20250408", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020940", "date": "20250227", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020705", "date": "20250115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "JJ Peterka", "Pavel Zacha", "David Pastrnak" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 205, "fitPct": -9.518033476023547, "index": 90.48196652397645, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.675958188153308, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.9198606271777, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.986062717770036, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.829268292682926, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.02787456445993, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5609756097560978, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": -10.563278889500623, "index": 89.43672111049938, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 35.21739130434783, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.130434782608695, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.518033476023547, "zonePPFit": -10.563278889500623, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.531644488813435, "attemptProjection": 1.515196482882505, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 10491.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.570833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.833333333333333, "onNet": 0.4886845827439887, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1272.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8495273506930328, "projectedAttempts": 0.17448371232953142, "onNet": 0.5280460019529131, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1586810413712514, "ppAdjusted": 0.11473944447671858, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.52342048584797, "baseline": 1.951219512195122, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482175", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.694540096386831, "adjustedSOG": 1.694540096386831, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1586810413712514, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1586810413712514, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1586810413712514, "afterRecentZones": 1.1586810413712514, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1586810413712514, "adjusted": 1.1586810413712514, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.81666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2556473863908384, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1192188200501805, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.11473944447671858, "afterPlayerForm": 0.11473944447671858, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1147394444767186, "afterRecentZones": 0.11473944447671859, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.11473944447671859, "adjusted": 0.11473944447671859, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4164810690423162, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.694540096386831, "adjustedSOG": 1.6606492944590943, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 137, "beforeSOG": 1.6606492944590943, "adjustedSOG": 1.6606492944590943 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.24280786223722028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23354476248287895, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2155777835770041, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7299939074630446 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850951906018587, "modelSOG": 1.6606492944590943, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 56.0, "historyShots": 354.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15819209039548024, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15165407908814668, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.77408809413951, "btb": { "id": "8482175", "name": "JJ Peterka", "score": 65.77408809413951, "components": { "Goal model": 79.69151670951157, "SOG model": 65.03856041131105, "Unit attack": 89.28571428571429, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 88.94601542416453, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.40455840455841, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.552140526598164, "unitPlayers": [ "JJ Peterka", "Pavel Zacha", "David Pastrnak" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 48 } }, { "id": "8482176", "name": "Wyatt Kaiser", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.974025974025974, "currentTOI": 19.037878787878785, "currentFiveTOI": 16.39090909090909, "ppShare": 0.02532051282051282, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.11969696969696969, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.448, "currentIXG": 0.04072727272727273, "priorTOI": 19.613419913419914, "priorPPTOI": 0.08051948051948052, "deploymentChange": -0.5755411255411289, "ppTOIChange": 0.03917748917748917, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.1 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06388386417237195, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.045264431085473886, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045264431085473886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04425528019818953, "goalProbability": 0.04425528019818953, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7085424726867029, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9966722129783694, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.39090909090909, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02532051282051282, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11373897630147631, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 79.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.122093461702823, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.221212121212123, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018606156110910765, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.02968212384581, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0427574524025822, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1360759493670884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 111, "fitPct": 0.9894041281936694, "index": 100.98940412819367, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.5110565110565, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.4995904995905, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8018018018018018, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.395577395577394, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.1752661752661755, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.616707616707617, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9894041281936694, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5687767922195902, "attemptProjection": 0.4943301513681205, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 10818.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.39090909090909, "projectedAttempts": 1.1818181818181819, "onNet": 0.4120088811661357, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 79.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.11373897630147631, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5315534717938554, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5315534717938554, "baseline": 0.974025974025974, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482176", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7085424726867029, "adjustedSOG": 0.7085424726867029, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7085424726867029, "adjustedSOG": 0.7085424726867029, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 359, "beforeSOG": 0.7085424726867029, "adjustedSOG": 0.7085424726867029 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.04512111237046538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0466049038106742, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.044118294276982745, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14172773607683473 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577931445057587, "modelSOG": 0.7085424726867029, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06802721088435375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06388386417237195, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.581123113176456, "btb": { "id": "8482176", "name": "Wyatt Kaiser", "score": 28.581123113176456, "components": { "Goal model": 10.025706940874036, "SOG model": 7.969151670951157, "Unit attack": 4.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 7.969151670951157, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 66.07905982905983, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.707554590408238, "unitPlayers": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 366 } }, { "id": "8482177", "name": "Marat Khusnutdinov", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.0129870129870129, "currentTOI": 13.930555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 11.27361111111111, "ppShare": 0.0024867889337892445, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.016, "currentIXG": 0.168, "priorTOI": 14.50021645021645, "priorPPTOI": 0.6188311688311688, "deploymentChange": -0.5696608946608954, "ppTOIChange": -0.6077200577200578, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020867", "date": "20250206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1552154850546352, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 131.0, "goalExpected": 0.13579639012691197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13579639012691197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12697963003971585, "goalProbability": 0.12697963003971585, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8748894485567095, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.878649747443637, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.27361111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0024867889337892445, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.011632247488635427, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0063949546692474, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.1492761469011405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.295907660020986, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.394588744588745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1411310955560302, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9176080040573562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9432460593792491, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8655301338819593, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.371530886302597, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020867", "date": "20250206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020624", "date": "20250104", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Fraser Minten", "Morgan Geekie" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": -1.8917980206916951, "index": 98.1082019793083, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.4615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.79120879120879, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.4065934065934, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.054945054945055, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.978021978021978, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3076923076923084, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8917980206916951, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8767359560584627, "attemptProjection": 0.7578931258479584, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8117.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.27361111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.5258879909791392, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.011632247488635427, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7339812076198772, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8173145409532105, "baseline": 1.0129870129870129, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482177", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8955835297667314, "adjustedSOG": 0.8927443352619484, "reductionPct": 0.3170217417377552, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7339812076198772, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7292492167785721, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7339812076198772, "afterRecentZones": 0.7339812076198772, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7339812076198772, "adjusted": 0.7292492167785721, "playerFactor": 0.993552980931692, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9432460593792491, "newChartFactor": 0.9432460593792491, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.083333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9551016977643301, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1192188200501805, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8927443352619484, "adjustedSOG": 0.8748894485567095, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 323, "beforeSOG": 0.8748894485567095, "adjustedSOG": 0.8748894485567095 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.15573671905698308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14979537617481042, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14421552754359523, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5099643347702465 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854777047620725, "modelSOG": 0.8748894485567095, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 131.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17557251908396945, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1552154850546352, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.1481333041423, "btb": { "id": "8482177", "name": "Marat Khusnutdinov", "score": 42.1481333041423, "components": { "Goal model": 46.52956298200514, "SOG model": 17.223650385604113, "Unit attack": 69.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 53.72750642673522, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 31.356837606837605, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.846579866867944, "unitPlayers": [ "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Fraser Minten", "Morgan Geekie" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 247 } }, { "id": "8482245", "name": "Artem Zub", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 1.1358024691358024, "currentTOI": 18.663333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 15.62, "ppShare": 0.004651162790697674, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.026666666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.20700000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.041400000000000006, "priorTOI": 20.79238683127572, "priorPPTOI": 0.10679012345679013, "deploymentChange": -2.1290534979423867, "ppTOIChange": -0.08012345679012348, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.050741453187180034, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.038128174413312184, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03888555641983835, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03741044636747358, "goalProbability": 0.038139218360830625, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07287719933570455, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7514206239356458, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3047375160051216, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.62, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004651162790697674, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.022161349632279864, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1720.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8416591699009954, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5577264653641207, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Sanderson", "Artem Zub" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 152, "fitPct": -5.278027669966818, "index": 94.72197233003318, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 114 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.7894736842105265, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.578947368421053, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.278027669966818, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.51, "attemptProjection": 0.5314491701850724, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 4686.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.62, "projectedAttempts": 1.4, "onNet": 0.40274665813099214, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.022161349632279864, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5207245850925362, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5207245850925362, "baseline": 1.1358024691358024, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482245", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7667557387098427, "adjustedSOG": 0.7667557387098427, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5207245850925362, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5207245850925362, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5207245850925362, "afterRecentZones": 0.5207245850925362, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5207245850925362, "adjusted": 0.5207245850925362, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8416591699009954, "newChartFactor": 0.8347061048717916, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.13333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7667557387098427, "adjustedSOG": 0.7514206239356458, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 353, "beforeSOG": 0.7514206239356458, "adjustedSOG": 0.7514206239356458 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.03418249636653063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03307112969332755, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03360487505526568, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10746163708118955 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786846203169369, "modelSOG": 0.7514206239356458, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 81, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046052631578947366, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.050741453187180034, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.490116699444826, "btb": { "id": "8482245", "name": "Artem Zub", "score": 35.490116699444826, "components": { "Goal model": 6.169665809768637, "SOG model": 9.511568123393316, "Unit attack": 65.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 24.42159383033419, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 51.93951347797502, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8471462478305565, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Sanderson", "Artem Zub" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 308 } }, { "id": "8482408", "name": "Jeff Malott", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 0.9310344827586207, "currentTOI": 10.035, "currentFiveTOI": 9.761666666666667, "ppShare": 0.002457002457002457, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.57, "currentIXG": 0.157, "priorTOI": 8.818965517241379, "priorPPTOI": 0.005459770114942529, "deploymentChange": 1.2160344827586211, "ppTOIChange": 0.0062068965517241385, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021260", "date": "20260409", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021149", "date": "20260326", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020401", "date": "20251129", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09582545921989648, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.10285705974073225, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10285705974073225, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09774406703847048, "goalProbability": 0.09774406703847048, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0733792520075478, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.531842240054636, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.761666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002457002457002457, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.011557075193438831, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0308143473586933, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2849.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.291630943744641, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.714367816091954, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0012810249778492857, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.468008353901652, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021260", "date": "20260409", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021149", "date": "20260326", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020401", "date": "20251129", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeff Malott", "Mikael Granlund", "Beckett Sennecke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": 13.83345743727864, "index": 113.83345743727864, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.724489795918366, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.505102040816325, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.275510204081634, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.596938775510203, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.76530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.13265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 13.83345743727864, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0350000000000001, "attemptProjection": 1.3015515296803317, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 5857.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.761666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.6000000000000005, "onNet": 0.44421557087607194, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.011557075193438831, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1682757648401658, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1682757648401658, "baseline": 0.9310344827586207, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482408", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0733792520075478, "adjustedSOG": 1.0733792520075478, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0733792520075478, "adjustedSOG": 1.0733792520075478, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 284, "beforeSOG": 1.0733792520075478, "adjustedSOG": 1.0733792520075478 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 75.0, "goalExpected": 0.08861141579747722, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08556314938409484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08479886280918103, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2794033203277868 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286528082270178, "modelSOG": 1.0733792520075478, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 58, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09582545921989648, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.36350295278514, "btb": { "id": "8482408", "name": "Jeff Malott", "score": 37.36350295278514, "components": { "Goal model": 33.67609254498715, "SOG model": 27.249357326478147, "Unit attack": 30.952380952380953, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 49.87146529562982, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.222879684418146, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.20863309298682, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeff Malott", "Mikael Granlund", "Beckett Sennecke" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 294 } }, { "id": "8482459", "name": "Tyrel Bauer", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.572222222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 8.572222222222221, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.057, "currentIXG": 0.0095, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.056696191644762334, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.020379251896897255, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.020803010743531525, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020172998416374592, "goalProbability": 0.020588120814360476, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.041512239798588424, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.35944657490552834, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3331173039533377, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.572222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9409048416293204, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.94124427339037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3331173039533377, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Tyrel Bauer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -1.9698386123559857, "index": 98.03016138764401, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.9698386123559857, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.31374809113012325, "attemptProjection": 0.4051450586809334, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3086.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.572222222222221, "projectedAttempts": 1.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.38520279848186934, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.35944657490552834, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.35944657490552834, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482459", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.35944657490552834, "adjustedSOG": 0.35944657490552834, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.35944657490552834, "adjustedSOG": 0.35944657490552834, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 389, "beforeSOG": 0.35944657490552834, "adjustedSOG": 0.35944657490552834 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.019451914843442438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019451914843442438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.019263947098490473, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783011547765758, "modelSOG": 0.35944657490552834, "historyGames": 6, "seasonGames": { "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.056696191644762334, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 23.695869197885678, "btb": { "id": "8482459", "name": "Tyrel Bauer", "score": 23.695869197885678, "components": { "Goal model": 0.5141388174807198, "SOG model": 0.2570694087403599, "Unit attack": 9.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 14.910025706940875, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8228844281998338, "unitPlayers": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Tyrel Bauer" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 390 } }, { "id": "8482476", "name": "Emil Heineman", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 2.1219512195121952, "currentTOI": 15.553030303030305, "currentFiveTOI": 12.775757575757575, "ppShare": 0.05443860191772348, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.26666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.132, "currentIXG": 0.19381818181818183, "priorTOI": 16.616056910569107, "priorPPTOI": 1.5890243902439025, "deploymentChange": -1.0630266075388022, "ppTOIChange": -1.322357723577236, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020411", "date": "20241205", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1327447776928419, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.22459182825705606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22459182825705606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20115778295672512, "goalProbability": 0.20115778295672512, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6919070728095913, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.977229601518027, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.775757575757575, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05443860191772348, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.27182183730281473, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9949576308000262, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 176.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0033670033670035, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.511895625479662, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.582317073170731, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3466839313904608, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0144422562238045, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.080817509657478, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0964269530631254, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.548005716512927, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020411", "date": "20241205", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": 2.6939169885826004, "index": 102.6939169885826, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.887096774193548, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.03763440860215, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.607526881720432, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.451612903225804, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.586021505376344, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.43010752688172, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.6939169885826004, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4863615766257958, "attemptProjection": 1.4391560926286622, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8432.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.775757575757575, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.4969279921356598, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 176.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.27182183730281473, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3718497437181383, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.462758834627229, "baseline": 2.1219512195121952, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482476", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7264357885812156, "adjustedSOG": 1.7264357885812156, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7264357885812156, "adjustedSOG": 1.6919070728095913, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 129, "beforeSOG": 1.6919070728095913, "adjustedSOG": 1.6919070728095913 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.21149642685045275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21149642685045275, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19062782694462724, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285890652557319, "modelSOG": 1.6919070728095913, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 253.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13438735177865613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1327447776928419, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.32965278308026, "btb": { "id": "8482476", "name": "Emil Heineman", "score": 55.32965278308026, "components": { "Goal model": 72.49357326478149, "SOG model": 67.09511568123393, "Unit attack": 79.76190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 63.49614395886889, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.887573964497044, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1627152465214055, "unitPlayers": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 121 } }, { "id": "8482482", "name": "Adam Wilsby", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.0172413793103448, "currentTOI": 19.150000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 17.066666666666666, "ppShare": 0.007279344858962694, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03636363636363637, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.857, "currentIXG": 0.07790909090909091, "priorTOI": 17.008333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.03275862068965517, "deploymentChange": 2.1416666666666693, "ppTOIChange": 0.0036050156739812003, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03801005961563676, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.04172915832760605, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04172915832760605, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0408704823603141, "goalProbability": 0.0408704823603141, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0978451165185572, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.196022727272727, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.066666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007279344858962694, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03827170706151598, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6072144288577155, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.486206896551725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00811265094494853, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9660610092766235, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131211580502023, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7533460803059273, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -1.1312996907792154, "index": 98.86870030922078, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.80392156862745, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.1568627450980395, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.372549019607844, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.431372549019608, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.431372549019606, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.8039215686274512, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.1312996907792154, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1028374164092747, "attemptProjection": 1.2003244662387893, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 11264.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.066666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.3890462274476176, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 24.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03827170706151598, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8788536685967593, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.151580941324032, "baseline": 1.0172413793103448, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482482", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0978451165185572, "adjustedSOG": 1.0978451165185572, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0978451165185572, "adjustedSOG": 1.0978451165185572, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 274, "beforeSOG": 1.0978451165185572, "adjustedSOG": 1.0978451165185572 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.042445406614045306, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.042445406614045306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04155721127023602, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05792062221205536, "modelSOG": 1.0978451165185572, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2024": 23, "2025": 58, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 105.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.01904761904761905, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03801005961563676, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.11658184657863, "btb": { "id": "8482482", "name": "Adam Wilsby", "score": 35.11658184657863, "components": { "Goal model": 7.712082262210797, "SOG model": 29.82005141388175, "Unit attack": 76.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 17.737789203084834, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.02089268755935, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0609221869582806, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 312 } }, { "id": "8482511", "name": "Mason Lohrei", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9863013698630136, "currentTOI": 18.052777777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 15.9, "ppShare": 0.20547093565433633, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9180555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9390000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.07825, "priorTOI": 16.90525114155251, "priorPPTOI": 1.3070776255707763, "deploymentChange": 1.1475266362252654, "ppTOIChange": -0.3890220700152207, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07164488968053778, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 176.0, "goalExpected": 0.06525119577538024, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06525119577538024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06316789444895983, "goalProbability": 0.06316789444895983, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9107585490930783, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.830188679245283, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.892586989409985, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.9, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20547093565433633, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9611144487485022, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 661.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0628057488377745, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.803493449781659, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.027853881278538, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.29809309318080857, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7844192892135771, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0405405405405403, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Frederic Brunet", "Mason Lohrei" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": -12.72529456861919, "index": 87.27470543138081, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 51.68913560666139, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.653449643140362, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2371134020618557, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.07216494845361, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.93576526566217, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4123711340206186, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -7.186023692880767, "index": 92.81397630711923, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.80000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -12.72529456861919, "zonePPFit": -7.186023692880767, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.869144488813435, "attemptProjection": 0.9208365477159105, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 11448.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.9, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.38100736201929675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 661.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9611144487485022, "projectedAttempts": 0.34896742465906283, "onNet": 0.4279835390946502, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6717148126625287, "ppAdjusted": 0.1399423722688107, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8949905182646727, "baseline": 0.9863013698630136, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482511", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.931514858904009, "adjustedSOG": 0.9293454582582432, "reductionPct": 0.23288953740557838, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6717148126625287, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6717148126625287, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6680991449195852, "afterRecentZones": 0.6717148126625287, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6680991449195854, "adjusted": 0.6680991449195854, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.050170124758156, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1399423722688107, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1399423722688107, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13994237226881073, "afterRecentZones": 0.13994237226881073, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13994237226881073, "adjusted": 0.13994237226881073, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7844192892135771, "newChartFactor": 0.7601690936000123, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.8833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9104046242774566, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9293454582582432, "adjustedSOG": 0.9107585490930783, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 317, "beforeSOG": 0.9107585490930783, "adjustedSOG": 0.9107585490930783 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.07124791403438789, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06852981203839699, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06876900172586788, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.25346239578571267 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577398955182843, "modelSOG": 0.9107585490930783, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 73, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 176.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07954545454545454, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07164488968053778, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.087938015878244, "btb": { "id": "8482511", "name": "Mason Lohrei", "score": 39.087938015878244, "components": { "Goal model": 19.02313624678663, "SOG model": 18.76606683804627, "Unit attack": 64.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.709511568123393, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.78537511870845, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7924012418329114, "unitPlayers": [ "Frederic Brunet", "Mason Lohrei" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 277 } }, { "id": "8482516", "name": "Matthew Kessel", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.6896551724137931, "currentTOI": 13.68888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 12.16388888888889, "ppShare": 0.024737167594310452, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1111111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.359, "currentIXG": 0.05983333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.536781609195403, "priorPPTOI": 0.0028735632183908046, "deploymentChange": 1.152107279693487, "ppTOIChange": 0.1082375478927203, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021121", "date": "20250323", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05368360936607653, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.05748293363573774, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05748293363573774, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05586199674799489, "goalProbability": 0.05586199674799489, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0707725191082635, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.754738524777347, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.16388888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.024737167594310452, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12351717546522742, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 40.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1617.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1342308590370276, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.993065187239944, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021121", "date": "20250323", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": 4.474361967900919, "index": 104.47436196790092, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70.3409090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.159090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.474361967900919, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5083333333333333, "attemptProjection": 1.2142098351090358, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 4379.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.16388888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.42119624239791487, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 40.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.12351717546522742, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1946049175545177, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3612715842211847, "baseline": 0.6896551724137931, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482516", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.092625019498228, "adjustedSOG": 1.092625019498228, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.092625019498228, "adjustedSOG": 1.0707725191082635, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 286, "beforeSOG": 1.0707725191082635, "adjustedSOG": 1.0707725191082635 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 43.0, "goalExpected": 0.04612929829978615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04612929829978615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04508151512834532, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784123358081097, "modelSOG": 1.0707725191082635, "historyGames": 64, "seasonGames": { "2024": 29, "2025": 29, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 45.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.044444444444444446, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05368360936607653, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.10614967901279, "btb": { "id": "8482516", "name": "Matthew Kessel", "score": 36.10614967901279, "components": { "Goal model": 14.910025706940875, "SOG model": 26.73521850899743, "Unit attack": 70.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 24.67866323907455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.588448588448585, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8911364064037945, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 303 } }, { "id": "8482641", "name": "Matt Kiersted", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 12.873333333333331, "currentFiveTOI": 11.936666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.357, "currentIXG": 0.07139999999999999, "priorTOI": 15.727777777777776, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.854444444444445, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05164581811541271, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.04996750015682785, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0520240608808137, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.048739660189800346, "goalProbability": 0.05069397457103515, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.19543143812348063, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9675033135338406, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.042446244065903, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.936666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1347.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9128103592345518, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.105263157894736, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -2.906321358848274, "index": 97.09367864115173, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 44.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.906321358848274, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.36, "attemptProjection": 1.0419387081649907, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 3581.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.936666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.5999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4437549129121675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2009693540824955, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2009693540824955, "baseline": 0.6666666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 6, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482641", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9872482791161639, "adjustedSOG": 0.9872482791161639, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2009693540824955, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2009693540824955, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2009693540824955, "afterRecentZones": 1.2009693540824955, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2009693540824955, "adjusted": 1.2009693540824955, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9128103592345518, "newChartFactor": 0.9128103592345518, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.68333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9872482791161639, "adjustedSOG": 0.9675033135338406, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 309, "beforeSOG": 0.9675033135338406, "adjustedSOG": 0.9675033135338406 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.07270224056599851, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07270224056599851, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07012233134359991, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784331628926224, "modelSOG": 0.9675033135338406, "historyGames": 13, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 6, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05164581811541271, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 35.57477157409279, "btb": { "id": "8482641", "name": "Matt Kiersted", "score": 35.57477157409279, "components": { "Goal model": 13.110539845758355, "SOG model": 20.822622107969153, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 34.19023136246787, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8557217274431643, "unitPlayers": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 307 } }, { "id": "8482659", "name": "Josh Doan", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 2.073170731707317, "currentTOI": 15.674242424242424, "currentFiveTOI": 13.756060606060606, "ppShare": 0.3046144859813084, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5803030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.016, "currentIXG": 0.18327272727272728, "priorTOI": 15.866463414634145, "priorPPTOI": 2.682520325203252, "deploymentChange": -0.19222099039172136, "ppTOIChange": -1.1022172949002218, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020668", "date": "20250110", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12529756215406065, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.2150195463322701, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21109119042931507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1934743245955802, "goalProbability": 0.19029977339671633, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.31745511988638675, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7160712677545238, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.344311047472188, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.756060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3046144859813084, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.600129894889314, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9870699475962634, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1043.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.6208328620138, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.365206849522655, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.577845528455287, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5596878843136424, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0314277451074905, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1122815329599673, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0938407483420902, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.147238033465602, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.1160480920020905, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020668", "date": "20250110", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Doan", "Noah Ostlund", "Jack Quinn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 195, "fitPct": 3.7427177653322445, "index": 103.74271776533224, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.172494172494172, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.706293706293707, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.226107226107224, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.762237762237763, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.49184149184149, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.641025641025641, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": 3.128024944736339, "index": 103.12802494473634, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.5686274509803921, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.98039215686274, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54.31372549019608, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705888, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.7427177653322445, "zonePPFit": 3.128024944736339, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6687098668590574, "attemptProjection": 1.6541188423839313, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 9079.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.756060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 2.7272727272727275, "onNet": 0.5131188118811881, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1043.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.600129894889314, "projectedAttempts": 0.18409931676578872, "onNet": 0.48958446349137463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6075269070510232, "ppAdjusted": 0.053887447570470995, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6614143546214943, "baseline": 2.073170731707317, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482659", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8261169054558235, "adjustedSOG": 1.751093130361759, "reductionPct": 4.108377446696798, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6075269070510232, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5380307489794685, "afterRecentDefense": 1.55443318065535, "afterRecentZones": 1.6075269070510232, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5544331806553497, "adjusted": 1.4872323558600327, "playerFactor": 0.9567682769310256, "defenseFactor": 0.9669717961405245, "oldChartFactor": 1.1122815329599673, "newChartFactor": 1.1122815329599673, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7306454208916787, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8434201266713582, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.053887447570470995, "afterPlayerForm": 0.04947372609741303, "afterRecentDefense": 0.053526533980822626, "afterRecentZones": 0.053887447570470995, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.053526533980822626, "adjusted": 0.0491423736046874, "playerFactor": 0.9180936995153474, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.0938407483420902, "newChartFactor": 1.0715148844495506, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.633333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.751093130361759, "adjustedSOG": 1.7160712677545238, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 122, "beforeSOG": 1.7160712677545238, "adjustedSOG": 1.7160712677545238 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 273.0, "goalExpected": 0.20780723390438238, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20753303896454495, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1876363822174849, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02227765340074017 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861288245618677, "modelSOG": 1.7160712677545238, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 274.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12408759124087591, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12529756215406065, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.54411838456786, "btb": { "id": "8482659", "name": "Josh Doan", "score": 56.54411838456786, "components": { "Goal model": 69.15167095115682, "SOG model": 68.89460154241645, "Unit attack": 65.47619047619048, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 58.61182519280206, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 49.30966469428008, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.833124614857099, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Doan", "Noah Ostlund", "Jack Quinn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 111 } }, { "id": "8482660", "name": "Kent Johnson", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 17.462962962962962, "currentFiveTOI": 13.54814814814815, "ppShare": 0.6824349101576824, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.446296296296296, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.037, "currentIXG": 0.22633333333333333, "priorTOI": 13.240570175438597, "priorPPTOI": 1.5605263157894735, "deploymentChange": 4.222392787524365, "ppTOIChange": 1.8857699805068227, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1340573620537848, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.2587999273429712, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2556972394542064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2280225408246117, "goalProbability": 0.22562361607872278, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23989247458889307, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9305163355305974, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.90486604702023, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.606663084363246, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.54814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6824349101576824, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8334468703280584, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9983998478176945, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1861.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.247710137102528, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.118043844856661, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.372587719298247, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36027354294421726, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.076659038901602, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.180491121249464, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9453115768154784, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.960403649644665, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.4048680150839905, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.26618705035971, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Valeri Nichushkin", "Adam Fantilli", "Kent Johnson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": 6.016370708315463, "index": 106.01637070831546, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.87878787878788, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.545454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.60606060606061, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.151515151515152, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -1.8229474394840537, "index": 98.17705256051595, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.85714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.85714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.016370708315463, "zonePPFit": -1.8229474394840537, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4677513059013454, "attemptProjection": 2.3949029586383106, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7316.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.54814814814815, "projectedAttempts": 3.333333333333334, "onNet": 0.4631188118811881, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1861.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.8334468703280584, "projectedAttempts": 0.9887450283489888, "onNet": 0.5423860707164049, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6009481206488496, "ppAdjusted": 0.6081567893987561, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.431327132269828, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482660", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.058796279361897, "adjustedSOG": 1.9699146280924464, "reductionPct": 4.317165916823895, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6009481206488496, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5885288711062497, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4850507805727524, "afterRecentZones": 1.6009481206488496, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4850507805727524, "adjusted": 1.4735305970080963, "playerFactor": 0.9922425659005324, "defenseFactor": 0.927607060727786, "oldChartFactor": 1.180491121249464, "newChartFactor": 1.180491121249464, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9514427375436886, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6547669476567686, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6081567893987561, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5874382275904256, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6081567893987561, "afterRecentZones": 0.6081567893987561, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6081567893987561, "adjusted": 0.5874382275904256, "playerFactor": 0.9659322033898305, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9453115768154784, "newChartFactor": 0.9453115768154784, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.416666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7987124463519313, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9699146280924464, "adjustedSOG": 1.9305163355305974, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 92, "beforeSOG": 1.9305163355305974, "adjustedSOG": 1.9305163355305974 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.3174303771165242, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32289043266854955, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2719826343219045, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.39641830811053547 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858478253201172, "modelSOG": 1.9305163355305974, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 76, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 257.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13618677042801555, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1340573620537848, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.55975988098921, "btb": { "id": "8482660", "name": "Kent Johnson", "score": 55.55975988098921, "components": { "Goal model": 81.23393316195373, "SOG model": 76.60668380462725, "Unit attack": 47.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 71.2082262210797, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 47.24317077258254, "Goalie H2H": 48.6549598356062 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4151410858837794, "unitPlayers": [ "Valeri Nichushkin", "Adam Fantilli", "Kent Johnson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 117 } }, { "id": "8482667", "name": "William Eklund", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 2.269230769230769, "currentTOI": 13.925, "currentFiveTOI": 10.8875, "ppShare": 0.3549618320610687, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.325, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.658, "currentIXG": 0.6645, "priorTOI": 18.540811965811965, "priorPPTOI": 2.703846153846154, "deploymentChange": -4.6158119658119645, "ppTOIChange": -0.37884615384615383, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020715", "date": "20260111", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020586", "date": "20251223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020400", "date": "20251129", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020020", "date": "20251009", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020649", "date": "20250107", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10496412171693294, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.20405254645748389, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20810586737963077, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18458047734574545, "goalProbability": 0.1878789449673475, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3298467621602047, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9440218535603284, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.266360505166475, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.903225806451612, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.8875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3549618320610687, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6912831522802896, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 558.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1572.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.783952889216047, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.672830725462305, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.513888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5380527206915929, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7765232719049138, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7686404121743509, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8930017626906508, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.266360505166475, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.903225806451612, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020715", "date": "20260111", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020586", "date": "20251223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020400", "date": "20251129", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020020", "date": "20251009", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020649", "date": "20250107", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020134", "date": "20241026", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 180, "fitPct": -7.449224269836208, "index": 92.55077573016379, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.222222222222221, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 62.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -7.711986260854971, "index": 92.28801373914503, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.106382978723403, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.57446808510638, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.1063829787234045, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.808510638297872, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.449224269836208, "zonePPFit": -7.711986260854971, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.898661929936674, "attemptProjection": 1.8596824922382162, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2613.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.8875, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5126730564430245, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 558.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6912831522802896, "projectedAttempts": 0.7274336138839955, "onNet": 0.5569419687066747, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.273772629125789, "ppAdjusted": 0.3553995819616561, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8791722110874451, "baseline": 2.269230769230769, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482667", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.035195634344775, "adjustedSOG": 1.9836957689391106, "reductionPct": 2.530462651186083, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.273772629125789, "afterPlayerForm": 1.273772629125789, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1901467324567228, "afterRecentZones": 1.273772629125789, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1901467324567225, "adjusted": 1.1901467324567225, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.914945757630518, "oldChartFactor": 0.7765232719049138, "newChartFactor": 0.7765232719049138, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 43.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6086721404650821, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3553995819616561, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3553995819616561, "afterRecentDefense": 0.35319236962128253, "afterRecentZones": 0.3553995819616561, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3531923696212826, "adjusted": 0.3531923696212826, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 0.7686404121743509, "newChartFactor": 0.7686404121743509, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9836957689391106, "adjustedSOG": 1.9440218535603284, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.9440218535603284, "adjustedSOG": 1.9440218535603284 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.2042534973106972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1976126561222067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18474432013182446, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5432000059951564 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869321190299693, "modelSOG": 1.9440218535603284, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 78, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 337.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09792284866468842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10496412171693294, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482671", "name": "Owen Power", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.4814814814814814, "currentTOI": 27.006060606060604, "currentFiveTOI": 21.33939393939394, "ppShare": 0.4772196261682243, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.475757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.216, "currentIXG": 0.11054545454545454, "priorTOI": 21.65267489711934, "priorPPTOI": 0.9152263374485597, "deploymentChange": 5.353385708941264, "ppTOIChange": 1.5605312383090162, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06090934388394005, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.09091183754295817, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08925089992239187, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08690179166764501, "goalProbability": 0.08538393231624933, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15178593513956867, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.492576208277444, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8117012212439647, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.406364749082007, "Current_5v5_Min": 21.33939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4772196261682243, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5068190299608233, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1634.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.43952179225139, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.66546762589928, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.019958847736625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19095515797663007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1197390538226102, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0519139852391144, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1210086610470278, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.214800492177887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.556962025316456, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Olen Zellweger", "Owen Power" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": 3.9913017940870077, "index": 103.99130179408701, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.546162835995325, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 86 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.0323334631866, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.443319049474095, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.41566030385664, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.238021036229061, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3245033112582782, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": 1.7304661746371437, "index": 101.73046617463714, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 85.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.9913017940870077, "zonePPFit": 1.7304661746371437, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5381951104054712, "attemptProjection": 1.583791417757381, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 14084.0, "expectedMinutes": 21.33939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 2.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.37751901845690916, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1634.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5068190299608233, "projectedAttempts": 0.3681986335315775, "onNet": 0.4279835390946502, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.181772269909946, "ppAdjusted": 0.19740281235329837, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5609932640814261, "baseline": 1.4814814814814814, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482671", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5291885510414482, "adjustedSOG": 1.5230369472218817, "reductionPct": 0.402278961307756, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.181772269909946, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1728417110398206, "afterRecentDefense": 1.181772269909946, "afterRecentZones": 1.181772269909946, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.181772269909946, "adjusted": 1.1728417110398206, "playerFactor": 0.9924430796884361, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1197390538226102, "newChartFactor": 1.1197390538226102, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 106.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9606719675709385, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.19740281235329837, "afterPlayerForm": 0.19740281235329837, "afterRecentDefense": 0.19608069819081292, "afterRecentZones": 0.19740281235329837, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1960806981908129, "adjusted": 0.1960806981908129, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.0519139852391144, "newChartFactor": 1.0519139852391144, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.438380281690141, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5230369472218817, "adjustedSOG": 1.492576208277444, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 165, "beforeSOG": 1.492576208277444, "adjustedSOG": 1.492576208277444 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.07980469494350882, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07969939522358258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07670334671633403, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.009722799795024162 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057800946125935795, "modelSOG": 1.492576208277444, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 274.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06204379562043796, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06090934388394005, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.41881270278639, "btb": { "id": "8482671", "name": "Owen Power", "score": 45.41881270278639, "components": { "Goal model": 29.30591259640103, "SOG model": 57.840616966580974, "Unit attack": 79.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 29.30591259640103, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 41.49369149369149, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1502326985700186, "unitPlayers": [ "Olen Zellweger", "Owen Power" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 214 } }, { "id": "8482684", "name": "Luke Hughes", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.909090909090909, "priorSOG": 2.2058823529411766, "currentTOI": 24.08939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 18.62121212121212, "ppShare": 0.6622558286074354, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1848484848484846, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.187, "currentIXG": 0.1988181818181818, "priorTOI": 23.011274509803922, "priorPPTOI": 1.9120098039215687, "deploymentChange": 1.0781194295900178, "ppTOIChange": 1.2728386809269159, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.054060159940916966, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 303.0, "goalExpected": 0.12571496107051078, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12479123388737672, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11813382284666686, "goalProbability": 0.11731884273525248, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08149801114143845, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.3254640979217642, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.90886899918633, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.56327307326356, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.62121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6622558286074354, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6594651620171463, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.002130574452003, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2102.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3174.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.386258136293303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.15254454557108, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.16642156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.492977132369125, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9002267573696145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7548171129814887, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.323281061519904, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.163749294184077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": -8.172762900617045, "index": 91.82723709938296, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.629959213941426, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 107 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.96032628846867, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.270671116054876, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.194660734149053, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.0893585465331865, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.8550241008527997, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -11.495257103338346, "index": 88.50474289666165, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.82857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.846770414184746, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.54991716584817, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.857230231644394, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.17142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.839139199755394, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.284202354053477, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.402425410874443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.172762900617045, "zonePPFit": -11.495257103338346, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5303044623933095, "attemptProjection": 2.4382608966843193, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 54.0, "sog": 27.0, "seconds": 12290.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.62121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 4.909090909090908, "onNet": 0.4515053799371784, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2102.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6594651620171463, "projectedAttempts": 1.6713066391705331, "onNet": 0.3956228956228956, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.988398246288583, "ppAdjusted": 0.4958844332502313, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4842826795388144, "baseline": 2.2058823529411766, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482684", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3729225488997594, "adjustedSOG": 2.3729225488997594, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3729225488997594, "adjustedSOG": 2.3254640979217642, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 47, "beforeSOG": 2.3254640979217642, "adjustedSOG": 2.3254640979217642 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 299.0, "goalExpected": 0.16700309338026093, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1706493138661167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1538030062759376, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.30798025818088715 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786244456189535, "modelSOG": 2.3254640979217642, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 303.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.052805280528052806, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.054060159940916966, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.29149843455396, "btb": { "id": "8482684", "name": "Luke Hughes", "score": 51.29149843455396, "components": { "Goal model": 42.159383033419026, "SOG model": 88.17480719794345, "Unit attack": 67.1875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 65.51724137931035, "Shot quality": 65.03856041131105, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 37.99348799348799, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.850812331822787, "unitPlayers": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 159 } }, { "id": "8482691", "name": "Aatu Rty", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9848484848484849, "currentTOI": 10.1625, "currentFiveTOI": 9.541666666666666, "ppShare": 0.02851182197496523, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.17083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.956, "currentIXG": 0.239, "priorTOI": 12.021212121212121, "priorPPTOI": 0.09621212121212121, "deploymentChange": -1.8587121212121218, "ppTOIChange": 0.07462121212121213, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.516666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12246943144770321, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.12566383109255178, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1244504710329403, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11808873189572638, "goalProbability": 0.11701800653055486, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10707253651715265, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0260832405857345, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.716157205240175, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.541666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02851182197496523, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14246440277386038, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.004511900267846, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 41.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1438.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.021153935561858, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.89763779527559, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.863131313131314, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025499285510705582, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0157202178719733, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0537166699976206, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0702813256253134, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.716157205240175, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": 1.7905556665873519, "index": 101.79055566658735, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.8411214953271, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.345794392523365, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.962616822429908, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.233644859813085, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.869158878504674, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7476635514018692, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": -13.056094435693808, "index": 86.94390556430619, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.7905556665873519, "zonePPFit": -13.056094435693808, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0527109942189852, "attemptProjection": 1.1676229913086327, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2290.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.541666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.5002284717318158, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 41.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.14246440277386038, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8601669927638089, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.110166992763809, "baseline": 0.9848484848484849, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482691", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0600395895976793, "adjustedSOG": 1.0470237148834025, "reductionPct": 1.2278668496915945, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8601669927638089, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8601669927638089, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8384738682400144, "afterRecentZones": 0.8601669927638089, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8384738682400144, "adjusted": 0.8384738682400144, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9747803336953302, "oldChartFactor": 1.0537166699976206, "newChartFactor": 1.0537166699976206, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 38.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8805582830691543, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.6833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0470237148834025, "adjustedSOG": 1.0260832405857345, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0260832405857345, "adjustedSOG": 1.0260832405857345 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.12120724239609176, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12387879809019516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11414964518192523, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23634401228815882 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286129458388375, "modelSOG": 1.0260832405857345, "historyGames": 103, "seasonGames": { "2024": 33, "2025": 66, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 103.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11650485436893204, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12246943144770321, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482699", "name": "Dylan Guenther", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.9166666666666665, "priorSOG": 3.0632911392405062, "currentTOI": 16.962500000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 12.6875, "ppShare": 0.758686730506156, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 35.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.851388888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.18, "currentIXG": 0.34833333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.396413502109702, "priorPPTOI": 3.1, "deploymentChange": -0.43391350210970003, "ppTOIChange": 0.7513888888888891, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14604343423043098, "goalHistoryGoals": 72.0, "goalHistoryShots": 481.0, "goalExpected": 0.41159556490133553, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3877352940947471, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3374078025891961, "goalProbability": 0.32140805321242955, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.599974937676657, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.818309272650421, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.093596059113301, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.069960331770645, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.6875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.758686730506156, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9974928239035625, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9523162012055845, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2773.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.629214382958276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.719885667619437, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.171940928270041, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6509491942092326, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9189926837728758, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1275578100654242, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1061112845194885, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.429829389102917, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.94942626434339, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Cooley", "Vincent Trocheck", "Dylan Guenther" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 274, "fitPct": -2.700243874237472, "index": 97.29975612576253, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 28.11396279726866, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.543677890275491, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.604426654108785, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.868377678361195, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.122674829291267, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.746880150694608, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": 4.251927002180807, "index": 104.2519270021808, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 34.487942373943, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.754462887566552, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.142812402129659, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 46.51424992170373, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.1005324146570623, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.700243874237472, "zonePPFit": 4.251927002180807, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.901435398756406, "attemptProjection": 3.115643342652025, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9135.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.6875, "projectedAttempts": 3.7500000000000004, "onNet": 0.4531526836894216, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 2773.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9974928239035625, "projectedAttempts": 3.4597846294152723, "onNet": 0.4717599122394609, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.415741985609543, "ppAdjusted": 1.5927973850946726, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.0085393707042156, "baseline": 3.0632911392405062, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482699", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.030440078118732, "adjustedSOG": 3.030440078118732, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.030440078118732, "adjustedSOG": 3.030440078118732, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 18, "beforeSOG": 3.030440078118732, "adjustedSOG": 2.818309272650421 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 476.0, "goalExpected": 0.4230689376640135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4230689376640135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34496652492234303, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851235287880394, "modelSOG": 2.818309272650421, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 72.0, "historyShots": 481.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1496881496881497, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14604343423043098, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.13556601278187, "btb": { "id": "8482699", "name": "Dylan Guenther", "score": 69.13556601278187, "components": { "Goal model": 96.65809768637533, "SOG model": 95.62982005141389, "Unit attack": 58.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.37931034482759, "Shot quality": 91.00257069408741, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 52.61752136752137, "Goalie H2H": 47.24972497249725 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.650605413660558, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Cooley", "Vincent Trocheck", "Dylan Guenther" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 19 } }, { "id": "8482700", "name": "Nolan Allan", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.261904761904763, "currentFiveTOI": 14.088095238095237, "ppShare": 0.004163197335553705, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.023809523809523808, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.595, "currentIXG": 0.08499999999999999, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020558", "date": "20241227", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020085", "date": "20241019", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07023358830916772, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.07521840911012333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07521840911012333, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07245911917446964, "goalProbability": 0.07245911917446964, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0709748842535636, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.258914990704749, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.088095238095237, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004163197335553705, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02067852757382316, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 10.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2402.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8205492205035538, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.430204859456884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020558", "date": "20241227", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020085", "date": "20241019", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -5.981692649881538, "index": 94.01830735011846, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.66666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.981692649881538, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9928571428571429, "attemptProjection": 1.1490926256499845, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5917.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.088095238095237, "projectedAttempts": 2.7142857142857144, "onNet": 0.39067477555748625, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 10.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02067852757382316, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9281177413964208, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0709748842535638, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482700", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0709748842535638, "adjustedSOG": 1.0709748842535636, "reductionPct": 2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9281177413964208, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9281177413964208, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9281177413964208, "afterRecentZones": 0.9281177413964208, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9281177413964208, "adjusted": 0.9281177413964208, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8205492205035538, "newChartFactor": 0.8146638386428489, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.11301305443738, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0709748842535636, "adjustedSOG": 1.0709748842535636, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0709748842535636, "adjustedSOG": 1.0709748842535636 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.06052346344422404, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056965455771516516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05872831671633744, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3355016919817433 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779198538645964, "modelSOG": 1.0709748842535636, "historyGames": 50, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 25.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07023358830916772, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482702", "name": "Logan Stankoven", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 3.230769230769231, "priorSOG": 2.049382716049383, "currentTOI": 17.51025641025641, "currentFiveTOI": 13.726923076923075, "ppShare": 0.30077590141487903, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 42.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.6897435897435895, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.23 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.62, "currentIXG": 0.5092307692307693, "priorTOI": 15.450205761316873, "priorPPTOI": 1.5213991769547326, "deploymentChange": 2.060050648939537, "ppTOIChange": 0.16834441278885692, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020262", "date": "20241114", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11129059272178313, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 402.0, "goalExpected": 0.2929197696332107, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2796055920226651, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2539180032716939, "goalProbability": 0.24391811261580298, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9999890655890908, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.632026323783582, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.095544970579994, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.657056145675266, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.726923076923075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30077590141487903, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.550650802427959, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3076923076923077, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.0005859203928877, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1318.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.502852361755534, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.711387611576955, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.525720164609053, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3443187921753721, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.012869350355194, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0215416289610177, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8844629471900015, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0346882060865326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8942009845477773, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.85963711057857, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.106583072100314, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 5.333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020262", "date": "20241114", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020109", "date": "20241024", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Logan Stankoven", "Jackson Blake" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 48, "priorAttempts": 206, "fitPct": 0.7180542987005936, "index": 100.7180542987006, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.04368932038835, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.402912621359228, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.788834951456312, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.327669902912621, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.995145631067961, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.441747572815535, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": -3.8512350936666166, "index": 96.14876490633338, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 46.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.7180542987005936, "zonePPFit": -3.8512350936666166, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.249821605287094, "attemptProjection": 3.000747969132828, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 59.0, "sog": 33.0, "seconds": 10707.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.726923076923075, "projectedAttempts": 4.538461538461537, "onNet": 0.5368167237496652, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1318.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.550650802427959, "projectedAttempts": 0.49413758499221766, "onNet": 0.5442843608089124, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.5226720855989333, "ppAdjusted": 0.2949203939187201, "other": 0.3076923076923077 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.125284787209961, "baseline": 2.049382716049383, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482702", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.6949239587457297, "adjustedSOG": 2.632026323783582, "reductionPct": 2.3339298594317825, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.5226720855989333, "afterPlayerForm": 2.5226720855989333, "afterRecentDefense": 2.430444866626212, "afterRecentZones": 2.519736958441161, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.427617045771403, "adjusted": 2.427617045771403, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9634406629782704, "oldChartFactor": 1.0215416289610177, "newChartFactor": 1.0192584870863772, "playerRecentAttempts": 34.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4194008726064733, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8277193024531656, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2949203939187201, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2949203939187201, "afterRecentDefense": 0.28520121792846065, "afterRecentZones": 0.2948633378353065, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.28514604214267125, "adjusted": 0.28514604214267125, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 0.8844629471900015, "newChartFactor": 0.8841431632865699, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0177606177606178, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.632026323783582, "adjustedSOG": 2.632026323783582, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 31, "beforeSOG": 2.632026323783582, "adjustedSOG": 2.632026323783582 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 392.0, "goalExpected": 0.3178836849640097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31106094763156117, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2723125755187553, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.49817955735884656 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12867877546335132, "modelSOG": 2.632026323783582, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 402.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10696517412935323, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11129059272178313, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 74.51579406673453, "btb": { "id": "8482702", "name": "Logan Stankoven", "score": 74.51579406673453, "components": { "Goal model": 86.37532133676092, "SOG model": 94.08740359897172, "Unit attack": 96.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 98.20051413881748, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 54.967948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 51.466108149276465 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.142563322930972, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Logan Stankoven", "Jackson Blake" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 3 } }, { "id": "8482705", "name": "Cole Sillinger", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.6790123456790123, "currentTOI": 15.107407407407408, "currentFiveTOI": 13.346296296296295, "ppShare": 0.06637330399706637, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3351851851851852, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.527, "currentIXG": 0.2807777777777778, "priorTOI": 15.22098765432099, "priorPPTOI": 0.2726337448559671, "deploymentChange": -0.11358024691358182, "ppTOIChange": 0.06255144032921811, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09249923823342027, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.12645626434057475, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12494021167450127, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.118787310881215, "goalProbability": 0.11745033282600374, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13369780552112548, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.367106008175597, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.494657971416678, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.346296296296295, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06637330399706637, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3728392711065978, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0031899881419952, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.3195169564625235, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.867924528301886, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.596913580246913, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06294204986586076, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2108787990011867, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.489994591671174, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sean Monahan", "Cole Sillinger", "Conor Garland" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": 7.029293300039555, "index": 107.02929330003955, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.746987951807229, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.67469879518072, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.12048192771084, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.638554216867476, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3734939759036147, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4457831325301207, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": 9.369368548854467, "index": 109.36936854885447, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 65.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.029293300039555, "zonePPFit": 9.369368548854467, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5166666666666662, "attemptProjection": 1.2162022563494974, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7207.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.346296296296295, "projectedAttempts": 1.7777777777777777, "onNet": 0.5418239907057798, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 181.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3728392711065978, "projectedAttempts": 0.12359312854362357, "onNet": 0.5504875747090281, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2233453674003036, "ppAdjusted": 0.03197798299666686, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.366434461508082, "baseline": 1.6790123456790123, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482705", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.491465615176454, "adjustedSOG": 1.3950061307914257, "reductionPct": 6.4674293127177656, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2233453674003036, "afterPlayerForm": 1.123232138373855, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1572868491945247, "afterRecentZones": 1.2233453674003036, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1572868491945245, "adjusted": 1.0625795600919232, "playerFactor": 0.9181643780290791, "defenseFactor": 0.9460017424628352, "oldChartFactor": 1.2108787990011867, "newChartFactor": 1.2108787990011867, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.47067659352142116, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7424889297466817, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.03197798299666686, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03197798299666686, "afterRecentDefense": 0.03197798299666686, "afterRecentZones": 0.03197798299666686, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.03197798299666686, "adjusted": 0.03197798299666686, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.0166666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3950061307914257, "adjustedSOG": 1.367106008175597, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 198, "beforeSOG": 1.367106008175597, "adjustedSOG": 1.367106008175597 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.15777998189493517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16049392337076201, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14596233495239794, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2314665886496703 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12872212813999437, "modelSOG": 1.367106008175597, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 277.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07942238267148015, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09249923823342027, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.000053985679116, "btb": { "id": "8482705", "name": "Cole Sillinger", "score": 41.000053985679116, "components": { "Goal model": 42.9305912596401, "SOG model": 49.3573264781491, "Unit attack": 55.95238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 80.97686375321337, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 30.584883526059997, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.591601093172376, "unitPlayers": [ "Sean Monahan", "Cole Sillinger", "Conor Garland" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 258 } }, { "id": "8482715", "name": "Ryan Ufko", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.6111111111111112, "currentTOI": 15.45, "currentFiveTOI": 12.45, "ppShare": 0.3625, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 18, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.022, "currentIXG": 0.022, "priorTOI": 13.883333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 1.512962962962963, "deploymentChange": 1.5666666666666664, "ppTOIChange": 1.3870370370370368, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06946219868517166, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.05199172997300606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05199172997300606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05066328214929152, "goalProbability": 0.05066328214929152, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7484895519741864, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.45, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9058712121212122, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 174.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 480.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.196963917918987, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.406364749082007, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.137962962962963, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37468428623521555, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9492176545515454, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8972008140715854, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": -1.6927448482818193, "index": 98.30725515171818, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.46153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.6927448482818193, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8972008140715854, "attemptProjection": 0.782949544360888, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 747.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.45, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.40301075987435675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 174.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.9058712121212122, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8400751792162366, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8400751792162366, "baseline": 0.6111111111111112, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 18, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482715", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7484895519741864, "adjustedSOG": 0.7484895519741864, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7484895519741864, "adjustedSOG": 0.7484895519741864, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7484895519741864, "adjustedSOG": 0.7484895519741864 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.05515116801027188, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05515116801027188, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05365791950919987, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057797662527392255, "modelSOG": 0.7484895519741864, "historyGames": 20, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 18, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06946219868517166, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482720", "name": "Matthew Knies", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 1.7721518987341771, "currentTOI": 18.44814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 14.464814814814815, "ppShare": 0.6685001833516685, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3759259259259258, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.194, "currentIXG": 0.24377777777777776, "priorTOI": 18.792194092827003, "priorPPTOI": 2.585654008438819, "deploymentChange": -0.34404594467885374, "ppTOIChange": 0.7902719174871069, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020954", "date": "20260302", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020686", "date": "20260108", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020188", "date": "20251101", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021130", "date": "20250325", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020644", "date": "20250107", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16344159985862972, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 309.0, "goalExpected": 0.28407875019426676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28067300079266394, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.247292633479197, "goalProbability": 0.24472473048115662, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.25679029980403834, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.738105540082716, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.069773396492127, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.873834339001645, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.464814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6685001833516685, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7551712222504303, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0031899881419952, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1823.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.314606741573034, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.868146214099216, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.082278481012658, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6949012236720229, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0986675273179953, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0848579514246826, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9053511697718775, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9198052673681598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.505355404089581, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.6410670978173, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020954", "date": "20260302", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020686", "date": "20260108", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020188", "date": "20251101", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021130", "date": "20250325", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020644", "date": "20250107", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020635", "date": "20250105", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Knies", "Charlie Coyle", "Mathieu Olivier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": 2.828598380822754, "index": 102.82859838082275, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.760330578512395, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.396694214876034, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.768595041322314, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.735537190082646, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.892561983471074, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.446280991735537, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": -3.1549610076040864, "index": 96.84503899239591, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.8888888888888888, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 71.3015873015873, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.46031746031746, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.828598380822754, "zonePPFit": -3.1549610076040864, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.085074719891342, "attemptProjection": 1.5834835027198064, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7811.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.464814814814815, "projectedAttempts": 1.4444444444444444, "onNet": 0.5676251331203407, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1823.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7551712222504303, "projectedAttempts": 1.1123381568926123, "onNet": 0.5605909544094988, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1458799522779044, "ppAdjusted": 0.5772880479165587, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8342791113055743, "baseline": 1.7721518987341771, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482720", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020954", "date": "20260302", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020686", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8094282262770154, "adjustedSOG": 1.773577081717057, "reductionPct": 1.9813521221410224, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1458799522779044, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1458799522779044, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0951691368100702, "afterRecentZones": 1.1431011272574256, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0925132884439528, "adjusted": 1.0925132884439528, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9557450888576716, "oldChartFactor": 1.0848579514246826, "newChartFactor": 1.0805683587334953, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2105698197034662, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7889537542135877, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5772880479165587, "afterPlayerForm": 0.57090280415058, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5772880479165589, "afterRecentZones": 0.5772880479165587, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5772880479165587, "adjusted": 0.57090280415058, "playerFactor": 0.9889392413561598, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9053511697718775, "newChartFactor": 0.9053511697718775, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9325762226314713, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.773577081717057, "adjustedSOG": 1.738105540082716, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 117, "beforeSOG": 1.738105540082716, "adjustedSOG": 1.738105540082716 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.31435168316113893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3197587827226986, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.269737837911287, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.39379441939131343 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847614342179559, "modelSOG": 1.738105540082716, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 309.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17475728155339806, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16344159985862972, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.41435225120267, "btb": { "id": "8482720", "name": "Matthew Knies", "score": 55.41435225120267, "components": { "Goal model": 84.06169665809769, "SOG model": 70.17994858611826, "Unit attack": 42.857142857142854, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.293059125964, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 45.032051282051285, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3449999816851106, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Knies", "Charlie Coyle", "Mathieu Olivier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 120 } }, { "id": "8482726", "name": "Samuel Helenius", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 0.7169811320754716, "currentTOI": 9.102083333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.058333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.681, "currentIXG": 0.085125, "priorTOI": 7.979559748427674, "priorPPTOI": 0.019496855345911952, "deploymentChange": 1.1225235849056592, "ppTOIChange": -0.019496855345911952, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.909090909090908, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12563593136297962, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.10310288592256968, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10442375838461254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09796583790985049, "goalProbability": 0.09915652344939105, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11906855395405619, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8206480805613734, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.795768169273229, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.058333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9922586224939202, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1968.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.435689593515318, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 7.914150943396226, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004574544012260211, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0258048859407862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.574912891986063, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Andre Lee", "Samuel Helenius", "Corey Perry" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": 12.292829642348224, "index": 112.29282964234822, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.516129032258065, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.451612903225806, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.75806451612903, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.04838709677419, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6451612903225806, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.292829642348224, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0062499999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.8290951591421379, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 4348.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.058333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.375, "onNet": 0.5330003752248115, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.917672579571069, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.917672579571069, "baseline": 0.7169811320754716, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482726", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.83739600057283, "adjustedSOG": 0.83739600057283, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.83739600057283, "adjustedSOG": 0.8206480805613734, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 340, "beforeSOG": 0.8206480805613734, "adjustedSOG": 0.8206480805613734 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.10311141577289526, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10311141577289526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0979735320934265, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860652057158453, "modelSOG": 0.8206480805613734, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 53, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 74.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12162162162162163, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12563593136297962, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.01108991333133, "btb": { "id": "8482726", "name": "Samuel Helenius", "score": 28.01108991333133, "components": { "Goal model": 34.447300771208226, "SOG model": 12.853470437017995, "Unit attack": 1.1904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 25.70694087403599, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 49.805749805749805, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7375680777283296, "unitPlayers": [ "Andre Lee", "Samuel Helenius", "Corey Perry" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 373 } }, { "id": "8482730", "name": "Brandt Clarke", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.9390243902439024, "currentTOI": 19.696666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.55, "ppShare": 0.6464, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6933333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.773, "currentIXG": 0.07730000000000001, "priorTOI": 19.801829268292682, "priorPPTOI": 2.2243902439024392, "deploymentChange": -0.10516260162601654, "ppTOIChange": 0.46894308943089413, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05313945210240427, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 310.0, "goalExpected": 0.10737784396557738, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1087534838020237, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10181376538174157, "goalProbability": 0.10304849667913459, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12347312973930158, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.020680299048833, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.787781350482315, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.227722772277228, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6464, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7604218181818174, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.9957932908613181, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1616.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.009176292777718, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.526315789473685, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.944512195121952, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.521908322682792, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1200159166337764, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9494944502851397, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.967716986972875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.493995196156925, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.6548672566371683, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Erik Gustafsson", "Brandt Clarke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 172, "fitPct": 4.000530554459218, "index": 104.00053055445922, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.04514363885089, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 91 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.3201094391244865, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.558139534883721, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7209302325581395, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.495212038303695, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8604651162790697, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": -1.6835183238286788, "index": 98.31648167617132, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4803770758790336, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.987375656219854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.846333360861777, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.051282051282051, "opponentDeltaPct": -24.88218851439676, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.102564102564102, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.3109835630064879, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -49.60873104992033, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.000530554459218, "zonePPFit": -1.6835183238286788, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2241821937375654, "attemptProjection": 2.063514194266595, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9330.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.55, "projectedAttempts": 2.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.44816101940341735, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1616.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7604218181818174, "projectedAttempts": 0.6149454545454544, "onNet": 0.3948412698412698, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5723004682582076, "ppAdjusted": 0.1715477257438727, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1438481940020804, "baseline": 1.9390243902439024, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482730", "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.4, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.061918672498809, "adjustedSOG": 2.061918672498809, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.061918672498809, "adjustedSOG": 2.020680299048833, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 84, "beforeSOG": 2.020680299048833, "adjustedSOG": 2.020680299048833 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 309.0, "goalExpected": 0.09338051332493495, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09338051332493495, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0891531550146511, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057871753619857504, "modelSOG": 2.020680299048833, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 310.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05161290322580645, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05313945210240427, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.6201671764037, "btb": { "id": "8482730", "name": "Brandt Clarke", "score": 50.6201671764037, "components": { "Goal model": 35.98971722365039, "SOG model": 78.66323907455013, "Unit attack": 82.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 89.65517241379311, "Shot quality": 19.53727506426735, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 63.4377967711301, "Goalie H2H": 54.54545454545455 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1944687225949697, "unitPlayers": [ "Erik Gustafsson", "Brandt Clarke" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 167 } }, { "id": "8482731", "name": "Tyson Hinds", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 16.033333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 14.513636363636364, "ppShare": 0.0030313236780060626, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.013636363636363636, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.46900000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.04263636363636364, "priorTOI": 15.616666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 0.41666666666666785, "ppTOIChange": 0.013636363636363636, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.6 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04628838908551204, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.07206448077505793, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07206448077505793, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06952910360774622, "goalProbability": 0.06952910360774622, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5568586895933616, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.013153773880363, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.513636363636364, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0030313236780060626, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.014258526922723624, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.036892118501957, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.908333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1337565320029581, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.019292604501608, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyson Hinds", "Tristan Luneau" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": 4.458551066765267, "index": 104.45855106676527, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.61904761904761, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.8095238095238, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.458551066765267, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6727272727272724, "attemptProjection": 1.516801692583933, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 9579.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.513636363636364, "projectedAttempts": 3.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.42301834721725357, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.014258526922723624, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5947644826556027, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5947644826556027, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 6, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482731", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5568586895933616, "adjustedSOG": 1.5568586895933616, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5568586895933616, "adjustedSOG": 1.5568586895933616, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 148, "beforeSOG": 1.5568586895933616, "adjustedSOG": 1.5568586895933616 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.07699391971167246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07434529958322134, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07410451669912009, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2455595948802472 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057860486356890055, "modelSOG": 1.5568586895933616, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2025": 6, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 25.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04628838908551204, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.01881055962033, "btb": { "id": "8482731", "name": "Tyson Hinds", "score": 39.01881055962033, "components": { "Goal model": 23.13624678663239, "SOG model": 62.210796915167094, "Unit attack": 81.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 8.483290488431876, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.717948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1551576767116654, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyson Hinds", "Tristan Luneau" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 278 } }, { "id": "8482737", "name": "Zack Bolduc", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.294871794871795, "currentTOI": 13.675757575757576, "currentFiveTOI": 12.018181818181818, "ppShare": 0.3495069033530572, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3424242424242425, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.59, "currentIXG": 0.23545454545454544, "priorTOI": 13.631410256410257, "priorPPTOI": 1.5773504273504273, "deploymentChange": 0.0443473193473185, "ppTOIChange": -0.23492618492618478, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.35 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14075456128330552, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 240.0, "goalExpected": 0.21805360075136615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2285677462584796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19591765890618446, "goalProbability": 0.204327608448951, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8409949542766554, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5491760889544177, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.354009077155824, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.18961625282167, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.018181818181818, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3495069033530572, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4991727930189467, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0162873411382372, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 886.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.207015006327969, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.753454348415064, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.818376068376068, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3320027423556836, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0899863657021664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9919332661828756, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.867811653978499, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0811937358257522, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8601718712466155, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.975103734439834, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.18961625282167, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 149, "fitPct": -0.268891127237481, "index": 99.73110887276252, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.75874249381844, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.101377605086544, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.92794065701165, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.9901095019427775, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.342635111268104, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8791946308724834, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -4.406278200716699, "index": 95.5937217992833, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.48387096774194, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.451612903225794, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.870967741935485, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.32258064516129, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.268891127237481, "zonePPFit": -4.406278200716699, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.819867505359636, "attemptProjection": 1.7305300992917887, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7932.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.018181818181818, "projectedAttempts": 2.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.5168051118210862, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 886.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4991727930189467, "projectedAttempts": 0.6091447014523937, "onNet": 0.5549083269671505, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.307526156627166, "ppAdjusted": 0.28585446388036456, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7751988023257124, "baseline": 1.294871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482737", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5830679993441454, "adjustedSOG": 1.580791927504508, "reductionPct": 0.14377599955153197, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.307526156627166, "afterPlayerForm": 1.307526156627166, "afterRecentDefense": 1.307526156627166, "afterRecentZones": 1.3052383013225803, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3052383013225803, "adjusted": 1.3052383013225803, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9919332661828756, "newChartFactor": 0.9886348752065771, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.097221902017291, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1785179019807128, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.28585446388036456, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2843488661188879, "afterRecentDefense": 0.28585446388036456, "afterRecentZones": 0.28585446388036456, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.28585446388036456, "adjusted": 0.2843488661188879, "playerFactor": 0.9947329919531822, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.867811653978499, "newChartFactor": 0.867811653978499, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9486081370449679, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.580791927504508, "adjustedSOG": 1.5491760889544177, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 153, "beforeSOG": 1.5491760889544177, "adjustedSOG": 1.5491760889544177 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.22355551379102204, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22355551379102204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20032950210553802, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285655083632388, "modelSOG": 1.5491760889544177, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 240.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14583333333333334, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14075456128330552, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.62172815918873, "btb": { "id": "8482737", "name": "Zack Bolduc", "score": 58.62172815918873, "components": { "Goal model": 70.4370179948586, "SOG model": 60.9254498714653, "Unit attack": 83.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 13.793103448275861, "Shot quality": 72.75064267352185, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 45.60778727445394, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2657308895622252, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 93 } }, { "id": "8482740", "name": "Wyatt Johnston", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 20.124074074074073, "currentFiveTOI": 14.988888888888889, "ppShare": 0.7879499217527387, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.72962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.191, "currentIXG": 0.5767777777777777, "priorTOI": 20.123373983739835, "priorPPTOI": 3.3321138211382118, "deploymentChange": 0.0007000903342380127, "ppTOIChange": 0.3975158084914181, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17385549526450558, "goalHistoryGoals": 80.0, "goalHistoryShots": 434.0, "goalExpected": 0.4495875040332519, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4495875040332519, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3621087750827912, "goalProbability": 0.3621087750827912, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.5859838560135513, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.337286879169755, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.299900695134061, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.988888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7879499217527387, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4060926163038836, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 0.988456448075644, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2014.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2556.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.444908448442018, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.030254971330976, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.185365853658537, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6898321916078972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894704201046217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8891546688211067, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9430487991918147, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9219007624361218, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.056890012642225, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.302869287991498, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": -3.694844372629774, "index": 96.30515562737023, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.885714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.342857142857145, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.942857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 61 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.742857142857144, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.942857142857141, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 96, "fitPct": -1.898373360272842, "index": 98.10162663972716, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.262820512820507, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.42307692307692, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.448717948717948, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4166666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.694844372629774, "zonePPFit": -1.898373360272842, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5483803884564673, "attemptProjection": 2.8478006806820972, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8094.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.988888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 3.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.46891278610891873, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2014.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4060926163038836, "projectedAttempts": 1.6235595390524966, "onNet": 0.5155183116076971, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.262023944608388, "ppAdjusted": 0.7693999232942277, "other": 0.6666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6980905345692823, "baseline": 2.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482740", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.623732369522057, "adjustedSOG": 2.5859838560135513, "reductionPct": 1.438733384052504, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.262023944608388, "afterPlayerForm": 1.262023944608388, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2393155499303345, "afterRecentZones": 1.262023944608388, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2393155499303345, "adjusted": 1.2393155499303345, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9673428388564926, "oldChartFactor": 0.8891546688211067, "newChartFactor": 0.8802497591423049, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.113665001086248, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8478682170542635, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7693999232942277, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7520492460715402, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7460175110731553, "afterRecentZones": 0.7693999232942277, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7460175110731553, "adjusted": 0.7291941287914376, "playerFactor": 0.9774490785645005, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.9430487991918147, "newChartFactor": 0.9430487991918147, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.366666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8666092943201378, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5859838560135513, "adjustedSOG": 2.5859838560135513, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 32, "beforeSOG": 2.5859838560135513, "adjustedSOG": 2.5859838560135513 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 79.0, "goalHistoryShots": 432.0, "goalExpected": 0.4345848064944391, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4345848064944391, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3524665370385244, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283883447124599, "modelSOG": 2.5859838560135513, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 80.0, "historyShots": 434.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18433179723502305, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17385549526450558, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 74.8277715596659, "btb": { "id": "8482740", "name": "Wyatt Johnston", "score": 74.8277715596659, "components": { "Goal model": 98.20051413881748, "SOG model": 93.83033419023137, "Unit attack": 78.57142857142857, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 93.10344827586206, "Shot quality": 98.45758354755785, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.55270655270655, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0920001178688867, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 2 } }, { "id": "8482745", "name": "Mason McTavish", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.8181818181818183, "priorSOG": 1.9466666666666668, "currentTOI": 15.825757575757576, "currentFiveTOI": 13.074242424242424, "ppShare": 0.48598130841121495, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.127272727272727, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.989, "currentIXG": 0.45354545454545453, "priorTOI": 15.319777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 1.9164444444444442, "deploymentChange": 0.5059797979797978, "ppTOIChange": 0.2108282828282828, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.8 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12661050606347246, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 357.0, "goalExpected": 0.312448728484768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29655610986496406, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2683468590498543, "goalProbability": 0.25662608451612146, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1720774533732825, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.4677946420033345, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.761154247305598, "Current_PP_SOG60": 20.512820512820515, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.074242424242424, "Current_PP_Share": 0.48598130841121495, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.6346077598414044, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1404.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.712401055408971, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.85343228200371, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.633333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3659892040720211, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9734199749416576, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9543641883427351, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.986859395532194, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.818181818181817, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020987", "date": "20260306", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Connor McMichael", "Mason McTavish", "Jonatan Berggren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 192, "fitPct": -0.8860008352780824, "index": 99.11399916472192, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.862745098039214, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.159313725490197, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.3063725490196, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.71078431372549, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.502450980392156, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4583333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": 10.23133861120553, "index": 110.23133861120553, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.444444444444446, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.777777777777779, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 54.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8860008352780824, "zonePPFit": 10.23133861120553, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.0396148696486796, "attemptProjection": 2.5908117148068803, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 8629.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.074242424242424, "projectedAttempts": 3.6363636363636367, "onNet": 0.51681136543015, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1404.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.6346077598414044, "projectedAttempts": 1.238490827275874, "onNet": 0.5577739109198034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7824020777069562, "ppAdjusted": 0.8509930327026423, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.8152132922277797, "baseline": 1.9466666666666668, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482745", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4677946420033345, "adjustedSOG": 2.4677946420033345, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4677946420033345, "adjustedSOG": 2.4677946420033345, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 35, "beforeSOG": 2.4677946420033345, "adjustedSOG": 2.4677946420033345 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.35272122785709076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34668825955055305, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29722692037045495, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4252622786891924 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286100127100692, "modelSOG": 2.4677946420033345, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 75, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 357.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12605042016806722, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12661050606347246, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.82808772533141, "btb": { "id": "8482745", "name": "Mason McTavish", "score": 67.82808772533141, "components": { "Goal model": 88.94601542416453, "SOG model": 91.51670951156812, "Unit attack": 72.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 51.724137931034484, "Shot quality": 95.88688946015424, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 47.40302432610125, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.941972302418596, "unitPlayers": [ "Connor McMichael", "Mason McTavish", "Jonatan Berggren" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 30 } }, { "id": "8482765", "name": "Isak Rosen", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 0.9459459459459459, "currentTOI": 13.384848484848483, "currentFiveTOI": 11.763636363636364, "ppShare": 0.254421768707483, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.335, "currentIXG": 0.12136363636363635, "priorTOI": 11.504504504504505, "priorPPTOI": 1.5648648648648649, "deploymentChange": 1.8803439803439783, "ppTOIChange": -0.43153153153153156, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020876", "date": "20260202", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 3.1333333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021006", "date": "20250308", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.85 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12649992385575612, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 57.0, "goalExpected": 0.14042402572835902, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14334395249914741, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13101031671685237, "goalProbability": 0.13354400206858877, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2533685351736398, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.110072017817814, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.0278207109737245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.763636363636364, "Current_PP_Share": 0.254421768707483, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3744557823129253, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.010227875253061, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 748.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.479882011337973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.253886010362694, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.773423423423424, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3428939552644648, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9683312445772679, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8111151682685991, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.735805330243338, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020876", "date": "20260202", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 3.1333333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021006", "date": "20250308", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -6.296161057713363, "index": 93.70383894228664, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.551020408163264, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.36734693877551, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.510204081632653, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.296161057713363, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0954545454545455, "attemptProjection": 1.343524252676907, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7764.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.763636363636364, "projectedAttempts": 3.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.4495283736497794, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 748.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3744557823129253, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1285803081566352, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.219489399065726, "baseline": 0.9459459459459459, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482765", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.110072017817814, "adjustedSOG": 1.110072017817814, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.110072017817814, "adjustedSOG": 1.110072017817814, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 269, "beforeSOG": 1.110072017817814, "adjustedSOG": 1.110072017817814 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 55.0, "goalExpected": 0.13090280780199837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13090280780199837, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12269696274196167, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286048804535371, "modelSOG": 1.110072017817814, "historyGames": 56, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 37, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 57.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12280701754385964, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12649992385575612, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.76570436010516, "btb": { "id": "8482765", "name": "Isak Rosen", "score": 43.76570436010516, "components": { "Goal model": 47.81491002570694, "SOG model": 31.105398457583547, "Unit attack": 35.714285714285715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.47557840616967, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 45.845204178537514, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2656322533410593, "unitPlayers": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 228 } }, { "id": "8482775", "name": "Oliver Kapanen", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.5975609756097562, "currentTOI": 12.883333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.3125, "ppShare": 0.4253285543608124, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.755, "currentIXG": 0.18875, "priorTOI": 14.474593495934961, "priorPPTOI": 0.9410569105691058, "deploymentChange": -1.5912601626016283, "ppTOIChange": 0.5422764227642276, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13723725617479166, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.23297899391112495, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24421281455724936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20782978625254547, "goalProbability": 0.2166790855703005, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8849299317755022, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6976366360341117, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.281767955801104, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.3125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4253285543608124, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8244017233264542, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0129869856635516, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 356.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 837.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0762282262848515, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9821539230926488, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0570217745887098, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.693053311793214, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": -0.5948692302450382, "index": 99.40513076975496, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.269461077844312, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.487025948103796, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.371257485029936, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.926147704590818, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.842315369261478, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.10379241516966, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5948692302450382, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.849788105530242, "attemptProjection": 1.8032776396367558, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2715.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.3125, "projectedAttempts": 3.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.52440359497925, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 356.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8244017233264542, "projectedAttempts": 0.30748343651569454, "onNet": 0.5102785993354512, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7546487898806928, "ppAdjusted": 0.07188408270280595, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.826532872583499, "baseline": 1.5975609756097562, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482775", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.734944113794002, "adjustedSOG": 1.732282281667461, "reductionPct": 0.15342466108144714, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7546487898806928, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7546487898806928, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7546487898806928, "afterRecentZones": 1.7502124030031248, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7502124030031248, "adjusted": 1.7502124030031248, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9821539230926488, "newChartFactor": 0.9774428810407146, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1264171989753764, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07188408270280595, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07188408270280595, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07188408270280595, "afterRecentZones": 0.07188408270280595, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07188408270280595, "adjusted": 0.07188408270280595, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.732282281667461, "adjustedSOG": 1.6976366360341117, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 126, "beforeSOG": 1.6976366360341117, "adjustedSOG": 1.6976366360341117 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.2329664757163749, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2329664757163749, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20781986964946575, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858263068397077, "modelSOG": 1.6976366360341117, "historyGames": 104, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 82, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 154.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13723725617479166, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.0257011424799, "btb": { "id": "8482775", "name": "Oliver Kapanen", "score": 61.0257011424799, "components": { "Goal model": 74.293059125964, "SOG model": 67.86632390745501, "Unit attack": 70.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.172413793103445, "Shot quality": 63.753213367609256, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 41.32149901380671, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8697249851059112, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 75 } }, { "id": "8482784", "name": "Zachary Dean", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.972222222222223, "currentFiveTOI": 9.944444444444445, "ppShare": 0.009433962264150943, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027777777777777776, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12860197267120094, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.944444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009433962264150943, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05114351057747284, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.0100944427278242, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1790.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.944444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.500990099009901, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 5.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05114351057747284, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482784", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 29.833333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0759133593803551, "defenseRecentMinutes": 243.15, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9776272800253907, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8545497578560245, "defenseRecentMinutes": 31.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860197267120094, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 0.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12860197267120094, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482803", "name": "Olen Zellweger", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.4, "priorSOG": 1.5657894736842106, "currentTOI": 19.7, "currentFiveTOI": 17.798333333333332, "ppShare": 0.10733566211495713, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5633333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.4889999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.14889999999999998, "priorTOI": 16.97609649122807, "priorPPTOI": 0.7633771929824561, "deploymentChange": 2.7239035087719294, "ppTOIChange": -0.20004385964912275, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021190", "date": "20260401", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020615", "date": "20251229", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020036", "date": "20251011", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021190", "date": "20250401", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020105", "date": "20241022", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05839747520028743, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 273.0, "goalExpected": 0.12460502999191006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12232852576959069, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11715446876225265, "goalProbability": 0.11514237778489823, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20120909773544138, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.133740021542862, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.753534975184943, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.798333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.10733566211495713, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5638307094443963, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 338.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3149.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.4689458857538975, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.205113473139902, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.868640350877193, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14578445624985187, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1054141589017081, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.323699421965317, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021190", "date": "20260401", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020615", "date": "20251229", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020036", "date": "20251011", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021190", "date": "20250401", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020105", "date": "20241022", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020037", "date": "20241012", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Olen Zellweger", "Owen Power" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 173, "fitPct": 3.5138052967236035, "index": 103.5138052967236, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 43.48922753547031, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 78 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.278507619548082, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.335785601681555, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.05675249605886, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.584866001050973, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.254860746190227, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5138052967236035, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7449999999999997, "attemptProjection": 2.4248998226484755, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 48.0, "sog": 23.0, "seconds": 10679.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.798333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 4.8, "onNet": 0.43833223993333215, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 338.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5638307094443963, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.4849499113242377, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5849499113242373, "baseline": 1.5657894736842106, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482803", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020615", "date": "20251229", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020036", "date": "20251011", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1772857362682267, "adjustedSOG": 2.1772857362682267, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.4849499113242377, "afterPlayerForm": 2.4849499113242377, "afterRecentDefense": 2.4849499113242377, "afterRecentZones": 2.4849499113242377, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.4849499113242377, "adjusted": 2.4849499113242377, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1054141589017081, "newChartFactor": 1.1054141589017081, "playerRecentAttempts": 31.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 95.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2032194987206326, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.033333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1772857362682267, "adjustedSOG": 2.133740021542862, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 71, "beforeSOG": 2.133740021542862, "adjustedSOG": 2.133740021542862 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.14235545050845536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14216761708488138, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13268708512751248, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.016292565507319834 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782258249707213, "modelSOG": 2.133740021542862, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 273.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05860805860805861, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05839747520028743, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.15649118474686, "btb": { "id": "8482803", "name": "Olen Zellweger", "score": 49.15649118474686, "components": { "Goal model": 41.90231362467866, "SOG model": 82.0051413881748, "Unit attack": 79.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 47.04370179948586, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 33.707264957264954, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1502326985700186, "unitPlayers": [ "Olen Zellweger", "Owen Power" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 185 } }, { "id": "8482806", "name": "William Trudeau", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.177777777777779, "currentFiveTOI": 9.177777777777779, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.056, "currentIXG": 0.018666666666666668, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.056696191644762334, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.035302321327092524, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.035302321327092524, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03468646273047963, "goalProbability": 0.03468646273047963, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.622657718322317, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.358353510895884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.177777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9896192075616747, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 821.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9452003023431594, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9506087912249143, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8985157168758543, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.358353510895884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -1.6463736258361905, "index": 98.35362637416381, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.6463736258361905, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5990104779172363, "attemptProjection": 0.6463049587273978, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1652.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.177777777777779, "projectedAttempts": 1.666666666666667, "onNet": 0.39921017297211914, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.622657718322317, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.622657718322317, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482806", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.622657718322317, "adjustedSOG": 0.622657718322317, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.622657718322317, "adjustedSOG": 0.622657718322317, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.622657718322317, "adjustedSOG": 0.622657718322317 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.03891483778787749, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03891483778787749, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03816738254803524, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783011547765758, "modelSOG": 0.622657718322317, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.056696191644762334, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482807", "name": "Ethan Del Mastro", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9444444444444444, "currentTOI": 13.404166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.229166666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 18, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.403, "currentIXG": 0.10075, "priorTOI": 14.075925925925926, "priorPPTOI": 0.000925925925925926, "deploymentChange": -0.6717592592592592, "ppTOIChange": -0.000925925925925926, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.3 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05559616263133851, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 40.0, "goalExpected": 0.050339449835808917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.050339449835808917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04909341537417814, "goalProbability": 0.04909341537417814, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9054482801198498, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.535433070866142, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.229166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1049.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.337349397590361, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.064814814814815, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0002139596804868771, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9995072064819917, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0121993614849376, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.535433070866142, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.3 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -0.01642645060027803, "index": 99.98357354939972, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.800000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.01642645060027803, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0121993614849376, "attemptProjection": 0.7467023129886359, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3175.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.229166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.42029051778011495, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8794508372367867, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8794508372367867, "baseline": 0.9444444444444444, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 18, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482807", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9054482801198498, "adjustedSOG": 0.9054482801198498, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9054482801198498, "adjustedSOG": 0.9054482801198498, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9054482801198498, "adjustedSOG": 0.9054482801198498 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 40.0, "goalExpected": 0.04663081663920886, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0481642541575732, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04556030419037909, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14624520625687448 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057834627683873915, "modelSOG": 0.9054482801198498, "historyGames": 46, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 18, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 40.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05559616263133851, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482809", "name": "Jackson Blake", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.8461538461538463, "priorSOG": 2.1481481481481484, "currentTOI": 18.317948717948717, "currentFiveTOI": 13.07051282051282, "ppShare": 0.7884527612962118, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 37.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.42948717948718, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.538, "currentIXG": 0.42600000000000005, "priorTOI": 16.499176954732512, "priorPPTOI": 2.072633744855967, "deploymentChange": 1.8187717632162048, "ppTOIChange": 2.356853434631213, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.65 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11864359297547758, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 354.0, "goalExpected": 0.29038980832064376, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2771906258649336, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25202805494397595, "goalProbability": 0.2420899939113696, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.993806103260636, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.4475810369352553, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.18097106424718, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.461649782923299, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.07051282051282, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7884527612962118, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.064869895590743, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9794663048394392, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3455.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4382.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.863373002278855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.649558224957808, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.814609053497943, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4690726526349097, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9267676767676768, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0292467254523094, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0680572799543298, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9538725965681757, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0798167117377455, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.577941710001209, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.90578612541654, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Logan Stankoven", "Jackson Blake" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 207, "fitPct": 0.9748908484103112, "index": 100.97489084841031, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.534914361001317, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.672815107597714, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.220904699165565, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 91 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.296442687747035, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.899429073342116, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.375494071146244, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": 2.268575998477658, "index": 102.26857599847766, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.5184238580157796, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.707317073170735, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.302734638887358, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.30081300813008, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.878670539472125, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9268292682926833, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.541167070519663, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.39837398373984, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.8782823834766305, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.111181704377515, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9748908484103112, "zonePPFit": 2.268575998477658, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.746224942264294, "attemptProjection": 2.6773283101949756, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 26.0, "seconds": 10195.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.07051282051282, "projectedAttempts": 3.3076923076923075, "onNet": 0.5489194080698392, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 3455.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.064869895590743, "projectedAttempts": 1.76477708925792, "onNet": 0.4861118946873531, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8551821549404721, "ppAdjusted": 0.8565944712891624, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.711776626229635, "baseline": 2.1481481481481484, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482809", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4863252349970404, "adjustedSOG": 2.4475810369352553, "reductionPct": 1.5582916312165906, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8551821549404721, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8478988023222416, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8268348968133306, "afterRecentZones": 1.8550055673647283, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8266610075028642, "adjusted": 1.8194896274870607, "playerFactor": 0.9960740498722271, "defenseFactor": 0.9847199596806971, "oldChartFactor": 1.0292467254523094, "newChartFactor": 1.0290561840899266, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9761377901657481, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279949742198932, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.8565944712891624, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8565944712891624, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8283651843683091, "afterRecentZones": 0.8559204083116281, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.827713335306266, "adjusted": 0.827713335306266, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1.0680572799543298, "newChartFactor": 1.0663400342580514, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.193952483801296, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4475810369352553, "adjustedSOG": 2.4475810369352553, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 39, "beforeSOG": 2.4475810369352553, "adjustedSOG": 2.4475810369352553 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.29364763551364303, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2873450764954569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2544608533161382, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47136428755185644 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286419121086682, "modelSOG": 2.4475810369352553, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 354.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11581920903954802, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11864359297547758, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 72.78179508237822, "btb": { "id": "8482809", "name": "Jackson Blake", "score": 72.78179508237822, "components": { "Goal model": 85.34704370179949, "SOG model": 90.23136246786632, "Unit attack": 96.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.41379310344827, "Shot quality": 95.11568123393316, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 34.56196581196581, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.142563322930972, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Logan Stankoven", "Jackson Blake" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 7 } }, { "id": "8482859", "name": "Zack Ostapchuk", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7457627118644068, "currentTOI": 10.565277777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 8.575000000000001, "ppShare": 0.011992855320234754, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06527777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.438, "currentIXG": 0.11983333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.094350282485877, "priorPPTOI": 0.03474576271186441, "deploymentChange": 0.47092749529190137, "ppTOIChange": 0.030532015065913375, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020654", "date": "20250109", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.05 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10364944773376503, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 82.0, "goalExpected": 0.08176366564514051, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08176366564514051, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07851028735928726, "goalProbability": 0.07851028735928726, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7888480588450355, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.830903790087463, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.575000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011992855320234754, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05956830038068875, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9812928082271114, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 47.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.738819147911516, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 29.26829268292683, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.79858757062147, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006914244041965886, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9098312031494364, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9680821473445134, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8807913448659486, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.286379511059371, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020654", "date": "20250109", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020194", "date": "20241105", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Barclay Goodrow", "Zack Ostapchuk", "Adam Gaudette" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -1.0639284218495533, "index": 98.93607157815045, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.703703703703702, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.185185185185183, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.444444444444446, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.185185185185185, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.481481481481482, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0639284218495533, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9006594540549572, "attemptProjection": 0.8147233489765022, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 6174.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.575000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 1.2500000000000002, "onNet": 0.5463541982879, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 47.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05956830038068875, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.691024734849063, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8576914015157298, "baseline": 0.7457627118644068, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482859", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8129199256552007, "adjustedSOG": 0.7888480588450355, "reductionPct": 2.9611608782702192, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.691024734849063, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6509049568321215, "afterRecentDefense": 0.691024734849063, "afterRecentZones": 0.691024734849063, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.691024734849063, "adjusted": 0.6509049568321215, "playerFactor": 0.9419416180150125, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9680821473445134, "newChartFactor": 0.9680821473445134, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 39.916666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5155741127348643, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2768220310728813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.2833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7888480588450355, "adjustedSOG": 0.7888480588450355, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 349, "beforeSOG": 0.7888480588450355, "adjustedSOG": 0.7888480588450355 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.09703175475544126, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09132752521751514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09247281262818258, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.519153616871354 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864199487545236, "modelSOG": 0.7888480588450355, "historyGames": 127, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 82.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07317073170731707, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10364944773376503, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.08433383240581, "btb": { "id": "8482859", "name": "Zack Ostapchuk", "score": 32.08433383240581, "components": { "Goal model": 27.506426735218508, "SOG model": 10.539845758354756, "Unit attack": 5.9523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 32.904884318766065, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.8021978021978, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9118396407574627, "unitPlayers": [ "Barclay Goodrow", "Zack Ostapchuk", "Adam Gaudette" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 343 } }, { "id": "8482896", "name": "Tyson Kozak", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.6521739130434783, "currentTOI": 10.527777777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 9.811111111111112, "ppShare": 0.0010183299389002036, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 46, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.056, "currentIXG": 0.018666666666666668, "priorTOI": 11.275362318840578, "priorPPTOI": 0.05543478260869565, "deploymentChange": -0.7475845410628015, "ppTOIChange": -0.049879227053140095, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12577852447088725, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 42.0, "goalExpected": 0.08468289246122207, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08313575618382857, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08119640224230924, "goalProbability": 0.07977378765887107, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14226145834381754, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6732698830540249, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0385050962627407, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.811111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010183299389002036, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005349253739019523, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0027135944463237, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 982.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9401678219627874, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.931159420289855, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011566054469054858, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.070626994749305, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0532510811273383, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1276390397038187, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Peyton Krebs", "Tyson Kozak", "Beck Malenstyn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": 1.775036037577948, "index": 101.77503603757795, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 44.8780487804878, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.682926829268293, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.78048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.829268292682928, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 21.95121951219512, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.775036037577948, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3758796799012729, "attemptProjection": 1.0463110396922448, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1766.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.811111111111112, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4734468372984554, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005349253739019523, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7110953597967589, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7110953597967589, "baseline": 0.6521739130434783, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 46, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482896", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6875267810954466, "adjustedSOG": 0.687010084749005, "reductionPct": 0.0751529046793431, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7110953597967589, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7110953597967589, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7110953597967589, "afterRecentZones": 0.7102341992193564, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7102341992193564, "adjusted": 0.7102341992193564, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0532510811273383, "newChartFactor": 1.0484249712965987, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 29.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3936221524642403, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.016666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.687010084749005, "adjustedSOG": 0.6732698830540249, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 365, "beforeSOG": 0.6732698830540249, "adjustedSOG": 0.6732698830540249 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286055047486599, "modelSOG": 0.6732698830540249, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2024": 21, "2025": 46, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 42.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11904761904761904, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12577852447088725, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.363348146803276, "btb": { "id": "8482896", "name": "Tyson Kozak", "score": 36.363348146803276, "components": { "Goal model": 28.53470437017995, "SOG model": 6.426735218508997, "Unit attack": 3.5714285714285716, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 34.70437017994858, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8199101297570588, "unitPlayers": [ "Peyton Krebs", "Tyson Kozak", "Beck Malenstyn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 300 } }, { "id": "8482964", "name": "Arber Xhekaj", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 11.82878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 9.992424242424242, "ppShare": 0.003155818540433925, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.432, "currentIXG": 0.03927272727272727, "priorTOI": 11.422564102564102, "priorPPTOI": 0.008205128205128205, "deploymentChange": 0.4062237762237775, "ppTOIChange": 0.003916083916083916, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.883333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 10.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.036248313880323416, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.02273349657078628, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02382966416447466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022477037715888933, "goalProbability": 0.023547979636081722, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10709419201927889, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6271601113873231, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2752084912812736, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.992424242424242, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003155818540433925, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.013536548921164305, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.267091729883185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.01897435897436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017270259152612098, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1592584036485212, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.883333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 10.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": 5.308613454950702, "index": 105.3086134549507, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.53968253968254, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.308613454950702, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6272727272727272, "attemptProjection": 0.6854121099944624, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6595.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.992424242424242, "projectedAttempts": 1.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.37618202193429784, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.013536548921164305, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6563424186335949, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6563424186335949, "baseline": 0.6153846153846154, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8482964", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6399592973340031, "adjustedSOG": 0.6399592973340031, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6563424186335949, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6563424186335949, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6563424186335949, "afterRecentZones": 0.6563424186335949, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6563424186335949, "adjusted": 0.6563424186335949, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1592584036485212, "newChartFactor": 1.1592584036485212, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4574833401332792, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6399592973340031, "adjustedSOG": 0.6271601113873231, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6271601113873231, "adjustedSOG": 0.6271601113873231 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.022245135547436682, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022245135547436682, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021999537014804803, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05793387484269534, "modelSOG": 0.6271601113873231, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 65, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017391304347826087, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.036248313880323416, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483017", "name": "Frederic Brunet", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.844444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 14.337037037037037, "ppShare": 0.3686949559647718, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7055555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.432, "currentIXG": 0.048, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06165259073270942, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.04491658522049377, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04491658522049377, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.043922770521724594, "goalProbability": 0.043922770521724594, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7285433537615077, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.324980625161457, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.817589576547231, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.337037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3686949559647718, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7246139860606433, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9717479591975333, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 921.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2498.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.011040481766477, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Frederic Brunet", "Mason Lohrei" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -12.26647157327568, "index": 87.73352842672432, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -8.862379870388693, "index": 91.1376201296113, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -12.26647157327568, "zonePPFit": -8.862379870388693, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.774332927880766, "attemptProjection": 0.7178037751421165, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 7742.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.337037037037037, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555556, "onNet": 0.38994624239791487, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 921.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.7246139860606433, "projectedAttempts": 0.22470540534992095, "onNet": 0.4444444444444444, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.495467057079518, "ppAdjusted": 0.13949018332081217, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7460683515114412, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483017", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7460683515114412, "adjustedSOG": 0.7434115854709262, "reductionPct": 0.35610223046357303, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.495467057079518, "afterPlayerForm": 0.495467057079518, "afterRecentDefense": 0.492810291039003, "afterRecentZones": 0.495467057079518, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.492810291039003, "adjusted": 0.492810291039003, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9613156940246455, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0471005917159764, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8211531763947113, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13949018332081217, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13949018332081217, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13949018332081217, "afterRecentZones": 0.13949018332081217, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13949018332081217, "adjusted": 0.13949018332081217, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.916666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9389473684210525, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7434115854709262, "adjustedSOG": 0.7285433537615077, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 357, "beforeSOG": 0.7285433537615077, "adjustedSOG": 0.7285433537615077 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.07616543349398602, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07325972853951404, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07333710720198648, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26965247140824794 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781784980598037, "modelSOG": 0.7285433537615077, "historyGames": 10, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06165259073270942, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 32.69802377892031, "btb": { "id": "8483017", "name": "Frederic Brunet", "score": 32.69802377892031, "components": { "Goal model": 9.511568123393316, "SOG model": 8.483290488431876, "Unit attack": 64.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 14.652956298200515, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7924012418329114, "unitPlayers": [ "Frederic Brunet", "Mason Lohrei" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 338 } }, { "id": "8483395", "name": "Arshdeep Bains", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 0.6428571428571429, "currentTOI": 11.003030303030302, "currentFiveTOI": 10.22121212121212, "ppShare": 0.009945460378569138, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 28, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.046969696969696974, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.133, "currentIXG": 0.103, "priorTOI": 9.20595238095238, "priorPPTOI": 0.24702380952380953, "deploymentChange": 1.7970779220779214, "ppTOIChange": -0.20005411255411257, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 4.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.119257834782344, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 33.0, "goalExpected": 0.07350486225489292, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07279512848924286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07086837189426867, "goalProbability": 0.07020870173766731, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0659670156601358, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6163524802294602, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7355469908093686, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.22121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009945460378569138, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.049694266272707094, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9709979127741588, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 31.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3117.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.203874158538261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.66547619047619, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06546920042540551, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8822400646366712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.081352167788983, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9540122064051568, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5190615835777126, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 4.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arshdeep Bains", "Marco Rossi", "Liam Ohgren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": 2.7117389262994323, "index": 102.71173892629943, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.8095238095238098, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.47619047619048, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.7117389262994323, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6070986768032816, "attemptProjection": 0.662062429634442, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 6746.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.22121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 1.272727272727273, "onNet": 0.49625599041533547, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 31.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.049694266272707094, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6345805532188618, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6345805532188618, "baseline": 0.6428571428571429, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 28, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483395", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6378911890741742, "adjustedSOG": 0.6289311022749594, "reductionPct": 1.4046418813558614, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6345805532188618, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6345805532188618, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6196470752201704, "afterRecentZones": 0.6345805532188618, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6196470752201704, "adjusted": 0.6196470752201704, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9764671672919341, "oldChartFactor": 1.081352167788983, "newChartFactor": 1.081352167788983, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2145107570438383, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8885472191050638, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6289311022749594, "adjustedSOG": 0.6163524802294602, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 372, "beforeSOG": 0.6163524802294602, "adjustedSOG": 0.6163524802294602 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.06848502761000491, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06999452128262258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06619255867195176, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14085130858827455 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861292026051752, "modelSOG": 0.6163524802294602, "historyGames": 52, "seasonGames": { "2024": 13, "2025": 28, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 33.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.119257834782344, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 30.98837537783553, "btb": { "id": "8483395", "name": "Arshdeep Bains", "score": 30.98837537783553, "components": { "Goal model": 23.90745501285347, "SOG model": 4.627249357326479, "Unit attack": 10.714285714285714, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 25.96401028277635, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 48.717948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9500315991894428, "unitPlayers": [ "Arshdeep Bains", "Marco Rossi", "Liam Ohgren" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 353 } }, { "id": "8483406", "name": "Taylor Ward", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.55, "currentFiveTOI": 12.55, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.183, "currentIXG": 0.183, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12489974597183469, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 43.0, "goalExpected": 0.10574498388534298, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10709970481253615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10034595489617068, "goalProbability": 0.10156390987748315, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1217954981312469, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8466389027659739, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.780876494023905, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 254.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9882576812401374, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Moore", "Quinton Byfield", "Taylor Ward" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 64, "fitPct": 14.54885356269422, "index": 114.54885356269422, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.875000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.125, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 68.125, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.875000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.54885356269422, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1500000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.5778344954407628, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 753.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.55, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5107746068724519, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8639172477203815, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8639172477203815, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 0, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483406", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8639172477203815, "adjustedSOG": 0.8639172477203815, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8639172477203815, "adjustedSOG": 0.8466389027659739, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 333, "beforeSOG": 0.8466389027659739, "adjustedSOG": 0.8466389027659739 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286066367397236, "modelSOG": 0.8466389027659739, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 36, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 43.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11627906976744186, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12489974597183469, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 33.95190573846592, "btb": { "id": "8483406", "name": "Taylor Ward", "score": 33.95190573846592, "components": { "Goal model": 35.2185089974293, "SOG model": 14.652956298200515, "Unit attack": 19.047619047619047, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 64.52442159383034, "Goalie": 3.183520599250936, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1002592663072797, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Moore", "Quinton Byfield", "Taylor Ward" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 322 } }, { "id": "8483424", "name": "Owen Beck", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.7333333333333333, "currentTOI": 8.38888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 8.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 15, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.14200000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.04733333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.18888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 0.0033333333333333335, "deploymentChange": -0.8000000000000007, "ppTOIChange": -0.0033333333333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11089717323194986, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.10480556613026182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1098590986949703, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09950040681351216, "goalProbability": 0.10403963161172348, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4539224798211325, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9450697711748974, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.619238476953909, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0162873411382372, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 579.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0899863657021664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9301860286891568, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.013890088837825, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.619238476953909, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": -2.327132377028107, "index": 97.67286762297189, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.42105263157895, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.421052631578945, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.327132377028107, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3518534517837666, "attemptProjection": 0.919334487489304, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1497.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.316666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5229160615742086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1355939696365354, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1355939696365354, "baseline": 0.7333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483424", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9746897151152545, "adjustedSOG": 0.9643569093621402, "reductionPct": 1.060112320144102, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1355939696365354, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1355939696365354, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1355939696365354, "afterRecentZones": 1.1183726267146783, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1183726267146783, "adjusted": 1.1183726267146783, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9301860286891568, "newChartFactor": 0.9064866364805719, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 24.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1785179019807128, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9643569093621402, "adjustedSOG": 0.9450697711748974, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9450697711748974, "adjustedSOG": 0.9450697711748974 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.10449188232867328, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10449188232867328, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.099217890369693, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862146653993733, "modelSOG": 0.9450697711748974, "historyGames": 30, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 15, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 25.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11089717323194986, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483425", "name": "Lian Bichsel", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.54, "currentTOI": 16.033333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 14.312121212121212, "ppShare": 0.004169562195969423, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.018181818181818184, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.246, "currentIXG": 0.022363636363636363, "priorTOI": 15.666666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.011000000000000001, "deploymentChange": 0.36666666666666714, "ppTOIChange": 0.007181818181818183, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08008126883142565, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 72.0, "goalExpected": 0.044897607101784295, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044897607101784295, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04390462580239236, "goalProbability": 0.04390462580239236, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5606505460883193, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.286682193521067, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.312121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004169562195969423, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01802388021984964, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0046969124350076, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.1523673741577944, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.495666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002277279383299951, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9516250944822373, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9827687081943468, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9352273647896316, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.571734730325039, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": -0.5743763935217743, "index": 99.42562360647823, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.26829268292683, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.951219512195121, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.829268292682926, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5743763935217743, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5101240171579808, "attemptProjection": 0.6614950485758133, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9446.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.312121212121212, "projectedAttempts": 2.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.35556930840365136, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01802388021984964, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5858095328668971, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5858095328668971, "baseline": 0.54, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483425", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5674857197201383, "adjustedSOG": 0.5606505460883193, "reductionPct": 1.2044661908302778, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5858095328668971, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5744175768138654, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5858095328668971, "afterRecentZones": 0.5858095328668971, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5858095328668971, "adjusted": 0.5744175768138654, "playerFactor": 0.9805534812701314, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9827687081943468, "newChartFactor": 0.9827687081943468, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8796432340707324, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.119186046511628, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5606505460883193, "adjustedSOG": 0.5606505460883193, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 382, "beforeSOG": 0.5606505460883193, "adjustedSOG": 0.5606505460883193 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 72.0, "goalExpected": 0.0464506917889583, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0464506917889583, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.045388370398788826, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773978239005212, "modelSOG": 0.5606505460883193, "historyGames": 99, "seasonGames": { "2024": 38, "2025": 50, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 72.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08008126883142565, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.372889603393116, "btb": { "id": "8483425", "name": "Lian Bichsel", "score": 28.372889603393116, "components": { "Goal model": 9.254498714652957, "SOG model": 2.056555269922879, "Unit attack": 48.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 1.7994858611825193, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.63642340565418, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5038888361518747, "unitPlayers": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 368 } }, { "id": "8483431", "name": "Logan Cooley", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.8888888888888888, "currentTOI": 18.069444444444446, "currentFiveTOI": 12.631944444444445, "ppShare": 0.7701778385772914, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 54, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.909722222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.432, "currentIXG": 0.20266666666666666, "priorTOI": 17.32777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 2.3969135802469137, "deploymentChange": 0.7416666666666671, "ppTOIChange": 1.5128086419753082, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.6153846153846154, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17384798658051384, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 273.0, "goalExpected": 0.25229397841568035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23766844995714914, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22298372152500717, "goalProbability": 0.21153593694367387, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1447784581333305, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4512332491054534, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.354040681693238, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.2788632326820604, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.631944444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7701778385772914, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.058039054918329, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9700318162076811, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2815.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.739306163691478, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.271182075714654, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.74537037037037, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5033125689196436, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9228939148293791, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8967568911993254, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8797002760937245, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.756242568370987, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020526", "date": "20241220", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020454", "date": "20241210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Cooley", "Vincent Trocheck", "Dylan Guenther" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": -2.570202839020695, "index": 97.4297971609793, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.179487179487182, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.495726495726494, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.384615384615387, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.863247863247864, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.393162393162392, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6837606837606838, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -3.441436960022486, "index": 96.55856303997751, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.200000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.570202839020695, "zonePPFit": -3.441436960022486, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.938589337343036, "attemptProjection": 1.3803363078232898, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 9095.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.631944444444445, "projectedAttempts": 2.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.4526630808428034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2815.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.058039054918329, "projectedAttempts": 0.6054623101476725, "onNet": 0.5100853738624637, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8905751818885707, "ppAdjusted": 0.18555430736125889, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.159462822583163, "baseline": 1.8888888888888888, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 54, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483431", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4512332491054534, "adjustedSOG": 1.4512332491054534, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4512332491054534, "adjustedSOG": 1.4512332491054534, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 176, "beforeSOG": 1.4512332491054534, "adjustedSOG": 1.4512332491054534 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.1694738998056609, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1694738998056609, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15589121440379955, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845298994531665, "modelSOG": 1.4512332491054534, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 54, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 273.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19047619047619047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17384798658051384, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.91234016232218, "btb": { "id": "8483431", "name": "Logan Cooley", "score": 63.91234016232218, "components": { "Goal model": 79.94858611825192, "SOG model": 55.012853470437015, "Unit attack": 58.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.37931034482759, "Shot quality": 65.80976863753213, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 67.7727501256913, "Goalie H2H": 51.20493181393611 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.650605413660558, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Cooley", "Vincent Trocheck", "Dylan Guenther" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 58 } }, { "id": "8483432", "name": "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7857142857142857, "currentTOI": 8.2625, "currentFiveTOI": 8.216666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 14, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.054, "currentIXG": 0.0135, "priorTOI": 9.097619047619046, "priorPPTOI": 0.22261904761904763, "deploymentChange": -0.8351190476190471, "ppTOIChange": -0.22261904761904763, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11344996755681523, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.06635349985076668, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06555800426281276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06419999934563768, "goalProbability": 0.06345527840206987, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07447209435678115, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5848701527176474, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6511156186612577, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.216666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9949718475470846, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1445.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.133457856902571, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitri Voronkov", "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "Ryan Lomberg" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": 4.448595230085701, "index": 104.4485952300857, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 46.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769234, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.448595230085701, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 0.42081878740635614, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1972.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.216666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 0.75, "onNet": 0.5191136394096887, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.49790939370317805, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.49790939370317805, "baseline": 0.7857142857142857, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 14, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483432", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.613031350507621, "adjustedSOG": 0.5968062782833137, "reductionPct": 2.64669534614701, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.49790939370317805, "afterPlayerForm": 0.49790939370317805, "afterRecentDefense": 0.47102315403182027, "afterRecentZones": 0.4977449676115837, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4708676066626657, "adjusted": 0.4708676066626657, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9460017424628352, "oldChartFactor": 1.133457856902571, "newChartFactor": 1.1328096132664063, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 32.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7424889297466817, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5968062782833137, "adjustedSOG": 0.5848701527176474, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 378, "beforeSOG": 0.5848701527176474, "adjustedSOG": 0.5848701527176474 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.033504369753418535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.034080671623929526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03294931455086854, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05571525594518789 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861945749942794, "modelSOG": 0.5848701527176474, "historyGames": 33, "seasonGames": { "2024": 15, "2025": 14, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 31.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06451612903225806, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11344996755681523, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 26.97819536660125, "btb": { "id": "8483432", "name": "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "score": 26.97819536660125, "components": { "Goal model": 19.28020565552699, "SOG model": 3.0848329048843186, "Unit attack": 16.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 23.65038560411311, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 48.588448588448585, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0688461700669807, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitri Voronkov", "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "Ryan Lomberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 378 } }, { "id": "8483435", "name": "Jorian Donovan", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 9.2, "currentFiveTOI": 9.2, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.007, "currentIXG": 0.007, "priorTOI": 7.033333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.166666666666666, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05725623339394119, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.017430731281560585, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.017776977133516128, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01727969491637722, "goalProbability": 0.017619898845146517, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03402039287692983, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.30443377512508696, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.2, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 412.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8410911892911876, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -5.296960356960412, "index": 94.70303964303959, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.296960356960412, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.3688223643710441, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 552.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.2, "projectedAttempts": 0.9999999999999999, "onNet": 0.39130508849934414, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.18441118218552205, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.18441118218552205, "baseline": 0.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483435", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.3106467093113132, "adjustedSOG": 0.3106467093113132, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.18441118218552205, "afterPlayerForm": 0.18441118218552205, "afterRecentDefense": 0.18441118218552205, "afterRecentZones": 0.18441118218552205, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.18441118218552205, "adjusted": 0.18441118218552205, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8410911892911876, "newChartFactor": 0.8294313200302355, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.3106467093113132, "adjustedSOG": 0.30443377512508696, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.30443377512508696, "adjustedSOG": 0.30443377512508696 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578287957278806, "modelSOG": 0.30443377512508696, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05725623339394119, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483445", "name": "Cutter Gauthier", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.4, "priorSOG": 3.75, "currentTOI": 17.611666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 12.361666666666666, "ppShare": 0.7947732513451191, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 34.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4466666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.732, "currentIXG": 0.37320000000000003, "priorTOI": 17.252850877192984, "priorPPTOI": 2.6530701754385966, "deploymentChange": 0.35881578947368453, "ppTOIChange": 0.7935964912280702, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12456875217909676, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 509.0, "goalExpected": 0.45860596443152246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.45860596443152246, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.36783570895445294, "goalProbability": 0.36783570895445294, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.681548995306375, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.25131454766078, "Current_PP_SOG60": 27.852998065764023, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.361666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7947732513451191, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.738398470604466, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0308143473586933, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2068.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2602.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 11.392219231710301, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.449330467845925, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.444078947368421, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.506664852545449, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.23691944570185, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.798882681564246, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 27.956989247311828, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cutter Gauthier", "Leo Carlsson", "Judd Caulfield" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 294, "fitPct": 10.980965551961532, "index": 110.98096555196153, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.48113790970934, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 61 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.30426716141002, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.847247990105133, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.022881880024737, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.123067408781694, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.221397649969078, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": 7.897314856728329, "index": 107.89731485672833, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.55381400208986, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.05224660397074, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.31974921630094, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.31974921630094, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.29467084639498, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.45977011494252873, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.980965551961532, "zonePPFit": 7.897314856728329, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.0507407696070254, "attemptProjection": 4.144775342602204, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 7417.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.361666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 4.3999999999999995, "onNet": 0.44425939772959006, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 2068.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.738398470604466, "projectedAttempts": 2.711604306531286, "onNet": 0.5876648841354725, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.078921489682432, "ppAdjusted": 1.9188365664221831, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.097758056104615, "baseline": 3.75, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483445", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.9586548336627687, "adjustedSOG": 3.9586548336627687, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.9586548336627687, "adjustedSOG": 3.9586548336627687, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 1, "beforeSOG": 3.9586548336627687, "adjustedSOG": 3.681548995306375 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 503.0, "goalExpected": 0.48650897581452546, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.469772881966596, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.38523117479343044, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0375408483018378 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286237007706993, "modelSOG": 3.681548995306375, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 63.0, "historyShots": 509.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1237721021611002, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12456875217909676, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.99844446784729, "btb": { "id": "8483445", "name": "Cutter Gauthier", "score": 65.99844446784729, "components": { "Goal model": 98.97172236503856, "SOG model": 100.0, "Unit attack": 25.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 68.96551724137932, "Shot quality": 92.03084832904884, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.69642291864514, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.189097108847812, "unitPlayers": [ "Cutter Gauthier", "Leo Carlsson", "Judd Caulfield" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 46 } }, { "id": "8483450", "name": "Ryan Greene", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.35, "currentTOI": 14.268181818181818, "currentFiveTOI": 12.113636363636363, "ppShare": 0.0782051282051282, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3696969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3439999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.12218181818181817, "priorTOI": 16.761666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.2264583333333332, "deploymentChange": -2.493484848484849, "ppTOIChange": -0.8567613636363636, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11301463811482926, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.12048126275549201, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12048126275549201, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11350630236107027, "goalProbability": 0.11350630236107027, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0660677657798296, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.602251407129456, "Current_PP_SOG60": 29.508196721311474, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.113636363636363, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0782051282051282, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.35129506604506605, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 1.0210240499559582, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 244.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.603867747972552, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.115169016476983, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.358333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2834056437809052, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9465399610136453, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9775284072576269, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1130356141711304, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.925269700495365, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.398974912328028, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Ryan Greene" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": -0.7490530914124349, "index": 99.25094690858757, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.684053651266765, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.982116244411323, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.445603576751115, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.187779433681072, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.044709388971684, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": 3.7678538057043482, "index": 103.76785380570435, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769234, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.38461538461539, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.7490530914124349, "zonePPFit": 3.7678538057043482, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9625157845094495, "attemptProjection": 0.7910434347566494, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 7995.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.113636363636363, "projectedAttempts": 1.0909090909090908, "onNet": 0.5405326272373145, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 244.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.35129506604506605, "projectedAttempts": 0.1727680652680653, "onNet": 0.5389270878097694, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6357848784729566, "ppAdjusted": 0.15008564025100193, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8767796096330495, "baseline": 1.35, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483450", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0660677657798296, "adjustedSOG": 1.0660677657798296, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0660677657798296, "adjustedSOG": 1.0660677657798296, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 288, "beforeSOG": 1.0660677657798296, "adjustedSOG": 1.0660677657798296 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 117.0, "goalExpected": 0.10094118297984374, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10426059722744287, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09601379890313821, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2995729890607132 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863220385262436, "modelSOG": 1.0660677657798296, "historyGames": 93, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 120.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11301463811482926, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.227228641110386, "btb": { "id": "8483450", "name": "Ryan Greene", "score": 42.227228641110386, "components": { "Goal model": 39.588688946015424, "SOG model": 26.22107969151671, "Unit attack": 21.428571428571427, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.760925449871465, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.863247863247864, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1554651434082257, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Ryan Greene" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 245 } }, { "id": "8483457", "name": "Lane Hutson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 25.527272727272727, "currentFiveTOI": 20.400000000000002, "ppShare": 0.7451676528599606, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8621212121212123, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.6079999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.14618181818181816, "priorTOI": 23.771747967479673, "priorPPTOI": 3.215040650406504, "deploymentChange": 1.7555247597930546, "ppTOIChange": -0.3529194382852916, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 28.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07966034936368087, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 236.0, "goalExpected": 0.15206912925558672, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15940162432388136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14107109842683938, "goalProbability": 0.14734615633097078, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6275057904131409, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.9089688969518732, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.010695187165775, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.717310746426681, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.400000000000002, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7451676528599606, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1963176140099216, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1889.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.568042747565285, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.413832342900493, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.866666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6767058823529413, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1360217230924994, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0615448396942377, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0521995262287689, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.132841328413284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.717310746426681, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 28.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020126", "date": "20241026", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 125, "fitPct": 4.534057436416646, "index": 104.53405743641665, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.684444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.982222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.3822222222222225, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.56888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.24, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.142222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": 2.0514946564745884, "index": 102.05149465647459, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 28.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.523809523809522, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.534057436416646, "zonePPFit": 2.0514946564745884, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2522890649546685, "attemptProjection": 2.2269668574416075, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 13464.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.400000000000002, "projectedAttempts": 4.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.3679637843522795, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1889.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1963176140099216, "projectedAttempts": 0.710668818361126, "onNet": 0.42300194931773877, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5780309966575832, "ppAdjusted": 0.297960600904191, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.239627961198138, "baseline": 1.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483457", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9486548254993707, "adjustedSOG": 1.9479274458692584, "reductionPct": 0.0373272690778359, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5780309966575832, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5780309966575832, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5780309966575832, "afterRecentZones": 1.5780309966575832, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5780309966575832, "adjusted": 1.5780309966575832, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1360217230924994, "newChartFactor": 1.1360217230924994, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 100.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1908457711442786, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.297960600904191, "afterPlayerForm": 0.297960600904191, "afterRecentDefense": 0.297960600904191, "afterRecentZones": 0.29674830152067067, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.29674830152067067, "adjusted": 0.29674830152067067, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0615448396942377, "newChartFactor": 1.053513469467118, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.124404761904762, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9479274458692584, "adjustedSOG": 1.9089688969518732, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 96, "beforeSOG": 1.9089688969518732, "adjustedSOG": 1.9089688969518732 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 235.0, "goalExpected": 0.15092828636578481, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15092828636578481, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14009063632636737, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057658773861967695, "modelSOG": 1.9089688969518732, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 236.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08898305084745763, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07966034936368087, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.752365293864734, "btb": { "id": "8483457", "name": "Lane Hutson", "score": 59.752365293864734, "components": { "Goal model": 51.670951156812336, "SOG model": 75.57840616966581, "Unit attack": 96.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.172413793103445, "Shot quality": 45.24421593830334, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 55.00610500610501, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6903177480918936, "unitPlayers": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 82 } }, { "id": "8483460", "name": "David Jiricek", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 14.807407407407409, "currentFiveTOI": 12.368518518518519, "ppShare": 0.42562141491395794, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 26, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0611111111111113, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.435, "currentIXG": 0.04833333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.015384615384615, "priorPPTOI": 0.10192307692307692, "deploymentChange": 2.7920227920227934, "ppTOIChange": 1.9591880341880343, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020540", "date": "20251218", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05179051729502983, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.038566458244283945, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038138510434444314, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03783224136497736, "goalProbability": 0.03742039566202334, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.041184570295402234, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7446625416885929, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6170085342117084, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.46900269541779, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.368518518518519, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42562141491395794, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0763291987383763, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2615.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.023685536704183, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.641509433962263, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.448076923076922, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023936568643866153, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.220547714854575, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9111703910426935, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8842924461160366, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.6170085342117084, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.46900269541779, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020540", "date": "20251218", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": 7.351590495152493, "index": 107.3515904951525, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -2.960986965243549, "index": 97.03901303475645, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 85.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.351590495152493, "zonePPFit": -2.960986965243549, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6924047922713457, "attemptProjection": 0.9968895282354999, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 6679.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.368518518518519, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555554, "onNet": 0.35869624239791487, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1113.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.0763291987383763, "projectedAttempts": 0.7835204523541043, "onNet": 0.40545808966861596, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.47322928956209964, "ppAdjusted": 0.26030675958021204, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8446471602534228, "baseline": 0.6153846153846154, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 26, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483460", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7529421423058998, "adjustedSOG": 0.7446625416885929, "reductionPct": 1.0996330464317583, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.47322928956209964, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4648457013700695, "afterRecentDefense": 0.47322928956209964, "afterRecentZones": 0.4719630355344532, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4719630355344532, "adjusted": 0.4636018799190797, "playerFactor": 0.9822842998585573, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.220547714854575, "newChartFactor": 1.2124841141943872, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8758961356880575, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.26030675958021204, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2601039231441755, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2565587396429149, "afterRecentZones": 0.26007932126191047, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.25633457608917526, "adjusted": 0.2561348348610538, "playerFactor": 0.9992207792207792, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 0.9111703910426935, "newChartFactor": 0.909076688301717, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.99375, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7446625416885929, "adjustedSOG": 0.7446625416885929, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7446625416885929, "adjustedSOG": 0.7446625416885929 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.03237172285257893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03177304140521595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.031853367045431916, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.057978496341017094 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057845577656489074, "modelSOG": 0.7446625416885929, "historyGames": 47, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 26, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 31.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03225806451612903, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05179051729502983, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483463", "name": "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 12.672222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 12.127777777777778, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 5, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.972, "currentIXG": 0.324, "priorTOI": 10.393333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.44333333333333336, "deploymentChange": 2.278888888888888, "ppTOIChange": -0.44333333333333336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11483531471915945, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.17484152222572913, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1659482562965802, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16040993340842064, "goalProbability": 0.15290993536751063, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7499998040910005, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5225414120501215, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.894640403114979, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.127777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 654.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9722366928169411, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9945729576895109, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alexey Toropchenko", "Pius Suter", "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": -0.9254435727686285, "index": 99.07455642723137, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.214285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.214285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9254435727686285, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9891459153790219, "attemptProjection": 1.48599212478805, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2183.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.127777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 3.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.5341190320120932, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7375690200835359, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7375690200835359, "baseline": 1.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 5, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483463", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5225414120501215, "adjustedSOG": 1.5225414120501215, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5225414120501215, "adjustedSOG": 1.5225414120501215, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 159, "beforeSOG": 1.5225414120501215, "adjustedSOG": 1.5225414120501215 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861555248545858, "modelSOG": 1.5225414120501215, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2025": 5, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11483531471915945, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 50.94433345234882, "btb": { "id": "8483463", "name": "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki", "score": 50.94433345234882, "components": { "Goal model": 58.09768637532134, "SOG model": 59.383033419023135, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 77.37789203084833, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 48.588448588448585, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 161 } }, { "id": "8483466", "name": "Kevin Korchinski", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.5384615384615384, "currentTOI": 12.016666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.566666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0182648401826484, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.054, "currentIXG": 0.027, "priorTOI": 13.637179487179488, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -1.62051282051282, "ppTOIChange": 0.1, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055150415878430996, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.04660116763253786, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04660116763253786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04553200558196023, "goalProbability": 0.04553200558196023, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8449830684008188, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5936599423631126, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.566666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0182648401826484, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.08204510862045108, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 657.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4133307795441485, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.387179487179488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9805972248137101, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9930492530653128, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.69620253164557, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kevin Korchinski", "Sam Rinzel" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": -0.6467591728763296, "index": 99.35324082712367, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 85.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6467591728763296, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9965246265326564, "attemptProjection": 1.102136883521355, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1388.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.566666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.3954067832729538, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.08204510862045108, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5493307550270057, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0493307550270057, "baseline": 0.5384615384615384, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483466", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8449830684008188, "adjustedSOG": 0.8449830684008188, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8449830684008188, "adjustedSOG": 0.8449830684008188, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 334, "beforeSOG": 0.8449830684008188, "adjustedSOG": 0.8449830684008188 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.06669671889184452, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06889001633915015, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06452112861251098, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20495349790872058 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057835011530470125, "modelSOG": 0.8449830684008188, "historyGames": 31, "seasonGames": { "2024": 16, "2025": 13, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055150415878430996, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 34.27859897172237, "btb": { "id": "8483466", "name": "Kevin Korchinski", "score": 34.27859897172237, "components": { "Goal model": 11.053984575835475, "SOG model": 14.395886889460154, "Unit attack": 43.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 44.73007712082262, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4261722731138846, "unitPlayers": [ "Kevin Korchinski", "Sam Rinzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 319 } }, { "id": "8483468", "name": "Jiri Kulich", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "currentTOI": 13.1625, "currentFiveTOI": 11.56875, "ppShare": 0.1312316715542522, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7458333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.459, "currentIXG": 0.182375, "priorTOI": 16.36388888888889, "priorPPTOI": 1.6402777777777777, "deploymentChange": -3.201388888888891, "ppTOIChange": -0.8944444444444444, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.75 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12114800821633168, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.1716093170264444, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16847405567443152, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1576918156391041, "goalProbability": 0.155046815124915, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26450005141890887, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4165261117624397, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.538087520259319, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.56875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1312316715542522, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.689355662564057, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9938645659748523, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 358.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2728.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.32995890548261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.193056731583404, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.856944444444444, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34223174024285086, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0314277451074905, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.121038401578351, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.472975771381238, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.75 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": 4.034613385945036, "index": 104.03461338594504, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.571428571428575, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.034613385945036, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2562499999999999, "attemptProjection": 1.41123183612591, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5553.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.56875, "projectedAttempts": 2.2499999999999996, "onNet": 0.4670644615673746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 358.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.689355662564057, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.083740918062955, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.333740918062955, "baseline": 1.6666666666666667, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483468", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4669112175044396, "adjustedSOG": 1.4454348079208568, "reductionPct": 1.4640565377991521, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.083740918062955, "afterPlayerForm": 1.083740918062955, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0479469020903167, "afterRecentZones": 1.083740918062955, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0479469020903167, "adjusted": 1.0479469020903167, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9669717961405245, "oldChartFactor": 1.121038401578351, "newChartFactor": 1.121038401578351, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.43333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.124649467190129, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8434201266713582, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.966666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4454348079208568, "adjustedSOG": 1.4165261117624397, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.4165261117624397, "adjustedSOG": 1.4165261117624397 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.13615766788824146, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1359780122388515, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12729497591741382, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.015680047245103523 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861926160895232, "modelSOG": 1.4165261117624397, "historyGames": 82, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 12, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 163.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1165644171779141, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12114800821633168, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483471", "name": "Brad Lambert", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.08, "currentTOI": 8.942592592592593, "currentFiveTOI": 8.940740740740742, "ppShare": 0.00040666937779585197, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 25, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.001851851851851852, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.35000000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.03888888888888889, "priorTOI": 10.806, "priorPPTOI": 1.3446666666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.863407407407406, "ppTOIChange": -1.342814814814815, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1201604456922576, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.08474474212877373, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08650689386842003, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08125322818202496, "goalProbability": 0.08287077380529742, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.16175456232724594, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7052632140347841, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9826014913007457, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.940740740740742, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00040666937779585197, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0021969388886835003, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9886036540375441, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2459.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8681785967399005, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.354486861675756, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.406666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2946440182778554, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8770600744284955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.829943733883106, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9826014913007457, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Koepke", "Morgan Barron", "Brad Lambert" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": -5.668542203896465, "index": 94.33145779610354, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.75, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.7500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.668542203896465, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.37777777777777777, "attemptProjection": 0.5330996023381693, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 4828.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.940740740740742, "projectedAttempts": 1.2222222222222223, "onNet": 0.483820047355959, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0021969388886835003, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.45543869005797355, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.45543869005797355, "baseline": 1.08, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483471", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7052632140347841, "adjustedSOG": 0.7052632140347841, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7052632140347841, "adjustedSOG": 0.7052632140347841, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 360, "beforeSOG": 0.7052632140347841, "adjustedSOG": 0.7052632140347841 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.08607324698121278, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08607324698121278, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08247297732582255, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861178831378003, "modelSOG": 0.7052632140347841, "historyGames": 39, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 25, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 32.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1201604456922576, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 33.50387048323272, "btb": { "id": "8483471", "name": "Brad Lambert", "score": 33.50387048323272, "components": { "Goal model": 28.79177377892031, "SOG model": 7.712082262210797, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 12.082262210796916, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.5842109533479367, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Koepke", "Morgan Barron", "Brad Lambert" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 327 } }, { "id": "8483476", "name": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "priorSOG": 0.7692307692307693, "currentTOI": 14.328205128205129, "currentFiveTOI": 11.762820512820513, "ppShare": 0.4790102863497359, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2089743589743587, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.46 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.436, "currentIXG": 0.18738461538461537, "priorTOI": 11.678205128205128, "priorPPTOI": 1.521794871794872, "deploymentChange": 2.6500000000000004, "ppTOIChange": 0.6871794871794867, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1374776969684487, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 59.0, "goalExpected": 0.15281960963387148, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15134404415856306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14171546589099915, "goalProbability": 0.14044807603607654, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12673898549226126, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1115956479031197, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.708446866485014, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.625652930934416, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.762820512820513, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4790102863497359, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3934603136646513, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.043378507998391, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1723.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.772596279800891, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.0328559393428813, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.787179487179488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.40332425307484293, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.079205479506808, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.60144085521729, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.189873417721518, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": 2.640182650226933, "index": 102.64018265022693, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.802197802197806, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.505494505494504, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.934065934065933, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.450549450549453, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -16.608384531050206, "index": 83.3916154689498, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.36363636363636, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 61.81818181818181, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.640182650226933, "zonePPFit": -16.608384531050206, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5574556594364768, "attemptProjection": 1.2689852230967351, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9175.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.762820512820513, "projectedAttempts": 1.6153846153846154, "onNet": 0.5218240133872543, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1723.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.3934603136646513, "projectedAttempts": 0.8334742821815385, "onNet": 0.5409732016925247, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9725713940979455, "ppAdjusted": 0.44064904716866055, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4132204412666058, "baseline": 0.7692307692307693, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483476", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1556245724522713, "adjustedSOG": 1.1342812733705303, "reductionPct": 1.8469059580872305, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9725713940979455, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9371528974472262, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9725713940979455, "afterRecentZones": 0.9724119179083144, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9724119179083144, "adjusted": 0.9369992289617107, "playerFactor": 0.9635826255371517, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.079205479506808, "newChartFactor": 1.078881218853169, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7530676734928387, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4037209798950263, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.44064904716866055, "afterPlayerForm": 0.44064904716866055, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4406490471686605, "afterRecentZones": 0.4406490471686605, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4406490471686605, "adjusted": 0.4406490471686605, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.683333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.173439273552781, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1342812733705303, "adjustedSOG": 1.1115956479031197, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 268, "beforeSOG": 1.1115956479031197, "adjustedSOG": 1.1115956479031197 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.1523704145826689, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15572884466196216, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1413298421220935, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2878946609980837 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858953817983343, "modelSOG": 1.1115956479031197, "historyGames": 50, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 13, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 59.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15254237288135594, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1374776969684487, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.21610321631119, "btb": { "id": "8483476", "name": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "score": 44.21610321631119, "components": { "Goal model": 52.18508997429306, "SOG model": 31.362467866323907, "Unit attack": 13.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.48275862068966, "Shot quality": 59.6401028277635, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 43.26101249178172, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0104286902529886, "unitPlayers": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 225 } }, { "id": "8483478", "name": "Rieger Lorenz", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.65, "currentFiveTOI": 8.608333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0012106537530266344, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5449999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.09083333333333332, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12608258409258064, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.049495323414176715, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05153245030335658, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.048290391122280195, "goalProbability": 0.05022717095429417, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1936779832013978, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.3925627299788923, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.323330106485963, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0012106537530266344, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005099943606299538, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9585268420306895, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1652.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7846133041698364, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.323330106485963, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -7.179556527672119, "index": 92.82044347232788, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 42.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.179556527672119, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.28333333333333327, "attemptProjection": 0.5555571283105877, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3099.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.608333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.4613859204583012, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005099943606299538, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4194452308219605, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4194452308219605, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483478", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4194452308219605, "adjustedSOG": 0.40057421426417583, "reductionPct": 4.499041870330556, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4194452308219605, "afterPlayerForm": 0.40474976074943564, "afterRecentDefense": 0.41511808049560883, "afterRecentZones": 0.4194452308219605, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.41511808049560894, "adjusted": 0.40057421426417583, "playerFactor": 0.9649645078959962, "defenseFactor": 0.9844223029249568, "oldChartFactor": 0.7846133041698364, "newChartFactor": 0.7730224102182603, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 44.483333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.725693143499438, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279455188487363, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.40057421426417583, "adjustedSOG": 0.3925627299788923, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.3925627299788923, "adjustedSOG": 0.3925627299788923 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.06391412191534376, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06391412191534376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06191444293749908, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860423577443225, "modelSOG": 0.3925627299788923, "historyGames": 6, "seasonGames": { "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12608258409258064, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483482", "name": "Tristan Luneau", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 20.86818181818182, "currentFiveTOI": 17.874242424242425, "ppShare": 0.16773324351633548, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7545454545454546, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.587, "currentIXG": 0.05336363636363636, "priorTOI": 11.616666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 9.251515151515154, "ppTOIChange": 0.7545454545454546, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06649936750614786, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.09765154036261856, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09765154036261856, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0930351106469284, "goalProbability": 0.0930351106469284, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4684581827577634, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.74646096465203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.874242424242425, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16773324351633548, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7889718230573739, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 498.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.329985652797705, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.616666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5769506084466713, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyson Hinds", "Tristan Luneau" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 8.381911115330198, "index": 108.3819111153302, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 48.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.381911115330198, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9409090909090909, "attemptProjection": 1.2872848516167867, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 11797.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.874242424242425, "projectedAttempts": 3.272727272727273, "onNet": 0.33670418038914596, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 498.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7889718230573739, "projectedAttempts": 0.09505684615149082, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0913558463306723, "ppAdjusted": 0.02274112493226659, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.114096971262939, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483482", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4684581827577634, "adjustedSOG": 1.4684581827577634, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4684581827577634, "adjustedSOG": 1.4684581827577634, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 172, "beforeSOG": 1.4684581827577634, "adjustedSOG": 1.4684581827577634 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.05157930885762034, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04980496101088797, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05027167489323899, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1686644312979775 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057804259982193, "modelSOG": 1.4684581827577634, "historyGames": 18, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 1, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06649936750614786, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 46.036311053984576, "btb": { "id": "8483482", "name": "Tristan Luneau", "score": 46.036311053984576, "components": { "Goal model": 32.13367609254499, "SOG model": 56.041131105398456, "Unit attack": 81.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.825192802056556, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1551576767116654, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyson Hinds", "Tristan Luneau" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 206 } }, { "id": "8483485", "name": "Denton Mateychuk", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.1733333333333333, "currentTOI": 22.94074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 19.659259259259258, "ppShare": 0.22955628896222954, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1592592592592592, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.32, "currentIXG": 0.14666666666666667, "priorTOI": 19.185555555555556, "priorPPTOI": 0.5197777777777778, "deploymentChange": 3.7551851851851836, "ppTOIChange": 0.6394814814814814, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.2 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09825145288184585, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.17654994310947428, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17443332980176676, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16184308205285605, "goalProbability": 0.16006714914779435, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17759329050617, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7969194137188766, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.103993971363979, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.7507987220447285, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.659259259259258, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22955628896222954, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2894883078051393, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 1.0055228130597536, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 626.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8686278460608503, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.15647712697734, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.543333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1199993743450175, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1093857832988268, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.12939833385952, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8215079002394061, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.491668622389111, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.2, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Christiansen", "Denton Mateychuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": 4.313277795317333, "index": 104.31327779531733, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.133709981167605, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.745762711864407, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.834274952919021, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.740112994350284, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.612052730696798, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.934086629001884, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": -5.9497366586864615, "index": 94.05026334131354, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.313277795317333, "zonePPFit": -5.9497366586864615, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5161652703731905, "attemptProjection": 2.1647015217185004, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 10616.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.659259259259258, "projectedAttempts": 3.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4413553431798436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 626.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2894883078051393, "projectedAttempts": 0.3707793856308707, "onNet": 0.4171907756813417, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1040910055504707, "ppAdjusted": 0.12523127938426332, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.3404333960458454, "baseline": 1.1733333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483485", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8735933709608406, "adjustedSOG": 1.8335912384886497, "reductionPct": 2.135048783380167, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1040910055504707, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1040910055504707, "afterRecentDefense": 2.0418541912333352, "afterRecentZones": 2.1040910055504707, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.041854191233335, "adjusted": 2.041854191233335, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704210444543707, "oldChartFactor": 1.12939833385952, "newChartFactor": 1.12939833385952, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2317363879923213, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8589415872486641, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12523127938426332, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1207978729144147, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12523127938426332, "afterRecentZones": 0.12523127938426332, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12523127938426332, "adjusted": 0.1207978729144147, "playerFactor": 0.9645982498011137, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8215079002394061, "newChartFactor": 0.8009937095639499, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5845004668534081, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8335912384886497, "adjustedSOG": 1.7969194137188766, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 107, "beforeSOG": 1.7969194137188766, "adjustedSOG": 1.7969194137188766 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.184393964381983, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18756568757410277, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1683918846950911, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2633452247610357 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05759366126225154, "modelSOG": 1.7969194137188766, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 45, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09825145288184585, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.57423087772273, "btb": { "id": "8483485", "name": "Denton Mateychuk", "score": 46.57423087772273, "components": { "Goal model": 59.6401028277635, "SOG model": 72.75064267352185, "Unit attack": 46.875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 47.30077120822622, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 34.5679012345679, "Goalie H2H": 47.57975797579758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.502015002641037, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Christiansen", "Denton Mateychuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 204 } }, { "id": "8483489", "name": "Fraser Minten", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5833333333333335, "priorSOG": 1.4146341463414633, "currentTOI": 16.60972222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 13.305555555555555, "ppShare": 0.29623873173764376, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.323611111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.697, "currentIXG": 0.3080833333333333, "priorTOI": 15.551016260162603, "priorPPTOI": 0.9471544715447155, "deploymentChange": 1.0587059620596175, "ppTOIChange": 0.3764566395663955, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1396957405537468, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.2555823716580726, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2555823716580726, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22553466006113065, "goalProbability": 0.22553466006113065, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8295645282021995, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.394572025052192, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.88772298006296, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.305555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29623873173764376, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3856914820836952, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9910807999229769, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 953.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.210259708933022, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.815450643776824, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.639227642276424, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21600875159920646, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.797270661105477, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7688064993703075, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.413784429631493, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.300492610837438, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Fraser Minten", "Morgan Geekie" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 136, "fitPct": -6.757644629817435, "index": 93.24235537018257, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.903743315508024, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.208556149732622, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.75935828877005, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.21390374331551, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.695187165775401, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.219251336898395, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": -7.706450020989749, "index": 92.29354997901025, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.862379870388693, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5860651609765739, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 58.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.996723394411575, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.054999008711206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.20365120003699, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 83.7122667792253, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.757644629817435, "zonePPFit": -7.706450020989749, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2249445553669207, "attemptProjection": 2.1173071999659356, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 25.0, "seconds": 9580.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.305555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 3.7499999999999996, "onNet": 0.5317160304075105, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 953.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3856914820836952, "projectedAttempts": 0.6979348493181257, "onNet": 0.5349001476915174, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.73796098527856, "ppAdjusted": 0.34983155905453467, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1711258776664284, "baseline": 1.4146341463414633, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483489", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8685291851364423, "adjustedSOG": 1.8669025797981629, "reductionPct": 0.08705271243385493, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.73796098527856, "afterPlayerForm": 1.73796098527856, "afterRecentDefense": 1.73796098527856, "afterRecentZones": 1.73796098527856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.73796098527856, "adjusted": 1.73796098527856, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.797270661105477, "newChartFactor": 0.797270661105477, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0215397739390062, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2256017558130021, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.34983155905453467, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3471205501574029, "afterRecentDefense": 0.34983155905453467, "afterRecentZones": 0.34983155905453467, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.34983155905453467, "adjusted": 0.3471205501574029, "playerFactor": 0.9922505307855626, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7688064993703075, "newChartFactor": 0.7688064993703075, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.928849902534113, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8669025797981629, "adjustedSOG": 1.8295645282021995, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 103, "beforeSOG": 1.8295645282021995, "adjustedSOG": 1.8295645282021995 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 166.0, "goalExpected": 0.36625114891798644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3522786980413551, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3066713493986048, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9755495892686983 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857545690065386, "modelSOG": 1.8295645282021995, "historyGames": 115, "seasonGames": { "2024": 21, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 171.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14619883040935672, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1396957405537468, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.043367515089884, "btb": { "id": "8483489", "name": "Fraser Minten", "score": 61.043367515089884, "components": { "Goal model": 80.46272493573265, "SOG model": 73.7789203084833, "Unit attack": 69.04761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 85.60411311053984, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 38.64468864468864, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.846579866867944, "unitPlayers": [ "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Fraser Minten", "Morgan Geekie" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 74 } }, { "id": "8483490", "name": "Pavel Mintyukov", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.082191780821918, "currentTOI": 18.098148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 14.983333333333333, "ppShare": 0.06131504638967326, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.28148148148148144, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.458, "currentIXG": 0.05088888888888889, "priorTOI": 18.425342465753424, "priorPPTOI": 0.7616438356164383, "deploymentChange": -0.32719431760527584, "ppTOIChange": -0.4801623541349569, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07420252321038011, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.059806441210905045, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.059806441210905045, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.058053161970273465, "goalProbability": 0.058053161970273465, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8059893198151891, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2246941045606228, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.983333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06131504638967326, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2884093988571601, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 152.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.697885196374622, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.237410071942446, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.114155251141552, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14545343174006228, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2482866093691645, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2246941045606228, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 8.276220312305483, "index": 108.27622031230548, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 34.957983193277315, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.19327731092437, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.277310924369749, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.563025210084035, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.6722689075630253, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.33613445378151263, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.276220312305483, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6388888888888887, "attemptProjection": 0.6048198027325177, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 8091.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.983333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.4025251534430089, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 152.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2884093988571601, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6218543458107032, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6218543458107032, "baseline": 1.082191780821918, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483490", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8059893198151891, "adjustedSOG": 0.8059893198151891, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8059893198151891, "adjustedSOG": 0.8059893198151891, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8059893198151891, "adjustedSOG": 0.8059893198151891 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.04642031538526913, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0448234388765929, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04535937229013479, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15256610145301594 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057732383722261665, "modelSOG": 0.8059893198151891, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 73, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 153.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08496732026143791, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07420252321038011, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483493", "name": "Frank Nazar", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 2.1076923076923078, "currentTOI": 17.881481481481483, "currentFiveTOI": 13.522222222222222, "ppShare": 0.30279898218829515, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5425925925925925, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.9379999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.3264444444444444, "priorTOI": 18.317179487179487, "priorPPTOI": 3.0446153846153847, "deploymentChange": -0.4356980056980042, "ppTOIChange": -1.5020227920227922, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12532510615403344, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.22641301663988428, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22641301663988428, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2026113011551449, "goalProbability": 0.2026113011551449, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.8066054247870065, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4511092851273624, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.321728691476591, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.522222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30279898218829515, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.360163852263089, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 1.0210240499559582, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 833.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2751.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127132257324256, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.701869631126831, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.408205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7035389296895571, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1141562853907137, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9758273403234906, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.08722416467752, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7567084078711988, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.958677685950414, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -0.8057553225503113, "index": 99.19424467744969, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.836403033586134, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 42.73022751895992, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.010834236186344, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.098591549295775, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.352112676056339, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.971830985915493, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": 16.601409245405634, "index": 116.60140924540563, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.833333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.166666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8057553225503113, "zonePPFit": 16.601409245405634, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.624952095036681, "attemptProjection": 1.5868095773302637, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7302.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.522222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 1.4444444444444444, "onNet": 0.5160797283922778, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 833.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.360163852263089, "projectedAttempts": 0.29391295727173594, "onNet": 0.5098907276624153, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8012062395943763, "ppAdjusted": 0.13800792992242936, "other": 0.6666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6058808361834722, "baseline": 2.1076923076923078, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483493", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8066054247870065, "adjustedSOG": 1.8066054247870065, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8066054247870065, "adjustedSOG": 1.8066054247870065, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 106, "beforeSOG": 1.8066054247870065, "adjustedSOG": 1.8066054247870065 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.22796690973459807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23546351900561557, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20384939576562625, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5946114305825451 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286118630467944, "modelSOG": 1.8066054247870065, "historyGames": 127, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 65, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12396694214876033, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12532510615403344, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.07661442622882, "btb": { "id": "8483493", "name": "Frank Nazar", "score": 53.07661442622882, "components": { "Goal model": 73.00771208226222, "SOG model": 73.00771208226222, "Unit attack": 7.142857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.11825192802057, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 36.65716999050333, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9132710488371494, "unitPlayers": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 143 } }, { "id": "8483499", "name": "Liam Ohgren", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.2608695652173914, "currentTOI": 14.805555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 12.405555555555557, "ppShare": 0.27434715821812594, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2402777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.122, "currentIXG": 0.17683333333333331, "priorTOI": 13.170531400966183, "priorPPTOI": 0.32681159420289857, "deploymentChange": 1.635024154589372, "ppTOIChange": 0.9134661835748792, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10671542251540254, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.13420733869910784, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13291148592215157, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1255912529651895, "goalProbability": 0.12445741347628962, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11338394888998765, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2576189601811052, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.030452306314375, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.062709966405375, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.405555555555557, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27434715821812594, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3708244980825628, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9709979127741588, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 893.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3255.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.021265580821154, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.6607538802660753, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.130917874396134, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08661551209764493, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0621401638251955, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7711381680968684, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.369462313387547, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.062709966405375, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020284", "date": "20251115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arshdeep Bains", "Marco Rossi", "Liam Ohgren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": 2.0713387941731867, "index": 102.07133879417319, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.628815628815628, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 36.65445665445665, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.24053724053724, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.490842490842493, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.617826617826618, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3675213675213675, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -7.628727730104387, "index": 92.37127226989561, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.0713387941731867, "zonePPFit": -7.628727730104387, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2815779381908414, "attemptProjection": 1.3481311597381909, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8932.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.405555555555557, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333337, "onNet": 0.4827831025914093, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 893.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3708244980825628, "projectedAttempts": 0.5526280171441462, "onNet": 0.5370511841100077, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9430634180102552, "ppAdjusted": 0.20512446428759418, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.314854548964516, "baseline": 1.2608695652173914, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483499", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2932605554656662, "adjustedSOG": 1.2832846532460258, "reductionPct": 0.7713760523723967, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9430634180102552, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9430634180102552, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9430634180102551, "afterRecentZones": 0.9359239207841554, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9359239207841554, "adjusted": 0.9359239207841554, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0621401638251955, "newChartFactor": 1.0463144662529678, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0665499124343258, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4037209798950263, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.20512446428759418, "afterPlayerForm": 0.19563745781429295, "afterRecentDefense": 0.20512446428759418, "afterRecentZones": 0.20512446428759418, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.20512446428759418, "adjusted": 0.19563745781429295, "playerFactor": 0.95375, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7711381680968684, "newChartFactor": 0.7711381680968684, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.4377450980392157, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2832846532460258, "adjustedSOG": 1.2576189601811052, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 233, "beforeSOG": 1.2576189601811052, "adjustedSOG": 1.2576189601811052 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 132.0, "goalExpected": 0.1276649785985958, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1304788706876354, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1198518017606493, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24731608165085156 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864693446088796, "modelSOG": 1.2576189601811052, "historyGames": 105, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 69, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 133.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09022556390977443, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10671542251540254, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.52378607314505, "btb": { "id": "8483499", "name": "Liam Ohgren", "score": 43.52378607314505, "components": { "Goal model": 45.501285347043705, "SOG model": 40.3598971722365, "Unit attack": 10.714285714285714, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.29820051413882, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 37.91208791208791, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9500315991894428, "unitPlayers": [ "Arshdeep Bains", "Marco Rossi", "Liam Ohgren" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 232 } }, { "id": "8483500", "name": "Noah Ostlund", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.907575757575756, "currentFiveTOI": 14.404545454545454, "ppShare": 0.6568341121495327, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4075757575757577, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.802, "currentIXG": 0.34563636363636363, "priorTOI": 13.969444444444443, "priorPPTOI": 1.2730555555555556, "deploymentChange": 4.938131313131313, "ppTOIChange": 2.134520202020202, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14286082297981004, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.2505003372332949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24592375573059758, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22158878249247987, "goalProbability": 0.21801815571296532, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.35706267795145574, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7534571900702067, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.058693594193752, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.204979991107159, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.404545454545454, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6568341121495327, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4503280283854907, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0027135944463237, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2249.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.3349843231699, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.49858171503382, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.226111111111113, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2656135589386936, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.070626994749305, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.105855804957181, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.961783439490445, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Doan", "Noah Ostlund", "Jack Quinn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": 3.528526831906035, "index": 103.52852683190603, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.242453748782864, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.62706913339825, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.28042843232717, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.197663096397273, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.813047711781888, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.839337877312561, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": 11.702889065905183, "index": 111.70288906590518, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.48717948717949, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.3076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.05128205128205, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.528526831906035, "zonePPFit": 11.702889065905183, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5046361136186626, "attemptProjection": 2.4524478982514273, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 9507.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.404545454545454, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.5001569022736566, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2249.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4503280283854907, "projectedAttempts": 1.1045959005947323, "onNet": 0.5326485252598065, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6653685750384732, "ppAdjusted": 0.7222643399874807, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.478542005935045, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483500", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8871252035610269, "adjustedSOG": 1.7892420306838845, "reductionPct": 5.1868934129243645, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6653685750384732, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5516394489322776, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6653685750384732, "afterRecentZones": 1.6651457257007722, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6651457257007722, "adjusted": 1.551431818123862, "playerFactor": 0.9317093358126034, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.105855804957181, "newChartFactor": 1.105561149351637, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.63333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5868760031277008, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3936221524642403, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7222643399874807, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6776007366725668, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7174269422747945, "afterRecentZones": 0.7222643399874807, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7174269422747945, "adjusted": 0.6730624754401886, "playerFactor": 0.9381616939364774, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6363893604980193, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7892420306838845, "adjustedSOG": 1.7534571900702067, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 115, "beforeSOG": 1.7534571900702067, "adjustedSOG": 1.7534571900702067 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.3057143362857177, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3053109560834487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26340299155821945, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02971885862222412 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285783472020429, "modelSOG": 1.7534571900702067, "historyGames": 79, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 88.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1590909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14286082297981004, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 64.02174268039833, "btb": { "id": "8483500", "name": "Noah Ostlund", "score": 64.02174268039833, "components": { "Goal model": 79.17737789203085, "SOG model": 70.69408740359897, "Unit attack": 65.47619047619048, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 24.137931034482758, "Shot quality": 89.7172236503856, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 52.30294396961064, "Goalie H2H": 48.6549598356062 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.833124614857099, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Doan", "Noah Ostlund", "Jack Quinn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 56 } }, { "id": "8483505", "name": "Matthew Poitras", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "currentTOI": 10.435185185185185, "currentFiveTOI": 10.02962962962963, "ppShare": 0.06725380304243395, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3111111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.825, "currentIXG": 0.20277777777777778, "priorTOI": 12.116666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.8444444444444444, "deploymentChange": -1.681481481481482, "ppTOIChange": -0.5333333333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12573717243382657, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.21944453767894356, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21944453767894356, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1970353092564589, "goalProbability": 0.1970353092564589, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7452638184180074, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.641063515509602, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.02962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06725380304243395, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.31458756748988936, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 0.9910807999229769, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 168.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2498.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 14.194184327254805, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.272222222222224, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19258462660461437, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8989271848758811, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.470588235294118, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tanner Jeannot", "Matthew Poitras", "Mark Kastelic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": -3.369093837470629, "index": 96.63090616252937, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.85714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.369093837470629, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.227777777777778, "attemptProjection": 1.1529381578843778, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 5416.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.02962962962963, "projectedAttempts": 2.555555555555556, "onNet": 0.527575656009774, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 168.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.31458756748988936, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.190357967831078, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.190357967831078, "baseline": 2.6666666666666665, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483505", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7808814473653136, "adjustedSOG": 1.7808814473653136, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.190357967831078, "afterPlayerForm": 1.190357967831078, "afterRecentDefense": 1.190357967831078, "afterRecentZones": 1.190357967831078, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.190357967831078, "adjusted": 1.190357967831078, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8989271848758811, "newChartFactor": 0.8989271848758811, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.079794494287248, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2256017558130021, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.9166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7808814473653136, "adjustedSOG": 1.7452638184180074, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 116, "beforeSOG": 1.7452638184180074, "adjustedSOG": 1.7452638184180074 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.18281732979760834, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1758428638674933, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16707970844043754, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5829479318084752 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860575865073987, "modelSOG": 1.7452638184180074, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2024": 33, "2025": 3, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12573717243382657, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 53.44524144331343, "btb": { "id": "8483505", "name": "Matthew Poitras", "score": 53.44524144331343, "components": { "Goal model": 71.2082262210797, "SOG model": 70.4370179948586, "Unit attack": 71.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 65.55269922879178, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.55745489078822, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9269653693361715, "unitPlayers": [ "Tanner Jeannot", "Matthew Poitras", "Mark Kastelic" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 138 } }, { "id": "8483506", "name": "Sam Rinzel", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.509433962264151, "currentTOI": 17.27, "currentFiveTOI": 15.763333333333332, "ppShare": 0.20581356498496492, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0266666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.914, "currentIXG": 0.09140000000000001, "priorTOI": 18.19622641509434, "priorPPTOI": 1.9949685534591195, "deploymentChange": -0.9262264150943409, "ppTOIChange": -0.9683018867924527, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05040369572218105, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.0678675732142817, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0678675732142817, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06561579711889079, "goalProbability": 0.06561579711889079, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3464800991649382, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4256713893000637, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.532467532467532, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.763333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20581356498496492, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9245082971377659, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 616.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2993.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.671532846715328, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.944514501891551, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.50943396226415, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46099026102183904, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0189097810960133, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.149976565869596, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0318483179988198, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3418426549083313, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.532467532467532, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kevin Korchinski", "Sam Rinzel" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 105, "fitPct": 0.6303260365337735, "index": 100.63032603653377, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.81203007518798, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.9674185463659155, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.142857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.142857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.934837092731831, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": 4.999218862319864, "index": 104.99921886231986, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.6303260365337735, "zonePPFit": 4.999218862319864, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.239334293841012, "attemptProjection": 1.2363540870232468, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9458.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.763333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.3619569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 616.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9245082971377659, "projectedAttempts": 0.2701485283844121, "onNet": 0.4549266247379455, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0155303201261323, "ppAdjusted": 0.22231387030599692, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2378441904321293, "baseline": 1.509433962264151, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483506", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3464800991649382, "adjustedSOG": 1.3464800991649382, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3464800991649382, "adjustedSOG": 1.3464800991649382, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 205, "beforeSOG": 1.3464800991649382, "adjustedSOG": 1.3464800991649382 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.06451424119370673, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0666357686522684, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06247723727628938, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.19868719372367824 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057863908845467445, "modelSOG": 1.3464800991649382, "historyGames": 72, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 53, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043859649122807015, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05040369572218105, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.99810176804937, "btb": { "id": "8483506", "name": "Sam Rinzel", "score": 39.99810176804937, "components": { "Goal model": 20.565552699228792, "SOG model": 47.55784061696658, "Unit attack": 43.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 22.87917737789203, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.627876397107165, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4261722731138846, "unitPlayers": [ "Kevin Korchinski", "Sam Rinzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 270 } }, { "id": "8483510", "name": "Elias Salomonsson", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 17.65, "currentFiveTOI": 15.45, "ppShare": 0.358695652173913, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.117, "currentIXG": 0.117, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04917016390164974, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 38.0, "goalExpected": 0.0641559572239374, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0654899931628166, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0621412777182434, "goalProbability": 0.06339158079931093, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1250303081067529, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3047741177406338, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.883495145631068, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.45, "Current_PP_Share": 0.358695652173913, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9377717391304348, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 1.0193664185141458, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 132.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 368.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0003607503607503, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8917072631972757, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8920289469141578, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Elias Salomonsson", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": -3.6097578934241454, "index": 96.39024210657585, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.66666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.508771929824561, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.807017543859649, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4035087719298245, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.210526315789473, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4035087719298245, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.6097578934241454, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8920289469141578, "attemptProjection": 1.71751928856711, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 927.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.45, "projectedAttempts": 5.0, "onNet": 0.38102835479030095, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 132.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.9377717391304348, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3047741177406338, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3047741177406338, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483510", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3047741177406338, "adjustedSOG": 1.3047741177406338, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3047741177406338, "adjustedSOG": 1.3047741177406338, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 224, "beforeSOG": 1.3047741177406338, "adjustedSOG": 1.3047741177406338 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785482618427664, "modelSOG": 1.3047741177406338, "historyGames": 33, "seasonGames": { "2025": 32, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 38.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02631578947368421, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04917016390164974, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 41.95925685635689, "btb": { "id": "8483510", "name": "Elias Salomonsson", "score": 41.95925685635689, "components": { "Goal model": 17.737789203084834, "SOG model": 42.673521850899746, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 59.383033419023135, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 44.58689458689459, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5248266662977557, "unitPlayers": [ "Elias Salomonsson", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 248 } }, { "id": "8483513", "name": "Reid Schaefer", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.8297872340425532, "currentTOI": 10.641666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.28888888888889, "ppShare": 0.004515805318615153, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.024999999999999998, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.332, "currentIXG": 0.05533333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.641489361702128, "priorPPTOI": 0.00921985815602837, "deploymentChange": 1.0001773049645397, "ppTOIChange": 0.015780141843971626, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13097150460497556, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.11572478322576346, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11572478322576346, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10927966925674075, "goalProbability": 0.10927966925674075, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8835874916059193, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.859611231101512, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.28888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004515805318615153, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0237421885690827, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 1.0122748750964923, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1993.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.246244675285853, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.490070921985817, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0022832918299705834, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.033328283593395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9809476036178961, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0136409035415346, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.859611231101512, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": -0.6350798794034631, "index": 99.36492012059654, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.381180223285483, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.472089314194577, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.140350877192986, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.173843700159491, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.676236044657095, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.156299840510367, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6350798794034631, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.844700752951279, "attemptProjection": 0.9942079070117145, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.28888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.47238703788224556, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0237421885690827, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9194543299814968, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9194543299814968, "baseline": 0.8297872340425532, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 47, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483513", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8835874916059193, "adjustedSOG": 0.8835874916059193, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8835874916059193, "adjustedSOG": 0.8835874916059193, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8835874916059193, "adjustedSOG": 0.8835874916059193 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.11233792146873527, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11233792146873527, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10625780820813323, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285989666311648, "modelSOG": 0.8835874916059193, "historyGames": 53, "seasonGames": { "2025": 47, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13097150460497556, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483514", "name": "Matthew Seminoff", "position": "R", "priorGP": 0, "priorSOG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.50844277673546, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.883333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0126724991491074, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 132.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9795785760698041, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8789933499422711, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8610430541112769, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695 }, "inputs": null, "team": "DAL", "isHome": true, "opponent": "NJD", "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.2727272727272725, "currentGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentSOG": 2.0, "currentTOI": 8.883333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.883333333333333, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.063, "currentIXGTotal": 0.063, "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 1.294347458140854, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.12608258409258064, "goalProbability": 0.1505741873042444, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Line 4", "lineMates": [ "Colin Blackwell", "Justin Hryckowian", "Matthew Seminoff" ], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -4.033555001924299, "index": 95.9664449980757, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.033555001924299, "zonePPFit": null, "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7220861082225538, "attemptProjection": 0.9256635294327118, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 533.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.883333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5201827875095202, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3238748188276328, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3238748188276328, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 0, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483514", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3238748188276328, "adjustedSOG": 1.294347458140854, "reductionPct": 2.2303740706335784, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3238748188276328, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3238748188276328, "afterRecentDefense": 1.294347458140854, "afterRecentZones": 1.3238748188276328, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.294347458140854, "adjusted": 1.294347458140854, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9600625800028445, "oldChartFactor": 0.8789933499422711, "newChartFactor": 0.8789933499422711, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.883333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8139534883720929, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.294347458140854, "adjustedSOG": 1.294347458140854, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 227, "beforeSOG": 1.294347458140854, "adjustedSOG": 1.294347458140854 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.16319467223606224, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16319467223606224, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1505741873042444, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860423577443225, "modelSOG": 1.294347458140854, "historyGames": 1, "seasonGames": { "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12608258409258064, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 43.65987268943567, "btb": { "id": "8483514", "name": "Matthew Seminoff", "score": 43.65987268943567, "components": { "Goal model": 55.012853470437015, "SOG model": 41.90231362467866, "Unit attack": 23.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 56.81233933161954, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1819173016368896, "unitPlayers": [ "Colin Blackwell", "Justin Hryckowian", "Matthew Seminoff" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 229 } }, { "id": "8483515", "name": "Juraj Slafkovsky", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.727272727272727, "priorSOG": 2.207317073170732, "currentTOI": 18.386363636363637, "currentFiveTOI": 13.93030303030303, "ppShare": 0.7092702169625247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.724242424242424, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.759, "currentIXG": 0.3417272727272727, "priorTOI": 18.536991869918698, "priorPPTOI": 3.1792682926829268, "deploymentChange": -0.15062823355506083, "ppTOIChange": -0.45502586844050263, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.8181818181818183, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1415655698413467, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 344.0, "goalExpected": 0.3333241920453803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34939647447561756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2834621393772355, "goalProbability": 0.29488648466771794, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.1424345290482418, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.354556919588135, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.481835979986948, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.024471635150167, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.93030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7092702169625247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0423393700316774, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 0.956490660479933, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1798.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.748316934230968, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.586881472957423, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.129268292682926, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6691764705882354, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0067191008104244, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9728094847439539, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8557112356888606, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9642453532657848, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.822211397954213, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.024471635150167, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021133", "date": "20250325", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 192, "fitPct": 0.22397002701414692, "index": 100.22397002701415, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.505952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.92261904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.208333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.434523809523807, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.547619047619047, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.380952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -0.9063505085348709, "index": 99.09364949146513, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.536294691224267, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.296858071505955, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.00108342361864, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.122426868905741, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.043336944745395, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.22397002701414692, "zonePPFit": -0.9063505085348709, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.6204682194960545, "attemptProjection": 2.4854441458568846, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9194.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.93030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.5206600660066006, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 1798.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0423393700316774, "projectedAttempts": 1.522861753630984, "onNet": 0.560898340023869, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1686582226946778, "ppAdjusted": 0.9297525054363369, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5529561826764695, "baseline": 2.207317073170732, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483515", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4147005388741745, "adjustedSOG": 2.402609101620546, "reductionPct": 0.5007427239514195, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1686582226946778, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1686582226946778, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1686582226946778, "afterRecentZones": 1.1686582226946778, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1686582226946778, "adjusted": 1.1686582226946778, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0067191008104244, "newChartFactor": 1.0067191008104244, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2183246568859443, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0956331264567947, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9297525054363369, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9118771139460503, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9297525054363369, "afterRecentZones": 0.927430865734359, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.927430865734359, "adjusted": 0.9096001100136235, "playerFactor": 0.9807740324594257, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9728094847439539, "newChartFactor": 0.9686147630363614, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8537511870845205, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.402609101620546, "adjustedSOG": 2.354556919588135, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 45, "beforeSOG": 2.354556919588135, "adjustedSOG": 2.354556919588135 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.322661407656252, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.322661407656252, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27578097212332786, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855113009557934, "modelSOG": 2.354556919588135, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 344.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14534883720930233, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1415655698413467, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.356615893802, "btb": { "id": "8483515", "name": "Juraj Slafkovsky", "score": 68.356615893802, "components": { "Goal model": 92.03084832904884, "SOG model": 88.68894601542416, "Unit attack": 70.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.172413793103445, "Shot quality": 89.20308483290488, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 42.63642340565418, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8697249851059112, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 24 } }, { "id": "8483516", "name": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 2.414285714285714, "currentTOI": 17.73939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 14.684848484848485, "ppShare": 0.566632052613361, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4803030303030305, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.3569999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.30518181818181817, "priorTOI": 16.695714285714285, "priorPPTOI": 2.190238095238095, "deploymentChange": 1.0436796536796535, "ppTOIChange": 0.29006493506493536, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1348466270161613, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 203.0, "goalExpected": 0.3114505627219279, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2956087155290556, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2676161833272049, "goalProbability": 0.25592148256388225, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.169470076332263, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.3096652071586536, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.428807263722658, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.398289554062309, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.684848484848485, "Current_PP_Share": 0.566632052613361, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.071832551894857, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 1.0100944427278242, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1637.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.740746429119951, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.914447222524187, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.952142857142857, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5309772761508692, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0229741019214704, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9620766772524071, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1273109910538324, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9841795248918735, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1400092477010793, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.30982303154655, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.9046321525885554, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Holloway", "Robert Thomas", "Jimmy Snuggerud" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": -1.2641107582530964, "index": 98.7358892417469, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.186277995023106, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.967294703163883, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.310700319943123, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.774617845716318, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.455030216850336, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3060789193032347, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 4.243699701794412, "index": 104.24369970179441, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.2641107582530964, "zonePPFit": 4.243699701794412, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.227942953673853, "attemptProjection": 2.251893451140706, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9692.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.684848484848485, "projectedAttempts": 4.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.47420531526836895, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1637.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.071832551894857, "projectedAttempts": 0.5629503760344882, "onNet": 0.49924349275548147, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7942340990006382, "ppAdjusted": 0.26386592158845956, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2399182024072797, "baseline": 2.414285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483516", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3096652071586536, "adjustedSOG": 2.3096652071586536, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.3096652071586536, "adjustedSOG": 2.3096652071586536, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 50, "beforeSOG": 2.3096652071586536, "adjustedSOG": 2.3096652071586536 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 201.0, "goalExpected": 0.33576904253520057, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33002602558031485, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2852118275821881, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.41168508502220647 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285852798589687, "modelSOG": 2.3096652071586536, "historyGames": 88, "seasonGames": { "2024": 7, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 203.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13793103448275862, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1348466270161613, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.83031136255495, "btb": { "id": "8483516", "name": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "score": 67.83031136255495, "components": { "Goal model": 88.68894601542416, "SOG model": 87.40359897172236, "Unit attack": 59.523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.86206896551724, "Shot quality": 84.31876606683805, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 49.365449365449365, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6757709992445045, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Holloway", "Robert Thomas", "Jimmy Snuggerud" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 29 } }, { "id": "8483521", "name": "Noah Warren", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 17.0, "currentFiveTOI": 13.851515151515152, "ppShare": 0.0020208824520040417, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.009090909090909092, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.166, "currentIXG": 0.015090909090909092, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05405300479459112, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.047067537255451035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.047067537255451035, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04597703667804122, "goalProbability": 0.04597703667804122, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8707663419325933, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.362721505141107, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.851515151515152, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0020208824520040417, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.009505684615149081, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 6.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.915766738660907, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jackson Lacombe", "Noah Warren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 9.627619599821216, "index": 109.62761959982122, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.627619599821216, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7181818181818181, "attemptProjection": 1.0233508656833685, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9142.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.851515151515152, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.3370981754995656, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 6.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.009505684615149081, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7798572510235025, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8707663419325933, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483521", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8707663419325933, "adjustedSOG": 0.8707663419325933, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8707663419325933, "adjustedSOG": 0.8707663419325933, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 324, "beforeSOG": 0.8707663419325933, "adjustedSOG": 0.8707663419325933 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.04637328575818054, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044778027086567376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04531447484166312, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1524185774724178 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578367151302125, "modelSOG": 0.8707663419325933, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05405300479459112, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 28.62869537275064, "btb": { "id": "8483521", "name": "Noah Warren", "score": 28.62869537275064, "components": { "Goal model": 12.082262210796916, "SOG model": 16.966580976863753, "Unit attack": 28.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 0.5141388174807198, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1677998792886823, "unitPlayers": [ "Jackson Lacombe", "Noah Warren" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 364 } }, { "id": "8483525", "name": "Danila Yurov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "priorSOG": 1.095890410958904, "currentTOI": 14.297435897435898, "currentFiveTOI": 11.357692307692307, "ppShare": 0.30454009433962265, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3243589743589743, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.46 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.128, "currentIXG": 0.1636923076923077, "priorTOI": 13.297488584474886, "priorPPTOI": 0.5883561643835616, "deploymentChange": 0.9999473129610124, "ppTOIChange": 0.7360028099754127, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14501165318995068, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.17841224359518423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18575532883467893, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16340252955762588, "goalProbability": 0.1695232361562802, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6120706598654324, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2303303884239023, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.689129698611581, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.96999031945789, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.357692307692307, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30454009433962265, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.282891415573093, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0114213881458354, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1033.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.082478823004904, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.587892898719441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.29041095890411, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11151093373269858, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9599248429939258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8110925174032872, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1265148259628583, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.698977106673161, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.149950347567031, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": -6.29691608655709, "index": 93.70308391344291, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.62809917355372, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.17355371900827, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.966942148760328, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.305785123966942, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.652892561983471, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": 4.21716086542861, "index": 104.21716086542861, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.29691608655709, "zonePPFit": 4.21716086542861, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3175372104801646, "attemptProjection": 1.4296790727143094, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8859.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.357692307692307, "projectedAttempts": 2.1538461538461537, "onNet": 0.506577216521968, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1033.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.282891415573093, "projectedAttempts": 0.37257253114417027, "onNet": 0.5095310648383274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9503621593109209, "ppAdjusted": 0.19247675151708513, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.373608141597237, "baseline": 1.095890410958904, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483525", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.262521049341904, "adjustedSOG": 1.2554391718611249, "reductionPct": 0.5609314382893249, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9503621593109209, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9503621593109209, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9439229634327317, "afterRecentZones": 0.9503621593109209, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9439229634327317, "adjusted": 0.9439229634327317, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9869299981376292, "oldChartFactor": 0.8110925174032872, "newChartFactor": 0.8100812129973196, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.464781746031746, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9395448378343455, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.19247675151708513, "afterPlayerForm": 0.18753883819822062, "afterRecentDefense": 0.19247675151708513, "afterRecentZones": 0.1920395144388658, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1920395144388658, "adjusted": 0.18711281826064308, "playerFactor": 0.9743454038997215, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1265148259628583, "newChartFactor": 1.120766846244863, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7708955223880597, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2554391718611249, "adjustedSOG": 1.2303303884239023, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 238, "beforeSOG": 1.2303303884239023, "adjustedSOG": 1.2303303884239023 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 98.0, "goalExpected": 0.20876037859199179, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20876037859199179, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18841031339139594, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857318984800184, "modelSOG": 1.2303303884239023, "historyGames": 86, "seasonGames": { "2025": 73, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 99.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16161616161616163, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14501165318995068, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.68468937481844, "btb": { "id": "8483525", "name": "Danila Yurov", "score": 48.68468937481844, "components": { "Goal model": 60.411311053984576, "SOG model": 39.0745501285347, "Unit attack": 60.714285714285715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50.12853470437018, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 50.032873109796185, "Goalie H2H": 50.669772859638904 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.675871766303257, "unitPlayers": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 192 } }, { "id": "8483553", "name": "Marc Gatcomb", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.7692307692307692, "priorSOG": 1.1224489795918366, "currentTOI": 11.165384615384616, "currentFiveTOI": 10.892307692307693, "ppShare": 0.0061823802163833074, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03076923076923077, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.77 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.774, "currentIXG": 0.13646153846153847, "priorTOI": 10.087074829931973, "priorPPTOI": 0.024829931972789113, "deploymentChange": 1.0783097854526424, "ppTOIChange": 0.005939298796441658, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021262", "date": "20260411", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020699", "date": "20250114", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.45 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11353016934641026, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.14630883314710516, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14702044214161175, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13610913615189002, "goalProbability": 0.13672366998104357, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06145338291535518, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2887220550220322, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.745762711864407, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.892307692307693, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0061823802163833074, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.031123925018824557, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.00414987214829, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.494655864932943, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 98.63013698630137, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.992517006802721, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005417247516989307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9433368775474039, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.848840300509879, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.195412064570943, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021262", "date": "20260411", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020699", "date": "20250114", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Rondbjerg", "Nic Dowd", "Marc Gatcomb" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": -5.038656649670699, "index": 94.9613433503293, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.5984555984556, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.436293436293436, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.972972972972975, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.405405405405403, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.915057915057915, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.671814671814671, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.038656649670699, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5038461538461538, "attemptProjection": 1.4417243603549161, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 23.0, "seconds": 8496.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.892307692307693, "projectedAttempts": 2.6153846153846154, "onNet": 0.5685759926973984, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 24.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.031123925018824557, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.472785257100535, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.472785257100535, "baseline": 1.1224489795918366, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 49, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483553", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3326507460970558, "adjustedSOG": 1.2887220550220322, "reductionPct": 3.2963393600069613, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.472785257100535, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4362400569877696, "afterRecentDefense": 1.435182920296365, "afterRecentZones": 1.472785257100535, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.435182920296365, "adjusted": 1.3995707719754957, "playerFactor": 0.9751863349143568, "defenseFactor": 0.9478369959776317, "oldChartFactor": 0.848840300509879, "newChartFactor": 0.837617552487433, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8402665774017832, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.753604198526345, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2887220550220322, "adjustedSOG": 1.2887220550220322, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 229, "beforeSOG": 1.2887220550220322, "adjustedSOG": 1.2887220550220322 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.21739279063247666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21971254760258552, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1953861375607692, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18643453655156628 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863107086863848, "modelSOG": 1.2887220550220322, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 49, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 119.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10084033613445378, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11353016934641026, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.98108013271498, "btb": { "id": "8483553", "name": "Marc Gatcomb", "score": 40.98108013271498, "components": { "Goal model": 49.10025706940874, "SOG model": 41.38817480719794, "Unit attack": 39.285714285714285, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 40.102827763496144, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 45.51282051282051, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2904611616533135, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Rondbjerg", "Nic Dowd", "Marc Gatcomb" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 259 } }, { "id": "8483676", "name": "Stephen Halliday", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.1333333333333333, "currentTOI": 11.672222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 8.186111111111112, "ppShare": 0.49709239715701053, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 30, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2055555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.601, "currentIXG": 0.21675, "priorTOI": 8.510555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 1.8594444444444445, "deploymentChange": 3.161666666666667, "ppTOIChange": 1.3461111111111113, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 7.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.230769230769231, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13152191262372842, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.1379759265022224, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14071669460021125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12888033760936446, "goalProbability": 0.13126460573405507, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2384268124690614, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0490717763279362, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.88632507634883, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.478336221837088, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.186111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49709239715701053, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.368491258783096, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2308.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.562691131498472, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.453540484015536, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.54, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3763469170033102, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8675464079964548, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7928726231808924, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.781971491668339, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.040133779264215, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 7.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nick Cousins", "Stephen Halliday", "Andre Burakovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -6.904245893970256, "index": 93.09575410602974, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.623376623376622, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.22077922077922, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.532467532467535, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.454545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.168831168831169, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": -9.542412754912093, "index": 90.45758724508791, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 67.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.904245893970256, "zonePPFit": -9.542412754912093, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0686934287623497, "attemptProjection": 1.0357568791418428, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 5894.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.186111111111112, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5283932804287333, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2308.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.368491258783096, "projectedAttempts": 0.8004433196927275, "onNet": 0.5726169255581021, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5323503596041587, "ppAdjusted": 0.4365414610146042, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0522251539520964, "baseline": 1.1333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 30, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483676", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0846684257045913, "adjustedSOG": 1.0704814044162614, "reductionPct": 1.307959276044579, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5323503596041587, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5112024220258705, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5323503596041587, "afterRecentZones": 0.5323503596041587, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5323503596041587, "adjusted": 0.5112024220258705, "playerFactor": 0.9602743997505456, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7928726231808924, "newChartFactor": 0.7928726231808924, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6981757877280265, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1559287136039578, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4365414610146042, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4365414610146042, "afterRecentDefense": 0.43404436311234307, "afterRecentZones": 0.4365414610146042, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.43404436311234307, "adjusted": 0.43404436311234307, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.683333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.338650039875299, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0704814044162614, "adjustedSOG": 1.0490717763279362, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 295, "beforeSOG": 1.0490717763279362, "adjustedSOG": 1.0490717763279362 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.17508091988610397, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1693885591705866, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16061090524898258, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4791730698937319 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285980880618299, "modelSOG": 1.0490717763279362, "historyGames": 42, "seasonGames": { "2025": 30, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 51.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13725490196078433, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13152191262372842, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.90390793080585, "btb": { "id": "8483676", "name": "Stephen Halliday", "score": 50.90390793080585, "components": { "Goal model": 47.04370179948586, "SOG model": 24.42159383033419, "Unit attack": 20.238095238095237, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.62068965517241, "Shot quality": 69.66580976863753, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 56.244064577397914, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.10334896775496, "unitPlayers": [ "Nick Cousins", "Stephen Halliday", "Andre Burakovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 163 } }, { "id": "8483678", "name": "Elias Nils Pettersson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.6571428571428571, "currentTOI": 18.98717948717949, "currentFiveTOI": 15.815384615384614, "ppShare": 0.01529051987767584, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07051282051282051, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.045, "currentIXG": 0.08038461538461537, "priorTOI": 14.978809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.03761904761904762, "deploymentChange": 4.008369963369965, "ppTOIChange": 0.03289377289377289, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07178121559563508, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 78.0, "goalExpected": 0.06407373448983276, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06345506394935836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.062064161239573104, "goalProbability": 0.06148370843126474, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05804528083083668, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8926253750114675, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9182879377431905, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.815384615384614, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01529051987767584, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07640180919997434, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.23076923076923078, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.6346512397846276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.78481012658228, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.664047619047619, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009970249317796696, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0100178466524394, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9352017098633697, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8518616318986005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Tom Willander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": 0.333928221747982, "index": 100.33392822174798, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.0590717299578, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.691983122362869, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.852320675105486, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.383966244725737, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0126582278481013, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.333928221747982, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9501551614333612, "attemptProjection": 1.2253854351808617, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 12336.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.815384615384614, "projectedAttempts": 2.692307692307692, "onNet": 0.3524301119231359, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 55.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07640180919997434, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8570010675378806, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.23076923076923078 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0877702983071114, "baseline": 0.6571428571428571, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483678", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9155193218414097, "adjustedSOG": 0.9108422193994568, "reductionPct": 0.5108687856577143, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8570010675378806, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8553584639072817, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8570010675378805, "afterRecentZones": 0.8508366852345304, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8508366852345303, "adjusted": 0.8492058968012927, "playerFactor": 0.9980833120368005, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0100178466524394, "newChartFactor": 0.9927082611446316, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 89.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9893071000855432, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9108422193994568, "adjustedSOG": 0.8926253750114675, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 320, "beforeSOG": 0.8926253750114675, "adjustedSOG": 0.8926253750114675 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 77.0, "goalExpected": 0.06093843608321201, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06228159365935624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05911883767739337, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1262903332471456 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057770563760230445, "modelSOG": 0.8926253750114675, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 28, "2025": 70, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 78.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08974358974358974, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07178121559563508, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.510114951476424, "btb": { "id": "8483678", "name": "Elias Nils Pettersson", "score": 33.510114951476424, "components": { "Goal model": 17.480719794344473, "SOG model": 17.994858611825194, "Unit attack": 34.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 16.195372750642672, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 60.26478967655438, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.270325124009399, "unitPlayers": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Tom Willander" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 326 } }, { "id": "8483686", "name": "Adam Engstrom", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7333333333333333, "currentTOI": 11.393333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.793333333333333, "ppShare": 0.022256331542594012, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 15, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.308, "currentIXG": 0.0616, "priorTOI": 13.052222222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.23222222222222222, "deploymentChange": -1.658888888888887, "ppTOIChange": -0.13555555555555554, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04986948129441808, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.04335949474878186, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04545021022118278, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.042432912156368074, "goalProbability": 0.04443282113398121, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1999908977613138, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.869459509570538, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.558987029030265, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.793333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022256331542594012, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09546617363194491, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1303.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.500707213578501, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.568888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.048878431372549026, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.058063004392414, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1020489947488636, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.558987029030265, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Adam Engstrom", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 1.9354334797471324, "index": 101.93543347974713, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.46218487394958, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.84873949579832, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.277310924369749, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.058823529411766, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9354334797471324, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1020489947488634, "attemptProjection": 0.8775184981214471, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3238.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.793333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.41594265855777585, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 29.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09546617363194491, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9897837464351553, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9897837464351553, "baseline": 0.7333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483686", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8872035811944265, "adjustedSOG": 0.8872035811944265, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9897837464351553, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9897837464351553, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9897837464351553, "afterRecentZones": 0.9897837464351553, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9897837464351553, "adjusted": 0.9897837464351553, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.058063004392414, "newChartFactor": 1.058063004392414, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.48333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8872035811944265, "adjustedSOG": 0.869459509570538, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 325, "beforeSOG": 0.869459509570538, "adjustedSOG": 0.869459509570538 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.044401861383675675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044401861383675675, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0434305281082892, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784859830152497, "modelSOG": 0.869459509570538, "historyGames": 20, "seasonGames": { "2025": 15, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 16.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04986948129441808, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 37.5740217883173, "btb": { "id": "8483686", "name": "Adam Engstrom", "score": 37.5740217883173, "components": { "Goal model": 8.226221079691516, "SOG model": 16.709511568123393, "Unit attack": 68.75, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 30.591259640102827, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.876678038060847, "unitPlayers": [ "Adam Engstrom", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 292 } }, { "id": "8483695", "name": "Amadeus Lombardi", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.95, "currentFiveTOI": 10.320370370370371, "ppShare": 0.0683339203945051, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T15:56:27.240Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3592592592592593, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.936, "currentIXG": 0.21511111111111111, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 240.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 21.818181818181817, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.726943438283644, "pkSogAllowed60": 33.20388349514563, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 66.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 27.0, "L": 33.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 3.0, "R": 2.4545454545454546, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 21.818181818181817, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11087937907547717, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.1607993686148111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15961784855900019, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14853711585076665, "goalProbability": 0.14753050082554736, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10066150252192874, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4502188770858166, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.335546384353131, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.320370370370371, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0683339203945051, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.525757575757575, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3775966783011517, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8777730987465664, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9668487729131949, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 194.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2839.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.426148117501034, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -9.50972175680755, "index": 90.49027824319245, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.920618660376803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.312595313964223, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.204580713208827, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.978223604937028, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.003309406417827, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.384128421015987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.50972175680755, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5111111111111113, "attemptProjection": 1.4485192502885147, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 5573.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.320370370370371, "projectedAttempts": 3.333333333333334, "onNet": 0.5095047923322683, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9188523198373549, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9282213138840476 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 194.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3775966783011517, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9747377285913938 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.479815180699813, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.479815180699813, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479193", "goalieName": "Casey DeSmith", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483695", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.479815180699813, "adjustedSOG": 1.479815180699813, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.479815180699813, "adjustedSOG": 1.4502188770858166, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 178, "beforeSOG": 1.4502188770858166, "adjustedSOG": 1.4502188770858166 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.18711289374317075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1911981765515594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.170649897337316, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.33812183972692367 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862007972755352, "modelSOG": 1.4502188770858166, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 16.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11087937907547717, "goalieFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 45.46406254942981, "btb": { "id": "8483695", "name": "Amadeus Lombardi", "score": 45.46406254942981, "components": { "Goal model": 54.498714652956295, "SOG model": 54.498714652956295, "Unit attack": 45.23809523809524, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 68.38046272493574, "Goalie": 29.775280898876403, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.409923241024889, "unitPlayers": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 213 } }, { "id": "8483731", "name": "Alex Bump", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.8333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.3529411764705883, "currentTOI": 12.952777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 11.302777777777777, "ppShare": 0.2806176783812567, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 17, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4638888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.136, "currentIXG": 0.18933333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.641176470588235, "priorPPTOI": 0.8950980392156863, "deploymentChange": 0.3116013071895427, "ppTOIChange": 0.5687908496732025, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1332809324906637, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.20599588083947185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2037100736885312, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18616357140109058, "goalProbability": 0.1843011705392062, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18624008618843835, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5455765276394793, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.962644384369624, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.66223908918406, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.302777777777777, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2806176783812567, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3689505717727228, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0029891850709194, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 527.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127659574468085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.886089813800657, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.519607843137255, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21021319514172948, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.016855500362784, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9583207305200232, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9744737059409668, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.023019898556379, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Bump", "Sean Couturier", "Tyson Foerster" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -1.389308982665895, "index": 98.6106910173341, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.741935483870968, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.032258064516125, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.61290322580645, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.032258064516128, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": -13.737516509393444, "index": 86.26248349060656, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 43.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.389308982665895, "zonePPFit": -13.737516509393444, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7266687340932676, "attemptProjection": 1.6239678775343531, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 4069.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.302777777777777, "projectedAttempts": 2.833333333333333, "onNet": 0.5038863192027084, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 527.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3689505717727228, "projectedAttempts": 0.31171550021390276, "onNet": 0.5783628136569313, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4512871003326002, "ppAdjusted": 0.22403120548121014, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6753183058138104, "baseline": 1.3529411764705883, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 17, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483731", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5463674540765215, "adjustedSOG": 1.5455765276394793, "reductionPct": 0.0511473799424067, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4512871003326002, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4512871003326002, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4512871003326002, "afterRecentZones": 1.4512871003326002, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4512871003326002, "adjusted": 1.4512871003326002, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9583207305200232, "newChartFactor": 0.9583207305200232, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0679042586695593, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1698315100215602, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.22403120548121014, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22403120548121014, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22271299475280648, "afterRecentZones": 0.22403120548121014, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.22271299475280648, "adjusted": 0.22271299475280648, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.233333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.409090909090909, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5455765276394793, "adjustedSOG": 1.5455765276394793, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 155, "beforeSOG": 1.5455765276394793, "adjustedSOG": 1.5455765276394793 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.20237566063858006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1986329326418682, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18321196481280141, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30627433791254044 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859644953748933, "modelSOG": 1.5455765276394793, "historyGames": 23, "seasonGames": { "2025": 17, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 34.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14705882352941177, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1332809324906637, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 48.574372112145426, "btb": { "id": "8483731", "name": "Alex Bump", "score": 48.574372112145426, "components": { "Goal model": 66.58097686375321, "SOG model": 60.411311053984576, "Unit attack": 8.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 62.98200514138817, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 52.01804368471035, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9288345001471112, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Bump", "Sean Couturier", "Tyson Foerster" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 193 } }, { "id": "8483756", "name": "Jared Wright", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.391304347826087, "currentTOI": 9.5, "currentFiveTOI": 9.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:16:35.058Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 23, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.721, "currentIXG": 0.24033333333333332, "priorTOI": 11.431159420289855, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -1.9311594202898554, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09322100380958577, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 38.0, "goalExpected": 0.16736117541296847, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1695052741531738, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1541059599711467, "goalProbability": 0.15591769735073277, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18117373795860647, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7953161688198747, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.720848056537102, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.270454545454545, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.07980356969863, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Position_Factor": 0.983841396370114, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 442.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.915540756867516, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.316666666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9882576812401374, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0191918306444687, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 17.307692307692307, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": 10.101134936608318, "index": 110.10113493660832, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.771929824561402, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.6786428744578785, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.270321664009714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.96491228070175, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.618965717652287, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.596491228070175, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.0634547792524245, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0218618486646136, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.824561403508772, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.010941567329667, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.101134936608318, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3, "attemptProjection": 1.9514451172518654, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1698.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5174917491749175, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.070711477292103, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0565783524353733 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9464343214140388, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061416390973399 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1257225586259327, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1257225586259327, "baseline": 1.391304347826087, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 23, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9254658385093167, "gaa": 2.4369605686241327, "gsax": 3.807, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3582.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.951 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3516.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.825 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 42.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.154 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3444.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.452 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483756", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8319552743059946, "adjustedSOG": 1.8319552743059946, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8319552743059946, "adjustedSOG": 1.7953161688198747, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.7953161688198747, "adjustedSOG": 1.7953161688198747 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 38.0, "goalExpected": 0.1451980889943125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1451980889943125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1351490413150666, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864498525722837, "modelSOG": 1.7953161688198747, "historyGames": 26, "seasonGames": { "2025": 23, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 38.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09322100380958577, "goalieFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483760", "name": "Hunter McDonald", "position": "D", "priorGP": 1, "priorSOG": 0, "priorTOI": 15.183333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.910828025477707, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1001.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "inputs": null, "team": "PHI", "isHome": true, "opponent": "CBJ", "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "currentGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 11.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.466666666666667, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.012333333333333333, "currentIXGTotal": 0.037, "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.22418711062255614, "deploymentChange": -4.050000000000001, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.05725623339394119, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.012836109529718386, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01269367526921901, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01275407803930968, "goalProbability": 0.01261345038162372, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.014062765768596032, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Defense pair 3", "lineMates": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Cam York" ], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 2 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.34823169033695345, "attemptProjection": 0.3990586784049004, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1884.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.466666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.3954067832729538, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3736451843709269, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3736451843709269, "baseline": 0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483760", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.22418711062255614, "adjustedSOG": 0.22418711062255614, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3736451843709269, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3736451843709269, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3736451843709269, "afterRecentZones": 0.3736451843709269, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3736451843709269, "adjusted": 0.3736451843709269, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 31.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.22418711062255614, "adjustedSOG": 0.22418711062255614, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 390, "beforeSOG": 0.22418711062255614, "adjustedSOG": 0.22418711062255614 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578287957278806, "modelSOG": 0.22418711062255614, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05725623339394119, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 24.395273100141534, "btb": { "id": "8483760", "name": "Hunter McDonald", "score": 24.395273100141534, "components": { "Goal model": 0.0, "SOG model": 0.0, "Unit attack": 12.5, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 33.419023136246786, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8561824084778504, "unitPlayers": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Cam York" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 387 } }, { "id": "8483766", "name": "David Spacek", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0, "currentTOI": 13.030555555555557, "currentFiveTOI": 11.263888888888888, "ppShare": 0.1162349968414403, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.122, "currentIXG": 0.02033333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.75, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.280555555555557, "ppTOIChange": 0.5111111111111112, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05355373633470958, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.0320280342639582, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.033346243042204016, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03152056890938891, "goalProbability": 0.0327963859156683, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12758170062793922, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5980541500182872, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.2145499383477185, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.565217391304348, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.263888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1162349968414403, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.48964613332901386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 0.9909652517222882, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1583.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.6, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.88997113997114, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.2145499383477185, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.565217391304348, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 8 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2058199560391143, "attemptProjection": 0.8289802061827695, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 4055.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.263888888888888, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.44927599189110917, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 184.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.48964613332901386, "projectedAttempts": 0.3193344347797917, "onNet": 0.4252136752136752, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8572595203161895, "ppAdjusted": 0.16014056079475242, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0174000811109418, "baseline": 0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483766", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6104400486665651, "adjustedSOG": 0.6102593367533543, "reductionPct": 0.02960354806430532, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8572595203161895, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8569583337941714, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8572595203161895, "afterRecentZones": 0.8572595203161895, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8572595203161895, "adjusted": 0.8569583337941714, "playerFactor": 0.9996486635436759, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9976763258611262, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1201726829619618, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.16014056079475242, "afterPlayerForm": 0.16014056079475242, "afterRecentDefense": 0.16014056079475242, "afterRecentZones": 0.16014056079475242, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.16014056079475242, "adjusted": 0.16014056079475242, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.066666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6102593367533543, "adjustedSOG": 0.5980541500182872, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5980541500182872, "adjustedSOG": 0.5980541500182872 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.03819710246260583, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03819710246260583, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037476793501060396, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783803524148635, "modelSOG": 0.5980541500182872, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05355373633470958, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483768", "name": "Victor Mancini", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": 12.775, "currentFiveTOI": 11.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 24, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.105, "currentIXG": 0.02625, "priorTOI": 13.734722222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.09791666666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.9597222222222221, "ppTOIChange": -0.09791666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05520280052662964, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.02171704511074335, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0215073539456638, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021482927927067273, "goalProbability": 0.02127772002778425, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.020520789928302197, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.3934047711993728, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1378.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.2777602024675736, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 25.53191489361702, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.170833333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02595104450597399, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0142024485162995, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9390763412187957, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jamie Oleksiak", "Victor Mancini" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 0.47341495054331517, "index": 100.47341495054332, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.47341495054331517, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.5603336888867555, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2744.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.5000000000000002, "onNet": 0.3563671341690456, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.28016684444337775, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.28016684444337775, "baseline": 0.5833333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 24, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483768", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.40143343999936, "adjustedSOG": 0.40143343999936, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.28016684444337775, "afterPlayerForm": 0.28016684444337775, "afterRecentDefense": 0.28016684444337775, "afterRecentZones": 0.28016684444337775, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.28016684444337775, "adjusted": 0.28016684444337775, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0142024485162995, "newChartFactor": 0.9940418673680029, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.40143343999936, "adjustedSOG": 0.3934047711993728, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 388, "beforeSOG": 0.3934047711993728, "adjustedSOG": 0.3934047711993728 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.021034392015299455, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02149801571178484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020814712165042697, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.04538682825149208 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578359487425478, "modelSOG": 0.3934047711993728, "historyGames": 59, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 24, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 41.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04878048780487805, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05520280052662964, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 26.498634318766065, "btb": { "id": "8483768", "name": "Victor Mancini", "score": 26.498634318766065, "components": { "Goal model": 0.7712082262210797, "SOG model": 0.5141388174807198, "Unit attack": 10.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 27.249357326478147, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8284263831155327, "unitPlayers": [ "Jamie Oleksiak", "Victor Mancini" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 383 } }, { "id": "8483771", "name": "Sandis Vilmanis", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 0.7894736842105263, "currentTOI": 12.97272727272727, "currentFiveTOI": 12.30151515151515, "ppShare": 0.04338487972508591, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3060606060606061, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.489, "currentIXG": 0.22627272727272726, "priorTOI": 10.397368421052633, "priorPPTOI": 0.2578947368421053, "deploymentChange": 2.575358851674638, "ppTOIChange": 0.0481658692185008, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12969286418852088, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.15339097120023637, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15430931847012672, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1422057166182457, "goalProbability": 0.14299310805179222, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07873914335465304, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1827248334747857, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.6510654021431215, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.30151515151515, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04338487972508591, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.23690225927661496, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 0.9790227125446014, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 202.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4656.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.806408544726302, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.855263157894736, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05044601397131527, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9448621553884712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1678938250168516, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1034986767703083, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.383360522022839, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart", "Sandis Vilmanis" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": 5.596460833895051, "index": 105.59646083389505, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.481481481481482, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.85185185185185, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.85185185185185, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.851851851851855, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.962962962962963, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 2 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.596460833895051, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5047709228686021, "attemptProjection": 1.4654710814315994, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8119.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.30151515151515, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363633, "onNet": 0.5269671704012506, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 202.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.23690225927661496, "projectedAttempts": 0.21110102311777568, "onNet": 0.4803470207839902, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4285594877535552, "ppAdjusted": 0.05656151439654555, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.485121002150101, "baseline": 0.7894736842105263, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483771", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2068620749742711, "adjustedSOG": 1.2068620749742711, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2068620749742711, "adjustedSOG": 1.1827248334747857, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 253, "beforeSOG": 1.1827248334747857, "adjustedSOG": 1.1827248334747857 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.13243283400792694, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13243283400792694, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12403823302850611, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860072344507714, "modelSOG": 1.1827248334747857, "historyGames": 30, "seasonGames": { "2025": 19, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12969286418852088, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 49.773502806957936, "btb": { "id": "8483771", "name": "Sandis Vilmanis", "score": 49.773502806957936, "components": { "Goal model": 52.69922879177378, "SOG model": 35.2185089974293, "Unit attack": 77.38095238095238, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 71.97943444730078, "Goalie": 56.741573033707866, "Team H2H": 45.750237416904085, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.068357938356347, "unitPlayers": [ "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart", "Sandis Vilmanis" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 178 } }, { "id": "8483787", "name": "Cole Knuble", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.672222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 10.755555555555555, "ppShare": 0.008991008991008992, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.049999999999999996, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.633, "currentIXG": 0.211, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13758650638847744, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.3287650864733019, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32511698641140835, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28018790951582045, "goalProbability": 0.27755716729617774, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2630742219642712, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.3895154772302236, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.755555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008991008991008992, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.043861266938190015, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1001.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9705644578371081, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9949605071004807, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.562737642585551, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Michael Bunting", "Denver Barkey", "Cole Knuble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -0.9811847387630621, "index": 99.01881526123694, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.44444444444444, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9811847387630621, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.653228018934615, "attemptProjection": 2.15191892459289, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1936.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.755555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 3.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.5330565314595975, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.043861266938190015, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.402573471763753, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.402573471763753, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483787", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.402573471763753, "adjustedSOG": 2.3895154772302236, "reductionPct": 0.5435003210929157, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.402573471763753, "afterPlayerForm": 2.402573471763753, "afterRecentDefense": 2.400272721088492, "afterRecentZones": 2.391805916687157, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.3895154772302236, "adjusted": 2.3895154772302236, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 0.9705644578371081, "newChartFactor": 0.9626868037639813, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 32.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.3895154772302236, "adjustedSOG": 2.3895154772302236, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 41, "beforeSOG": 2.3895154772302236, "adjustedSOG": 2.3895154772302236 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.38312451089765776, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3760390203369918, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31827198856529326, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.48475306758786196 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859342689955564, "modelSOG": 2.3895154772302236, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.25, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13758650638847744, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 49.48876679582032, "btb": { "id": "8483787", "name": "Cole Knuble", "score": 49.48876679582032, "components": { "Goal model": 91.51670951156812, "SOG model": 89.7172236503856, "Unit attack": 2.380952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 66.58097686375321, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8162747588531591, "unitPlayers": [ "Michael Bunting", "Denver Barkey", "Cole Knuble" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 180 } }, { "id": "8483890", "name": "Braeden Bowman", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.0769230769230769, "priorSOG": 1.3888888888888888, "currentTOI": 13.857692307692307, "currentFiveTOI": 12.012820512820513, "ppShare": 0.2725399278722308, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 54, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3564102564102565, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.035, "currentIXG": 0.23346153846153847, "priorTOI": 14.131172839506174, "priorPPTOI": 1.258641975308642, "deploymentChange": -0.2734805318138669, "ppTOIChange": 0.09776828110161451, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12096015970483233, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 89.0, "goalExpected": 0.13799401608513995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1386651839218456, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1288960956581997, "goalProbability": 0.12948055642364883, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05844607654491296, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.140822039437396, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4578441835645677, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.013232514177695, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.012820512820513, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2725399278722308, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.372046361246516, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 0.9927827949489821, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1058.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.375764993880049, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.476213830308975, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.608024691358025, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2756346596926306, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9433368775474039, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.889537668984994, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9748067340821391, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9758988100686642, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7979691415007255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.75147928994083, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Connelly", "Tomas Hertl", "Braeden Bowman" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": -3.6820777005002014, "index": 96.3179222994998, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.877551020408163, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.918367346938775, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": -0.8397755305953609, "index": 99.16022446940464, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 73.05555555555556, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.6820777005002014, "zonePPFit": -0.8397755305953609, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9681340558432536, "attemptProjection": 1.0178174432148115, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9370.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.012820512820513, "projectedAttempts": 1.3846153846153846, "onNet": 0.5007280139778684, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1058.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.372046361246516, "projectedAttempts": 0.7002883129235525, "onNet": 0.5162439339246014, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6303235624764871, "ppAdjusted": 0.3626521870525454, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9929757495290326, "baseline": 1.3888888888888888, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 54, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8483890", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1513410052729751, "adjustedSOG": 1.140822039437396, "reductionPct": 0.913627308278242, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6303235624764871, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6303235624764871, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6127919527505218, "afterRecentZones": 0.6303235624764871, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6127919527505218, "adjusted": 0.6127919527505218, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9478369959776317, "oldChartFactor": 0.889537668984994, "newChartFactor": 0.8734076774854286, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.51666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.285005074192929, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.753604198526345, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3626521870525454, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3626521870525454, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3626521870525454, "afterRecentZones": 0.3626521870525454, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3626521870525454, "adjusted": 0.3626521870525454, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9748067340821391, "newChartFactor": 0.9748067340821391, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.0268199233716477, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.140822039437396, "adjustedSOG": 1.140822039437396, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 260, "beforeSOG": 1.140822039437396, "adjustedSOG": 1.140822039437396 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.14228427730984636, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14380256567196792, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13262535349637333, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13159256013335618 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861470184213308, "modelSOG": 1.140822039437396, "historyGames": 67, "seasonGames": { "2025": 54, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 89.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11235955056179775, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12096015970483233, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 51.549074708111384, "btb": { "id": "8483890", "name": "Braeden Bowman", "score": 51.549074708111384, "components": { "Goal model": 47.30077120822622, "SOG model": 33.419023136246786, "Unit attack": 92.85714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 20.689655172413794, "Shot quality": 73.26478149100257, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 49.40645773979107, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.7005773854509263, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Connelly", "Tomas Hertl", "Braeden Bowman" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 155 } }, { "id": "8484136", "name": "Max Sasson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "priorSOG": 0.9393939393939394, "currentTOI": 13.029487179487178, "currentFiveTOI": 11.00897435897436, "ppShare": 0.011676396997497914, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05384615384615384, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.23 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.709, "currentIXG": 0.13146153846153846, "priorTOI": 11.718939393939394, "priorPPTOI": 0.40277777777777773, "deploymentChange": 1.3105477855477847, "ppTOIChange": -0.3489316239316239, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1572006147649441, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 109.0, "goalExpected": 0.17795445718638, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17623619960261458, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16301945893044395, "goalProbability": 0.16158007450582296, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1439384424620993, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1320213820567324, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.869337370443694, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.00897435897436, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011676396997497914, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05834319975270768, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 1.004511900267846, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 42.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.731053881446983, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.5141065830721, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.952777777777778, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10674897740046037, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0157202178719733, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0799241041594119, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0969007463619935, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.852926463231616, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": 2.6641368053137313, "index": 102.66413680531373, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.043478260869566, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.616600790513832, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.05138339920949, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.25296442687747, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.217391304347826, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.6641368053137313, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3351238806975316, "attemptProjection": 1.3234145949116947, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8587.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.00897435897436, "projectedAttempts": 2.230769230769231, "onNet": 0.500164846692576, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 42.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05834319975270768, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1754230839584592, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3292692378046131, "baseline": 0.9393939393939394, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484136", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1733191184403438, "adjustedSOG": 1.1551238592415638, "reductionPct": 1.5507511053741596, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1754230839584592, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1754230839584592, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1457793060142212, "afterRecentZones": 1.1747237940465012, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.145097651960493, "adjusted": 1.145097651960493, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9747803336953302, "oldChartFactor": 1.0799241041594119, "newChartFactor": 1.0786455224769622, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3355181301102026, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8805582830691543, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1551238592415638, "adjustedSOG": 1.1320213820567324, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 265, "beforeSOG": 1.1320213820567324, "adjustedSOG": 1.1320213820567324 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 108.0, "goalExpected": 0.16655089802354914, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1702218832813343, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15342027339601833, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3102084359253132 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854928485873318, "modelSOG": 1.1320213820567324, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 29, "2025": 66, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 109.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1834862385321101, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1572006147649441, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.29739576882152, "btb": { "id": "8484136", "name": "Max Sasson", "score": 42.29739576882152, "components": { "Goal model": 59.897172236503856, "SOG model": 32.13367609254499, "Unit attack": 11.904761904761905, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 38.81748071979435, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 57.59368836291913, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9614017026153712, "unitPlayers": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 243 } }, { "id": "8484142", "name": "Denver Barkey", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.7, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.491666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 11.091666666666667, "ppShare": 0.521753460777851, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.638333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.917, "currentIXG": 0.0917, "priorTOI": 13.407364341085271, "priorPPTOI": 1.526356589147287, "deploymentChange": 1.084302325581394, "ppTOIChange": 1.1119767441860462, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11907637415678576, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.10290887839718768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10176696308714864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0977908195173597, "goalProbability": 0.09675998459023095, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10308349271287431, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8642258309082318, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.163786626596544, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.548325963360708, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.091666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.521753460777851, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.545294731880097, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0029891850709194, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1583.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3034.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9534109816971714, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.227526663280853, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.647286821705427, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3584638569998783, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9554449544018597, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9588631178612961, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0764914427011978, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.916140927922611, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0447368137148128, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.92102454642476, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Michael Bunting", "Denver Barkey", "Cole Knuble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -1.3712294046234632, "index": 98.62877059537654, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.826747720364743, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.33738601823708, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.592705167173253, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.118541033434646, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.422492401215806, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.702127659574468, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": 2.5497147567065923, "index": 102.54971475670659, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3712294046234632, "zonePPFit": 2.5497147567065923, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6680353812625007, "attemptProjection": 0.8994961688207707, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 6655.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.091666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.0000000000000002, "onNet": 0.47933972310969114, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1583.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.545294731880097, "projectedAttempts": 0.5788415056707739, "onNet": 0.5370511841100077, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4251115883271078, "ppAdjusted": 0.2586541867145279, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7837657750416357, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484142", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8702594650249814, "adjustedSOG": 0.8642258309082318, "reductionPct": 0.6933143917689399, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4251115883271078, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4251115883271078, "afterRecentDefense": 0.418870534977406, "afterRecentZones": 0.4251115883271078, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.418870534977406, "adjusted": 0.418870534977406, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9853190232374951, "oldChartFactor": 0.9588631178612961, "newChartFactor": 0.9588631178612961, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3918434418882581, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9305477920626049, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2586541867145279, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2586541867145279, "afterRecentDefense": 0.25492996130357504, "afterRecentZones": 0.258562082453182, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2548391832029804, "adjusted": 0.2548391832029804, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.0764914427011978, "newChartFactor": 1.0755077147909442, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.676906779661017, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8642258309082318, "adjustedSOG": 0.8642258309082318, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 326, "beforeSOG": 0.8642258309082318, "adjustedSOG": 0.8642258309082318 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 49.0, "goalExpected": 0.0747139284700041, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07333217183510717, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07199107470741432, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12831687991099044 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861456123517864, "modelSOG": 0.8642258309082318, "historyGames": 53, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11907637415678576, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.180321533350934, "btb": { "id": "8484142", "name": "Denver Barkey", "score": 39.180321533350934, "components": { "Goal model": 33.933161953727506, "SOG model": 16.452442159383033, "Unit attack": 2.380952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 23.13624678663239, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 44.773175542406314, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8162747588531591, "unitPlayers": [ "Michael Bunting", "Denver Barkey", "Cole Knuble" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 276 } }, { "id": "8484144", "name": "Connor Bedard", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 3.2794117647058822, "currentTOI": 20.833333333333336, "currentFiveTOI": 14.003333333333334, "ppShare": 0.7952176578786021, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.323333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.904, "currentIXG": 0.38079999999999997, "priorTOI": 20.889460784313727, "priorPPTOI": 3.3473039215686278, "deploymentChange": -0.05612745098039085, "ppTOIChange": 0.9760294117647055, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1282804303014704, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 429.0, "goalExpected": 0.33037920041826424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33037920041826424, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28134883106693925, "goalProbability": 0.28134883106693925, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.575445059249051, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.284694120447512, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.551272166538165, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.003333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7952176578786021, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5720936216858967, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.8, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 1.0210240499559582, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1297.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1631.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1141562853907137, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9994901537713387, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1083989928171938, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.113588237010468, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.026845637583893, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.237986270022883, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Ryan Greene" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 225, "fitPct": -0.016994874288712936, "index": 99.98300512571129, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.260317460317463, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.425396825396824, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.193650793650793, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.453968253968252, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 3.6132997605731276, "index": 103.61329976057313, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.470588235294119, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.23529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.016994874288712936, "zonePPFit": 3.6132997605731276, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2936567950618585, "attemptProjection": 2.5647800607749245, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 4201.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.003333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.6, "onNet": 0.5260866015295431, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1297.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.5720936216858967, "projectedAttempts": 1.817719190680564, "onNet": 0.4594132551820985, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9840687263039789, "ppAdjusted": 0.6451497016144125, "other": 0.8 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4292184279183915, "baseline": 3.2794117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484144", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.769295762633388, "adjustedSOG": 2.769295762633388, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.769295762633388, "adjustedSOG": 2.769295762633388, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 24, "beforeSOG": 2.769295762633388, "adjustedSOG": 2.575445059249051 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 427.0, "goalExpected": 0.32771563477793386, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3384924447491434, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2794321049763048, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.772372993866377 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286034762947785, "modelSOG": 2.575445059249051, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 55.0, "historyShots": 429.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1282051282051282, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1282804303014704, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.67431930751339, "btb": { "id": "8484144", "name": "Connor Bedard", "score": 62.67431930751339, "components": { "Goal model": 91.77377892030849, "SOG model": 93.05912596401028, "Unit attack": 21.428571428571427, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.37532133676092, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.24145299145299, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1554651434082257, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Ryan Greene" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 66 } }, { "id": "8484145", "name": "Zach Benson", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 1.7846153846153847, "currentTOI": 19.884848484848483, "currentFiveTOI": 14.18030303030303, "ppShare": 0.6705607476635514, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4787878787878785, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.212, "currentIXG": 0.38290909090909087, "priorTOI": 15.88820512820513, "priorPPTOI": 1.6705128205128204, "deploymentChange": 3.9966433566433537, "ppTOIChange": 1.8082750582750582, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10047355920744962, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.19862269826224868, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19499390886849924, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18014083072664003, "goalProbability": 0.17716032993461162, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2980500792028412, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.976865354716346, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.615877764718453, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.40766550522648, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.18030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6705607476635514, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.522433594118758, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9938645659748523, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2296.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3424.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.359540302891963, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.288564850345358, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.918205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3485400566949271, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0314277451074905, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1131761177466857, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1048967883369374, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1481607330349743, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.604758250191865, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.562970936490851, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Benson", "Tage Thompson", "Konsta Helenius" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 129, "fitPct": 3.7725372582228545, "index": 103.77253725822285, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.173864894795127, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.006644518272427, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54.75083056478406, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.083056478405316, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.839424141749722, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.146179401993355, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": 3.4965596112312483, "index": 103.49655961123125, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0107827632402433, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.332663594835793, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 70.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.311649945776537, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.832415650882979, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.089704453888473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -56.62911022391507, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.7725372582228545, "zonePPFit": 3.4965596112312483, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1604088970619433, "attemptProjection": 2.392492079452855, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9359.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.18030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 3.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.43762361174501746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2296.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.522433594118758, "projectedAttempts": 0.9204965838289436, "onNet": 0.5679144385026739, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3736066459298601, "ppAdjusted": 0.630116569600266, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.276450488257399, "baseline": 1.7846153846153847, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484145", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.0797164468005933, "adjustedSOG": 2.0172095456289245, "reductionPct": 3.005549206855984, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3736066459298601, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3736066459298601, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3282388856053582, "afterRecentZones": 1.36612891493502, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.321008130634222, "adjusted": 1.321008130634222, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9669717961405245, "oldChartFactor": 1.1131761177466857, "newChartFactor": 1.0998846646559877, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0287865671846874, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8434201266713582, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.630116569600266, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5870188007290641, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6258963357000809, "afterRecentZones": 0.6251992618405456, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6210119618289558, "adjusted": 0.5785369162764564, "playerFactor": 0.9316034985422741, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1.1048967883369374, "newChartFactor": 1.0877884501952293, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.594818652849741, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0172095456289245, "adjustedSOG": 1.976865354716346, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 86, "beforeSOG": 1.976865354716346, "adjustedSOG": 1.976865354716346 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.19636758020327294, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19610847951737173, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17828986521975682, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.021293324391707946 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286906063705951, "modelSOG": 1.976865354716346, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 65, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 257.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08949416342412451, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10047355920744962, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.716924810234154, "btb": { "id": "8484145", "name": "Zach Benson", "score": 59.716924810234154, "components": { "Goal model": 64.78149100257069, "SOG model": 78.1491002570694, "Unit attack": 64.28571428571429, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 24.137931034482758, "Shot quality": 92.80205655526993, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 38.31908831908832, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.753892139218213, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Benson", "Tage Thompson", "Konsta Helenius" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 83 } }, { "id": "8484148", "name": "Oliver Bonk", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 19.60238095238095, "currentFiveTOI": 17.185714285714287, "ppShare": 0.2542141230068337, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3285714285714287, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.616, "currentIXG": 0.088, "priorTOI": 16.466666666666665, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 3.135714285714286, "ppTOIChange": 1.3285714285714287, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06279186152280282, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.06682138175362048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06607990677059794, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06463774081699251, "goalProbability": 0.06394393591404252, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06938049029499987, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0641726512496266, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9925187032418954, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.451612903225806, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.185714285714287, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2542141230068337, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2401448513521405, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0098795729740562, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 558.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2195.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.733333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0446950710108605, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1683750073669688, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6494940202391906, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.382899628252789, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Oliver Bonk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 5.612500245565627, "index": 105.61250024556563, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.612500245565627, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1151296331207434, "attemptProjection": 1.145672984218117, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 7218.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.185714285714287, "projectedAttempts": 2.7142857142857144, "onNet": 0.37618202193429784, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 558.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2401448513521405, "projectedAttempts": 0.266697817495084, "onNet": 0.4252136752136752, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0081050615653406, "ppAdjusted": 0.12229624710408976, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1304013086694302, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484148", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.078240785201658, "adjustedSOG": 1.0641726512496266, "reductionPct": 1.304730274082555, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0081050615653406, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9892895398718053, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0081050615653406, "afterRecentZones": 1.00517997811244, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.00517997811244, "adjusted": 0.9864190508984503, "playerFactor": 0.9813357531760436, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1683750073669688, "newChartFactor": 1.1614407578580344, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8938699690402476, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2311863094982156, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12229624710408976, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12229624710408976, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12053536785092729, "afterRecentZones": 0.12229624710408976, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1205353678509273, "adjusted": 0.1205353678509273, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0333333333333334, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0641726512496266, "adjustedSOG": 1.0641726512496266, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 289, "beforeSOG": 1.0641726512496266, "adjustedSOG": 1.0641726512496266 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.049070587069709945, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048163077443990274, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04788607960519186, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08644447341707301 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781521044462704, "modelSOG": 1.0641726512496266, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06279186152280282, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 37.67652310014153, "btb": { "id": "8484148", "name": "Oliver Bonk", "score": 37.67652310014153, "components": { "Goal model": 19.794344473007712, "SOG model": 25.96401028277635, "Unit attack": 45.3125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.848329048843187, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4936044943421902, "unitPlayers": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Oliver Bonk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 291 } }, { "id": "8484152", "name": "Luca Cagnoni", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 17.904166666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 14.327083333333333, "ppShare": 0.591112922951488, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0208333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.783, "currentIXG": 0.097875, "priorTOI": 18.033333333333335, "priorPPTOI": 2.783333333333333, "deploymentChange": -0.12916666666666998, "ppTOIChange": 0.23750000000000027, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055150415878430996, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.08076518315113074, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08076518315113074, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07758973651233257, "goalProbability": 0.07758973651233257, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4644528398328456, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.140904464155882, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.9655172413793105, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.327083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.591112922951488, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.936047439334231, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1450.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2453.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.355150613611007, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.93888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5538702971178038, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8138860290647834, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.140904464155882, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.9655172413793105, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Luca Cagnoni", "Dmitry Orlov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -6.203799031173887, "index": 93.79620096882611, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 12.654454284501142, "index": 112.65445428450114, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.203799031173887, "zonePPFit": 12.654454284501142, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4169307218124991, "attemptProjection": 1.6888269334830581, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6877.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.327083333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.875, "onNet": 0.3993316848225623, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1450.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.936047439334231, "projectedAttempts": 1.0934245636141273, "onNet": 0.391713747645951, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.673999718431199, "ppAdjusted": 0.37887910921657975, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5528788276477785, "baseline": 1.3333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484152", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4650606299220004, "adjustedSOG": 1.4644528398328456, "reductionPct": 0.041485661189810674, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.673999718431199, "afterPlayerForm": 0.673999718431199, "afterRecentDefense": 0.673999718431199, "afterRecentZones": 0.673999718431199, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.673999718431199, "adjusted": 0.673999718431199, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8138860290647834, "newChartFactor": 0.8138860290647834, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.83333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4142930591259641, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.37887910921657975, "afterPlayerForm": 0.37887910921657975, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3778661257346546, "afterRecentZones": 0.37887910921657975, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3778661257346547, "adjusted": 0.3778661257346547, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.083333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0261854210898798, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4644528398328456, "adjustedSOG": 1.4644528398328456, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 173, "beforeSOG": 1.4644528398328456, "adjustedSOG": 1.4644528398328456 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.07938368792253239, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07471693961298659, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07631455050563309, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.43206814348628053 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057835011530470125, "modelSOG": 1.4644528398328456, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 3, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055150415878430996, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.17874357326478, "btb": { "id": "8484152", "name": "Luca Cagnoni", "score": 40.17874357326478, "components": { "Goal model": 26.73521850899743, "SOG model": 55.7840616966581, "Unit attack": 14.0625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.362467866323907, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9364470181509725, "unitPlayers": [ "Luca Cagnoni", "Dmitry Orlov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 267 } }, { "id": "8484153", "name": "Leo Carlsson", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 2.757142857142857, "currentTOI": 19.69848484848485, "currentFiveTOI": 14.31969696969697, "ppShare": 0.8002694509936006, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.6, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.963, "currentIXG": 0.17845454545454545, "priorTOI": 19.150238095238095, "priorPPTOI": 3.2214285714285715, "deploymentChange": 0.5482467532467545, "ppTOIChange": 0.37857142857142856, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 23.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.23076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15403976109373815, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 321.0, "goalExpected": 0.31522995998794684, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31522995998794684, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2703789286769527, "goalProbability": 0.2703789286769527, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.0464194293064324, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.5709448735583535, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.5151515151515151, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.31969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8002694509936006, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7642511075990366, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9834267095119533, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2376.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.786766584348122, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.771618625277162, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.979761904761906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6152059780547368, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0470973460042345, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.215456674473068, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.8283392585068563, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 23.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020944", "date": "20250227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020203", "date": "20241105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cutter Gauthier", "Leo Carlsson", "Judd Caulfield" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": 12.273988682132114, "index": 112.27398868213211, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.0657986514764, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.030923041153223, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.41687979539642, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.457102999302487, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.351081143920018, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6782143687514526, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 64, "fitPct": 11.399963025229226, "index": 111.39996302522923, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.625, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.375, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.875, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 46.875, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.249999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.273988682132114, "zonePPFit": 11.399963025229226, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4547699185287597, "attemptProjection": 1.6904377029688715, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9451.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.31969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.4809361908809423, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2376.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7642511075990366, "projectedAttempts": 0.3802273846059633, "onNet": 0.5004483067797779, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3170629769409612, "ppAdjusted": 0.16463174289876353, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5726038107488156, "baseline": 2.757142857142857, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484153", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0464194293064324, "adjustedSOG": 2.0464194293064324, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0464194293064324, "adjustedSOG": 2.0464194293064324, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 81, "beforeSOG": 2.0464194293064324, "adjustedSOG": 2.0464194293064324 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.19773133103310028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19092929802372868, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17940970933021477, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5600708752924899 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285073942046377, "modelSOG": 2.0464194293064324, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 321.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16199376947040497, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15403976109373815, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.75138634798813, "btb": { "id": "8484153", "name": "Leo Carlsson", "score": 61.75138634798813, "components": { "Goal model": 89.7172236503856, "SOG model": 79.43444730077121, "Unit attack": 25.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 68.96551724137932, "Shot quality": 57.840616966580974, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 64.37070554717613, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.189097108847812, "unitPlayers": [ "Cutter Gauthier", "Leo Carlsson", "Judd Caulfield" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 70 } }, { "id": "8484164", "name": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.3098591549295775, "currentTOI": 12.574242424242424, "currentFiveTOI": 11.110606060606061, "ppShare": 0.26479750778816197, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1590909090909092, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.086, "currentIXG": 0.18963636363636363, "priorTOI": 14.338967136150236, "priorPPTOI": 1.8819248826291082, "deploymentChange": -1.764724711907812, "ppTOIChange": -0.722833973538199, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.2 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12610641241613263, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.1760062776363214, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16705376674363664, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16138728118511358, "goalProbability": 0.1538458848372784, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7541396347835183, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3956964936527299, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.34583390154098, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.705882352941177, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.110606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26479750778816197, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4355234588879446, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 765.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.643283409694683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.77709866533616, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.193896713615024, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4562332060023461, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.909509011575508, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1267009535763153, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8917043536883319, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1393923386393097, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.207646439845668, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.705882352941177, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake Neighbours", "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Pavel Buchnevich" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": -3.016366280816399, "index": 96.9836337191836, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.547169811320753, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.943396226415096, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.566037735849058, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.018867924528302, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.037735849056604, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.886792452830188, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": 4.223365119210513, "index": 104.22336511921051, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 65.88235294117646, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.058823529411768, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.016366280816399, "zonePPFit": 4.223365119210513, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.506372815706803, "attemptProjection": 1.3994699565628594, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 7333.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.110606060606061, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.5450387549835064, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 765.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4355234588879446, "projectedAttempts": 0.22518015041379524, "onNet": 0.5196963185790001, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3323537280042408, "ppAdjusted": 0.1205676581305904, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4529213861348311, "baseline": 1.3098591549295775, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484164", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3956964936527299, "adjustedSOG": 1.3956964936527299, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3956964936527299, "adjustedSOG": 1.3956964936527299, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 192, "beforeSOG": 1.3956964936527299, "adjustedSOG": 1.3956964936527299 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 109.0, "goalExpected": 0.17290601112927065, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16994861474150522, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1587833238654471, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2491493510358822 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860665844636252, "modelSOG": 1.3956964936527299, "historyGames": 84, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 71, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 113.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12389380530973451, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12610641241613263, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 47.58328092793033, "btb": { "id": "8484164", "name": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "score": 47.58328092793033, "components": { "Goal model": 59.12596401028278, "SOG model": 50.89974293059126, "Unit attack": 38.095238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 62.08226221079691, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 45.655270655270655, "Goalie H2H": 50.17472335468841 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.279482831447325, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake Neighbours", "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Pavel Buchnevich" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 198 } }, { "id": "8484166", "name": "Adam Fantilli", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 20.464814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 15.342592592592593, "ppShare": 0.7235056839017235, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.6537037037037035, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.552, "currentIXG": 0.28355555555555556, "priorTOI": 18.902439024390244, "priorPPTOI": 2.4674796747967482, "deploymentChange": 1.5623757904245714, "ppTOIChange": 1.1862240289069552, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.461538461538462, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13319180207343506, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 432.0, "goalExpected": 0.35405826230671544, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.349813545959016, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29816592430799704, "goalProbability": 0.2951805060892846, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.29854182187124545, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.658258667538007, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.51780325890163, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.59706031424227, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.342592592592593, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7235056839017235, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.617307692307692, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.06415404360949, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0994362292150242, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.015965183543005, "Position_Factor": 0.9949718475470846, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1973.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2727.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.819437501644347, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.047775947281714, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.450813008130082, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5696588616207596, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0609089566202177, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.163192375341046, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.88724286766793, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9014078628974707, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.004939380332286, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.430913348946136, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Valeri Nichushkin", "Adam Fantilli", "Kent Johnson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 222, "fitPct": 5.439745844701534, "index": 105.43974584470153, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.676339859892579, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.09009009009009, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.187136741378609, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.53153153153153, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7131724244500646, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.207207207207208, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.973513214308596, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.684684684684684, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8202238507570172, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.081081081081081, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.814948128742571, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": -3.7585710777356667, "index": 96.24142892226433, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 32.10031347962382, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.826301540713317, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.04075235109718, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.25883682554516, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.344827586206897, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.705086131760282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.9717868338558, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.424405709410792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.5423197492163, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.014251078996267, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.039483730134705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.439745844701534, "zonePPFit": -3.7585710777356667, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.2523736540656722, "attemptProjection": 3.2187523390180024, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8285.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.342592592592593, "projectedAttempts": 3.4444444444444446, "onNet": 0.5001607764038704, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1039795359328364, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.979062449680043 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1973.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.06415404360949, "projectedAttempts": 1.853896928154354, "onNet": 0.5234493625555078, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9211499881352982, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.020490263636383 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8893773995497587, "ppAdjusted": 0.901741152547634, "other": 0.4444444444444444 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.2355629965418373, "baseline": 2.6097560975609757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484166", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.9852402369494926, "adjustedSOG": 2.9166761768027287, "reductionPct": 2.2967685916235325, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8893773995497587, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8893773995497587, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7873543121439721, "afterRecentZones": 1.8893773995497587, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7873543121439721, "adjusted": 1.7873543121439721, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9460017424628352, "oldChartFactor": 1.163192375341046, "newChartFactor": 1.163192375341046, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0022914398354719, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7424889297466817, "defenseRecentMinutes": 232.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.901741152547634, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8929246861257895, "afterRecentDefense": 0.901741152547634, "afterRecentZones": 0.8982733677144162, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8982733677144162, "adjusted": 0.8894908063754814, "playerFactor": 0.9902228412256268, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.88724286766793, "newChartFactor": 0.8803385780527064, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9440191387559809, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3687436159346271, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.9166761768027287, "adjustedSOG": 2.858342653266674, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 22, "beforeSOG": 2.858342653266674, "adjustedSOG": 2.658258667538007 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.3568159008264432, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36295341878567483, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3000986628676289, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4282501617878798 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285803870306745, "modelSOG": 2.658258667538007, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 432.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13425925925925927, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13319180207343506, "goalieFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.765647606178874, "btb": { "id": "8484166", "name": "Adam Fantilli", "score": 57.765647606178874, "components": { "Goal model": 94.60154241645245, "SOG model": 94.60154241645245, "Unit attack": 47.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 81.49100257069409, "Goalie": 16.47940074906367, "Team H2H": 34.10423998659293, "Goalie H2H": 44.40680910196283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4151410858837794, "unitPlayers": [ "Valeri Nichushkin", "Adam Fantilli", "Kent Johnson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 98 } }, { "id": "8484185", "name": "Nick Lardis", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3902439024390243, "currentTOI": 10.952777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 9.555555555555555, "ppShare": 0.27871054398925454, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.152777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6, "currentIXG": 0.09999999999999999, "priorTOI": 12.671138211382113, "priorPPTOI": 1.4028455284552845, "deploymentChange": -1.7183604336043352, "ppTOIChange": -0.25006775067750664, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14023635753817004, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.15782043231276235, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15782043231276235, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14599688043409498, "goalProbability": 0.14599688043409498, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.125388844114881, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.555555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27871054398925454, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2519593178256712, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9834434281842819, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 415.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1489.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.740987983978638, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.431758910460736, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.960975609756098, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.32416457152399586, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560975609756097, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0152128815612702, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.970642559931751, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": 0.5070960520423426, "index": 100.50709605204234, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.32394366197183, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.26056338028169, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.204225352112676, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.133802816901408, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.950704225352114, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 10.050094610908658, "index": 110.05009461090866, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 92.94117647058823, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.5070960520423426, "zonePPFit": 10.050094610908658, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0170258913406471, "attemptProjection": 0.8806117191235904, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3440.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.555555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.504413277738669, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 415.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2519593178256712, "projectedAttempts": 0.18100616643262718, "onNet": 0.5700954178462829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7885019626854384, "ppAdjusted": 0.16031684254668038, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9488188052321187, "baseline": 1.3902439024390243, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 41, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484185", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.125388844114881, "adjustedSOG": 1.125388844114881, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.125388844114881, "adjustedSOG": 1.125388844114881, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.125388844114881, "adjustedSOG": 1.125388844114881 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.14818597516001375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15305901728929752, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1377292609091322, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41916602751000676 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858526278721719, "modelSOG": 1.125388844114881, "historyGames": 47, "seasonGames": { "2025": 41, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 63.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15873015873015872, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14023635753817004, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484188", "name": "Theo Lindstein", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1.1764705882352942, "currentTOI": 14.541666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.825, "ppShare": 0.009084556254367574, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 17, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.073, "currentIXG": 0.01825, "priorTOI": 15.760784313725491, "priorPPTOI": 0.06764705882352941, "deploymentChange": -1.219117647058825, "ppTOIChange": -0.013480392156862739, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06326193407834482, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.05105196509779692, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048455220937481405, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.049770709508591165, "goalProbability": 0.047300000636477955, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.247070887211321, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8069934288536478, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2549728752260396, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.825, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009084556254367574, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.049249306482010875, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1431.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.676843130886652, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.09313725490196, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016399610212163074, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8364570203791226, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2549728752260396, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": -5.451432654029247, "index": 94.54856734597075, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 17.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.451432654029247, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6374999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.48385064519843385, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 3318.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.825, "projectedAttempts": 1.25, "onNet": 0.4173919911539373, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.049249306482010875, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5606753225992168, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5606753225992168, "baseline": 1.1764705882352942, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 17, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484188", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8069934288536478, "adjustedSOG": 0.8069934288536478, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8069934288536478, "adjustedSOG": 0.8069934288536478, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8069934288536478, "adjustedSOG": 0.8069934288536478 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.040657600021640275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03996218961540914, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03984216830835429, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06679359656757283 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057812178916364136, "modelSOG": 0.8069934288536478, "historyGames": 21, "seasonGames": { "2025": 17, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06326193407834482, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484197", "name": "Oliver Moore", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.14, "currentTOI": 11.735, "currentFiveTOI": 10.645, "ppShare": 0.2362934362934363, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.02, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.233, "currentIXG": 0.1233, "priorTOI": 12.878666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 1.0090000000000001, "deploymentChange": -1.1436666666666664, "ppTOIChange": 0.010999999999999899, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.9 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11035051366864386, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.13108117075615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13108117075615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12285342714923145, "goalProbability": 0.12285342714923145, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1878618993089178, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.763738844527947, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.645, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2362934362934363, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0614229554229555, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9834434281842819, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 612.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0244988864142535, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.225, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23315614302015972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560975609756097, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9681883971838235, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9256825651123386, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.763738844527947, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 78, "fitPct": -1.0603867605392168, "index": 98.93961323946078, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.784313725490193, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.7420814479638, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.99698340874811, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.26395173453997, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.21266968325792, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0603867605392168, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2108190781348063, "attemptProjection": 1.2287205862282533, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6387.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.645, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.525148334094021, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 612.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0614229554229555, "projectedAttempts": 0.10406107406107407, "onNet": 0.5504875747090281, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0885502516274115, "ppAdjusted": 0.031219580554118383, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2197698321815298, "baseline": 1.14, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484197", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1878618993089178, "adjustedSOG": 1.1878618993089178, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1878618993089178, "adjustedSOG": 1.1878618993089178, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 251, "beforeSOG": 1.1878618993089178, "adjustedSOG": 1.1878618993089178 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.12400176808066163, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12807952131817443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11662172100268188, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3594864171319809 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863092460355893, "modelSOG": 1.1878618993089178, "historyGames": 69, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 50, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11035051366864386, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.83379918662695, "btb": { "id": "8484197", "name": "Oliver Moore", "score": 37.83379918662695, "components": { "Goal model": 44.73007712082262, "SOG model": 35.732647814910024, "Unit attack": 7.142857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 39.33161953727507, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.691358024691354, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9132710488371494, "unitPlayers": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 288 } }, { "id": "8484203", "name": "Bradly Nadeau", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.122222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 12.766666666666666, "ppShare": 0.22830188679245284, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3444444444444443, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.374, "currentIXG": 0.12466666666666666, "priorTOI": 12.96111111111111, "priorPPTOI": 1.1194444444444445, "deploymentChange": 1.1611111111111114, "ppTOIChange": 0.22499999999999987, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1289443916176379, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.1325139291059329, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1264907303638443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12410926635358199, "goalProbability": 0.11881768225487035, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5291584098711638, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0276827665283794, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.699738903394256, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.766666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22830188679245284, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.177010865183035, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 1.042724438158192, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 242.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1060.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9669849065478314, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.112032642530006, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.699738903394256, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": -1.1005031150722857, "index": 98.89949688492771, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 46.81818181818181, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545456, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.1005031150722857, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.112032642530006, "attemptProjection": 0.9843231769484804, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2298.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.766666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4957211319032405, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 242.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.177010865183035, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0481779097392432, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0481779097392432, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484203", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.028906745843546, "adjustedSOG": 1.0276827665283794, "reductionPct": 0.11895920792733827, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0481779097392432, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0481779097392432, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0481779097392432, "afterRecentZones": 1.0461379442139656, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0461379442139656, "adjusted": 1.0461379442139656, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9669849065478314, "newChartFactor": 0.9634371404169136, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 38.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0196615144036563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.033333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0276827665283794, "adjustedSOG": 1.0276827665283794, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0276827665283794, "adjustedSOG": 1.0276827665283794 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.1399910923151581, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13698646358796499, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13063402059752802, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26160501577884854 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860160168969462, "modelSOG": 1.0276827665283794, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 12, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1289443916176379, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484220", "name": "David Reinbacher", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 9.15, "currentFiveTOI": 9.15, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.023, "currentIXG": 0.023, "priorTOI": 13.141666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -3.991666666666667, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05560841842108959, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.06539935739502713, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06855279470288925, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06330668672895708, "goalProbability": 0.06625583794341396, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.294915121445688, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1760693659689538, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.004673560861004, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 335.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0415721844293273, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2311315993602596, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": 7.704386645341984, "index": 107.70438664534198, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.704386645341984, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1500000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.8502359386699107, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 549.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.15, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.40301075987435675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0001179693349553, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0001179693349553, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484220", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2000707816009732, "adjustedSOG": 1.2000707816009732, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0001179693349553, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0001179693349553, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0001179693349553, "afterRecentZones": 1.0001179693349553, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0001179693349553, "adjusted": 1.0001179693349553, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2311315993602596, "newChartFactor": 1.2311315993602596, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1381576998580858, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2000707816009732, "adjustedSOG": 1.1760693659689538, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1760693659689538, "adjustedSOG": 1.1760693659689538 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.06545066093117013, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06545066093117013, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06335474117551734, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783275515793317, "modelSOG": 1.1760693659689538, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05560841842108959, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484221", "name": "Calum Ritchie", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "currentTOI": 12.175, "currentFiveTOI": 10.716666666666667, "ppShare": 0.23240589198036007, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.862, "currentIXG": 0.10775, "priorTOI": 13.466153846153846, "priorPPTOI": 1.968974358974359, "deploymentChange": -1.2911538461538452, "ppTOIChange": -0.7856410256410256, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 8.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1406974060093694, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 98.0, "goalExpected": 0.15515225709290542, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15515225709290542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14371520787533046, "goalProbability": 0.14371520787533046, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.102737154106263, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.898911353032659, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.716666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23240589198036007, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1604448742746616, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0082313293627068, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 568.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2444.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.735256134309083, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.376220862091419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.721538461538461, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.429579165535318, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.071185892250445, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1413512959504448, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.898911353032659, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 8.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": 4.711709865014825, "index": 104.71170986501483, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.51668584579977, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.51783659378596, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.995397008055235, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.42807825086306, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.087456846950516, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": -28.826995848982676, "index": 71.17300415101732, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.137931034482759, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.448275862068968, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 69.6551724137931, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.711709865014825, "zonePPFit": -28.826995848982676, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0062499999999999, "attemptProjection": 1.1035310055943008, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5144.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.716666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.875, "onNet": 0.5002003521340539, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 568.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1604448742746616, "projectedAttempts": 0.24516441005802708, "onNet": 0.500465549348231, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.002959150170239, "ppAdjusted": 0.051931352626911426, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0548905027971505, "baseline": 1.2307692307692308, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484221", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1252419939859826, "adjustedSOG": 1.1252419939859826, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1252419939859826, "adjustedSOG": 1.102737154106263, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.102737154106263, "adjustedSOG": 1.102737154106263 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 98.0, "goalExpected": 0.13518003369604917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13518003369604917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1264413724581958, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858086389855136, "modelSOG": 1.102737154106263, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2024": 7, "2025": 65, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 98.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15306122448979592, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1406974060093694, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484227", "name": "Will Smith", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.75, "priorSOG": 2.4057971014492754, "currentTOI": 19.731944444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 15.059722222222222, "ppShare": 0.677468742026027, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 33.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.6875, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.248, "currentIXG": 0.43733333333333335, "priorTOI": 18.183091787439615, "priorPPTOI": 3.1106280193236713, "deploymentChange": 1.5488526570048293, "ppTOIChange": 0.5768719806763287, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13816103476536448, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.3559749548821333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3559749548821333, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29950983612572113, "goalProbability": 0.29950983612572113, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.5765220670696114, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.30425159088813, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.135593220338983, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.059722222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.677468742026027, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.364975266185715, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4166666666666667, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0330444604574947, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2655.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.780926522993382, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.300046591085572, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.234299516908212, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6190004066894973, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1097651536248028, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9168299644080959, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.139847306395079, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.017465946299173, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.278613472858077, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.565987599645704, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mason Marchment", "Michael Misa", "Will Smith" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 32, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": -2.772334519730137, "index": 97.22766548026986, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.924698795180724, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.16566265060241, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.826807228915662, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.692771084337348, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.27409638554217, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1159638554216866, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 4.6615768798359625, "index": 104.66157687983596, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.175438596491228, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.24561403508772, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.403508771929825, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.368421052631578, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.807017543859649, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.772334519730137, "zonePPFit": 4.6615768798359625, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8067289091571035, "attemptProjection": 2.596925967053401, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 10843.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.059722222222222, "projectedAttempts": 3.5, "onNet": 0.5114076625053809, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2655.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.364975266185715, "projectedAttempts": 0.8364910266224377, "onNet": 0.5157113459270735, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7819240267782706, "ppAdjusted": 0.5032367446603152, "other": 0.4166666666666667 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.7018274381052523, "baseline": 2.4057971014492754, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484227", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.5834153034428615, "adjustedSOG": 2.5765220670696114, "reductionPct": 0.2668264898819661, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7819240267782706, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7819240267782706, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7819240267782706, "afterRecentZones": 1.7819240267782706, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7819240267782706, "adjusted": 1.7819240267782706, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9168299644080959, "newChartFactor": 0.9168299644080959, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.61666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1380501065314819, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4948160363780072, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5032367446603152, "afterPlayerForm": 0.49306629542016833, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5018912745685683, "afterRecentZones": 0.5032367446603152, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5018912745685682, "adjusted": 0.4917480173715649, "playerFactor": 0.9797899311843535, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.139847306395079, "newChartFactor": 1.139847306395079, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 22.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8880192655027092, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5765220670696114, "adjustedSOG": 2.5765220670696114, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 34, "beforeSOG": 2.5765220670696114, "adjustedSOG": 2.5765220670696114 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.3266793520063816, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3074747729091364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2786850058448368, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.3986422674318766 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856600810045268, "modelSOG": 2.5765220670696114, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 69, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 46.0, "historyShots": 326.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1411042944785276, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13816103476536448, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.53018446848781, "btb": { "id": "8484227", "name": "Will Smith", "score": 63.53018446848781, "components": { "Goal model": 94.8586118251928, "SOG model": 93.31619537275064, "Unit attack": 32.142857142857146, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 95.62982005141389, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.43589743589744, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.255509895648057, "unitPlayers": [ "Mason Marchment", "Michael Misa", "Will Smith" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 63 } }, { "id": "8484230", "name": "Otto Stenberg", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.96875, "currentTOI": 10.522222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 10.144444444444444, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.277, "currentIXG": 0.09233333333333334, "priorTOI": 13.61875, "priorPPTOI": 0.24739583333333334, "deploymentChange": -3.096527777777778, "ppTOIChange": -0.24739583333333334, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.119257834782344, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 33.0, "goalExpected": 0.0964569186367179, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0915506640055375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09195098325334089, "goalProbability": 0.0874849166883833, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.44660665649575854, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8088099101644788, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.9430449069003286, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.144444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.999118302590277, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 654.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804238796311278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9656812858105781, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9467769927215829, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.5, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -1.143957139647398, "index": 98.8560428603526, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.346938775510205, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.897959183673468, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.3469387755102, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2653061224489797, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.143957139647398, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6311846618143886, "attemptProjection": 0.7731817054005404, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1826.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.144444444444444, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5002367797947909, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7021831836074646, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7021831836074646, "baseline": 0.96875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484230", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8088099101644788, "adjustedSOG": 0.8088099101644788, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8088099101644788, "adjustedSOG": 0.8088099101644788, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8088099101644788, "adjustedSOG": 0.8088099101644788 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.1038335468047139, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10205757062989167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0986246782626998, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16022434479379122 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861292026051752, "modelSOG": 0.8088099101644788, "historyGames": 35, "seasonGames": { "2025": 32, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 33.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.119257834782344, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484240", "name": "Tom Willander", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.6923076923076923, "priorSOG": 0.8428571428571429, "currentTOI": 20.497435897435896, "currentFiveTOI": 18.22820512820513, "ppShare": 0.22185154295246037, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0230769230769232, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.69 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.329, "currentIXG": 0.02530769230769231, "priorTOI": 16.98952380952381, "priorPPTOI": 1.1285714285714286, "deploymentChange": 3.5079120879120858, "ppTOIChange": -0.10549450549450534, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.05 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06416849515450722, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.04725235979464028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04679610976948403, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04615334533115887, "goalProbability": 0.04571805347756244, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0435291853596427, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.736379428578843, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.278801519201013, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.22820512820513, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22185154295246037, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.108520795301446, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 798.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.881567572759581, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.7974683544303796, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.872857142857141, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2991074795339008, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9836894192041546, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9108235363001431, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1867881548974943, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.05 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Tom Willander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": -0.543686026528178, "index": 99.45631397347182, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.4459930313589, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.4390243902439024, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4634146341463417, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.773519163763066, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.543686026528178, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6305701405154837, "attemptProjection": 0.9050623764913482, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 14218.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.22820512820513, "projectedAttempts": 2.307692307692308, "onNet": 0.3619569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 798.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.108520795301446, "projectedAttempts": 0.08334742821815383, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7530719180469877, "ppAdjusted": 0.014744340456428254, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.767816258503416, "baseline": 0.8428571428571429, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484240", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7978326122449068, "adjustedSOG": 0.7514075801824929, "reductionPct": 5.81889375664717, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7530719180469877, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6777647262422889, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7530719180469877, "afterRecentZones": 0.7510670238630233, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7510670238630233, "adjusted": 0.6759603214767209, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9836894192041546, "newChartFactor": 0.9774341493501855, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.91666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.367746524409958, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.014744340456428254, "afterPlayerForm": 0.01448088358933847, "afterRecentDefense": 0.014744340456428254, "afterRecentZones": 0.014744340456428254, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.014744340456428254, "adjusted": 0.01448088358933847, "playerFactor": 0.9821316614420063, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7514075801824929, "adjustedSOG": 0.736379428578843, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 354, "beforeSOG": 0.736379428578843, "adjustedSOG": 0.736379428578843 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 67.0, "goalExpected": 0.0475557070213176, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048603892900051945, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0464426481867002, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09989817000139109 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780307185957213, "modelSOG": 0.736379428578843, "historyGames": 83, "seasonGames": { "2025": 70, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 68.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07352941176470588, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06416849515450722, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.30005915628004, "btb": { "id": "8484240", "name": "Tom Willander", "score": 32.30005915628004, "components": { "Goal model": 12.339331619537274, "SOG model": 9.254498714652957, "Unit attack": 34.375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.2570694087403599, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 39.54008954008954, "Goalie H2H": 49.75247524752475 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.270325124009399, "unitPlayers": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Tom Willander" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 341 } }, { "id": "8484241", "name": "Matthew Wood", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.4507042253521127, "currentTOI": 14.589393939393938, "currentFiveTOI": 11.353030303030303, "ppShare": 0.394601152562936, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9712121212121212, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.904, "currentIXG": 0.264, "priorTOI": 12.321126760563379, "priorPPTOI": 1.5262910798122065, "deploymentChange": 2.268267178830559, "ppTOIChange": 0.44492104139991473, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13416986176714238, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 130.0, "goalExpected": 0.21860148989187925, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21860148989187925, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19635808622525808, "goalProbability": 0.19635808622525808, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6292890744068265, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.245829440811424, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.068408916218294, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.353030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.394601152562936, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0746454536263452, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9844154321502332, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3297.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.009214128330107, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.073515841279606, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.54718309859155, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37798498563815297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.033328283593395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0070252299167581, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8885126958896736, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0405876523651276, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.245519452134635, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.950207468879668, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021241", "date": "20250408", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Wood", "Jonathan Marchessault", "Ross Colton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": 0.23417433055860215, "index": 100.2341743305586, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.3097345132743365, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.477106579453636, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.12235475182762, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.11119661408234, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.209696036937284, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7699115044247788, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -3.71624347034421, "index": 96.28375652965579, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.199999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.8, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.23417433055860215, "zonePPFit": -3.71624347034421, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7369130991816732, "attemptProjection": 1.759778181704932, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7493.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.353030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.5067503011672829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1301.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.0746454536263452, "projectedAttempts": 0.8611134088841095, "onNet": 0.5088848909509832, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1966365811172945, "ppAdjusted": 0.3698908775078262, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7483456404433027, "baseline": 1.4507042253521127, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484241", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6292890744068265, "adjustedSOG": 1.6292890744068265, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6292890744068265, "adjustedSOG": 1.6292890744068265, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 140, "beforeSOG": 1.6292890744068265, "adjustedSOG": 1.6292890744068265 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 127.0, "goalExpected": 0.21770900245160776, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21770900245160776, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19564052575151325, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859068206442748, "modelSOG": 1.6292890744068265, "historyGames": 88, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 71, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 130.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13846153846153847, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13416986176714238, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 55.754218755998465, "btb": { "id": "8484241", "name": "Matthew Wood", "score": 55.754218755998465, "components": { "Goal model": 70.69408740359897, "SOG model": 64.26735218508998, "Unit attack": 28.571428571428573, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 78.92030848329048, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.01906640368179, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1933714725408686, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Wood", "Jonathan Marchessault", "Ross Colton" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 115 } }, { "id": "8484242", "name": "Brayden Yager", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.633333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.483333333333333, "ppShare": 0.24791666666666667, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.3, "currentIXG": 0.3, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12485957995720126, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.12485957995720126, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12745586523114494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11737916846172305, "goalProbability": 0.11966773176198178, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2288563300258728, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.483333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24791666666666667, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.339313446969697, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9886036540375441, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 119.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 480.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8925409245341296, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8925409245341296, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0, "attemptProjection": 1.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 629.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.483333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.51026045777427, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 119.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.339313446969697, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484242", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0, "adjustedSOG": 1.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0541693659736808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 223.41666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810451916898694, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.9833333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8857032158078264, "defenseRecentMinutes": 37.083333333333336, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0, "adjustedSOG": 1.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0, "adjustedSOG": 1.0 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.12485147489318488, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12485147489318488, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11737201473439057, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286053673559173, "modelSOG": 1.0, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2025": 3, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12485957995720126, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484262", "name": "Travis Mitchell", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.4444444444444444, "currentTOI": 17.18611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 14.58611111111111, "ppShare": 0.016181229773462782, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06944444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.281, "currentIXG": 0.04683333333333334, "priorTOI": 11.537037037037036, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 5.649074074074074, "ppTOIChange": 0.06944444444444445, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06337746808814267, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.03806674304830641, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03806674304830641, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03735131136090014, "goalProbability": 0.03735131136090014, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6006352761736208, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0567510950295183, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.58611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.016181229773462782, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07611212951018777, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9817757000624376, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1545.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.340702210663199, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.392592592592592, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0389924085576259, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1803133974367814, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4787697957310075, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Travis Mitchell", "Nick Jensen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": 6.010446581226049, "index": 106.01044658122605, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.010446581226049, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 0.8345249946528103, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 5251.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.58611111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.3702670889268799, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07611212951018777, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7047624973264051, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7047624973264051, "baseline": 0.4444444444444444, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 9, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484262", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6006352761736208, "adjustedSOG": 0.6006352761736208, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6006352761736208, "adjustedSOG": 0.6006352761736208, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 374, "beforeSOG": 0.6006352761736208, "adjustedSOG": 0.6006352761736208 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.042757952107580356, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04128706228890916, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04185672143695011, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1410360181204065 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781389085431265, "modelSOG": 0.6006352761736208, "historyGames": 15, "seasonGames": { "2025": 9, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06337746808814267, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 28.59897172236504, "btb": { "id": "8484262", "name": "Travis Mitchell", "score": 28.59897172236504, "components": { "Goal model": 5.912596401028278, "SOG model": 4.113110539845758, "Unit attack": 25.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 22.10796915167095, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.149376981680744, "unitPlayers": [ "Travis Mitchell", "Nick Jensen" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 365 } }, { "id": "8484304", "name": "Uvis Balinskis", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.42857142857142855, "priorSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "currentTOI": 14.373809523809523, "currentFiveTOI": 12.657142857142857, "ppShare": 0.15948136142625607, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:57:59.683Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 54, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1714285714285713, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.076, "currentIXG": 0.010857142857142857, "priorTOI": 16.371296296296297, "priorPPTOI": 1.1734567901234567, "deploymentChange": -1.9974867724867735, "ppTOIChange": -0.002028218694885453, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 321.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.77273552368851, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.27272727272727, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 90.0, "C": 114.0, "L": 63.0, "R": 54.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.363636363636363, "L": 5.7272727272727275, "R": 4.909090909090909, "D": 8.181818181818182 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05664160216249251, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.0423373815885011, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04259085425701528, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041453669871070374, "goalProbability": 0.041696604377333156, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.02429345062627819, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.7474608763192169, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0316027088036117, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.657142857142857, "Current_PP_Share": 0.15948136142625607, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.460479797979798, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8708447522223859, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0426209523988819, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.049705175348193, "Position_Factor": 1.0047311759594804, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 492.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3085.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.744068641258423, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.309310889005786, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.244753086419754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22953635407280623, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.054421768707483, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1341029567626286, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0316027088036117, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020862", "date": "20260131", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020799", "date": "20260122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020297", "date": "20241119", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020277", "date": "20241116", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.7 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": 4.470098558754287, "index": 104.47009855875429, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.492571665030539, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2732564362768528, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.042423594304623, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.848484848484848, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.249165273673412, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.762140859243658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.12743072334078, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": 14.1868147805326, "index": 114.1868147805326, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 89.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.674668590540335, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.15516298326834, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.745074855442667, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.69871743792598, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.383852918771197, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.647206987844967, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.470098558754287, "zonePPFit": 14.1868147805326, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.49285714285714277, "attemptProjection": 0.41989716057178816, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 5316.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.657142857142857, "projectedAttempts": 0.7142857142857143, "onNet": 0.4173919911539373, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.048065736934536, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.035942698802196 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 492.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8708447522223859, "projectedAttempts": 0.21240115907863072, "onNet": 0.405982905982906, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0943195046658498, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0194394715563717 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4082776896285317, "ppAdjusted": 0.04809946208593372, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.45637715171446547, "baseline": 1.2222222222222223, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 54, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483532", "goalieName": "Clay Stevenson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484304", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7627151799175682, "adjustedSOG": 0.7627151799175682, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7627151799175682, "adjustedSOG": 0.7474608763192169, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7474608763192169, "adjustedSOG": 0.7474608763192169 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.04190486330089964, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04190486330089964, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041038991382225956, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783458164410545, "modelSOG": 0.7474608763192169, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 54, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 161.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.055900621118012424, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05664160216249251, "goalieFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484305", "name": "Zach Metsa", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.5581395348837209, "currentTOI": 12.715, "currentFiveTOI": 10.309999999999999, "ppShare": 0.0009422110552763819, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.254, "currentIXG": 0.0254, "priorTOI": 10.967829457364342, "priorPPTOI": 0.037596899224806204, "deploymentChange": 1.7471705426356579, "ppTOIChange": -0.03259689922480621, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.8 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.060795921629521375, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 28.0, "goalExpected": 0.03128719199494865, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030715582448482975, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03080281257088167, "goalProbability": 0.03024865183944608, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.055416073143559064, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5146264939547551, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3278370514064015, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.309999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0009422110552763819, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.004949403742195828, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 1.0103867993478384, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9293190812590155, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.479457364341085, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00784431297171649, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1046176046176046, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1274215941168602, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8848167539267016, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Metsa", "Louis Crevier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 4.247386470562006, "index": 104.247386470562, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.0909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.424242424242422, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.247386470562006, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4599999999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.5462442050351587, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 6186.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.309999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 1.2999999999999998, "onNet": 0.38026284942010397, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.004949403742195828, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5031221025175793, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5031221025175793, "baseline": 0.5581395348837209, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484305", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5251290754640359, "adjustedSOG": 0.5251290754640359, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5031221025175793, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5031221025175793, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5031221025175793, "afterRecentZones": 0.5031221025175792, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5031221025175792, "adjusted": 0.5031221025175792, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1274215941168602, "newChartFactor": 1.1274215941168602, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.666666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1196380090497737, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3150420118192685, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5251290754640359, "adjustedSOG": 0.5146264939547551, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 383, "beforeSOG": 0.5146264939547551, "adjustedSOG": 0.5146264939547551 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 28.0, "goalExpected": 0.024105308605484106, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024073502428583235, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023817096115472763, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0031049139903156775 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781877968578736, "modelSOG": 0.5146264939547551, "historyGames": 53, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 28.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060795921629521375, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 32.85303620260637, "btb": { "id": "8484305", "name": "Zach Metsa", "score": 32.85303620260637, "components": { "Goal model": 3.8560411311053984, "SOG model": 1.7994858611825193, "Unit attack": 51.5625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 5.3984575835475574, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 48.588448588448585, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.559414149073786, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Metsa", "Louis Crevier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 336 } }, { "id": "8484321", "name": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.74, "currentTOI": 15.38, "currentFiveTOI": 12.41, "ppShare": 0.0010663822980538523, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.006666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.196, "currentIXG": 0.0196, "priorTOI": 15.627333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.005, "deploymentChange": -0.24733333333333185, "ppTOIChange": 0.0016666666666666661, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.036515228180530296, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 86.0, "goalExpected": 0.023423877175512878, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023889171498380286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023151667707198606, "goalProbability": 0.023606083963666383, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.04544162564677767, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6414824264470118, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4174053182917, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.41, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010663822980538523, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005080981254001782, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3751.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.086890243902439, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.994666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0010119875270480404, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.854138390952197, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.524544179523142, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikolas Matinpalo", "Carter Yakemchuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": -4.862053634926767, "index": 95.13794636507323, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.409200968523, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.927360774818403, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.389830508474576, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.317191283292978, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.600484261501208, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3559322033898307, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.862053634926767, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.525, "attemptProjection": 0.670246348459224, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 7446.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.41, "projectedAttempts": 1.6000000000000003, "onNet": 0.37812968959797805, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005080981254001782, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.497623174229612, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5976231742296121, "baseline": 0.74, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484321", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6545739045377672, "adjustedSOG": 0.6545739045377672, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.497623174229612, "afterPlayerForm": 0.497623174229612, "afterRecentDefense": 0.497623174229612, "afterRecentZones": 0.497623174229612, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.497623174229612, "adjusted": 0.497623174229612, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.854138390952197, "newChartFactor": 0.8484977740375031, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.666666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2318749999999998, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6545739045377672, "adjustedSOG": 0.6414824264470118, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 370, "beforeSOG": 0.6414824264470118, "adjustedSOG": 0.6414824264470118 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.023034142711514556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022285239580482667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022770882048177347, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07321240569509203 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791832441578634, "modelSOG": 0.6414824264470118, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 41, "2025": 50, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 86.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.011627906976744186, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.036515228180530296, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 26.632701181954165, "btb": { "id": "8484321", "name": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "score": 26.632701181954165, "components": { "Goal model": 1.2853470437017995, "SOG model": 5.141388174807198, "Unit attack": 15.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 2.827763496143959, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 48.588448588448585, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9389486303873644, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikolas Matinpalo", "Carter Yakemchuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 382 } }, { "id": "8484386", "name": "Dmitri Simashev", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 0.9285714285714286, "currentTOI": 15.045833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.2875, "ppShare": 0.004103967168262654, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 28, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.020833333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5070000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.12558333333333335, "priorTOI": 15.107738095238094, "priorPPTOI": 0.016071428571428573, "deploymentChange": -0.06190476190475991, "ppTOIChange": 0.004761904761904759, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.538461538461538, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05559616263133851, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 40.0, "goalExpected": 0.05588388922711277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0526442898621295, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05435107045575072, "goalProbability": 0.05128257912647311, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30684913292776117, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0051752959585034, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.549431321084865, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.2875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004103967168262654, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02162365393384545, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 1.0166432169250204, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8194727821757937, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.586904761904762, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003374736605923441, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0096618357487923, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9165281413179374, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9253834856784972, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.212004212004212, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitri Simashev", "Nick DeSimone" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": -2.782395289402089, "index": 97.21760471059791, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.833333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6111111111111107, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.782395289402089, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0858321094850385, "attemptProjection": 1.0266569722814012, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 10287.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.2875, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.4119569939183319, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02162365393384545, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9729112075498866, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.05624454088322, "baseline": 0.9285714285714286, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 28, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484386", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0051752959585034, "adjustedSOG": 1.0051752959585034, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0051752959585034, "adjustedSOG": 1.0051752959585034, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 300, "beforeSOG": 1.0051752959585034, "adjustedSOG": 1.0051752959585034 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 36.0, "goalExpected": 0.04240596177006981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04240596177006981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041519404898346816, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057834627683873915, "modelSOG": 1.0051752959585034, "historyGames": 40, "seasonGames": { "2025": 28, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 40.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05559616263133851, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.52397872585855, "btb": { "id": "8484386", "name": "Dmitri Simashev", "score": 39.52397872585855, "components": { "Goal model": 14.652956298200515, "SOG model": 23.13624678663239, "Unit attack": 60.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 37.01799485861183, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 48.717948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7075857856934533, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitri Simashev", "Nick DeSimone" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 274 } }, { "id": "8484387", "name": "Matvei Michkov", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "priorSOG": 2.0123456790123457, "currentTOI": 15.355128205128207, "currentFiveTOI": 11.402564102564101, "ppShare": 0.6093070825875735, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0551282051282054, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.46 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.098, "currentIXG": 0.3152307692307692, "priorTOI": 14.840329218106994, "priorPPTOI": 2.003086419753086, "deploymentChange": 0.5147989870212122, "ppTOIChange": 1.0520417853751192, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.2 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.138705174836641, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.23545409622931868, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23284140972954032, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20978806411623357, "goalProbability": 0.20772078866401122, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20672754522223502, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6975148656610903, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6429053294355747, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.085606378514477, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.402564102564101, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6093070825875735, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.9724117308111166, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0050386217075133, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2383.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.635977980910055, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.875192604006163, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.22283950617284, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4704235491458158, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0251359392633632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0101812664793053, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8943231625444744, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0355731214385164, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8679421816151044, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8538739462063427, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.713977334052887, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020535", "date": "20241221", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 176, "fitPct": 0.33937554931017644, "index": 100.33937554931018, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.77005347593583, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.649732620320856, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.858288770053473, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.46524064171123, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.074866310160427, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -3.522561248517519, "index": 96.47743875148248, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.740259740259741, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.675324675324674, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.623376623376622, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.051948051948052, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.05194805194805, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.33937554931017644, "zonePPFit": -3.522561248517519, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3904386014601724, "attemptProjection": 1.6055344226068864, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8894.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.402564102564101, "projectedAttempts": 2.0769230769230766, "onNet": 0.4422013629934422, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2383.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.9724117308111166, "projectedAttempts": 0.9729253671979315, "onNet": 0.5310855889135155, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8219178868657813, "ppAdjusted": 0.5222224713215942, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4979865120335294, "baseline": 2.0123456790123457, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484387", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7037301788250558, "adjustedSOG": 1.6975148656610903, "reductionPct": 0.36480619062883024, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8219178868657813, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8198633548764928, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8211308024517396, "afterRecentZones": 0.8219178868657813, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8211308024517396, "adjusted": 0.8190782379218929, "playerFactor": 0.9975003196522184, "defenseFactor": 0.9990423807212142, "oldChartFactor": 1.0101812664793053, "newChartFactor": 1.0101812664793053, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9827189958454875, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9954697310437168, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5222224713215942, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5222224713215942, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5147032649922065, "afterRecentZones": 0.5222224713215942, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5147032649922065, "adjusted": 0.5147032649922065, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 0.8943231625444744, "newChartFactor": 0.8943231625444744, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.066666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.711378870092563, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6975148656610903, "adjustedSOG": 1.6975148656610903, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 127, "beforeSOG": 1.6975148656610903, "adjustedSOG": 1.6975148656610903 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.1850787021890786, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18165586350337695, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1689611233004893, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2849385728431908 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285589427126096, "modelSOG": 1.6975148656610903, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 382.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14136125654450263, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.138705174836641, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.332854467142226, "btb": { "id": "8484387", "name": "Matvei Michkov", "score": 57.332854467142226, "components": { "Goal model": 74.80719794344473, "SOG model": 67.60925449871465, "Unit attack": 26.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 86.88946015424165, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 35.86391821685939, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1892289331978496, "unitPlayers": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 102 } }, { "id": "8484388", "name": "Daniil But", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.4827586206896552, "currentTOI": 10.633333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.031944444444445, "ppShare": 0.08727770177838577, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.44305555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.576, "currentIXG": 0.13133333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.469540229885057, "priorPPTOI": 1.3488505747126438, "deploymentChange": -1.8362068965517242, "ppTOIChange": -0.9057950191570883, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11450086822895965, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 56.0, "goalExpected": 0.13909591009146877, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13103249453045102, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12985543118918133, "goalProbability": 0.12281072992551886, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7044701263662467, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2148022302619408, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.48248650145369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.570532915360502, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.031944444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.08727770177838577, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.268963675213675, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.45986304032644654, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9342858341487754, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9809796665372826, "Position_Factor": 0.9523162012055845, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 319.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3655.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.7647979956154085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.737111205794632, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.010344827586207, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2832365144251147, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8972276910308931, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.042940929057434, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0231038448048455, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.196471531676022, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.570532915360502, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": -3.425743632303565, "index": 96.57425636769644, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.83847549909256, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6178084328373927, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.764065335753177, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7347141566554143, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.952813067150636, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.7999479226096327, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.916515426497278, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9813346502273674, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.453720508166969, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0819030792867892, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.074410163339383, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.093453269471823, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": 1.4313643019144706, "index": 101.43136430191447, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.702615002939439, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.909090909090907, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.353382422948613, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.754341391660148, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.308696003148526, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.802122681695309, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.464459232526124, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.425743632303565, "zonePPFit": 1.4313643019144706, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9561526144942403, "attemptProjection": 1.1161766587926882, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7223.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.031944444444445, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.4621731403909622, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9311036031680361, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.98371846015208 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 319.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.45986304032644654, "projectedAttempts": 0.2594838472061454, "onNet": 0.518082869840594, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9483026530271164, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.007333889202686 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8834620610286525, "ppAdjusted": 0.15270257561481176, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0361646366434643, "baseline": 1.4827586206896552, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484388", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2148022302619408, "adjustedSOG": 1.2148022302619408, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2148022302619408, "adjustedSOG": 1.2148022302619408, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2148022302619408, "adjustedSOG": 1.2148022302619408 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 54.0, "goalExpected": 0.12650940675067596, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12650940675067596, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11883413940302526, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862135443717704, "modelSOG": 1.2148022302619408, "historyGames": 41, "seasonGames": { "2025": 29, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 56.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08928571428571429, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11450086822895965, "goalieFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484390", "name": "Roman Kantserov", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 18.834848484848486, "currentFiveTOI": 14.143939393939394, "ppShare": 0.7647435897435897, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.6151515151515152, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.316, "currentIXG": 0.21054545454545454, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14287046020823438, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.2211082643133441, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2211082643133441, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19837011231733703, "goalProbability": 0.19837011231733703, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5476135793996726, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.399035886448848, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.035205364626991, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.143939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7647435897435897, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.435205031080031, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9834434281842819, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2386.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560975609756097, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9860517132600515, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9427616380437565, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.376838235294118, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Ryan Greene" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -0.46494289133161715, "index": 99.53505710866838, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.57894736842105, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.789473684210526, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.789473684210526, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 15.275496699630338, "index": 115.27549669963034, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.46494289133161715, "zonePPFit": 15.275496699630338, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5972449985358765, "attemptProjection": 1.4979821602634686, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9335.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.143939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 2.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.530964155980568, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2386.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.435205031080031, "projectedAttempts": 0.6046882284382284, "onNet": 0.5627169528098321, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1634863188595397, "ppAdjusted": 0.3841272605401329, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5476135793996726, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484390", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5476135793996726, "adjustedSOG": 1.5476135793996726, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5476135793996726, "adjustedSOG": 1.5476135793996726, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 154, "beforeSOG": 1.5476135793996726, "adjustedSOG": 1.5476135793996726 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.19270917490724404, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19904634633664875, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17527821094387974, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.520987797827549 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858714304571656, "modelSOG": 1.5476135793996726, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 18.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2222222222222222, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14287046020823438, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 53.678846860080796, "btb": { "id": "8484390", "name": "Roman Kantserov", "score": 53.678846860080796, "components": { "Goal model": 71.46529562982005, "SOG model": 60.66838046272493, "Unit attack": 21.428571428571427, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.09511568123393, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1554651434082257, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Ryan Greene" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 136 } }, { "id": "8484392", "name": "Felix Unger Sorum", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0, "currentTOI": 12.011111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.588888888888889, "ppShare": 0.24150943396226415, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.097, "currentIXG": 0.03233333333333333, "priorTOI": 14.583333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.7833333333333333, "deploymentChange": -2.572222222222223, "ppTOIChange": 0.638888888888889, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12485957995720126, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.07291471787629838, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06960050147689496, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0703198882606195, "goalProbability": 0.06723361572554466, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30862725350748327, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.5839737559688389, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6663168940188875, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.588888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24150943396226415, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.245102402838252, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9794663048394392, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 256.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1060.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9267676767676768, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.082319924281456, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.003059121745693, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.6663168940188875, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 2.743997476048534, "index": 102.74399747604853, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.743997476048534, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0030591217456928, "attemptProjection": 0.9789549517947127, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1906.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.588888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5194352768610194, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 256.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.245102402838252, "projectedAttempts": 0.5836417513304306, "onNet": 0.48958446349137463, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8453331963132866, "ppAdjusted": 0.1456738404569162, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9910070367702027, "baseline": 0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484392", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5946042220621216, "adjustedSOG": 0.5839737559688389, "reductionPct": 1.787822167897768, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8453331963132866, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8453331963132866, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8324164709903744, "afterRecentZones": 0.8453331963132866, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8324164709903745, "adjusted": 0.8324164709903745, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847199596806971, "oldChartFactor": 1.082319924281456, "newChartFactor": 1.082319924281456, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 31.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9279949742198932, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1456738404569162, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1456738404569162, "afterRecentDefense": 0.14087312229102378, "afterRecentZones": 0.1456738404569162, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.14087312229102378, "adjusted": 0.14087312229102378, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.266666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5839737559688389, "adjustedSOG": 0.5839737559688389, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5839737559688389, "adjustedSOG": 0.5839737559688389 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.10392336302986233, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1016928559538615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09870563275597227, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20125871742519424 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286053673559173, "modelSOG": 0.5839737559688389, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12485957995720126, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484403", "name": "Florian Xhekaj", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.8, "currentTOI": 8.494444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 8.483333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 5, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.35100000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.117, "priorTOI": 9.596666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -1.1022222222222222, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.8181818181818183, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12019616250560643, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.1172415797036902, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12289475408026933, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11062968660761952, "goalProbability": 0.11564326739919344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5013580791573922, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9754186594619574, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.072691552062868, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.483333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 1.0162873411382372, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.001736714136853, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.596666666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0643889841427956, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9047306365213762, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.912087912087912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Florian Xhekaj" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": 2.1462994714265164, "index": 102.14629947142652, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.1462994714265164, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9047306365213761, "attemptProjection": 1.3463532391995674, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1527.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.483333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.47862729976864604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5614973262032086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1255419378604716, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1255419378604716, "baseline": 0.8, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 5, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484403", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.995325162716283, "adjustedSOG": 0.995325162716283, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1255419378604716, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1255419378604716, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1255419378604716, "afterRecentZones": 1.1255419378604716, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1255419378604716, "adjusted": 1.1255419378604716, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0643889841427956, "newChartFactor": 1.0643889841427956, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 25.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0956331264567947, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.995325162716283, "adjustedSOG": 0.9754186594619574, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 306, "beforeSOG": 0.9754186594619574, "adjustedSOG": 0.9754186594619574 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.11749788327929687, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11749788327929687, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11085760618943083, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286098938809989, "modelSOG": 0.9754186594619574, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2025": 5, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12019616250560643, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 46.57611812813858, "btb": { "id": "8484403", "name": "Florian Xhekaj", "score": 46.57611812813858, "components": { "Goal model": 38.56041131105398, "SOG model": 21.59383033419023, "Unit attack": 73.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 52.44215938303342, "Goalie": 76.59176029962546, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.972631121330533, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Florian Xhekaj" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 203 } }, { "id": "8484409", "name": "Hoyt Stanley", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.916666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.204166666666667, "ppShare": 0.001544004117344313, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0125, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.081, "currentIXG": 0.02025, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05725623339394119, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.011290333304694065, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.011514605655107802, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.011226836682303131, "goalProbability": 0.011448566298825909, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.022172961652277764, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.19718959203992625, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.4699877501020824, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.204166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.001544004117344313, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.007356701241801602, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1943.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.782467621671167, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.4699877501020824, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -7.251079277627767, "index": 92.74892072237223, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.251079277627767, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2125, "attemptProjection": 0.18992773885699235, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2449.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.204166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 0.5000000000000001, "onNet": 0.40301075987435675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.007356701241801602, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.20121386942849617, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.20121386942849617, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484409", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.20121386942849617, "adjustedSOG": 0.20121386942849617, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.20121386942849617, "afterPlayerForm": 0.20121386942849617, "afterRecentDefense": 0.20121386942849617, "afterRecentZones": 0.20121386942849617, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.20121386942849617, "adjusted": 0.20121386942849617, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.782467621671167, "newChartFactor": 0.782467621671167, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 40.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.20121386942849617, "adjustedSOG": 0.19718959203992625, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.19718959203992625, "adjustedSOG": 0.19718959203992625 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.014385840533108438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.013918117416485359, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.014282858747144004, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04611505303902686 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578287957278806, "modelSOG": 0.19718959203992625, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05725623339394119, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484428", "name": "Charles Alexis Legault", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 11.891666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.183333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.092, "currentIXG": 0.046, "priorTOI": 14.294444444444444, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.402777777777777, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05949397302780761, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.06373302040510961, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06083614268875506, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06174453884190644, "goalProbability": 0.0590225868266896, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.27219520152168414, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0712517110820732, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.365126676602086, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.155502136752137, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0120511559231937, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Position_Factor": 0.9854834446421963, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1102.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8432795985907973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.009722222222223, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9512987012987013, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9449994798131301, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8989767778741791, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0110101134125677, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.365126676602086, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": -1.8333506728956621, "index": 98.16664932710434, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 82.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5521032325288786, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.992902397387482, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.767203055022804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.8802820038178965, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1754323198228036, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.479081284688263, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8333506728956621, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8989767778741791, "attemptProjection": 1.3385289257327315, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1342.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.183333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.5000000000000004, "onNet": 0.38520279848186934, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.011696190417638, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9813415068800615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.025008062626781, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9947416552354823 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1187528518034553, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1187528518034553, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484428", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0712517110820732, "adjustedSOG": 1.0712517110820732, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1187528518034553, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1187528518034553, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1187528518034553, "afterRecentZones": 1.1187528518034553, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1187528518034553, "adjusted": 1.1187528518034553, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9449994798131301, "newChartFactor": 0.9449994798131301, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 22.366666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0527674077284503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.71666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9670447476991432, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7684682274247492, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.083333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0712517110820732, "adjustedSOG": 1.0712517110820732, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0712517110820732, "adjustedSOG": 1.0712517110820732 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.059372234926479375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05809792868522117, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057644073925733445, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12016154885371652 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782312925170068, "modelSOG": 1.0712517110820732, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 14.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05949397302780761, "goalieFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484759", "name": "Carter Yakemchuk", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.25, "currentTOI": 18.641666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.534722222222221, "ppShare": 0.458108981262115, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.954166666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.122, "currentIXG": 0.09350000000000001, "priorTOI": 14.533333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 1.7083333333333333, "deploymentChange": 4.1083333333333325, "ppTOIChange": 1.2458333333333338, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 326.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.076923076923077, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.48910442121174, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.940074906367045, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.38461538461539, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 71.0, "C": 94.0, "D": 76.0, "L": 85.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 6.538461538461538, "R": 5.461538461538462, "D": 5.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.571428571428573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.076923076923077, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.846153846153846, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06326193407834482, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.0741693177361613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07564262474742166, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07148553343649211, "goalProbability": 0.07285251307252814, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13669796360360337, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.17241622180423, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0960344003822264, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.540197461212976, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.534722222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.458108981262115, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.764690170940171, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1827473602390146, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9502391771185901, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9992409582929248, "Position_Factor": 0.9804341282735521, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2127.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.936675461741425, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.633333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34576240507474715, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8806073153899241, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8555021768155233, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.919031622842581, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.150991357397052, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikolas Matinpalo", "Carter Yakemchuk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:24:39.008Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": -4.816594106149225, "index": 95.18340589385078, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.296960356960412, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.251079277627767, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.130426544086589, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.80244640890811, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2261943325424909, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.287479112200572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -13.304276757499835, "index": 86.69572324250016, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.18052039537102, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.552934340904557, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.56644057315549, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 24.117405555005163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 38.665208222320445, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.60698297428286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.816594106149225, "zonePPFit": -13.304276757499835, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.139526762095683, "attemptProjection": 1.1853969763072638, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 10465.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.534722222222221, "projectedAttempts": 2.0833333333333335, "onNet": 0.38608746017955403, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9593472367210137, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9824849878397542 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2127.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.1827473602390146, "projectedAttempts": 0.7388707566394407, "onNet": 0.46953405017921146, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635638069149578, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0288523090992228 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6978172070383164, "ppAdjusted": 0.38131132882982377, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1624618692014734, "baseline": 1.25, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 4, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478499", "goalieName": "Adin Hill", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484759", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1974771215208841, "adjustedSOG": 1.196343083473704, "reductionPct": 0.09470227253609576, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6978172070383164, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6978172070383164, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6978172070383164, "afterRecentZones": 0.6978172070383164, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6978172070383164, "adjusted": 0.6978172070383164, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8555021768155233, "newChartFactor": 0.8501519859336161, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.277053824362606, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.5019969237347297, "defenseRecentMinutes": 262.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.38131132882982377, "afterPlayerForm": 0.38131132882982377, "afterRecentDefense": 0.37942126541785715, "afterRecentZones": 0.38131132882982377, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.37942126541785715, "adjusted": 0.37942126541785715, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9890089980544747, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2309027777777777, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8777191558441558, "defenseRecentMinutes": 12.833333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.196343083473704, "adjustedSOG": 1.17241622180423, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 257, "beforeSOG": 1.17241622180423, "adjustedSOG": 1.17241622180423 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.07852662186985204, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07597350610061218, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07552255171435883, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23633135743500455 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057812178916364136, "modelSOG": 1.17241622180423, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2025": 4, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06326193407834482, "goalieFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 35.31797347351136, "btb": { "id": "8484759", "name": "Carter Yakemchuk", "score": 35.31797347351136, "components": { "Goal model": 24.42159383033419, "SOG model": 34.19023136246787, "Unit attack": 15.625, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 21.59383033419023, "Goalie": 69.8501872659176, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9389486303873644, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikolas Matinpalo", "Carter Yakemchuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 310 } }, { "id": "8484762", "name": "Beckett Sennecke", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.4146341463414633, "currentTOI": 20.687878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 15.612121212121211, "ppShare": 0.7766924890535534, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4939393939393937, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.35, "currentIXG": 0.39545454545454545, "priorTOI": 17.445121951219512, "priorPPTOI": 2.254065040650407, "deploymentChange": 3.242756836659275, "ppTOIChange": 1.2398743532889869, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1284056862928677, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 226.0, "goalExpected": 0.3241606100739395, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3241606100739395, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2768659095672269, "goalProbability": 0.2768659095672269, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.5245035436716874, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.9394409937888195, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.366869037294016, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.612121212121211, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7766924890535534, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6533514537556306, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0249616817777094, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2306.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.5812120263521106, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.063119927862939, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.284349593495934, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4304656326175727, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.391288909930169, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.750607681088965, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020374", "date": "20251126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeff Malott", "Mikael Granlund", "Beckett Sennecke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": 10.363227463073088, "index": 110.36322746307309, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 32.40088105726872, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.958149779735683, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.97797356828194, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 85 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.081497797356828, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.876651982378855, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7048458149779736, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": 12.928528009680775, "index": 112.92852800968078, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.318181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.681818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.52272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.613636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.136363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.363227463073088, "zonePPFit": 12.928528009680775, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8877104202634682, "attemptProjection": 2.941177182720986, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 10304.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.612121212121211, "projectedAttempts": 2.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.5191296907468524, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2306.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6533514537556306, "projectedAttempts": 1.5209095384238531, "onNet": 0.47664230456896184, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.712981581150769, "ppAdjusted": 0.7469167657960037, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.914443801492227, "baseline": 2.4146341463414633, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484762", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.7145199394319217, "adjustedSOG": 2.7145199394319217, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.7145199394319217, "adjustedSOG": 2.7145199394319217, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 26, "beforeSOG": 2.7145199394319217, "adjustedSOG": 2.5245035436716874 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.3702417271367425, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.357505270874233, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30943261841576886, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8851630799131871 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286025373147487, "modelSOG": 2.5245035436716874, "historyGames": 93, "seasonGames": { "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 226.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12831858407079647, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1284056862928677, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.68433763146112, "btb": { "id": "8484762", "name": "Beckett Sennecke", "score": 63.68433763146112, "components": { "Goal model": 91.00257069408741, "SOG model": 92.54498714652956, "Unit attack": 30.952380952380953, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 68.96551724137932, "Shot quality": 94.08740359897172, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.040293040293044, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.20863309298682, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeff Malott", "Mikael Granlund", "Beckett Sennecke" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 59 } }, { "id": "8484783", "name": "Artyom Levshunov", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.2388059701492538, "currentTOI": 20.343939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 17.604545454545455, "ppShare": 0.08076923076923077, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.38181818181818183, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.283, "currentIXG": 0.11663636363636364, "priorTOI": 19.591293532338305, "priorPPTOI": 2.646268656716418, "deploymentChange": 0.7526458616010885, "ppTOIChange": -2.2644504748982364, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04014442685919123, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.0524320021745507, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0524320021745507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05108115672003814, "goalProbability": 0.05108115672003814, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3060842133444528, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.027885360185903, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.604545454545455, "Current_PP_Share": 0.08076923076923077, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3628129370629371, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 0.9969010541927208, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 252.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.441956816189945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.414551607445008, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.610696517412936, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6114903799753608, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0126984126984127, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0516960492016831, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0650509196677362, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.024219841639497, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": 1.7232016400561037, "index": 101.7232016400561, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.12318029115341, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.29451287793953, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.562150055991042, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.5834266517357225, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.85330347144457, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5834266517357225, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.7232016400561037, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4405147232436886, "attemptProjection": 1.2613580277054826, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 11619.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.604545454545455, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363633, "onNet": 0.43363894096666517, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 252.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3628129370629371, "projectedAttempts": 0.08638403263403265, "onNet": 0.4139433551198257, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1496302673542909, "ppAdjusted": 0.019487926302112806, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3509363754745856, "baseline": 1.2388059701492538, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484783", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3060842133444528, "adjustedSOG": 1.3060842133444528, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3060842133444528, "adjustedSOG": 1.3060842133444528, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 220, "beforeSOG": 1.3060842133444528, "adjustedSOG": 1.3060842133444528 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 117.0, "goalExpected": 0.04637694744589134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04790203656776925, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04531797059551809, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14548654961372143 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05791629482162879, "modelSOG": 1.3060842133444528, "historyGames": 96, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 67, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 119.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.025210084033613446, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04014442685919123, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 29.982648697703326, "btb": { "id": "8484783", "name": "Artyom Levshunov", "score": 29.982648697703326, "components": { "Goal model": 13.881748071979434, "SOG model": 43.70179948586118, "Unit attack": 4.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 33.16195372750643, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.57509157509158, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.707554590408238, "unitPlayers": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 357 } }, { "id": "8484790", "name": "Adam Jiříček", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 15.493939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 13.925757575757576, "ppShare": 0.2616822429906542, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:02:47.563Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1454545454545455, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.067, "currentIXG": 0.09699999999999999, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 292.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.967126429458798, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.933677056479965, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 54.0, "C": 100.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 63.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.090909090909092, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 5.7272727272727275, "D": 6.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05797187134081868, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.08079508353867995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.076685463841194, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07761731652436164, "goalProbability": 0.07381887475014322, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3798441774218425, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3936945913593646, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.8753128060058755, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.523809523809524, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.925757575757576, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2616822429906542, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.421212121212121, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.41863494760691, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9648881522035752, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.011264200161285, "Position_Factor": 0.9933467679309167, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 756.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2889.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9580498866213152, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8945006936751393, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9810072979490835, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.856976288158155, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920575605128633, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.484688928917833, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.523809523809524, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Justin Barron", "Adam Jiříček" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -3.5166435441620223, "index": 96.48335645583798, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.829619914451882, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.711381954227932, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1583429135365577, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.010085678228733741, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.962648189525211, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.669492071549456, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -0.6330900683638845, "index": 99.36690993163612, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6330900683638845, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.68006507409568, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.675364981553571, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.329745600532746, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.077952805782843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 73.06167700287625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.5166435441620223, "zonePPFit": -0.6330900683638845, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3919957000020045, "attemptProjection": 1.3953934827167245, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9191.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.925757575757576, "projectedAttempts": 3.3636363636363633, "onNet": 0.4017995346375466, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9148767827946042, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013665331507621 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 756.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.41863494760691, "projectedAttempts": 0.33777022562069287, "onNet": 0.4360587002096436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9558683100265983, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0088527551942186 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2109817805431426, "ppAdjusted": 0.18271281081622182, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3936945913593646, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "STL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "savePct": 0.8947368421052632, "gaa": 2.1333333333333333, "gsax": 0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3375.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484790", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3936945913593646, "adjustedSOG": 1.3936945913593646, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3936945913593646, "adjustedSOG": 1.3936945913593646, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 193, "beforeSOG": 1.3936945913593646, "adjustedSOG": 1.3936945913593646 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.08438423013754351, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08294091642182451, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08092194924245345, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13274757079782262 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782708946875785, "modelSOG": 1.3936945913593646, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05797187134081868, "goalieFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.412010894158655, "btb": { "id": "8484790", "name": "Adam Jiříček", "score": 39.412010894158655, "components": { "Goal model": 26.99228791773779, "SOG model": 50.6426735218509, "Unit attack": 53.125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 23.39331619537275, "Goalie": 63.29588014981273, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.611018968809229, "unitPlayers": [ "Justin Barron", "Adam Jiříček" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 275 } }, { "id": "8484797", "name": "Konsta Helenius", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "currentTOI": 13.121666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.403333333333332, "ppShare": 0.26332691072575465, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T22:29:44.207Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.142, "currentIXG": 0.1142, "priorTOI": 11.90925925925926, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.2124074074074063, "ppTOIChange": 1.3666666666666667, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 364.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.370212765957447, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.591015931052496, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 50.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 66.0, "L": 64.0, "C": 128.0, "D": 106.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 5.5, "D": 8.833333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 34.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11701962967054091, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.16452223227703577, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1615164502755516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1517011028813981, "goalProbability": 0.14914746540840026, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2553637472997833, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.405937044410707, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.261619409529377, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.78048780487805, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.403333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26332691072575465, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.252967171717172, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3832476174720876, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.03533942423995, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Position_Factor": 0.9870699475962634, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 820.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3114.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.553777918580707, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.690740740740742, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0013290802764487, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1080288850742377, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1095015444111254, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.065684720212373, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.800214822771213, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.78048780487805, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zach Benson", "Tage Thompson", "Konsta Helenius" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": 3.6009628358079198, "index": 103.60096283580792, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.090909090909086, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.2989029051426115, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.793927624727658, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.041083277322642, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.454545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.296965239395917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.909090909090914, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.205920553386818, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.863386290752132, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 3 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.6009628358079198, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3252243517589553, "attemptProjection": 1.2946590550073052, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 6842.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.403333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5007072135785007, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0823000365837299, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0209675034666592 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 820.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3832476174720876, "projectedAttempts": 0.30363972090850705, "onNet": 0.518082869840594, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0397764203887216 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.10802882155334, "ppAdjusted": 0.2019128818297902, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3099417033831302, "baseline": 1.6666666666666667, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 9, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.090497737556561, "gsax": -1.9129999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3536.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.087 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482137", "goalieName": "Yaroslav Askarov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484797", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.452631688696545, "adjustedSOG": 1.4346296371537828, "reductionPct": 1.239271570546241, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.10802882155334, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0812509224648426, "afterRecentDefense": 1.10802882155334, "afterRecentZones": 1.1061092309230562, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1061092309230562, "adjusted": 1.0793777228698722, "playerFactor": 0.9758328496807893, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1080288850742377, "newChartFactor": 1.104194799621024, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8313487241798297, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1324694795459413, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.83333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2019128818297902, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2019128818297902, "afterRecentDefense": 0.20056056127532085, "afterRecentZones": 0.2019128818297902, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.20056056127532085, "adjusted": 0.20056056127532085, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9933024552855952, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.1666666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.87719298245614, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9505958291956306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.733333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4346296371537828, "adjustedSOG": 1.405937044410707, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 188, "beforeSOG": 1.405937044410707, "adjustedSOG": 1.405937044410707 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.16080669329241207, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16059451404934943, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1485433525190414, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0180680594621202 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861492968158697, "modelSOG": 1.405937044410707, "historyGames": 19, "seasonGames": { "2025": 9, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 27.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07407407407407407, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11701962967054091, "goalieFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 50.1854193917537, "btb": { "id": "8484797", "name": "Konsta Helenius", "score": 50.1854193917537, "components": { "Goal model": 56.29820051413882, "SOG model": 51.9280205655527, "Unit attack": 64.28571428571429, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 33.933161953727506, "Goalie": 90.0749063670412, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.753892139218213, "unitPlayers": [ "Zach Benson", "Tage Thompson", "Konsta Helenius" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 172 } }, { "id": "8484798", "name": "Zeev Buium", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 0.8461538461538461, "priorSOG": 0.9605263157894737, "currentTOI": 20.838461538461537, "currentFiveTOI": 18.45, "ppShare": 0.30664442591048097, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.414102564102564, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.85 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.819, "currentIXG": 0.063, "priorTOI": 19.576535087719297, "priorPPTOI": 2.2353070175438594, "deploymentChange": 1.2619264507422407, "ppTOIChange": -0.8212044534412954, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020284", "date": "20251115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06402247476956602, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.05948712413709568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.058912740085124975, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057752334235109885, "goalProbability": 0.05721096674134444, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05413674937654461, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9291600231200953, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.25140712945591, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.45, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30664442591048097, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.996678321678322, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5322035554103948, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.15384615384615385, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0238731072746992, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8915502500334875, "Position_Factor": 0.9819664902998236, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1103.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.534672405547585, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.6509369174923965, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.507894736842104, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5924277640523916, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9259259259259258, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.001730218855581, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9275279804218342, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1737489621858255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020284", "date": "20251115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zeev Buium", "Filip Hronek" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:26:10.584Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": 0.05767396185270002, "index": 100.0576739618527, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2824870454165307, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.10748505528819408, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.585119615840497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.320182639046806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.946481887554469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.998040136689227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -11.996085200156102, "index": 88.0039147998439, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 84.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.717152878037737, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.263041267726194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.5194968231986365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -26.659175028078806, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.188803786959838, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.861486838579054, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.05767396185270002, "zonePPFit": -11.996085200156102, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7959809095228082, "attemptProjection": 1.0893353871548794, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 14391.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.45, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.38100736201929675, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0676056064047685, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9818541608976376 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1103.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5322035554103948, "projectedAttempts": 0.4167371410907692, "onNet": 0.3838383838383838, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.871914403676388, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9802760111402085 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7204518705583408, "ppAdjusted": 0.06836012393434919, "other": 0.15384615384615385 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9426581483388439, "baseline": 0.9605263157894737, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 122.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8770491803278688, "gaa": 3.374578177727784, "gsax": -2.463, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3890.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.589 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.689 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3467.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.972 }, { "gameId": "2024021212", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.393 }, { "gameId": "2024020986", "date": "20250305", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1445.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.894 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484798", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9498054153190958, "adjustedSOG": 0.9481224725715258, "reductionPct": 0.17718816090394052, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7204518705583408, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7204518705583408, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7204518705583408, "afterRecentZones": 0.7176469659790576, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7176469659790576, "adjusted": 0.7176469659790576, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.001730218855581, "newChartFactor": 0.9929789165682175, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.313426932964208, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0360388627621797, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06836012393434919, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06836012393434919, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06836012393434919, "afterRecentZones": 0.06836012393434919, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06836012393434919, "adjusted": 0.06836012393434919, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.583333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9755223880597017, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1183879093198992, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.466666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9481224725715258, "adjustedSOG": 0.9291600231200953, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 313, "beforeSOG": 0.9291600231200953, "adjustedSOG": 0.9291600231200953 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 83.0, "goalExpected": 0.059819051014993026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06113753597674741, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05806503966047448, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12411087087786168 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780135357600146, "modelSOG": 0.9291600231200953, "historyGames": 89, "seasonGames": { "2025": 76, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06402247476956602, "goalieFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.88074329609951, "btb": { "id": "8484798", "name": "Zeev Buium", "score": 32.88074329609951, "components": { "Goal model": 15.681233933161954, "SOG model": 19.794344473007712, "Unit attack": 7.8125, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.311053984575835, "Goalie": 50.0, "Team H2H": 46.022353714661406, "Goalie H2H": 49.39070830159939 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7631500812954917, "unitPlayers": [ "Zeev Buium", "Filip Hronek" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 335 } }, { "id": "8484801", "name": "Macklin Celebrini", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 4.0, "priorSOG": 3.5, "currentTOI": 22.695, "currentFiveTOI": 16.798333333333332, "ppShare": 0.7592014971927635, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 40.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.056666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.941, "currentIXG": 0.4941, "priorTOI": 21.315853658536586, "priorPPTOI": 3.4813008130081298, "deploymentChange": 1.3791463414634144, "ppTOIChange": 0.5753658536585369, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.55 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 16.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13251568746151407, "goalHistoryGoals": 75.0, "goalHistoryShots": 563.0, "goalExpected": 0.4483054256072493, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4483054256072493, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.361290424022164, "goalProbability": 0.361290424022164, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.3830366366053726, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.215100704434963, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.269515201314707, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.798333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7592014971927635, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7709404163279707, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9812928082271114, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2434.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3206.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.441054520700538, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.451658103689864, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.421747967479675, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6927625565235682, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9098312031494364, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9339460136771935, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.768130241736557, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.248746238716148, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.55 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ivar Stenberg", "Macklin Celebrini", "Collin Graf" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 242, "fitPct": -2.2017995440935465, "index": 97.79820045590645, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.009722897423433, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.556149732620323, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.157997083130775, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.522119591638308, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.04229460379193, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.711716091395235, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": 10.172714440564476, "index": 110.17271444056448, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 36.195244055068834, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.614518147684606, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.94743429286608, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.359198998748435, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.458072590738425, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.425531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.2017995440935465, "zonePPFit": 10.172714440564476, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.7309013048450814, "attemptProjection": 3.762291472967284, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 23.0, "seconds": 10079.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.798333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 3.7999999999999994, "onNet": 0.5512843510081079, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 2434.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7709404163279707, "projectedAttempts": 2.045045747556664, "onNet": 0.5142251189737224, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.971434947580995, "ppAdjusted": 1.1751614413251874, "other": 0.6 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.7465963889061826, "baseline": 3.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484801", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.6479578333437095, "adjustedSOG": 3.6376738028014755, "reductionPct": 0.2819119905453471, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.971434947580995, "afterPlayerForm": 1.971434947580995, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9714349475809951, "afterRecentZones": 1.971434947580995, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.971434947580995, "adjusted": 1.971434947580995, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9339460136771935, "newChartFactor": 0.9331354327358039, "playerRecentAttempts": 25.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2910671831447778, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2768220310728813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.1751614413251874, "afterPlayerForm": 1.161125814079266, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1720194915588906, "afterRecentZones": 1.1751614413251874, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1720194915588906, "adjusted": 1.1580213904214631, "playerFactor": 0.9880564263322884, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 23.666666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9349551856594109, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.6376738028014755, "adjustedSOG": 3.6376738028014755, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 5, "beforeSOG": 3.6376738028014755, "adjustedSOG": 3.3830366366053726 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 75.0, "goalHistoryShots": 560.0, "goalExpected": 0.5975515917819157, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5624231799659268, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4498430026613035, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.9669599809514438 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857900786983817, "modelSOG": 3.3830366366053726, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 75.0, "historyShots": 563.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13321492007104796, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13251568746151407, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.60865498397632, "btb": { "id": "8484801", "name": "Macklin Celebrini", "score": 63.60865498397632, "components": { "Goal model": 97.94344473007712, "SOG model": 98.97172236503856, "Unit attack": 22.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 97.4293059125964, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.11029711029711, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.180398023684566, "unitPlayers": [ "Ivar Stenberg", "Macklin Celebrini", "Collin Graf" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 60 } }, { "id": "8484803", "name": "Trevor Connelly", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.167948717948718, "currentFiveTOI": 11.043589743589743, "ppShare": 0.5687789799072643, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8307692307692305, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.69 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.227, "currentIXG": 0.24823076923076923, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13818989305475549, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.2141578935141891, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21519950310119232, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19277907998779062, "goalProbability": 0.19361945129152147, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08403713037308524, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.5497362996679687, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.5226375667518, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.521739130434782, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.043589743589743, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5687789799072643, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.034294871794872, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8634011017318595, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9614401163173879, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0011203000023932, "Position_Factor": 1.00414987214829, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2208.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9863588161573316, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8365071833676367, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1018276018892694, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1030619793543028, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.908296943231441, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.75739089629282, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Connelly", "Tomas Hertl", "Braeden Bowman" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -5.449760554412109, "index": 94.55023944558789, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.344827586206897, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.350182371222758, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.137931034482758, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9037007080082304, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.137931034482758, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.768490090686143, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.586206896551722, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.99627096959152, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.344827586206897, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.6595946926277065, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.4482758620689653, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.338221538806664, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 3.394253396308983, "index": 103.39425339630898, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.182535462939811, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -14.23076527424152, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 66.66666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.443027097040158, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4326334507769758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.296705994846661, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.359225909689712, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.449760554412109, "zonePPFit": 3.394253396308983, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5202392602884722, "attemptProjection": 1.6904577606509843, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8614.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.043589743589743, "projectedAttempts": 3.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4804537459166457, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.027224103176553, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9438282068460077 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2208.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.8634011017318595, "projectedAttempts": 0.5446686878294298, "onNet": 0.5627169528098321, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9677888729737522, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878734186861757 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2871780341694603, "ppAdjusted": 0.31817047630026796, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6053485104697283, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484803", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6053485104697283, "adjustedSOG": 1.5497362996679687, "reductionPct": 3.4641830380798377, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2871780341694603, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2401381312515833, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2871780341694603, "afterRecentZones": 1.2871780341694603, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2871780341694603, "adjusted": 1.2401381312515833, "playerFactor": 0.9634550142488805, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8365071833676367, "newChartFactor": 0.8321592911275701, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7618289555142832, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0539918860508322, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.31817047630026796, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3099043357294939, "afterRecentDefense": 0.31817047630026796, "afterRecentZones": 0.31785614252494326, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.31785614252494326, "adjusted": 0.30959816841638527, "playerFactor": 0.9740197749744289, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1018276018892694, "newChartFactor": 1.0998099770487288, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8129602356406479, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1629480807867187, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.516666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5497362996679687, "adjustedSOG": 1.5497362996679687, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 152, "beforeSOG": 1.5497362996679687, "adjustedSOG": 1.5497362996679687 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 21.0, "goalExpected": 0.2697663170190676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27264494189151584, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23644209602249106, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.21948362032790658 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859166952680168, "modelSOG": 1.5497362996679687, "historyGames": 13, "seasonGames": { "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 22.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18181818181818182, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13818989305475549, "goalieFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 64.17954740872415, "btb": { "id": "8484803", "name": "Trevor Connelly", "score": 64.17954740872415, "components": { "Goal model": 68.89460154241645, "SOG model": 61.18251928020565, "Unit attack": 92.85714285714286, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 86.20689655172414, "Shot quality": 76.09254498714652, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.7005773854509263, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Connelly", "Tomas Hertl", "Braeden Bowman" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 55 } }, { "id": "8484806", "name": "Sam Dickinson", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.830000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 16.665, "ppShare": 0.006580915345498056, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.441, "currentIXG": 0.0441, "priorTOI": 16.75601851851852, "priorPPTOI": 0.29953703703703705, "deploymentChange": 2.073981481481482, "ppTOIChange": -0.26287037037037037, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.037727988619621, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.03252586383692325, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03252586383692325, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03200258661970369, "goalProbability": 0.03200258661970369, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8621149715892273, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8802880288028803, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006580915345498056, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.032687290191777185, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9871218437737829, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3343.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.732333165622284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.7820710973724885, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.18263888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05960646743766119, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9323507180650037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8075787486376058, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7286508337544215, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sam Dickinson", "Michael Kesselring" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": -6.414041712079808, "index": 93.58595828792019, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.0512820512820515, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.034188034188034, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.68376068376068, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.982905982905982, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410258, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.414041712079808, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.68, "attemptProjection": 0.8603832386307575, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 9999.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.665, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.377791344776575, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.032687290191777185, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.4222222222222222, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7701916193153788, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7701916193153788, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484806", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8621149715892273, "adjustedSOG": 0.8621149715892273, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7701916193153788, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7701916193153788, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7701916193153788, "afterRecentZones": 0.7701916193153788, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7701916193153788, "adjusted": 0.7701916193153788, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8075787486376058, "newChartFactor": 0.8029394591042135, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.73333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0780503582802545, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2337085598937971, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8621149715892273, "adjustedSOG": 0.8621149715892273, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 329, "beforeSOG": 0.8621149715892273, "adjustedSOG": 0.8621149715892273 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 78.0, "goalExpected": 0.026936530706088667, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.025353006276481165, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.026576977964381028, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15426602334608247 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057910379515317786, "modelSOG": 0.8621149715892273, "historyGames": 82, "seasonGames": { "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.037727988619621, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 26.992376033587473, "btb": { "id": "8484806", "name": "Sam Dickinson", "score": 26.992376033587473, "components": { "Goal model": 4.113110539845758, "SOG model": 15.681233933161954, "Unit attack": 23.4375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 10.796915167095115, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.415004748338085, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.116908637917232, "unitPlayers": [ "Sam Dickinson", "Michael Kesselring" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 377 } }, { "id": "8484829", "name": "Justin Hryckowian", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.0246913580246915, "currentTOI": 14.931818181818182, "currentFiveTOI": 12.254545454545456, "ppShare": 0.29152189020152885, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2712121212121212, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.367, "currentIXG": 0.12427272727272727, "priorTOI": 13.299588477366255, "priorPPTOI": 0.5967078189300412, "deploymentChange": 1.6322297044519267, "ppTOIChange": 0.67450430228208, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.516666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13999095287983324, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.13601150206670912, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13601150206670912, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12716740694772888, "goalProbability": 0.12716740694772888, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.9715735143503164, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.341246290801187, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.290822407628129, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.254545454545456, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29152189020152885, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.260169625371154, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0126724991491074, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 839.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.8433468485071876, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.448275862068965, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.164609053497943, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12353367399120573, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894704201046217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8934786981500973, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.920000923494724, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8993697394435787, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.329744279946164, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Colin Blackwell", "Justin Hryckowian", "Matthew Seminoff" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": -3.5507100616634233, "index": 96.44928993833658, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.483644859813083, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.85747663551402, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.31308411214953, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.738317757009344, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.607476635514018, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": -2.666635883509201, "index": 97.3333641164908, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.192977154162222, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.12137285413754739, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 89.0909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.9783007442485996, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.093235725193537, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.952140172754426, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.24299199707045, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.5507100616634233, "zonePPFit": -2.666635883509201, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0083233895581694, "attemptProjection": 0.9305283781691936, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8088.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.254545454545456, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.5218240133872543, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 839.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.260169625371154, "projectedAttempts": 0.09011940109924821, "onNet": 0.5187920019912056, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9068242225721697, "ppAdjusted": 0.06260166129151187, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9694258838636816, "baseline": 1.0246913580246915, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484829", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9915320735280855, "adjustedSOG": 0.9715735143503164, "reductionPct": 2.0129010155720217, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9068242225721697, "afterPlayerForm": 0.889662196748023, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8923509652460571, "afterRecentZones": 0.9068242225721697, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8923509652460571, "adjusted": 0.8754628518404447, "playerFactor": 0.9810745838091232, "defenseFactor": 0.9673428388564926, "oldChartFactor": 0.8934786981500973, "newChartFactor": 0.8868971213164287, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8725978071772464, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8478682170542635, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06260166129151187, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06260166129151187, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06069916844517153, "afterRecentZones": 0.06260124698224895, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.060698766726954796, "adjusted": 0.060698766726954796, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 0.920000923494724, "newChartFactor": 0.9199915178984277, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.966666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.7552301255230125, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9715735143503164, "adjustedSOG": 0.9715735143503164, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 307, "beforeSOG": 0.9715735143503164, "adjustedSOG": 0.9715735143503164 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.13771427300186553, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13771427300186553, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12865237627833073, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858199623086813, "modelSOG": 0.9715735143503164, "historyGames": 97, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 99.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15151515151515152, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13999095287983324, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.191996831811565, "btb": { "id": "8484829", "name": "Justin Hryckowian", "score": 45.191996831811565, "components": { "Goal model": 46.7866323907455, "SOG model": 21.336760925449873, "Unit attack": 23.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 62.06896551724138, "Shot quality": 38.04627249357326, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.169040835707506, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1819173016368896, "unitPlayers": [ "Colin Blackwell", "Justin Hryckowian", "Matthew Seminoff" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 216 } }, { "id": "8484911", "name": "Collin Graf", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.4691358024691359, "currentTOI": 15.198611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 12.318055555555555, "ppShare": 0.01990303648890023, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.535, "currentIXG": 0.21125000000000002, "priorTOI": 16.442798353909463, "priorPPTOI": 0.47386831275720165, "deploymentChange": -1.2441872427983522, "ppTOIChange": -0.3655349794238683, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14802705981535172, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 176.0, "goalExpected": 0.20821579613650837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20821579613650837, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1879682155185711, "goalProbability": 0.1879682155185711, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4066063083076554, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.0886232946217165, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.318055555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01990303648890023, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09885803041901536, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0330444604574947, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 78.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.805533596837945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.6895353886235345, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.01440329218107, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09429757479576419, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1097651536248028, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0082801072956433, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1189541281697821, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.081081081081081, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ivar Stenberg", "Macklin Celebrini", "Collin Graf" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": 0.2760035765214468, "index": 100.27600357652145, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.7021276595744685, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.794326241134755, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.99290780141844, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.120567375886525, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1347517730496455, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.2760035765214468, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5653593268788943, "attemptProjection": 1.1644806308544424, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8869.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.318055555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.5486233554862335, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 78.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09885803041901536, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1982533122000016, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3649199788666684, "baseline": 1.4691358024691359, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484911", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4066063083076554, "adjustedSOG": 1.4066063083076554, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1982533122000016, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1982533122000016, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1982533122000016, "afterRecentZones": 1.1982533122000016, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1982533122000016, "adjusted": 1.1982533122000016, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0082801072956433, "newChartFactor": 1.0082801072956433, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3414270921804283, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4948160363780072, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4066063083076554, "adjustedSOG": 1.4066063083076554, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 186, "beforeSOG": 1.4066063083076554, "adjustedSOG": 1.4066063083076554 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.1805096376474218, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16989797335727327, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16515536528006997, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8906262556464345 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855468509037074, "modelSOG": 1.4066063083076554, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 33, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 176.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1590909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14802705981535172, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.82148959734485, "btb": { "id": "8484911", "name": "Collin Graf", "score": 46.82148959734485, "components": { "Goal model": 67.3521850899743, "SOG model": 52.44215938303342, "Unit attack": 22.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 67.60925449871465, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.70742932281394, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.180398023684566, "unitPlayers": [ "Ivar Stenberg", "Macklin Celebrini", "Collin Graf" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 201 } }, { "id": "8484938", "name": "Arttu Hyry", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.25, "currentTOI": 14.484848484848486, "currentFiveTOI": 11.704545454545455, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 20, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.429, "currentIXG": 0.2208181818181818, "priorTOI": 11.775833333333335, "priorPPTOI": 0.04666666666666667, "deploymentChange": 2.7090151515151515, "ppTOIChange": -0.04666666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12743479362466203, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 48.0, "goalExpected": 0.18548849540371448, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18548849540371448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16930160762441177, "goalProbability": 0.16930160762441177, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.4555561328881652, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.592233009708738, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.704545454545455, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5454545454545454, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 0.988456448075644, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.962025316455696, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.48, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009661185262484641, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894704201046217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8958380291440247, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.6325421790105805, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021130", "date": "20260324", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jamie Benn", "Arttu Hyry", "Dylan Hryckowian" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -3.472065695199177, "index": 96.52793430480082, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.472065695199177, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4727272727272727, "attemptProjection": 1.7518575336907847, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7725.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.704545454545455, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.4519641311893193, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0668378577544833, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.5454545454545454 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6122924032090287, "baseline": 1.25, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 20, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484938", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4673754419254172, "adjustedSOG": 1.4555561328881652, "reductionPct": 0.8054727303970277, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0668378577544833, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0668378577544833, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0471390093590633, "afterRecentZones": 1.0668378577544833, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0471390093590633, "adjusted": 1.0471390093590633, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9673428388564926, "oldChartFactor": 0.8958380291440247, "newChartFactor": 0.8911496688323841, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0318056599048333, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8478682170542635, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4555561328881652, "adjustedSOG": 1.4555561328881652, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 175, "beforeSOG": 1.4555561328881652, "adjustedSOG": 1.4555561328881652 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.18364274147284615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18364274147284615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1677669269155398, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286034945644998, "modelSOG": 1.4555561328881652, "historyGames": 36, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 20, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 48.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12743479362466203, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 49.355508102294735, "btb": { "id": "8484938", "name": "Arttu Hyry", "score": 49.355508102294735, "components": { "Goal model": 61.95372750642674, "SOG model": 55.26992287917738, "Unit attack": 48.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 70.4370179948586, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.51074851074851, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.43188422230703, "unitPlayers": [ "Jamie Benn", "Arttu Hyry", "Dylan Hryckowian" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 181 } }, { "id": "8484984", "name": "Ivan Demidov", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.548780487804878, "currentTOI": 15.616666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.608333333333333, "ppShare": 0.5714285714285714, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:44.452Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.445, "currentIXG": 0.2225, "priorTOI": 15.497560975609755, "priorPPTOI": 2.8579268292682927, "deploymentChange": 0.11910569105691238, "ppTOIChange": -1.091260162601626, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 314.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.796259842519685, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.20179085385353, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 88.0, "R": 42.0, "L": 65.0, "C": 119.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.818181818181818, "L": 5.909090909090909, "R": 3.8181818181818183, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.545454545454547, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.8181818181818183, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14346230975932375, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.32429593516070254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33993289156910844, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2769637611297211, "goalProbability": 0.28818190984509506, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.1218148715373966, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.260495705839047, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5714285714285714, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.289393939393939, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.451082251082251, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0222778779176473, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9911964967319132, "Position_Factor": 0.956490660479933, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 212.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 371.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.085366491690064, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.9368465969703434, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.654674796747967, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6015401069518718, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8356249405937382, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2406797341978446, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020648", "date": "20260103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020457", "date": "20251207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -5.479168646875394, "index": 94.5208313531246, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.885496183206107, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.704386645341984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 39.77099236641221, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.929364331067632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.244274809160306, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.4225043616985715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.328244274809162, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.0720923610835627, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.63358778625954, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.358579417969764, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.137404580152672, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.879837825328977, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": 8.022657806594822, "index": 108.02265780659482, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.839331006411939, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705888, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.195461353453453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.382334906700052, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.752280901321356, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 81.96078431372548, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.761371525590377, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": -36.62152213979931, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.479168646875394, "zonePPFit": 8.022657806594822, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2977579024748835, "attemptProjection": 3.347912910691246, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1393.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.608333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4554455445544554, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9938545662551949, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.061377761266507 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 212.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.451082251082251, "projectedAttempts": 1.3874050477824063, "onNet": 0.5088152327221439, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.931223836439547, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9839648077195969 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6005363389801479, "ppAdjusted": 0.7222990676029168, "other": 1.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.8228354065830645, "baseline": 1.548780487804878, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476412", "goalieName": "Jordan Binnington", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8484984", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.31321343907179, "adjustedSOG": 2.3066282712643336, "reductionPct": 0.28467618665135586, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6005363389801479, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6005363389801479, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6005363389801479, "afterRecentZones": 0.6005363389801479, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6005363389801479, "adjusted": 0.6005363389801479, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8356249405937382, "newChartFactor": 0.8151277727932331, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 23.216666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0956331264567947, "defenseRecentMinutes": 254.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7222990676029168, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7222990676029168, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7222990676029168, "afterRecentZones": 0.7113237879238223, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7113237879238223, "adjusted": 0.7113237879238223, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2406797341978446, "newChartFactor": 1.2065420414648422, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3835517947016205, "defenseRecentMinutes": 14.7, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3066282712643336, "adjustedSOG": 2.260495705839047, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.260495705839047, "adjustedSOG": 2.260495705839047 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.32309598986572907, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32309598986572907, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2760956364498963, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857105103200403, "modelSOG": 2.260495705839047, "historyGames": 86, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 82, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 136.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15441176470588236, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14346230975932375, "goalieFactor": 1.048218169619231, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484994", "name": "Igor Chernyshov", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.6428571428571428, "currentTOI": 13.572727272727274, "currentFiveTOI": 11.780303030303031, "ppShare": 0.3114517061885483, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 28, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.6318181818181818, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.254, "currentIXG": 0.114, "priorTOI": 15.057738095238095, "priorPPTOI": 1.101190476190476, "deploymentChange": -1.4850108225108212, "ppTOIChange": 0.5306277056277058, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.150994177070327, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.20162617005768405, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20162617005768405, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18259956040684053, "goalProbability": 0.18259956040684053, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3353241427566753, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.093247588424437, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.780303030303031, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3114517061885483, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5469751191790666, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0181477848907963, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1077.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3458.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.2318777859523085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.72972972972973, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.754166666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21913174714883166, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0522143109629853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9781712451326383, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0292457827010444, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.812190883571715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": -0.7276251622453884, "index": 99.27237483775461, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.290322580645164, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.03225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.7741935483871, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.516129032258066, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.74193548387097, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6451612903225806, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.7276251622453884, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1201548736101352, "attemptProjection": 1.1953380939759124, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7775.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.780303030303031, "projectedAttempts": 2.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.4832484241429928, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1077.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5469751191790666, "projectedAttempts": 0.1723649157859684, "onNet": 0.5399012751953929, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.014873588865778, "ppAdjusted": 0.05196380401815477, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1577464837930238, "baseline": 1.6428571428571428, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 28, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484994", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3517907474186714, "adjustedSOG": 1.3353241427566753, "reductionPct": 1.21813266538775, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.014873588865778, "afterPlayerForm": 1.014873588865778, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9878073931095722, "afterRecentZones": 1.0146278211226516, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9875681798752227, "adjusted": 0.9875681798752227, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9733304757822546, "oldChartFactor": 0.9781712451326383, "newChartFactor": 0.9777041012427181, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0493350019630938, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755351070214042, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05196380401815477, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05196380401815477, "afterRecentDefense": 0.051824871905383436, "afterRecentZones": 0.05196380401815477, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.051824871905383436, "adjusted": 0.051824871905383436, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4514824797843666, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3353241427566753, "adjustedSOG": 1.3353241427566753, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.3353241427566753, "adjustedSOG": 1.3353241427566753 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 57.0, "goalExpected": 0.1860630545434317, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1751249201737254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16977875589002478, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9130918091974222 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857079977111668, "modelSOG": 1.3353241427566753, "historyGames": 39, "seasonGames": { "2025": 28, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 58.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1896551724137931, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.150994177070327, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8485366", "name": "Matthew Schaefer", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.8181818181818183, "priorSOG": 2.6951219512195124, "currentTOI": 26.213636363636365, "currentFiveTOI": 20.783333333333335, "ppShare": 0.8017321373337457, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 42.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9272727272727277, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.836, "currentIXG": 0.2578181818181818, "priorTOI": 24.682723577235773, "priorPPTOI": 3.1260162601626016, "deploymentChange": 1.5309127864005916, "ppTOIChange": 0.8012564671101261, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08473903072829872, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 263.0, "goalExpected": 0.2705312731776197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2705312731776197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23702596099952372, "goalProbability": 0.23702596099952372, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 3.192522629212413, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.448130057592769, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.555555555555555, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.783333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8017321373337457, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.003194331186908, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9982981460355018, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2592.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.499100816848309, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.830949284785437, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.76138211382114, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.682015715628714, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0287226001511716, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.411764705882353, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1406437779488663, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8142159811979903, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.357228482378327, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 49, "priorAttempts": 195, "fitPct": 4.688125931628875, "index": 104.68812593162887, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.84981684981685, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 110 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.859759288330716, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.22501308215594, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.602825745682889, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.052328623757194, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.41025641025641024, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": -6.192800626733657, "index": 93.80719937326634, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.29976580796254, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9135788072109818, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.227166276346605, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.820904490934481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.4818754615265277, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.278688524590164, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.973109199988755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.882903981264638, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.06199582698406, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -18.598592306073343, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.688125931628875, "zonePPFit": -6.192800626733657, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.2605207659646265, "attemptProjection": 3.82224190931819, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 70.0, "sog": 36.0, "seconds": 13717.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.783333333333335, "projectedAttempts": 6.363636363636364, "onNet": 0.46630466261222125, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2592.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.003194331186908, "projectedAttempts": 1.4826645671062622, "onNet": 0.38047138047138046, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 3.4632693005024766, "ppAdjusted": 0.39629385532075, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.0413813376414085, "baseline": 2.6951219512195124, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8485366", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.50287758307265, "adjustedSOG": 3.50287758307265, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.50287758307265, "adjustedSOG": 3.4328200314111967, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 7, "beforeSOG": 3.4328200314111967, "adjustedSOG": 3.192522629212413 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 262.0, "goalExpected": 0.2355207890103614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2355207890103614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20984076379048736, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05760268154372432, "modelSOG": 3.192522629212413, "historyGames": 93, "seasonGames": { "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 263.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09505703422053231, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08473903072829872, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.37446754034656, "btb": { "id": "8485366", "name": "Matthew Schaefer", "score": 65.37446754034656, "components": { "Goal model": 82.77634961439588, "SOG model": 98.45758354755785, "Unit attack": 54.6875, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 79.3103448275862, "Shot quality": 78.1491002570694, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.21082621082621, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.637817462676188, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 50 } }, { "id": "8485388", "name": "Victor Eklund", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 13.84848484848485, "currentFiveTOI": 12.51969696969697, "ppShare": 0.22177544076708938, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0863636363636362, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.704, "currentIXG": 0.24581818181818182, "priorTOI": 15.5, "priorPPTOI": 2.4833333333333334, "deploymentChange": -1.6515151515151505, "ppTOIChange": -1.3969696969696972, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 322.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.707471404234607, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.306134603930914, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 118.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 61.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 5.181818181818182, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 7.818181818181818 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13555112094307417, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.22930431759869663, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22930431759869663, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2049134621407627, "goalProbability": 0.2049134621407627, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.6916445692470141, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.663802493041269, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.0418410041841, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.51969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22177544076708938, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.993181818181818, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1073650985574894, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.041166045108436, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.992892932238579, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 717.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3233.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.795918367346939, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.25, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5417989605690265, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005615891580804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.25250501002004, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.39240506329114, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:06:11.133Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 9.554224071206562, "index": 109.55422407120656, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.2143855710367433, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.057389770408804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.10553235267438765, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.127994450354194, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 47.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.349532888898537, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.655779035352282, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 4 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.554224071206562, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5166240193459495, "attemptProjection": 1.570602406664303, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8263.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.51969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 2.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.46974697469746973, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0699443969738227, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9962066736761065 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 717.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1073650985574894, "projectedAttempts": 0.3706661417765655, "onNet": 0.5084887426213237, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9958847736625515 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.385072490044419, "ppAdjusted": 0.15854072296070723, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.543613213005126, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.8958333333333334, "gaa": 3.2650099764193725, "gsax": -1.1350000000000002, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020867", "date": "20260131", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.768 }, { "gameId": "2025020689", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.167 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3526.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.93 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8485388", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7261679278030757, "adjustedSOG": 1.7261679278030757, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7261679278030757, "adjustedSOG": 1.6916445692470141, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 130, "beforeSOG": 1.6916445692470141, "adjustedSOG": 1.6916445692470141 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.20964381464131898, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20964381464131898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18912698436471043, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285948115033968, "modelSOG": 1.6916445692470141, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17647058823529413, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13555112094307417, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 56.571838025166635, "btb": { "id": "8485388", "name": "Victor Eklund", "score": 56.571838025166635, "components": { "Goal model": 73.52185089974293, "SOG model": 66.83804627249357, "Unit attack": 79.76190476190476, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 5.172413793103448, "Shot quality": 75.32133676092545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1627152465214055, "unitPlayers": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 110 } }, { "id": "8485391", "name": "Anton Frondell", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 3, "currentTOI": 17.04090909090909, "currentFiveTOI": 13.048484848484849, "ppShare": 0.37435897435897436, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7696969696969695, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.084, "currentIXG": 0.18945454545454546, "priorTOI": 17.693055555555556, "priorPPTOI": 3.2291666666666665, "deploymentChange": -0.6521464646464672, "ppTOIChange": -1.459469696969697, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10879291945735076, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 55.0, "goalExpected": 0.2535182029855227, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2535182029855227, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22393438191464882, "goalProbability": 0.22393438191464882, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.330282193455682, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.852299117510451, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.32876712328767, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.048484848484849, "Current_PP_Share": 0.37435897435897436, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.491969696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6816091686091688, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.021487916061888, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1493698333933764, "Position_Factor": 1.0210240499559582, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1168.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3120.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.251644736842104, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.511111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7461843856979838, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1141562853907137, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0091241950541034, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.124322064659374, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9815950920245395, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:09:54.958Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 0.30413983513678033, "index": 100.30413983513678, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.212121212121213, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5674175167298046, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.363636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7551841563860933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.8147875301275604, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.54545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7877406397262803, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.96969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.2678313557017304, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.700867180477275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 10.954647993418092, "index": 110.95464799341809, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5072330394686304, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 31.71111253968442, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0843929774271714, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.649143376125522, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 79.66386554621849, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.883631451772061, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 39.98283003182752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.30413983513678033, "zonePPFit": 10.954647993418092, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9192309960466623, "attemptProjection": 1.8483763154722772, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8612.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.048484848484849, "projectedAttempts": 2.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.49391278610891876, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0232269181119005, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9921741306725602 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1168.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6816091686091688, "projectedAttempts": 0.691072261072261, "onNet": 0.5176587683811725, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.1076217411720068, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.984078543795564 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3992455621758788, "ppAdjusted": 0.39364900267449987, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8838036557594697, "baseline": 3, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8485391", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Likely" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.330282193455682, "adjustedSOG": 2.330282193455682, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.330282193455682, "adjustedSOG": 2.330282193455682, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 46, "beforeSOG": 2.330282193455682, "adjustedSOG": 2.330282193455682 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 53.0, "goalExpected": 0.23356271329400097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24124333853861327, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20829205642968993, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6057519470525158 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862902515889366, "modelSOG": 2.330282193455682, "historyGames": 23, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 55.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07272727272727272, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10879291945735076, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 54.608581221691765, "btb": { "id": "8485391", "name": "Anton Frondell", "score": 54.608581221691765, "components": { "Goal model": 80.20565552699229, "SOG model": 88.4318766066838, "Unit attack": 4.761904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 61.696658097686374, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.897422060622221, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 127 } }, { "id": "8485395", "name": "James Hagens", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 12.929166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.329166666666666, "ppShare": 0.3130245570407212, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3986111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.008, "currentIXG": 0.25066666666666665, "priorTOI": 14.55, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -1.6208333333333336, "ppTOIChange": 1.3986111111111112, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.384615384615383, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13380650502109312, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.18098606731678712, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18098606731678712, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1655530152997056, "goalProbability": 0.1655530152997056, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3525954309041752, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.709452004413388, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.149950347567031, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.329166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3130245570407212, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.677617521367521, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4642091526319845, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8961421987517094, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Position_Factor": 1.0477772884824241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1007.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3217.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.123711340206185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.55, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.052885837782863, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8298445436318406, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8737315675513481, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8794117376512637, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.074162679425838, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.581644815256258, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Casey Mittelstadt", "Elias Lindholm", "James Hagens" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:10:20.777Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -5.6718485456053145, "index": 94.32815145439469, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.275862068965516, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.654624701098868, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.48275862068966, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.489322291274775, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.620689655172413, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.77124000724973, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.20689655172414, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.868062249904511, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.206896551724137, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.341878997817915, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.206896551724137, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.216147866507768, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 4 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.6718485456053145, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7552842318290278, "attemptProjection": 1.5724223975473417, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 8157.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.329166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.5535235876528829, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8587972666491265, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9957384675713573 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1007.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4642091526319845, "projectedAttempts": 0.43620928082382854, "onNet": 0.49924349275548147, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8902088086513993, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896118340562784 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4912062991666466, "ppAdjusted": 0.17264701552153833, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6638533146881849, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9367088607594937, "gaa": 1.6677476141943852, "gsax": 1.415, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.641 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.307 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 15.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.467 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8485395", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3983119888129107, "adjustedSOG": 1.3801994192899747, "reductionPct": 1.2953167581944758, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4912062991666466, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4912062991666466, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4623812785745387, "afterRecentZones": 1.4873370244349169, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4623812785745387, "adjusted": 1.4623812785745387, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9491264822134388, "oldChartFactor": 0.8298445436318406, "newChartFactor": 0.8258355363600196, "playerRecentAttempts": 21.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4925892040256175, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7647995270342901, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.4166666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.17264701552153833, "afterPlayerForm": 0.17128442024208582, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17264701552153833, "afterRecentZones": 0.17264701552153833, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17264701552153833, "adjusted": 0.17128442024208582, "playerFactor": 0.9921076233183856, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.919634703196347, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.6023893805309735, "defenseRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3801994192899747, "adjustedSOG": 1.3525954309041752, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 204, "beforeSOG": 1.3525954309041752, "adjustedSOG": 1.3525954309041752 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.22920231871216099, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22045826931196974, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2048323600631111, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6983472544125652 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859619632657732, "modelSOG": 1.3525954309041752, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 26.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15384615384615385, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13380650502109312, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 57.83174195127923, "btb": { "id": "8485395", "name": "James Hagens", "score": 57.83174195127923, "components": { "Goal model": 60.9254498714653, "SOG model": 47.81491002570694, "Unit attack": 80.95238095238095, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.60668380462725, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2313879215214305, "unitPlayers": [ "Casey Mittelstadt", "Elias Lindholm", "James Hagens" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 97 } }, { "id": "8485400", "name": "Roger McQueen", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.43888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 11.230555555555556, "ppShare": 0.19119286510590858, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9527777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.228, "currentIXG": 0.20466666666666666, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.23076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11908428292783081, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.20552064279261487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20552064279261487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1857767134487744, "goalProbability": 0.1857767134487744, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.7258418805541909, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.342567400445214, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.495626822157435, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.230555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19119286510590858, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.899319539620543, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9834267095119533, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 343.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1794.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0470973460042345, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.570977917981073, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.688311688311689, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nikita Nesterenko", "Roger McQueen", "Alex Killorn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 12.716291775708939, "index": 112.71629177570894, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 14.640263615700832, "index": 114.64026361570083, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.790079882741523, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 49.54161614284797, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.640263615700832, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.615100018158174, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.397215494725074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.607432922706408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.716291775708939, "zonePPFit": 14.640263615700832, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.49757934373319, "attemptProjection": 1.9541044173751916, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4043.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.230555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 3.333333333333334, "onNet": 0.45018604126733575, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 343.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.899319539620543, "projectedAttempts": 0.15731537136219412, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.420541670946763, "ppAdjusted": 0.13863354294076075, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7258418805541909, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8485400", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7258418805541909, "adjustedSOG": 1.7258418805541909, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7258418805541909, "adjustedSOG": 1.7258418805541909, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 119, "beforeSOG": 1.7258418805541909, "adjustedSOG": 1.7258418805541909 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.2468369537844872, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23834566867148832, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21873193405124708, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.666221525241889 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861102556205728, "modelSOG": 1.7258418805541909, "historyGames": 6, "seasonGames": { "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11908428292783081, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 49.30713673644265, "btb": { "id": "8485400", "name": "Roger McQueen", "score": 49.30713673644265, "components": { "Goal model": 66.32390745501286, "SOG model": 69.66580976863753, "Unit attack": 34.523809523809526, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 66.0668380462725, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.264949898733506, "unitPlayers": [ "Nikita Nesterenko", "Roger McQueen", "Alex Killorn" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 183 } }, { "id": "8485402", "name": "Michael Misa", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.288888888888889, "currentTOI": 13.630555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 11.572222222222223, "ppShare": 0.2791528451135494, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 45, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5194444444444446, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.965, "currentIXG": 0.16375, "priorTOI": 12.81074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 1.1596296296296296, "deploymentChange": 0.8198148148148139, "ppTOIChange": 0.35981481481481503, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.1 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1403437548390371, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 70.0, "goalExpected": 0.1523789589760822, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1523789589760822, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14133717890639047, "goalProbability": 0.14133717890639047, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.0857551812750663, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8886221795487277, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.290676416819013, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.572222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2791528451135494, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3865472471590103, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9812928082271114, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1094.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.711880322507528, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.198339188757586, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.438148148148148, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23076086497349882, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9098312031494364, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.003671495671702, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131716444737791, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.1019797749608315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mason Marchment", "Michael Misa", "Will Smith" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 0.12238318905673395, "index": 100.12238318905673, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.52941176470588, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.05882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7647058823529416, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": 12.714676912023592, "index": 112.71467691202359, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 93.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.12238318905673395, "zonePPFit": 12.714676912023592, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9389967346234377, "attemptProjection": 0.9631776885790508, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8332.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.572222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 1.5833333333333335, "onNet": 0.500188737517587, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1094.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3865472471590103, "projectedAttempts": 0.07604463878385796, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7181945355664803, "ppAdjusted": 0.06622600936809735, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9510872116012443, "baseline": 1.288888888888889, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 45, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8485402", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0862078825163022, "adjustedSOG": 1.0857551812750663, "reductionPct": 0.04167721929867474, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7181945355664803, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7181945355664803, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7181945355664803, "afterRecentZones": 0.717617097505591, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.717617097505591, "adjusted": 0.717617097505591, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.003671495671702, "newChartFactor": 1.0019790555534605, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5699032784826026, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2768220310728813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06622600936809735, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06622600936809735, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06604894536026008, "afterRecentZones": 0.06622600936809735, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06604894536026008, "adjusted": 0.06604894536026008, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.166666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.989090909090909, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0857551812750663, "adjustedSOG": 1.0857551812750663, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 280, "beforeSOG": 1.0857551812750663, "adjustedSOG": 1.0857551812750663 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.13306935659851896, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1252465757324486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1245956250665469, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6874952156524727 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285843832263631, "modelSOG": 1.0857551812750663, "historyGames": 57, "seasonGames": { "2025": 45, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 70.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1403437548390371, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 47.063991659107344, "btb": { "id": "8485402", "name": "Michael Misa", "score": 47.063991659107344, "components": { "Goal model": 51.9280205655527, "SOG model": 28.27763496143959, "Unit attack": 32.142857142857146, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 51.41388174807198, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.058879392212724, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.255509895648057, "unitPlayers": [ "Mason Marchment", "Michael Misa", "Will Smith" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 200 } }, { "id": "8485406", "name": "Porter Martone", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 1.0769230769230769, "priorSOG": 3.5555555555555554, "currentTOI": 13.908974358974358, "currentFiveTOI": 11.084615384615384, "ppShare": 0.4714906673485042, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.364102564102564, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.819, "currentIXG": 0.13992307692307693, "priorTOI": 17.04074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 2.1037037037037036, "deploymentChange": -3.131766381766383, "ppTOIChange": 0.2603988603988605, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.44444444444444, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 47.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.555555555555555, "L": 5.222222222222222, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.666666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13602221115306057, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 46.0, "goalExpected": 0.29083646108655625, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2876092312031394, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2523620640834543, "goalProbability": 0.24994536707377774, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24166970096765605, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 2.138154192768482, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.498265093684941, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.61822125813449, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.084615384615384, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4714906673485042, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.878347578347578, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3000953552730588, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0069731085562685, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9705017357994928, "Position_Factor": 1.0029891850709194, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1844.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3911.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.751850409037788, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.845070422535212, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.261111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4940534531552975, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.016855500362784, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9901579842350016, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1859193485336503, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.006847592497488, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4393549261417538, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.399538106235564, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:01:32.307Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -0.32806719216661406, "index": 99.67193280783339, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.596247619817476, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.153846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.095660848827933, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.23076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.086311443608352, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.5373189023530074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.769230769230766, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.6108394415415574, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.752270750151794, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 6.197311617788344, "index": 106.19731161778834, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.872348464414074, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.87006153005612, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.396509913398944, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 46.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.320182558814139, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.173345973903437, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -39.965096749247266, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.32806719216661406, "zonePPFit": 6.197311617788344, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1532306871696845, "attemptProjection": 1.2604036147404103, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 8646.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.084615384615384, "projectedAttempts": 1.6923076923076923, "onNet": 0.42722754703585375, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0036120406175784, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0056035120942322 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1844.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.3000953552730588, "projectedAttempts": 0.8980849543365522, "onNet": 0.5818526824219424, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0444608265281752, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9724056528535425 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5971884177797249, "ppAdjusted": 0.6096287331753225, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2068171509550474, "baseline": 3.5555555555555554, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 9, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8485406", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1463125127952507, "adjustedSOG": 2.138154192768482, "reductionPct": 0.3801086737431181, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5971884177797249, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5935704086236281, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5971884177797249, "afterRecentZones": 0.5962383278170192, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5962383278170192, "adjusted": 0.59262607469048, "playerFactor": 0.9939415952346361, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9901579842350016, "newChartFactor": 0.9861091724779831, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9576606762107828, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1698315100215602, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.53333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6096287331753225, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6096287331753225, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6008510101151335, "afterRecentZones": 0.6093678428578624, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6005938762199532, "adjusted": 0.6005938762199532, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9856015266628441, "oldChartFactor": 1.1859193485336503, "newChartFactor": 1.18502063949487, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.416666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.329009009009009, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9008256812796208, "defenseRecentMinutes": 28.133333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.138154192768482, "adjustedSOG": 2.138154192768482, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 70, "beforeSOG": 2.138154192768482, "adjustedSOG": 2.138154192768482 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.13218346710747958, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12973887094663428, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12381976992016402, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21445270099260255 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859242828346845, "modelSOG": 2.138154192768482, "historyGames": 22, "seasonGames": { "2025": 9, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 46.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15217391304347827, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13602221115306057, "goalieFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 57.89799681173414, "btb": { "id": "8485406", "name": "Porter Martone", "score": 57.89799681173414, "components": { "Goal model": 85.8611825192802, "SOG model": 82.26221079691517, "Unit attack": 26.19047619047619, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 41.90231362467866, "Goalie": 23.03370786516854, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1892289331978496, "unitPlayers": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 96 } }, { "id": "8485512", "name": "Tim Washe", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 0.8461538461538461, "currentTOI": 15.131818181818181, "currentFiveTOI": 11.26969696969697, "ppShare": 0.00370495116200741, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 39, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.905, "currentIXG": 0.1731818181818182, "priorTOI": 12.052136752136752, "priorPPTOI": 0.02094017094017094, "deploymentChange": 3.079681429681429, "ppTOIChange": -0.004273504273504272, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.23076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12150419381174297, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.13468536839738024, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13468536839738024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12600914642400146, "goalProbability": 0.12600914642400146, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.1084832891123084, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.356009680021511, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.26969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00370495116200741, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01742708846110665, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9834267095119533, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2969.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.63240971090332, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.963247863247863, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003999007911626105, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0470973460042345, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.156358238495794, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021280", "date": "20260412", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021134", "date": "20260324", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020855", "date": "20260129", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "A.J. Greer", "Tim Washe", "Sam Colangelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 11.52777247980353, "index": 111.52777247980353, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.543859649122805, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.0019136307982706, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.75438596491228, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.875894934841469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.473684210526315, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.23696301046553, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.473684210526315, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.06459643761157, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.947368421052632, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.439045249685051, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.807017543859649, "opponentDeltaPct": 32.50473750689008, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.52777247980353, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2136363636363636, "attemptProjection": 1.3531028051995362, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7438.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.26969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4793475401210208, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 11.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01742708846110665, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5204841713221602, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.010642311690677, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.28336958441795, "baseline": 0.8461538461538461, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 39, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8485512", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1084832891123084, "adjustedSOG": 1.1084832891123084, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1084832891123084, "adjustedSOG": 1.1084832891123084, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 270, "beforeSOG": 1.1084832891123084, "adjustedSOG": 1.1084832891123084 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.12187524637346668, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1176826915338958, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11474119914010684, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3719287279775746 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861116490326216, "modelSOG": 1.1084832891123084, "historyGames": 52, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 39, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 47.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10638297872340426, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12150419381174297, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.943893460701844, "btb": { "id": "8485512", "name": "Tim Washe", "score": 40.943893460701844, "components": { "Goal model": 45.75835475578406, "SOG model": 30.848329048843187, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 55.012853470437015, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.767915844838924, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.261944958159334, "unitPlayers": [ "A.J. Greer", "Tim Washe", "Sam Colangelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 260 } }, { "id": "8485702", "name": "Maxim Shabanov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "currentTOI": 14.798611111111112, "currentFiveTOI": 11.18611111111111, "ppShare": 0.6734203296703297, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.723611111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.249, "currentIXG": 0.18741666666666668, "priorTOI": 13.682954545454544, "priorPPTOI": 1.531818181818182, "deploymentChange": 1.1156565656565682, "ppTOIChange": 1.191792929292929, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020633", "date": "20260101", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.95 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 281.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.416666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.852839394111307, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.7427597955707, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 105.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 69.0, "L": 36.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.75, "L": 3.0, "R": 5.75, "D": 5.916666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.416666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1219952795007775, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 71.0, "goalExpected": 0.14665286268664643, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15268879637384, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1364062890103822, "goalProbability": 0.14160318354920828, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5196894538826075, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.2021191581081774, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.9168115222249815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.50739418663947, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.18611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6734203296703297, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.212553418803418, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8368191120444726, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.917945295310641, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491840183472272, "Position_Factor": 1.0307968238292269, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1961.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2912.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.4863813229571985, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.341246290801187, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.681818181818182, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3342030196066418, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0261828814460394, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7997948490702143, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1110686187750594, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.325190228273929, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.337349397590361, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020633", "date": "20260101", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T14:15:17.577Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": -6.673505030992857, "index": 93.32649496900714, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.058823529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.925547876540605, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.749999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9802290491055174, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.66176470588235, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.346172320482111, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.63235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.442817030166495, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.970588235294118, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.277691584941877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.926470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.462778040973518, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": 3.7022872925019783, "index": 103.70228729250198, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.078605581724275, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.043599265601216, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.636363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.9422509261882084, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4734348626821827, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.789942353962758, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.35475434615347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.673505030992857, "zonePPFit": 3.7022872925019783, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.161950054152578, "attemptProjection": 1.2690568260878503, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8054.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.18611111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.5077395063450006, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.924854276040596, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764552422681195 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1961.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.8368191120444726, "projectedAttempts": 0.6943769371653987, "onNet": 0.4906619327853704, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0806977871282815, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0410096808610017 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7907960221660425, "ppAdjusted": 0.3413740846208384, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.215503440120214, "baseline": 1.2727272727272727, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 44, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.0032274219575985, "gsax": 5.789, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021021", "date": "20260310", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3594.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.433 }, { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.842 }, { "gameId": "2025020131", "date": "20251025", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.868 }, { "gameId": "2024020942", "date": "20250227", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3577.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.819 }, { "gameId": "2024020766", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.827 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485702", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020633", "date": "20260101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2383929731630374, "adjustedSOG": 1.2266522021512014, "reductionPct": 0.9480650541684121, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7907960221660425, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7807694709554033, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7907960221660426, "afterRecentZones": 0.7907960221660426, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7907960221660426, "adjusted": 0.7807694709554034, "playerFactor": 0.9873209387381896, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7997948490702143, "newChartFactor": 0.7974574961431689, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.36666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9063695701102858, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1388422276779944, "defenseRecentMinutes": 257.96666666666664, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3413740846208384, "afterPlayerForm": 0.332947489476473, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3413740846208384, "afterRecentZones": 0.34023106459046715, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.34023106459046715, "adjusted": 0.33183268414508377, "playerFactor": 0.9753156565656566, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1110686187750594, "newChartFactor": 1.1025865786567446, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8337585034013605, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0016576471161815, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2266522021512014, "adjustedSOG": 1.2021191581081774, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 247, "beforeSOG": 1.2021191581081774, "adjustedSOG": 1.2021191581081774 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.14852828487109565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14852828487109565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13802437404377718, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861192794632953, "modelSOG": 1.2021191581081774, "historyGames": 56, "seasonGames": { "2025": 44, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 71.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11267605633802817, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1219952795007775, "goalieFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.889669423340436, "btb": { "id": "8485702", "name": "Maxim Shabanov", "score": 45.889669423340436, "components": { "Goal model": 49.3573264781491, "SOG model": 36.760925449871465, "Unit attack": 60.714285714285715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 37.93103448275862, "Shot quality": 60.15424164524421, "Goalie": 9.925093632958802, "Team H2H": 48.717948717948715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.675871766303257, "unitPlayers": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 209 } }, { "id": "8486025", "name": "Viggo Björck", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.134848484848483, "currentFiveTOI": 11.94090909090909, "ppShare": 0.2261904761904762, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0075757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.229, "currentIXG": 0.11172727272727273, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.453179800738695, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.669291338582674, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 51.0, "C": 91.0, "D": 89.0, "L": 57.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.583333333333333, "L": 4.75, "R": 4.25, "D": 7.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11586884749975862, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 11.0, "goalExpected": 0.10320391001645692, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10534989506526919, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09805696049086539, "goalProbability": 0.09999044141593978, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.19334809250743934, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.8906959225314803, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.567948229920061, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.413533834586466, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.94090909090909, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2261904761904762, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.402272727272727, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2219426406926408, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9131474877945414, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9701643357254254, "Position_Factor": 0.9886036540375441, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 665.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8925409245341296, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8064349727883569, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.465885596140593, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.5813953488372094, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:08:53.052Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -6.4521675737214395, "index": 93.54783242627856, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9698386123559857, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.52941176470588, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.649544155587677, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.411764705882355, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.137558430598745, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.76695590599192, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.52941176470588, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.030911046481378, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.105941563891719, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -10.356874610548047, "index": 89.64312538945195, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.071297270405907, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.1933001140646695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.356874610548047, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.592793968220505, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -35.8983237643444, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 46.96653278315313, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.4521675737214395, "zonePPFit": -10.356874610548047, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8664401669758811, "attemptProjection": 0.9149516780870794, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7881.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.94090909090909, "projectedAttempts": 1.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.5001834209677958, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8752222865611264, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0300444235073982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 665.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2219426406926408, "projectedAttempts": 0.11025046382189241, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9164928413074579, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0103568749139886 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8167913534804263, "ppAdjusted": 0.07390456905105404, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8906959225314803, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "savePct": 1.0, "gaa": 0.0, "gsax": 0.329, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021204", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "WPG", "shotsAgainst": 2.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 924.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.329 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486025", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8906959225314803, "adjustedSOG": 0.8906959225314803, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8906959225314803, "adjustedSOG": 0.8906959225314803, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 321, "beforeSOG": 0.8906959225314803, "adjustedSOG": 0.8906959225314803 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.10591674700718243, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10591674700718243, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10050046901323977, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861442072473206, "modelSOG": 0.8906959225314803, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 11.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11586884749975862, "goalieFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 41.65572505539578, "btb": { "id": "8486025", "name": "Viggo Björck", "score": 41.65572505539578, "components": { "Goal model": 34.70437017994858, "SOG model": 17.737789203084834, "Unit attack": 46.42857142857143, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.334190231362467, "Goalie": 36.51685393258427, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4131903584628223, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 251 } }, { "id": "8486052", "name": "Nikita Klepov", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.05, "currentFiveTOI": 11.475, "ppShare": 0.26572908956328645, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:22:25.785Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4958333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 437.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.61538461538461, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.5109923382744, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.69391486027683, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.92307692307692, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 103.0, "L": 98.0, "R": 103.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.23076923076923, "L": 7.538461538461538, "R": 7.923076923076923, "D": 7.923076923076923 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 36.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.857142857142854, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.61538461538461, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.923076923076923, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12860197267120094, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.02509315740017183, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02509315740017183, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024780941075548527, "goalProbability": 0.024780941075548527, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.1951226476465332, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26572908956328645, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.703729603729604, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2499177851509458, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1495892894082647, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0249616817777094, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 359.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1351.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.39196734689598606, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2754.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.475, "projectedAttempts": 0.5, "onNet": 0.4817212490479817, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.093467150143957, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305961146286995 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 359.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2499177851509458, "projectedAttempts": 0.20889990838177366, "onNet": 0.4991841588539506, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.005124323983413 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.13571568835317838, "ppAdjusted": 0.06026798509481466, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.19598367344799303, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8486052", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.19598367344799303, "adjustedSOG": 0.1951226476465332, "reductionPct": 0.439335474384972, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.13571568835317838, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13571568835317838, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13571568835317838, "afterRecentZones": 0.13571568835317838, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13571568835317838, "adjusted": 0.13571568835317838, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0008441160892392, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.18333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06026798509481466, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06026798509481466, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05940695929335483, "afterRecentZones": 0.06026798509481466, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05940695929335483, "adjusted": 0.05940695929335483, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9857133799959423, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.983333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8946930611634515, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.766666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.1951226476465332, "adjustedSOG": 0.1951226476465332, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.1951226476465332, "adjustedSOG": 0.1951226476465332 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860197267120094, "modelSOG": 0.1951226476465332, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 0.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12860197267120094, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8486103", "name": "Ivar Stenberg", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 15.831944444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 12.051388888888889, "ppShare": 0.5580505230926257, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.387, "currentIXG": 0.28225, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.454545454545453, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.043502101992324, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.1578947368421, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 61.0, "D": 71.0, "R": 73.0, "C": 86.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.818181818181818, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.636363636363637, "D": 6.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.454545454545453, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13440334165365916, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.17817682559542042, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17817682559542042, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1632055562699079, "goalProbability": 0.1632055562699079, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 1.3256874673143182, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.563789328108793, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.584362139917696, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.051388888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5580505230926257, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.966982323232323, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7718270836716234, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9245306745370561, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0181477848907963, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2187.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0522143109629853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.042780748663102, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9596849344194034, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0097942220116702, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.893964110929853, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.996668517490283, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ivar Stenberg", "Macklin Celebrini", "Collin Graf" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/san-jose-sharks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T17:44:58.438Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -1.3438355193532203, "index": 98.65616448064678, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.189268728238702, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 41.17647058823529, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.067307486786092, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.796695171968281, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.411764705882355, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.898901708196718, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.03670058298286, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.253553385923496, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 13.876199531724339, "index": 113.87619953172434, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.054303734999621, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.546639763786601, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.876199531724339, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4671255972902486, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.91187673357544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 25.746361317865123, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3438355193532203, "zonePPFit": 13.876199531724339, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5254500419164445, "attemptProjection": 1.227381884702441, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8677.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.051388888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5418239907057798, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9132695324201998, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.039033921082724 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2187.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7718270836716234, "projectedAttempts": 0.4562678327031479, "onNet": 0.5727654698242934, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0975635547864246, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0175084614956584 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8055867185713577, "ppAdjusted": 0.32082924473808505, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3764159633094426, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481551", "goalieName": "Colten Ellis", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8486103", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3764159633094426, "adjustedSOG": 1.3256874673143182, "reductionPct": 3.6855498154172217, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8055867185713577, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8038320820880847, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7841021040709248, "afterRecentZones": 0.8042330788390335, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7827845652662242, "adjusted": 0.781079593814864, "playerFactor": 0.9978219148319815, "defenseFactor": 0.9733304757822546, "oldChartFactor": 0.9596849344194034, "newChartFactor": 0.9568780957850637, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.06666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.984828995157385, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755351070214042, "defenseRecentMinutes": 249.95, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.32082924473808505, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2953976582649442, "afterRecentDefense": 0.31997146525768516, "afterRecentZones": 0.32082924473808505, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.31997146525768516, "adjusted": 0.29460787349945405, "playerFactor": 0.9207317073170732, "defenseFactor": 0.9973263675476337, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 21.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5547945205479452, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9800550206327373, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.233333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3256874673143182, "adjustedSOG": 1.3256874673143182, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 214, "beforeSOG": 1.3256874673143182, "adjustedSOG": 1.3256874673143182 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.2066236509642331, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1944768157757432, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18667431326639172, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9939578068182686 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285959431513178, "modelSOG": 1.3256874673143182, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 18.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13440334165365916, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 52.3583057901824, "btb": { "id": "8486103", "name": "Ivar Stenberg", "score": 52.3583057901824, "components": { "Goal model": 60.15424164524421, "SOG model": 45.24421593830334, "Unit attack": 22.61904761904762, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 83.03341902313625, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.180398023684566, "unitPlayers": [ "Ivar Stenberg", "Macklin Celebrini", "Collin Graf" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 149 } }, { "id": "8486130", "name": "Dylan Hryckowian", "position": "R", "priorGP": 0, "priorSOG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.970149253731344, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.322727272727272, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9458578070812849, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9775748224547695, "Position_Factor": 1.0126724991491074, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 132.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9795785760698041, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.4866310160427805, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8808612052055191, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8628727651103539, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9775748224547695 }, "inputs": null, "team": "DAL", "isHome": true, "opponent": "NJD", "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 264.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.0, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076923076923077, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "R": 58.0, "L": 49.0, "C": 83.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.454545454545454, "R": 5.2727272727272725, "D": 6.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.2727272727272725, "currentGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": 10.05, "currentFiveTOI": 10.05, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.048, "currentIXGTotal": 0.048, "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.6431554289149893, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.12732980615134684, "goalProbability": 0.07862932733463335, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Line 3", "lineMates": [ "Jamie Benn", "Arttu Hyry", "Dylan Hryckowian" ], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T15:18:03.421Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -3.971293159816028, "index": 96.02870684018397, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.2630267538702498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.096389614371489, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.971293159816028, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.987434723589715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4088532135836545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.658256790264929, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.971293159816028, "zonePPFit": null, "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8628727651103542, "attemptProjection": 0.4544608517381083, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 603.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.05, "projectedAttempts": 1.0000000000000002, "onNet": 0.5107746068724519, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9007360412300128, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9878014044957982 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5091678420310296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9411696819696831, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0034075815968821 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6586668084242312, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6586668084242312, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 0, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": null, "goalieName": "Connor Hellebuyck", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8486130", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6586668084242312, "adjustedSOG": 0.6431554289149893, "reductionPct": 2.3549660178491028, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6586668084242312, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6586668084242312, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6431554289149893, "afterRecentZones": 0.6522304258690542, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6431554289149893, "adjusted": 0.6431554289149893, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9600625800028445, "oldChartFactor": 0.8808612052055191, "newChartFactor": 0.861430558538334, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8139534883720929, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.55, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9696095469818098, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7293923449912307, "defenseRecentMinutes": 17.95, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6431554289149893, "adjustedSOG": 0.6431554289149893, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 369, "beforeSOG": 0.6431554289149893, "adjustedSOG": 0.6431554289149893 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.08189285608893193, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08189285608893193, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07862932733463335, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286031042128603, "modelSOG": 0.6431554289149893, "historyGames": 1, "seasonGames": { "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12732980615134684, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 38.781980658587344, "btb": { "id": "8486130", "name": "Dylan Hryckowian", "score": 38.781980658587344, "components": { "Goal model": 27.763496143958868, "SOG model": 5.3984575835475574, "Unit attack": 48.80952380952381, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 55.7840616966581, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.43188422230703, "unitPlayers": [ "Jamie Benn", "Arttu Hyry", "Dylan Hryckowian" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 282 } }, { "id": "8486189", "name": "Vitali Pinchuk", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.023333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 6.836666666666666, "ppShare": 0.2328767123287671, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:03:56.097Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 27 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.359, "currentIXG": 0.0718, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 293.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.636363636363637, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.101290869688118, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.52786165248422, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 72.0, "L": 59.0, "D": 73.0, "C": 89.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.090909090909092, "L": 5.363636363636363, "R": 6.545454545454546, "D": 6.636363636363637 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.636363636363637, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.090909090909092, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12366009515126533, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.08077642059253379, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08077642059253379, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07760010198537728, "goalProbability": 0.07760010198537728, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": 0.6532133142362964, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.2657240370550955, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.836666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2328767123287671, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.257575757575758, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2243669572436695, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9876636048361896, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9020137720462691, "Position_Factor": 0.9844154321502332, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-26", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 340.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1460.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.924958205252656, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.443850267379679, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9917931582394661, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2180715250317617, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.91736721962704, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.098717290916051, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.2657240370550955, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-26" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-26", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -0.27356139201779683, "index": 99.7264386079822, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.3570670524896826, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.17649548077126553, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.7196584825948804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4857066541242432, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8633308424116564, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.953958586257841, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 7.269050834392061, "index": 107.26905083439206, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.682273664182233, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -13.999347459650409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.269050834392061, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.131231439030657, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.981680396105716, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.14755745853681, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.27356139201779683, "zonePPFit": 7.269050834392061, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7878144164262051, "attemptProjection": 0.5186122120463876, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261026", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2051.0, "expectedMinutes": 6.836666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 0.7999999999999999, "onNet": 0.5280189423835834, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.971489131590509, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9998830177654279 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 340.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2243669572436695, "projectedAttempts": 0.21606475716064755, "onNet": 0.529886442472706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9440627542495001, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0018776328206325 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4803720283068874, "ppAdjusted": 0.17284128592940892, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6532133142362964, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8473575", "goalieName": "Semyon Varlamov", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8486189", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6532133142362964, "adjustedSOG": 0.6532133142362964, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "shot event snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6532133142362964, "adjustedSOG": 0.6532133142362964, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6532133142362964, "adjustedSOG": 0.6532133142362964 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.07479492243901643, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07479492243901643, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07206623478975485, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860649895731593, "modelSOG": 0.6532133142362964, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12366009515126533, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "CAR-Juuso-Valimaki", "name": "Juuso Valimaki", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T14:34:51.129Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 57.0, "L": 81.0, "D": 81.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.666666666666666, "L": 6.75, "R": 4.75, "D": 6.75 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Shayne Gostisbehere", "Juuso Valimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-26 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 147.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.891156462585034, "gaa": 4.04522789521736, "gsax": -2.7399999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021237", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.508 }, { "gameId": "2025020301", "date": "20251117", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.156 }, { "gameId": "2025020181", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.183 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3580.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.986 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 1772.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.427 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": null, "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/carolina-hurricanes/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782747603833866, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 0, "seasonGames": {}, "historyGoals": null, "historyShots": null, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 53.27539794007491, "btb": { "id": "CAR-Juuso-Valimaki", "name": "Juuso Valimaki", "score": 53.27539794007491, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 85.9375, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 96.81647940074906, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2469531682799753, "unitPlayers": [ "Shayne Gostisbehere", "Juuso Valimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 140 } }, { "id": "8479371", "name": "Dante Fabbro", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T16:54:40.853Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 409.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.46153846153846, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.27738092029005, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.25373134328358, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 115.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 81.0, "L": 77.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 5.923076923076923, "R": 6.230769230769231, "D": 8.846153846153847 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.46153846153846, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.846153846153847, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020698", "date": "20250114", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020449", "date": "20241210", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [ "Dante Fabbro", "Erik Gudbranson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-26 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 93.0, "goalsAgainst": 8.0, "savePct": 0.9139784946236559, "gaa": 2.0072483969891275, "gsax": 0.7900000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.961 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.878 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.435 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.516 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478435", "goalieName": "Dan Vladar", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479371", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-26; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05771476994251426, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 74 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 157.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477070", "name": "Liam O'Brien", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T16:59:20.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.30769230769231, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 98.0, "C": 136.0, "R": 43.0, "L": 47.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.461538461538462, "L": 3.6153846153846154, "R": 3.3076923076923075, "D": 7.538461538461538 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 9, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.88888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.923076923076923, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3076923076923075, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "History pending reconciliation for newly listed skater.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jack McBain", "Kevin Stenlund", "Liam O'Brien" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-26 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020932", "date": "20260227", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8477070", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286536836174109, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 66, "seasonGames": { "2024": 28, "2025": 38 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 69.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 50.0, "btb": { "id": "8477070", "name": "Liam O'Brien", "score": 50.0, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 83.33333333333333, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8422463066102637, "unitPlayers": [ "Jack McBain", "Kevin Stenlund", "Liam O'Brien" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 174 } }, { "id": "8480007", "name": "Jonas Rondbjerg", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.916666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Rondbjerg", "Nic Dowd", "Marc Gatcomb" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-26 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8480007", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286212115878771, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2024": 13, "2025": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 43.25441412520064, "btb": { "id": "8480007", "name": "Jonas Rondbjerg", "score": 43.25441412520064, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 39.285714285714285, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2904611616533135, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Rondbjerg", "Nic Dowd", "Marc Gatcomb" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 235 } }, { "id": "8481572", "name": "Ville Heinola", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T18:52:37.414Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "priorGP": 0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 27 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020574", "date": "20241228", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.850350740452065, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.11783960720131, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 114.0, "D": 79.0, "L": 59.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.5, "L": 4.916666666666667, "R": 4.916666666666667, "D": 6.583333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-26; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020574", "date": "20241228", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ville Heinola", "Rasmus Andersson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-26", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-26", "shotChart": "2026-10-26", "goalie": "2026-10-26" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-26. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-26 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [] }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "coverageNote": "Historical source unavailable for the newly listed goalie in this retained snapshot; no matchup estimate imputed.", "shooterId": "8481572", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "starterStatus": "Confirmed" }, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October27 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785256044382548, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 23, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 19.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 44.950842696629216, "btb": { "id": "8481572", "name": "Ville Heinola", "score": 44.950842696629216, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 56.25, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 43.258426966292134, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6395952934927362, "unitPlayers": [ "Ville Heinola", "Rasmus Andersson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 218 } } ], "games": [ { "away": "CBJ", "home": "PHI", "awayName": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "homeName": "Philadelphia Flyers", "date": "2026-10-27T23:00Z", "eventId": "401892585" }, { "away": "BOS", "home": "CAR", "awayName": "Boston Bruins", "homeName": "Carolina Hurricanes", "date": "2026-10-28T00:00Z", "eventId": "401892586" }, { "away": "LAK", "home": "CHI", "awayName": "Los Angeles Kings", "homeName": "Chicago Blackhawks", "date": "2026-10-28T00:00Z", "eventId": "401892587" }, { "away": "MTL", "home": "STL", "awayName": "Montreal Canadiens", "homeName": "St. Louis Blues", "date": "2026-10-28T00:00Z", "eventId": "401892588" }, { "away": "NYI", "home": "NSH", 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"shotsAgainst": 198.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8480981", "name": "Joel Hofer", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9170305676855895, "gaa": 2.3981487974195357, "gsax": 3.2169999999999987, "gsax60": 0.40604445691045493, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481020", "name": "Justus Annunen", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.8461538461538461, "gaa": 4.0, "gsax": -1.0499999999999998, "gsax60": -0.5249999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 52.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481033", "name": "Akira Schmid", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "gsax60": -0.3731653727845322, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481035", "name": "Samuel Ersson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8350515463917526, "gaa": 4.585987261146497, "gsax": -5.754999999999999, "gsax60": -1.6495222929936302, "shotsAgainst": 97.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481519", "name": "Spencer Knight", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "gsax60": -0.13037461821355095, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481551", "name": "Colten Ellis", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "gsax60": 0.065483584738243, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481611", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "gsax60": 0.6218839951106029, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482076", "name": "Nico Daws", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8735632183908046, "gaa": 2.7769985974754556, "gsax": -2.289999999999999, "gsax60": -0.5781206171107992, "shotsAgainst": 87.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482137", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "gsax60": 0.38661845921570226, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482447", "name": "Leevi Merilinen", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "gsax60": 0.5536173201669217, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482487", "name": "Jakub Dobes", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8472222222222222, "gaa": 4.472302219210571, "gsax": -6.196, "gsax60": -1.2595629341013044, "shotsAgainst": 144.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482657", "name": "Sebastian Cossa", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8200000000000001, "gaa": 3.332304844183894, "gsax": -2.6869999999999994, "gsax60": -0.9948781240357911, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482661", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "gsax60": 0.7197288816367514, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482821", "name": "Arvid Soderblom", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.8200000000000001, "gaa": 4.582095884599067, "gsax": -2.8499999999999996, "gsax60": -1.4509970301230375, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482982", "name": "Jet Greaves", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8832116788321168, "gaa": 3.3381628513474357, "gsax": -0.38400000000000034, "gsax60": -0.08011590843233853, "shotsAgainst": 137.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483532", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "gsax60": -0.17266844309097815, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483548", "name": "Brandon Bussi", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8648648648648649, "gaa": 3.2663430567527105, "gsax": -4.606, "gsax60": -0.7522388059701491, "shotsAgainst": 148.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483575", "name": "Matt Murray", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 1.8475750577367205, "gsax": 0.8300000000000001, "gsax60": 0.7667436489607391, "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8484170", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "gsax60": 0.9964633706243233, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8484900", "name": "Cooper Black", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 3.153284671532847, "gsax": -1.009, "gsax60": -1.0605547445255474, "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": null, "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "gsax60": null, "shotsAgainst": 0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalies": { "PHI": { "id": "8478435", "team": "PHI", "name": "Dan Vladar", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.755, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9880112489960132, "factor": 0.9880112489960132, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "CBJ": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8909090909090909, "gaa": 2.8198433420365534, "gsax": 1.4529999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.453, "shotsAgainst": 110.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9889036268995984, "factor": 0.9889036268995984, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "CHI": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8904593639575972, "gaa": 3.4781524652496416, "gsax": -1.161999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 31.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 29.838, "shotsAgainst": 283.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0128112074674112, "factor": 1.0128112074674112, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "LAK": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8941176470588236, "gaa": 2.4759284731774414, "gsax": -1.0030000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.997, "shotsAgainst": 85.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106351323368252, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "CAR": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.916083916083916, "gaa": 1.7034028626631441, "gsax": 4.381, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.381, "shotsAgainst": 143.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9640240518868214, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "BOS": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9196787148594378, "gaa": 2.198674687757657, "gsax": 6.053000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.053, "shotsAgainst": 249.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9545466745818577, "factor": 0.9545466745818577, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "WPG": { "id": "8483532", "team": "WPG", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5039999999999996, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.496, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0059869708282343, "factor": 1.0059869708282343, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "FLA": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.87248322147651, "gaa": 3.3396806796543137, "gsax": -2.123000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.877, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0207936409431588, "factor": 1.0207936409431588, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "NSH": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.038, "shotsAgainst": 250.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9788475917320725, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "NYI": { "id": "8473575", "team": "NYI", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.087, "shotsAgainst": 69.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.964228174222667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "DAL": { "id": "8479193", "team": "DAL", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.835, "shotsAgainst": 53.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926522096076061, "factor": 0.9926522096076061, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "NJD": { "id": null, "team": "NJD", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": 0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "No current-season appearances in supplied snapshot. No goalie performance adjustment. Starter status: Confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "STL": { "id": "8476412", "team": "STL", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 14.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.972, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.048218169619231, "factor": 1.048218169619231, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "MTL": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9241379310344827, "gaa": 1.7863587152652471, "gsax": 6.135999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.136, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9491352750997714, "factor": 0.9491352750997714, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "UTA": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 10, "savePct": 0.8733624454148472, "gaa": 3.1321252850114005, "gsax": -4.649000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 29.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.351, "shotsAgainst": 229.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0411579670291917, "factor": 1.0411579670291917, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "MIN": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.964, "shotsAgainst": 282.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9420298155731877, "factor": 0.9420298155731877, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "VGK": { "id": "8478499", "team": "VGK", "name": "Adin Hill", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.954856361149111, "gsax": -2.0020000000000007, "goalsAllowed": 15.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.998, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0198641035974105, "factor": 1.0198641035974105, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "OTT": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 4.029099048684947, "gsax": -0.43900000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.561, "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0048637459488936, "factor": 1.0048637459488936, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "ANA": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8803827751196173, "gaa": 3.2729653065677504, "gsax": 1.626999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.627, "shotsAgainst": 209.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9903443970388119, "factor": 0.9903443970388119, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "VAN": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9117647058823529, "gaa": 3.1235797215221255, "gsax": 3.7220000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.722, "shotsAgainst": 238.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9728808515708556, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Listed candidate; October 27 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "SJS": { "id": "8482137", "team": "SJS", "name": "Yaroslav Askarov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.883495145631068, "gaa": 3.432794310461282, "gsax": 2.703000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 24.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.703000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 206.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9817302381575834, "factor": 0.9817302381575834, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Confirmed for October 27.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "BUF": { "id": "8481551", "team": "BUF", "name": "Colten Ellis", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-27T18:58:27.732311+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-27", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "goalsAllowed": 8.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 8.164, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9996800117268848, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } }, "positionDefenses": [ { "team": "ANA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 300.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.8975468975469, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.513513513513516, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 43.0, "C": 107.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 80.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.727272727272727, "L": 3.909090909090909, "R": 7.2727272727272725, "D": 6.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "BOS", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 335.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.272946724302475, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.008582420834564, 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"venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, { "team": "CAR", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 291.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.384615384615383, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 20.95762010307902, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.77544596012592, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.69230769230769, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 56.0, "D": 63.0, "R": 78.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.230769230769231, "L": 4.3076923076923075, "R": 6.0, "D": 4.846153846153846 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "CBJ", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 249.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.08499774740952, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.98242873877392, 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"venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 336.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.545454545454547, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.63565794415926, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.87876688604087, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.90909090909091, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 109.0, "D": 88.0, "L": 80.0, "R": 59.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.909090909090908, "L": 7.2727272727272725, "R": 5.363636363636363, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, 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"home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "DET", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 309.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.92670555414659, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.45222072678331, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 92.0, "C": 115.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.583333333333334, "L": 3.9166666666666665, "R": 4.583333333333333, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, 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"venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, { "team": "LAK", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 288.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.8, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.805026784811833, "pkSogAllowed60": 63.4299138606108, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.9, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "L": 46.0, "C": 116.0, "R": 49.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.6, "L": 4.6, "R": 4.9, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-26" }, { "team": "MIN", "games": 13, "sogAllowedTotal": 324.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.923076923076923, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.707191142811517, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.478873239436616, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 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Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "LAK": { "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 28.84721498043886, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.500522219601766, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 29.63565794415926, "teamMinutes": 49.468333333333334, "opponentMinutes": 48.406060606060606, "expectedMinutes": 48.93719696969697, "matchupSOG60": 27.068090081880513, "shots": 22.07727426550813 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 41.76, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 49.87876688604087, "teamMinutes": 4.166666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 4.374242424242424, "expectedMinutes": 4.270454545454545, "matchupSOG60": 45.819383443020435, "shots": 3.261159904902855 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 18.324197337509787, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 13.846153846153847, "teamMinutes": 4.256666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.7272727272727275, "expectedMinutes": 4.491969696969697, "matchupSOG60": 16.085175591831817, "shots": 1.2042353554824188 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.7, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.9090909090909092, "shots": 2.3045454545454547 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "CHI": { "team": "CHI", "opponent": "LAK", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 25.106446819595696, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 20.17027669963691, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.805026784811833, "teamMinutes": 48.406060606060606, "opponentMinutes": 49.468333333333334, "expectedMinutes": 48.93719696969697, "matchupSOG60": 23.487651742224372, "shots": 19.156997327748005 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 35.76923076923077, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 63.4299138606108, "teamMinutes": 4.7272727272727275, "opponentMinutes": 4.256666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 4.491969696969697, "matchupSOG60": 49.599572314920785, "shots": 3.713329597021355 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.481815032906131, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.2, "teamMinutes": 4.374242424242424, "opponentMinutes": 4.166666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 4.270454545454545, "matchupSOG60": 7.340907516453066, "shots": 0.5224835311899738 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.7272727272727273, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.7, "shots": 1.7136363636363636 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "MTL": { "team": "MTL", "opponent": "STL", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 28.6743670047574, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 27.063358073455866, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.796259842519685, "teamMinutes": 47.56515151515152, "opponentMinutes": 49.26060606060606, "expectedMinutes": 48.41287878787879, "matchupSOG60": 26.929808957987774, "shots": 21.729159614396576 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 36.92307692307692, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.20179085385353, "teamMinutes": 3.840909090909091, "opponentMinutes": 4.737878787878788, "expectedMinutes": 4.289393939393939, "matchupSOG60": 42.06243388846522, "shots": 3.0070391499556828 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 10.124209046168268, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 18.69158878504673, "teamMinutes": 6.465151515151515, "opponentMinutes": 4.377272727272727, "expectedMinutes": 5.421212121212121, "matchupSOG60": 14.407898915607499, "shots": 1.3018046040415059 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 3.8181818181818183, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.4545454545454546, "shots": 2.6363636363636367 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "STL": { "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 26.457974944249198, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.135334645669293, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.967126429458798, "teamMinutes": 49.26060606060606, "opponentMinutes": 47.56515151515152, "expectedMinutes": 48.41287878787879, "matchupSOG60": 24.551230537564045, "shots": 19.80992913513927 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 46.10591900311527, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 48.933677056479965, "teamMinutes": 4.377272727272727, "opponentMinutes": 6.465151515151515, "expectedMinutes": 5.421212121212121, "matchupSOG60": 47.51979802979761, "shots": 4.293581751278178 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 13.81515829868884, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.36094674556213, "teamMinutes": 4.737878787878788, "opponentMinutes": 3.840909090909091, "expectedMinutes": 4.289393939393939, "matchupSOG60": 12.588052522125484, "shots": 0.8999186032862939 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.3636363636363635, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.5454545454545454, "shots": 1.4545454545454546 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NYI": { "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 27.66712562878402, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.327428625270894, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.707471404234607, "teamMinutes": 48.24090909090909, "opponentMinutes": 49.806060606060605, "expectedMinutes": 49.02348484848485, "matchupSOG60": 26.51745001475275, "shots": 21.666296816978097 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 43.42715743891123, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 34.306134603930914, "teamMinutes": 4.898484848484848, "opponentMinutes": 5.087878787878788, "expectedMinutes": 4.993181818181818, "matchupSOG60": 38.866646021421076, "shots": 3.2344705041311403 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 13.834751578369476, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.91901728844404, "teamMinutes": 5.5196969696969695, "opponentMinutes": 4.995454545454546, "expectedMinutes": 5.257575757575758, "matchupSOG60": 12.376884433406758, "shots": 1.0845401258566023 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 0.9090909090909091, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.4545454545454546, "shots": 1.6818181818181819 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NSH": { "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 26.25471757958692, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 22.669749330737407, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 25.101290869688118, "teamMinutes": 49.806060606060605, "opponentMinutes": 48.24090909090909, "expectedMinutes": 49.02348484848485, "matchupSOG60": 23.885520100212762, "shots": 19.515857212182677 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 45.859872611464965, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 39.52786165248422, "teamMinutes": 4.995454545454546, "opponentMinutes": 5.5196969696969695, "expectedMinutes": 5.257575757575758, "matchupSOG60": 42.69386713197459, "shots": 3.7411040138371674 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 12.864800476474091, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.021651716671823, "teamMinutes": 5.087878787878788, "opponentMinutes": 4.898484848484848, "expectedMinutes": 4.993181818181818, "matchupSOG60": 11.443226096572957, "shots": 0.9523018081125298 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.090909090909091, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.0, "shots": 2.0454545454545454 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NJD": { "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 28.140725614134453, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 32.967032967032964, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 19.726943438283644, "teamMinutes": 49.63636363636363, "opponentMinutes": 48.940909090909095, "expectedMinutes": 49.288636363636364, "matchupSOG60": 26.346988202658302, "shots": 21.64345201329737 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 63.51606805293006, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 33.20388349514563, "teamMinutes": 4.809090909090909, "opponentMinutes": 6.242424242424243, "expectedMinutes": 5.525757575757575, "matchupSOG60": 48.35997577403785, "shots": 4.453758374947374 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 6.364922206506365, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 12.50868658790827, "teamMinutes": 4.284848484848485, "opponentMinutes": 4.36060606060606, "expectedMinutes": 4.322727272727272, "matchupSOG60": 9.436804397207318, "shots": 0.6798788622533453 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.3636363636363635, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.3636363636363635, "shots": 1.3636363636363635 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "DAL": { "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 25.826162099381595, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.407913067706883, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.076923076923077, "teamMinutes": 48.940909090909095, "opponentMinutes": 49.63636363636363, "expectedMinutes": 49.288636363636364, "matchupSOG60": 23.74241807231498, "shots": 19.503856845996022 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 57.53995830437804, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.82743988684583, "teamMinutes": 4.36060606060606, "opponentMinutes": 4.284848484848485, "expectedMinutes": 4.322727272727272, "matchupSOG60": 51.683699095611935, "shots": 3.7235755939338593 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 13.106796116504855, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 6.805293005671078, "teamMinutes": 6.242424242424243, "opponentMinutes": 4.809090909090909, "expectedMinutes": 5.525757575757575, "matchupSOG60": 9.956044561087966, "shots": 0.9169114776335305 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.272727272727273, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.0909090909090908, "shots": 1.6818181818181819 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "FLA": { "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 28.80228362348156, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.699121636301562, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.77273552368851, "teamMinutes": 44.74861111111111, "opponentMinutes": 50.08181818181818, "expectedMinutes": 47.41521464646465, "matchupSOG60": 26.735928579995036, "shots": 21.128163206550223 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 52.710724178868226, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 53.12621359223301, "teamMinutes": 7.019444444444445, "opponentMinutes": 3.9015151515151514, "expectedMinutes": 5.460479797979798, "matchupSOG60": 52.91846888555062, "shots": 4.816003838159528 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.086614173228346, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.346938775510204, "teamMinutes": 6.3500000000000005, "opponentMinutes": 4.454545454545454, "expectedMinutes": 5.402272727272727, "matchupSOG60": 7.216776474369276, "shots": 0.6497832454384761 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.4166666666666665, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.0, "shots": 2.208333333333333 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "WPG": { "team": "WPG", "opponent": "FLA", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 25.610463114379876, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.376656380468326, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 21.453179800738695, "teamMinutes": 50.08181818181818, "opponentMinutes": 44.74861111111111, "expectedMinutes": 47.41521464646465, "matchupSOG60": 23.41491809060351, "shots": 18.503722786589226 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.204081632653065, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.669291338582674, "teamMinutes": 4.454545454545454, "opponentMinutes": 6.3500000000000005, "expectedMinutes": 5.402272727272727, "matchupSOG60": 47.93668648561787, "shots": 4.316117567284609 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 12.58252427184466, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.123070834982192, "teamMinutes": 3.9015151515151514, "opponentMinutes": 7.019444444444445, "expectedMinutes": 5.460479797979798, "matchupSOG60": 9.852797553413426, "shots": 0.8966833665666466 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.3333333333333335, "shots": 1.893939393939394 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "MIN": { "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "teamGames": 13.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 27.289053877857263, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.934901793793582, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 21.852839394111307, "teamMinutes": 48.17179487179487, "opponentMinutes": 48.963888888888896, "expectedMinutes": 48.56784188034189, "matchupSOG60": 25.393870593952443, "shots": 20.555424862282432 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 62.617924528301884, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 52.7427597955707, "teamMinutes": 4.348717948717948, "opponentMinutes": 4.076388888888888, "expectedMinutes": 4.212553418803418, "matchupSOG60": 57.680342161936295, "shots": 4.049692042866928 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 10.140845070422536, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 4.924760601915184, "teamMinutes": 5.461538461538462, "opponentMinutes": 5.076388888888888, "expectedMinutes": 5.268963675213675, "matchupSOG60": 7.532802836168861, "shots": 0.6615010752720045 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.4615384615384617, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.5833333333333333, "shots": 2.0224358974358974 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "UTA": { "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MIN", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 13.0, "projectedSOG": 27.6689289333286, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.796732285698077, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 22.707191142811517, "teamMinutes": 48.963888888888896, "opponentMinutes": 48.17179487179487, "expectedMinutes": 48.56784188034189, "matchupSOG60": 25.751961714254797, "shots": 20.845286744109085 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 60.08207934336525, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 46.478873239436616, "teamMinutes": 5.076388888888888, "opponentMinutes": 5.461538461538462, "expectedMinutes": 5.268963675213675, "matchupSOG60": 53.28047629140093, "shots": 4.678881569624582 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 6.132879045996593, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 8.49056603773585, "teamMinutes": 4.076388888888888, "opponentMinutes": 4.348717948717948, "expectedMinutes": 4.212553418803418, "matchupSOG60": 7.311722541866221, "shots": 0.5133503631846762 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.4166666666666667, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.8461538461538463, "shots": 1.6314102564102564 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "OTT": { "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 13.0, "projectedSOG": 25.276390654863167, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 23.202829905869656, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.48910442121174, "teamMinutes": 46.330555555555556, "opponentMinutes": 50.89102564102564, "expectedMinutes": 48.6107905982906, "matchupSOG60": 23.3459671635407, "shots": 18.914432018357424 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 45.746284729700626, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.940074906367045, "teamMinutes": 6.448611111111112, "opponentMinutes": 3.0807692307692305, "expectedMinutes": 4.764690170940171, "matchupSOG60": 46.84317981803383, "shots": 3.7198873075761463 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 6.873977086743044, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 15.765069551777435, "teamMinutes": 5.091666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.976923076923077, "expectedMinutes": 5.034294871794872, "matchupSOG60": 11.31952331926024, "shots": 0.9497636366219049 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.0, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.3846153846153846, "shots": 1.6923076923076923 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "VGK": { "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "teamGames": 13.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 27.90955144853538, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.023680564302808, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.850350740452065, "teamMinutes": 50.89102564102564, "opponentMinutes": 46.330555555555556, "expectedMinutes": 48.6107905982906, "matchupSOG60": 25.937015652377436, "shots": 21.01364727703842 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.07727975270479, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 48.11783960720131, "teamMinutes": 4.976923076923077, "opponentMinutes": 5.091666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.034294871794872, "matchupSOG60": 49.09755967995305, "shots": 4.119526548573838 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 16.47940074906367, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.630411371957786, "teamMinutes": 3.0807692307692305, "opponentMinutes": 6.448611111111112, "expectedMinutes": 4.764690170940171, "matchupSOG60": 14.054906060510728, "shots": 1.1161212126667153 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.1538461538461537, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.1666666666666665, "shots": 1.6602564102564101 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "VAN": { "team": "VAN", "opponent": "ANA", "teamGames": 13.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 23.58181697473134, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 19.14641531291962, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.8975468975469, "teamMinutes": 48.69358974358974, "opponentMinutes": 47.25, "expectedMinutes": 47.97179487179487, "matchupSOG60": 23.02198110523326, "shots": 18.406762585376452 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 32.02668890742285, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 38.513513513513516, "teamMinutes": 4.611538461538462, "opponentMinutes": 5.381818181818182, "expectedMinutes": 4.996678321678322, "matchupSOG60": 35.270101210468184, "shots": 2.9372225020291123 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 5.6411595716897365, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 3.637588413607275, "teamMinutes": 4.908974358974359, "opponentMinutes": 4.498484848484849, "expectedMinutes": 4.703729603729604, "matchupSOG60": 4.639373992648506, "shots": 0.36370601319989976 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.3846153846153846, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.3636363636363638, "shots": 1.8741258741258742 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "ANA": { "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 13.0, "projectedSOG": 28.53716132661918, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 23.896103896103895, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 32.5109923382744, "teamMinutes": 47.25, "opponentMinutes": 48.69358974358974, "expectedMinutes": 47.97179487179487, "matchupSOG60": 28.203548117189147, "shots": 22.549580415576568 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 38.8009430784776, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 67.69391486027683, "teamMinutes": 4.498484848484849, "opponentMinutes": 4.908974358974359, "expectedMinutes": 4.703729603729604, "matchupSOG60": 53.24742896937722, "shots": 4.174358466095816 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 8.108108108108109, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 12.01000834028357, "teamMinutes": 5.381818181818182, "opponentMinutes": 4.611538461538462, "expectedMinutes": 4.996678321678322, "matchupSOG60": 10.059058224195839, "shots": 0.8376979694223231 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.1818181818181819, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 0.7692307692307693, "shots": 0.9755244755244756 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "BUF": { "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 28.339275871826857, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.236885395722904, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.370212765957447, "teamMinutes": 49.73636363636364, "opponentMinutes": 48.958333333333336, "expectedMinutes": 49.34734848484849, "matchupSOG60": 25.803549080840178, "shots": 21.222278810635203 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 45.21028037383178, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 53.591015931052496, "teamMinutes": 5.187878787878788, "opponentMinutes": 5.3180555555555555, "expectedMinutes": 5.252967171717172, "matchupSOG60": 49.40064815244214, "shots": 4.324999716772152 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.287449392712551, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.023220209237051, "teamMinutes": 4.490909090909091, "opponentMinutes": 5.4430555555555555, "expectedMinutes": 4.966982323232323, "matchupSOG60": 9.155334800974801, "shots": 0.7579064353285927 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.8181818181818181, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.25, "shots": 2.034090909090909 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "SJS": { "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 27.366400608993455, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.53191489361702, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 22.043502101992324, "teamMinutes": 48.958333333333336, "opponentMinutes": 49.73636363636364, "expectedMinutes": 49.34734848484849, "matchupSOG60": 23.787708497804672, "shots": 19.564339014952647 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 41.33707578463894, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 63.1578947368421, "teamMinutes": 5.4430555555555555, "opponentMinutes": 4.490909090909091, "expectedMinutes": 4.966982323232323, "matchupSOG60": 52.24748526074052, "shots": 4.325205595390658 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 11.282319143379473, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.514018691588785, "teamMinutes": 5.3180555555555555, "opponentMinutes": 5.187878787878788, "expectedMinutes": 5.252967171717172, "matchupSOG60": 10.898168917484128, "shots": 0.9541287259228766 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.5, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.5454545454545454, "shots": 2.5227272727272725 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." } }, "goalieSaveModel": { "version": "current-league-500shot-v1", "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "leagueSavePct": 0.8913662705038797, "leagueShots": 10181.0, "leagueGoals": 1106.0, "leagueGoalies": 70, "priorShots": 500, "source": "Saved MoneyPuck current-season all-situation goalie totals", "formula": "(current saves + 500 × current league save rate) / (current shots faced + 500)", "note": "Experimental 500-shot prior, not fitted. Current season only; no prior-season goalie data. Full-game-start scenario; no pull/injury, empty-net, opponent shot-quality or shared-goalie adjustment. Does not alter player SOG or goal estimates." }, "goalieSaveProjections": { "8473575:NYI": { "id": "8473575", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.25471757958692, "rawSavePct": 0.8985507246376812, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8922374960491034, "currentShots": 69.0, "currentGoals": 7.0, "currentWeight": 0.12126537785588752, "projectedSaves": 23.42544347268701, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8292741068999097, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8474593:FLA": { "id": "8474593", "name": "Jacob Markstrom", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WPG", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.610463114379876, "rawSavePct": 0.8974358974358975, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8925172370371796, "currentShots": 117.0, "currentGoals": 12.0, "currentWeight": 0.18962722852512157, "projectedSaves": 22.857779778088926, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.752683336290948, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8474596:NJD": { "id": "8474596", "name": "Jake Allen", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.826162099381595, "rawSavePct": 0.8863636363636364, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8900638095442897, "currentShots": 176.0, "currentGoals": 20.0, "currentWeight": 0.2603550295857988, "projectedSaves": 22.986932224083933, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8392298752976632, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475311:LAK": { "id": "8475311", "name": "Darcy Kuemper", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.106446819595696, "rawSavePct": 0.8894472361809045, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8908199359827464, "currentShots": 199.0, "currentGoals": 22.0, "currentWeight": 0.28469241773962806, "projectedSaves": 22.365323348586465, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.74112347100923, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475660:CBJ": { "id": "8475660", "name": "Cam Talbot", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.10592342015365, "rawSavePct": 0.8909090909090909, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8912838282818685, "currentShots": 110.0, "currentGoals": 12.0, "currentWeight": 0.18032786885245902, "projectedSaves": 22.37650353846597, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.7294198816876842, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475717:MIN": { "id": "8475717", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "UTA", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.6689289333286, "rawSavePct": 0.8333333333333334, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8868692532323613, "currentShots": 42.0, "currentGoals": 7.0, "currentWeight": 0.07749077490774908, "projectedSaves": 24.538722340840412, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.130206592488189, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8476341:LAK": { "id": "8476341", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.106446819595696, "rawSavePct": 0.8941176470588236, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8917660431657091, "currentShots": 85.0, "currentGoals": 9.0, "currentWeight": 0.1452991452991453, "projectedSaves": 22.389076738261156, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.7173700813345416, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8476412:STL": { "id": "8476412", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "team": "STL", "opponent": "MTL", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.6743670047574, "rawSavePct": 0.8313253012048193, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8828184138112175, "currentShots": 83.0, "currentGoals": 14.0, "currentWeight": 0.1423670668953688, "projectedSaves": 25.31425919618064, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.3601078085767604, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8476999:OTT": { "id": "8476999", "name": "Linus Ullmark", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.90955144853538, "rawSavePct": 0.945054945054945, "adjustedSavePct": 0.905693746703724, "currentShots": 182.0, "currentGoals": 10.0, "currentWeight": 0.2668621700879765, "projectedSaves": 25.27750622024436, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.632045228291023, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8477424:NSH": { "id": "8477424", "name": "Juuse Saros", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NYI", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.66712562878402, "rawSavePct": 0.908, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8969108470025864, "currentShots": 250.0, "currentGoals": 23.0, "currentWeight": 0.3333333333333333, "projectedSaves": 24.814945081839642, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8521805469443793, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8477968:SJS": { "id": "8477968", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.339275871826857, "rawSavePct": 0.9032258064516129, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8941727255754807, "currentShots": 155.0, "currentGoals": 15.0, "currentWeight": 0.2366412213740458, "projectedSaves": 25.340207547146875, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.99906832467998, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8477992:OTT": { "id": "8477992", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "VGK", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.90955144853538, "rawSavePct": 0.8571428571428572, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8895513925226134, "currentShots": 28.0, "currentGoals": 4.0, "currentWeight": 0.05303030303030303, "projectedSaves": 24.82698035572617, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.082571092809211, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478009:NYI": { "id": "8478009", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.25471757958692, "rawSavePct": 0.918552036199095, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8996992167155892, "currentShots": 221.0, "currentGoals": 18.0, "currentWeight": 0.3065187239944521, "projectedSaves": 23.62134884144336, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.633368738143559, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478024:ANA": { "id": "8478024", "name": "Ville Husso", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "VAN", "projectedShotsFaced": 23.58181697473134, "rawSavePct": 0.8876404494382022, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8908032856569437, "currentShots": 89.0, "currentGoals": 10.0, "currentWeight": 0.15110356536502548, "projectedSaves": 21.006760042851365, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.575056931879975, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478435:PHI": { "id": "8478435", "name": "Dan Vladar", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "projectedShotsFaced": 29.101300522316524, "rawSavePct": 0.9, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8937436742781736, "currentShots": 190.0, "currentGoals": 19.0, "currentWeight": 0.2753623188405797, "projectedSaves": 26.0091032550885, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.092197267228022, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478499:VGK": { "id": "8478499", "name": "Adin Hill", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.276390654863167, "rawSavePct": 0.8818897637795275, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8894467866857094, "currentShots": 127.0, "currentGoals": 15.0, "currentWeight": 0.2025518341307815, "projectedSaves": 22.48200444698074, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.7943862078824284, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-26", "basis": "Full-game start; 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